Q4 2020 Market Update

New York City Q4 Market Update

1

1220 PARK AVENUE

Jeremy & Robin Stein Senior Global Real Estate Advisors JEREMY STEIN Associate Broker 917 854 4411 Jeremy.Stein@sothebyshomes.com ROBIN STEIN Associate Broker 917 570 8386 Robin.Stein@sothebyshomes.com

Led by its two principals and co-founders Jeremy and Robin Stein, the Stein Team has been repeatedly recognized as the #1 Producing Sales Team for Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. in New York City, a Top 5 Sales Team companywide and a Top 75 Team in the United States by The Wall Street Journal.

They have been featured in publications such as The New York Times, New York Daily News, The Wall Street Journal, The Real Deal, The New York Post and Avenue Magazine.

In an ever-changing market as competitive as New York City, it can be difficult to find a brokerage team that is knowledgeable, respected, trustworthy, and professional. The Stein Team has consistently maintained all of those qualities and more, never wavering in their steadfast commitment to their clients and upholding exceptional integrity in all that they do.

The team is rounded out by Sales Associate, Jennifer Henson; Sales Associate, Marc Fichera; And Sales Associate, Karen Moreau. Through the combined talents of the team, The Stein Team is positioned to assist clients with the highest level of service available. steinnewyork . com

Meet The Team

JENNIFER HENSON Licensed Salesperson

MARC FICHERA Licensed Salesperson

KAREN MOREAU Licensed Salesperson

AMANDA SAPIO Marketing Coordinator

3

Testimonials “ My wi fe a n d I h ave u s e d Ro b i n a n d Je re my S te i n a s o u r re a l e st ate b ro ke r s fo r t h e p a st 15 ye a r s , re p re s e n t i n g u s i n t h e s a l e o f fo u r apartme nts in New York City. We have used t h e S te i n Te a m to re p re s e n t u s b e c a u s e o f t h e i r p r o f e s s i o n a l i s m , m a r ke t k n o wl e d g e , h a rd wo rk a n d a b i l i t y to m ax i m i z e va l u e. In every instance, they have dedicated the a p p r o p r i a t e r e s o u r c e s , t i m e a n d e ff o r t i n managing the sale process resulting in a successful transaction.”

- THOM AS

“Je re my and Robin are the only people that I wo u l d t r u s t a s my b r o ke r s . T h e y t a ke t h e time to understand precisely what I am l o o k i n g f o r, a n d a s a r e s u l t , c o n s t a n t l y d e l i ve r t h e r i g h t s t u ff. W h e t h e r I ’ m o n t h e b u y s i d e o r t h e s e l l s i d e, Je re my a n d Ro b i n always protect my inte rests, yet stil l manage to get the deal done. B oth their strategy and exe c u t i o n a re b r i l l i a n t , a n d t h e re ’ s n o o n e else I’d want in my corne r whe n it comes to reside ntial real estate.”

- ERIC

“Je re my

and

Ro b i n

are

professional,

k n owl e d ge a b l e a n d ex t r e m e l y e ffe c t i ve. In a d d i t i o n , we a lways kn ow t h at t h ey wi l l p u t our interests first. Twice, they have tal ked us out of purchasing homes, and each time s o m e t h i n g b e t te r c a m e a l o n g l a te r, j u s t a s they had suggested it would. We recomme nd Je re my and Robin wholehearted ly.”

- E D & L AUR E N

“ T h a n k yo u fo r t h e g re a t j o b yo u a n d yo u r te a m d i d i n h e l p i n g to s e l l o u r h o m e. We always felt wel l supported, from our earliest meetings through the final closing. The time, e ff o r t , e n e r g y a n d f o c u s t h a t yo u s h owe d re a l ly m a d e a d i ffe re n c e, a n d we a p p re c i ate t h e h i g h l eve l o f c o m m u n i c a t i o n wi t h yo u r t e a m t h r o u g h o u t t h e p r o c e s s . We wo u l d highly recommend your group in the future!”

- MI CH A E L & L AUR I E

“Yo u r b ro ke r b e c o m e s t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t p e r s o n i n yo u r l i fe wh e n fi n d i n g a h o m e fo r yo u r fa m i ly. Je re my a n d Ro b i n we re tr u ste d advisors during these times in our life. I wouldn’t trust anyone else with that responsibility.”

- WILL 5

8 East 96th Street, 12AB

Market Overview {Q4 | 2020}

manhattan The fourth quarter of 2020 resulted in an uptick in the real estate market after a difficult full year. Sales increased 18% compared to the third quarter, however, was still down 30% compared to the prior year. Average prices were suppressed by 17.9% compared to the prior quarter, but only 5% compared to Q4 2019. Median prices showed further resilience, increasing 4% compared to the prior year.

Looking at the full year, after the real estate market shut down for four months only to reopen during the slower summer period, Manhattan saw average sales prices fall by 7%, while

1,898 Closed Sales

-30

%

Change in Closed Sales {2020 v 2019}

1.79M

$

the number of sold properties declined by 34% year-over-

Average Sales Price

year. As the market continues to adjust due to an influx of

-5

inventory compared to the prior year, all price points are being impacted with pricing discounts. According to UrbanDigs, the average discount to original asking price was 7% in Manhattan for the full year of 2020. As the market continues to fight through the impacts of COVID-19, additional inventory represents an opportunity for buyers to enter the market as we step into 2021.

%

Change in Average Sales Price {2020 v 2019}

The ASP compares 2020 to 2019 and can NOT be construed to indicate changes in pricing due to Covid.

Number of Closed Sales vs. Inventory

Average / Median Sales Price

10,000

$3,000,000 $3,000,000

9,000 $2, 500 ,000 $2,500,000

8,000 7,000

$2,000,000 $2, 000,000

6,000 5,000

$1,500,000 $1,500,0 00

4,000 $1,000,000 $1,0 00,000

3,000 2,000

$500,000 $50 0,000

1,000

$$-

-

Q4:18 Q1:19 Q2:19 Q3:19 Q4:19 Q1:20 Q2:20 Q3:20Q4:20

# of Closed Sales

Inventory

Average Sales Price

Median Sales Price

Number of Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

Median Sales Price

{2020 v 2019}

-31%

-1%

-2%

4Q:20

1639

$1.12M

$900K

4Q:19

2378

$1.13M

$920K

{2020 v 2019}

-17%

1%

-1%

4Q:20

241

$4.85M

$4.34M

4Q:19

291

$4.80M

$4.40M

{2020 v 2019}

-53%

-18%

-9%

4Q:20

17

$22.16M

$15.95M

4Q:19

37

$26.88M

$17.50M

{2020 v 2019}

-30%

-5%

4%

4Q:20

1898

$1.79M

$1.04M

4Q:19

2706

$1.88M

$1.00M

UNDER

$3 Million

BETWEEN

$3 - 10 Million

OVER

$10 Million

ALL

Price Points

Overview

/ New York City Q4 Market Update

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Inventory All New York City

5.3%

15.5%

9.5%

23.3%

Number of Active Listings 392 706 1,736 1,845 1,621 1,156

21.7%

7,456

$10 Million and Above $5 - 10 Million $2 - 5 Million $1 - 2 Million $600k - 1 Million Under $600k TOTAL

24.7%

CONDOS & CO-OPS

The historic absorption range of equilibrium for the New York City market area is 6-8 months. As the market begins to show signs of normalizing, the uptick in pent-up inventory experienced in Q3 2020 declined by 19.5% as we ended Q4 2020 with 7,456 active units on the market. Based upon sold data from UrbanDigs, the absorption rate of active inventory was 13.5 months in Q4 2020. This statistic means that it would take 13.5 months to absorb the active inventory that is currently on the market based upon the rate of sales over the last 3-months.

Based upon the sales in the last three months of 2020, it will take more than a year to absorb the current inventory priced above $1M, and roughly four years to absorb properties priced above $10M given the current inventory in Manhattan.

50 45 40 35 30

Absorption Rate

25 20

Line of Equilibrium

15

Absorption

10 5 0

Under $600k $600k - $1M

$1M - $2M

$2M - $5M

$5M - $10M

$10M+

The absorption rate is calculated by taking the total number of currently active listings and dividing by the average number of closed sales over the 3-month period. The active inventory is based upon UrbanDigs data as of 12/31/2020.

Average Days on Market Listing Discount

All New York City

Average Days on Market Listing Discount

Q4 2018

Q1 2019

Q2 2019

Q3 2019

Q4 2019

Q1 2020

Q2 2020

Q3 2020

Q4 2020

112

112

131

113

112

127

152

154

139

-4.6%

-5.1%

-5.3%

-5.4%

-4.9%

-5.2%

-5.8%

-6.8%

-7.1%

Average Days on Market vs. Listing Discount 180

0.0%

160

-1.0%

140

-2.0%

120

-3.0%

100

-4.0%

80

-5.0%

60 40

-6.0%

20

-7.0% -8.0%

0

Q3:18

Q4:18

Q1:19

Q2:19

Q3:19

Listing Discount

Q4:19

Q1:20

Q2:20

Q3:20

Q4:20

Average Days on Market

Overview

/ New York City Q4 Market Update

7

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w i n e i s a n e v e r- e n d i n g j o u r n e y. sothebyswine.com

AUCTION • RETAIL • ADVISORY New York Hong Kong London

AUCTION • RETAIL • ADVISORY New York Hong Kong London

The Luxury Market All New York City Co-Ops & Condos Over $10M

Closed Sales Count, Average Sales Price & Highest Sales Price

Q4 2018

Q1 2019

Q2 2019

Q3 2019

Q4 2019

Q1 2020

Q2 2020

Q3 2020

Q4 2020

63

48

109

43

28

39

34

28

17

Average Sales Price

$22.08M

$24.32M

$16.94M

$24.01M

$32.76M

18.01M

30.02M

32.62M

22.16M

Highest Sales Price

$73.80M

$240.0M

$51.55M

$65.75M

$92.74M

52.19M

56.26M

99.90M

65.60M

# of Closed Sales

The luxury market above $10M continued to struggle as we close out the year in Q4 2020 with 17 properties sold, a decline of 62% compared to the prior year and the prior quarter where both periods saw 28 units sold. The average price in this segment of the market fell 68% from $32.8M to $22.2M. The number of sold properties above $10M was cut in half for 2020 compared to 2019, 119 vs. 228.

With that in mind, at the end of December 2020 there are currently more than 350 properties listed for sale above this price point; comparing the inventory to the number of luxury sales in the last 12-months, this amount of inventory would take approximately 3-years to sell. Strong buildings such as 220 Central Park South, continue to benefit from contracts placed prior to the COVID shut down as it saw the highest sold unit at $65,593,100, which was a 7,911 duplex unit that was originally listed for $85M in the 18th Amendment filed with the Attorney General. This would represent a discount of 23%, and a sales price per interior square foot of $8,291. s ot h ebys r ea lty.c o m

Average Sales Price vs. # of Closed Sales $35,000,000

120

$30,000,000

100

$25,000,000

80

$20,000,000 60 $15,000,000 40

$10,000,000

20

$5,000,000 $0

-

Q3:18

Q4:18

Q1:19

Q2:19

Q3:19

# of Closed Sales

Q4:19

Q1:20

Q2:20

Q3:20

Q4:20

Average Sales Price The Luxury Market

/ New York City Q4 Market Update

9

Condos {Q4 | 2020}

manhattan

Condominiums represented 46% of the sold properties in the 4th Quarter of 2020. The average price of the properties sold fell by an average of 6%, however the median price increased by 5% offering a sign of strength in the market below $10M. Average price per square foot fell 10% from $2,081/sf in Q4 2019 to $1,871/sf. There was a 26% decline in the number of sold properties in the fourth quarter from 878 units sold this quarter compared to 1,187 in Q4 2019. Properties priced below $10M supported the condo market’s minimal price correction as the luxury price points continued to compete with additional inventory of new product. Looking at the year in total, 3,388 condos were sold in 2020 compared to 5,260 in 2019, a 35.5% decline.

260 Park Avenue South, PHA

878 Closed Sales

-26

%

Change in Closed Sales {2020 v 2019}

2.57M

$

Average Sales Price

-6

%

Change in Average Sale Price {2020 v 2019}

Number of Closed Sales

Average / Median Sales Price $4,000,000

2,000

$4,000,000

1,800

$3,500,000

$3,500,000

1,600

$3,000,000

$3,000,000

1,400

$2,500,000 $2,500,000

1,200

$2,000,000 $2,000,000

1,000

$1,500,000 $1,500,000

800

$1,000,000 $1,000,000

600

$500,000

400

$500,000

$0

200

$0

-

Average Sales Price

Median Sales Price

Number of Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

Median Sales Price

Average Price/Sq. Ft.

{2020 v 2019}

-29%

0%

4%

-3%

4Q:20

664

$1.43M

$1.30M

$1,370

4Q:19

938

$1.42M

$1.25M

$1,410

{2020 v 2019}

-8%

0%

0%

-1%

4Q:20

201

$4.87M

$4.40M

$2,188

4Q:19

219

$4.88M

$4.40M

$2,202

{2020 v 2019}

-57%

-12%

-3%

-22%

4Q:20

13

$25.39M

$18.30M

$4,877

4Q:19

30

$28.71M

$18.93M

$6,284

{2020 v 2019}

-26%

-6%

5%

-10%

4Q:20

878

$2.57M

$1.65M

$1,871

4Q:19

1,187

$2.75M

$1.58M

$2,081

UNDER

$3 Million

BETWEEN

$3 - 10 Million

ABOVE

$10 Million

ALL

Price Points

Condos

/ New York City Q4 Market Update

11

Co-Ops {Q4 | 2020}

manhattan

While Co-ops represented 54% of the market, the property type struggled in the 4th Quarter as the number of units sold fell by 33% from 1,519 sold in Q4 2019 to 1,019 in Q4 2020. Similar to condos, the average prices for sold properties fell by 8%, from $1.2M in Q4 2019 to $1.11M in Q4 2020, while properties priced between $3M and $10M offered a glimmer of strength as prices increased by 4% from $4.56M in Q4 2019 to $4.72M in Q4 2020. Across Manhattan, co-op’s median price fell by double digits from $850k to $760k in Q4 2020, an 11% decline. This as co-op sales fell nearly 50% for the entire 2020 year compared to 2019, from 6,388 in 2019 to 4,271 in 2020.

Co-op prices for the full year fell by 6% compared to 2019, from $1.28M to $1.20M.

244 Madison Avenue, Upper PH

1,019 Closed Sales

-33

%

Change in Closed Sales {2020 v 2019}

1.11M

$

Average Sales Price

-8

%

Change in Average Sales Price {2020 v 2019}

Number of Closed Sales

Average / Median Sales Price

2,000

$1,600,000

1,800

$1,400,000

1,600

$1,200,000

1,400 $1,000,000 1,200 $800,000

1,000

$600,000

800 600

$400,000

400

$200,000

200

$0

-

Average Sales Price

Median Sales Price

Number of Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

Median Sales Price

{2020 v 2019}

-32%

-3%

-1%

4Q:20

976

$915K

$745K

4Q:19

1,440

$948K

$750K

{2020 v 2019}

-46%

4%

-3%

4Q:20

39

$4.72M

$4.25M

4Q:19

72

$4.56M

$4.39M

{2020 v 2019}

-38%

-34%

-19%

4Q:20

4

$12.50M

$11.00M

4Q:19

7

$19.01M

$13.60M

{2020 v 2019}

-33%

-8%

-11%

4Q:20

1,019

$1.11M

$760K

4Q:19

1,519

$1.20M

$850K

UNDER

$3 Million

BETWEEN

$3 - 10 Million

ABOVE

$10 Million

ALL

Price Points

Co-Ops

/ New York City Q4 Market Update

13

new york city

Neighborhood Highlights Upper East Side | north of 58th street and south of 96th Street, Fifth Avenue to East End Avenue CONDOS

Q4 2020

Q4 2019

% Change

Closed Sales

151

141

7%

Average Sales Price

$2.27M

$1.90M5

20%

Median Sales Price

$1.55M

$1.50M

4%

Q4 2020

Q4 2019

% Change

284

410

-31%

Average Sales Price

$1.32M

$1.56M

-15%

Median Sales Price

$745K

$958K

-22%

COOPS Closed Sales

Upper West Side | north of 58th Street and south of 110th Street, CPW to Riverside Drive (including CPS) CONDOS

Q4 2020

Q4 2019

% Change

Closed Sales

177

187

-5%

Average Sales Price

$3.66M

$5.42M

-33%

Median Sales Price

$1.94M

$1.68M

15%

Q4 2020

Q4 2019

% Change

204

298

-31%

Average Sales Price

$1.23M

$1.38M

-11%

Median Sales Price

$940K

$925K

2%

COOPS Closed Sales

Midtown | north of 34th Street and south of 57th Street CONDOS

Q4 2020

Q4 2019

% Change

Closed Sales

107

167

-36%

Average Sales Price

$2.10M

$1.60M

29%

Median Sales Price

$1.20M

$1.03M

17%

Q4 2020

Q4 2019

% Change

123

229

-46%

Average Sales Price

$748K

$769K

-3%

Median Sales Price

$600K

$650K

-8%

COOPS Closed Sales

Uptown | north of 96th Street on the East Side and north of 110th Street on the West Side CONDOS

Q4 2020

Q4 2019

% Change

Closed Sales

83

126

-34%

Average Sales Price

$1.00M

$919K

9%

Median Sales Price

$800K

$847K

-6%

Q4 2020

Q4 2019

% Change

77

157

-51%

Average Sales Price

$541K

$563K

-4%

Median Sales Price

$405K

$484K

-16%

COOPS Closed Sales

Neighborhood Highlights

/ New York City Q4 Market Update

15

new york city

Neighborhood Highlights Downtown | South of 34th Street through TriBeCa CONDOS

Q4 2020

Q4 2019

% Change

Closed Sales

309

492

-37%

Average Sales Price

$2.84M

$3.02M

-6%

Median Sales Price

$2.14M

$2.37M

-10%

Q4 2020

Q4 2019

% Change

323

405

-20%

Average Sales Price

$1.13M

$1.22M

-7%

Median Sales Price

$810K

$815K

-1%

COOPS Closed Sales

Financial District / Battery Park CONDOS

Q4 2020

Q4 2019

% Change

Closed Sales

52

74

-29%

Average Sales Price

$1.72M

$1.49M

15%

Median Sales Price

$1.42M

$1.17M

21%

Q4 2020

Q4 2019

% Change

7

20

-64%

Average Sales Price

$924K

$824K

12%

Median Sales Price

$695K

$755K

-8%

COOPS Closed Sales

Total Number of Sales by Neighborhood 1,600 1,400

Upper East Side

1,200

Upper West Side

1,000

Midtown

800 600

Downtown

400

Uptown

200

FiDi / Battery Park

0

Q3:18

Q4:18

Q1:19

Q2:19

Q3:19

Q4:19

Q1:20

Q2:20

Q3:20

Q4:20

Average Sales Price by Neighborhood $4,000,000 $3,500,000

Upper East Side

$3,000,000

Upper West Side

$2,500,000

Midtown

$2,000,000

Downtown

$1,500,000

Uptown

$1,000,000

FiDi / Battery Park

$500,000 $0

Q3:18

Q4:18

Q1:19

Q2:19

Q3:19

Q4:19

Q1:20

Q2:20

Neighborhood Highlights

Q3:20

Q4:20

/ New York City Q4 Market Update

17

Current Offerings 9 ST. LU K E ’ S P L AC E West Village | $11,750,000

Select Current Offerings

1 8 8 S U L L I VA N ST R E E T Greenwich Village | $9,995,000

1 3 1 E A ST 9 2 N D ST R E E T Upper East Side | $8,995,000

4 3 5 E A ST 5 2 N D ST R E E T, A P T. 9 B Beekman | $5,950,000

1 3 6 E A ST 6 4 T H ST R E E T, A P T. 1 0 E Lenox Hill | $3,800,000

7

Select Sales 7 H U B E R T ST R E E T TriBeCa | Sold Price $20,000,000

Select Sales

14 E A ST 1 1 T H ST R E E T Greenwich Village | Sold Price $28,000,000

1 7 3 M AC D O U G A L ST R E E T Greenwich Village | Sold Price $4,200,00

2 1 1 E L I Z A B E T H ST R E E T SoHo | Sold Price $2,000,00

9 7 5 PA R K AV E N U E Upper East Side | Sold Price $2,050,00

9

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