Opinion
WITH authoritarian rulers ascendant in many parts of the world, one wonders what must happen for their countries to liberalize. The likes of Vladimir Putin in Russia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey or Xi Jinping in China are entrenched, experienced and not unpopular—so should their opponents simply resign themselves to an openended period of illiberal rule? According to Daniel Treisman, a Ucla political scientist, that’s not necessarily the case. For a recent paper, he analyzed 218 episodes of democratization between 1800 and 2015 and found they were, with some exceptions (such as Danish King Frederick VII’s voluntary acceptance of a constitution in 1848), the result of authoritarian rulers’ mistakes in seeking to hold on to power. The list of these errors is both a useful handbook for authoritarians and a useful reminder that even the most capable of them are fallible, with disastrous consequences for their regimes. According to Treisman, deliberate liberalization— whether to forestall a revolution, motivate people to fight a foreign invader, defeat competing elite groups or make a pact with them —only occurred in up to a third of the cases. In the rest, democratization was an accident: As they set off a chain of events, rulers didn’t intend to relinquish power. Some of them— such as Mikhail Gorbachev, the last Soviet president— have admitted as much. Treisman’s list of mistakes is worth citing in full. There are five basic ones: Hubris: An authoritarian ruler underestimates the opposition’s strength and fails to compromise or suppress it before it’s too late. King Louis Philippe of France was deposed in 1848 after, as Treisman puts it, turning “a series of reform banquets into revolution by refusing even mild concessions.” Romanian Communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu was making a routine speech when he realized he was being overthrown. Indonesian President Muhammad Suharto believed he could get the country under control right up to the moment of his resignation. Needless risk: A ruler calls a vote which he “fails to manipulate sufficiently” (like Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet in 1988, when he lost a plebiscite on whether he should be allowed to stay in power) or starts a war he cannot win (like Leopoldo Galtieri in Argentina with the Falklands conflict of 1982). Slippery slope: That’s Gorbachev’s case: a ruler starts reforms to prop up the regime but ends up undermining it. Trusting a traitor: This is not always a mistake made by the dictator itself, although it was in the case of Francisco Franco in Spain, who chose King Juan Carlos, the dismantler of fascism, as his successor. In Gorbachev’s case, it was the Politburo—the regime’s elite—that picked the wrong man to preserve its power. Counterproductive violence: Not suppressing the opposition when necessary can be a sign of hubris in a dictator, but overreacting is
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killings and corruption, including drug smuggling at the Bureau of Customs.” The allegations against Drilon and Roxas were con-
also a grave mistake. The example Treisman gives is Bangladeshi President Hussain Muhammad Ershad, who was forced to resign by an uprising that started after police shot an opposition activist at a rally. But the error was also made by Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in 2013, when his riot police descended on a few hundred peacefully protesting students and brutally beat them, setting off the much bigger protests that resulted in Yanukovych’s ouster. These are all very human errors of judgment. Dictators are people, too, and sometimes they’ll act on imperfect information or erroneous gut feeling. But Treisman makes the point that they may be prone to such errors precisely because they are dictators. They’ll be fooled by polls which people don’t answer sincerely, taken in by their own propaganda (like Malawi ruler Hastings Banda, who called and lost a referendum in 1993 because he’d been impressed by the high turnout at rallies in his support even though people had been forced to attend them). And sometimes they’ll rule for so long that their mental faculties will be less sharp than at the outset. I have a particular interest in watching Putin for any of the errors on Treisman’s list. So far, it’s as if he’d read the paper before Treisman wrote it. His suppression has been timely and cleverly measured, his election manipulation always sufficient, his temporary successor, Dmitri Medvedev, avoided the liberal slippery slope, and he’s only started wars against much weaker rivals. He helps his regime’s propaganda by treating it as truth, but he doesn’t buy it to the point of losing vigilance. In the 2018 election, which he apparently intends to win, he’s keeping his main opponent, Alexei Navalny, out of the race, mindful that modern technology allows a rival to loosen media restrictions -something Treisman notes can lead a hubristic dictator to an electoral loss. But even Putin, after 17 years in power, is in danger of making a miscalculation one day, perhaps finally misreading the mood of the increasingly cynical Russian public that keeps registering support for him in largely worthless polls. It’s easy to imagine the choleric Erdogan getting into an armed conflict Turkey cannot sustain or using disproportional violence as Turks’ patience with his reprisals wear thin. It’s a possibility, although a remote one, that, after Xi’s power consolidation, the Chinese Communist Party will opt for a more liberal successor and he won’t be able to hold the reins as tightly. Treisman notes that in 85 percent of the episodes he studied, democratization was preceded by mass unrest. Sooner or later, people tend to get tired of regimes in which they have little say. Then, it only takes a misstep from the one person at the center of such a regime. Dictators often overestimate the external danger to their power, the plots of foreign or exiled enemies. In the final analysis, they are the biggest threat to themselves. Bloomberg tained in an affidavit signed recently by suspected drug ring member Ricky Serenio which went mostly unreported in the Manila-based media after the document’s disclosure last week. But the LP statement was strangely silent on the same
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International terrorist
Most dictators self-destruct By Leonid Bershidsky
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2017
BACK CHANNEL ALEJANDRO DEL ROSARIO HOW do you deal with a nut like North Korean leader Kim Jong Un? First of all, Kim may not be the unhinged fringe lunatic we think him to be. He is actually an evil genius who’s gotten the attention of the United States, Japan and South Korea with his launching of ballistic missiles in the Asia Pacific region. It’s actually these three countries who have gone ballistic over the actuations of the boy-man who’s playing with deadly toys. Kim is an international terrorist who must be taken down as threat to world peace. Former United Nations Secretaries General Kofi Annan and Ban Ki-moon led thousands in a peace walk in the streets of London calling for restraint on North Korea’s missile madness. Kim has been threatening to unleash ballistic missiles against US allies, Japan and South Korea, plus the American territory
of Guam and as far the US West Coast. US President Donald Trump, on the other hand, warned there is only way to deal with North Korea and that is to decapitate its lunatic leader Kim. US defense Secretary Buster Mattis said military option is on the table if Kim does not desist issuing threats and sending missiles across Japan. If so, Kim is in “deep kimchee.” As anyone who knows American slang and the connection with the spicy Korean food, that means in deep trouble. To us, it’s less vulgar than that other American phrase connoting the icky and foul smell of barnyard droppings. I beg the reader to bear with me for talking in riddles because I know my editor won’t allow the use of foul language in her op-ed section. But here’s a clue: It’s something you don’t want to hit the fan! While we are for restraint during this time of escalating global tension, there is a disconnect here. Mssrs. Annan and Ban should be reminded that it was during their watch as UN SecGen and their policy of restraint that Kim Jong Un and the
Kim dynasty were emboldened to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles. And Pyongyang now is on the threshold of developing nuclear weapons, according to international intelligence monitoring the situation in the Korean peninsula. It seems the alternative to neutralizing “the little rocket man,” (Trump’s reference to Kim) is through the backdoor. The US and other concerned world leaders should sell the idea to the people of the North that ridding themselves of Kim might be best for everyone A reunification of North and South Korea would result in the reunion of families separated in the divided country. The best example of this constructive change is the reunification of East and West Germany. The problem, however, is that mental barrier Pyongyang imbued in the North Koreans is harder to crack than the Berlin Wall which collapsed when East Berliners scaled and demolished the Wall with sledge hammers. When reunited, East and West Germany proved to be an even more powerful economy in Europe. An East German named An-
gela Dorothea Merkel nee Kasner is still in power since taking over in 2005 from former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder German technology particularly in car-making provided jobs for the East Germans. Mercedes Benz, BMW and Audi are made even better with East German skill through transfer of technology from the West Germans. President Duterte wants to disengage from the European Union because he felt slighted by a small Euro group of parliamentarians (which EU disowned.) who criticized alleged extrajudicial killings in his virulent war on drugs. Secretary of Foreign Affairs Alan Peter Cayetano announced the Philippines will no longer accept loans and grants from the EU. Fine. But it seems to us such a waste that we cannot also avail of the transfer of technology from Europe. The Philippines is way behind Japan, South Korea, and even Thailand in car manufacturing. Well-made Japanese and Korean brand cars are now popular with Americans. Toyota,Honda, Hyundai and
Mazda have a big share of the US car market . Where do you think these Asian brand cars got to be where they are now? From Europe because the US fell behind. But now because of Asian and European competition—Ford, Chrysler and Chevrolet—are building better cars and making a return to the Asian market, including the Philippines. The morale of the story is not to limit our foreign relations. There’s much more to be learned from other nations if only we open our eyes to a wider horizon. Take the Philippines’ ménage a trois with China and Russia; these two powerful countries despite diametrically opposed ideologies with the US and the EU do not sever ties with them. They know better that nations are interdependent and it’s a multilateral world out there. We have to play the global game instead of letting the big boys play us. On a related note, the European Council which handles EU administrative matters said on Tuesday that a deal, or no deal with the UK or Brexit not happening at all in 2019 are all in the realm of the possible.
BSP’s new mantra: FINfrastructure five years. Of the infra projects, 75 have been identified as priority. Yet, only three of those 75 have the best chance of completion during the remaining five years of President Duterte. Why? Lack of money. Plenty of money. Without that money, the infra program runs the risk of being a victim of a four-letter word that starts with the letter f. F---. Thankfully, Governor Espenilla has another f in mind—the financial sector. Finance sector infrastructure, specifically, access to credit and digital financial system. At BSP, “our thrust is to ensure that the business and operating environment is sound and stable,” says Espenilla. “And that our policies and regulations encourage the build, build, build of a progressive and inclusive financial infrastructure.” “We do not ourselves build the FINfrastructure,” clarifies the BSP governor. “Our task is to promote an environment for those that do… through implementation of rules and regulations, through the launching of initiatives, and through sound, prudent and progressive banking reforms.” Espenilla says finfrastructure reforms “aim to enhance access to credit and other financial services, deepen local currency debt and foreign exchange markets, and digitalize our financial system. These are strategic and complementary reforms that reinforce sustainable economic growth and push further our financial inclusion agenda.” The governor talks of “virtual reach.” Examples:
• “We now allow third party retail outlets to function as cash agents as well as the implementation of reduced Know-Your-Customer (KYC) rules for certain low-risk accounts and the use of technology to comply with KYC requirements.” • Efforts to build financial infrastructure and viable ecosystems to facilitate a more equitable allocation of credit. In recent speeches, Espenilla sounded gung-ho about technology which he says has significantly changed the business of banking and finance. “Financial transactions can conveniently be made on the move, in the comfort of one’s home, using a smart phone. There is a shorter turnaround time for financial transactions.” “Retail financial services are further being digitized via mobile wallets, payment applications, robo-advisors, equity crowd-funding platforms for access to private and alternative investment opportunities, and online lending platforms.” “These breakthroughs are revolutionizing the financial landscape. Sound FINfrastructure is needed to support it, the governor says. The BSP is leading banking’s initiatives to operationalize the National Retail Payment System to enable customers to make payments and transfer funds between and among accounts using any digital device. “The goal is transition into a cash-lite economy,” Espenilla says. There is progress. First, with the establishment of the payment system
management body, incorporated as Philippine Payments Management, Inc., there is now an organized governance structure of retail payment systems in the country. BSP is also currently working with the industry on the formation of two priority Automated Clearing Houses (ACHs), the Batch Credit Push EFT (called PesoNet), and the Real-time EFT Credit (called InstaPay). The PesoNet is set to launch on Nov. 8, 2017. Fintech has risks. Accordingly, “the BSP follows a test-and-learn approach that allows an enabling environment for new collaborations to prosper. We encourage bank and non-bank partnerships with fintech startups to maximize the benefits of innovative digital platforms, efficiency of gains, and cost savings,” says Espenilla. Also, “new entrants may cause disruptions in the financial ecosystem since traditional players may be unable to immediately respond to increasing competition, he adds. Hence, we monitor fintech activities to better understand their business models, processes and systems.” The BSP has enhanced existing regulations to ensure that non-banks such as pawnshops and money service businesses are properly supervised as they compete in delivering bank-like services. Relatedly, “we regulate entities that use virtual currency as underlying instruments for remittance,” says Espenilla. The BSP is enhancing its information security framework to consider cybersecurity controls. While the term, “financial
Infrastructure” refers broadly to a system that allows for the effective operation of financial intermediaries, encompassing even the legal and regulatory framework, Espenilla thinks of FINfrastructure as one that addresses the very heart of why infrastructure exists: to connect people, to enable inclusion and to provide a network for more Filipinos to enjoy the benefits of economic progress and development.” The governor wants to intercalate fintech into banking to promote financial inclusion to reach out to 80 percent of Filipinos who are unbanked and small and medium industries who lack capital but only 10 percent of whose capital needs are met by banks, despite the fact that MSMEs are 99 percent of all registered enterprises, provide 61.6 percent of the jobs, and sadly, contribute only 35.7 percent to national economic output or the Gross Domestic Product. Only 6.1 percent of total bank loans go to MSMEs. Technology, however, is as simple as using the Internet. Addressing La Salle students this week, Chinese techno billionaire Jack Ma noted that “1.8-billion people in the world are using Internet. In 10 years (it) should have five to six billion people in Asia we have the Internet.” Jack arrived late Oct. 24 in Manila. “I tried to test the speed of Philippine (Internet),” he related. “It’s no good,” he exclaimed to the guffaws of his audience. Our internet, indeed, is f*cked up.
on” from the home. It was the same with relations: Infidelity brought one low in the esteem of others, and abandoning one’s family was hardly ever a pardonable offense. Friendships were treasured and while new friends could always be made, folk wisdom was expressed in the rhyme: “Make new friends, but keep the old/ One is silver, the other, gold.” Sentiment was definitely at work—but who ever said that there is something amiss with that? In some cultures, the bereaved put stones on the graves of their loved ones “so that the
sentiments may stay as firm as rock and not be blown off with the wind.” It is one thing to be “affected,” to be “emotional,” and quite another to engage perversely in a cult of the emotions. To cry in anguish when someone we love leaves us—that is part of what it is to be human. To trigger emotions so that one may take delight in their changing hues, that is perverse. But what has gone wrong is that in trying to avoid the latter, we have also smothered our capacity for the former. No, there are some things from which we must not move on. While futurity is the mark of the human spirit, rootedness is as much a distinctive trait of being human. Plants
have roots, but only human persons root themselves by a thoughtful, sentimental appropriation and recovery of the past. When a pet dog dies, do not go shopping for a new puppy. One must grieve the death of a loved pet and not, in shallowness, distract oneself by “replacing” what really cannot be replaced. When one has just buried a loved one, it is the most thoughtless thing to purchase a ticket for a world tour in the hope of getting rid of the pal of gloom. This is not relishing the grief; it is grieving as one treasures the memories of a beautiful past. One should never delude oneself into believing that a friend lost can be replaced by others.
Functions can be performed by others with the same competence, but friends cannot be replaced. One cannot and should not move on—away from genuine friendships. It is a runaway world we are in, and the speed is increasing dizzyingly. “Stop the world, I want to get off”—that was popular decades ago, but it voices an existential ennui that comes with a lack of rootedness. We can in fact apply the brakes. We can slow things down by holding on to things that we treasure, by keeping the loves that make our lives fuller and that bring fullness to others’ lives, by treasuring the memories of those who leave us—staying by their graves, or
holding on to what they leave behind, resisting the temptation to “move on” to the next exhilarating experience and preferring to savor the depth of what can remain amid the flux. Now we understand why Aristotle and the Scholastic philosophers thought of eternity in terms of the immutable. They were not dim witted after all. They had an insight into what makes of persons who matter to us, or relations that make us, always things of beauty, “everlasting, ever ancient, ever new”!
charges, based on the same affidavit, hurled against Jed Patrick Mabilog, the mayor (on indefinite leave) of Iloilo City. Mabilog has been ordered dismissed by the Office of the Ombudsman for “serious dishonesty,” after he failed to explain a
significant increase in his net worth. Even Manuel “Boy” Mejorada, who filed the original charge against Mabilog in 2015, expressed surprise that the mayor was given the maximum penalty of dismissal and a permanent
prohibition from holding public office. “I am happy because this decision is a vindication for me [but] also saddened because the penalty imposed is the harshest under the law,” Mejorada said. But I understand per-
fectly why the LP defended Drilon and Roxas but failed to even mention Mabilog, who happens to be a relation of Drilon. Mabilog, after all, has been ousted by Ombudsman Conchita Carpio-Morales, long known for her passion for defend-
ing members of the party. Mabilog had to be thrown under the bus to save Drilon and Roxas. Mabilog has also effectively abandoned his post by going abroad and not returning—and now he’s probably never coming back.
VIRTUAL REALITY TONY LOPEZ BANGKO Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Nestor Espenilla has coined a new word that blends the Duterte administration’s focus on infrastructure and the monetary authority’s thrust of financial inclusion: FINfrastructure. It will open up credit to more people, reach out to 80-million Filipinos not served by banks, and help 99 percent of all enterprises, the small and medium industries. “It’s original !” the BSP chief says of finfrastructure. “I Googled this and the search did not turn up any results.” Actually, Google “finfrastructure” and the result is “infrastructure”, what defines as “the basic physical and organizational structures and facilities (e.g., buildings, roads, and power supplies) needed for the operation of a society or enterprise.” Espenilla merely prefixed one letter—f-- to the word and voila, he has a new mantra—FINfrastructure. The “f” is supposed to stand for finance, which is what the government badly needs to push infrastructure. “Infrastructure development is all about building networks of viable, productive and meaningful connections. The goal of having sound and reliable infrastructure is to include more and more people into development,” explains Espenilla. The Duterte administration says it needs $160 billion for infrastructure over the next
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