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Don’t be frightened off WTO reform package By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

HE Bahamas must not allow “vested interests and nationalism” to deter it from breaking out of decade-long “stagnation” via broad-based economic reform, a trade expert urged yesterday. Ramesh Chaitoo, who co-authored the Oxford Economics report on full World Trade Organisation (WTO) membership’s likely impact on The Bahamas, told Tribune Business this nation faces significant internal pressures to maintain its economic status quo. Yet he argued that there was abundant evidence to show The Bahamas is not generating sufficient GDP growth and new jobs through a narrow economic model that has largely

Manufacturers’ 100% tariffs are WTO ‘non-starter’ By NEIL HARTNELL and NATARIO McKENZIE Tribune Business Reporters THE push by Bahamian manufacturers’ to raise protectionist tariffs to up to 100 percent before these rates become binding is a “nonstarter” with the WTO, a trade expert warned yesterday. Ramesh Chaitoo, who co-authored the Oxford Economics study on full World Trade Organisation (WTO) membership’s impact on the Bahamian economy, said that increasing these tariffs during the accession negotiations to better defend local producers “won’t fly”. He told Tribune Business, though, that maintaining existing tariff rates on the 250 product types that compete directly with Bahamian manufacturers was “doable” and could be achieved while still

SEE PAGE 4

• Bahamas has to break ten-year ‘stagnation’ • Broad-based change, with WTO, needed • Chamber chief: ‘An urgent call to action’

RAMESH CHAITOO

LLOYD BARTON

remained unchanged for 60 years. Traditionally reliant on tourism and financial services as its key economic drivers, Mr Chaitoo said The Bahamas and other international financial centres (IFCs) cannot expect to maintain their current business models given the insatiable appetite of

developed countries for tax dollars. The trade policy specialist warned that “a lot of vested interests and nationalism want to keep the same old, same old, but the economy has stagnated for some time so you need other means to stimulate growth”. The Oxford Economics report, released

yesterday, said it appeared “low growth rates have become the ‘new norm’ for the Bahamian economy”, pointing out that average annual GDP expansion between 20112017 averaged a mere 0.6 percent. This represented a “marked slowdown” from the 3.1 percent growth rates achieved prior to the 20082009 financial crisis. “Traditional growth engines of tourism and financial services have been struggling and unemployment remains stubbornly high,” the report added, despite the double-digit growth in both stopover

SEE PAGE 6

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‘Manageable’: WTO revenue loss pegged at $110m-$130m By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net REVENUE losses from WTO-related import tariff cuts are “manageable”, a Chamber of Commercecommissioned study revealed yesterday, standing at between $110m-$130m per year. The Oxford Economics consultancy, in a comprehensive report that analyses the likely impact of full World Trade Organisation (WTO) membership on the Bahamian economy, nudged this nation towards proceeding with the accession by finding that the “net impact” will “be moderately positive”. The study, which assessed two accession scenarios, largely dispelled fears that the need for lower or eliminated tariffs on many imports would result in new and/or increased taxes being imposed on Bahamian businesses and consumers. VAT will likely remain at the 12 percent it was hiked to in the 2018-2019 budget to compensate the

Govt investment control ‘will not fly’ under WTO By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net THE Bahamas may have to release the government’s stranglehold over the foreign investment approvals process in return for higher tariffs that protect domestic producers under WTO. Authors of the Oxford Economics study on how full World Trade Organisation (WTO) membership will likely impact the Bahamian economy, which was released yesterday, told Tribune Business that the current regime was “not going to fly” with other countries in a rulesbased, liberalised trading environment. But Ramesh Chaitoo, one of the co-authors, said such a tariff “trade-off” could ultimately boost the Bahamian economy by removing an “opaque” approvals process that likely deters some investors due to the lack of transparency. Describing The Bahamas’ foreign investment approvals process as

• May be ‘trade-off’ for tariff protection • ‘No one in Western Hemisphere’ has this lock • US demanding audio-visual opening up “unlike any country in the Western Hemisphere”, the trade policy specialist nevertheless indicated that reducing government control could be a relatively easy concession to make in WTO negotiations if it was required to protect local manufacturers and farmers. “As you well know, it is not really clear what the terms of engagement are in The Bahamas in any sector,” Mr Chaitoo said, apart from those industries currently reserved for Bahamian ownership only under the National Investment Policy. While foreign investors always expected to encounter “upfront costs” when entering any overseas market, he said those coming to The Bahamas could never be sure whether their projects will ultimately be approved

by the National Economic Council (NEC) or Investments Board because the “rules of the game” are not clearly defined. “It’s unlike any country in the Western Hemisphere that the government decides what investment will be here,” Mr Chaitoo told Tribune Business. “Market forces do that. “Here the initial [WTO] offer of The Bahamas seeks to meet the economic needs test. That’s not going to fly. The US and most other countries will not accept that. It’s not part of what a market economy is.” The Bahamas’ current offer maintains the investment approvals status quo, where the government must approve all foreign direct investment (FDI) proposals worth $500,000 or more. Mr Chaitoo, and the Oxford Economics report,

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government for reduced tariff income. With the $360m in unfunded arrears likely to be paid-off by the government by the time the tariff rate reductions start to kick-in, the Oxford Economics study said there were significant political factors mitigating against further taxes. Analysing what would happen if The Bahamas joined WTO without enacting broad-based policy reforms to improve the cost and ease of doing business in the domestic economy, the report said the reduction/elimination of tariff rates would be partially offset by increased import volumes as goods became cheaper. “The negative impact is dampened to the extent that import volumes increase relative to baseline levels,” the Oxford Economics finds said. “Once the economy has adjusted to the new trading environment, actual losses would moderate to around 45 percent of [tariff] revenues, equating to a shortfall of around $130m

SEE PAGE 5

‘Trade imbalances’ may require fixed exchange review By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

yesterday recommended that this nation restrict such an “economic needs test” to specific sectors rather than “across the board”. These would be the resorts, real estate and financial services investments that The Bahamas typically attracts, as well as industries such as telecommunications that are important on national security grounds. “The second part is it’s not codified, not clear and not spelled out; the terms of engagement are opaque,” he told Tribune Business. “You may have to trade that off to keep tariffs that are reasonably high.” The Oxford Economics report said the government’s near “total control” of the foreign investment approvals process was more akin to

WIDENING “trade imbalances” may require The Bahamas to assess the merits of the fixed exchange rate that underpins the one:one US dollar peg postWTO, a study suggested yesterday. Oxford Economics, in a Bahamas Chamber of Commerce-commissioned study on full World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) potential impact on the Bahamian economy, forecasts that imports will increase postWTO accession as the lowering/elimination of many import tariffs makes them relatively cheaper for businesses and consumers. With exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows unable to fully compensate for the drawdown on foreign currency to purchase these items,

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PAGE 2, Wednesday, May 8, 2019

THE TRIBUNE

CAR RENTAL START-UP’S $200K CAPITAL BOOST AN ELECTRIC car rental start-up has attracted $200,000 in financial backing with help from the Access Accelerator Small Business Development Centre (SBDC). The SBDC, in a release yesterday, said it had assisted Drive Green The Bahamas in obtaining two debt financing offers from local banks in addition to grant and equity funding. The firm joined the SBDC to obtain access to the government grants it provided. With its assistance, Benjamin Davis, chief executive and founder of Drive Green Rentals, was able to go beyond this and obtain three financing sources for his business. The soon-to-be University of The Bahamas graduate said: “It’s definitely a proud moment, and I am very excited. The dreams that I have inside of

BENJAMIN DAVIS WITH DEPUTY PM KP TURNQUEST my head, I will love to see them come to fruition with now having access to the funding. “We can now expand to where we need to be with sorting out charging stations, getting additional cars, an office space and more. That’s the most exciting part of it; being able to turn these dreams into reality.” Mr Davis said he would encourage any entrepreneur

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to join the SBDC, adding: “Rome was not built in a day. That may sound cliché, but it’s true. You have to have patience and understand that you’re not going to join on Monday and, seven days [later], you have money in your hand. “The biggest lesson I’ve learned from the SBDC is the strength and the value of having a team. You are now able to work with other persons who are like-minded, able to get other opinions and even be exposed to other entrepreneurs through the programme. They are now persons I call family. So, just being able to have that connection and that networking is extremely beneficial.” Phyllice Bethel, SBDC advisor to Drive Green Bahamas, said: “As an advisor, I feel encouraged because it is not an easy process for a client to go through. It’s a process where their ideas are scrutinised; not just by me but by other advisors or anybody who attends Pitch Night. “To see them having to tweak, re-tweak and tweak their ideas some more. Then be rewarded at the end with, first the endorsement of the SBDC and, ultimately, the reward of funding, makes me feel good. I can now use (Drive Green Rentals) as an example to other clients to show that today you may feel like it is a lot of work, but in the end this will be worth it.” The SBDC is the product of a tripartite arrangement between the government,

DRIVE Green’s founder, Benjamin Davis, with his first fleet of electric cars.

University of The Bahamas (UB) and the Bahamas Chamber of Commerce and Employer’s Confederation (BCCEC). Mr Davis began his business plan in his Entrepreneurship 407 class. When the Ministry of Finance made the SBDC a reality, he was well-placed to take advantage of the opportunity. K Peter Turnquest, deputy prime minister and minister of finance, said Drive Green Rentals’ early success was evidence that Bahamians can take control of their own economic destinies. “When you see a gem come along that is interested in self-development and creating opportunities, it makes us all as leaders very proud,” said Mr Turnquest. “It says that all

is not lost, A, and B, that we as Bahamians have the opportunity to create our opportunities. To cut a new path and to take more control of our economic circumstances.” He added that he wants to see electric cars used as the prime means of rental transportation in The Bahamas. “This is what it is all about,” said Mr Turnquest. “I want to see him at every airport throughout this country and [electric cars] being the predominant rental vehicles in this country. When we first started the SBDC one of the things I said I wanted to do was to create millionaires, and [Mr Davis] is well on the way.” Davinia Blair, the SBDC’s executive director,

said Drive Green Rentals’ success reflected the hard work of her staff. “This achievement is a testament to the hard work invested by both members and clients of the SBDC,” she said. “The best news is that this is just the beginning. We have businesses who have already been approved for equity investments of $130,000 and grant funding of $46,800. “Several other clients are on the path to officially receiving loans. Successes like Benjamin’s further motivates us to continue to do our part in growing, strengthening and enhancing micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).”

THE TRIBUNE

Wednesday, May 8, 2019, PAGE 3

WTO ‘NO CURE’ FOR STRUCTURAL WOES

By NATARIO MCKENZIE

somehow cure the economy of all its structural problems,” said Mr Barton. “I think what the modelling shows is that WTO accession on its own would be beneficial for the economy, but moderately so. If you really want to get the full benefits from WTO accession then domestic policy reforms make the economy more competitive. “That goes beyond just WTO. The economy itself has a number of structural bottlenecks which are holding back growth, and really what is needed is a kind of decisive policy reform of which WTO accession will be one element to really unlock growth going forward.” Mr Barton continued: “I think the best approach is

for these things to go hand in hand. It’s possible to have similar reforms which aren’t part of WTO membership, but the thing is the WTO framework makes you commit on an international basis to keep these reforms in place and really sort of commit the government going forward to maintain a business friendly environment. That’s one of the reasons why it would be beneficial and not subject to changes in government. Ramesh Chaitoo, a trade and development expert who helped to produce the report, said: “It’s really about three things; transparency, accountability and predictably, of which you have very little here now to be honest. “It is difficult to do

business for a whole host of reasons; the cost of doing business, the time takes to register a business. If you look at the Bahamian economy and its regulatory infrastructure, is it geared up for the digital world? It is not. It’s telecoms is still C-minus at best. I don’t care who says what. It is extremely high cost. “I sit at home in Brussels and my speed to the house is allegedly 100 megabits per second. What would that cost a home here? Is it affordable? The new value-added in the world will be in online digital-related things. No one is paying attention to that here. Do you have in place all the mechanisms, legal mechanisms, to do online business, electronic

signatures, protection online. Is intellectual property protected in the digital medium? That’s the discourse that The Bahamas needs to get into quickly.” Mr Chaitoo also suggested that The Bahamas revisit its policy on investment incentives to attract major foreign developers. “Look at the concessions, if you want to know what it does. To get these big investments you have to give away a lot to entice people to come,” he added. “By the time all the concessions are given, what happens? There will be ‘x’ amount of jobs but that’s it. Then the big investor pays no taxes for 30 years. Is that sensible in 2019? When you’re in a no corporate tax

jurisdiction, what do you get from these firms?” Mr Chaitoo also suggested that The Bahamas look at its immigration policies regarding certain persons entering the country. “In the case of your business regime, I think it is necessary to review what you call visitors in The Bahamas because a lot of people face issues coming into The Bahamas to just conduct business meetings and communicate with people who have businesses here already,” he added. “The procedures around entry of business persons, that causes a lot of problems. You don’t want to make access or the basic entry experience terrible.”

ENACT CONTRACTORS ACT PRE-WTO, EXPERT URGES

Mr Chaitoo, one of the authors behind the Chamber of Commercecommissioned report that assesses WTO’s likely impact on the Bahamian economy, said: “The offer at the WTO is really for the more sophisticated, difficult type of construction. “That is notwithstanding the fact that the regime of rules, and the regulatory regime for the sector, needs to be implemented soon, and I’m not sure why the law has not yet been assented to.” The “regulation” Mr Chaitoo was referring to is almost certainly the Construction Contractors Act, which promises to yield significant benefits for the industry, consumers and the wider Bahamian economy if it functions as intended.

The Act when implemented, will introduce a system of licensing and selfregulation, where Bahamian contractors are certified according to their qualifications and scale/scope of work they are capable of undertaking. This would place them on a “level playing field” with foreign contractors, enabling them to better compete for multi-million dollar contracts on foreign direct investment (FDI) projects that come to The Bahamas because their capabilities are certified. It will also give consumers greater protection. Leonard Sands, the former Bahamian Contractors Association (BCA) president, had warned it was “critical to our survival” under WTO for

the government to finally enact regulation of the $2bn industry. He suggested it was “beyond urgent” that the Act be enforced, as the absence of regulation left the industry totally exposed to being overwhelmed by foreign competition come 2020 if the

government’s WTO accession target is met. Current BCA president, Michael Pratt, told Tribune Business that the industry did have concerns over WTO’s implications for the sector and had expressed these in writing to the Oxford Economics consultants.

Tribune Business Reporter

nmckenzie@tribunemedia.net FULL World Trade Organisation (WTO) membership is not a “silver bullet” to cure all the Bahamian economy’s structural problems, trade experts warned yesterday. Lloyd Barton, head of global trade services at Oxford Economics, speaking at the release of its Bahamas Chamber of Commerce-commissioned report on WTO’s likely impact on the Bahamian economy, arguing that domestic policy reforms were essential to realising the “full benefits” of membership in the trade rules setter. “WTO is not going to

By NATARIO MCKENZIE

Tribune Business Reporter

nmckenzie@tribunemedia.net A TRADE expert yesterday backed local calls for the Construction Contractors Bill to be implemented in time for The Bahamas’ accession to full World Trade Organisation (WTO) membership. Ramesh Chaitoo, a trade and development expert with Oxford Economics, said: “The sectors that have been around for quite some time and are well regulated, they are fine. The financial sector, insurance sector, tourism, professional

EY SUMMIT FOCUSES ON FINANCIAL CRIME BATTLE THE EY Bahamas accounting firm last week hosted its inaugural seminar on strategies for combating financial crime. The event, which took place at the Grand Hyatt Baha Mar, brought together top executives to discuss the most pressing challenges relating to financial crime compliance, as well as the current state of innovation; emerging solutions; and what the next generation of compliance strategies looks like. Steve Beattie, EY’s global financial crime operations and advisory leader, offered insights on best practices

services; they have regulatory regimes that protect consumers and the professionals. “They have rules and regulations to govern industry and they are OK. There is law from 2018, with regards to construction, but it appears that it is not yet in place. The recommendation in the report is that if you open the construction sector, whichever segments of it you open, just make sure that this is implemented in time or subject the opening to that law being in place. That’s basically it.”

FROM left: Igal Wizman; Tiffany Norris-Pilcher; Dan Scott; K Peter Turnquest, deputy prime minister; Steve Beattie; Michele Thompson, EY Bahamas country managing partner and regional assurance leader; LaNishka Farrington-McSweeney. through his experience in “Complex sanction regulatory expectations regimes, cross-border payaround the world. Tiffany ments and virtual currencies Norris-Pilcher, EY partner are creating ample opportuand regional emerging man- nities for financial crime to ager platform leader, and proliferate, and executives LaNishka Farrington- are turning to innovation McSweeney, EY partner and and technology to help curb regional anti-money laun- crime and keep in line with dering solutions leader, regulations. The Bahamas moderated the conversation. is fostering innovation and “The inaugural event was digital transformation in a a huge success because it well-regulated and worldcentered on a topic which class business environment, is top of mind for c-suite and is dedicated to fighting executives,” said Michele financial crime.” Thompson, EY’s BahaExecutives also had the mas managing partner and opportunity to participate regional assurance leader. in dialogue on successful

anti-financial crime innovation strategies, and the challenges financial institutions face in regulating crime. “When we speak about financial crime compliance, we know that competing demands – including cost pressures while trying to meet the bottom line – are forcing leaders to address compliance challenges in new and innovative ways,” said Mrs Norris-Pilcher.

PAGE 4, Wednesday, May 8, 2019

THE TRIBUNE

Manufacturers’ 100% tariffs are WTO ‘non-starter’ FROM PAGE ONE

meeting the 15 percent average tariff rates demanded by the world’s rules-based trading regime overseer. Mr Chaitoo said the key to accomplishing such an objective will be to “disaggregate” what Bahamas-bound exports are important to the US, as many of the 250 tariff lines key to this nation may not merit such attention from Washington DC. The Oxford Economics report warned that the US typically seeks to drive a hard bargain on tariffs when it comes to trade negotiations, wanting all non-agricultural rates to be lowered to 15 percent. However, the trade policy specialist revealed “that is not necessarily how it plays out”. “It’s doable,” Mr Chaitoo said of The Bahamas’ dual objective. “You can get an average tariff rate of 15 percent by maintaining some

of those 250 tariff lines, but you have to bind those rates - you legally commit not to increase them in the future” after becoming a full WTO member. He told this newspaper it would be a “non-starter” to seek to further increase existing tariff rates before they became “bound” in the WTO talks, adding that the government would likely factor in other considerations such as “efficiency gains in the economy and “value for consumers”. “Things are expensive enough as it is,” Mr Chaitoo said. Earlier, addressing a three-hour Bahamas Chamber of Commerce and Employers Confederation (BCCEC) event to present the Oxford Economics report, he had said: “When you talk to people individually they seem to be more realistic and more rationale about it. When you read the stuff in the press it sounds like they’re totally scared and it’s Godzilla. I think

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somewhere in between there is a more sensible line. “Some of the manufacturing sectors suggested that the bound tariff, which is the tariff you promise not to go higher than in the WTO; the suggestion was that you increase the bound rates higher - in some cases from 45 percent to 75 percent, and one or two close to 100. That is not going to fly. “I think you can escape by at least binding your current applied rates in the sensitive sectors, and that should be enough to get you in. Increasing your rates from 45 to 75 percent on things like bleach and so on, I don’t think there would be any positive sentiments to that in any sector anywhere in the world.” The Oxford Economics report said that despite being largely a servicesoriented economy, the “real challenge” for The Bahamas in the WTO accession negotiations will be its binding tariff rates and demands from other countries that some be reduced. “While it is a services economy, the real challenge for The Bahamas in WTO accession negotiations is trade in goods, particularly tariff bindings and reductions,” the study confirmed. “If not properly calibrated, these could negatively affect the manufacturing and agriculture sectors and lead to unemployment, since the local firms will not be able to withstand full competition. It is likely that Bahamian

negotiators may have to trade-off concessions on the investment front in order to keep tariffs higher than what has been the norm in recent accessions.” The Oxford Economics report added WTO accession negotiations have “become increasingly difficult” for new applicants such as The Bahamas especially those smaller and lesser developed countries that have limited bargaining power. The likes of Montenegro, Seychelles and Vanuatu were all required “to make significant market opening commitments”, especially on tariff rates, as the price of accession. However, the study recommended that The Bahamas emphasise its vulnerability to external economic shocks and climate change (hurricanes) in a bid to obtain sympathy for its position. The Bahamas had 329 manufacturing companies in 2015, according to United Nations (UN) data, and the Oxford Economics report said: “The products important to the manufacturing and agriculture sector account for only about 250 tariff lines out of a maximum of about 5,000. So, in principle The Bahamas should safeguard these from liberalisation or reduction if the maintenance of local jobs in the Bahamian economy is an important objective of the government. “But increasing some of the tariffs to the levels

NOTICE is hereby given that all persons having any claims against or any interest in the above-named Estate are required, on or before the 7th day of June A.D., 2019 to deliver their names and addresses along with proof of their debts, claims or interest to the undersigned, and if so required by notice in writing from the undersigned, to come in and prove such debts, claims or interest, or in default thereof they will be excluded from the benefit of any distribution AND all persons indebted to the said Estate are asked to pay their respective debts to the undersigned immediately. AND NOTICE is hereby given that at the expiration of the date mentioned above, the assets of the Estate of the late Alexander Deveaux also known as Alexander Rudolph Deveaux a.k.a. Rudolph Deveaux, deceased will be distributed among the persons entitled thereto having regard only to the claims of which the Personal Representatives shall have had notice. Dated this 8th day of May, A.D., 2019 Leslie Vernon Rolle Chambers 19 Clarke’s Lane, off Mackey Street Nassau, Bahamas

told Tribune Business that he had yet to see any other countries object to The Bahamas’ tariff-quota proposal for agricultural products, which would lower and increase rates based on whether imported product had exceeded, or was below, a set volume. This, he added, would ensure tariff-quota rates were aligned with consumer demand and seasonal production. Several attendees yesterday questioned why The Bahamas needed to join the WTO, and at this time. “The necessity of WTO I don’t I understand. I’ve heard great suggestions about structural reforms, but I’m missing that nexus between why are we joining and what The Bahamas needs to do to move forward,” said accountant John Bain. Mr Chaitoo replied: “One clear thing accession will do, if The Bahamas joins, is it will make procedures, requirements and processes for all business transparent, consistent. Those are very important in any environment.” Lloyd Barton, head of global trade services at Oxford Economics, said: “There are positives to joining the WTO” after attorney Fayne Thompson, a member of Bahamians Agitating for a Referendum on Free Trade (BARF), also questioned the need to join.

Govt investment control ‘will not fly’ under WTO FROM PAGE ONE a centrally-planned economy that is typically found in communist states as opposed to one governed

by market forces. It said: “Bahamian negotiators may have to trade off concessions on the investment front in order to keep tariffs higher to

NOTICE In the Estate of Alexander Deveaux also known as Alexander Rudolph Deveaux a.k.a. Rudolph Deveaux late, of Soldier Road East, New Providence, Bahamas, deceased.

proposed by the Bahamas Light Industries Development Council (60100 percent) before binding them will be difficult to defend in WTO accession negotiations. “Nevertheless, bound tariffs in that range for agricultural products, particularly fishery products like conch and lobster and popular varieties of fish in a small island economy like The Bahamas should be defensible as they are essential to food security and local diet and local culture.” The report added: “It is therefore recommended that an attempt be made to get to the 15 percent simple average non-agricultural market access (NAMA) tariff that seems to be the basic entry requirement for accession nowadays while keeping the 250 tariff lines out of the liberalisation package. “The bottom-line negotiating position should be to bind them at the current applied rates. And it would be advisable to phase in over a three to five-year period the tariffs on some of the other products that are major revenue generators for the government. “It will be difficult to sell this proposal to the US, but given local sensitivities in The Bahamas these should be considered negotiating ‘red lines’. If not, the political economy costs of acceding to the WTO may be higher than the short- tomedium term benefits.” Mr Chaitoo, meanwhile,

NOTICE is hereby given that JOCELYNE SILVEST of Wilson Track, Nassau, Bahamas is applying to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, for Registration Naturalization as a citizen of The Bahamas, and that any person who knows any reason why registration/naturalization should not be granted, should send a written and signed statement of the facts within twenty-eight days from the 8th day of May, 2019 to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, P.O. Box N-7147, Nassau, New Providence, The Bahamas. LEGAL NOTICE

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NOTICE is hereby given pursuant to Section 204, subsection (1)(b) of the BVI Business Companies Act, 2004 that the Company is in voluntary liquidation. The voluntary liquidation commenced on 27th March 2019. The Liquidator is Werllenn Glayton Almeida Pereira of Talstrasse 83, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland. Dated 27th March 2019. (Sgd.) Werllenn Glayton Almeida Pereira Voluntary Liquidator

protect employment in domestic manufacturing and agricultural sectors. “While it is common for governments to approve investment projects, it is unlikely that The Bahamas will be allowed to join the WTO with a horizontal economic needs test (ENT) for all investment and a requirement that all foreign investment proposals must be over $500,000. “Furthermore, these requirements are not codified in any law, and there are no objective, published criteria for them... In fact, the almost total control over investment in The Bahamas is more in line with a centrally planned than market economy,” the Oxford Economics report continued. “Normal market signals interpreted by investors such as return on capital, market assessments, etc., seem to be overridden by the government. And it is not clear how its complex process for assessing an investment project is conducted. It is fair to say that there is inadequate transparency or predictability in the Bahamian investment regime.” The study added that no other country, whether it be a small island developing state (SIDS), vulnerable economy or recently-acceded WTO member maintained such a rigid, governmentcontrolled process for all investments. “It is recommended that the Bahamas consider limiting the economic needs test (ENT) to specific services sectors or activities that are considered important for political economy and other reasons, and schedule it in sector-specific commitments,” the Oxford Economics consultants added. “The obvious areas would be hotels and restaurants; real estate development; telecommunications; and perhaps insurance and financial services. The vast majority of large investment proposals approved by the Bahamian government over the past five years are

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in hotel development or real estate anyway. “But the country is an inward-seeking investment location that has had persistent unemployment in the range of ten percent of the workforce for several years. A more flexible investment regime might result in greater investment in more diverse economic activities.” The Oxford Economics report added that the 15 services industries reserved for Bahamian ownership were a “defensible” position in the WTO negotiations, since they were mainly “small scale”, “sensitive” when it came to Bahamian employment, and unlikely to be of much interest to WTO members. These industries include the likes of retail and wholesale; real estate; and media. Elsewhere, the Oxford Economics report recommended that the government’s existing Heads of Agreement with major investors be placed among this nation’s list of Most Favoured Nation (MFN) exemptions to ensure they were not “challenged” by future developers and other WTO members. “The Heads of Agreement (HOA) for existing projects should be included in The Bahamas’ List of MFN exemptions to safeguard them from challenge,” the study said. “This is because some of the provisions in the Heads of Agreement grant preferential treatment to investors and investments, and some agreements stipulate that any treatment that is offered to another investor that is better than an incumbent should be extended to it.” The Oxford Economics report also reveals that the US is demanding The Bahamas make a wide-ranging commitment to open up audio visual services under WTO, which would include films, TV and live theatre productions. “The US has requested a comprehensive offer here and indicated that it is ‘critical to accepting the Bahamian services offer’,” the report reveals. “However, under the EPA (Economic Partnership Agreement with the European Union), The Bahamas, like all other Caribbean countries had to exclude audio-visual from their commitments so it is not feasible for The Bahamas to liberalise audio-visual services in the WTO. This needs to be made clear to the US.”

THE TRIBUNE

Wednesday, May 8, 2019, PAGE 5

‘Manageable’: WTO revenue loss pegged at $110-$130m FROM PAGE ONE based on 2017 values. “Although revenues from tariffs will be significantly reduced, the negative impact [on the fiscal deficit] will be partly offset by higher VAT and excise tax revenues. Our estimates show the widening of the budget deficit peaks at around one percent of GDP in 2021 (equivalent to around $120m based on 2017 values), but the impact subsequently settles at around 0.8 percent of GDP (equivalent to around $90m based on 2017 values). “Hence, while the budget balance deteriorates in this scenario, the headline deficit remains manageable. Importantly, the budget deficit in this scenario is not sufficiently large to push government debt back on to a rising trend (as a share of GDP).” While many Bahamians remain concerned about the prospect of new and/ or increased taxes, the Oxford Economics report added: “Tax behaviour is tempered by local political realities and, in the case of acceding countries, political economy issues and possible demands by WTO members that the acceding member does not increase protectionism through other means.” And the impact on the government’s revenues is even less, the Oxford Economics study shows, if full WTO membership is accompanied by domestic policy reforms that create a more

favourable environment for investment, commerce and job creation. Describing the impact as “more muted”, the report added that this scenario also assumed a phase-in of the tariff cuts/eliminations over a period of three to five years and stronger growth in import volumes. “By the time tariff reductions are fully implemented in 2024, associated revenues are therefore only down by 38 percent, equating to a $110m loss based on 2017 values (compared to $130m in the [other] scenario),” Oxford Economics projected. “The phased implementation period for tariff reductions in the comprehensive reform scenario allows the economy time to adjust, while revenues from other sources also grow more strongly to offset the graduated reduction in tariff revenues. “Moreover, growth in expenditures (as a share of GDP) would be somewhat better contained as a result of policy reforms and more healthy private sector activity levels.” The impact on the government’s fiscal deficit was even better, with the Oxford Economics report finding: “Our estimates show the widening of the budget deficit peaks at around 0.45 percent of GDP in 2024 (equivalent to $53m based on 2017 values). “By the end of the forecast period in 2029, our simulations indicate that the budget deficit has narrowed to just 0.1 percent of GDP, representing only

a moderate deterioration compared to baseline levels. As a share of GDP, government debt levels actually fall compared to our baseline projections, reflecting the larger size of the economy.” Should The Bahamas adopt the recommended more comprehensive reform approach, Oxford Economics estimated it could lift the economy’s long-run average annual GDP growth rate to around two percent - higher than the 1.5 percent currently forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It also projected that this would help slash The Bahamas’ national unemployment rate from its current ten percent to 6.5 percent over the next decade, driving it to its lowest level this century. “The positive effects would quickly build in subsequent years, lifting the average growth rate of the economy to two percent per annum across the forecast, compared with 1.5 percent per annum in the baseline. By the end of the forecast period in 2029, this leaves the economy 5.7 percent larger than baseline levels,” the Oxford Economics study said. Elsewhere, the report recommended that The Bahamas reduce the scope of its offer on legal services to target specific sectors where foreign expertise was necessary. It added that the country might be better served opening the sector to a physical presence by foreign firms (mode

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3) instead of allowing foreign attorneys to come in as individuals (mode 1). “The offer on legal services is relatively broad and liberal, and it includes all legal services,” the Oxford Economics report said. “It is advisable to carefully target particular sub-set of skills for market opening instead of a broad commitment of the whole sector. “For instance, it may be desirable to grant market access in only areas in which there is inadequate skills locally such as international tax law, international law, Fintech law and arbitration.

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“Also, it is unusual for a country to open cross border trade (Mode 1) but not commercial presence. This may not be in the best interest of consumers who might seek legal services from foreigners and have no means of redress in the event of malpractice. From a development perspective,

it is perhaps better to open Mode 3 instead of Mode 1 in legal services.” The Bahamas was also recommended to better define the “presence of natural persons” under WTO, separating the definition of “business visitor” from “key personnel”.

PAGE 6, Wednesday, May 8, 2019 FROM PAGE ONE and total visitor arrivals to The Bahamas during 2018 and 2019 to-date. As for financial services, Mr Chaitoo said he expected the regulatory pressures from the likes of the European Union (EU) - which resulted in The Bahamas last year enacting fundamental changes to its business model - to continue with no end in sight. “I don’t think The Bahamas, Vanuatu or Cayman or other international financial centres can expect this business model to continue,” he told this newspaper. “I live in Brussels, and every day the Europeans, Canadians and US are looking for every tax dollar they can find from corporate and private citizens. “IFCs have to restructure the kinds of business they do, and the smart ones have done it already. Mauritius has done it already, a long time

Don’t be frightened off WTO reform package ago, and they’re doing things other than being a place for foreigners to hide their cash. Barbados is struggling with that to some extent, and The Bahamas will have to rethink at at some point what it does.” While the prime minister had last year met with top EU officials in a bid to further protect the Bahamian financial services industry, Mr Chaitoo said the Europeans were “very firm on this issue” notwithstanding the fact that some of its members

- such as Malta - engaged in exactly the same type of business as the IFCs that Brussels is targeting. The government’s decision to seek full WTO membership by a June 2020 target date has already provoked strong resistance from groups such as Bahamians Agitating for a Referendum on Free Trade (BARF) and Bahamians Against WTO, as well as major private sector figures such as Super Value principal, Rupert Roberts. Several anti-WTO

demonstrations have already taken place, and the Oxford Economics report acknowledged there were “legitimate concerns” about WTO’s impact - especially for Bahamian manufacturers and small businesses that rely on high tariffs for protection against imported rivals. Yet with The Bahamas’ current economic model not yielding sufficient fruit, Mr Chaitoo and his co-author, Lloyd Barton, recommended that joining the WTO be part of a much

NOTICE

NOTICE is hereby given that DANIEL KOBINA NYARKO DONKOH of Penny Lane Stapledon Gardends, P.O. BOX N-8541 Nassau, Bahamas is applying to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, for Registration Naturalization as a citizen of The Bahamas, and that any person who knows any reason why registration/naturalization should not be granted, should send a written and signed statement of the facts within twentyeight days from the 8thday of May, 2019 to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, P.O. Box N-7147, Nassau, New Providence, The Bahamas.

NOTICE is hereby given that JAYRON JEFFREY JEAN, of Marsh Harbour Abaco, Bahamas P.O.Box N- 9426 is applying to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, for Registration Naturalization as a citizen of The Bahamas, and that any person who knows any reason why registration/ naturalization should not be granted, should send a written and signed statement of the facts within twenty-eight days from the 1ST day of May, 2019 to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, P.O. Box N-7147, Nassau, New Providence, The Bahamas.

NOTICE

NOTICE is hereby given that JACKSON NORALUS of Joe Farrington Road, Nassau, Bahamas is applying to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, for Registration Naturalization as a citizen of The Bahamas, and that any person who knows any reason why registration/ naturalization should not be granted, should send a written and signed statement of the facts within twenty-eight days from the 8th day of May, 2019 to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, P.O. Box N-7147, Nassau, New Providence, The Bahamas.

NOTICE is hereby given that STELLA NIKI NTOLLY LIVANOS of Coronis House, Clifton Bay Drive, Lyford Cay, Nassau, Bahamas is applying to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, for Registration Naturalization as a citizen of The Bahamas, and that any person who knows any reason why registration/naturalization should not be granted, should send a written and signed statement of the facts within twenty-eight days from the 8th day of May, 2019 to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, P.O. Box N-7147, Nassau, New Providence, The Bahamas.

MARKET REPORT www.bisxbahamas.com

(242) 323-2330

TUESDAY, 7 MAY 2019

(242) 323-2320

ALL SHARE INDEX: CLOSE: 2,169.67 | CHG: 0.02 | %CHG: 0.00 | YTD: 60.22 | YTD%: 2.85 BISX LISTED & TRADED SECURITIES 52WK HI 4.50 20.91 7.00 5.50 2.50 1.98 3.35 11.00 6.16 4.64 12.50 2.74 1.96 9.02 7.00 15.60 7.25 4.25 14.00

52WK LOW 3.50 19.17 4.90 3.50 1.00 0.19 2.00 8.85 6.11 3.54 10.00 2.30 1.50 7.25 6.10 10.10 6.20 3.01 12.51

PREFERENCE SHARES 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00

1.00 103.00 100.00 100.00 105.00 103.00 100.00 10.00 1.01

1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00

1.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 10.00 1.00

SECURITY AML Foods Limited APD Limited Bahamas Property Fund Bahamas Waste Bank of Bahamas Benchmark Cable Bahamas CIBC FirstCaribbean Bank Colina Holdings Commonwealth Bank Commonwealth Brewery Consolidated Water BDRs Doctor's Hospital Emera Incorporated Famguard Fidelity Bank Finco Focol J. S. Johnson Cable Bahamas Series 6 Cable Bahamas Series 8 Cable Bahamas Series 9 Cable Bahamas Series 10 Colina Holdings Class A Commonwealth Bank Class Commonwealth Bank Class Commonwealth Bank Class Commonwealth Bank Class Commonwealth Bank Class Commonwealth Bank Class Fidelity Bank Class A Focol Class B

SYMBOL AML APD BPF BWL BOB BBL CAB CIB CHL CBL CBB CWCB DHS EMAB FAM FBB FIN FCL JSJ

E J K L M N

CORPORATE DEBT - (percentage pricing) 52WK HI 100.00

52WK LOW 100.00

115.92 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 ##########

104.79 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

CAB6 CAB8 CAB9 CAB10 CHLA CBLE CBLJ CBLK CBLL CBLM CBLN FBBA FCLB

SECURITY Fidelity Bank Note 22 (Series B) +

SYMBOL FBB22

Bahamas Note 6.95 (2029) BGS: 2015-1-3Y BGS: 2014-12-5Y BGS: 2015-1-5Y BGS: 2014-12-7Y BGS: 2015-1-7Y BGS: 2014-12-30Y BGS: 2015-1-30Y BGS: 2015-6-3Y BGS: 2015-6-5Y BGS: 2015-6-7Y BGS: 2015-6-30Y BGS: 2015-10-3Y BGS: 2015-10-5Y BGS: 2015-10-7Y

BAH29 BG0203 BG0105 BG0205 BG0107 BG0207 BG0130 BG0230 BG0303 BG0305 BG0307 BG0330 BG0403 BG0405 BG0407

BAHAMAS GOVERNMENT STOCK - (percentage pricing)

LAST CLOSE 4.07 17.43 6.00 5.39 2.47 1.98 2.01 10.94 6.16 4.47 10.00 2.59 1.79 9.14 7.00 15.57 7.25 3.50 14.00

CLOSE 4.07 17.43 6.00 5.39 2.47 1.98 2.01 10.94 6.16 4.47 10.00 2.58 1.79 9.18 7.00 15.57 7.25 3.50 14.00

CHANGE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 10.00 1.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

CLOSE 100.00

CHANGE 0.00

107.31 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

LAST SALE 100.00 107.31 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

VOLUME 200

3,124 170,000

VOLUME

EPS$ 0.167 0.932 -0.306 0.323 0.098 0.000 -0.431 0.708 0.480 0.154 0.627 0.102 0.209 0.000 0.636 0.834 0.950 0.205 0.631

DIV$ 0.130 1.260 0.000 0.240 0.000 0.020 0.000 0.710 0.220 0.120 0.620 0.068 0.060 0.328 0.240 0.500 0.200 0.090 0.600

P/E 24.4 18.7 N/M 16.7 N/M N/M -4.7 15.5 12.8 29.0 15.9 25.3 8.6 N/M 11.0 18.7 7.6 17.1 22.2

YIELD 3.19% 7.23% 0.00% 4.45% 0.00% 1.01% 0.00% 6.49% 3.57% 2.68% 6.20% 2.64% 3.35% 3.57% 3.43% 3.21% 2.76% 2.57% 4.29%

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 7.00% 6.50%

INTEREST Prime + 1.75%

MATURITY 19-Oct-2022

6.95% 4.00% 4.25% 4.25% 4.50% 4.50% 6.25% 6.25% 4.00% 4.25% 4.50% 6.25% 3.50% 3.88% 4.25%

############### 30-Jul-2018 ############### 30-Jul-2020 ############### 30-Jul-2022 ############### 30-Jul-2045 26-Jun-2018 26-Jun-2020 26-Jun-2022 26-Jun-2045 15-Oct-2018 15-Oct-2020 15-Oct-2022

YTD% 12 MTH% 0.32% 3.95% 0.62% 3.20% 0.69% 2.56% 2.06% 4.97% 4.52% 0.96% 1.15% 4.41% 0.59% 4.31% 0.92% 4.16% 2.79% 4.80% -1.08% 1.77% -5.96% -3.05% 1.90% 4.59% 7.24% 11.96% 2.77% 3.88% 3.94% 4.69% -0.71% 0.16% 7.40% 2.70% 10.20% 1.30%

NAV Date 31-Mar-2019 31-Mar-2019 29-Mar-2019 31-Mar-2019 31-Mar-2019 31-Mar-2019 31-Mar-2019 31-Mar-2019 31-Mar-2019 28-Feb-2019 28-Feb-2019 28-Feb-2019 28-Feb-2019 28-Feb-2019 28-Feb-2019 30-Mar-2019 30-Mar-2019 30-Mar-2019

MUTUAL FUNDS 52WK HI 2.22 4.27 2.05 188.32 158.55 1.61 1.75 1.70 1.14 6.99 8.54 6.15 10.52 11.46 10.46 10.00 8.69 11.79

52WK LOW 1.67 3.04 1.68 164.74 116.70 1.55 1.68 1.64 1.08 6.41 7.62 5.66 8.65 10.54 9.57 9.88 8.45 11.20

FUND CFAL Bond Fund CFAL Balanced Fund CFAL Money Market Fund CFAL Global Bond Fund CFAL Global Equity Fund FG Financial Preferred Income Fund FG Financial Growth Fund FG Financial Diversified Fund FG Financial Global USD Bond Fund Royal Fidelity Bahamas Opportunities Fund - Secured Balanced Fund Royal Fidelity Bahamas Opportunities Fund - Targeted Equity Fund Royal Fidelity Bahamas Opportunities Fund - Prime Income Fund Royal Fidelity Int'l Fund - Equities Sub Fund Royal Fidelity Int'l Fund - High Yield Fund Royal Fidelity Int'l Fund - Alternative Strategies Fund Colonial Bahamas Fund Class D Colonial Bahamas Fund Class E Colonial Bahamas Fund Class F

NAV 2.22 4.27 2.05 188.32 154.49 1.61 1.75 1.70 1.14 7.54 8.73 6.65 10.66 11.79 10.48 9.92 8.68 11.38

MARKET TERMS BISX ALL SHARE INDEX - 19 Dec 02 = 1,000.00 52wk-Hi - Highest closing price in last 52 weeks 52wk-Low - Lowest closing price in last 52 weeks Previous Close - Previous day's weighted price for daily volume Today's Close - Current day's weighted price for daily volume Change - Change in closing price from day to day Daily Vol. - Number of total shares traded today DIV $ - Dividends per share paid in the last 12 months P/E - Closing price divided by the last 12 month earnings

YIELD - last 12 month dividends divided by closing price Bid $ - Buying price of Colina and Fidelity Ask $ - Selling price of Colina and fidelity Last Price - Last traded over-the-counter price Weekly Vol. - Trading volume of the prior week EPS $ - A company's reported earnings per share for the last 12 mths NAV - Net Asset Value N/M - Not Meaningful

broader restructuring and repositioning strategy that created a much-improved business and investment climate in The Bahamas. “WTO Accession can form part of a successful strategy of structural reform to modernise and liberalise the economy,” they wrote. “But there are legitimate concerns amongst the local population around the potential impact of increased international competition on relatively small Bahamian businesses, as well as negative effects on existing trade imbalances and the public finances. “Decision-makers should manage the levers of market protection and competition in an effort to maximise national economic growth and avoid business and/ or sector complacency and inefficiency.” Jeffrey Beckles, the chamber’s chief executive, told Tribune Business yesterday that the report’s findings represented “an urgent call to action for The Bahamas”. He said the private sector needs to “insist” that the economy’s structural weaknesses and bottlenecks be addressed, given that reform in these areas largely depends on the government. “It is an urgent call to action for The Bahamas,” Mr Beckles said of Oxford Economics’ conclusions.

THE TRIBUNE “We must insist on a direction for the country, insist we address these deficiencies and insist on economic diversification. It’s an urgent call to action, and we must act, and act collectively and with the national interest at heart.” Mr Barton told this newspaper that the study’s findings show full WTO membership is not a panacea, or cure-all, for The Bahamas’ economic malaise but can be part of the solution if it secures accession terms to its benefit. “WTO is not going to be a silver bullet for the economy,” he emphasised, pointing to areas such as “excessive bureaucracy”, the high cost of electricity, legal services and insurance, and labour costs and skills gaps that need to be addressed alongside the separation process. “They’ve really come to a head since the financial crisis,” Mr Barton said of these deficiencies. “It’s becoming quite clear that something needs to change, and the consensus in the business community is that wide-ranging policy reforms are necessary. “Getting back to WTO, it’s not a silver bullet, but if used used alongside local policy reforms, that’s how to finally stimulate growth again in this economy.” “What is also clear from our study is that WTO accession alone will not be a panacea for the current problems facing the Bahamian economy,” the Oxford Economics study reiterated. “In order to achieve a sustainable acceleration of growth, policymakers need to embark on a more ambitious and broad-based reform agenda to improve the domestic business environment.”

NOTICE

NOTICE is hereby given that SHAWNATON ANTHONY SPENCER of #9 Leeward East, P.O. BOX EE-17562, Nassau, Bahamas is applying to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, for Registration Naturalization as a citizen of The Bahamas, and that any person who knows any reason why registration/naturalization should not be granted, should send a written and signed statement of the facts within twenty-eight days from the 1st day of May, 2019 to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, P.O. Box N-7147, Nassau, New Providence, The Bahamas.

NOTICE NOTICE is hereby given that SIDNEY ALPHONSE of Mildred Avenue, off Carmichael Road, Nassau, Bahamas is applying to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, for Registration Naturalization as a citizen of The Bahamas, and that any person who knows any reason why registration/ naturalization should not be granted, should send a written and signed statement of the facts within twenty-eight days from the 1st day of May, 2019 to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, P.O. Box N-7147, Nassau, New Providence, The Bahamas.

NOTICE NOTICE is hereby given that OKARDO DENISTON JARRETT of Cromwell Street #3, off Boyd Road, Nassau, Bahamas is applying to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, for Registration Naturalization as a citizen of The Bahamas, and that any person who knows any reason why registration/ naturalization should not be granted, should send a written and signed statement of the facts within twenty-eight days from the 8th day of May, 2019 to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, P.O. Box N-7147, Nassau, New Providence, The Bahamas.

NOTICE

NOTICE is hereby given that DUNNIA MARIA VEGA OVARES of Forest, Exuma, Bahamas is applying to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, for Registration Naturalization as a citizen of The Bahamas, and that any person who knows any reason why registration/naturalization should not be granted, should send a written and signed statement of the facts within twenty-eight days from the 8th day of May, 2019 to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, P.O. Box N-7147, Nassau, New Providence, The Bahamas.

THE TRIBUNE

Wednesday, May 8, 2019, PAGE 7

‘Trade imbalances’ may require fixed exchange review FROM PAGE ONE the Oxford Economics study said this could widen The Bahamas’ merchandise trade deficit by up to 2.3 percent of GDP over the next decade and represent

a significant drain on the external reserves. Lloyd Barton, Oxford Economics’ head of global trade, downplayed this aspect of the report in an interview with Tribune Business by emphasising

that it had not concluded US dollar parity - and the fixed exchange rate peg were unsustainable. He said The Bahamas’ foreign currency reserve levels “depend on a number of factors”, not just the

impact of WTO accession, and it was “too simple an analysis to say the reserves will be used up” as a result of increased import demand. “In reality there are a lot of other factors that go into assessing whether the currency peg is sustainable,” Mr Barton added. “That’s beyond the remit of this study. It’s an issue that was brought up.... It’s not the main thrust of this report. The focus should be elsewhere; the finding of WTO’s impact on the economy, and the recommendation for structural reform.” Assessing a scenario where The Bahamas became a full WTO member without undertaking broadbased policy reforms to improve the business climate, Oxford Economics estimated that import volumes would increase by nine percent over the four years from 2020. With exports rising by three percent over the same period, the study found: “In light of the relative scale of the estimated impacts on merchandise imports relative to exports, the trade deficit in goods would widen significantly as a result of WTO. Our results show the

deficit widening by around 2.3 percent of GDP relative to baseline levels, where it remains over the medium term.” While this would be partially offset by trade in services, Oxford Economics forecast that the current account deficit would still be larger by a sum equivalent to two percent of GDP come 2029. “While we expect that additional FDI inflows would fund over half of the gap that is expected to open in the current account, the remaining shortfall could still have negative repercussions on the foreign exchange situation. Over the period 2020-2025, the implied shortfall in funding averages around $100m a year,” the report said. “There are no universally applicable measures for assessing the adequacy of reserves, but it is clear that this scale of shortfall would have the potential to deplete all of the Central Bank’s estimated ‘useable’ external reserves of $522m over this timescale. That said, the Central Bank has been successful in increasing the stock of reserves in recent years through proceeds from external bond

NOTICE NOTICE is hereby given that MIKE McCOY of Roosevelt Avenue, Mackey Street #54 P.O. BOX SB52287 Nassau, Bahamas is applying to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, for Registration Naturalization as a citizen of The Bahamas, and that any person who knows any reason why registration/naturalization should not be granted, should send a written and signed statement of the facts within twenty-eight days from the 8th day of May, 2019 to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, P.O. Box N-7147, Nassau, New Providence, The Bahamas.

issues and other sources. “Still, it is clear that the authorities would need to think carefully about strategies to handle the increase in foreign currency demand that would accompany trade liberalisation and whether the associated costs are worth the benefits to the economy from maintaining the currency peg.” However, in a scenario where The Bahamas undertook fundamental economic reforms to accompany WTO accession, Oxford Economics said the current and merchandise trade deficits would be lower due to stronger foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and foreign currency export earnings. “The impact on the current account is more muted, with the deficit levelling off at around 1.3 percent of GDP above baseline levels over the medium term (compared to 2.1 percent of GDP in the [other] scenario),” Oxford Economics said. “This reflects both the larger size of the economy (which boosts GDP in the denominator) and an additional boost to exports of services, reflecting increased domestic investment in the sector. “The more muted impact on the current account means that associated repercussions on the foreign exchange situation would be less acute than in the [other] scenario, at least initially. Our estimates indicate that increased FDI inflows broadly counterbalance the widening of the current account in the years 20202025,” the report added. “However, the continued widening of the current account in subsequent years would eventually outpace these FDI inflows, implying that foreign exchange policies may still need to be reviewed later on.”