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TUESDAY, MAY 26, 2020
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JAMES SMITH
IMF’s $252m loan ‘prudent and logical’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net A FORMER finance minister yesterday backed the government’s move to obtain a $252m “emergency” loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as “a very prudent and logical thing to do”. James Smith, who held the post during the first Christie administration, told Tribune Business he was “glad” the Ministry of Finance had chosen to act now in obtaining the lowcost financing rather than wait until The Bahamas’ foreign currency reserves came under sustained pressure. Pointing to the low 1.054 percent interest rate attached to the loan, he said it was critical for The Bahamas to have access to such relatively cheap foreign currency borrowings given that the COVID19 pandemic had brought the country’s main export earner - tourism - to a standstill. Mr Smith also supported the government line that the $252m borrowing, which is likely to be approved by the IMF’s board in early June, is not part of any “structural adjustment” initiative where the Fund would impose a variety of austerity measures on The Bahamas as a condition for providing such financing. Rather than the IMF forcing this nation to raise taxes, slash spending and cut the public service down to size, the former finance minister said the loan facility now being sought by the government was effectively being raised against The Bahamas’ own “shares” in the Washington DC based organisation. Mr Smith’s reaction contrasts sharply with that of Chester Cooper, the opposition’s deputy leader and finance spokesman, who yesterday argued that the government’s move is taking The Bahamas into
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Bahamas facing ‘eye popping’ 100% debt By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net
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HE Bahamas faces the “eye popping” prospect that the national debt will equal or exceed the size of its economy come June 2021, a University of The Bahamas (UoB) economics lecturer warned last night. Rupert Pinder told Tribune Business that the Bahamian economy’s COVID-19 contraction, combined with government borrowings of more than $1bn to both cover its financial holes and stimulate the economy, would likely leave the country “on the cusp” of a 100 percent debt-toGDP ratio at the end of the upcoming fiscal year. With there being “no alternative” but for the government to borrow heavily in the short-term, Mr Pinder argued that “the real tale of the tape” in terms of how badly the pandemic has damaged the economy and government finances will only emerge when the 2020-2021 fiscal year is closed.
• To equal size of economy come 2021 • Borrowings of over $1bn projected • Downgrade fears voiced for FDI However, he said Hurricane Dorian and COVID-19 had only “exposed the cracks in the foundation” caused by the fiscal profligacy of successive administrations in continually expanding the size of governments and running deficits worth hundreds of millions of dollars every year. Pointing out that these two events cannot be held solely responsible for The Bahamas’ increasingly perilous fiscal position, Mr Pinder described tomorrow’s budget as “a watershed moment for the country” given the critical need to set out an economic and fiscal recovery plan that will put it back on track. He also voiced concern that the recent downgrade of The Bahamas’ creditworthiness by Standard & Poor’s (S&P), and the threatened similar action by Moody’s, could undermine investor confidence in this
nation and deter foreign direct investment (FDI) at the moment it is most needed to replace the foreign currency inflows that have dried up as a result of the tourism shutdown. Mr Pinder said there were limits on the government’s ability to undertake massive borrowings in support of an expansionary fiscal policy, especially in Bahamian dollars, because the country’s status as a non-producer that relies on imports for virtually all its consumption meant these funds would ultimately leak out via such spending and impose even greater pressure on already-strained foreign reserves. Suggesting that this will effectively as a ‘cap’, to some extent, in limiting the government’s borrowing, the UoB economics teacher’s grim debt-to-GDP and near-term projections matched those of James Smith, the former finance
THE closure of Luciano’s restaurant, and loss of 72 jobs, makes it “even more critical to open our tourism industry as rapidly as possible”, a Cabinet minister said yesterday. Dionisio D’Aguilar, minister of tourism and aviation, speaking after George Myers’ Restaurant Services Ltd confirmed the East Bay Street location will be closing permanently, warned that COVID-19’s economic fall-out was likely to claim more “casualties” in the private sector. Acknowledging that businesses were likely to find it ever more difficult to survive the longer lockdown restrictions remain in place, Mr D’Aguilar told Tribune Business: “It’s incredibly unfortunate that such a world-famous brand as Luciano’s decided
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Luciano’s operator gives ‘more casualties’ warning By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net THE operator of Luciano’s yesterday warned that COVID-19 will claim “more casualties” in the Bahamian dine-in restaurant industry after the pandemic put “the final nail in the coffin” for the business and its 72 employees. Ash Henderson, marketing director for George Myers’ Restaurant Services Ltd, told Tribune Business via e-mailed replies to this newspaper’s questions that maintaining profitability will be “extremely challenging” for the industry due to the social distancing protocols it will have to adopt. This will likely reduce the number of seats, tables and customers allowed in a restaurant at any one time, immediately reducing business volumes and revenues for an industry that traditionally operates on thin margins.
• Confirms closure with 72 jobs lost • COVID-19 ‘final nail in the coffin’ • ‘Losses mounting’ pre-pandemic
CLOSED gates at Luciano’s. Speaking after the East Bay Street location’s permanent closure was confirmed, Mr Henderson said: “With the slim margins
Photo: Shawn Hanna/Tribune Staff that the industry operates under, restaurants only survive by filling as many of their seats and tables as possible. If the reality
Luciano’s closure makes tourism start ‘more critical’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net
minister and Central Bank governor, who also told this newspaper on Monday that the former ratio is likely to hit 100 percent by June 2021. With K Peter Turnquest, deputy prime minister, having recently revealed that the government is now projecting an $800m fiscal deficit for the current 2019-2020 full fiscal year, Mr Pinder said this “gives you an indication of the magnitude” of the fiscal fallout given that the period includes a full quarter of COVID-19. Acknowledging that much depends on when the Bahamian economy re-opens, and tourism restarts, he argued that even if “a semblance of normality” returns by October this year The Bahamas “could be looking at a budget deficit of around $1bn when everything is tallied by the end of the year”.
• Minister: COVID-19 to claim more corporate victims • Businesses burning cash in struggle to survive • Customer volumes won’t rebound instantly
DIONISIO D’AGUILAR to close its doors. For any business that feels that’s necessary as a result of COVID-19 that’s an incredibly unfortunate outcome. “That is why it’s even more critical to try and open our tourism industry
as quickly as possible. The longer the pandemic goes on, the greater the cash burn rate while you are closed, and the higher the failure rate of businesses. “It’s just incredibly unfortunate this pandemic came upon us, and incredibly unfortunate that businesses are becoming casualties. Whether I expect more or not will be a function of how long the shutdown persists, and how long it takes for business to return.” Mr D’Aguilar, himself a businessman before entering Parliament and ministerial office, said many Bahamian companies are being drained by recurring costs such as rent and electricity that must be paid
even if they are closed. He added that even those with “little pots of money in savings” were finding it hard to cope with this, keeping key staff on payroll and assisting those furloughed with no revenues being earned. “There is a cash burn rate, your revenues are zero and you are going through your savings to try and get to the other side of the pandemic,” the minister added. “When the economy open up, and your business opens up, is one date, and the date customers return is another. “The date of re-opening is one hurdle and, to be able to tide yourself over until a decent amount of
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of post-COVID-19 life is increased social distancing then it’s going to become
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$3.23 B$ devaluation ‘not on horizon’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net DEVALUATION of the Bahamian dollar “is not on the horizon at all”, a former Central Bank governor said yesterday, adding that the country’s all-important foreign reserves have several protective mechanisms around them. James Smith, also a former finance minister, told Tribune Business that pressures on the Bahamian dollar’s one:one peg with the US dollar were unlike to emerge “in the immediate term” even though the tourism shutdown has made finding an alternative source to replenish the foreign currency reserves arguably the country’s greatest economic challenge. He added that a resumption of tourism was likely “not long in coming”, given the prime minister’s ambition to open The Bahamas’ borders “on or before July 1”, with the critical issue being the revival of confidence among international travellers. “Once that happens, the economy will open up and we will get foreign currency from our major sector, tourism,” Mr Smith said. “The thing is all we have to is continue borrowing foreign currency with the understanding that when we re-open we’ll have to pay it back. Otherwise we’re going to suffocate our economy.” Noting that the foreign reserves remained at a relatively high $2.033bn going into April 2020, he added that the tourism shutdown and wider COVID-19 lockdown had initiated a self-correcting mechanism to some extent. Mr Smith explained that The Bahamas’ food import bill had dropped as a result of there being no visitors to feed, while the spike in unemployment and lost income as a result of the pandemic-enforced lockdown also meant that Bahamian demand for goods and services from abroad had also dropped. This, the former finance minister said, meant that foreign currency outflows were being reduced at the same time as inflows disappeared. This will help to minimise the pressure on the foreign reserves, and helps to explain why they remained above $2bn going into April despite the pandemic shutdown. The Central Bank is projecting that the foreign currency reserves will
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