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TUESDAY, MAY 7, 2019
$4.82 Engineers eye ‘level playing’ field via WTO By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net THE Bahamas Society of Engineers (BSE) president has voiced optimism that joining WTO will create a “level playing field” that protects local professionals and grows their “share of the pie”. Quentin Knowles, in a recent interview with Tribune Business, said the nature of rules-based trading regimes such as the World Trade Organisation (WTO) meant the Government would find it harder to “relax” existing restrictions on foreign rivals entering The Bahamas and competing with qualified locals for work. Suggesting that the entry of overseas engineers, architects and other professionals was often left to the “discretion” of government officials, who were often keen to remove perceived obstacles to multi-million dollar foreign direct investment (FDI) projects, he added that WTO may provide a mechanism to ensure all “play by the rules”. With engineering and other Bahamian professions already “fairly liberalised”, Mr Knowles said the government’s plan to achieve full WTO membership by 2020 was unlikely to cause major disruption for his members and may even be beneficial. “From our perspective I personally believe there won’t be an appreciable change,” he told this newspaper. “The fact there’ll be trade rules in place; it could benefit us. We don’t know what’s going to happen; we don’t have a crystal ball, but from my perspective it’s not going to disadvantage our sector if they [the WTO] accept our current offer. “From what I understand, there hasn’t been any serious challenge to it. Right now, the offer for engineers and architects is what we have. There won’t be any change to the status quo unless there’s a challenge. From my perspective, and others may disagree, but some of the other people I’ve spoken to in the [BSE] leadership agree there will not be much of a change.” Sensing opportunity, rather than threat, Mr Knowles added: “We’re hoping that when we accede to the WTO there will be increased trade and more opportunities for us. “We, as local professionals, have to protect our
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$500m WTO ‘shortfall’ pressure for US$ peg By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net
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HE Bahamas’ one:one US dollar peg may face growing pressure from an annual $100m external reserves “shortfall” sparked by widening WTOinduced trade deficits, a study will warn today. The Oxford Economics report commissioned by the Bahamas Chamber of Commerce and Employers Confederation (BCCEC), which is due to be released today, will say expanding trade imbalances may force this nation to reassess its fixed exchange rate regime if it becomes a full World Trade Organisation (WTO) member. Tribune Business understands that the study, which examines the likely economic impact from The Bahamas joining the world’s trade rules setter, forecasts that imports will increase post-WTO accession as the lowering/ elimination of many import tariffs makes them relatively cheaper for businesses and consumers. With exports and foreign
•Chamberstudywarnsontradeimbalanceimpact •Butsaysaccessionoverallpositiveforeconomy •Wouldliftlong-rungrowthto2%,cutjoblessrate •Investmentapprovalsregimehardtomaintain direct investment (FDI) inflows unable to fully compensate for the drawdown on foreign currency to purchase these items, sources revealed the Oxford Economics study finds this will widen The Bahamas’ merchandise trade deficit by a sum equivalent to 2.3 percent of GDP over the next decade. A trade deficit means The Bahamas imports more physical goods than it exports, and the Oxford Economics study will warn this could result in a $100m shortfall between foreign currency outflows and inflows over the five years between 2020 to 2025. Just 50 percent of the Central Bank’s external reserves are deemed to be “free” due to its existing local currency liabilities. Sources yesterday said that, based on $1.301bn in external reserves at February 20, 2019, the report suggests
some $500m of the $655m in useable foreign currency holdings could be wiped out in the worst-case scenario it paints. However, Oxford Economics will say the outcome is much more positive if The Bahamas is able to address its structural weaknesses and bottlenecks simultaneously with joining the WTO, and negotiate more favourable accession terms such as the phase-in of key tariff reductions. Should it succeed in these areas, sources said the resulting increase in FDI and exports via a more competitive business environment would help offset the expected surge in imports, and ensure foreign currency outflows better matched inflows over the short to medium-term. Longer term, though, the trade deficit will still continue to widen. “It is clear that the
authorities would need to think carefully about strategies to handle the increase in foreign currency demand that would accompany trade liberalisation, and whether the associated costs are worth the benefits to the economy from maintaining the currency peg,” the Oxford Economics report will say. It is understood that the report, while not explicitly recommending that The Bahamas become a full WTO member, nudges this country in that direction by finding that the likely overall impact post-accession will be positive for the economy. The chamber has previously said Oxford Economics’ findings would determine whether it throws its, and the private sector’s, support behind the government’s drive to
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Union chief: ‘Compromise failure’ hurts labour talks By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net A VETERAN trade union leader yesterday said the failure “to understand what compromise means in The Bahamas” had produced bitter industrial disputes that undermined the national interest. Obie Ferguson, the Trades Union Congress (TUC) president, told Tribune Business that too often parties to labour negotiations adopted a “bull in a china shop” or “my way or the highway” attitude that antagonised the other side and produced protracted battles. Speaking out as he confirmed that himself and Dionisio D’Aguilar, minister of tourism and aviation, are due to hold a press conference this coming Monday to confirm details of the voluntary separation payouts to some 91 Grand Lucayan managers, Mr
•TUCleaderrailsover‘bullinchinashop’way •Sayspersonalitiesleadto‘conflictandstrikes’ •Wantsdisputeresolutiontaughtinschools
OBIE FERGUSON Ferguson warned that such confrontational approaches were “not progressive”. He called for dispute resolution, and associated techniques, to become part of The Bahamas’ school curriculum, and said industrial negotiations were too-often affected by parties taking “intransigent positions” or making the
dispute personal through name-calling and threats. “In any negotiation there comes a difficult period,” Mr Ferguson told this newspaper. “I don’t know of any negotiation where there things weren’t a little rocky at some stage. “That seems to be the process, but once there’s a commitment to sign a resolution there’ll be a resolution. The only time there’ll be a difficulty in achieving resolution is when you have persons take intransigent positions. “That seems to be very prevalent in The Bahamas. Instead of sitting down intelligently, determining the issues of both side and what is in dispute, negotiators sometimes take on a personality-driven
approach and, instead of dealing with the issues, the parties get involved with name calling and threats and things of that nature,” the TUC chief continued. “That is not progressive, and not designed to take us anywhere other than conflict and industrial action, which in my humble opinion is not progressive and does not bode well for a country like ours.” Mr Ferguson said the recipe for successful, nonconfrontational industrial talks was for both parties to approach the matter with “an open mind” and understand/respect each other’s interests and position. “There’s no other way,” he told Tribune Business.
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$4.86 Carnival sees 40-60% foreign reveller growth By NATARIO MCKENZIE Tribune Business Reporter
nmckenzie@tribunemedia.net BAHAMAS Carnival band owners yesterday estimated there was a 40-60 per cent increase in foreign revellers at this year’s Road March parade, and said the event has become “one of the premier festivals in the region”. Dario Tirelli, spokesman for the Bahamas Carnival Band Owners Associations (BCBOA) and a former president, told Tribune Business: “We had far more revellers than we had in the past. We are estimating a 40-60 percent increase in foreign revellers on the parade. “Bed and breakfast businesses did great this past weekend. A lot of persons opted to go to bed and breakfast first. That’s the big trend now. Taxi drivers became brand ambassadors for us. They were promoting the festival as they picked up guests from the cruise terminal and the airport. “We were able to pick up last-minute revellers from persons that got recommended to talk to some of the various bands. Even the concert was able to pick up more people that were in town but didn’t come for Carnival,” he added. “Overall we feel economically this was a better parade income-wise for the bands. I did interviews along the parade route and the vendors did very well. There were some 600 persons came off the cruise ship for Carnival.” Bahamas Carnival, now in its fifth year, and second as a privately-funded event, has become one of the premier festivals in the region, according to Mr Tirelli. Polantra Media Group (PMG), of which Island Luck chief executive Sebas Bastian is a principal, is now the main organiser. “We don’t need anything from government financially. We need their support in police power and marketing internationally on the Ministry of Tourism’s marketing portal. We can’t have this big of a parade and we have to struggle to pay the police bill,” said Mr Tirelli. “It’s a business but we need the government to get involved and we need more manpower. Definitely the year-round marketing and branding has it as one of the premier festivals in the region. The band owners have done well with their respective marketing and promotion.”
Bahamas First chief ‘very confident’ over VAT deal By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net BAHAMAS First’s top executive is “very confident” the government and general insurers will reach “a mutually beneficial resolution” to end the uncertainty over VAT recoveries on claims payouts. Patrick Ward, the property and casualty underwriter’s president and chief executive, told Tribune Business in a recent interview that it was hoping the agreement between the government and industry could be “concluded as quickly as possible” so both sides knew where they stood and could move on. The Bahamas First chief, revealing that he was “even more” optimistic than rival Insurance Company of The Bahamas (ICB) about the
Acquired agencies on target for full payout prospects of a settlement, said: “I’m very confident that the VAT issue will be resolved. “We’ve certainly had some constructive discussions with the government, and our expectation is that we will see a mutually beneficial resolution to this issue that is perfectly acceptable to the industry and the government. “That’s certainly our hope, and every indication we’ve had so far suggests that will be the case. From Bahamas First’s perspective our concern is that we want to get rid of the uncertainty, and now we’re in a place where that’s likely to be the case we hope to conclude this as quickly as possible.” Mr Ward’s comments echo the optimism of Tom Duff, ICB’s general
manager, who told Tribune Business last week that the property and casualty industry and government within touching distance of settling a VATrelated dispute that has dragged on for over a year. The quarrel stemmed from whether general insurance underwriters could recover VAT on all or only some claims that were settled on a cash basis. While the insurance industry felt it had achieved “a clear understanding” with the former Christie administration that VAT was recoverable on all such claims, its successor adopted the position that this was only the case where the insured client was a VAT registrant meaning a business with a turnover greater than
$100,000 per annum. As a result, Bahamian property and casualty insurers were faced with being unable to recover “the VAT portion” of any Hurricane Matthewrelated claims paid out to residential homeowners and other non-VAT registrants. Given the $400m in insured damage inflicted by that storm, this left the industry facing a massive, unexpected multi-million dollar financial burden. These concerns were reiterated by Mr Ward in Bahamas First’s annual report, where he told shareholders: “The threat of an industry-wide adverse value added tax (VAT) ruling relating to legacy claims dating back to the initial
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