04202020 BUSINESS

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MONDAY, APRIL 20, 2020

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Ex-minister: Speed up investment to avoid ‘catastrophe’

Bahamas most exposed to external fund pressure

By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

AN EX-investment minister says the government must turn promises of fasttrack approvals into reality to give The Bahamas “a fighting chance of avoiding economic catastrophe”. Khaalis Rolle, who held the post in the former Christie administration, told Tribune Business that the government now needed to show “the same action, vigour and ability” demonstrated in implementing and enforcing the COVID-19 lockdown when it came to moving investment projects from pipeline to reality.

HE Bahamas is the world’s most vulnerable tourism-based economy to external financing pressures, a Standard & Poor’s (S&P) study has revealed, and faces “major deterioration” in credit indicators. S&P, in a report that “stress-tested” countries’ fragility in the face of a COVID-19 tourism-related slowdown, found that The Bahamas gross external financing needs - measured as a percentage of current account receipts plus usable reserves - “worsen more dramatically” than any of the 122 nations assessed. And this nation’s external indebtedness, involving monies owed to foreign creditors, would also increase by a sum equivalent to more than 30 percent of current account receipts in the worst-case scenario modelled by the rating agency that last Thursday further downgraded The Bahamas’

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KHAALIS ROLLE Calling on all ministries and agencies involved in the investment approvals process to “dig deep” and shed their reputation for being “notoriously slow moving”, Mr Rolle said the officials running them needed to realise that their own jobs

SEE PAGE 6

Oil explorer in licence extend over COVID-19

By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

A BAHAMAS-based oil explorer has voiced optimism that the government will extend its drilling licence beyond year-end despite Florida congressmen lobbying the Trump administration against its plan. Bahamas Petroleum Company (BPC), in a statement to the markets, confirmed that the COVID-19 pandemic has forced it to push the likely start date for its first exploratory well back to October

2020 from the proposed late May/early June timeframe. The company has also notified the government that it is exercising the “force majeure” clause in its agreement, which deals with “unforeseeable circumstances” preventing one party from fulfilling the terms of a contract, and will seek a licence extension beyond year-end 2020 for a period equivalent to the pandemic’s duration. Expressing confidence that such an extension will be granted, BPC said in a

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‘Leaner’ law firms eyed as Mckinney confirms lay-offs By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net A PROMINENT QC has warned that Bahamian law firms will likely be “leaner” following the COVID-19 pandemic as McKinney, Bancroft & Hughes became the latest major player to confirm lay-offs. Wayne Munroe QC, principal of Munroe & Associates, told Tribune Business that staff numbers at many practices were likely to be reduced following the pandemic “sad to say” because companies

WAYNE MUNROE QC were likely to realise they can operate much more efficiently. Confirming that “all firms are being hit” by their enforced closure amid the national lockdown,

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• Chamber pushes back at ‘no soul’ PM • As S&P warns of ‘major deterioration’ • Foreign reserves to fall $1bn in 2020

PRIME MINISTER DR HUBERT MINNIS sovereign creditworthiness. S&P’s stress testing, which looked at three scenarios based on a reduction in global tourist footfall of 11 percent, 19 percent and 27 percent, respectively, also projected that The Bahamas would suffer the fifth-greatest drop in economic output (gross domestic product) by between 2.37 percent and 5.83 percent depending on which outcome materialised.

While that is less than the 16 percent GDP drop that S&P forecast last week in downgrading The Bahamas, the rating agency also projected that this nation will suffer the 11th greatest “deterioration” in the central government’s debt balance of between 0.63 percent and 1.47 percent in 2020 depending on how severe and prolonged COVID-19 is. However, S&P’s modelling suggested that

greatest impacts and risks facing The Bahamas will be on the external/foreign currency side. Focusing on a country’s external risk, as measured by outside liquidity pressures/financing needs as a percentage of current account receipts and usable reserves, the rating agency ranked this nation as the world’s most vulnerable. In a worst-case scenario, it said The Bahamas’ gross external financing needs could soar to 58.5 percent of current account receipts and usable reserves in 2020, and 56.58 percent in 2021. “Gross external financing needs worsen most dramatically for the Bahamas,” S&P added, “while the impact is expectedly large for other small tourist-driven economies such as Barbados, Aruba, Belize, Cape Verde, Montenegro, and Albania.”

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