Perspectives Is Colorado a Regenerative Economy? By Hunter Lovins and Jock Gilchrist
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egacy industries often claim they’re essential for the prosperity of the economy in which they are located. Therefore, they say, they must be sustained, regardless the cost to people or the planet. Colorado is no exception. The state’s oil and gas industry asserts that it is vital to local prosperity.1 It’s not true. The industry spent more than $40 million dollars opposing a citizen’s initiative that would have limited hydraulic fracturing (fracking) near homes and schools. The measure, Proposition 112, would have ensured that regulators took human health and safety more seriously than industry profits. Despite receiving more votes than the Republican candidate for Governor in 2018, the measure was narrowly defeated because, said the industry, oil and gas extraction is the job creation engine for the state.2 Without it, the claims went, Colorado’s economy would collapse. At Natural Capitalism Solutions (NCS),3 we asked: is this true? What is the real basis of the Colorado economy? Are industries like oil and gas and industrial agriculture as critical to our wellbeing as their proponents claim? Or could the state transition away from industries that are dangerous and polluting4 to business practices that are more regenerative? Jock Gilchrist, an NCS Research Fellow,5 synthesized information from over 120 sources and summarized key trends, employment numbers, contributions to state GDP, and other metrics. The result is a groundbreaking report, A Snapshot of the Colorado Economy.6 8 | Solutions | Fall 2019 | www.thesolutionsjournal.com
NCS’ research painted a very different picture of Colorado’s economy than that offered by the fossil fuel industry. Far from being a resource colony, Colorado enjoys an economy that is diverse and growing. The true foundation of the state’s economy are industries like education and outdoor recreation. These receive less acclaim but make far bigger contributions to the Colorado’s strong economic performance (in 2018 the fifth fastest growing state in the nation.) In contrast, the state’s legacy industries oil and gas, mining, timber and industrial agriculture represent a small and falling part of the state’s economy. They are not sustainable, much less regenerative and are at risk of further erosion. Oil and gas and industrial agriculture are dwarfed by clean technology, craft brewing, even arts and culture.7 Here are the numbers: The labor force of the fossil fuel industry shrank over the last few years, posting negative employment
growth in Metro Denver between 2015 and 2017.8, 9 Statewide, the industry shrank by 8.4% between 2012 and 2017.9 While the fossil fuel industry is important in two counties in the state (Weld and Garfield), it contributes relatively little to the Metro Denver area (which comprises 90 percent of the Colorado economy) or the state’s overall economy. The IT-software industry cluster employs 58,190 in nine-country Metro Denver.9 Arts and culture directly employs 100,631 statewide.10 While estimates vary for total fossil fuel jobs statewide, a report commissioned by the Colorado Oil and Gas Association itself put direct employment at 30,000.11 Additionally, trouble lies ahead for oil and gas in Colorado. The US fracking industry has never had a profitable quarter, and survives only on fresh infusions of investor money. One report says, “investors would be wise to view fracking companies as speculative investments.”12
David Mark on Pixabay Colorado Outdoors.