The IBS Times 186th Issue December 2015

The IBS times DEDICATED TO VICTIMS OF #CHENNAIRAINS

December 2015, Issue No. 186

DRAGON’S ABORTION OF ONE CHILD POLICY

DISTURBING THE DECENDANTS

BY PRATEEK PANDEY

FRAUD-U-LEND BANKING FRAUD

BY ANUPAMA KUMARSWAMI

NO CALM IN STORM MARKET WATCH

BY ISHAN GUPTA FROM PINNACLE TO DEBACLE

BIHAR DRUBBING

BY JATIN SHARMA

SURGE IN IPO’S, A BONANZA FOR PE FUNDS MONEY PERUSAL

BY SANDHYA ADHAVAN

1|DECEMBER2015

FinStreet, IBS Hyderabad

ISSUE NO. 186, DECEMBER 2015

What’s Inside

2|DECEMBER2015

INTELLIGENCE BEYOND SUCCESS

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR TEAM IBS TIMES KAUSHIK CHANDELL (EDITOR-IN-CHIEF) AVIK CHAKRABARTY (MANAGING EDITOR) ALISHA SINGH APOORVA ANUSHA

KOLISETTY AISHWARYA MANJARI SHARMA NAVJOTH SAHU PRIYANKA MALIK RAHUL MISHRA RIPU TANDON SACHI KHESKANI SAMEENA USMAN SRISHTI KARMAKAR ABHINAV BANERJEE

Dear Readers, Greetings from Team FinStreet.

Team FinStreet dedicates this issue to Chennai Flood Victims and offers to support the victims in every possible way.

We present to you the 186th edition of The IBS Times.

This issue shares the insight on the ongoing Make in India campaign. We have also shed some light on aftereffects of Bihar Elections named as ‘Bihar Drubbing’. Also, in this issue we have discussed about recent banking fraud ‘Fraud-U-Lend’ along with a report on India Africa Third Summit.

Our most famous Market Watch goes with the name of No Calm in the Storm again trying to bring the best speculative report for you to invest. We also bring to you an article on FDI Inflow in brief stating about the recent peaks achieved in FDI. This issue further brings for its new readers a comprehensive report on Dragon’s Abortion of 1 Child Policy which will focus on recent policy change in China.

Hope you have an enriching experience reading The IBS Times. Your feedbacks and opinions will help us make it better.

Kaushik Chandell Team FinStreet

ANUPAMA KUMARSWAMI CHESTHA KUMAR EYAMINI N HEMLATA HAJONG ISHAN GUPTA JATIN SHARMA JHARNA SONI PRATEEK PANDEY RANU SARUPRIA ROHIT TILLU SANDHYA ADHAVAN SUPRIYA GAUR SWARUPA ROY

3|DECEMBER2015

-MARK TWAIN

CONCERNS AND EXPECTATIONS

MAKE IN INDIA- ARE WE READY?

-Supriya Gaur

A Portuguese proverb states “There’s a long way from

government expenditure, investments and net

saying to doing”. This holds true for the vision and

income factor which is given by exports minus

mission of our Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi.

imports. Even the logo of the campaign denotes

During his maiden Independence Day speech on 15th

dynamism, progress, strength and courage which

August, 2015, he openly welcomed foreign companies

itself explain the intention of the campaign. The

to manufacture in India saying, “Sell anywhere you

purpose of Make in India is to fuel the manufacturing

want but come, make in India”. That moment aimed at

sector thus putting down the unemployment rates by

creating the platform to attract foreign investors and

creating job opportunities. It also focuses on

companies to sail to India for business. We undoubtedly removing certain rules and regulations pertaining to have the most flamboyant person ruling our nation and tax, import and export to provide the ease for doing he has proved it many times by bringing into action

business which in turn will help to give global

various schemes such as Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan

recognition to India. The campaign focuses on 25

Yojna, Digital India, Soil card health scheme, PAHAL,

sectors including automobile, defense, electronics,

Atal Pension Yojna and Smart City Program. Among

railways and aviation which have enormous growth

this list of initiatives the one which caught everyone’s

options.

eye was the Make in India campaign which aims at

“We have a pool of talent, what they need is the place

creating opportunities for youth and thereby leading to

to grow”, this is the belief of the man behind this

the development of economy. But the dilemma lies in

mission who aims at creating 100 million jobs in the

the fact that whether such an initiative will be fruitful

manufacturing sector by 2022 so that every budding

from the point of long term profitability and economic

talent of the nation is trained and assigned the work

development.

of his expertise in order to ensure that each and every

In order to encourage foreign and domestic companies

minute of work contributes to the GDP growth. The

to manufacture in India, Mr. Narendra Modi launched

current contribution of manufacturing sector to the

the Make in India campaign on 25th September, 2014

GDP is 16 per cent which is expected to rise to 22

with the objective to increase the contribution of

per cent by 2022. Along with this, major cost cutting

manufacturing sector to the gross domestic product

measures are to be adopted in the defense sector by

(GDP) of India, boost foreign direct investment(FDI)

emphasizing on manufacturing the equipments in

and foster innovation. Gross Domestic Product is the

India. Similarly other areas of development such as

final value of all goods and services produced within a

space and construction have been spotted which will

nation in a specific time, usually during a year and it

help in achieving the ultimate aim of growth.

includes

consumption,

What looks easy when written down in terms of facts

government expenditure, investments and net income 4|DECEMBER2015

and figures is actually a humungous task not because

factor which is given by exports minus imports. Even

it is at such a large scale but simply because there are

all

public

and

private

which in no way can be a favorable aspect. Moreover business consent is lacking between other countries.

Deregulation and tax concession alone will not solve the problem. What needs to be done next is development on the technological front. India still lacks way beyond other economies such as China and Japan when it comes to implementation of new techniques of growth. A particular method adopted in United States today will reach India 3-5 years down the line. So the flaw is basically in research and had been wiped out due to the drop in equities in the past two weeks across the world.

development which needs to be fastened.

Infrastructure

poses

another

problem.

Land

While the rupee slid to a two -year low on Monday,

acquisition issues hinder the development of world

stock market investors in India lost, Rs. 7 lakh crore in

class infrastructure and are a source of threat for

the big What looks easy when written down in terms of

expansion and setting up of new business. The

facts and figures is actually a humungous task not

interested parties will have to pay high rents or buy

because it is at such a large scale but simply because

expensive properties thereby increasing the overall

there are some hidden challenges which are crawling

cost of production and manufacturing. This scenario

side by side with the campaign objectives. One of the

will never favor the Make in India initiative.

most striking problems is the deregulation which will definitely hinder the progress of the project. Indian business environment is bounded by such a large number of regulations that setting up even a small manufacturing unit requires approval and clearance of many authorities. To make this environment business friendly, there needs to be the elimination of these hindrances so that attracting the foreign investors and building more startups becomes easier.

Although there are some in hand problems regarding the implementation of the initiatives but a few steps have already been taken which gives the campaign a positive response. Beginning with the electronics sector, Foxconn, the manufacturer of Apple’s iPhones has agreed to sign a contract by the end of 2015 for the establishment of 10-12 facility and data centres in India. Mercedes Benz, a renowned name in the automobile industry has decided to

Low tax rate has always been the point of attraction for

manufacture its luxury car components and luxury

general public as well as the entrepreneurs. To set up a

buses in India which will be exported to Africa and

new business unit tax concessions are required which

South East Asian markets. Manufacturing in the

needs the revision of the entire tax system and it is not

defense sector is the need of the hour as it has 60

an easy task. Currently there exists dual tax liability

yundai Heavy Industries and Samsung will build

which 5in| no aspect. Moreover D Eway C E Mcan B Ebe R 2a0favourable 15

warships and LNG tankers in collaboration with

business consent is lacking between other countries.

Hindustan Shipyard Vizag and Kochi Shipyard

Negative aspects cannot overshadow the efforts of people who pursue Make in India not only as an initiative but a dream that is to be made true. When we know what our weakness is, we can make an attempt to transform it into our strength. Whether we will fall in the lap of success or will be slapped by failure, that is completely the different aspect but now what we require is to unite and contribute our part towards the success of this initiative to give our nation a global recognition.

percent imports. Hyundai Heavy Industries and Samsung will build warships and LNG tankers in collaboration with Hindustan Shipyard Vizag and Kochi Shipyard respectively. Various other big names such as Spice Group, Lenovo, Motorola and Boeing have already put a foot forward in support of the Make in India campaign. Apart from that the government of India itself has planned to form a Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) which will create new manufacturing hubs and attract foreign investment.

Also 13th-18th February, 2016 has been announced as the Make in India week to be organized in Mumbai.

Negative aspects cannot overshadow the efforts of 6|DECEMBER2015

people who pursue Make in India not only as an initiative but a dream that is to be made true. When we

BANKING FRAUDS

FRAUD-U-LEND

-Anupama Kumarswami

++

It was the fine summery morning that Bank of Baroda

amount paid by way of custom and excise duties on

was experiencing. Daily customers used to go visit its

the raw materials used and service tax used for the

Ashok Vihar branch in Delhi. The employees and the

manufacture of exported goods. The problem here

customers hardly knew what was happening within the

was that the accused traders evaded the custom

company fortifications. During its usual business, Bank

duties, taxes and over-claim duty drawbacks to

of Baroda noticed some unusual transactions from its

generate slush funds. The accused had plotted of

Ashok Vihar branch. This branch was relatively new,

forming fake companies and business entities world-

had obtained permission to accept Forex transactions in

wide, particularly in Hong Kong by over valuing the

2013. Within a time span of 1year, the Forex business

export value and then successively claiming the duty

of this branch had shot up to Rs.21,529 crore. There

drawbacks.

were obvious undertones of fraud somewhere within the bank’s branch.

What exactly happened?

The culprits had opened up some 59 accounts in Ashok Vihar branch of Bank of Baroda under the names of various different companies and started multiple remittance transactions to these accounts. There were illegal remittances of Rs.6,172 crore to Hong Kong between 1st August 2014 and 12th August 2015. In the first transaction, dummy companies were opened in Hong Kong. The exporter, who had foreign exchange black money collected and stored abroad, used these entities as clients who sent the black money to India to make the transaction look genuine and keep it secured.

Government of India on receiving the foreign exchange disbursed the duty drawback money to the exporter

Not only that, Bank of Baroda had even found out that there were 5,853 outward foreign remittances of Rs.3,500 crore, mainly for the purpose of ‘advance remittances for import’. These funds were sent through 38 current accounts to various overseas parties numbering to 400, mainly based in Hong Kong and one in UAE. Advance remittances for imports are those part payments that an importer makes to confirm his imports. As per the banking systems, rules and regulations, a remittance of up to $1,00,000 does not raise an alarm and is automatically cleared without supporting documents of imports. The money launderers exploited this loophole by smartly selecting the commodities which are prone to cancellations on account of quality or sharp price fluctuations.

since the entire transaction was closed as per the bank.

This entire fraud came in the spotlight only because

These duty drawback schemes are used by the

Bank of Baroda pointed out the suspicious treading

Government of India to promote exports in which the

to the investigating agencies. But, there were

refunds is given by the government to recoup the

mistakes at Bank of Baroda’s end too. Banks are

amount paid by way of custom and excise duties on the

expected to raise exceptional transaction reports and

raw materials and tax used for the 7 | D E C Eused MBER 2 0 1service 5

suspicious transaction reports with the RBI in case of

manufacture of exported goods. The problem here was

any discrepancy if found out. The delay in pointing

CBI and other central investigating agencies have set upon to understand the modus operandi of how the scams are committed as well as where they make mistakes and the how those loopholes can be corrected. RBI is set to red-flag all those accounts where the value of the transaction-single or multiple, exceeds the $1 lakh threshold per day. Central Vigilance

commission,

Central

Bureau

of

Investigation and Enforcement Directorate have come together to formulate the plan to tackle these frauds and then recover those money lost and book the perpetrators. These three agencies along with the expected to raise exceptional transaction reports and

CBI analyzed 10 frauds to get to the root cause of

suspicious transaction reports with the RBI in case of

these top bank frauds as well as to recover funds and

any discrepancy if found out. The delay in pointing out

book the culprits. These changes were brought about

these discrepancies made the matter even worse and

to consideration to the Bank of Baroda case and

thus giving the scam a momentum. This was not the

Dena Bank case. They have requested the RBI to

only largest scam that occurred. In 2010, CBI excavated

ensure tracking of even smaller transactions and also

a corporate loan racket in Mumbai, where officials of

where the total value of such multiple transactions

various state-run banks and middlemen were arrested

crosses $1 lakh in a day from an account. Not just the

for sanctioning loans to particular corporates and

agencies but also the Reserve Bank of India and

violated the prudential norms. In 2010 again, Citibank

Indian Banks Association are working on the details

detected a scam in its Gurgaon branch committed by

of arrangement to monitoring of such transactions.

one of its employees. Early this year, investigating agencies had initiated preliminary enquiries against officials of several financial institutions, including Dena Bank and Oriental Bank of Commerce with a connection of fixed deposit fraud involving Rs.700 crore. Still scams are being committed and to tackle that, Public Accounts Committee (PAC) is likely to order the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) to probe the fraudulent practices reported in various public sector banks. These scams allegedly run into crores of rupees.

8|DECEMBER2015

With respect to Bank of Baroda case, the magnitude of fraud may not be that big as it was an advance remittance for imports. The bank, CBI and ED are working together on this to identify how much import actually happened, how much import is still pending and how much money has been squandered away. CBI has been enhancing its capabilities to curb banking fraud in the country as the situation on bad debts and non-performing assets is worsening. To augment the skills and capabilities of investigators and prosecutors, the first batch of 30 CBI officers have begun

and prosecutors, the first batch of 30 CBI officers have

key details of previous frauds. The creation of such

begun training in handling advanced financial crimes at

database will provide banks with information before

IIM Bangalore. These are among 185 officers who are

the beginning of their banking relationships,

to be trained at IIMs and Law schools. The CBI is also

extension of credit facilities or at any time during the

under process of setting up a centralized technology

operation of an account. This will be a big step

department to support investigations in areas of cyber

towards to the cleansing of major loopholes by

forensics,

fraud

providing the banks with necessary information and

examinations. With increasing amount of Bad debts and

thus by helping the investigating agencies to trace the

Non-performing assets, there have been also under

culprits. With increasing amount of availability of

reporting of frauds for variety of reasons linked to

information, it is also important that it be used in a

larger issues of corporate governance in banks.

more productive manner. With more power comes

mobile

forensics

and

forensic

As a result, RBI is in the process of designing a Central Fraud Registry, where banks would be able to access key details of previous frauds. The creation 9|DECEMBER2015

more responsibility.

COMPARISION

GOVERNMENT BONDS FAVORED OVER CORPORATE BONDS

-Eyamini N

It is seen that the investors are showing more preference



Maturity ranges from of 2-30 years.

towards government bonds than that of the PSU in the



Securities qualify as SLR (Statutory Liquidity

recent past in order to meet the challenges in the

Ratio) investments (unless otherwise stated)

disinvestment target. The disinvestment process is challenging right now mainly because of the global commodity slowdown and the companies we are considering

for

disinvestment

are

mainly

in

commodities industry, which are affected by global

Foreign investors prefer Indian Government bonds with shorter maturities, indicating that they are bullish for the next three to four years when falling rates would lead to capital gains. They are unlikely to invest in a country with a volatile exchange rate

commodity prices.

impacting their investment gains. Indian government A government bond is a bond issued by a national government, generally with a promise to pay periodic interest payments and to repay the face value on the maturity

date.

Government

bonds

are

usually

denominated in the country's own currency.

bonds are more likely to attract more investors due to stable currency, growth coming back, stable government, investor-friendly policies, sovereign, very liquid and you can any day buy any amount and The secondary market [in corporate bonds] is not

Major advantages as to why government bonds are

very liquid compared to government bonds. So, in

preferred are:

the corporate bond market, from June-July onwards



No default risk as the securities carry sovereign guarantee.



Ample liquidity as the investor can sell the security in the secondary market



Interest payment on a half yearly basis on face value

we see a about USD 1.5-2 billion inflows every month from FIIs. That has contracted the spreads between government securities and corporate bonds.

It used to be about 70-80 basis points historically, they have now come down to 30-40 basis points.

These FIIs are coming either from the European countries, US or the South Asian countries like



No tax deducted at source



Can be held in Demat form.



Rate of interest and tenor of the security is fixed

corporate bonds are not as high as it is in India, these

at the time of issuance and is not subject to

are available at a yield of 8.25-8.40 levels whereas

change (unless intrinsic to the security like

globally these are traded at yield of 1.5-2 percent

FRBs - Floating Rate Bonds).

levels.



Redeemed at face value on maturity

government yields in Asian emerging markets after



Maturity ranges from of 2-30 years.

Indonesia: around 8.16 per cent for a 10-year bond,

Singapore, Hong Kong and all. The yields in other countries, especially on government-sponsored

Indian states pay the second-highest

 10 Securities qualify (Statutory Liquidity |DECEM B E R 2as 0 1SLR 5

much higher than Indian federal debt and nearly two

Ratio) investments (unless otherwise stated)

to three times the yield on Philippines and Thai

Indonesia: around 8.16 per cent for a 10-year bond,

This year in the budget plan of 2015-16 Arun Jaitley

much higher than Indian federal debt and nearly two to

(Finance Minister) set an disinvestment target of

three times the yield on Philippines and Thai paper.

69,500,even though they missed the previous year target by half. Government has reached upto 12,700

Facts

crore in the first half of the fiscal year which is the 



Foreign Portfolio Investors have lapped up government

highest in the past seven years record despite market

debt securities, including state bonds, worth nearly Rs

volatility. Despite auctions of G-secs, government

15,000 crore within days of limits being hiked for these

bonds have been subscribed multiple times, given the

instruments.

huge interest among foreign investors comparatively

RBI and SEBI earlier this month allowed greater

demand for corporate bonds have been less. The

foreign fund flows into government securities, which

government has a pipeline over a dozen PSUs for

are generally favored by FPIs over the corporate bonds

stake sale which includes RINL, NMDC, SAIL, Coal

in India. Following this, additional limits have been

India, BHEL, OIL and ONGC, MMTC, Nalco and

available.

Hindustan copper.

1. In further opening up, the limits would be enhanced by another Rs 16,600 crore from January 1 onwards.

2. The cap has been now raised to Rs 1, 70,000 crore from Rs 1, 53,569 crore previously. As against the previous limit, the total investments by FPIs in government bonds stood at Rs 1, 66,956 crore as on October 16. 

3. In comparison, the total investments by FPIs in corporate bonds stood at Rs 3, 54,505 crore as against a cap of Rs 4, 14,323 crore.



4. The enhanced limits include a first-ever separate category for state development debt securities where FPIs can invest up to Rs 3,500 crore with effect from October 12. This would be doubled to Rs 7,000 crore from January 1.



India is likely to sell extra government bonds made available for foreign institutional investors last week through an auction rather than on demand as of now.

The Reserve Bank of India said a week ago that it would gradually increase the limits it sets for foreign investors buying government debt by up to 1.2 trillion rupees ($18.37 billion) by March 2018. In order to manage the exhaustion of limit, RBI have shifted a part of the limit, which was not utilized on the sovereign wealth fund and pension fund and the central bank quota [which was a separate USD 10 billion], it has reduced USD 5 billion from there and shifted to the normal quota and it was very quickly exhausted.

5. The auction conducted by the BSE had attracted bids

Under Indian rules, government debt is usually sold

of staggering Rs 17,266 crore from FPIs, three times

via auction - rather than "on tap" for most foreign

higher than securities put on offer valued Rs 5,600

investors once they use more than 90 percent of the

crore.

total debt limits. Foreign institutional investors have already used up almost their entire $25 billion 11 | D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 5

allocation of government debt. After the 90 percent limit it will be sold on auction basis. India has

more attractive comparatively. Government is taking all necessary measures to enhance the investment on corporate bonds as well, as the limit to Government bonds have almost filled up. Indian government has also decided to issue long term bonds of 40 years tenure in the FY16 in order to meet the increasing demand. The utilization of corporate bonds must be increased or the investors must wait till the next auctions or till the limit enhancement made by SEBI.

Fig: Government Bond

Fig: Corporate Bond already used up almost their entire $25 billion allocation of government debt. After the 90 percent limit it will be sold on auction basis. India has increased its debt limits for the category of investors composed of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) by 55 billion rupees ($842.11 million). FIIs, which include several kinds of investors like mutual funds, pension, insurance funds, hedge funds, central banks and banks typically account for the overseas investments into India.

Thus it is seen that the Spreads on Indian bonds are more attractive comparatively. Government is taking all necessary the investment on 12 | measures D E C E M B to E R 2enhance 015 corporate bonds as well, as the limit to Government

MONEY PERUSAL

SURGE IN IPOS A BONANZA FOR P.E. FUNDS

-Sandhya Adhavan

“Overall, it looks like a healthy time to exit investments

who invested heavily in distressed companies before

through public share sale, and next year will be even

the crisis, had to hold their investments for a period

better than this year as more companies are being

much longer than the global norms of 4 years, as the

groomed for their listings,” said Vishal Tulsyan,

market sentiments were poor and the economic

managing director and chief executive, Motilal Oswal

growth was slow. Because of these factors, the

Private Equity Advisors Pvt. Ltd.

market share price went down putting the investors under pressure. A McKinsey & Co. report observed

Initial Public Offering (IPO) is a process by which a private company, small or big, in order to raise huge capital, go to general public by listing itself in the stock exchange. There are basically two reasons why the companies go public. Through an IPO, a company can raise funds from millions of regular people which enables them to sell the stocks in the stock market immediately, rather than approaching individual investors to invest. Another reason is, people who have invested in the company are actually holding a ‘restricted stock’ (stock that cannot be sold for cash easily as it is not verified by the government). By going for IPOs, these stocks become a liquidity event – easily convertible into cash.

that the average gross returns to private equity investors before 2007 was 21 percent and after 2008 it plunged to just 7 percent. Not only the returns, but also the holding period of such investments increased from 3.3 years to 5.7 years, exceeding the global norm. For the past three years, there has been a significant increase in the companies opting for IPOs, creating a favorable situation, as the private equity funds who are holding the restricted stock, wants to liquidate their investment by selling these shares so as to reduce their stake in the respective company.

An analysis of nine private equity funds shows that average returns generated through selling their

Why the private equity funds were idle for a long time?

investments partially through IPOs are above 24 percent. This analysis is based on the price at which

In the present scenario, many companies are going for

the private equity investors invested and sold their

IPO. This is a favorable situation for the private equity

shares.

investors. Before shedding light on why it is favorable

Private equity exits after IPO launch

to them, let us understand who are Private Equity (PE) funds. Private equity funds are those who pool in money

The nine private equity funds that made partial exits

from retail and institutional investors to invest into

through IPOs this year include New Silk Route,

companies- mostly distressed ones, to get returns. But

Providence Equity Partners, Jacob Ballas India,

due to the 2008 Global crisis, many private equity funds

Motilal Oswal Private Equity, Zephyr Peacock India,

who invested heavily in distressed companies before

Xander Group Inc., Norwest Venture Partners and

13 | D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 5

the crisis, had to hold their investments for a period

Rabo Equity Advisors-managed India Agri Busines 3s Fund.

Xander Group Inc., Norwest Venture Partners and Rabo Equity Advisors-managed India Agri Busines 3s Fund.

average of Rs.63.72 a dollar this year.

Prospective outlook for the private equity funds

The investor Zephyr Peacock India, which is the private equity arm of New York-based Zephyr Management

As the market sentiments has improved, many

Lp. registered the highest return of 55 percent, partially

companies have decided to go for IPOs to provide

exiting its investment in Pennar Engineered Building

the investors an exit option and also to raise capital

Systems Ltd. It had invested in the company at Rs.58.20

from public. Around seventeen companies have

per share in 2013. During its public issue, Pennar sold

raised more than Rs.10,000 crore through IPOs. And

shares at Rs.178 apiece. New Silk Route, a private

more than 30 companies have filed draft IPO papers

equity investor, who has partly exited two investments

with the capital markets regulator, Securities and

through recent IPOs, made a return of 40% on its

Exchange Board of India (SEBI), which aggregates

investment in Hubli-based VRL Logistics Ltd.

to Rs.20,000 crore by next year. But not all investors

However, a compounded annual return of just 8.79%

who are going for IPOs are getting the expected

was given by its seven-year-old investment in Ortel

return. Jacob Ballas made 8.7% (from PNC

Communications Ltd.

Infratech), and Norwest Ventures Partners and Xander Group gained only 10.84% returns (from

Motilal Oswal Private Equity, which had invested in Power Mech Projects Ltd in portions, sold a part of its

Sadbhav Infrastructure Project) from IPOs in which they partly exited their investments.

investment in the company at Rs.640 a share. Its initial investment in the company was made at a price

Sanjeev Krishan, leader (transaction services and

of Rs.159.82 in the year 2009.

private equity), PwC India said that secondary sale has been a preferred option for PE funds and most

Another private equity fund which has made good returns is Rabo Equity Advisors’s India Agri Business

well-run businesses have seen a secondary sale. “We have noticed that IPO is only a fallback option.”

Fund. They partly exited its investment in Prabhat Dairy Ltd at a price of Rs.115 per share compared to its

Even though there are certain investors who are

initial entry price of Rs.49.1 per share. These private

unable to get fair returns through IPOs, the very fact

equity funds are focusing on issuing the shares at higher

that they are exiting their stakes in the company after

price so as to compensate for their depreciation in

holding the investments for a long period comes as a

Indian currency as the Investments made in the 2008-

relief to them. The sudden surge in IPOs were after

09

all a bonanza for the private equity funds.

period

(the

rupee

traded

at

an

average

of Rs.43.39/dollar) are at a drawback since the currency has now weakened. The Indian currency traded at an average of Rs.63.72 a dollar this year.

14 | D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 5

MARKET WATCH

NO CALM IN STORM

-Ishan Gupta

The markets have been in a downward trend since the

26800

last week of October due to the the uncertainty around

26400

8100 8000

the Bihar election. The markets were jittery from the start and the exit polls did not give any cheer to the market. With our political class fate sealed on Sunday,

Sensex

26000

7900 7800

Nifty

25600

7700

the future course of action of the market was visible.

With NDA losing in Bihar it was clear that the road

25200 2-Nov-15

5-Nov-15

8-Nov-15

7600 11-Nov-15

ahead will be tough. The government will not have enough numbers to muster the support in the upper house and as a result will not be able to pass crucial

Simply put the euphoria around the Indian economy might start subduing.

reforms. The government now driven into a corner

This was witnessed on 9th November when the

decided to announce some reforms for FDI on the

market fell flat within minutes of the opening bell.

following Tuesday. Due to this and the ritual of muhurat

Muhurat trading

trading, the BSE SENSEX snapped its five day losing The concept of muhurat trading is unique to the

streak.

Indian markets. It is auspicious stock market trading Equity markets

for an hour on Diwali. It is a symbolic and old ritual

The market continued its sluggishness in the beginning

that has been retained and observed for, by the

of the month. The pace of economic reforms has been

trading community, for ages. As Diwali also marks

slowing down and questions are being raised over the

the beginning of the New Year, it is believed that

government’s ability. The Bihar election was definitely

muhurat trading on this day brings in wealth and

not what the market was hoping for. The election raises

prosperity throughout the year. The time of the

quite a few questions:

muhurat trading is specified by the stock exchange



each year. Since it marks the beginning of the New

The hopes raised by the Modi government of bringing the economy back on track have taken a hit.



The government which is already in minority in the upper house is going to face a tougher time in the parliament.



The government has to develop a working relation

Year, some also refer to it by the year as per the Hindu calendar. This muhurat trading marked the beginning of Samvat 2072. Muhurat trading turned out to be auspicious for the community as the markets ended their losing streak and the SENSEX gained 124 points.

with the opposition to pass essential reforms.

15 | D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 5

Gold Market

Gold Market It is considered auspicious to buy gold, silver or utensils

106.0 104.0 102.0

during the time of Dhanteras. However, jewelers and

100.0

gold traders have reported a lower than expected sale of

98.0

gold this season. They attribute this to a slowdown in

96.0 2-Nov-15

the economy and a poor monsoon season which directly

S&P 500

affects the rural market’s demand for the precious metal. Also, this time the competition comes from an unexpected source, the gold monetization scheme. To

5-Nov-15 FTSE

8-Nov-15 Hang Seng

11-Nov-15 Nikkei

steady gains during the period.

Sectors & stocks

stop the excessive import of the yellow metal and to channelize these investments into productive savings

Finally, we would like to highlight the sectors and

the government launched this scheme. These schemes

the stocks to look out for:

are being currently sold by the banks and it will be

TOP SECTOR PICKS

interesting to see how much value these schemes have

Financial Services

Aurobindo Pharma

been able to generate and if they could be a force to be

Automobiles

Britannia

reckoned with for your everyday jeweler or trader.

Industrials

Berger Paints

Currency market

I.T.

Ceat

Pharmaceuticals

SKS Microfinance

The rupee witnessed a strong depreciation over the

TOP STOCK PICKS

period. The downfall of the rupee has been attributed to a variety of reasons. The most prominent among them

The markets have been volatile and unpredictable

is the possibility of a fed hike in December. This

over the period and with a number of factors

assumption is not only weakening the rupee but the

remaining inconsistent and unpredictable anything is

entire lot of emerging market currencies. The other

possible. The start to the New Year has been positive

factor includes the defeat of the NDA government in

and the sentiments are bullish. It will be interesting

Bihar.

to see how the markets turn out in the next year and

Global markets The global markets have been volatile and have been giving mixed signals. In the US, the S&P has remained flat for the period. The FTSE has also been volatile and has seen a downward trend over the period. The Hang Seng index also witnessed a volatile session. The Nikkei was the only exception in the list, locking in steady 16 gains | D during E C E Mthe B E period.

R2015 Sectors & stocks

how the global and political factors run their course.

BANKING SECTOR ANALYSIS

MONITORING THE BANKERS

-Rohit Tillu

The Banking sector of any country is paramount for its

the company. Now, for dilution of government stake

survival in this era of tough competition and mammoth

in any public sector bank, the Government has to

financial scams. The Banking sector is virtually the

take a parliamentary approval. The IDBI bank is set

backbone of any economy. Without the help of banks,

up under a special act of parliament which entails

the flow of money and credit cannot be controlled thus

that it is not required to take any parliamentary

leading to chaos and mayhem.

approval for stake dilution in IDBI. The Ministry of

Coming to India, the World’s largest democracy, the banks indeed have a very big role to play. Be it the 1991 meltdown or the Subprime crisis of 2008, the Reserve Bank of India has actively taken charge in wiping off all the repercussions that hit the Indian economy. The vast geographical area makes it very difficult to include each and every individual to under the umbrella of banking, but the Government of India and some private players have assigned themselves to this mission of banking inclusion across the country and they have achieved great results. The Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana was one such initiative by the Modi government to achieve maximum Banking and Financial inclusion.

The government of India also has a controlling stake in various banks with which they control the flow of money in the economy. Let’s take up few banks where the Government of India has its controlling interests.

Finance feels that it is time that the Government dilutes its stake in IDBI. They wish to function on the same model in which they had divested their stake in the UTI (Unit Trust of India) bank, thus privatizing its operations. The Government still owns 29% stake in the Axis bank, but all the operations and the decision making has been taken up

by private

players.

After

the

proposed

disinvestment, the Government ownership would come down to 51% from the current stake of 76.5%.

But S Nagrajan, the President of All India Banker’s Association feels that the Center should not take such action. The IDBI comprises of three bodies namely: IDBI (A development financial institution), IDBI Bank (A commercial bank) and Western Bank (amalgamated with IDBI in 2006). There is no problem in handling over the operations of IDBI bank to private players but giving the control of IDBI, which is a development financial institution,

The Industrial Development Bank of India or the IDBI

defeats the purpose with which it was set up. It was

bank as it is popularly known is in the news for quite

set up to extend a helping hand to Medium and Small

some time now. Headquartered in Mumbai, the

enterprises so that they don’t get knocked out of the

Government owns 76.5% of the total capital of the

market due to the intense competition with the bigger

bank. For having controlling interest, any organization

players of the market.

should have brought up minimum 51% of the capital of

There’s also a flipside to this saga. IDBI bank has

the company. Now, for dilution of government stake in

been performing very poorly year over year. One of

17 | D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 5

any public sector bank, the Government has to take a parliamentary approval. The IDBI bank is set up under

the biggest reasons is its burgeoning bad loans. The

been performing very poorly year over year. One of the

during August 2014 and 2015. The Central Bureau

biggest reasons is its burgeoning bad loans. The NPA

of Investigation has reported that these remittances

(Non-performing Assets) are those loans which have

were made using 38 current accounts and

not been repaid till date, have increased from ₹11,599

establishing Fake corporations to execute the

crore to ₹14,758 crore. These figures have been taken

transactions. It has also been found out that ₹3,500

for the period covered under June 2014 to June 2015.

crore worth of remittances have been made during

The bank will be facing huge losses if these NPA

the period claiming as advance payments for the

figures continue to increase. Under the Banking law, a

upcoming imports. It has been opined that these

bank is supposed to make a provision for all the

foreign remittances were systematically used to fool

unsecured loans that it has lent. IDBI’s provisions have

the

risen from ₹990 crore to₹1,290 crore citing an increase

unaccounted money into legitimate.

in the unsecured loans granted which lands them into

The Indian arm of the alleged had marked up the

greater danger. Also, the net profit margin, which is an

price of the goods they exported so that they can

indicator of the bank’s operational efficiency, has also

avail all the duty drawbacks offered by the

gone down from 4.5% to 3% indicating the bank’s poor

government. The players set up in Hong Kong used

performance.

these entities as clients to send money back to India.

government

officials

and

convert

the

The government, on receiving the foreign exchange, disbursed the duty drawback as the transaction seemed to be closed. The agenda of the modus Bank of Baroda, or the BoB, as it is popularly known is

operandi was to generate slush funds which can be

another public sector bank which has been doing well

further used. Some top executives of BoB have been

from the past few years. The Government of India holds

taken into custody by the CBI to further investigate

a 59.25% share in the Bank of Baroda. The bank has

this matter. It seems that this issue has some political

seen a slump in its performance when compared to the

implications too as the commencement of these

previous financial year. The NPA (Non-performing

remittances date back to the time when the new

Assets) have shot up from ₹6,034 crore in March 2014

government had just come to power. This scam has

to ₹8,609 crore in March 2015. Also the net profits have

tarnished the bank’s image big time and its impacts

fallen from ₹4,541 crore to ₹3,398 crore indicating

seem to be hurting for the bank as the share prices

falling productivity of the bank. The return on their

have been constantly fluctuating on a daily basis and

assets has gone down from 0.75% to 0.49% indicating

it has also resulted in loss of confidence in the minds

the same. The stock prices have also seen a constant

of the account holders.

tumble due to the recent forex scam of 2015. The scam siphoning off roughly ₹6,172 crore to Hong Kong during 18 | D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 5

With all this going on the background, we can also see a ray of hope. Recently, The Reserve Bank of

FROM PINNACLE TO DEBACLE

BIHAR DRUBBING

-Jatin Sharma

The Bihar drubbing, yet another debacle of the ruling

patience. The big bang reforms needed to make India

NDA (national democratic alliance) after the Delhi

the centre of economic activities, promised by Indian

elections, is raising serious questions about public

polity, do not seem coming anytime soon.

confidence in the central government. The NDA, which

Implementing GST, a single tax for the entire

came into power in 2014 on promise of big bang

country, received a severe blow. Resignation by

economic reforms, has not been able to deliver after 18

K.M. Mani (Ex-finance minister of Kerala) on

months in office. Most of the breakthrough reforms like

corruption allegations, head of the empowered

GST (goods and service tax) and land acquisition bill

committee of state finance ministers, which is

have remained stuck. Even after a landslide victory in

overseeing the implementation of GST, will delay

2014, the ruling coalition does not have a majority in

the most highly awaited reform further. Not just

Rajya Sabha (upper house of the Indian parliament).

stock

The Bihar election gave an opportunity to NDA to

weakening of sentiments and dropped 20% against

improve their representation in Rajya Sabha, which The

dollar to sub Rs. 66 level. Foreign institutional

BJP (Bhartiya Janta Party) lost.

investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers leading to

Economic Impacts of Bihar elections The impact of election result, announced on November th

8

markets,

even

currency

experienced

massive outflows from Indian economy. However, the turbulence is based on investor’s sentiment and not fundamentals. To arrest the slide of investors,

was observed the very next day when markets

finance minister Arun Jaitley has come up with

opened. A Lot of people were expecting a BJP victory,

assurance that the pace of reforms is not going to be

a belief cemented by exit polls, and a push to economic

affected by the results, GST is only a matter of time.

reforms. This belief received a severe dent. Hastening

Even P.M. Narendra Modi has issued statements in

reforms is necessary to create a positive investment

which the BJP party accepts the mandate of the

climate congruent with the recent monetary loosening

people of Bihar and the centre will work in

by RBI (repo rate cut by 50 basis points). Bihar defeat

coordination with the state government to ensure

led to a rapid fall in both BSE (Bombay stock exchange

economic growth of Bihar.

and) and NSE (National stock exchange). NIFTY and SENSEX were both down two new lows. SENSEX breached 26000 on Nov 9th, a low seen after a long time.

NIFTY went below the 8000 mark. Sentiments have weakened immensely and the international diaspora of investors are losing confidence in India and running out patience. The big bang reforms needed to make India 19 | of D Eeconomic C E M B E Ractivities, 2015 the centre promised by Indian

polity, do not seem coming

Infrastructural bottleneck is the major hurdle in realizing our full potential. The government is well aware of it. The key reforms that are required to address this problem will be delayed further as the opposition that outnumber the ruling NDA in the upper house of the parliament will make it difficult for BJP to get bills passed. The address this issue the government is changing strategy, urging opposition

upper house of the parliament will make it difficult for

realize that they cannot keep on riding the Modi

BJP to get bills passed. The address this issue the

wave forever and their tried and tested strategy of

government is changing strategy, urging opposition to

Using PMs brand value needs a relook. The rising traded in US currency, an increase in value of dollar voices of fixing responsibility for the loss of Bihar accompanies a decrease in its price. within the party also needs to be handled with The crisisThe in international market has also negatively caution. rift between the neglected octogenarian

allow hassle free conduct of the winter session of parliament, from November 20 to December 23. The government has also cleared an FDI proposal of Rs. 40,000 crores by GE and Alstom for Bihar, initially made during Lalu Prasad Yadav’s tenure as a Railway minister, to woo the incumbent Mahagadhbandhan. The government eased FDI norms in 15 major sectors including strategically important areas like defence and aviation to show its commitments towards reforms. PM Narendra Modi also announced that there would be no more retrospective taxes to gain the dwindling confidence of international community.

In the medium term, the markets should see correction, as the fundamentals are still strong. IIP (Index of industrial production) has declined this quarters mainly

affected the Advani, price of Murli gold. The downfall the Trio (LK Manohar Joshiin and Chinese hasthe ledDuo to massive selling of 30 Yashwanteconomy Sinha) and of P.M. and President tonnes Gold Exchange because (of BJP)gold willatdoShanghai no good to the party.

These issues people in market wanted to pay off the debts and should be dealt privately and not politicised liquidate they become had done.a publically.every Thepossible veteransinvestment support will As a result the price of relatively gold dipped to its lowest due guiding force for the unexperienced top to excessive supply than demand and(Uttar forcingPradesh) people brass in these turbulent times. UP to sell at are lower prices.upIran’s nuclear with BJP the elections coming next year anddeal a united West has led to reduction in conflicts those will have a better opportunity to putinan endregions to this which in turn indicated the gold prices to be lowered. losing streak. This opportunity comes along with its Further, has asbeen theisdanger of being share of Greece challenges well.inUP a Stronghold of removed Euro list. hugeleader amount of debt BSP and from SP, absence ofIta has tall aBJP in UP and

because of a below normal monsoon. Automobile

which dealt with by sealingina certain last minute deal with strong itpresence of Congress constituencies its creditors gold. defeat would makethus lifeimbibing difficult less for value BJP. of Another

sector has picked up pace due festive season and lower

could betothe rattle for NDAs second inningthe in Moving thedeath factors internal to Indian economy,

EMIs because of base rate cuts by major banks last

power. The honeymoon NDA (RBI) is overhave and government and Reserveperiod Bank of India

month. PMI (purchase managers index), which shows

it’s high timemeasures to perform.

GSTgold is slated to be passed taken several to curb imports resulting

the status B2B buying, has also shown improvement

next month and if the and NDAmaking wants to come anywhere in lowering its prices it as an option for

from last quarter. Service sector has posted a higher

close to passing thisThis bill, then it will have lose its investment asset. reduction has toattracted

than average growth rate. These are indications towards

dictating attitude more demand compromising and consumers leadingand to be healthy and high

an improvement and Manufacturing should soon pick

ready to workThe in unpredictable a cooperativepattern manner with all consumerism. of monsoon

up with the yearend festive demand.

stakeholders. is also a matter of concern. India is the second largest

due reduced demand caused by clipped rural income

consumer of gold out of which rural population How costly was Bihar loss?

contributes to about 60% of overall buying of

The real impact of Bihar loss will unfold in some time.

products. With a good monsoon over the year the

The government would now have to push harder its

demand for gold would increase especially during

reform agenda with a touch of diplomacy. They have to

the festive season. On the other hand, lower levels of

realize that they cannot keep on riding the Modi wave

monsoon would negatively impact the demand for

20 | D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 5

forever and their tried and tested strategy of Using PMs

gold thus leading to an increase in its price.

brand value needs a relook. The rising voices of fixing

According to the facts, India has been the world’s

SLASHING GIFTING BUDGET THIS DIWALI

DIWALI NOT “DIL-WALI”

-Abhinav Banerjee

“Depreciating rupee, weak consumer demand showing

monsoon rains, depreciating rupee, weak market,

up in sluggish sales, muted wage growth, impact of

and impact of instability in global markets are the

turbulence in global markets are certain key factors

key factors to create an upheaval in the market. The

forcing corporate to slash their Diwali gift budgets

recent results of Bihar assembly elections have also

significantly,” states a quick survey by apex industry

added a lot of confusion and uncertainty in the

body ASSOCHAM. Diwali market plays an important

consumers mind. Also cost of living and prices of

role in the economic growth of a company, especially

food items have grown faster than earnings,

companies

and

compelling people to refrain from overspending

automobiles. A lot of budgetary planning depends upon

during the festive season, highlighted the survey

this fact. At the same time the purchasing power of

conducted under the aegis of ASSOCHAM Social

consumers

Development Foundation.

dealing

depends

with

upon

consumer

many

goods

factors

which

ultimately affect the Diwali sale. It has been a trend in

Though in recent times festivals give a platform to

the recent past to provide lucrative offers during Diwali

exhibit the financial status but this year there is a

to attract the consumers. In fact it is a two way business

bleak business trend as the Government failed to

procedure; consumers looking for better bargain and

ascertain a study economic growth. The cost of

companies looking for better returns and in return

living and prices of FMCG like pulses, edible oil and

companies provide corporate gifts.

others due to poor monsoon rains, have grown faster

The newly elected Government last year spread a lot of

than the predictions and earnings, compelling people

positivity in the market through their projected policies.

to concentrate on routine expenditure and refrain

Some positive steps taken by the Government boosted

from overspending on luxury items during the festive

optimism and as a result there was a rise in consumer

season, highlighted the survey conducted under the

confidence together with improved job security and an

aegis

insightful improvement in business sentiment which

Foundation. ASSOCHAM said it interacted with

encouraged companies to increase their festive budgets

about 1,000 working people and 500 companies'

by 10-15 per cent last year during Diwali, ASSOCHAM

representatives from diverse sectors during past three

secretary general D S Rawat said.

weeks across 10 cities including Ahmedabad,

of

ASSOCHAM

Social

Development

Bengaluru, Chennai, Delhi-NCR, among others to On the other hand the ground reality is altogether different. There seems to be a lot of difference between

ascertain the festive plans of individuals and companies.

theory and practice; lack of intention and control over hoarding catalyzed by poor production due to uncertain

Majority (about 60 percent) of the people said they

monsoon rains, depreciating rupee, weak market, and

have shelved plans for expenditure on big ticket

E C E M B EinR 2global 0 1 5 markets are the key impact 21of| Dinstability

items be it automobiles, consumer durables and other

factors to create a upheaval in the market. The recent

non-essentials fearing their companies might cut

recession and turbulence in the international economy and similar orthodox factors affecting the economy of a country. In this age of supercomputers, monsoon can be predicted better than ever before and the Govt. must be able to timely review its import policies to cope up with the shortage of food items.

The economy of a strong country willing to survive in the crisis of global recession needs to speculate the condition beforehand and take remedial steps in this regard. have shelved plans for expenditure on big ticket items be it automobiles, consumer durables and other nonessentials fearing their companies might cut bonus as they have witnessed a lull in most of this year.

Decline in profits owing to a lull season, poor monsoon, global slowdown, sluggish domestic investment scenario, high prices, interest rates, weak consumer sentiment, rupee devaluation and others are key reasons highlighted by the companies for cutting their corporate gift budgets, noted the ASSOCHAM survey. 500 companies’ representatives that Assocham interacted with said they plan to cut their festive budgets by at least about 20 per cent as compared to last year. Others said they plan to reward only performing employees and premium clients this Diwali.

Slashing corporate gifts is an indication of bad economic condition. Downtrend in the graph of economic growth in any form is an alarming situation.

The national economic policies supported by quality surveys and predictions should be strong enough to be unaffected by the common disturbances in terms of poor monsoon, productivity and shortage of food items, recession and turbulence in the international economy and similar orthodox factors affecting the economy of a country.22In| D this monsoon can be E Cage E MofB supercomputers, ER2015 predicted better than ever before and the Govt. must be

WAY TO PROGRESS

INDIA AFRICA THIRD SUMMIT

-Ranu Sarupria

India and Africa constitutes one third of the total

Reasons for Tie Up

world’s population. A large majority of them is youth.

Africa’s development in recent years has been

India and Africa has a significant part of the total global

impressive. First and foremost, it is the result of

youth population in this century. Their future will shape

African vision, leadership and efforts to strengthen

the course of this world to a large extent. Africa has a

peace and support economic development in the

rich history of accomplishments; abundant natural

continent. There are many inspiring models and

resources; and, a large and talented youth population.

examples of African success stories in sustainable

Africa has 60% of the arable land in the world, but

development

produces 10% of the global food output.

especially youth and women .India is privileged to

Development of the agriculture sector can not only

be a development partner for Africa. From the time

drive Africa’s economic development, employment and

African nations started gaining independence, India

food security, it could also turn Africa into the food

has been supporting human resource development in

bowl for the world. African achievements in recent

African countries. Our cooperation now takes many

times give us confidence in the future of agriculture in

forms. India has the distinct advantage of being

Africa. India has made considerable progress in

endowed with human resource skills and technology

agriculture and dairy sectors over the last few decades.

which are relevant and can be applied to the ecological

We are among the leading global producers in these sectors. Indian success has taken place in the context of low capital intensity farming and varied biodiversity conditions, which can be of great relevance to Africa.

The Summit is a testimony to the deep bonds of friendship and mutual faith between India and Africa. It is a relationship with a strong emotional link. It has been forged by our centuries-old ties of kinship, commerce and culture; our common struggle against

and

and

empowerment

geographic

of

people,

conditions

of

Africa. India has emerged as a major source of Foreign Direct Investment in Africa. Indian tourist flow to Africa also increased. Africa’s development is a huge opportunity for India, just as Africa’s resources, including oil, power India’s economic growth and create wealth and jobs in Africa. The continent’s progress will add great stability and momentum to the global economy and benefit India as well.

colonialism, our quest for equality, dignity and justice among all people and, our shared aspirations for our

How is it Helpful

progress and a voice in the world. This will be the

While India and Africa both performed on their own

foundation of our partnership in the years ahead.

to advance prosperity and peace for their people, their partnership can be a source of great strength for each other, both to

23 | D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 5

each other, both to reinforce and accelerate each other’s economic development. Both the countries have complementary resources and markets; and, the power of our human capital and shared global vision. This helped people of Africa to make their own free choices and the capability to shoulder the responsibility of their continent’s development. Our relationship with Africa is unique and does not need any point of reference.

Previous Summits In 2008, Delhi hosted the first India-Africa forum summit (IAFA). Aim was to meet India’s rising demand for energy, food, and minerals with the help of Africa’s rich but relatively untapped natural and human resources. The second IAFA held in Addis Ababa in 2011 also had a similar targets to achieve. . Since 2008, India has pledged over $8.5 billion in Lines of Credit for different development projects all across Africa; almost 65% of this loan package has been disbursed. In the last two summits, India had also promised to set up a more than 100 training institutes in different African countries, areas ranging from agriculture and food processing to information technology.

countering terrorism. The third Summit, which will see the participation of all African nations for the first time, will launch a new era of India-Africa partnership.

India Africa Third Summit The

Third

India

Africa

Summit

is

the

consultations between the heads of government of 54 nations across Africa and the Indian government to give a new thrust to our age-old partnership. It has been billed as the biggest gathering of foreign dignitaries in New Delhi since the 1983 Non

At the third India-Africa Forum Summit in Delhi, to set

Aligned Summit. The aim of the summits has been

substantially higher and ambitious targets. As in the

to re script the New Delhi’s Ties with Africa. The

past, primary aim was to support. African partners in

aim of the summit was to establish theme of

their efforts to accelerate the momentum of their

‘Partnership of prosperity’ between India and

development. It will also address key challenges of our

Africa. India Africa Forum Summit 2015 has

times, including food, health and environmental

major contributions.

security. Conditions that stimulate trade and investment flows between countries were created. The summit also reinforce partnership on the global platform and deepen security cooperation, including on maritime security, countering terrorism. The third Summit, which will see 24 | D E C E of M all B E African R 2 0 1 5nations for the first time, the participation

will launch a new era of India-Africa partnership.

P.M. Narendra Modi announced $10billion in new concessional credit to Africa an attempt to boost ties.

At the opening session of the third India-Africa summit in New Delhi, around $100billion to Africa Development Fund and $10billion to an India Africa Health Fund. Also inclined towards education,

will always be there, as a friend and partner, to share our experience, expertise and resources to support African nations in whatever manner they want.. The summit will witness an elevated partnership between India and the African countries and will aim to tap opportunities and expand two-way engagement in varied sectors.

Africa Development Fund and $10billion to an India Africa Health Fund. Also inclined towards education, 50,000 scholarships has been provided to African students. Also Lines Of Credit are being restructured to better suit the African partners. The new credit is to be disbursed in the next five years. This is in addition to the $7.4 billion in soft loans and $1.2 billion in aid India has provided since the first India-Africa summit in 2008. African countries are invited to join an alliance of Solar rich countries. Modi has also promised to connect Africa, from Marrakesh to Mombasa and Cairo to Cape Town, assist in infrastructure, power and irrigation development and set up industrial and information technology parks.

Conclusion Unsurprisingly, the 2015 summit has been seen as India’s way of competing with China in world’s most resource-rich continent. India can’t counter China’s increasing influence in Africa, but the Indian government wants to ensure that it doesn’t get left too far behind. . India has been trying to regain the ground it has lost in Africa to China and other Asian nations, positioning itself as a partner of choice in areas such as healthcare, education and investment and trade India will always be there, as a friend and partner, to share our experience, 25 | D E C E expertise M B E R 2 0and 1 5 resources to support African nations in whatever manner they want.. The

FOREIGN FUNDS FLOW

FPI INFLOW AT 7 MONTHS HIGH

-Hemlata Hajong

With the introduction of RBI’s rate cut policy and

the two. Firstly, FPI investors do not actively

positive macroeconomic numbers the country has seen

participate in the day-to-day operations and strategic

the highest investment by FPI since March when they

plans of the home company whereas FDI investors

had poured in Rs20,723 crore into Indian markets. Till

participate in the day-to-day activities. Secondly, FPI

now overseas investors have invested ₹27,697 crore in

has high degree of volatility and uncertainty whereas

equities and ₹55,096 crore in the debt market. This is

FDI is much more stable and very easy to sell off the

good news for the country’s economy especially after

assets. Lastly, FPI has larger net inflows than FDI.

the economic slowdown in China, which brought about

Benefits of FPI

global cash out. The Indian economy will grow if there is such high foreign investment inflow. When the magnitude of inflows and outflows are steady and stable India runs smoothly.

Foreign investment inflow is always beneficial to a country as the risk is shared. It is very easy to sell off securities and end the Foreign Portfolio Investment.

FPI can bring about rapid development for a growing

What is FPI?

country. Not only this but it also creates many new

Foreign Portfolio Investment like Foreign Direct

jobs and wealth.

Investment is a common method or a route to bring in

Why the change in the net inflow happened?

money from overseas investors to invest in an economy.

Both Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) regulate FPI. FPI and FDI are similar but not completely same. If the investment is 10% or more of a company’s equity, it is classified as Foreign Direct Investment as per OCED norms. Whereas, Foreign Portfolio Investment is the purchase of a company’s stock through the stock markets. Apart from these two there are other forms of foreign investment like Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) and Foreign Venture Capital Investors (FVCI).

But FDI and FPI are the most common ones.

FPI investors poured in over ₹22,350 crore (USD 3.44 billion) in the Indian Capital Markets in October. The net inflow in equities was ₹6,650 crore last month, while it was ₹15,700 crore for debt. This is the highest in seven months because due to the economic downfall of china FPI investors pulled out over ₹23,000 crore from the capital market in the past two months. They withdrew ₹5,784 crore in September and ₹17,524 crore in August. This is the highest net outflow in a single month since 1997. ₹5,173 crore was withdrawn on the “Black Monday” (BSE Sensex had crashed over 1,624 points while

Difference between FPI and FDI

50-share NSE Nifty dropped 491 points) alone. Last

There are some very fundamental differences between

this was seen in the aftermath of Lehman Brothers

the two. Firstly, FPI investors do not actively participate

collapse when there was global financial crisis. FPIs

in the day-to-day operations 26 | D E C E M B E R 2 0 1and 5 strategic plans of the

had then offloaded a net ₹15,347 crore from the

home company whereas FDI investors participate in the

markets in 2008. But the huge inflows during

had then offloaded a net ₹15,347 crore from the markets

pulled out ₹4,300 crore from the Indian markets in

in 2008. But the huge inflows during October reversed

the past five trading sessions. As per the data, net

the outflows seen during the past two months. Only due

outflow in equities stood at ₹2,667 crore between 2-

to Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan’s surprise

6th November and ₹1,689 crore for debt. This

rate cut inflow started back on its track. RBI eased the

happened right after the inflow hit of October and

interest rates by 50 basis points to 6.75 percent in late

announcement by US Fed chairperson Janet Yellen

September. In four and a half years this is the lowest

that US might hike its rates in the month of

RBI has eased on the interest rates. Also, RBI’s

December.

announcement of increase in FPI limit in government

Future Plans

securities has attracted overseas investors to invest more money in the debt market. FPI can now invest into government securities to 5% of the outstanding stock by March 2018, which is ₹1.53 lakh crore or $30 billion.

As a part of pre-budget 2016-17 exercises, the Finance Ministry interacted with over two-dozen FPIs such as Citibank, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Blackrock and Fidelity. The Government

Apart from the rate cut macroeconomic factors also

wanted to know from FPIs about the strategies

played a major role in attracting the FPI-

needed to implement by them so that they set up



trends,

business in India. Currently, foreign investors

infrastructure, inflation, foreign exchange controls.

collecting funds from countries like India, which has



Incentives for foreign investors.

Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement (DTAA) are



Government’s policy, political stability, etc.

exempted from paying short-term capital gains tax.



Labor, business opportunities, competition.

Economic

factors-

GDP

growth

But if the foreign fund houses establish their business in India, they are liable to pay capital gain tax as per

RBI is quite comfortable with the present interest rates.

the domestic taxation law. Global rating agency

Even when Government’s chief economic adviser

Standard and Poor’s (S&P) has announced that there

urged the RBI governor to take into account wholesale

would be no revision in India’s ratings for two years.

price inflation in monetary policy decision, Rajan was confident that consumer inflation was a more appropriate measure given its higher weighting of food prices and services.

The Indian economy is doing better than almost all the countries. It is expected that India would grow above 7.5% this fiscal year. The Government has already started with their new reforms to improve the

Current Status

country’s economic condition and has promised to

November again saw net outflow of equities due to

resolve concerns of FPI. The rate cut policy to attract

muted quarterly earnings and fears of a possible rate

more foreign investors being a major step.

hike by the US Federal. Foreign investors have again pulled out ₹4,300 crore from the Indian markets in the past five 27 trading | D E C Esessions.

M B E R 2 As 0 1 per 5 the data, net outflow in equities stood at ₹2,667 crore between 2-6th

ICICI SETBACK

ICICI BANK ASSET QUALITY SLIPS IN Q2

-Jharna Soni

ICICI Bank, India’s second largest bank in terms of

will keep on rising looking at the fact that ICICI bank

asset, is facing a major setback in handling its asset

is planning to strengthen its network in due course of

quality. Explaining what asset quality is, it is an

time. All these concerns have kept analyst perplexed

evaluation of asset to measure the credit risk associated

regarding the future performance of the company.

with it. Investors have been worried looking at the asset

The bank does not have an array of assets to be

situation in the banking industry and their concerns

restructured neither it is selling any loans to asset

have been proved correct by looking at the September

reconstruction companies during the September

quarter earnings of ICICI Bank. If we look at the bank’s

quarter, but it has refinanced Rs. 2000 crore loans

gross bad loan ratio ostensibly, it has inched up to

under

3.77%, demonstrating an increase of only 9 basis points

underlying stress in balance sheet, if not the fear of

since June. By large it computed Rs.720 crore to its

these loans turning bad. Looking at the overall

gross bad loans, but the bank disclosed slippages (fresh

number of restructured and bad loans, they together

loans turning bad) of Rs. 2242 crore. These slippages

account approximately 6.7% of ICICI Banks loan

were much inflated than Rs.1,672 crore seen in the June

book. This high percentage of stressed assets in the

quarter. Furthermore about Rs 931 crore of these NPA,

loan book is very large for a private sector bank.

the 5/25 scheme.

This

would

lead

to

that is non-performing assets, were from loans that have already been restructured. There has be a sudden uplift

Concentration Risk

of higher margin unsecured loan which further leads to

Concentration risk is the risk directed to a financial

pressure over asset quality.

institution by any single or group of exposures which

Moreover there are norms where banks are required to set aside huge lumps of money to cover bad and restructured loans. The deepening concerns for asset quality might also impact the overall profitability of ICICI Bank. “The delinquency breakup of the standard loan book suggests that early delinquencies (31-90 day due) have almost doubled from 3.6% of loans as at

have the potential to produce losses large enough to threaten the ability of the institution to continue operating as a going concern. In other words, it's the opposite of a diversified portfolio. ICICI Bank is showing a build-up of concentration risk in its book of accounts. There has been an increase in this risk both in percentage terms as well as absolute terms

FY14 to 6.4 per cent of loans as at FY15,” a report from

over the past year.

brokerage ambit capital said. This report raised

A report again by the ambit group pointed out that

concerns

operating

ICICI Bank’s capital funds as of 2014-2015 has

expenses also remain another major problem for ICICI

increased to 32.8%, as it has been exposed to a single

Bank. There is a high possibility that these expenses

corporate group. If we compare it to the previous

will keep 28 |on D Erising C E Mlooking B E R 2 0at 1 5the fact that ICICI bank is planning to strengthen its network in due course of

year 2013-2014, the capital funds had increased only

furthermore.

Accumulating

about 29.1 %. According to a report by CNBC tv-18

corporate group. If we compare it to the previous year

Bank and HDFC Bank (23-28 per cent), it is still

2013-2014, the capital funds had increased only about

about 9 percentage points higher than the industry.

29.1 %. According to a report by CNBC tv-18 on junky

Its high margin retail loans that grew 25 per cent in

25th, ICICI Bank has an exposure of Rs 5,780 crore to

the September quarter, compares well with the 27-29

debt-ridden infrastructure firm, J P Associates. In fact,

per cent growth of peers in this space.

the bank has the largest exposure to the group among a host of lenders, including State Bank of India and IDBI Bank, among others. The share price of the bank has also decreased to 17 percent due to weak asset quality, making the investors risk averse.

Stake Sale The increase in FDI (Foreign direct investment) limit in insurance from 26 per cent to 49 per cent will help key players in the financial services space unlock value in their insurance subsidiaries through a stake sale. ICICI Bank along with its joint venture that is, Fairfax Financing Holdings has approved the sale of 9 per cent stake in ICICI Lombard. This unlocking of value is an added advantage for the investors. But in contrast to companies such as Max India, Reliance Capital and Bajaj Finserv that obtain a chunk (44-85 per cent) of their implied stock value from the insurance businesses, banking stocks such as SBI and ICICI Bank obtain a lesser share. ICICI Bank’s proposed sale values the insurance company at Rs.17,225 crore, which is about 10 per cent of the bank’s current market capitalisation.

Conclusion ICICI Bank’s performance has been advantageous on other sphere when compared with its peers.

While the bank’s 17-per cent growth in overall domestic loans has been less than that reported by Axis Bank and HDFC Bank (23-28 per cent), it is still about 29 | D Epoints C E M Bhigher E R 2 0than 1 5 the industry. Its high 9 percentage

margin

Even though it still seems like ICICI will not get over with its asset quality woes, it is doing well in other sectors like insurance. Its asset quality will still need watching as its stressed assets i.e bad loans and restructured loans are very high when compared with other private sector banks in the country. All these slippages, fresh loans turning bad will have a huge impact on the banks stock performance. ICICI banks needs to pull up its socks and needs to get over this situation soon, if it still wants to be the leading bank in terms of assets.

ED TO PROBE?

BIG GIANTS FLOUTING RULES

-Chestha Kumar

One of the most popular activities on the Web is

commerce companies and located in Seattle,

shopping. It has much allure in it- you can shop at your

Washington. According to the research conducted in

leisure, anytime, and in your pajamas. Literally anyone

2008, the domain Amazon.com attracted about 615

can have their pages built to display their specific goods

million customers every year. The most popular

and services. History of e-commerce dates back to the

feature of the website is the review system, i.e. the

invention of the very old-notion of “sell and buy”,

ability for visitors to submit their reviews and rate

electricity, cables, computers, modems, and the

any product on a rating scale from one to five stars.

internet. E-commerce became possible in 1991 when

Amazon.com is also well-known for its clear and

the Internet was opened to commercial use. Since that

user-friendly advanced search facility which enables

date thousands of businesses have taken up residence at

visitors to search for keywords in the full text of

web-sites.

many books in the database. One of the more company which has contributed much to the process

At first, the term commerce meant the process of execution of commercial transactions electronically with the help of the leading technologies such as Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) and Electronic Funds Transfer (EFT) which gave an opportunity for users to exchange business information and do electronic transactions. The ability to use these technologies appeared in the late 1970’s and allowed business companies and organizations to send commercial documentation electronically. E-commerce

of e-commerce development is Dell Inc., an American company located in Texas, which stands third in computer sales within the industry behind Hewlett-Packard and Acer. Dell.com was the first company to record a million dollars in online sale.

The company’s unique strategy of selling goods worldwide with no middlemen and with no retail outlets has been admired by a lot of customers and imitated by a great number of e-commerce businesses.

is unthinkable without the Amazon and E-bay which were among the first Internet companies to allow

Creating an e-commerce solution mainly involves

electronic transactions. Thanks to their founders we

creating and deploying an e-commerce site. The first

now have a handsome ecommerce sector and enjoy the

step in the development of an e-commerce site is to

buying and selling advantages of the internet. Currently

identify the e-commerce model. Depending on the

there are 5 largest and most famous worldwide Internet

parties involved in the transaction, e-commerce can

retailers: Amazon, Dell, Staples, Office Depot and

be classified into 4 models. These are:

Hewlett Packard.



Business-to-Business (B2B) model

Amazon.com Inc. is one of the most famous e-



Business-to-Consumer( B2C)model

commerce

companies

and

located

in

Seattle,

30 | D EAccording C E M B E R to 2 0the 1 5 research conducted in Washington.

2008, the domain Amazon.com attracted



Consumer-to-Consumer (C2C) model

undertake B2B e-commerce exercise and never B2C.



Consumer-to-Business( C2B) model

The stated ads addressed to the general public basically tantamount to retail buying and selling”.

The B2B model involves electronic transactions for ordering, purchasing, as well as other administrative

CAIT stated in a letter to the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) secretary

tasks between houses. It includes trading goods, such as

Amitabh Kant. The CAIT’S argument is that since

business

services,

the possession of stock shouldn’t be held by the

manufacturing, and wholesale dealings. Sometimes in

stated corporations, they cannot supply ‘sale’ or

the B2B model, business may exist between virtual

‘reductions’ in totality on their on-line portals. Doing

companies, neither of which may have any physical

so establishes that they don’t seem to be market and

existence. In such cases, business is conducted only

as such brazenly flout FDI coverage.” it added. The

subscriptions,

professional

through the internet. For e.g. Amazon.com

commerce ministry has requested the Enforcement

The B2C model involves transactions between business

Directorate (ED) and RBI to look at whether or not

organizations and consumers. It applies to any business

e-commerce majors violated FDI rules by partaking

organization that sells its products or services to

in enterprise-to-shoppers (B2C) exercise. Sources in

consumers over the internet. These sites display product

ED stated such instances are already underneath

information in an online catalog and store it in a

probe. CAIT appealed that the three on-line retailers

database. The B2C model also includes services online

must be restricted to conduct such gross sales and

banking, travel services, and health information.

fast instructions could also be handed to them for

The C2C model involves transactions between consumers. Here a consumer sells directly to another consumer. For e.g. EBay.

violation on the Consolidated FDI policy. ”It requested that the matter could also be examined and applicable motion could also be taken,” stated a letter by the ministry addressed to ED and RBI.

The C2B model involves a transaction that is conducted between a consumer and a business organization. In this case, the consumer is the seller and the organization is the buyer. The consumer decides the price of a particular product than the supplier.

According to the Consolidated FDI policy circular 2015, e-commerce exercises refer to the considered one of shopping for and promoting by an organization via the e-commerce platform. Such corporations would interact solely in B2B e-

E-commerce websites Flip kart, Amazon and Snap deal,

commerce and never in retail buying and selling,

which just lately carried out mega sales, solicited most

inter alia implying that present restrictions on FDI

of the people via massive commercial marketing

home buying and selling will probably be relevant to

campaign in print, digital and social media. “Since they

e-commerce.

have acquired overseas funding, they are allowed to undertake B2B e-commerce exercise and never B2C. 31 | ads DEC E M B E R to 2 0the 1 5general public basically The stated addressed

tantamount to retail buying and selling”. CAIT stated in

RAISING THE STAKES

TATA GROUP- THE NEW ENTRANT IN THE E-COMMERCE SECTOR

-Swarupa Roy

We all have experienced change at some or other point,

by e-commerce sites were not so high, but now in the

but the interesting thing about it is that change is not

last few years, the sector is expanding at remarkable

restricted to our life only. Everything around us, known

rate. In the year 2014, the entire Indian e-commerce

and unknown, are undergoing change and evolving

industry stood at a total worth of INR 81,525 Crore

either for the best or worse. For example let’s take the

as compared to just INR 26,263 Crore in 2010. As

market, earlier 20 years ago things were way different

seen, just in a span of 4 years the value of the e-

with people trading in the stock market by being

commerce sector has tripled but then this is just the

physically present, but today, most of us can easily do

beginning. According to industry experts, digital e-

that sitting at our home or office. So what led to such

commerce in India is set to touch the bench mark of

change in just 20 years? All the answers lead back to

INR 1,05,808 crore by the end of 2015. The rapidly

just one word, Technology.

changing consumer behavior and the increasing

Technology has now installed Internet, Smartphone, laptops and highly advanced gadgets in our life which has not only made things easier but also have carved the way for many new changes surrounding several small and big things. And, the best illustration of this is the rapid growth of e-commerce all over the world and the high inclination of society towards it. With the busy

number of e-commerce sites on the internet can be quoted as the main reasons behind such large growth in less time. Plus, the ‘Digital India’ initiative of the government in the nearer future will definitely play a vital role in uplifting the e-commerce industry of India to new heights, with even the rural population having proper access to the services and facilities.

work life and the high technology adoption, people find

While e-commerce is very much more than just

it simple and hassle free to meet their daily

online retail shopping, it’s the shopping websites like

requirements through the internet on their phones or

Flipkart, Amazon, Snapdeal, Jabong, Ebay and many

laptops. And hence, there is a boom and demand in the

more that have the major role in such high turnover

e-commerce sector which can be witnessed in its

of the industry. And, the success of these established

unprecedented

and

sites has only proved how the Indian consumers are

availability of more customer choices is now leading to

quickly accepting e-commerce over the traditional

the brick-and-mortar stores being slowly and gradually

methods of services or shopping. For any business it

replaced by the online stores and services.

has now become important to go digital to ensure

growth.

Better

convenience

As of 2015, India has an internet base of more than 300 million and this is an indicator of a strong opportunity for the Indian e-commerce. Earlier, the market tapping by e-commerce sites were not so high, but now in the 32 | D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 5

last few years, the sector is expanding at remarkable

maximum

market

penetration

and

customer

awareness which in turn would help the business to not only grow but survive in the high competitive market. Speaking of such high competitive market, some of the very established names in the Indian industry market have now finally chosen to venture

market. Speaking of such high competitive market,

online retailers and offline retailers to present

some of the very established names in the Indian

something unusual from the existing online retailers.

industry market have now finally chosen to venture into the digital e-commerce. Recently, the successful and popular Aditya Birla Groups launched their own ecommerce site of shopping, and now the biggest conglomerate of India; Tata Group

have also

announced their decision to be a part of the growing ecommerce bandwagon.

The market capitalization of Tata Group as of March 2015 is $134 billion. Of all the Tata ventures, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) alone forms nearly twothird of its market value. Owing to this, as compared to its main competitor Reliance, Tata Group has managed to remain the top conglomerate in country with the trust of more than 3.9 million investors. Its

Tata Group is a name known to all and is India’s first

new decision to launch its own e-commerce venture

and most successful conglomerate. Dealing in more

has created more discussion and curiosity among the

than 13 industrial sectors, Tata Group has its business

people. Earlier, Ratan Tata had invested in online

spread vastly over six continents and more than 100

retailer like Snapdeal and Bluestone, which initially

countries. Over its 146 years of service, the Tata Group

sparked debate of the venture of Tata Group in this

has made a big name in steel, services, electrical,

sector.

automobile,

consumer

products

and

hotel

and

hospitality sector to name a few. Many of its brands and associated brands are well-known and one of the most preferred name not only in India but abroad also. Such a success has only helped reach this Indian conglomerate to new heights, and adding one more feather to its cap, the current chairman of Tata Group, Cyrus Mistry recently announced the plan of the company

to

enter

into

e-commerce

industry.

Developing its own new venture for this sector, the Tata Group promises to launch something entirely new and different which will not only connect its online and offline businesses but will also be a unique venture than its other counter parts. All set to bring out an Omnichannel branded marketplace, according to the Executive director of Tata Group, K.R.S Jamwal, the consumers and the market are set to witness an E-retail version 2.0. The company is planning to merge both its online retailers and offline retailers to present 33 | D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 5

something unusual from the existing online retailers.

The new online enterprise is expected offer the retail products of Tata Group companies along with different other retailers. To make this marketplace venture a success, Tata Group have begun hiring experienced people who earlier have been a part of many big e-commerce sites. While all the possible steps are being made by this company to ensure a performer in e-commerce sector, there are other developments that it also needs to consider. Tata groups competitors, Reliance and Aditya Birla Groups have also announced their interest and plans to venture in this sector with the latter already launching a fashion shopping site. In such circumstances and the rapidly increasing Indian ecommerce sector, it is to be seen how the biggest Indian conglomerate places it e-commerce project in the market and what role it plays in the development of Indian e-commerce Industry.

DISTURBING THE DECENTDANTS

DRAGON’S ABORTION OF ONE CHILD POLICY

-Prateek Pandey

China has decided to scrap its 35 years old one-child

if they attempt to do so. It's unlikely that much will

policy. This controversial policy was not only

improve

associated with overseas criticism but also ranklement

acknowledges that its crisis is not one of flawed

from home for decades. The news of abolishment of this

actuarial tables, but rather a flawed ideology in

policy came in form of a single line tweet from a state

which utility and efficiency predominate, and human

based news agency after the annual four-day plenum of

beings are treated merely as means of production

the Chinese Communist party’s Central Committee.

instead of the end purpose of development.

This tweet failed to provide information on timeframe

Strategy behind the move

until

the

Chinese

government

as to when this policy would be enforced or other details 1. China has been facing problems of aging population for that matter. from a long time, some experts say that “China could One child policy was introduced in 1979 by the be the only country to become old before it becomes Communist party to put the saddle on the runaway

rich”. This aging population is considered to be the

population growth of the country. This stringent policy

depreciating China’s biggest asset i.e its workforce.

faced

of

Some major cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou

reproduction. But, the same policy aided China

already have a top-heavy population structure similar

preventing 400 million births and helped the nation

to that in developed Western economies like the

rapidly improve its economic fortunes and limit even

United States. – leading to an increasing burden on

greater strains on natural resources. Also, two years

those of working age, and a shortfall in the nation's

ago, government allowed couples in which one partner

pension fund. Due to one child policy, country have

was an only child to have two offspring, and in most

been going through a large number of forced

rural areas, if the first child was a girl or disabled,

abortions and sterilizations thereby increasing the

parents were allowed to have a second child to try for a

number of depression patients and in some cases

boy or a healthy infant. Ethnic minorities were also

death. Another potential plus for the nation is

allowed more children. But now, Even though one child

righting China’s skewed gender balance. Since many

policy is getting abolished, people of China are still

families, particularly in rural areas, still subscribe to

restricted to go beyond two children. By relaxing its

the traditional Chinese belief that a son is more

child quota, the Chinese government hasn't abandoned

valuable than a daughter, many parents have, over

its reliance on force to ruthlessly control its citizens'

the past two decades, aborted female fetuses, leading

reproduction. Women who wish to have three or more

to gender imbalance with birth ratio of some 118

children will presumably face the same brutal

boys to every 100 girls.

domestic

resentment

over

consequences if they attempt to do so.

34 | D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 5

freedom

2. China’s exports have slumped to a six-year low, manufacturing output is falling, and GDP growth fell to 6.9 percent in the last quarter – the first time it has

5. China’s exports have slumped to a six-year low,

appreciable rise in fertility. The effect will be

manufacturing output is falling, and GDP growth fell to

temporary, over the next five years that will lift the

6.9 percent in the last quarter – the first time it has

annual birth rate from 13 million this year to almost

dropped below 7 percent since early 2009. The Party

16 million in 2018. But that increase won't do

reiterated its goal of doubling GDP and incomes

anything to halt the long-term decline in births,

between 2010 and 2020 - entailing a medium-high

because the age profile of China's current population

economic growth target. The move is designed to show

means the number of women of child-bearing age is

that the Chinese authorities can take decisive and

destined to fall by a third over the next 20 years,

effective action, in sharp contrast to their clumsy

regardless of any new policy initiatives from Beijing.

handling of a boom and bust on the country’s stock

As a result, moving to a two-child policy will only

market, and the surprise devaluation of China’s

delay the peak in China's population by some five

currency, the Yuan.

years from 2019 to 2025, before it goes into long-

6. China’s economy had been going through an

term decline. Nor will relaxing the rules do much to

insufficient growth in terms of infrastructure from a

boost China's workforce and alleviate the strain of

long time. Discarding the one child policy will give rise

supporting a growing population of the elderly.

to population and thereby increasing the much awaited

Besides this, many couples would hesitate to giving

demand in infrastructure sector of the country. Thus

birth to the second child because raising another

‘Make more babies, so they buy more houses’.

child in terms of lifestyle and education would be

7. Inadequate health care and educational facilities in rural

expensive.

areas and small cities have long been a problem in China

Also, in the near term, it will cause workforce

and because of that the government will have to take the

numbers to fall as more women take time off to have

lead by making fresh investments in these areas to

babies. And in the longer run it will lead to an

reassure parents that proper facilities would be available

increase, not a decrease, in the dependency ratio, as

if they opt for a second child. Increase in number of

working-age couples find themselves supporting an

population will create a demand which as a result will

extra child, as well as four retired parents of their

catch the investor’s eye making the country committed

own. For all that, any move to loosen the current

to liberalizing its service sector to foreign investment. It

rules should be applauded.

said it would accelerate implementation of free-trade zones, and intervene less in the pricing of goods and services.

8. The Road Ahead 9. China can expect a baby boom. But although relaxing family

planning

restrictions

could

trigger

an

appreciable rise in fertility. The effect will be temporary, 35 | Dover E C E the M B next E R 2 0five 1 5 years that will lift the annual birth rate from 13 million this year to almost 16

“FINANCIAL TRIVIA” The stock market is named after former Boston Bruin enforcer P.J. Stock’s great, great, great grandfather, when he started selling chunks of a company that didn’t actually exist. The company was named Stocks.

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36 | D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 5