03222022 BUSINESS

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TUESDAY, MARCH 22, 2022

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IMF interest rate fears dampened By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net Bahamian financial analysts yesterday dampened fears of near-term interest rate hikes after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggested such increases may be necessary to protect the US dollar exchange rate peg. Hubert Edwards, head of the Organisation for Responsible Government’s (ORG) economic development committee, told Tribune Business he “didn’t really see the need for increasing interest rates” unless there was a sudden surge in consumer credit and import purchases that diluted

• Analysts: ‘No need’ for Bahamas to hike borrowing costs • Fund suggests rises ‘as needed’ to protect US dollar peg • But prospects for near-term consumer credit boom dim the foreign currency reserves beyond acceptable levels. Hinting that a credit-fuelled explosion in consumer demand was highly unlikely, given the

challenges banks are having in locating qualified borrowers, he added that the $2.448bn worth of surplus liquidity in the commercial banking system will also act to

maintain Bahamian interest rates at their current levels. Mr Edwards was backed by Gowon Bowe, Fidelity Bank (Bahamas) chief executive, who also told this newspaper that he “certainly doesn’t see” any increase in the discount rate, and Bahamian Prime, within the next 18 months. He added that the nation has “quite a way to go before seeing any interest rate movement of consequence”. Both men spoke out after the IMF, in a statement on the completion of its annual Article IV consultation with The Bahamas, raised the spectre that the Central

IMF: New, increased taxes a must for 25% revenue target By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net THE International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday subtly signalled that The Bahamas must introduce new and/or increased taxes to hit fiscal targets that include a 25 percent revenue-to-GDP ratio before the next general election is due. The Washington D.C. based Fund, in a statement on its Article IV consultation with The Bahamas, while praising the Davis administration’s “well-calibrated” plans to eliminate persistent Budget deficits and boost tax enforcement warned that this needed to go “hand-in-hand” with tax policy reforms.

“Measures include the re-establishment of the Revenue Enhancement Unit and an updated property tax roll. The envisaged overall surplus would be consistent with rebuilding fiscal buffers and putting public debt-to-GDP on a decisive downward path towards the target of 50 percent, as laid out in the Fiscal Responsibility Act.”

KWASI THOMPSON However, the Fund then added: “A well-calibrated tax policy reform should go hand-in-hand with ongoing revenue enhancement efforts. Options include gradually bringing VAT rates close to the regional average of 15 percent; further limiting tax

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National debt still bigger than Bahamas economy

Bahamas’ growth ‘more than double’ projections

By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

THE BAHAMAS’ national debt remained larger than the size of the country’s economy at year-end 2021, it was revealed yesterday, standing at a sum equivalent to 100.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The Central Bank, unveiling its quarterly economic review for the three months to end-December 2021, pegged the national debt - which includes the Government’s direct debt as well as that it has guaranteed on behalf of state agencies - at $10.717bn. While the rate of national debt growth was easing, the monetary policy regulator said: “The direct charge on the Government grew by $230.9m (2.3 percent) over the quarter, and by $900m (9.6 percent) on an annual basis, to $10.318bn at endDecember 2021.... The Government’s contingent liabilities decreased by $2.2m (0.5 percent) over the three-month period, and by $40.9m year-on-year, to $399.1m. “As a result of these developments, the national debt - inclusive of contingent liabilities - rose by $228.7m (2.2 percent) over the previous quarter, and by $859.1m (8.7 percent), on an annual basis, to $10,717bn

THE BAHAMAS exceeded 2021 economic growth projections by 180 percent, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revealed yesterday, as it urged this nation to make increased COVID-19 vaccination rates its top priority. The Washington D. C. based Fund, in its annual Article IV statement on The Bahamas, said the country had achieved more than double the projected gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2021 with actual economic output expanding by 5.5 percent as opposed to the forecast 2 percent. However, the more rapidthan-anticipated reflation of the Bahamian economy following the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with the impact from soaring global inflation and uncertainties caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has resulted in the IMF shaving two percentage points off 2022’s growth forecast - reducing this from 8 percent to 6 percent. GDP growth estimates for 2023

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HUBERT EDWARDS

Gov’t seeks tariff slash proposals By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

• Praises deficit-eliminating plans as ‘well-calibrated’ • Opposition tells Gov’t: ‘Stop being coy’ on taxation • Bank chief points to ‘risk premia’ warning by Fund “The Government’s goal to achieve a 1.5 percent of GDP fiscal surplus over the medium term is well-calibrated,” the IMF said. “The authorities have invested considerable resources in strengthening tax administration with a goal of increasing the revenue-to-GDP ratio to 25 percent.

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have been maintained at 4.1 percent. “The Bahamas’ tourismdependent economy was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, which came on the heels of the devastation caused by Hurricane Dorian. The economy is recovering strongly but the pandemic has exacted a tragic human and social toll, and caused a significant weakening in public finances,” the IMF said. “Growth in 2020 was -14.5 percent, among the lowest in the region, as tourism receipts fell by more than 75 percent. Starting in the second half of 2021, the tourism sector experienced a significant rebound, with stopover arrivals doubling relative to 2020. “Coupled with an uptick in construction activity, output is estimated to have expanded by around 5.5 percent last year. Real GDP growth is estimated at around 6 percent this year, although a full recovery to prepandemic levels is not expected before end-2023. Inflationary pressures are building in line with global developments and

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THE Government is seeking private sector recommendations on potential Customs tariff cuts that could be implemented via the upcoming 2022-2023 Budget as a means to ease the impact of soaring inflation on Bahamians. Well-placed Tribune Business sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Senator Michael Halkitis, minister of economic affairs, had asked businesses to submit a list of tariff headings that could potentially be slashed along with new rates when he met with Bahamas Chamber of Commerce and Employers Confederation (BCCEC) executives - including members of its ease of doing business committee - on Friday. Ben Albury, president of the Bahamas Motor Dealers Association (BMDA), whose members and consumers face some of The Bahamas’ highest Excise

BEN ALBURY tax rates, confirmed to this newspaper that the sector was currently formulating its reduction proposals. With prices continuing to “blow up”, he added that it was vital that The Bahamas “try to get a grip” on soaring inflation given the threat it poses to living standards, quality of life and the postCOVID economic recovery. “I have spoken to somebody at the Chamber who advised they’re [the Government] looking at ways to try and ease the burden on

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