Evolving Preference and Strategy of Tatmadaw Regarding Peace Process in Myanmar

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ISP-Myanmar Briefing Paper December 2018

Evolving Preference and Strategy of Tatmadaw Regarding Peace Process in Myanmar Min Zin Min Zin is a founding member and the Executive Director of ISP – Myanmar. He is also a Ph.D. candidate in the Travers Department of Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. Min Zin is a comparative political scientist, who studies civil-military relations, democratization, contentious politics, ethnic conflict and civil war with a focus on Myanmar and Southeast Asian countries.

Executive Summary What accounts for the Tatmadaw’s preference concerning the peace process in Myanmar? What does the Tatmadaw want out of the peace process? Why is the Tatmadaw not willing to make more accommodations at negotiating table in Union Peace Conference – 21st Century Panglong (UPC21CP)? These questions among many others are puzzling. No doubt that an understanding the evolving preferences of the Tatmadaw provide insights into understanding its engagement with the peace process and its current stalling. This paper argues that the ongoing evolution of the Tatmadaw’s preferences reflects its determination to keep the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) – originally conceived as a distinctively parallel institution with a mandate even to “repeal” the 2008 Constitution (See NCA Article 22 d) – within the broad parameters of the 2008 Constitution. Despite the Tatmadaw occasional tactical concessions to Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), the Tatmadaw maintains strategic advantage as through its position as the guardian of the country with self-appointed roles not only to defend - but also to define -Myanmar as a nation. The Tatmadaw views its position as guardian as reflective of its twofold institutional interests, which are to secure the Tatmadaw’s unity at all cost and advance 1

Preference here is defined as value judgment about a ranking order over and the relative desirability of alternatives outcomes (Darity 2007).

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