Letendre, S. and J. Van Hoesen. (2019). Publicly Available Renewable Energy System Production Forecasts: Reconnecting Consumers to Nature’s Energy Flows. Solutions 10(2): 22–29. https://www.thesolutionsjournal.com/article/ publicly-available-renewable-energy-system-production-forecasts-reconnectingconsumers-to-nature’s-energy-flows
Perspectives Publicly Available Renewable Energy System Production Forecasts: Reconnecting Consumers to Nature’s Energy Flows by Steven Letendre, PhD and John Van Hoesen, PhD
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he 2015 Paris Agreement represents the most recent step to forge a coordinated global response to reduce CO2 and related GHG emissions and limit the rise in mean global temperatures. Countries representing 97 percent of global GHG emissions submitted non-binding commitments in advance of the Paris conference. For example, the Obama administration pledged to cut domestic GHG emissions 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025. It is widely recognized that existing commitments, both those ratified by nations and those that have not—including the US—are insufficient to meet the Paris agreement’s goal to limit the rise in global mean temperatures to well below 2°C.1,2,3 Energy-related GHG emissions account for approximately two-thirds of total global GHG emissions. There are many approaches to reducing the GHG emissions from the energy sector, including efficiency and conservation, fossil fuel switching (e.g., coal to natural gas), expanded use of nuclear power, and carbon capture and sequestration. It is also widely accepted that displacing fossil fuels with zero carbon, renewable sources of energy can and should play a significant role in addressing energyrelated GHG emissions .4,5 The yearly renewable energy potential is many orders of magnitude larger than current global consumption with direct solar radiation offering the greatest potential of all renewable sources.6 In 2016 renewable forms of energy represented just over 19 percent of global final energy consumption.7 Of all renewable energy sources, solar and wind have experienced the most rapid growth over the past several 22 | Solutions | April 2019 | www.thesolutionsjournal.org
years. In 2016 solar photovoltaics (PV) achieved an historic milestone with capacity additions accounting for more additional net capacity than any other power generating resource. Net new generation capacity subtracts new fossil fuel capacity installed to replace decommissioned fossil fuel plants. In the same year solar accounted for 47 percent of newly installed renewable power capacity. Wind and hydropower accounted for 34 percent and 15.5 percent respectively of the total new renewable generation capacity added in 2016.7 The multi-year trend in the growth of installed solar and wind capacity is driven largely by declining costs, growing demand for electricity in some regions, and government incentives/programs to encourage investments in renewable generation.7 The prospects for continued price declines for wind and solar are good, thus it is likely that solar and wind deployment will continue to accelerate in the coming decade.
The Variability of Renewable Energy Production Power grids are complex systems connecting a fleet of large electric power stations to households and businesses through a sprawling network of transmission and distribution lines. These systems evolved to reliably provide power to end-users continuously to meet the minute-by-minute variations in electricity consumption. This just-in-time production and delivery system requires a complex set of institutions and markets to assure reliable low-cost power to consumers when and where they demand it. In the US, balancing authorities (including regional transmission
organizations (RTO), independent system operators (ISO), or utility companies) serve this role dispatching generation based on forecasted demand for electricity and managing markets or generation resources to balance supply with demand in real time. Generation sources with different characteristics play different roles in this delicate balance between electricity use and production. Power plants that are slow to start and stop, taking hours or days, serve the role of providing baseload power. Fast response generation resources are well suited to meet the peak demand for electricity that often occurs only a few hundred hours each year. The one unifying characteristic of the vast majority of existing generation resources today is dispatchability, meaning they can deliver power to the grid when called upon by grid operators. The rapid growth in the deployment of variable sources of generation, including solar and wind, is challenging the fundamental operational paradigm that has governed the management of electric power grids for over a century. It is generally understood that the grid must evolve to become more flexible using advanced smart grid control systems. This approach would leverage big data and information networks to both improve system reliability and power quality based on an evolving supply mix with increased production of low cost power from wind and solar generation sources.8,9,10,11 There are numerous strategies to create a more flexible grid on both the supply side and demand side. Supply solutions include geographical