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SUNDAY, AUGUST 13, 2017 Adelle Chua, Editor
Opinion
Joyce Pangco Pañares, Issue Editor
mst.daydesk@gmail.com
OPEC SWINGS TO PANIC STATIONS
EDITORIAL
STRONGER TOGETHER?
T
HE Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which had just turned 50, held its meetings here last week. There were the usual photo opportunities, the long meetings, the dinners and pleasantries. It was exciting to see how the regional organization evolved and how far it has become. Indeed it has seen the emergence of Southeast Asia not just as a political bloc but an economic hub, with its rich and diverse resources and human capital.
At the end of the event, the foreign ministers of the 10 member countries came up with a joint statement that highlighted cooperation amid a dynamic world. The Philippines, as this year’s chairman of the regional organization, did a good job of playing host to its fellow members—it did not quite do
as well, however, in asserting its own interest and leading the group to be a more assertive player in global politics, especially in the issue of standing up to its neighbor, China. Three other Asean members—Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam—have overlapping territorial claims with China. Beijing has consistently claimed as much as 90 percent of the South China Sea and has in fact built structures on some of the disputed lands, or built man-made islands. The Philippines, specifically, has raised the issue of intrusion into the disputed waters with the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, which, for its part, agreed with us and told China it had no legal basis for its claims. Unfortunately, such a favorable ruling seems to have gotten lost on this administration. Amid calls for a stronger statement that would assert the PCA verdict, the Asean foreign ministers instead opted to be diplomatic about the entire issue even as it decried militarization in the South China Sea. They and China agreed they would work toward a Code of Conduct for the region, but there are no indications such a code would be legally binding. Our own Foreign Affairs Secretary Alan
By Julian Lee
Peter Cayetano explains: “We do not like the actions of some players including China in the past, but we need to have progress. If you go back in the past just to scold, it’s regressive.” But nobody is saying the region should scold China—as if that approach would work on a country like it. Scolding is altogether different from asserting one’s position and telling the parties concerned we are aware of what is due us and expect some respect. The region is composed of countries of varying economic profiles, demographics, and political muscle. Individually, it has strong states and fragile ones. Some are able to define their future while some are left helpless before external forces. Collectively, Asean has the mandate and moral responsibility to ensure basic rights of its citizens are respected, and that no injustice occurs to its people. It is still being criticized for its silence on the plight of the Rohingya people in Myanmar. Today, on the issue of China, it might feel it has taken the safe, diplomatic road. Unfortunately, diplomacy works only with those who understand that others are equally entitled to rights and respect.
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SAN FRANCISCO BOOKSTORES POP GOES THE WORLD JENNY ORTUOSTE
SAN FRANCISCO, California—The City by the Bay has a vibrant, thriving literary culture that supports quite a few interesting indie bookstores, and any book lover will enjoy exploring their well-stocked shelves. As a newcomer to this city, I have
the pleasure of discovering many of these stores for the first time. The thrill of walking into a place stocked full of books, with quirky décor and posters covering the walls, is an order of magnitude greater than stepping into a chain bookstore like Barnes & Noble,
which, like Starbucks, manages to look the same wherever it’s located. Here’s a rundown of some of the bookstores you should visit when in SF: • City Lights Bookstore: This is the Turn to B2
OPEC’s job of rebalancing the oil market has just got a lot more difficult. Not only is there a lot more oil in storage than it previously thought, but the group will need to make deeper output cuts to drain the excess. A month ago, Opec oil ministers had probably read the International Energy Agency’s monthly report with a sense of quiet confidence. It showed the world would need more oil than the group was producing for the rest of this year and next. And, as long as producers held their nerve— and their discipline—inventories would continue to fall. That is no longer the case. Expectations of solid inventory draws have flipped to continued stock builds through 2018. So the latest report from the Paris-based IEA, published on Friday, is a nasty shock. It has just found another 230 million barrels of oil in storage that will need to be drained before balance is restored. That is a lot of oil. To put it in perspective, it increases the build-up in inventories since the beginning of 2014 by almost 25 percent. An output cut of 1 million barrels a day would take another six months to drain it. To be sure, commercial oil inventories in the OECD—the only ones we can see with any clarity— are getting closer to the five-year average level targeted by Opec. The gap between OECD stockpiles and their five-year average level has narrowed by a third since February. The overhang narrowed to 84 million barrels in June. But before you get too excited, well over half of the narrowing of the gap is because the five-year average increased. The actual draw in inventories has been a much more modest 37 million barrels. An increase in the target has done more than actual inventory draws to reduce the excess. How do you suddenly find 230 million barrels of oil? By realizing that the countries who were driving demand growth over the past couple of years weren’t driving it as fast as you thought. The IEA also cut its assessment of 2016 demand in non-OECD countries by 420,000 barrels a day, with China accounting for more than a quarter of that. With no similar reduction in its assessment of supply, all of the oil that was not consumed, around 157 million barrels, must have gone into storage. The rest comes from the smaller revisions that the IEA made to its 2015 demand numbers. The difference this makes to Opec is hard to overestimate. The biggest hit is coming right now. Based on the latest figures, the IEA now expects global stockpiles to rise this quarter—not fall. A forecast for a small draw in the final quarter would leave global inventories unchanged over the second half of 2017. And next year suddenly looks a lot worse than it did a month ago, too. If Opec’s current aggregate production level is carried forward for the whole of 2018, global oil inventories would rise by around 170 million barrels. That’s about six times as big as the inventory drawdown for 2017. Saudi oil minister Khalid Al-Falih may already be preparing the ground for deeper cuts. That possibility was raised during a joint press conference in Jeddah with his Iraqi counterpart on Thursday, according to a report in Asharq al-Awsat. Don’t be surprised if you hear more along these lines in the runup to Opec’s next full ministerial meeting in November. Bloomberg
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SAN FRANCISCO...
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mothership. It was founded in 1953 by beat poet Lawrence Ferlinghetti and Peter Martin. The shop has a homey, vintage vibe to it, with posters and hand-drawn signs on the walls and windows—a famous one reads: “Stash your sell-phone and be here now.” The ground level features fiction, non-fiction, and literary magazines. The second floor is the poetry section, showcasing the works of beat poets that Ferlinghetti associated with—Jack Kerouac, Allan Ginsberg. Postcards of these and other personages fill a rack; they make great souvenirs. Take a selfie while sitting in the “poet’s chair.” City Lights also has a basement where they keep memoirs, mysteries, and other genres. They also have store-brand tote-bags and journals. Right outside is Jack Kerouac Alley, with quotes in brass letters embedded in the pavement. • Dog-Eared Books: Outside the branch on Valencia Street in the Mission District are big bins of discounted books. Inside it’s large and airy, and has an excellent selection of new and used literary works. Their foreign language selection is interesting—Baudelaire in the original, anyone? If nothing catches your fancy, check out the handy messenger-style totes emblazoned with the shop logo. • Borderland Books: It’s also on Valencia. It sells new and used science fiction, fantasy, and horror. There’s a coffee shop right next door that patrons can access through the bookshop. Get the latest releases and new editions of classics—I came away with a collection of Dorothy Sayers short stories. They carry an eclectic selection, from Rhys Bowen’s “On Her Majesty’s Frightfully Secret Service” to Tolkien’s just-released “Beren and Luthien.” The shop’s postcards show covers of pulp fiction books. • Green Apple Books: This place is huge and crammed to the gills with books, old and new. Be prepared to spend serious browsing time here. If you enjoy the hunt and are patient, you can find great bargains in all genres. There’s a record store next door for those who love vinyl. • Kinokuniya Bookstore: Located in Japantown, this store carries a wide selection of mangas; I got copies of Fruits Basket and Black Butler for my children here. They also have Japanese stationery, art supplies, and a well-regarded stock of graphic design books. The upper floor has English-language books and other merchandise. Try the restaurants in the area, and look for the shops that sell incense and mochi. • Forest Books: also in Japantown, this is a small, cozy place. They are known for their selection of books on Buddhism and other Asian religions; Asian, Native American, and African history and culture; and Western philosophy. The vibe is very Zen. Do take a souvenir bookmark to remind you of your visit here. • Alexander Book Company: Racks of discounted books are placed outside and I’ve spent quite some time browsing and picking up quite a few bargains there, before even entering the shop! They have a shelf for literary magazines such as McSweeney’s and Granta. There are sections dedicated to mysteries, African-American romances, classics, literary fiction, history, and travel—and that’s just on the first floor (they have three). They also have a great selection of Moleskine notebooks, calendars, postcards, and Penguin Book-themed merchandise. It’s where I saw “Manila Noir,” an anthology of crime stories written by Filipinos, prominently displayed near the entrance when it was first released. • Book Passage: This is in the Ferry Building and one set of doors opens right out onto the pier area. Seagulls flit by and there’s a bracing sea tang in the air. Inside, it’s warm and cozy. Find the latest here, from bestsellers to cookbooks and SF travel guides. Their tote bags are packable! There are other bookstores in the area that I mean to visit, among them Alley Cat Books on 24th Street, The Booksmith on Haight, and Bird & Beckett Books (they have jazz nights!). There are quite a few others that you can look up online. If you had time to visit only one, I suggest City Lights Bookstore because of its historic value and its ties to the Beat Generation. There is much to explore in this beautiful city, and the bookstores are among the best places to be. Dr. Ortuoste is a California-based writer. Follow her on Facebook: Jenny Ortuoste, Twitter: @jennyortuoste, Instagram: @jensdecember, @ artuoste
THE ALTERNATIVE TO NUCLEAR WAR IS A REVOLUTION
Not part of the solution. AFP
By Eli Lake THE most depressing aspect of the current North Korean crisis is that even if Donald Trump wins, he loses. Despite doubling down on his rhetoric of “fire and fury” and deriding his predecessors for failed negotiations, Trump looks like he wants to eventually strike a deal with the nation’s tyrant, Kim Jong Un. Just look at what Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is doing. Trump threatens war and Tillerson promises no regime change. Remember it was only a few months ago that Trump said he would be honored to meet with Kim. The president’s recent bellicosity aims for deterrence and leverage. In substance, if not style, this is very similar to how past administrations have approached the Hermit Kingdom: threaten, cajole and bargain. “This is Obama plus,” Michael Auslin, a Korea expert at the Hoover Institution, told me. “It’s the same path of enhanced sanctions with the potential carrot of direct negotiations and trying to reassure our allies. There is not much different here.” And it’s easy to understand why talks are better than war. The prospect of a military confrontation is too horrific. North Korea effectively holds its neighbor to the south as a hostage because of its conventional military capabilities. This says nothing of allies like Japan, or US forces stationed on the peninsula. And the critics of war are correct. A pre-emptive strike is not worth the risk. But neither is another deal. There are a few reasons for this. First, the North Koreans don’t keep their promises. Nearly every commitment the regime has made to the US, its allies and China, it has violated.
It’s no mystery why North Korea continues to negotiate. The nation needs help from the outside to survive. The regime has pursued nuclear weapons as an insurance policy to stay in power, and since the 1990s US administrations have enticed Pyongyang with fuel shipments, removing sanctions and promises to leave it alone. In exchange, Pyongyang makes empty promises about nuclear weapons. An agreement with North Korea makes America and its allies a partner in the regime’s oppression of its own people. And this repression is beyond the pale. A UN report from 2014 estimated there are 80,000 to 120,000 political prisoners who are slowly starved, tortured and subjected to forced labor in four prison camps so large you can see them in satellite images taken in space. This says nothing of the public and private executions in the state or the forced disappearances, or the punishment of whole families for the alleged crimes of individuals. Americans should rightfully want their government to undermine this gulag state, not help preserve it with another negotiated compromise. Then there is the tyrant himself, Kim Jong Un. He is in every respect a rogue. It’s not just his threats, or his assassination of his relatives. Kim’s regime detained an American student, Otto Warmbier, and sent him back to the US this year only when he was in a coma. He died soon after returning home. Negotiating with such a man presents a moral hazard. If Kim gets more inducements to negotiate, what’s to stop him from conducting more abductions or assassinations on foreign soil in the future? All of this is to say that Trump is posturing in pursuit of a deal, and
even if he reached one, he would fail to address the cause of the North Korean crisis: the regime itself. There are no easy answers here. Invading North Korea would risk a major war with China, not to mention commit the US to keeping the peace on the peninsula at a time when most Americans are rightly weary of military adventurism. While it would be nice to think our intelligence agencies could foment a coup, this too is more spy fiction than a realistic foreign policy. CIA Director Mike Pompeo has created a new intelligence center to focus on North Korea, but the US has notoriously had little success in recruiting agents inside the country. US intervention would also deprive Koreans themselves of authoring their own liberation. So traditional “regime change” should be off the table. But this should not stop the US and its allies from helping to create conditions for the day when Koreans can take their country back. This requires some patience and imagination. The imaginative part is to continue to give North Koreans a glimpse of a better future. Tom Malinowski, who served as President Barack Obama’s assistant secretary of state for democracy, human rights and labor, wrote in Politico in June that the US should continue to flood North Korea with information. This may sound strange. But in recent years, the state’s ability to control information has waned. More and more Koreans living there have access to portable DVD players and cell phones, which are tools to break the state’s control over the minds of their citizens. One organization, known as No Chain, is run by North Korean defector and former dissident Jung Gwang-Il. No Chain sends helicopter
drones with the portable players, along with content like South Korean soap operas, over the border into the country. Malinowski told me that when he was at the State Department the US government spent around $3 million a year to support similar kinds of organizations. The budget for these programs in the next year will be around $5 million. The US should be spending at least 10 times as much on this. This effort should also include workshops for North Korean defectors on nonviolent conflict, similar to the training the US State Department provided to Serbs before their citizens organized the ouster of Slobodan Milosevic in 2000. To be sure, feeding information into North Korea is not a silver bullet. It’s impossible to predict the timing of popular revolutions. But it is possible to predict the outcome: a revolution would prevent a catastrophic war. “Just as with the Cold War, the only sustainable solution is when the North Korean people will be able to take matters into their own hands,” Malinowski told me. “We can’t make that happen. We have to be very careful with the ‘regime change’ rhetoric. But we can help to accelerate the process that is already under way, namely the process of raising consciousness inside the country.” That may sound like a long shot. It is one. But consider the alternative. For nearly 25 years, the US and its allies have threatened North Korea, cajoled North Korea and “won” by reaching deals with North Korea. And yet the regime continues to build nuclear weapons and blackmail the rest of the world. It’s time for a change in Washington as well as Pyongyang. Bloomberg
CHINA TAKES ON STATE-OWNED FIRMS By Christopher Balding A LITTLE-NOTICED statement last week could portend the next big battle in China’s effort to control its debt. On Aug. 2, the finance ministry issued directives that state-owned companies improve returns, control risks and make sure that “projects are financially viable before decisions are made.” That the government feels the need to spell out such obvious goals tells you the depth of the problem. China’s sprawling array of stateowned enterprises—with millions of employees across all sectors of the economy—may be the biggest obstacle to its broader effort at financial reform. Previous attempts to rein them in have largely failed. But if the government has any hope of real deleveraging, this time will have to be different. SOEs are huge, and so are their liabilities. They’re responsible for nonfinancial corporate debt equal to 90 percent of gross domestic product. Facing limited competitive pressure, they’ve driven the worst of China’s debt-led excess: Return on assets for these firms in 2016 was a paltry 2.9 percent, compared to 10.2 percent in
the private sector. One reason is that China’s banking industry, which is itself almost exclusively state-owned, channels loans to SOEs in the expectation that they’ll have an implicit government guarantee. SOEs provide only 16 percent of China’s jobs and less than a third of its output, but they receive an astonishing 30 percent of all loans. With credit so easily available, they have little incentive to economize. They’re also burdened with conflicts of interest. Despite the new directive to focus on profitability, SOEs are still subject to orders from Party committees that sit above their corporate boards. Some firms have chafed at this arrangement, but in general political objectives—such as maximizing local employment—take priority over profits. Party leaders even refer to privatization as “wrongheaded thinking.” China’s “Belt and Road” initiative offers a case in point. Even amid a broad crackdown on overseas investment, firms are being prodded to plow hundreds of billions of dollars into the initiative—mostly for unprofitable infrastructure projects—while simultaneously being told to prioritize
return on investment. They can be forgiven for being a little confused. Given all these challenges, complying with the new directives will be difficult. Regulators have tried numerous reform strategies in the past. One has been to merge multiple inefficient SOEs, in the unlikely hope that combined they will create one efficient SOE. Another has been to draw distinctions between “commercial” and “public service” SOEs, hoping to give the former some private sector-like flexibility. But as long as these companies can fall back on favorable bank loans, the impetus to improve efficiency will be limited. Public-private partnerships are the latest trend. Chinese listings on Hong Kong’s stock exchanges are now dominated by companies with government shareholders. But a public listing by itself doesn’t necessarily impose market discipline; SOEs tend to sell only small stakes to private investors, often as a way to inject badly needed capital or even to disguise debt. Will this latest effort prove any more effective? In 2015, at the height of the stock market boom, a report from China’s National Audit Office criticized SOEs in similar terms. Yet
two years later, government control has only tightened and SOE revenue has been driven up primarily through higher defense spending. Reform this time around will likely prove just as challenging. A better approach starts with recognizing that using state-linked firms as a social-welfare system only hampers development. A vast amount of capital is being misallocated to dying industries, while China’s energetic small businesses receive less than a third of corporate loans. The “iron rice bowl” is great for the lucky workers who secure lifetime jobs at SOEs, but it limits opportunities for everyone else. A related goal should be to have more faith in private enterprise. China is producing world-class companies, from tech firms such as Tencent Holdings Ltd. to leading smartphone manufacturers such as Huawei Technologies Co. Even its restaurants are minting billionaires by focusing on customer service and eschewing IPOs. Investment should be flowing to these enterprises rather than to state-run behemoths that will never be productive or profitable. Make that happen and China’s challenges start to look a lot less daunting. Bloomberg
World
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SUNDAY, AUGUST 13, 2017 mst.daydesk@gmail.com
PORTUGAL BATTLING FRESHWILDFIRES ONWARMWEEKEND ABRANTES, Portugal—Portugal was battling a new rash of forest fires ahead of a weekend of warm temperatures, as authorities warned of further blazes. Some 1,800 firefighters backed by hundreds of vehicles were trying to douse around 10 fires across the country, authorities said Friday. “Despite the relentless fires, the situation is now more stable,” said civil protection agency spokeswoman Patricia Gaspar in Lisbon. Emergency workers had nearly gained control of wildfires across Portugal’s drought-hit central region on Thursday, but stronger winds fanned flames in several areas. In the village of Bracal, flames were being blown towards houses as residents grabbed what they could to aid firefighters, an AFP journalist said. Some residents voiced anger at authorities after a season of repeated wildfires which have stretched resources. “Firefighters can’t perform miracles, they are exhausted,” said Lucia Ricardo, who lives in Bracal, close to the central town of Abrantes. Six villages had been evacuated around Abrantes on Thursday as fire-dousing planes flew sorties over the flames. Another blaze near Grandola, in the southern Setubal district, needed 200 firefighters to bring it under control after burning through around 3,000 hectares (30 square kilometers) of forest. AFP
KUWAIT ARRESTS 12 OVER TIES TO IRAN AND HEZBOLLAH KUWAIT CITY—Kuwaiti authorities on Saturday arrested 12 convicted members of a “terrorist cell” with ties to Iran and Lebanon’s Shiite movement Hezbollah after a weeks-long manhunt. The interior ministry said the 12 had been captured in different areas across Kuwait. They had been on the run since their sentencing last month, while two other convicted Kuwaitis remained at large. The supreme court in Sunni-ruled Kuwait, which has a sizable Shiite minority, in June overturned an acquittal by an appeals court and convicted 21 Shiites of forming a “terrorist cell” with ties to Iran and Hezbollah. The cell had planned to launch attacks across the Gulf state, according to the court verdict. Kuwait has protested to Lebanon over the alleged training of the socalled “Abdali Cell” by Hezbollah, which has ministers in the Beirut government. Last month, authorities expelled 15 Iranian diplomats and shut down the military, cultural and trade missions of the Iranian embassy over Tehran’s backing of the “terrorist cell.” AFP
DALAI LAMA NIXES BOTSWANA TRIP, CITES‘EXHAUSTION’ NEW DELHI—The Dalai Lama has cancelled a trip next week to Botswana because of “exhaustion” after Beijing expressed anger at the African country for allowing the visit. The 82-year-old Tibetan spiritual leader, who lives in exile in India, was to speak at a three day conference in Botswana’s capital Gaborone, which begins on August 17. An official statement released late Friday said the Dalai Lama had written to the president of Botswana and the conference organizers, the Mind and Life Institute, expressing “profound regret” at having to cancel his visit “due to exhaustion.” “His Holiness has reluctantly had to concede that his 82-year-old body was telling him to rest. Since his physicians have also advised him to avoid undertaking long journeys for the next few weeks, His Holiness will return to Dharamsala to recuperate,” the statement said. The Buddhist leader has lived in exile in India since he fled a failed Tibetan uprising in 1959. Botswana said last month that the visit was “purely private” but added that the Dalai Lama would be granted the status of a foreign dignitary. Beijing issued a warning to Botswana, asking the African nation to respect China’s “core interests.” China’s ruling Communist party views the Dalai Lama as a dangerous “separatist” campaigning for Tibetan independence. It consistently condemns other countries which let him visit. AFP
FLIPPING OUT. Palestinian youths practice parkour moves in Gaza City on Friday. AFP
CONTAMINATED EGGS NOW IN ASIA FROM EU B
RUSSELS, Belgium—A scandal involving eggs contaminated with insecticide spread to 15 European Union countries, Switzerland, and as far away as Hong Kong on Friday as the European Commission called for a special meeting on the growing crisis. Ministers and food safety chiefs from around the EU are set to meet on September 26 in a bid to get countries to stop “blaming and shaming” each other over the scare involving the chemical fipronil. Millions of eggs have been pulled from supermarket shelves across Europe and dozens of poultry farms closed since the discovery of fipronil, which can harm human health, was made public on August 1. The issue has sparked a row between Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany, the three countries at the epicenter of the crisis, about how long they knew about the problem. “Blaming and shaming will bring us nowhere and I want to stop this,”
Vytenis Andriukaitis, the European Commissioner for health and food safety, told AFP as he announced the meeting. “We need to work together to draw the necessary lessons and move forward instead.” European Commission spokeswoman Mina Andreeva said that “this is not, let’s be clear, a crisis meeting” and it is being held next month to get “distance to the events.” Fipronil is commonly used to get rid of fleas, lice and ticks from animals but is banned by the European Union from use in the food industry. The EU insists there is no threat to human health, but the World
Health Organization says that when eaten in large quantities it can harm people’s kidneys, liver and thyroid glands. Brussels said the 15 affected EU countries were Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Sweden, Britain, Austria, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Denmark, along with non-EU Switzerland. But in a sign the crisis is going global, Brussels also announced that Hong Kong had received some tainted eggs from the Netherlands, with the southern Chinese city becoming the first place in Asia known to be affected. Hong Kong health minister Sophia Chan said Saturday authorities were “strengthening” inspections of eggs from Europe. As well as dealing with the immediate food safety issue, the EU is also seeking to calm tempers over the egg row after a series of divisive crises in the bloc in recent years, from Brexit to migration. Belgium earlier this week accused the Netherlands of knowing
about the fipronil eggs since November 2016 and failing to notify other countries. On Thursday Dutch Health Minister Edith Schippers admitted the government had made “errors” but denied a cover-up. “We were well aware of a report of the presence of fipronil in the pens of egg-laying hens in November 2016, but there was no indication at the time that fipronil itself was found in the eggs,” said Schippers. A Dutch whistleblower separately said he had told the authorities that Chickfriend, the Dutch company at the center of the scandal, was illegally using fipronil in the treatment of lice in chicken pens in The Netherlands. “I am the anonymous whistleblower,” Nick Hermens told the NPO public broadcaster. A Belgian company, Poultry Vision, has said it provided Chickfriend with the chemical. Dutch and Belgian investigators carried out coordinated raids on several premises on Thursday, arresting two people at Chickfriend. AFP
MERKEL GOES ON GERMANY’S ‘STRANGEST’ CAMPAIGN
This file photo taken on July 7 shows German Chancellor Angela Merkel (right) welcoming French President Emmanuel Macron as he arrives to attend the G20 summit in Hamburg, northern Germany. AFP
BERLIN—German Chancellor Angela Merkel has returned from a three-week Alpine holiday to embark Saturday on what may be the most bizarre election campaign in the country’s post-war history. After months of studiously ignoring the race for the September 24 election, Merkel will kick off a series of rallies across the country with an hour-long speech to supporters in the western city of Dortmund. But just six weeks out from the European Union’s top economic power and most populous nation going to the polls, Germans are barely taking notice of the election. Even after 12 years in power, Merkel, frequently called the world’s most powerful woman and Europe’s de facto leader, looks set for a fourth term. Gone are the warnings of her political demise heard at the height of the 2015 refugee influx, when nearly 900,000 asylum seekers entered the country. Merkel’s conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) lead their closest rivals, the Social Democrats (SPD), by a 12-to-17-point margin, meaning it would take a political earthquake to shift the field at this point. “It is probably the strangest election race in the history of the Federal Republic,” Heribert Prantl of the national broadsheet Sueddeutsche Zeitung wrote this week. “There is no wind, never mind a wind of change.” Merkel’s main challenger, SPD leader
and former European Parliament spokesman Martin Schulz, has led what many commentators call a plodding campaign. But they acknowledge that there is little mood around for renewal, as Germans look out on a turbulent world unsettled by Donald Trump and Brexit. After high-drama election campaigns in the United States, Britain and France, Germans appear relieved that their race is so low-stakes. “The German elections are very difficult to understand from a foreign point of view because there’s hardly any polarization,” political scientist Timo Lochocki of the German Marshall Fund of the US told AFP. Meanwhile the frustrated Social Democrats are faced with an enemy who refuses to engage, with German media nicknaming the lonely Schulz the “Shadowboxer.” “The SPD can’t polarize the campaign alone; the CDU doesn’t answer, so (the campaign) is dying,” said Lochocki. He cited three main reasons for German satisfaction with the status quo: the vigorous health of the economy with solid growth and low unemployment; Merkel’s right-left “grand coalition” government creating broad consensus around contentious issues such as immigration and security; and a pact by mainstream parties to shun the political fringe. The CDU has plumped for a soft-focus campaign centered on patriotism and Merkel herself. AFP
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SUNDAY, AUGUST 13, 2017 Cesar Barrioquinto, Editor / Jimbo Gulle, Issue Editor
World
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XI TO TRUMP: ‘AVOID NOKOR WAR RHETORIC’
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EIJING—Chinese leader Xi Jinping urged US President Donald Trump on Saturday to avoid rhetoric that could inflame tensions with North Korea as an escalating war of words raised global alarm. Xi made the plea in a phone call hours after Trump ramped up his warnings to Pyongyang, saying the Stalinist regime wouldA “truly regret” taking hostile action against the United States. The White House said in a statement that the two leaders “agreed North Korea must stop provocative and escalatory behavior” and that they are both committed to the denuclearization of the peninsula. But the Chinese foreign ministry said Xi urged Trump to avoid “words and deeds” that would “exacerbate” the already-tense situation, exercise restraint and seek a political settlement. Trump has been engaged all week in verbal sparring with the
North over its weapons and missile programmes, as US media reported Pyongyang has successfully miniaturized a nuclear warhead. The Republican billionaire has progressively ramped up the tone throughout the week and on Friday declared that the US military is “locked and loaded.” In a call with Guam Governor Eddie Calvo on Friday, Trump said the US military is prepared to “ensure the safety and security of the people of Guam” in response to Pyongyang’s plans to launch missiles towards the Pacific territory. Japanese media said Tokyo was deploying its Patriot missile defense system following Pyongyang’s threat to fire ballistic mis-
siles over the country towards Guam. In another move that could further fan the flames, satellite photos posted by defense expert Joseph Bermudez suggested that North Korea could be preparing for fresh submarine-based ballistic missile tests. Trump had earlier brandished a threat of unleashing “fire and fury” on Pyongyang, then noted Thursday maybe that statement “wasn’t tough enough.” China, North Korea’s biggest ally and trade partner, has been voicing concern at the mounting exchanges and a state-run newspaper suggested that Beijing should stay neutral if Pyongyang struck the US first. Previously accused by Trump of not doing enough to rein in the authoritarian regime, China voted in favor of a series of wide-sweeping UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea last weekend. According to the Chinese for-
eign ministry, Trump told Xi over the phone that he “fully understands China’s role in the nuclear issue in the Korean Peninsula.” Trump is expected to visit China later this year. The North’s official KCNA news service in an editorial blamed Trump for “driving the situation on the Korean peninsula to the brink of a nuclear war,” calling the US “the heinous nuclear war fanatic.” The saber-rattling has sparked worldwide concerns that a miscalculation by either side could trigger a catastrophic conflict on the Korean Peninsula. Russia and Germany have also urged both sides to tone down the rhetoric. “Military solutions are now fully in place, locked and loaded, should North Korea act unwisely. Hopefully Kim Jong Un will find another path!” Trump wrote Friday from his golf club retreat in New Jersey, where he is on a working vacation. AFP
WEST WING TURNED UPSIDE DOWN WHILE TRUMP ON VACATION WASHINGTON—The West Wing is where it all happens at the White House—historic decisions, power struggles, meetings with foreign leaders. It is the nerve center of American power. The West Wing, which was made even more famous by the award-winning television series of the same name, is home to the Oval Office and the Situation Room, where the president and his top aides meet in a crisis. It also houses the offices of the president’s closest advisors, the White House press corps and the briefing room. But for a week now, the West Wing has been one big construction site. President Donald Trump and his inner circle have decamped. In their place are painters, plumbers and construction workers. The Oval Office is empty—the armchairs where foreign leaders have sat, couches, tables and even the legendary Resolute Desk, under which Caroline Kennedy hid as a child, have all been moved out. Trump is vacationing at his golf club resort in Bedminster, New Jersey. His close aides have temporarily moved to the adjacent Eisenhower Executive Office Building. Like the rest of the White House, the cornerstone of which was laid in 1792, the West Wing needs regular renovations. The main goal of this summer’s work is to update the creaking air conditioning system. AFP
JUDGE THROWS OUT RADIO DJ’S CLAIMS VS TAYLOR SWIFT
COLORFUL SEATS. Workers are seen finishing preparations of the open air cinema “Metalac” in Sarajevo on Friday, just hours before the grand opening ceremony of the 23rd edition of Sarajevo Film Festival. AFP
TRUMP MULLING ‘MILITARY OPTION’ ON VENEZUELA BEDMINSTER, New Jersey—US President Donald Trump said Friday he was considering military options as a response to the escalating crisis in Venezuela, a move the South American country quickly shot down as “craziness.” Washington has slapped sanctions on President Nicolas Maduro and some of his allies, and branded him a “dictator” over his attempts to crush his country’s opposition. Venezuela has in turn accused America of “imperialist aggression.” But Trump’s latest comments were the first sign that he is mulling military intervention. “We have many options for Venezuela, including a possible military option if necessary,” Trump told reporters. “We have troops all over the world in places that are very far away. Venezuela is not very far away and the people are suffering and they’re dying.” Trump said Venezuela’s political crisis was among the topics discussed at the talks he hosted at his golf club in New Jersey with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley. “Venezuela is a mess. It is very dan-
gerous mess and a very sad situation,” Trump said. But if any US military contingency planning is under way, it must be in its early stages. A Pentagon spokesman, Eric Pahon, refused to elaborate on Trump’s comments, adding: “As of right now, the Pentagon has received no orders.” Pahon cautioned that “the military conducts contingency planning for a variety of situations. If called upon, we are prepared to support whole-of-government efforts to protect our national interest and safeguard US citizens.” The White House said Trump would only agree to speak with Maduro “as soon as democracy is restored in that country,” after the Venezuelan leader requested a phone call with the American president. Trump’s military warning came two days after his administration imposed new sanctions on Venezuela, targeting members of a loyalist assembly installed last week to bolster what Washington calls Maduro’s “dictatorship.” General Vladimir Padrino, Venezuela’s defense minister, dismissed the threat as “an act of craziness, an act of supreme extremism.” AFP
BLUE BABY. An Indian child dressed as the Hindu deity Krishna sits on chairs during an enactment competition as part of Krishna Janmashtami celebrations in Bangalore on Saturday. Krishna Janmashtami also known as Gokulashtami, is an annual Hindu festival that celebrates the birth of Krishna, the eighth avatar of Lord Vishnu. AFP
DENVER—A US judge on Friday dismissed claims that pop superstar Taylor Swift got a radio DJ fired, but court proceedings will continue to consider the singer’s allegations that he sexually assaulted her. David Mueller has accused Swift of slandering him to his radio station, which subsequently fired him. Swift is counter-suing Mueller in the civil case, alleging he groped her during a 2013 “meet and greet” session with fans and invited guests before a concert. US District Judge William Martinez agreed with Swift’s attorney who had filed a motion asking for the pop star to be dropped from Mueller’s lawsuit, saying his case should have been against his radio station. Martinez said the eight-person jury will continue to consider allegations from Mueller that Swift’s mother and her radio manager contributed to him losing his job. AFP
US: CUBA MUST PROBE ATTACKS ON DIPLOMATS BEDMINSTER, New Jersey—The United States said Friday it holds Cuba responsible for investigating an apparent sonic attack that left several of its diplomats in need of medical treatment. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the US mission in Havana had not been able to determine who was behind what he called “health attacks” on its staff. But he warned: “We hold the Cubans responsible just as every host country has a responsibility for safety and security of diplomats in their country. “We hold the Cuban authorities responsible for finding out who is carrying out these health attacks not just on our diplomats—as you’ve seen there are cases with other diplomats as well.” The State Department has not said how many of its diplomats were hurt, but in May it ordered two Cubans to leave the Cuban embassy in Washington. AFP