business@tribunemedia.net
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 27, 2021
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GOWON BOWE
Top banker: Get economy ‘moving a bit more rapidly By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net A PROMINENT banker yesterday urged The Bahamas “to get the economic engine moving a little more rapidly”, adding: “This is when executive management earns our keep.” Gowon Bowe, Fidelity Bank (Bahamas) chief executive, spoke out after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned in its concluding Article IV consultation statement that some unnamed banks and credit unions were “vulnerable” to COVID-19 related risks. “The banking sector remains well capitalised, but some banks and credit unions are vulnerable to pandemic-induced risks, including an erosion of asset quality once loan moratoria expire, with negative implications for profitability and capital adequacy,” the Fund said. “Directors.... urged the Central Bank to ask banks for regular loan portfolio reviews and risk assessments. They also noted the importance of further developing macroprudential tools and strengthening interagency co-ordination.” Mr Bowe said the IMF’s statement referred to the banking and credit union industry’s ability to withstand a prolonged post-COVID recession and economic downturn, where a significant number of borrowers defaulted on their loan repayments due to unemployment and/or income loss. Arguing that the financial services sector had been the second greatest source of stability behind the government during COVID-19 to-date, with no lay-offs and reductions in spending, the Fidelity Bank (Bahamas) chief added that a growth focus was needed to ensure this situation continues. “I think what they’re looking at is the entire banking sector, including co-operatives, and the ability to sustain the current workforce and operating expenses in the event of a protracted recession, Mr Bowe said. While most commercial banks presently enjoy a risk-weighted assets ratio in excess of 20 percent, well above the Central Bank’s “trigger” threshold of 17 percent, he added that the losses already incurred by some institutions due to loan loss provisioning and other precautions highlighted how quickly capital buffers and reserves can be worn down by a sustained recession. “We cannot sustain negative performance
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US quarantine’s ‘door slam’ on Abaco rebuild
By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net
A
BACO’S Chamber of Commerce president yesterday voiced fears that the new US quarantine policy will “slam the door again” on the island’s post-Dorian reconstruction, adding: “We can’t catch a break.” Ken Hutton told Tribune Business that the latest US COVID-19 protocols, including the requirement that all returning travellers must produce a negative virus test taken within three days of their trip, are already deterring the second homeowners that comprise Abaco’s economic core from returning to rebuild their hurricanedevastated properties. Besides the impact on US citizens, he added that the “blanket” implementation of a quarantine on all foreign travellers would
• Chamber chief fears hit for Dorian reconstruction • Argues island ‘can’t catch a break’ since storm • Urges govt clarity on A/C, mattress tax breaks
KEN HUTTON likely prevent Abaco residents from visiting the US to buy essential materials and other supplies vital to the restoration of their homes and businesses. This becomes critical given the deadlines imposed by the government for accessing Dorian-related tax breaks. While much attention has
been placed on the potential tourism fall-out from the Biden administration’s quarantine move, Mr Hutton acknowledged that it also threatens to inflict further disruption on Dorian recovery efforts - which have already been interrupted by COVID-19 - with another hurricane season less than six months away. “We’ve already seen that,” he told this newspaper of the impact from the proposed US protocols. “We’ve had second homeowners that were here that started the rebuilding process and left before the 26th. They left before that. They cut the amount of time they had short because of that. We’ve already seen a serious deterrent effect
here because of that.” The requirement for all incoming international travellers to present a negative COVID-19 test, including US citizens, had been scheduled to take effect from yesterday, although the Biden administration’s executive order last week placed this and the potential quarantine on a 14-day review. “It’s so frustrating, because after the New Year we were starting to see the second homeowners come back and rebuild, and with this it’s like slamming the door again. We can’t win,” Mr Hutton added of the US move. “We’re not very happy about it. It’s certainly not an ideal thing.
THE International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday confirmed the Bahamian economy shrank by over $2bn last year to almost match the size of the country’s rapidly-growing national debt. The Washington DC based fund, in a statement on the end to its Article IV consultation with The Bahamas, warned that the government’s debt will “jump” to a level where it almost equals the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) - or economic output - for 2021 due to the COVID-19 fall-out. It added that The Bahamas’ national debt will “remain more than 22 percentage points above its pre-pandemic level over the medium-term”, leading some observers to predict “dark days” lie ahead for the country and that new
and/or increased taxes are “inevitable” once the economy has started to recover from COVID-19. The IMF, in a statement that largely regurgitated its pre-Christmas 2020 commentary on The Bahamas, reiterated that it will take this country until end-2023
to recover the economic value destroyed by the pandemic and return to preCOVID growth levels. This illustrates how far the tourism-dependent Bahamian economy has fallen, with the gund sticking to its predictions that it shrank by a mammoth 16.2
Minister says no change to Atlantis jobs
By NEIL HARTNELL and YOURI KEMP Tribune Business Reporters
percent in 2020 and will only enjoy an anemic two percent rebound this year. While GDP growth rates of 8.5 percent and four percent are projected for 2022 and 2023, respectively, The Bahamas will merely be recovering the tourism activity it lost to COVID-19. While 3.5 percent growth is forecast by the IMF for 2024, it also foresees that this will quickly peter out to 1.8 percent and 1.5 percent in 2025 and 2026. “The COVID-19 pandemic has exacted a significant human, social and economic toll on The Bahamas,” the IMF statement said. “The archipelago was just starting to recover from the severe damage caused
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• Debt to stay 22% pts over pre-COVID medium term • Nation’s liabilities almost match economy size at 90% • Observers fear ‘dark days ahead’; tax hikes ‘inevitable’
OUTSIDE THE IMF HEADQUARTERS
DION FOULKES
A CABINET minister yesterday said Atlantis’ plan to place 200 Royal Towers staff back on furlough will produce “no change in employment” at the Paradise Island mega resort. Dion Foulkes, minister for labour and transportation, speaking to reporters outside the Cabinet Office, said the move will effectively be offset by the resort recalling the same number of staff at its Cove property, which had been due to reopen on February 11. “The employment level at Atlantis remains the same. There’s no change in terms of the employment level. Atlantis has informed me that, at the Royal Towers, they have furloughed approximately 200 employees, but they have re-engaged approximately 200 employees at The Cove,” he explained. Mr Foulkes’ comments caused an astonished Darrin Woods, the Bahamas Hotel, Catering and Allied Workers Union’s president, to respond: “Muddo”. He argued that the government was focusing on “percentages and levels” when all Atlantis was doing was rotating one group of workers for another, and not actually increasing employment. “All that is doing is putting one set out and bringing another in,” he added. “No wonder we’re in the state we’re in thinking like that. All they’re [Atlantis] doing is giving another set of people a taste of the unemployment line by sending them home.” However, Mr Foulkes reiterated: “In terms of the employment level at Atlantis, there is no change. I am also advised by Atlantis that the Spring Break, which is
IMF: Bahamian economy shrank over $2bn in 2020 By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net
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Employers warned: ‘Don’t open up Pandora’s Box’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net A TRADE union leader yesterday warned that employers could “open up Pandora’s Box” if they back organised labour into a corner by failing to consult on planned changes to employment terms. Obie Ferguson, the Trades Union Congress (TUC) president, told Tribune Business that companies may not like the reaction if they “disrespect the interest of workers” by unilaterally altering industrial agreement terms without prior consultation with the relevant trade union. Suggesting that employers
• TUC chief says unions being backed into corner • Urges firms: ‘Don’t disregard worker interests’ • Concedes economy faces ‘peculiar’ situation
OBIE FERGUSON
and unions seek to agree “a common position” on these issues against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, Mr Ferguson said his public call for organised labour to avoid strikes and other forms of industrial action at this challenging time did not mean workers’ interests could be ignored. “If you put a cat up against the wall, and the window and the door are closed, and you harass the cat, that cat is going to come forward,” Mr Ferguson said. “That is the
predicament the unions are in. There’s no consultation with the unions. “When you open a Pandora’s Box all kinds of things could jump out of there. If you’re not aware of what’s in Pandora’s Box, some things could jump out of there and take on a life of their own. It’s not that we plan for it, but there was no consultation with the trade unions. It’s absolutely essential consultation be done, and if that is done it will eliminate a lot of the problems between the
employer and union.” The trade union movement, and Mr Ferguson, have been complaining vigorously since late last year that employers have moved to unilaterally vary employee terms and conditions set by industrial agreements without first consulting the relevant trade union and worker representatives. While many observers may view these grievances as procedural rather than substantive, and ill-timed given that most companies are focused on merely surviving COVID-19’s economic devastation, both public and private sector entities have been accused of doing this.
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