B1
SUNDAY, JULY 30, 2017 Adelle Chua, Editor
Opinion
Joyce Pangco Pañares, Issue Editor
mst.daydesk@gmail.com
IS FACEBOOK BEATING TWITTER? ASK THE BOTS
EDITORIAL
By Leonid Bershidsky JUDGING from reported growth in user numbers, one could conclude that Facebook is beating Twitter in the battle of social networks. Problem is, it’s hard to know how real all those users are. Twitter reported this week that it had 328 million monthly active users at the end of June, the same as at the end of March. Facebook reported 2.01 billion monthly active users, up from 1.94 billion in March. Another measure that the companies now like to stress—the average number of users per day—also showed Facebook ahead. Twitter said its daily active users were up 12 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, without naming an absolute number (Re/Code calculates it’s some 157 million). Facebook said it was up 17 percent to 1.32 billion. On the face of it, Twitter—the purveyor of news about what’s going on in the world right now—appears to have lost out to Facebook’s concept of community-building. Forcing people to be concise and letting them see posts in chronological order proved less attractive than Facebook’s embrace of all kinds of content and insistence on using a non-transparent algorithm to form the news feed. This could prompt me—as someone who has quit Facebook and stuck with Twitter—to complain that people don’t want control over their information consumption, to mock them for being apathetic in the face of the intrusively irrelevant self-launching videos that have made Facebook such an uncomfortable place for me, to ask how they tolerate the proliferation of ads, mindless clickbait and fakes. But I’m not going to do that. Why? Because I don’t trust either company’s numbers. And unlike in the old days of newspapers, when circulations were audited, there’s no way for an outsider to verify them. To understand my skepticism, consider a new report from the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab on the Twitter commentary surrounding a New York Times column headlined “Trump Is His Own Worst Enemy.” It features news bots, pro-Trump bots, anti-Trump bots, a commercial botnet and an online service that allowed users to automate their posts with an “if...then” routine—for example, retweeting posts that contain a certain word or phrase. If any real people were involved in the discussion, they appear to have been heavily out-tweeted. A lot of the discussion on Twitter is exactly as described in the Digital Forensic Lab’s report. It’s close to impossible to determine with any accuracy how much traffic comes from fake accounts. One recent study, using a behavior-based model, estimated that nine percent to 15 percent of active accounts were bots (a lot more than Twitter has reported). That’s still a big range: Based on the company’s latest estimate of monthly active users, it adds up to anywhere between 29.5 million and 49.2 million bots. I assume good faith on Twitter’s part; it just can’t know what’s really going on. Botnet owners are smart. They’re constantly perfecting their techniques for imitating human behavior, staying a step ahead of efforts to detect them. So if, say, Twitter is seeing more growth in average daily users than in end-of month users, it could simply mean that the bots are being used more intensively and efficiently. The trend doesn’t necessarily reflect any change in human usage. The same is true of Facebook. For all the academic interest in catching fake activity, for all the company’s own efforts to remove fake accounts, comprehensive policing is extremely difficult. “Our results indicate that many fake users are classified as real suggesting clearly that fake accounts are mimicking real user behavior
Scan this icon to view the PDF
STOP TALKING ALREADY
W
HEN President Rodrigo Duterte assumed office more than a year ago, one of his first acts was to reach out to the Left in the hopes of ending decades of insurgency.
He appointed known communist figures to his Cabinet and said he would resume talking to the Left, saying that he held its leader, Jose Maria Sison, in high esteem especially since the latter was his teacher at university. In fact, the government freed at least 11 political prisoners before the 2016 peace talks—amid the communists’ demand for the release of some 400 —to show it was going into the peace talks in earnest. For the first time, there was real hope that the communist insurgency would be quelled and lasting peace with the Reds would ensue. The hope was short-lived. Soon the New People’s Army began
attacks in various places in the country, violating the ceasefire that would have otherwise indicated good faith. The negotiations were halted, there was an exchange of bitter words from both sides, compromising the backchannel talks earlier scheduled to save what was left of the peace process. It soon surfaced that the Europebased leaders talking with the government did not have much of an ascendancy over their younger, more combative members on the ground. Mr. Duterte should have paid more attention to this red flag. The last straw was the attack on President Duterte’s security detail in North Cotabato this month. Five soldiers were wounded, and while the President was not there, he took offense at the gall of the rebels to attack the Presidential Security Group. He called off the informal talks right away. He was so incensed that in his State of the Nation Address on Monday, he revealed Sison was suffering from colon cancer and advised him to commit suicide to save money for the Norwegian government. In response, the communist leader said: “I pity him and I am tempted just
to let him go because what he says against me is patently baseless and comes obviously from a sick mind.” “But I still have to answer him to prevent him from misleading the public and rousing them the wrong way. At any rate, he has to look after his mental health and consult with a professional psychiatrist.” Duterte then dared Sison to leave his comfortable life in exile in The Netherlands, return to the Philippines and fight his war here. “What kind of leader is he?” he said, to which Sison said he did not have to prove himself to anybody. These are men we expect to be steeped in ideology, however different these might be. Unfortunately, the only thing they have been able to prove is that nobody is beyond vulnerability to petty and childish tirades. This does not buy them any more credibility. The decision to stop the peace talks is a good one at this point. There has been too much animosity and bad faith. Now, if the leaders of both parties can just stop talking, perhaps there could be a way to pause and think exactly why none of the confidencebuilding measures all these years have so far worked.
Turn to B2
POOLING AROUND LONG STORY SHORT ADELLE CHUA
LIKE most Metro Manila commuters, I happily discovered the wonders of app-based ride-hailing around two years ago. I felt I had no more energy to subject myself daily to the indignities of commuting via train or bus from Quezon City to Makati every day. I also felt I
had had enough of the greedy, choosy, boorish taxi drivers who do their better behaved colleagues a disservice by acting the way they do. Whatever extra money I could earn, I figured, should go to traveling decently. I worked hard. I at least deserved it. I do
not mind scrimping on other things, like food. It is infinitely better to get to the workplace and back home with your sanity intact. If you’re lucky, you would have had enough rest to have quality time with loved ones or do more work when you do get to your destination.
I am sure many others made the same decision based on the above justification. This is why there is widespread anger: How dare the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board threaten to disallow the operation of Transport Network Turn to B2
Rolando G. Estabillo Publisher ManilaStandard
Published Monday to Sunday by Philippine Manila Standard Publishing Inc. at 6/F Universal Re Building, 106 Paseo de Roxas, corner Perea St., Legaspi Village, Makati City. Telephone numbers 832-5554, 832-5556, 832-5558 (connecting all departments), (Editorial) 832-5554, (Advertising) 832-5550. P.O. Box 2933, Manila Central Post Office, Manila. Website: www.thestandard. com.ph; e-mail: contact@thestandard.com.ph
ONLINE
can be accessed at: manilstandard.net
MEMBER
PPI
Philippine Press Institute The National Association of Philippine Newspapers
Benjamin Philip G. Romualdez Former Chief Justice Reynato S. Puno Anita F. Grefal Baldwin R. Felipe Edgar M. Valmorida
Chairman Board Member & Chief Legal Adviser Treasury Manager OIC-Ad Solutions Circulation Manager
Ramonchito L. Tomeldan Chin Wong/Ray S. Eñano Joyce Pangco Pañares Adelle Chua
Managing Editor Associate Editors City Editor Opinion Editor
Emil P. Jurado
Honor Blanco Cabie Night Editor Romel J. Mendez Art Director Roberto Cabrera Chief Photographer
Chairman Emeritus, Editorial Board