05062020 BUSINESS

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business@tribunemedia.net

WEDNESDAY, MAY 6, 2020

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AG: New EU blacklist “Tell Europe ‘especially distressing’ ALFRED SEARS QC

that enough is enough”

By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net THE Bahamas was yesterday urged to tell Europe “enough is enough”, with a former attorney general arguing it is wielding “blacklisting” as a tool to drive this nation out of financial services. Alfred Sears QC, responding after it was revealed that the European Commission plans to include The Bahamas on a 12-strong blacklist of nations with weaknesses in their anti-financial crime defences, said it was resorting to a “protectionist” agenda at the very moment this nation is “fighting for its life” against the COVID-19 pandemic. Telling Tribune Business that the commission, which acts as the 27-nation European Union’s (EU) civil service, is “not coming with clean hands”, Mr Sears said its continued blacklisting threats (see other article on Page 1B) were equivalent to a hurricane or pandemic in terms of their impact on the Bahamian financial services industry. “The problem is that the EU is not the police of the world,” he told this newspaper. “If we need any evidence that the EU and its bodies will use every strategy available to them, including COVID-19, to advance their protectionist agenda, here it is now.” Mr Sears voiced shock that the European Commission would be “so opportunistic” to again threaten this country’s second largest industry “at a time when we are faced with a probable economic fallout equivalent to the Great Depression”. Noting that “The Bahamas is fighting for its life” against COVID-19, and the joint health and economic impact, the former attorney general said the European Commission’s latest action meant this nation needed to “find the courage” to draw a line in the sand beyond which it cannot go. “There needs to be the resolve, once and for all, to put anti-money laundering under an international convention,” he told Tribune Business. “I’m calling on the Government of the Commonwealth of The Bahamas to tell the EU: Enough is enough. “The most egregious money laundering has not been in The Bahamas. The most egregious money laundering uncovered has been in Europe and the United States. This has become like a hurricane, a pandemic. It’s an existential threat, this protectionism by the EU. “They’re not coming with clean hands. They’re cloaking protectionism under the guise of anti-money laundering. We see time and time again the selective enforcement of standards whereas we over-regulate in The Bahamas,” Mr Sears continued. “It’s easier for a Bahamian to open a bank account in New York or Miami than it is in Nassau. It has undermined our competitive advantage and the ease of doing business. I believe that is part of the intent.”

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By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

T

HE Attorney General yesterday said it was “especially distressing” that Europe appears to have ignored The Bahamas’ “Herculean efforts” in preparing to again blacklist this nation. Carl Bethel QC, pictured, told Tribune Business it was “especially questionable” that the European Commission, the civil service for the 27-nation European Union (EU), is targeting the country for alleged deficiencies in its anti-financial crime regime when the global standard-setter on these issues had earlier this year placed The Bahamas on the path to “exit” its own oversight process. Speaking after reports emerged yesterday that the European

The FATF earlier this year determined The Bahamas had made sufficient progress in eliminating weaknesses in its anti-money laundering and counter-terror financing regime to warrant a “site visit” to Nassau, during which its representatives will assess how effectively

THE Bahamas will be in an International Monetary Fund (IMF) adjustment programme by 2021 due to a “balance of payments crisis”, a noted Caribbean economist predicted yesterday. Marla Dukharan, formerly Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) top regional economics expert, told a webinar with Cayman Islands financial analysts that “the collapse of foreign exchange inflows” due to the tourism shutdown will leave The Bahamas with no choice but to seek the IMF’s financial aid. Now running her own economics consultancy, Ms Dukharan said the COVID19 pandemic will set The Bahamas’ back seven years - returning it to 2013 economic output (gross domestic product or GDP) levels if the fund’s projection of an 8.3 percent contraction

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• Top economist predicts ‘balance of payments crisis’ • COVID-19 to set nation back seven years on GDP • ‘Borrow big, borrow hard’, government is urged

MARLA DUKHARAN in 2020 comes true. Warning that the true outcome this year will likely be worse than the IMF’s forecast, given that assessments of COVID-19’s impact are changing on an almost daily basis, she branded The Bahamas as “one of the most vulnerable countries” due to its overwhelming dependence on tourism. “The Inter-American

Development Bank estimated that The Bahamas could lose $900m in foreign reserves this year,” Ms Dukharan said. “As a result, even though they have seven months’ of import cover, based on what we saw earlier in terms of the relative dependence of The Bahamas on tourism, and particularly cruise tourism - about 75 percent of their tourism is based on cruises - I would imagine that their foreign exchange inflows are going to collapse or have collapsed already. “This is why the government is implementing tougher restrictions on foreign currency outflows. I believe there’s going to be a balance of payments crisis from what it looks like right

By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

now in The Bahamas by next year, and therefore an IMF programme.” The words “IMF programme” will likely fill many Bahamians with dread, as will Ms Dukharan’s 2021 prediction. In return for receiving any financial bailout, The Bahamas would likely have to accept strict austerity measures and a restructuring of its economy that could result in the downsizing of the public service and other conditions that could negatively affect employment, incomes and businesses. An IMF “programme” would effectively result in The Bahamas’ losing control over how its own economy

this nation has implemented the necessary regulatory and legal upgrades. That is the final stage in exiting the enhanced surveillance applied by the FATF’s International Co-operation Review Group (ICRG), and removal from its “grey list”. Mr Bethel yesterday said the EU, which is well represented on the FATF, would have been fully aware of both The Bahamas’ progress and the fact that the planned “site visit” has been postponed to a undetermined date due to COVID-19. Voicing hope that there could be “meaningful dialogue” with the European Commission before The Bahamas is placed on any

Bahamas faces ‘IMF programme by 2021’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Web shops back with curb-side, drive through NUMEROUS Bahamian web shop locations have resumed business via drive through and curb-side services following the government’s easing of the nationwide COVID-19 lockdown. Much of the domestic gaming industry has joined other sectors of the economy in re-opening for the first time in over six weeks at stores able to offer these facilities while complying with the necessary health and safety protocols. Tribune Business staff drove past Island Luck’s Fox Hill Road location which, at around 1.30pm yesterday, had a packed parking lot. The property had a large sign emphasising that patrons could use its drive-through facility to deposit monies on their accounts or pay for their numbers. A tent structure for curb-side services was also located outside the front entrance, although no patrons were being allowed inside. Neither Sebas Bastian, Island Luck’s principal, or Gershan Major, the Bahamas Gaming Operators Association’s chief executive, returned calls and messages seeking comment before press time last night. Tribune Business understands that all web shop chains have either reopened or are seeking to do so. The Gaming Board, the sector’s regulator, took legal advice from the Attorney General’s Office which confirmed that under the prime minister’s Emergency Powers orders locations that could provide drive through and curb side services can re-open. A Gaming Board spokesperson yesterday urged patrons to “immediately bring to our attention” any web shop chain or location that was not abiding by the COVID-19 health protocols so that the matter could be turned over to the Royal Bahamas Police Force. One web shop executive, who has yet to re-open, confirmed to this newspaper their chain is likely to follow the likes of Island

• Bahamas’ ‘Herculean efforts’ being ignored • Move ‘questionable’ given near FATF exit • Bethel: Commission ignoring own pledges

Commission intends to again formally blacklist The Bahamas this Thursday, Mr Bethel said the bloc seemed to be ignoring its own guidelines that a country’s standing with the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) would weigh heavily in determining whether it is included on the list.

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Restrictions halt bank’s $20m in outflow deals

By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

ROYALFIDELITY’S president yesterday praised the Central Bank for “trying to get ahead” of foreign reserves stress via measures that will curtail $20m in outflows facilitated by the merchant bank last year. Michael Anderson told Tribune Business that the restrictions on foreign exchange outflows imposed to-date by the regulator were normally seen “later in the cycle”, but he acknowledged that both Central Bank, private sector and investors had never before confronted anything like the COVID-19 pandemic. “We’ve only been in this situation coming up eight weeks,” he said. “Some of these issues we see coming later in the cycle, but I think the Central Bank is trying to get ahead of anything out there, which is wise for everybody’s sake. “We know the need to protect our US dollar reserves, and that will be the priority requirement going forward; to make sure we have enough reserves for

• RoyalFidelity chief praises Central Bank move • Regulator ‘trying to get ahead’ of reserve stress • Adds that action ‘wise for everybody’s sake’

MICHAEL ANDERSON the country’s needs. I think they’re [the measures] early compared to where we’d expect to see them, but this is the type of issue that nobody’s seen for a while, so it may be warranted.” John Rolle, the Central Bank’s governor, on Monday signalled that maintaining the foreign currency reserves at adequate levels to support The Bahamas’ balance of payment needs and the fixed exchange rate regime is among his top priorities. Underscoring how real

the threat is, he unveiled a four-strong package of measures designed to create a $300m “buffer” for the external reserves by restricting foreign currency outflows as well as seeking to generate badly-needed inflows. The Central Bank has suspended all approvals for Bahamians seeking to invest in foreign securities and real estate, and requested that the National Insurance Board (NIB) liquidate “some” of its overseas investments and return the proceeds back home, as part of a package intended to protect the country’s monetary foundation from the COVID-19 fall-out. These two initiatives join the bar on Canadian-owned bank dividend remittances. Mr Anderson, who said the dividend halt will likely produce the biggest savings, and RoyalFidelity will be most impacted - in company with other broker/dealers by the

restrictions imposed on foreign asset investments by Bahamians and residents. These block investors seeking access to global opportunities via both the Central Bank’s Investment Currency Market (ICM) and the Bahamian Depository Receipt (BDR) initiative. The former, aided by the delegation of authority to the commercial banks, had allowed Bahamians and residents to buy and sell foreign currency at a five percent and 2.5 percent premium, respectively, above the official rate. The BDR initiative, meanwhile, allowed Bahamians and residents to make local currency investments in investment funds whose broker/dealer sponsors then converted into foreign currency for the purpose of acquiring international securities. This programme, on annual basis was able to consume five percent of the external reserves up to a

maximum of $35m. “I think the local investor market has been getting more interested to get into international markets for various reasons, and it’s more noticeable than a year ago,” Mr Anderson told Tribune Business. “That’s maybe why they [the Central Bank] saw fit to to close it down because they’ve seen a higher degree of money leaving that way.” The RoyalFidelity chief said the decline in the US stock markets appeared to have sparked Bahamian investor interest in getting in at attractive entry price points - a trend that emerged during the 2020 first quarter. Prior to this, he said the six broker/dealers had not been fully using their quarterly BDR allocations of around $1.33m as there was simply insufficient demand from Bahamian investors to buy into the US and other global markets to justify doing so. As for the Investment Currency Market (ICM), Mr Anderson added: “Over the last year we’ve seen a number of investors come

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