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WEDNESDAY, MARCH 11, 2020
$4.43 Bahamas on cusp of recession, says ex-finance minister
By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net A FORMER finance minister yesterday argued that The Bahamas stood on the threshold of another recession with the coronavirus likely “to knock a few more points of our GDP”. James Smith, pictured, also an ex-Central Bank governor, told Tribune Business that the Covid19 outbreak only “adds to the headwinds” The Bahamas is facing post-Dorian having failed to completely recover from the 2008-2009 recession. Warning that the full impact from the coronavirus has yet to fully work its way through the Bahamian economy, with much depending on the extent of the outbreak, Mr Smith said the effects to-date appeared to be more “subtle” and not as easily visible as in previous external shocks. “I think it’s going to add to the headwinds we’re already facing in terms of slow growth and the after effects of Dorian,” he told this newspaper. “We have still not emerged completely from the 2008 recession. This is the reason for the high unemployment figures and pretty much flat or negative growth we’ve seen.” Mr Smith said the reluctance of many persons to travel would impact both stopover and cruise ship tourism, while the supply chains for a country that imports virtually all it consumes have already been disrupted by manufacturing shutdowns and panic buying in major markets such as China and the US. “The sum total of that could knock a few percentage points off gross domestic product (GDP), which was already under stress,” he added. “It’s not a very happy outlook for us one way or another. The panic has set in, and people are reacting to that by changing their behaviour and buying more. It’s not too comforting an outlook.” Asked whether the Covid-19 fall-out could tip The Bahamas into a recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, Mr Smith replied: “I think we’re already there because the cancellation of rooms and more infrequent cruise ship stops, we’ll see it in the data in the next two to three months but it’s happening now. “Time lags will come into play, and we’ll see these things work themselves out over the next few weeks and months. I hope it’s not as severe as the outlook indicates, but at the same time we have to expect some negative impact on the economy and decrease in consumption. “We really have to keep our eye on this one. I have no idea how deep it’s going to be, but most of us will feel it. We should be accustomed to dealing with crisis. We’ve been there, with one now coming right after the other.” Mr Smith also suggested that The Bahamas had to be “be very careful how we react to this with economic policies” as traditional stimulus methods, such as putting more money in consumers’ hands, was unlikely to have the intended effect due to product shortages and the ongoing uncertainty.
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Ministry buries cemetery expansion plan (for now) By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net
A NASSAU cemetery’s expansion plans have been hit with a governmentimposed “stop order” following a furious backlash from residents of neighbouring communities. Adrian White, the Town Planning Committee’s chairman, yesterday confirmed to Tribune Business that no approvals had either been given or were pending for the construction-type activities by Woodlawn Gardens Cemetery that have alarmed persons living in Danottage Estates and Village Estates. Residents, many of whom have signed a 200-strong petition in opposition, told this newspaper that their quality of life is under threat after Woodlawn Gardens opened up their previously “dead end” streets (cul de sacs) to funeral traffic attending burials at the cemetery.
Estates Neighborhood Association, told Tribune Business that the issue has “huge ramifications” stretching beyond the immediate impact on her community as Woodlawn Gardens’ activities appeared to represent another example of unregulated, non-permitted development. Arguing that Bahamians “whether in Bain Town or Lyford Cay” should be concerned about upholding the rule of law, and ensuring their country does not become an unplanned urban sprawl such as Haiti, Mrs Clancy-Deveaux said it was residents who first alerted government agencies in late February to what was afoot after heavy trucks and backhoes began rumbling down their streets.
A PROMINENT Bahamian realtor yesterday argued that “no industry is immune” from the coronavirus fall-out, with his sector “as vulnerable as any” to the ongoing outbreak and related panic. Mario Carey, principal of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate MCR Group Bahamas, told Tribune Business that the Bahamian real estate market was “unlikely to be insulated” should the virus continue to spread in key buyer source markets such as the US, Canada and Europe. While some real estate activity could be conducted online in a “worst case” scenario, Mr Carey added: “Definitely things are slow. People aren’t travelling. I don’t think we’re insulated, and don’t know that we would be for long. “When I speak to people,
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• Top realtor: ‘We’re as vulnerable as any’ • Clients already adjusting Bahamas trips • High-end properties not top-of-mind
MARIO CAREY including the resorts, everybody is saying there are a lot of cancellations, things are slow. I would have to concur with what they’re saying. We’re like holding our breath. We haven’t had a case yet, and the Caribbean has been somewhat insulated, but Jamaica announced its first case today [yesterday]. That’s how quickly it happens.
“We have so many ports of entry - private boats, yachts and planes, not only commercial airlines. I personally cancelled a trip to Florida this weekend as there’s too much uncertainty. Once we get that first case, and God forbid that we don’t, I don’t know how this conversation will go.” Mr Carey added that it was “legitimate to think that people aren’t really in that space of buying real estate and travelling to buy real estate. Hopefully they can see the value and can do transactions online, and maybe their involved in deals that are wrapping up”. However, strong commercial bank liquidity levels and a more “aggressive” lending posture had resulted in increased activity in the
By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net
Bahamian segment of the real estate market that may help offset any decline on the international side. But Mr Carey also expressed concern for Bahamian vacation rental entrepreneurs that have built their business around the Airbnb model, as any slowdown in travel was likely to throw their efforts into a tailspin. “I don’t think anybody is immune,” he told Tribune Business. “I cannot imagine what industry would not be impacted, and I think real estate is as vulnerable as any. I don’t think real estate is insulated. “We are very close to the tourism business and the banking business. They
Desmond Bannister, minister of works, confirming he was aware of the Woodlawn Gardens issue, pledged to “act as quickly as possible to ensure those communities don’t have the character of their streets changed”. He promised that the government is “not going to allow the opening up” of the dead-end roads that turn into Danottage Estates off Soldier Road, where Woodlawn Gardens is also located, acknowledging that he had seen photos which “caused me some concern”. Mr White, the Town Planning Committee chair, said the body planned to invite both residents and the cemetery’s representatives to a hearing in two weeks’ time
‘No industry immune’ from the coronavirus By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net
BTC blames parent for non-compliance ‘beyond our control’
THE Bahamas Telecommunications Company (BTC) has blamed its immediate parent for regulatory breaches caused by changes to its TV line-up that were “beyond its control”. The carrier said the “ultimate break down” of contract negotiations between Cable & Wireless Communications (CWC) and various TV content providers meant it was unable to avoid violating the retail pricing rules and consumer protection regulations governing the industry. BTC thus joins Cable Bahamas as the second carrier to run afoul of the Utilities Regulation and Competition Authority (URCA) by making abrupt changes to its channel lineup without giving Bahamian consumers the minimum one month’s notice as required by the consumer protection regulations. URCA, unveiling its full determination yesterday, said the issues stemmed from two alterations to BTC’s Flow TV package. The first occurred when BTC added Discovery World and Discovery Theatre to its line-up on December 1, 2018, which was followed one month later by the removal of six other channels with effect from New Year’s Day 2019. The channels involved were Big Ten Network, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports Racing, National Geographic, National Geographic Wild and BBC America. While BTC is not deemed to have significant market power (SMP) in the provision of TV services, URCA argued that their bundling with its fixed-line services - where it is presumed to have dominance - as part of a Triple Play package brought it under the sector’s retail pricing rules. This required BTC to seek URCA’s approval for the channel line-up changes - something the regulator found it did not do. And it also failed to give consumer’s the necessary one month’s notice, with URCA saying: “Despite these obligations, BTC advertised the changes to the public and implemented them without receiving URCA’s prior
• Imposes ‘stop order’ on Woodlawn Gardens • Planning chair says no approvals given • Neighbour backlash on non-compliance This action appears designed to give vehicles access to a perimeter road that Woodlawn Gardens has constructed around the border of its property, in what Danottage Estates and Village Estates inhabitants believe is an attempt to open up the cemetery’s northern section after its southern portion became overcrowded. Besides fears of increased traffic congestion and parking problems, residents are also concerned about potential health, environmental and safety problems stemming from burial plots in the cemetery’s newly-accessible northern section being located right next to their property boundaries. BJ Clancy-Deveaux, a member of Dannottage
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PI entrepreneur: PM gave me assurance By YOURI KEMP Tribune Business Reporter ykemp@tribunemedia.net A BAHAMIAN entrepreneur yesterday said he was “assured” by Dr Hubert Minnis that his $2m Paradise Island project would not be “compromised” in favour of Royal Caribbean (RCCL). Toby Smith, principal of Paradise Island Lighthouse & Beach Club Company, told Guardian Talk Radio that his efforts to lease five acres of crown land on Paradise Island’s western end would not be sacrificed to ensure the cruise line’s Grand Lucayan joint venture closed that deal. “The prime minister reassured me he was not about to compromise [my] deal with Carnival or RCCL or any other cruise line, and to be patient,” Mr Smith said, after finding out his project was possibly being held up while the government focused on getting the $300m Freeport project over the line. Tribune Business had previously been told by informed sources that the
PARADISE Island lighthouse. Minnis administration was waiting for that deal to close before it would approve Royal Caribbean’s beach club plans for Paradise Island/Colonial Beach - in effect, using the Nassau deal as leverage to get the cruise line to complete the Grand Lucayan purchase. This newspaper understands that negotiations between the government, and Royal Caribbean, ITM Group and their
Holistica joint venture, hit an “impasse” in November/ December 2019. To break this, the prime minister is said to have met individually with all the players during the first or second week in January. This is exactly the same time that Mr Smith received his “approval for crown land lease” document on January 7, 2020, complete with copy of the lease for two parcels - one for two acres, the other
for three - to be signed and executed. He signed and returned it on January 9, but the government has held-off on applying its signature. Mr Smith, who said he was “suckered” into thinking a crown land lease he had been negotiating for eight years was proceeding only for Royal Caribbean to subsequently apply for much of the same land, then came under pressure from the government to accept
an “inferior” piece of land at Colonial Beach. The entrepreneur said he spoke to Michael Bayley, Royal Caribbean’s president and chief executive, at the Grand Lucayan signing on March 2 in the hope they could work out a compromise over their competing Paradise Island ambitions. Mr Smith said: “I approached him very civilly and said: ‘I think it would be beneficial to both parties that you understand what it is I’m trying to do over there, let me understand what you’re trying to do over there and then maybe we can both figure out how we can both do what we want to do over there together.” He added that he would like to “take the heat off of the prime minister” on which deal he would prefer over the other, and said he would like to “try to figure out how we can work this one out. Then, once me and you can agree, we can go to the prime minister and say: ‘Hey, prime minister we’re looking for a trifecta win where my company wins, RCCL wins and the government wins’.”