The IBS Times; 184th Issue; September 2015

NO ACCHE DIN FOR SMALL BUSINESSES BY SAKSHI ISSAR

The IBS times September 2015, Issue No. 184

BLACK MONDAY BY RAVI RANJAN PANDIT

2-Year Report Card

BY ABHINAV BANERJEE

WHEN CHINA SNEEZES, THE WORLD CATCHES COLD

BY JATIN SHARMA 1|SEPTEMBER2015

FinStreet, IBS Hyderabad

ISSUE NO. 184, SEPTEMBER 2015

What’s Inside

2|SEPTEMBER2015

INTELLIGENCE BEYOND SUCCESS

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR TEAM IBS TIMES KAUSHIK CHANDELL (EDITOR-IN-CHIEF) AVIK CHAKRABARTY (MANAGING EDITOR) ALISHA SINGH APOORVA ANUSHA

KOLISETTY AISHWARYA MANJARI SHARMA NAVJOTH SAHU PRIYANKA MALIK RAHUL MISHRA RIPU TANDON SACHI KHESKANI SAMEENA USMAN

Dear Readers, Greetings from Team FinStreet.

We are happy to inform about the overwhelming response from the management students for The IBS Times. Placement Season in going on and during the period we’ve received a large number of feedbacks about how our magazine has supported the fellow students with their GDs and Personal Interviews. This love and support encourages us to work more and more trying to deliver our best only for you guys.

Team FinStreet is proud to present the 184th edition of The IBS Times.

Our team, in this edition brings to you instances on Black Monday. Also, we have shed some light on HDFC Bank’s rate cut along with rich in knowledge articles like India’s Iran Oil Import, Joint venture between GIC and DLF. From the global market, Times brings to you the strained friendship of Xi Jingping and Putin going with the name of XI getting unPUTINified. For your better understanding about the market scenario we have for you, our famous Market Watch titled When China sneezes, the world catches cold. From the Industrial point of view we have shared our insights on Telecom Industry. This issue from the investment point of view brings to you two exhaustive report on Tata Consultancy Services published by Team Vriddhi Research and Ashok Leyland by Arihant Jain (member, Team FinStreet)

SRISHTI KARMAKAR ABHINAV BANERJEE

Hope you have an enriching experience reading The IBS Times. Your feedbacks and opinions will help us make it better.

ANUPAMA KUMARSWAMI CHESTHA KUMAR EYAMINI N

Kaushik Chandell Team FinStreet

HEMLATA HAJONG ISHAN GUPTA JATIN SHARMA JHARNA SONI PRATEEK PANDEY RANU SARUPRIA RAVI RANJAN PANDIT ROHIT TILLU SAKSHI ISSAR SANDHYA ADHAVAN SUPRIYA GAUR SWARUPA ROY 3|SEPTEMBER2015

-MILTON BERLE

THE BLOODBATH ISN’T OVER YET?

BLACK MONDAY

-Ravi Ranjan Pandit

It was a 'Black Monday' again in markets today and

and said fundamentals of Indian markets remain

history shows that seven out of ten biggest carnages on

strong. As the stock market saw a bloodbath, the

Dalal Street has taken place on a Monday! This strange

investors wealth crashed by over Rs. 7 lakh crore in

coincidence holds true for biggest crashes in terms of

the biggest ever single day loss, as global rout caused

Intra-day movements as well as the closing levels of the

jitters across the board. Top 20 companies accounted

market benchmark Sensex. The Sensex closed at

for more than 5 lakh crore of losses. Among

25741.56 down 1624.51; marking the biggest ever

Investors classes, the promoters share was more than

mauling it has received historically. The second highest

50 percent at about 4 lakh crore, while FIIs are

closing fall for the market was also on a Monday Jan

estimated to have taken a hit of close to Rs. 1.5 lakh

21, 2008, when it closed for the day down 1408.35

crore on their portfolios. The loss in the account of

points. March 17, 2008 a Monday again saw a decline

retail investors is estimated at about Rs. 75000 crore,

of 951.03 points and March 3, 2008 which also a

while Institutional investors also took a hit of about

Monday saw fall of 900.84 points the fourth highest on

Rs. 1 lakh crore. The total investor wealth, measured

record. Out of the ten biggest falls at closing levels,

in terms of collective value of all listed stocks, fell to

seven has been on Mondays, two on Thursdays and one

Rs. 95.29 lakh crore at the end of trading session.

on Tuesday.

BSE is among the world’s ten largest exchanges in

In terms of Intra-day crashes, Monday's crash of

terms of market value, while it is the largest globally

1624.57 points fall is the third biggest ever since the

for no. of firms listed on its platform. It has over 4000

2272.93 points fall on Jan 22, 2008 and 2062.20 points

actively traded companies and nearly 2.7 crore

in Jan 21. Out of ten Intra-day fall, six were on Monday,

investors trading on it.

two were on Fridays, one each on Tuesday and

Panic swept the global markets two weeks after the

Wednesday.

first tremors were felt when China unexpectedly

In the worst ever carnage in stock market, benchmark

devalued the Yuan. Indian stocks tumbled, crashing

Sensex today crashed by 1624.51 points and nearly 7

by the most in more than seven years, amid a tsunami

lakh crore got wiped out from the investors wealth as

of sell orders that started in Asia, flooded across

rout on Chinese stocks triggered a global sell off. The

Europe and then slammed into the US. In China

Intra-day fall was even larger at 1,741.35 the third

itself, stocks plunged by a level of last seen in 2007,

biggest ever and highest in over seven years since Jan

crude fell further and commodities plummeted to a

21, 2008. Finance minister Mr. Arun Jaitley and RBI

16-year low. The Dow took a 1,000-point plunge at

Governor Mr. Raghuram Rajan sought to allay the fears

the opening. More than $5 trillion of investor wealth

and said fundamentals of Indian markets remain strong.

had been wiped out due to the drop in equities in the

4|SEPTEMBER2015

past two weeks across the world.

As the stock market saw a bloodbath, the investors While the rupee slid to a two -year low on Monday,

had been wiped out due to the drop in equities in the

paisa, or about 1.25% to the greenback closing at

past two weeks across the world.

66.65 compared with 65.83 last Friday on 21 August.

While the rupee slid to a two -year low on Monday, stock market investors in India lost, Rs. 7 lakh crore in the biggest single-day loss in market capitalization. The Sensex plunged 1,624 points or 5.94%, to 25,741.56, its sharpest Intra-day drop since June 2009. The Nifty plunged 490 points, or 5.92%, to end at 7809, its heaviest intraday slump since October 2008. The NSE Index VIX, which measures volatility, clocked a record intraday gain of 64% to 28.13, reflecting extreme global nervousness about the ability of the Chinese government to prevent a slowdown that could inflict severe damage on many economies. Finance Minister Mr. Arun Jaitley said the rout was "transient and temporary in nature" and had little relation to India.

"The factors responsible for this are entirely external".

There is not a single domestic factor in India which has either contributed to it or added to it. Rajan said India's macroeconomic underpinnings were sound and that its reserves could be deployed to protect the currency. “India is better placed compared to other countries with low current account deficit, and fiscal deficit discipline, moderate inflation, low short-term foreign currency liabilities, very sizeable base of forex reserves," Rajan said.

"The latest rupee fall is nothing unexpected as the local unit is still overvalued in terms of Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER). The central bank was suspected to have sold dollars heavily at 66.50 levels, but later the pace came down as it was not protecting any level. RBI may have sold close to $500 million. The rupee had weakened to a record low at 68.86 in August two years ago. In terms of REER, the rupee is still overvalued by 8-10% Investors: Wealthy investors and proprietary brokers bore the fury of Monday's crash as the sell -off, triggered by global market fears, sent all their bets awry. Many derivative traders suffered severe losses as they rushed to cover these bets, jacking up volatility by a staggering 64%, its steepest daily rise in five years.

On the flip side, foreign investors, considered to be the movers of the market, managed to offset some of their share losses by having purchased the very bets that HNIs and Pro desks sold, assuming the markets would not break below key 8300, 8200, 8000 support levels on Nifty. However the almost 6% market fall sorely belied the seller's hopes. The jump in volatility pushed up the price of Nifty options which HNIs and pro brokers sold to foreign investors, to stratospheric

The Rupee:

levels. This prompted the FIIS to square off their The Indian rupee on Monday hit a fresh two-year low mirroring weakness

in

other emerging market

currencies versus the US dollar as global investors pressed the panic button on falling commodity prices and tumbling Chinese markets. The local unit lost 82 paisa, or about 1.25% to 5|SEPTEMBER2015

positions - sell back the options to the HNIs at a higher price than what they had purchased. Option sellers were left bleeding as the 8300 put rose by a provisional 745%, the 8200 put by 1279% and 8000 put by 3565% by the end of what some brokers dubbed " Black Monday".

Apart from shorting options, HNIs and pro brokers

put by 3565% by the end of what some brokers dubbed

The Global economy is right in the middle of a

" Black Monday". Apart from shorting options, HNIs

significant transition, in other words as rich

and pro brokers confident of markets remaining above

economies try to normalise policy while China tries

key support levels ahead of derivatives expiry, were

to rebalance. That transition is proving difficult for

heavily long stock futures. Such was the optimism that

policy makers to manage, and markets are wobbling

HNIs trimmed their short Nifty futures bets - which

under the strain. A replay of financial crisis of 1997

could have offset their losses to some extent - from 3.1

looks unlikely. Asian governments are in far better

lakh contracts to 63,782 contracts.

shape to weather these sorts of changes in the

Commodities:

economic climate. Currency pegs that triggered trouble in the late 1990s have largely been replaced

Bloomberg global commodities index has fallen below

by floating rate regimes, foreign-exchange reserve

the 2003 bottom and now is at the lowest level since

piles are larger, and financial systems are better

1999.The global commodities index was 87.29 on Aug

managed and more robust. Neither does a 2008-style

24,1999, rose to high of 237.95 around 2005 and later

meltdown appear to be on the cards. The global

fell to 85.91 on Aug 24,2015. Though good for

banking system is much haler than it was on the eve

commodities consuming countries like India, this may

of financial crisis. The mispricing of entire classes of

be hinting of serious impending trouble for the global

risk-assets and the interconnectedness of vulnerable

economy, indicating we may be heading towards a

financial institutions that fueled the panic of 2008 are

global recession.

both absent now. Europe's recovery remains fragile

Conclusion:

and export dependent. This gloomy outlook was there for all to see before this mess. Few seem to

The proximate cause for all this is a chain of events that began with the surprise devaluation of the Yuan on August 11th. More than 1 trillion USD have been wiped off on global stock prices since then. A weakening outlook for Chinese growth, and a slip in China’s currency, has combined to put pressure on the emerging economies-and especially those whose growth model depends on Chinese demand for Industrial and other commodities. Tighter monetary conditions in America have led to reduced capital flows to big emerging economies, to a rising dollar, and to more difficult conditions for firms and governments with dollardenominated loans to repay.

6|SEPTEMBER2015

have anticipated that it would have such serious effects so soon.

RATE CUT EFFECT- ACTIVE OR STAGNANT? ++

HDFC BANK’S RATE CUT: BEGINNING OF AN INDUSTRY SHIFT? What has come as a smashing blow to other banks is the announcement of reduction in base rate by HDFC bank effective from 1st September, 2015. The decision is considered to be crucial because it would put other banks off-guard forcing them to think vigorously about

-Supriya Gaur

rates and yield of a fixed income security.

1% change = 100 basis point and 0.01%= 1 basis point. So if the interest rate is changed from 8 percent to 9 percent it is said to have increased by 100 basis points.

whether to cut base rates of their bank or continue with the same. Since base rate is the force that drives all other

Net Interest Margin

rates including lending rates, such a decrease would

Net Interest Margin or NIM measures the

definitely hurt the customer base of other banks. Before

performance of a firm’s investment decisions by

looking at the impacts of this decision let us first

comparing it to the debt situations. It is given by the

understand some basic terms and then shift our focus on

following formula:

the impact of change in base rate.

NIM= (Investment Return-Interest Expense) / Base Rate

Average Earning Asset

Base Rate is the minimum rate that a bank is allowed to

A negative NIM would indicate that the firm has not

charge from its customers. The Reserve Bank of India

made an optimal investment decision because its

(RBI) has stated several methods for arriving at a base

expenses are more than its returns.

rate and the banks can use any one of them but are required to disclose publicly the method they have

HDFC base Rate

adopted. Unless RBI allows to charge at a different rate,

Housing Development Finance Corporation Limited

no bank can offer loans at a rate lower than the base

(HDFC) was the first to receive an in-principle

rate. A bank can change its base rate every quarter or

approval, an approval based on certain conditions

during the quarter. Loans for agricultural purpose,

and finalized only when those conditions are met,

against any fixed deposit, to bank’s own employee and

from Reserve Bank of India to set up a bank in

to exporter are not charged according to the base rate.

private sector and was primarily positioned to

Base rate aims at bringing transparency in the bank’s

promote a bank in the Indian environment.

lending business.

Basis Point A basis point (bps) is a unit that is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent and is used for depicting changes in interest 7|SEPTEMBER2015

Being a private player in the banking sector HDFC is always in competition with other banks such as Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India (ICICI), Kotak Mahindra and Axis bank. These banks are required to maintain a certain base rate based on the guidelines given by the Reserve Bank

12

cZ

HDFC Bank Base Rate

capital and are fixed income securities. But Ashish Parthasarthy, head of treasury at HDFC bank, is of different opinion. He quoted that the bank’s base rate

8

cut is related to the formula that the bank uses for

6

lending rates and has nothing to do with the

4

competition.

2 0

1st Sep'15 15th Jun'15 7th Apr'15 2nd Nov'13 3rd Aug'13 30th…

31st Dec'12 30th Jun,12 13th…

12th Jul'11 12th…

14th…

24th Feb'11 1st Jan'11 5th Oct'10 1st July'10

BASE RATE (%)

10

Impact on competitors The profitability of banks can be measured in terms of the difference between the rates that they charge to their customers and the rates at which they borrow

banks are required to maintain a certain base rate based on the guidelines given by the Reserve Bank of India.

If all the banks have almost same base rate then the borrowers are indifferent among them to a certain

or pay to the depositors. This margin or turn is kept by the bank and is known as the net interest income of the bank which is further divided by the bank’s earning assets to form net interest margin.

extent. But on the other hand if one bank has a lower base rate than others then it will definitely attract a large

Now, if a bank lowers its base rate it will probably

customer base and this will hurt the share of other

earn lower margins than before resulting to a

banks. So each player tries to be in a position where it

decrease in its profit. As a consequence of HDFC’s

can at least maintain its current customer base.

decision of reduction in the rate, other banks such as

Keeping in mind the impact of base rate on a bank’s performance, HDFC bank on 31st August, 2015 announced a 35 basis point base rate cut making it to 9.35 percent from 9.70 percent, to be effective from 1st September, 2015. This is the lowest base rate in the country. Earlier HDFC bank had cut its base rate by 15 basis points from 9.85 percent to 9.70 percent. This reduction led to a lower Equated Monthly Instalments (EMIs) and cheaper loans for the customers. The current cutback could be a step towards remaining competitive towards corporate bond yield which have lowered in the past. Corporate bonds are basically the debt instruments which the companies use for raising capital and are fixed income securities. But Ashish Parthasarthy, 8 | S E Phead T E Mof B Etreasury R 2 0 1 5 at HDFC bank, is of different opinion. He quoted that the bank’s base rate

the State Bank of India (SBI), Axis bank and ICICI bank will have to encounter a shrivel in their profitability. According to Nomura, a Japanese financial holding company, three-fourths of ICICI and Axis bank’s lending might be affected by the lower base rates. Moreover it also analysed that the base rate cut will have an impact on the net interest margin in the near future but the after effects in the long run seem to be positive. Other banks now have almost 30-35 basis point higher base rate than HDFC and these banks cannot sustain such a large difference for more than 1-2 months. The current base rate of SBI is 9.7 percent, ICICI Bank 9.7 percent, Kotak Mahindra Bank 9.75 percent, Axis bank 9.85 percent and Bank of Baroda 9.9 percent.

In case of HDFC bank only 30-40 percent of its loan book is linked to the base rate while in the case of

banks), the commercial banks will automatically be signalled to cut the base rate.

According to Purvesh Shelatkar, Head of Research at BoB Capital Markets Ltd., “HDFC Bank’s move will most likely trigger a reaction from rivals and eventually pull down bank lending rates by 2-3 percent in the next two years”. Almost two years are required for a small reduction in the base rate most probably because the demand for corporate loans is Fig. Current base rate of various banks bank 9.85 percent and Bank of Baroda 9.9 percent. In case of HDFC bank only 30-40 percent of its loan book is linked to the base rate while in the case of corporate banks like ICICI, Axis and Yes bank around 65-75 percent of its loan book is linked to the base rate. Thus, a reduction in base rate will lead to lower net interest margin of these corporate banks.

The Final Take

still lower. Therefore, reduction in HDFC bank’s base rate would not lead to a shift of significant consumer base within these two years period as customers require a high level of comfort while moving from one trusted source to another and just because of lower lending rates they would not shift to other banks at a rapid pace.

In order to experience the impact of this rate cut one needs to sit and wait for a few years. Until then every mind will be hovering around to get an answer to the

Corporate players like SBI and Axis bank might wait

question that whether reduction in base rate will shift

till the end of September to first have a look on the

the industry or will it remain stagnant for years to

impact of reduced base rate on loan demand and then

come.

take a move to decide whether to continue with the current base rate or lower it in order to remain competitive in the banking sector. Moreover the pending decisions of US Federal Reserve on interest rate and the Reserve Bank of India on rate action might have also pulled them back to arrive at an accord. Any change in the interest rates by the US Federal Reserve is likely to have an impact on the repo rate of the Reserve Bank of India. If RBI reduces repo rate (the rate at which the central bank issues loan to commercial banks), the commercial banks will automatically be signalled to cut the base rate.

9|SEPTEMBER2015

According to Purvesh Shelatkar, Head of Research at

A DEAL BETWEEN GIC & DLF

A JOINT VENTURE

-Ishan Gupta

The Government of Singapore Investment Corporation

diversified portfolio spread across diverse asset

(GIC), one of the largest sovereign wealth funds (SWF)

classes. Most of its investments are in the public

in the world, has entered into 50-50 joint venture with

equities, with a smaller percentage in alternative

DLF for development of two projects in New Delhi.

investments such as private equity and real estate.

The wealth fund is looking to invest $300m in India.

The government deliberately does not reveal the

The fund continues to bet on India, as this comes after

exact fund managed by the GIC because the fund

the firm’s investment in Bandhan bank (The newest

size taken together with the published assets of MAS

bank on the block) and Ola cabs earlier this year.

(Monetary Authority of Singapore) and Temasek (another government fund), results in publishing of

Before going into the details of the deal, here is an

the full size of the country’s financial reserves.

overview of sovereign wealth funds as a whole and GIC in particular. Some countries set aside the excess from

DLF is one of the largest listed real estate company

central bank reserves that accumulate as a result of

in India. After the sub-prime mortgage crisis of 2008

fiscal & current surpluses and even from revenue

there was turmoil in the global real estate market.

generated through the exports of natural resources. This

The Indian real estate sector has been struggling

fund is then used by these governments to invest in

since and the pressures have only increased as there

various financial instruments to earn excess revenue

is excess supply, lower consumer spending and high

that can subsequently be deployed for the welfare of its

interest rate. DLF was facing the additional burden

citizens in the future. It is basically a portfolio that is

of high debt. To reduce the burden of its debt the

created, funded and managed by the government. A lot

company decided to sell its non-core assets. Over the

of countries globally have created SWF. The most

last three years the company has sold its Kochi land

prominent among them are Norway (Global Pension

parcel (Rs. 111Cr.), DT cinema (Rs. 500Cr.), Aman

Fund-Global worth $882bn), UAE (Abu Dhabi

resorts (Rs. 2200Cr.) and a land parcel to Lodha

investment authority worth $773bn) and China (China

developers (Rs. 2,700Cr.). Even after raising a

Investment Corporation worth $747bn).

staggering Rs 10,000Cr. Through this process the company’s debt is still around Rs. 21,000Cr. Even

The Government of Singapore formed the GIC in 1981.

Today, it is one of the world’s largest global investors,

through this deal with GIC the company is looking to offset some of its debt.

with about $344bn (estimated) of assets in more than 40 countries worldwide. The firm manages foreign

Coming to the deal details, the company’s subsidiary

exchange reserves of the Government of Singapore. It

DLF home developers entered into the joint venture

is a fairly conservative investor, with a globally

for two projects in central Delhi. The project will be

diversified portfolio spread across diverse asset classes.

spread over 25 acres of land in the Moti Nagar area

| Sinvestments E P T E M B E are R 2 in 0 1the 5 public equities, with Most of10its

of west Delhi and will be called DLF Capital Greens

a smaller percentage in alternative investments such as

6. It is the same neighborhood as another one of the

spread over 25 acres of land in the Moti Nagar area of

(Real Estate Investment Trusts) that allows listing of

west Delhi and will be called DLF Capital Greens 6. It

such trusts and their units on bourses like equity

is the same neighborhood as another one of the

shares. This will give an alternative to bank finance

company’s current project called Capital Greens. The

to the parched realty and construction sectors.

company has already secured all approvals and is likely to launch the project in the next few months, however the construction could take up to five years. There is also speculation that the construction work could be outsourced to another company.

estate (Earlier entered into Rs. 1,500Cr. venture with Brigade Enterprises to develop properties in southern parts of the country) the current and immediate outlook for the real estate sector is not bright. The prices of real estate have been nose-diving, builders are stuck with excess supply and high interest rates have been restricting investment. Further rising bad loans have forced banks to restrict loans for either old projects or new projects to real estate companies. Looking at some statistics, according to knight frank estimates, the rate of residential property growth has been flat in most major Indian cities. As of December 2014 both the cities (Delhi and Mumbai) have ~2 Lac unsold inventory.

Further

They did not find many takers for the project when they assessed the demand for it through local brokers. Further there are also rumors that company plans to hold the sale only when the market

Although GIC is not new to investment in Indian real

residential

Even for this project there are some uncertainties.

the

vacancy

of

commercial space has been ~20% in both Delhi and Mumbai.

Although the government has taken some steps to boost the real estate sector, they alone will not be enough.

These measures included relaxing rules for FDI in the construction sector (in terms of reduced minimum builtup area as well as capital requirement and easing the exit norms). Also SEBI has issued guidelines for REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) that allows listing of such trusts like equity shares.

11 | and S E Ptheir T E Munits B E Ron 2 0bourses 15 This will give an alternative to bank finance to the

improves.

Housing is a very important need for people and all stakeholders realize it. GIC invests a small portion of its portfolio in emerging market economies and an even smaller part in real estate. Nonetheless the company’s investment in the sector shows its faith in the country and the company (Of course they diversify their investments across various entities to reduce their risk). The other partner DLF has been in the business for a long time, although it is struggling considering both market and company factors, it should be able to come out of it. Overall, this deal is good for the sector. It shows that the investors see potential in the market and are willing to take risk.

Further they are typically long term investors and can wait to generate good returns. This will also help improve the standing of DLF in the industry.

UPS AND DOWNS

MANUFACTURING PMI DIPS AFTER A WEAK GDP DATA

-Sandhya Adhavan

"We need to move beyond gross domestic product as

measuring the growth of the service sector. The three

our main measure of progress, and fashion a

sectors agriculture, manufacturing and mining alone

sustainable development index that puts people first"

contributes to GDP for about 87 percent of all

- UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon As rightly quoted by the UN Secretary-General Ban KiMoon, our GDP (Gross Domestic Product) does not correctly measure our economic development. Before understanding the limitations of computing GDP, let’s understand what GDP is. It is one of the primary

economic activity.

Purchasing Managers Index PMI indicates the health of the manufacturing sector.

This is based on five indicators such as new orders, inventory level, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

indicators that is used in estimating the health of the country’s economy. That is, monetary value of all the finished goods produced in the country in a specified time. There are many limitations in using GDP as a way to measure current income and production. Some of the major limitations include changes in quality and inclusion of new goods, underground economy – where cash transactions take place outside the marketplace that are not included in GDP, Non-Market production, that is goods and services produced but not exchanged for money etc.

If the PMI is more than 50, it represents expansion and if it is less than 50 then it indicates contraction in the sector’s growth. Recently, the GDP showed a decrease in the manufacturing sector’s growth.

According to Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock average, the leading index of Japanese stocks, the PMI data revealed that the factory production expanded, but in a slower pace in August as compared to July. Even though PMI fell from 52.7 in July to 52.3 in August, it is still the highest in six months, wherein the manufacturing sector has been seeing a consistent

The total GDP comes from four components of

expansion after October 2013. There are also

economic activity which are services, industrials and

regional purchasing managers’ reports that are issued

manufacturing, mining and agriculture. For each sector

earlier than the PMI for a given month, but PMI is

we have a method of measuring the growth. One such

the only national indicator. Markit PMIs are also

index that helps us to measure the growth of the

among the closely watched economic indicators in

manufacturing sector is PMI (Purchasing Managers

the world which tracks business conditions for over

Index). Service sector, which is the biggest sector of the

thirty countries. The data compiled by them also

economy did not have a method to measure the growth

indicate an unsatisfactory improvement in the

until recently. HSBC, with Markit Economics, has

manufacturing growth. The reason that they provide

formed HSBC India Services PMI, which helps in

for this poor performance is the softer increase in

measuring the growth of the service sector. The three

output, orders and stock of purchases.

sectors12agriculture, and mining alone | S E P T E Mmanufacturing BER2015

“This possibly showed that consumption demand

contributes to GDP for about 87 percent of all economic

could pick up in the coming months as benefits from

This possibly showed that consumption demand could

The GDP data revealed that the growth in demand by

pick up in the coming months as benefits from lower

the private consumption expenditure slowed down

inflation materialize,� said Rishi Shah, economist,

from the private consumption expenditure slowed

Deloitte.

down from 7.9 percent in previous quarter to 7.3

Growth in manufacturing sector and IIP The GDP data showed that the growth in the

percent in first quarter of the current financial year.

Conclusion

manufacturing sector slowed from 8.4 percent in the

The PMI of manufacturing sector is closely watched

previous January-March quarter to 7.2 percent in the

not just for the sector but for the economy as a whole,

first quarter of the current financial year April-June.

as it is the industry where the recession tends to begin

This constitutes almost thirty eight percent of the Index

and end. It is useful when taken in the context of

of Industrial Production (IIP).

indicators such as GDP and Producer price index.

IIP is an economic

indicator released by the Federal Reserve Board. This indicator is used to measure the amount of output from the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas industries. The reference year for this index is 2002 and a level of 100. The quick estimate of IIP pertaining to a month is released after approximately six weeks (on 12th of the Month, or if 12th is a Gazette Holiday, on the previous working day). The industrial production and related capacity utilization are considered as coincident indicators because the changes in the levels of these indicators reflect similar changes in the overall economic activity, and therefore Gross Domestic Product. Also the industrial sector is the one which exhibits the most volatility in terms of the nominal output during a business cycle. Therefore, significant changes have been the historical forecast of business cycle turning point. The growth of new orders moderated in August is reflecting a weaker movement in both domestic and overseas demand, according to Markit Economics.

7.9 percent in previous quarter to 7.3 percent in first quarter13 of|the S E current P T E M Bfinancial E R 2 0 1year.

5

But the slowdown of the manufacturing sector arises despite the manufacturers making steep price cuts.

There was also a fall in the finished goods stock dropping to its lowest level since April 2005. This dip in GDP and PMI is not a good sign for the Indian economy, therefore certain immediate measures should be taken before it results in recession.

India’s economy growth is not growing in a pace as expected by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which might prompt for more rate cuts from his side. The doubts still persist on the new way of calculating the GDP. Reality is that, our economy is still struggling to pick up.

INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

TELECOM INDUSTRY

-Ranu Sarupria

Telecom is one of the fastest-growing industries in India. Today India stands as the second-largest telecommunications market in the world. The mobile phone industry in India would contribute US$ 400 billion in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) of the country in 2014.

This sector which is growing

exponentially is expected to generate about 4.1 million additional jobs by 2020, as per Groupe Speciale Mobile Association (GSMA). For many years now, there have

•Teledensity (defined as the number of telephone

been significant shifts within the telecommunication

connections for every hundred individuals) increased

industry, especially around Mobile communications.

from 18.3 in FY2007 to 79.67 in FY 2015nbsp;

From the day mobile devices were conceived, there’s almost no other industry that has seen such monumental

•In May 2015, total telephone subscription stood at 1,002 million, while teledensity was at 79.67nbsp.

ups and downs.

Facts of Telecom Industry Wireless segment dominates the market •India's telephone subscriber base reached 1,002 million in May, 2015 •The wireless segment (97.36 per cent of total telephone subscriptions) dominates the market, while the wireline segment accounts for the rest •Urban regions account for 55.76 per cent of telecom subscriptions, while rural areas constitute the remaining •India

Key Revenue Streams An increase in the mobile services will lead to large volumes of data. The sheer volume of devices and

is

currently

the

second-largest

tele

communication market and has the third highest number of internet users in the world •India's telephone subscriber base expanded at a CAGR of 19.22 per cent to 1,002 million over FY07–15 •Teledensity (defined as the number of telephone 14 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

connections for every hundred individuals) increased

data – along with innovative and exciting applications of mobile technology – are driving new revenue opportunities for the telecommunications companies that are ready to embrace change.

1. The Internet of Things is creating new

5. B2B

want

more

sophisticated

consumers. By 2020, there will be over 50

services. Almost every business – large or

million devices with sensors that receive and send

small – is thinking about moving to the cloud,

large volumes of data over the Internet. These

if they already haven’t. This movement, along

machine-to-machine (M2M) devices are as

with the enablement of others services such as

simple as a vending machine that accepts wireless

virtual private networks and hosting, will drive

transactions to more complex devices.

tremendous growth in the B2B telecom market.

2. It’s

becoming a smarter,

more

mobile

6. There is money in leveraging data. Another

world. Believe it or not, by 2019 there will be

area of tremendous growth is the vast volumes

three times as many smart phones in the world as

of data that telecommunications companies

today. And with these devices quickly becoming

handle. The monetization of this data can lead

the default gateway to the Internet, there will be

to better customer service and retention

nine times as much traffic. Faster mobile data

through more individualized service. On an

technologies, such as 4G in mature markets and

aggregate level, insights from this data are a

3G in emerging ones, will become a big market

gold mind for marketers and advertisers that

opportunity for those that want to capitalize on it.

can capitalize on the information to develop

3. The faster growth is in new, emerging markets. Speaking of emerging markets, more than 85% of the industry’s growth is expected to

more targeted customer promotions.

Pestel Analysis of Telecom Sector Govt. Allows 100% Fdi in Telecom

come from China, India, and Brazil in the fouryear period from 2013 to 2017. Many of these markets will simply bypass the path of fixed-line technology that the rest of the world travelled and head right to mobile technology.

Over a weakening rupee, government moved a step closer to overhauling its foreign direct investment (FDI) policy as it lifted caps for the telecom sector and asset reconstruction firms, besides tweaking norms for 13 sectors. The limit for defence

4. Mobile commerce is the new money. Payments with mobile devices to machines such as the vending one mentioned above are expected to reach $13 trillion by 2017. Telecommunications companies can play a key role in these transactions by creating applications enabled by near field communication (NFC).

production companies was also virtually raised to 100 per cent, subject to approval from the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS). Also decided at the meeting was that FDI cap for private insurers would be raised to 49 per cent but that would need Parliament’s approval. The FDI limit for credit information firms was raised from 49 per cent to 74 per cent — all of it may come through the automatic route, against the requirement for clearance from the

15 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB).

Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB).

awaited report on the Net Neutrality issue, recommending the Telecom Regulatory Authority of

Call Drops Issue

India (TRAI) to regulate the voice calls conducted by According to the Telecom Regulatory Authority of

the Internet users of over-the-top (OTT) services.

India (TRAI) only Bharti Airtel in Mumbai and Tata Teleservices in Delhi met the laid-down quality of

Employment Status

service (QOS) benchmarks for call drop rate, which as

India's telecom industry is expected to generate 40

per norms should be less than 2 per cent.. The service

lakh new jobs in the next five years, spurred by

quality audit was done in the two cities in June and July.

growing potential in rural markets and rising Internet

In Mumbai, Idea has a call drop rate of 5.56

penetration.

percent, Tata has 5.51 percent, Vodafone has 4.83

According to experts, surge in demand would be

percent, Aircel has 3.19 percent and Reliance has 2.29

seen for skilled technicians, engineers, installation

percent. Only Airtel meets the benchmark with a call

and maintenance service providers, sales, marketing,

drop rate of 0.97 percent. The situation is not very

HR in the sector.

different in Delhi with Reliance having a call drop rate

Conclusion

of 17.29 percent, Airtel 8.04 percent, Aircel 5.18 percent, Vodafone 4.28 percent and Idea 2.84 percent.

The tide has turned for the telecom sector in India, as

Tata is meeting the benchmark with call drop rate of

growth and profitability has accelerated in recent

0.84 percent.

times. Tower companies are reaping benefits of a turnaround in the sector as operators have started

Government Confiscated Illegal Network Towers

investing in networks to boost data penetration. The

Government took serious actions against the telecom

telecom industry today is going through a

companies. It seized all the illegal mobile towers and

progressive shift from voice services, the perennial

those which emitted harmful radiations more than the

mainstay of the industry - to data services, thereby

prescribed standards. Some operators violated norms

creating a new direction for the future of the

laid down by the Telecom Enforcement Resource and

industry. The government is planning to reduce

Monitoring

of

regulatory hurdles by ensuring clarity on issues such

Telecommunications (DoT) while installing mobile

as mergers and acquisitions but also increased the

towers but they claim that it not entirely their fault.

foreign direct investment limit in the sector from

(TERM)

cell

of

Department

76% to 100%. The industry faces a cut-throat

No More Net Neutrality

competition. First, discounts by new entrants forced Net Neutrality is simply the Internet Freedom — Free,

the established companies to reduce tariffs. The

Fast and Open Internet for all. The Department of

number of data services subscribers, who generate

Telecommunications (DoT) has now released a much-

decent revenues, has been growing 30% on a quarter-

awaited

on-quarter basis.

report

on

the

Net

Neutrality

issue,

16 | S E Pthe TEM B E R 2 0Regulatory 15 recommending Telecom Authority of

India (TRAI) to regulate the voice calls conducted by

MARKET WATCH

WHEN CHINA SNEEZES, THE WORLD CATCHES COLD

-Jatin Sharma

The World market has been badly battered during the

on moving downward with faster rate till the end of

last month. Red Monday has wiped huge amount of

the month. To arrest the slide of confidence finance

money of investors all over the World. A lot of

Minster Arun Jaitley made announcement that this

economies, especially south-east Asian, have been

stock market fall is transient, it has no substantial

performing poorly. Commodity prices are going

reason behind it and fundamentals of Indian

through a downward phase and crude has touched a new

economy are completely intact.

low of $40. Stock index of all major stock exchanges

Currency Market

have tumbled precipitously and it looks as the World is heading towards an economic slowdown. With confidence in developing economies dwindling, FIIs and ETFs are flying back to safety of financial system of The U.S. Billions of dollars have flown out of China as well as India. Likely interest rate hike by Fed will further jeopardize possibilities of an economic recovery. Eurozone is mired with debt burden of Greece and similar situation building up in Italy. Puerto Rico, America’s Greece, defaulted on its 58 million dollar debt payment and it looks like this was first of the many more to come. Italy is treading the same path as Greece did with its debt soaring to 138% of GPD and youth unemployment rate at a historic high.

Stock Market Nifty and SENSEX both were down in August due to the crippling effect of Red Monday. The Index initially fell by small amount followed by precipitous fall whereby Nifty breached sub 8500 mark and SENSEX below 27500. Both the index have remained under their usual mark of 9000 and 28000. Till 20th of August, BSE and NSE maintained usual value of around 28000 and 9000 and then started their journey downhill and kept on moving downward with faster rate till the end of the S E P Tthe E Mslide B E Rof2 confidence 015 month.17 To|arrest finance Minster

Arun Jaitley made announcement that this stock market

Indian currency market received a major shock leading to rupee tumbling to 2 years low of around USD 67. Currency depreciation was majorly due to Chinese devaluation of Yuan and subsequent strengthening of Dollar. Political logjam over Goods and services tax (GST) which led to dampening of inverstor confidence and uncertainity regarding Pnotes accentuated the dip in confidence. Chinese devaluation of Yuan was the trigger point of this volatility and caused an upheaval in Ringgit, Yen, Malaysian dollar and Singapore dollar. Export oriented industries i.e. Pharma and Information Technology (I.T.) were benefitted by this.

Commodity market Even commodities could not stay isolated from wrath of Chinese devaluation of Yuan. Problems with Chinese economy, an important importer of Indian commodities, had huge impact on the prices of various commodities. Exchange rate fall led to a severe fall in the prices of Gold of which India is the largest importer and Consumer. Fall in crude prices had a positive effect on lowering inflation. Crude is India’s largest import item. Crude prices have also had a downward effect on air turbine fuel (ATF) prices and they have been instrumental in enabling

Currency

Rupee

Commodity

1 US $

66.455

Gold

26274

1 Euro â‚Ź

75.1924

Silver

35619

1 Japanese ÂĽ

0.5498

Crude oil

3041

1 Singapore $

47.5256

Natural gas

178.2

1 Renminbi

10.7714

Aluminum

107.2

Copper

361.8

Nickel

672.6

Lead

113.6

Zinc

115.05

Mentha oil

919.6

Cotton

15940

FIG: Graph 1: Stock movement for Sensex.

Graph 2: Stock movement for Nifty.

Table 1: Currency Market Table 2: Commodity Market

18 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

India’s largest import item. Crude prices have also had

was 7.5% which is below the World Bank’s

a downward effect on air turbine fuel (ATF) prices and

expectation of 8% but the Indian finance Ministry is

they have been instrumental in enabling aviation sector

still confident of clocking a rate of 8% or above.

perform well, Indigo posted a trebled net profit.

Sugarcane industry is reeling under losses and requires support package by government. Exchange rate overall has dampened exports than imports and this has widened the gap between the two. This is reflected in increasing current account deficit.

big way and rural population, which constitutes 70% of total population, makes a big portion of the Total demand. Upcoming festive season would be very

November could give the badly needed impetus to

Overall the global economy is depressed as growth engine of the World “China” is slowing down. Its growth numbers have been below expectations and there are signs about China’s export oriented growth model getting saturated. To maintain competitiveness Chinese government tried devaluating Yuan for the second time. But this led to exchange rate war with Rupee, Yen and Ringgit depreciating. Creating deflationary situation in Asia and the rest of the World.

This gives India a Golden opportunity to lay the foundation for its path to economic superiority. With investments

below normal. Monsoon impacts rural incomes in a

crucial and could possibly lead to recovery. October-

Conclusion

huge

Rain god can play party pooper if monsoon stays

flowing,

under

developed

manufacturing sector, huge scope of infrastructure development in the form of smart cities, government initiatives to promote manufacturing through make in India program, increase of FDI in newer sectors, and an abnormally high growing ecommerce industry, there are ample avenues for profitable Investments. With US economy performing well over the past months there considerations by FED in its quarterly review to raise interest rates and when that will happen lucrativeness of Asia as an investment centre vis-à-vis the U.S. will decrease further .The GDP growth rate for last quarter was 7.5% which is below the World Bank’s expectation 19 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

of 8% but the Indian finance Ministry is still confident

the demand that the manufacturers are looking for and can give an extended buoyancy in the upcoming months full of important events like Christmas and New Year. Bihar election results can completely change the fate of GST and that is the reason the entire World is following this election keenly. There also has been a cry for reducing interest rates by the government and industry. Inflation figures are benignly low and oil prices are not likely to rise anytime soon, low oil prices are the main reason for low inflation rate. Apart from inflation, Index of industrial production (IIP) has increased at a 4 month high of 3.8%. This has further bolstered the demand from Indian Inc. for a rate cut. The right mix of caution and growth oriented policy is the need of the hour and it will be interesting to see whether RBI and Finance ministry can strike the right chord.

CRYING OVER ONIONS

BEGINNING OF AN INFLATION WAR?

-Hemlata Hajong

A day has come in India when people are stealing onions. Anand Naik, the victim had 750 kilos (1,653 pounds) of onions snatched from underneath a tarp by his roadside stall in Mumbai last month. It was all because of the rising price of onions. Onion prices have doubled since July. Currently one kg of onion is priced at â‚š60- â‚š80 in different parts of India. In India, the onion is more than just a vegetable. The woe is for daily wage earners and below poverty line (BPL) people. For them onions come in their staple diet as other vegetables cost even more. A nutritious diet for a poor man is impossible if inflation grows at this rate.

The change in price of onions has many stories.

According to the government, prices of onions have been rising on account of a decline in total production from 189.23 lakh tonnes in 2014-15 as against 194.02 lakh tonnes in 2013-14. There is a

Inflation in general terms is when the purchasing power

decrease of 4.79 lakh tonnes. However, it is only one

of a person declines. For single goods he has to pay a

aspect of the story.

lot of money. The prices not only of luxury goods but also of many essential commodities such as wheat, rice, vegetables, oil, cloth, etc. also start to rise. It refers to a situation where the demand for goods is high but the goods available fall short of the demands. This gap between demand and supply leads to inflations and causes immense misery to all sections of the people.

The inflation rate is based upon the consumer price index (CPI). Inflation rate in India averaged at 8.33 percent from 2012 until 2015, reaching an all-time high of 11.16 percent in November of 2013 and a record low of 3.78 percent in July of 2015. Cost of food and beverages rose 2.89 percent in July following a 5.73 percent increase in June. The food alone index grew only 2.15 percent, declining from a 5.5 percent rise in

Onion produce in the country has rapidly grown over the last few years. India has emerged as one of the major exporters of onions in the world. In 2013, more than 5,20,000 tonnes were exported by India in the period between April-June. In addition to this the crop is planted thrice a year, which ensure that there are more onions than needed in the market at any given point.

June.

20 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

Few more facts on onion farming: 

Mostly small and marginal farmers carry out onion production in India. Therefore they are incapable of manipulating market supplies.



The rabi crop, harvested between April and June, accounts for 60%-65% of the annual production and sustains till October-November.



Karnataka and Maharashtra together account for more than half of the country’s onion production.

Now the mystery lies in the fact that if enough onions are being produced and inflation was at a record low of 3.78% in July, why onions have become so expensive.

Also, basic economic theory tells us that when supply of a good grows, especially for goods like onions, prices fall.

In 2011, the Union finance ministry, then headed by Pranab Mukherjee, reacting to surging onion prices, ordered an income tax raid on some of the biggest onion traders in Maharashtra accused of hoarding the crop.

Overnight prices fell by 60%. In 2012, the Competition Commission of India revealed in their study that the rise in price was due to the lack of competition in the markets as big players dominate in the wholesale markets instead of independent farmers or small traders who could keep the prices in check. The study even showed that the price rises were largely artificial and due to big traders who bought farm produce in bulk at cheap during harvest season when farmers look to

anywhere from 10-170% further adding woes of consumers. But they do that when the wholesale prices are low and they can get away with their traded in US currency, an increase in value of dollar inflated prices. As soon as wholesale prices increase, accompanies a decrease in its price. the retailers lower their markup price because the The crisis in international market has also The negatively demand automatically falls down. crop affected price gold. The downfall in the situationsthe were notofchecked timely and thus, the Chinese economy led to massive selling of 30 information on losshas in production was not anticipated tonnes gold at Shanghai Gold Exchange because by market intelligence. people in market wanted to pay off the debts and Because of all these our country is now suffering liquidate every possible investment they had done. from shortage of supplies. Major producing states As a result the price of gold dipped to its lowest due like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya to excessive supply than demand and forcing people Pradesh are about to exhaust. A senior official of to sell at lower prices. Iran’s nuclear deal with the NHRDF said that prices would remain high and West has led to reduction in conflicts in those regions farmers and traders would keep supplies of new crop which in turn indicated the gold prices to be lowered. under stress to maintain high level of onion prices.

Further, Greece has been in the danger of being Meanwhile, Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based on removed from Euro list. It has a huge amount of debt inflation rose for the third straight month to 6.1% in which it dealt with by sealing a last minute deal with August, driven by a massive 244.62% jump in onion its creditors thus imbibing less value of gold. prices on annual basis. Currently wholesale prices of Moving to thebeen factors internal Indian economy, onions have settled for to ₹55 per kg, helpedthe by government andEgypt Reserve of India (RBI) have imports from andBank Afghanistan.

The kharif taken several measures to curb gold imports crop in all the major producing states willresulting increase in its prices and making as then an option for thelowering availability of local onions, butittill the “aam investment asset. man) This will reduction aadmi” (common have to has pay attracted a higher consumers to healthy demand price. By leading increasing the price now and RBIhigh is consumerism.

The unpredictable pattern of monsoon implementing its game plan to bring inflation down is matter concern.

India the second toalso 4% aover theofnext couple of is years.

Centrallargest bank consumer of gold out of has which ruralthepopulation Governor Raghuram Rajan marked long-term

among few traders is the root cause of this increase in

contributes to prices. about Years 60% of of9% overall buyingprice of fight to control plus growth products.

With good the year the growth have leftaits hugemonsoon mark on over Indians.

price. It is not just the wholesale traders. Few retailers

demand for gold would increase especially during

in major towns and cities often inflate the price

the festive season. On the other hand, lower levels of

anywhere from 10-170%

monsoon would negatively impact the demand for

dispose off produce and earn some money. Collusion

21 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

gold thus leading to an increase in its price.

According to the facts, India has been the world’s

COVER STORY

NO ACCHE DIN FOR SMALL BUSINESSES

-Sakhsi Issar Per the 2006-07 census, there are over 26

Understanding what are Small businesses:

million MSMEs in India. ~ 97% of these won’t show MSME constitutes:

up in any official statistics since they are



Manufacturing Sector



Services Sector

unregistered or operate as sole proprietorships / partnerships. A company is Micro, Small or Medium depending on the amount invested in plants &

Manufacturing Sector

machinery. MSMEs employ ~ 60 million people and

Micro Enterprise

contribute ~ 20% to India’s GDP.

A micro enterprise is an enterprise where investment in

Of these, over 98% are ‘Micro’ enterprises. The

plant and machinery does not exceed Rs. 25 lakh

majority are ‘one-man shows’ that provide services to local markets with minimal investment. They use

Small Enterprise

traditional techniques; have no formal management

A small enterprise is an enterprise where the investment in plant and machinery is more than Rs.25

practices and lack access to bank credit.

India has come a long way

lakh but does not exceed Rs.5 crore; and Indian business scenario has revolutionized over the Medium Enterprise

years. The country’s mind set has transformed. As

A medium enterprise is an enterprise where the

per a survey conducted by Microsoft-BCG, every 5

investment in plant and machinery is more than Rs.5

minutes while you are reading the article 4 new e-

crore but does not exceed Rs.10 crore.

commerce websites are opening up in India. Earlier the small businesses were largely unregistered but that is not the case anymore. With more educated and informed youth entering the market the shape of the small

It would be absolutely correct to say that small businesses include be relatively young & relatively small (by revenue) companies. These include: startMicro,

Small

and

Medium

Enterprises

(MSMEs), Small Scale Industries (SSIs), new ventures,

has

changed.

The

22 | S2006-07 E P T E M Bcensus, E R 2 0 1 5there the

million small business owners in India, out of which, around 500,000 have their presence online while there are only 23 million small businesses in the US. There are many fronts in which the government has disappointed its supporters but small business space is where the gap is felt the most.

spin-offs, spin-outs, etc.

Per

sector

transformation is such that There are around 40

Services Sector

ups,

business

are

over

26

million MSMEs in India. ~ 97% of these won’t show

Funding: a major concern The conditions of small business have not changed

Funding: a major concern

And probably only to the ‘Medium’ enterprises.

The conditions of small business have not changed with

By any measure, this is hugely insufficient in the

the change in the Central government. Apart from the

context of my 10,000 estimate. And it gets worse:

usual activities involved in running the business, the



The average VC deal size in India is ~ 20

small entrepreneur is still hounded by various

crore. That puts the average pre-money

governmental officials. The small entrepreneur is the

valuation at 40 – 60 crore.

softest target for extortions from all sides the local



To stand a chance of an IPO on the NSE or

gangster (sheltered by the local politician), officials

BSE, a company must ideally have revenues

from starting from the local municipality right up to

of over 100 crore.

excise/service/income tax department. 

Apart from these external factors, funding is a major concern for any business. Most SMEs rely on family, friends & personal networks for funding. Only a select few have access to risk capital from angels, VCs, and

While governments & banks may be more open to smaller deals, they offer a different set of challenges – slower processes, risk-aversion, stringent spending terms & conditions, limited exposure to risk capital, etc.

certain schemes from government/banks. On the basis of data provided by Capitaline: 

businesses. In the Indian VC world, this would count On average, < 100 Indian companies get VC funding every year.

 



as ‘seed funding’ or ‘early stage funding’. It is supposed to be followed by Series A, B, C on its way

On average, angels & angel networks (eg. Mumbai

to a 100-1000 crore valuation. But not every SME is

Angels) fund ~ 50 startups every year.

a glamourous, Silicon Valley style, tech startup. Not

On average, government schemes for startups (eg.

every SME is addressing a 1000 crore market. Or

DSIR’s TePP, TDB seed funds) fund ~ 100

even a 100 crore market. So all this talk of ‘seed

enterprises every year.

funding’ is not relevant or sufficient in every case.

On average, ~ 50 companies get listed (via IPOs) on our stock exchanges every year. Of the ~ 2000



SMEs need to invest 10 lakh – 5 crore in their

Plight of small businesses

companies that traded publicly, 80%+ are quite

Ever since this government came into power, a

illiquid.

slowdown was inevitably observed. The economy

On average, bank lending to MSMEs accounts for

was suffering a slowdown after a few months of

< 10% of total commercial lending. It’s usually in

elections. Although all Indian companies are

the form of secured, collateralized debt – not ‘risk’

suffering in this phase, small businesses get affected

capital. With personal guarantees from borrowers.

And probably only to the ‘Medium’ enterprises.

23 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

the most. For most firms, operating profits during the first quarter of the current fiscal year have not only shrunk, but have contracted at a more rapid pace than a year ago. Due to the fizzled out Modi government, the market sentiments went back to being less than positive internationally. Apart from all the international factors, one policy that was widely unwelcomed by small businessmen was the service tax levied on all businesses.

The reason small businesses are always worst hit is because they don’t have huge capital assets to use for raising money which makes their survival tougher. The current economic slowdown is no different. Even though the economy is expected to grow by 7% the smaller firms are constantly losing out on opportunities.

Apart from being hit badly, smaller businesses in India were also observed to be the first to suffer. Companies with revenues less than 25 crores had started failing two years ago and the companies that are currently above 500 crore bracket, sales growth has fallen, but is still in

also affect their ability to pay their loans at a time

the positive territory. In the June 2015 quarter, it’s the

when lending rates haven’t really fallen much

grouping of smallest firms which has seen the sharpest

despite an accommodative monetary policy. Interest

decline in sales—of 33.7%. Not just the revenues but

coverage ratios are lower, the smaller the size of the

other parameters that can be judged to find out growth

firm. The largest set of firms has an interest coverage

rate also indicate the same results. If we consider,

ratio of 3.5 times, while those whose quarterly sales

operating profit for bigger firms we can find out that it

are less than Rs.25 crore are barely earning enough

is growing, even though the pace of growth has slowed

to meet their interest expenses.

down. But for all firm groupings with quarterly sales of

World economy has also affected the businesses and

less than Rs.500 crore, operating profits have fallen. For

the government hasn’t been able to protect small

the two smallest brackets, operating profits have fallen

businesses from the global ups and downs. For

for three straight June quarters now.

businesses that procured their raw material from

It is also observed that the size of the firms seems to

China are under a crisis since Yuan has depreciated

also affect their ability to pay their loans at a time when

the Indian currency.

lending24rates much despite an | S E Phaven’t T E M B Ereally R 2 0 1fallen 5 accommodative monetary policy. Interest coverage

also started a new scheme to help small businesses understand credit ratings and the importance of maintaining good financial track record. Apart from these Jan Dhan Yojana and PAHAL have also been announced to help businesses source fund and generate employment.

It looks like the government has finally woke up to the pitiful condition of the small businesses in India.

But the million dollar question is, were they too late? the Indian currency. The volatile price of oil is also bound to affect the small businesses.

Even after a focus on Digital India campaign, nearly 90 per cent of SMEs in India have no access to the Internet, compared with only 22 per cent of SMEs in China and 5 per cent of SMEs in the US. This research was conducted by BCG. Internet tools can help Indian SMEs boost revenue by $56 billion.

By not exposing them to internet the government is also keeping them away from organised marketing. Any business can experience an exponential growth if it reaches the correct target audience.

Relief in pipeline With the announcement of MUDRA (Micro Units Development and Refinance Agency Bank) bank and other micro finance options, government is seemingly working towards the plight. National Small Industries Corporation Limited (NSIC) has been set up with the objective to boost small scale industries in India, NSIC helps import machines on easy hire purchase terms; procure and distribute imported raw materials; export products from small scale industries, etc. They have also started a new scheme to help small businesses understand 25 | S Ecredit P T E Mratings B E R 2 0and 1 5 the importance of maintaining good financial track record. Apart from

A GOOD FALL?

INDIA’S IRAN OIL IMPORT

-Prateek Pandey

A few months back, Prime Minister Narendra Modi

In a pact clinched on July 14 between Iran and the

made an announcement that India must aim to reduce

United States, Germany, France, Russia, China and

its dependence on imports and that its 77 percent of

Britain, Iran would limit its controversial nuclear

energy requirement should decline 10 percent by 2022,

deal in exchange for a removal of economic

and 50 per cent by 2030. But it was not clear whether

sanctions. This landmark nuclear deal between Iran

he was referring to import of crude oil alone or larger

and major world powers has enabled Tehran to

energy imports. PM Modi’s luck seems to be holding.

restore normal trade with many countries. But before

Having come to power at a time the global commodity

the deal was reached, and despite crippling

markets were subdued, his government has been able to

sanctions, India was among a handful of countries

reap the benefits of a lower import bill, which reflected

doing billions of dollars of trade with Iran. Iran was

sanguinely on the current account and on government

India's second-biggest oil supplier in the fiscal year

finances. And now India is poised to benefit from the

to March 31, 2007, but it slipped to seventh by last

nuclear deal between Iran and the six world powers,

fiscal year as sanctions bit. India, the world's fourth-

which could drive down the price of crude oil. India,

biggest oil consumer and Tehran's top client after

which had drastically cut oil imports from the

China, bought 21 percent less Iranian oil at 214,100

sanctions-hit Iran, may now look at sourcing more

bpd in the first eight months of this year, whereas

crude oil from the western Asian country if it offers a

April-August imports rose 21 percent to 266,000 bpd

‘better price’.

as compared for the same a year ago.

India’s oil imports from Iran plunged 27% to a five-

Current bilateral trade between India and Iran is

month low in August this year as compare the high base

about $14bn with the balance of trade in heavily in

last year. India shipped in about 198,800 barrels per day

Tehran's favor. Indian exports to Iran were around

(bpd) of Iran oil in August, down 7.7 percent from July,

$4.2bn last year. India primarily imports oil from

the data showed. The major reasons for this is

Iran, but has been hampered by restrictions placed by

considered to be a planned shutdown by two refineries

global powers. Due to the sanctions, India has been

i.e India's Essar Oil and Mangalore Refinery and

paying Iran in Indian rupees, with the money kept in

Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL). These would shut units at

an Indian account. In fact, the country is yet to

their refineries for about a month from mid-September,

release an estimated $6.5bn in pending oil payments

leading to lower purchases as compared to the same for

to Iran. However, Reserve bank of India (RBI) has

last month. Despite the drop, India is still expected to

come forward to assist and facilitate Indian refiners

raise imports as sanctions against the OPEC country

to pay this due. RBI also, agreed to help create

ease.

payment channels to clear the past dues when 26 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

Finance Secretary Rajiv Mehrishi-led a four-member delegation to Tehran last month to discuss

Finance Secretary Rajiv Maharishi-led a four-member delegation to Tehran last month to discuss modalities of clearing dues. The central bank, which had previously facilitated payment of oil import bill to Iran, agreed to explore options currently available. After the US and western powers in 2011 blocked payment channels in a bid to bring Iran to the negotiating table over its controversial nuclear program, RBI had facilitated oil payments to Iran via Turkey.

The Road Ahead Pricing of crude oil from Iran would be an important factor in a scenario where other OPEC sellers are offering price discounts to Asian buyers. In the near term, the Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s refiners should also benefit from discounts from Middle Eastern oil producers, as OPEC focuses on market share. Asian refineries, which are large consumers of West Asian oil, have enjoyed price discounts in recent months. Importing

Iran and six world powers last month sealed an accord

goods or sending shipments to Iran is currently

to curb the Islamic Republic's nuclear program in return

expensive because of high shipping charges India is

for ending sanctions. Lifting of sanctions would open

keen that Iran continues to give Indian refiners

up banking channels, and Tehran is likely to seek past

favorable terms like insurance and the removal of

oil dues. India is keen that the repayment of dues that

sanctions will make it easier for companies to get

have accumulated since February 2013, in a staggered

shipments as well as 90-day credit period, on oil it

manner so as to avoid a run on the rupee. RBI will detail

sells to India. Under US pressure, New Delhi has

out the banking channels as well as payment schedule

restricted the import of Iranian oil at 11 million

with its Iranian counterpart. Since February 2013,

tonnes in past two fiscals. But with easing of

Indian refiners like Essar Oil and Mangalore Refinery

sanctions, it will look to increase imports, provided

and Petrochemicals (MRPL) have been paying 45% of

Tehran continues to extend the fiscal terms.

payment due on the purchase of crude oil from Iran in rupees through UCO Bank, Kolkata. The remaining has been accumulating, pending finalization of a payment mechanism. They had last year paid nearly $3 billion in six instalments through a limited payment channel following the start of nuclear talks between the West and Iran. The outstanding has since climbed to over $6.5 billion. Essar Oil owes $3.34 billion, MRPL $2.49 billion and IOC $581 million to Iran. HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd (HMEL) owes $97 million and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd (HPCL) another $29 million.

Besides, about â&#x201A;š 17,000 crore was lying in Iranian account with UCO Bank.

27 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

STRAINED FRIENDSHIP

XI GETTING unPUTINified!

-Anupama Kumarswami

Choose your friends wisely-they will make or break

help Russia evade some of the Western sanction

you.

pains imposed as a result of the Ukraine crisis, by encouraging Chinese banks to lend billions to cash -J. Willard Marriott

Marriott’s saying holds so true for the president of People’s Democratic of China, Xi Jingping. With a two landmark energy deals signed last year with the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin for Russian natural gas to flow to China after watching the show of weapons, the whole world turned around to watch two globally robust friends making the best out of their friendship and in turn benefitting both of their countries. On 9th of May at Moscow, the Russian president presided the celebrations venerating the seventieth anniversary of the end of Second World War in Europe. While Russia’s western allies were absent, the Chinese President Xi had been a prominent company and in honor of his presence, the parade glaringly featured a detachment of Chinese troops.

There was more than just celebration behind Xi’s visit to Moscow and that reason was visible to the whole world. A day before the pompous gala, Xi had met Putin at Kremlin and inked a bout of agreements to amplify their economic and strategic relationship which included pacts to boost the use of their own currencies in bilateral trade and increase Russia’s natural gas exports to China. The Russian president had even mentioned that China would help finance a high speed railway between Moscow and Kazan, which is touted to be Russia’s much needed infrastructure upgrade. One of the pact that was signed was specifically crafted to help Russia evade some of the Western sanction pains 28 |as S E Pa T Eresult M B E Rof2 0the 1 5 Ukraine crisis, by imposed

encouraging Chinese banks to lend billions to cash skint

skin Russian companies. China was tagged as ‘strategic key partner’ after the meeting by Putin.

Xi’s first official overseas trip as a president in early 2013 was to Moscow. There has been a large amount of official dialogues getting exchanged which highlighted how close both the countries, Russia and China were becoming. Both the countries’ navies are engaging in joint exercises in both the east and west.

The Chinese companies are venturing into the world stage and they are investing significant amount in Russia. There has been a surge in trade with ninetyfive billion dollars’ worth of goods passing between the countries in 2014, six times more than that in 2003. This exchange is expected to increase further as China’s industrial machine consumes more than Russia’s energy resources. Right now, Russia’s economy has been pushed to the brink of crisis.

China is the only potential source of significant new funds, investment and consumers that is not aligned with his Western detractors. Xi also in turn is basking in the benefits of his friendship with Putin. In East Asia, Xi has aggressively asserted China’s territorial claims over disputed islands and borders of American allies like Japan and Philippines and former antagonists like Vietnam, sending them running to the United States for support. With China’s economy suffering its deepest slowdown in a quarter century, Xi is also on a hunt for new outlets for Chinese industry.

The partnership between Russia and China is not of

The partnership between Russia and China is not of

investment, trade and diplomatic support from

equals. Amongst them, China is by far stronger than

Beijing. The cracks began to appear in the highly

Russia. This imbalance has not gone unnoticed. But this

acclaimed partnership with the fall in crude oil

relationship can in no way go to China’s advantage.

markets. A $400 billion, 30 year deal for China to

Over the long term, it perpetuates Russia’s general

shop for herbal fuel from the fields in Japanese

downward trail as a world power. Vladimir Putin needs

Siberia has been signed with Russia. Its first supply

friends these days, and he found one in China. After the

is to be made between 2019 and 2021. However, the

Ukraine crisis, Putin took a break and visited Shanghai

cost that is going to be incurred would be by no

and met the Chinese president Xi Jingping. Xi even

means officially introduced and its unimaginable that

mentioned that closer Russia-China ties were an

with plunging power costs, the deal will have be

inevitable choice and was important for realizing

renegotiated. The Chinese are hunting for the fuel for

prosperity in both their countries. These warm

its depressed northeast area whereas the Russians

sentiments act as a relief for both the leaders as they are

have begun to organize for its supply. However a

now finding themselves isolated. With Russia’s grab of

proper contract was anticipated to be signed by Mr.

Crimea from Ukraine, the West had to slap sanctions on

Putin which fell wayward because of the current

the country while China’s aggressive stance on

situation. Additional complications that the deal is

territorial disputes has led to its neighbors alienating

facing is Russia’s lack of ability to pay for the

China. The disagreements have in both cases strained

pipelines, and the query of whether or not China

Russia’s and China’s ties with the U.S. Ultimately, this

wishes the Russian fuel badly to be sufficient to

has left Beijing and Moscow in dire need of the

finance their development. This deal has run into

diplomatic support on the world stage that they both can

pricing issues. The negotiations are facing many

offer each other. The economic necessity is also driving

difficulties because of the plunge in the cost of fuel

both the countries closer together than they were before.

and as a result of this, both the countries are looking

With Ukraine crisis hitting hard on Russia, boosting

forward to recalculate all the prices and take a look

economic ties with China has become more imperative.

at how to push for a value minimization. Nothing has

The European Union is Russia’s main trading partner

materialized as Russia had hoped for because of the

and the main source of investment and with relations

course of sanctions upon the country as well as the

strained, potential new cash from China is more

falling crude oil prices. Itis not just the power that is

important than ever. Meanwhile, China is in lookout for

getting affected by the slowdown. The quick rail

new sources of raw materials which Russia can easily

hyperlink that China had signed that it will construct

provide it with. Attempts by Washington and Brussels

to Beijing from Moscow is also under the shadows

to pressure Putin over the Ukraine crisis will be made

of uncertainty even though them being very

much more difficult as Moscow found sources of

professional at such development as it has been hard

investment, trade and diplomatic support from Beijing.

the cities had been scheduled to open ahead of 2018

29 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

Global Cup in Russia. However, the construction is yet to start and it’s not likely to begin till Russians

in difficult economic times. Time will prove whether for Beijing, Putin is more of a burden rather than the sweetness.

for Russia to pay for it. The first mile railing between the cities had been scheduled to open ahead of 2018 Global Cup in Russia. However, the construction is yet to start and it’s not likely to begin till Russians have cash to pay for it and the Chinese don’t seem to go about it without Russians spending even a dime.

The friendship between Putin and Xi has been capturing eyes of all nations. At international gatherings both the leaders strut together spreading a word of caution to the West. Their mutual admiration has been extra noticeable as a result of the lengthy and rocky relationship all through the chilly warfare between the countries when the nations have been ostensibly had a nuclear showdown in 1969 over a border warfare. The annexation of Crimea brought both the countries closer.

However, there are limits to their strategic pursuits.

China has been cautious of Russia’s strikes in Crimea and in particular at Ukraine, the place Beijing has business and army investments. It additionally worries that Crimea’s succession from Ukraine would possibly set a precedent for Chinese territories equivalent to Tibet or Xinjiang or for the arena to acknowledge Taiwan’s de facto independence. The U.S. believes that Russia is bound to become a drag on China, particularly in difficult economic times. Time will prove whether 30 | S EPutin P T E is M more B E R 2of 0 1a5burden rather than the for Beijing,

sweetness.

PRABHAT DAIRY IPO

WEATHERING THE STORM

-Rohit Tillu

Prabhat dairy is a Maharashtra based dairy products and

retail investors trading in the stock markets across

integrated Milk Company. Prabhat dairy produces

India. Prabhat dairy has come to the market with an

products

sweetened

Initial public offering (IPO). A company offers and

condensed milk, yoghurt, dairy whitener and ghee.

IPO when it wishes to offer its shares to the general

Institutional business constitutes to approximately 76%

public. An IPO implies that the shares will be traded

of its revenue. Major institutional clients of Prabhat

using the highest bidding methodology, but the

dairy are: Mondelez India Foods (Formerly known as

prices of the shares will start from their face value in

Cadbury), Britannia Industries and Mother Dairy. The

the books of accounts of the company. Prabhat dairy

company also offers its products to retail customers

approached the stock markets with an IPO valuing

under the names Prabhat, Milk Magic and Falvaa

₹560 crore. Out of this ₹560 crore, ₹300 crore will

such

as

pasteurized

milk,

As on June 30th, 2015 Prabhat dairy had 450 milk collection centers, 15 milk chilling plants and over 86 bulk milk coolers. The total milk production capacity of Prabhat dairy is 1.5 million litres per day. Its processing facilities are located in Shrirampur, Ahmednagar and Navi Mumbai.

be raised through fresh issue of shares, whose money will directly go to the capital of the company, and the rest ₹260 crore being an offer for sale which will dilute the stake of the promoters and big investors.

The company has also planned the use of this ₹560 crore. ₹300 crore will be used for pre-payment of loans of Prabhat dairy as debt is eating up the

The company is in a very good shape as the milk

operating margins. The rest ₹260 crore will be used

production of India has outpaced the milk production of

for setting up new facilities across India to venture

other milk producing nations. The production volumes

into new products such as Cheese, Paneer and

have achieved a CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth

Pasteurized butter.

Rate) of 4.3% from 2010-14 as is expected to rise even further. As regards Prabhat Dairy, its share of retail sale has increased from 15% in the year 2013 to 25% in the year 2014. The profits have also seen a subsequent growth as they grow from 22% to 36% in the years 2011-15. Debt occupies a large expense for Prabhat dairy as its borrowings have been increasing year over year. To pay off the borrowings and raise some ownership funds, Prabhat dairy has decided to go public with an issue of shares for both institutional as well as 31 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

The public issue opened on August 28, 2015 and closed on September 1, 2015.

The shares were

offered within a price band of ₹140-147. The investors were allowed to buy in lots of 104 and its multiples. On the first day itself, 15% of the initial public offering (IPO) was subscribed which itself is a big number. The IPO received bids for 54.45 lakh shares against ₹3 crore equity scrips. The issue has been managed by Edelweiss Financial services, Macquarie Capital and SBI capital. The shares were listed on both BSE and NSE.

listed on both BSE and NSE. Over the period of 5 days,

 Prabhat Dairy’s operating Margin: The

till September 1, 2015 the issue could only be

operating margin of Prabhat dairy, the earnings

subscribed to an extent of 42% as it could not generate

before interest, depreciation and taxes, has

adequate interest among the investors. Till the closing

hovered around 10-11% for the last three

date, the qualified institutional buyers, who buy atleast

financial years. A lower operating margin means

$10 million worth of capital, brought only 56% of the

lower net profits and lesser benefits to investors.

issue which was reserved for them. On the other hand,

And if benefits to the investors do not match their

the retail investors accounted for 23% of the portion

expectations, they do not prefer to buy the stock.

which was reserved for them to take up the issue. On

 Debt Component: Huge debt is eating up

the final day, the company lowered the price band from

Prabhat dairy’s profits. Last year, they paid an

₹140-147 to ₹115-125 along with offering a discount of

interest amounting to ₹41 crore on a net debt of

5% to the retail investors.

₹390 crore. Such high debt makes the company

In an attempt to abide by the minimum subscription clause of the Companies Law Bill 2013, the value of the issue had to cut so that it meets the statutory requirements. This was done as the company could raise only 76% of the capital till the closing date. The Companies Law Bill says that the issue has to be subscribed for 90% of the total issue. That can be fulfilled either by using Institutional investors, Underwriters and offering to the general public. Prabhat Dairy is said to be the second IPO to suffer such a fate in the current year as the markets take a dive regularly.

Let’s analyze why this could possibly have happened:

vulnerable to various risks and investors do not prefer a company with a high debt-equity ratio.  Return on Net worth: Return on net worth can be understood as the return earned on the money raised by the equity shareholders. The return on net worth looms around 6% which is not considered to be very profitable in the eyes of investors. Investors expect more return on net worth, as it is considered to be an indicator of company’s profitability.  Timing of benefits: Since major part of the issue will be used to pre-pay the debt and reduce the borrowing burden, it will take some time for the

 Poor market conditions: The markets are in bad

returns from increased capital expenditure to

shape due to various reasons. China stock market

come through as the company proposes to spend

crash being one of them. The repercussion of the

money on expansion in different phases.

Chinese crash can be seen throughout the stock markets of the world. There is a negative investor sentiment prevailing the market. The investors are scared as they do not want to lose their money to a further stock dive.  Prabhat Dairy’s operating Margin: The operating margin 32 | S of E P TPrabhat E M B E Rdairy, 2 0 1 5 the earnings before interest, depreciation and taxes, has hovered around

TUMBLING RUPEE

EXTENDING THE LOSSES!

-Eyamini N

Indian rupee in the end of August and early September erased most of its gains and weakened against the US dollar after local equity markets fell over 350 points. A sudden raise in the dollar demand from importers and state run banks to have sustained capital outflows after the hike in US interest rates was the major cause of domestic currency to hit a fresh two year low. It has been the worst month for rupee in the last two years.

There has been nearly 2.5% decline coming in for currency In India but still a better performer compared to other emerging markets or Asian currencies.

its supply in the market. In such a situation one has to pay more than before to get units of foreign

Facts On August 25th at 11.25am, the home currency was trading at 66.70, down 0.11% from its previous close of 66.65. The local unit opened at 66.50 per dollar and touched a high and a low of 66.38 and 66.73,

currency. This fall takes place in the market and on its own. Market determined exchange rate serves the purpose of aligning the domestic economy with the world economy was the price route.

respectively. Earlier in the morning trade, rupee gained

Main causes for depreciation of rupee at present:

around 0.4%. Most Asian currencies were trading ď&#x201A;ˇ mixed. South Korean won was up 0.3%, Taiwan dollar

FIIâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S withdrawal from Indian Market were the

0.4%, China Offshore spot 0.26%, Singapore dollar 0.25% and Philippines peso up 0.2%. However, Japanese yen was down 0.46%, China renminbi 0.11%, Indonesian rupiah 0.16% and Malaysian ringgit 0.05%.

Asian markets were trading down. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was down 1.5%, China's Shanghai Composite 6.2% and Japan's Nikkei Stock Average 2.4%.

highest ever for a month and took place amid the rupee hitting a record low. A weaker rupee further erodes the returns earned by the foreign investors in Indian markets. India is one of the largest oil consumer (4th after US, China & Japan) importing majorities of it from Middle East countries (members of OPEC). At present the bent crude oil price has goes down drastically that is 49 USD/bbl. Crude oil

Why is Indian rupee depreciating?

is transacted mainly in dollars, since there is huge

Depreciation refers to a fall in the value of the domestic

withdrawal from foreign investors from Indian

currency with respect to other currencies. Depreciation

Markets the demand for dollar has further

is caused by the demand for foreign currency exceeding

strengthened the Dollar value against rupee.

its supply in the market. In such a situation one has to 33 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

pay more than before to get units of foreign currency.



There are two baskets of currencies, which RBI always1. 2. Devaluation of the tightly held Chinese currency monitors to arrive at REER (Real Effective Exchange

has led to the biggest losses in two decades; China

Rate) of Indian rupee:

has been trying to engineer a shift from export-led

1.Basket of six currencies - U.S. dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, Great Britain Pound, Swizz Franc and Australian Dollar;

growth to an expansion based on consumer spending.

Another major reason for dollar strengthening was after the Chinese market crash (Black Monday) many Chinese investors begin to seek out relatively

2. Basket contains 36 currencies, the countries with

stable U.S. investments in stocks, and cash, and

which India has major external trade.

further strengthen an already-strong US dollar,

What RBI does is that keep an eye on inflation in these

thereby raising the prices on U.S. goods and

countries compared to India based on this the currency

diminishing export profits.

of the country in which inflation is high should

US Federal Reserve has announced hike in interest

depreciate against the currency of the country where the

prices in the upcoming month, which may further

inflation is lower. This is one of the major reasons for

attract more FDI strengthening dollar.

rupee depreciation. Because of the strengthening of dollar index which is above 100-mark at 100.30. Dollar



Effects

index shows the relative strength of the dollar against



Increase in Import Bill

other major currencies. After 2003, for the first time, it



Higher Inflation

has crossed the 100-mark.



Direct

Impact

on

Consumers

a. Gold has become more expensive and hit an

The current strain in rupee is majorly because of global

all-time highs first three quarters of 2013

issues as there us an apprehension as to where China is

b. Travel expenses rise as crude oil gets costlier

going.



1. Shanghai shares dived over 8 per cent to a five-month low. The stalling economy of china has caused a major threat to equity investors all around the world. Oil

Higher burden of Debt for Companies and Government



Capital Account deficit – Lower FII Investments and Lower FDI

prices have fallen after slipping below $40 a barrel for the first time in six years. Asian stocks crashed to 3year lows on Monday as the Chinese equities gathered pace causing a huge withdrawal by a lot of people on riskier assets a slump in Chinese equities gathered pace, hastening an exodus from riskier assets.

The weakness in the rupee drew the attention of Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan, who on Monday said that the central bank will not hesitate to use reserves to reduce the volatility in currency. The depreciation in the rupee hits foreign investors and diminishes their returns. Foreign investors have started selling domestic shares

34 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

aggressively. They sold cash shares worth Rs 1,000 crore, while on Friday they sold shares worth Rs

not working in favor of us. Thus RBI is taking measures to prevent further fall in rupee value against USD like decreasing the interest rates and encouraging the investors towards securities market which may strengthen the rupee value further. The best way to avoid the further deprecation at present could concentrating more on the domestic industry growth and encouraging exports.

aggressively. They sold cash shares worth Rs 1,000 crore, while on Friday they sold shares worth Rs 2,340 crore, which is the biggest selling since April 2015. The Indian rupee's slump has also added to the distress of Indian companies that are scrambling to repay foreigncurrency bonds and it is increasing the likelihood that foreign investors will be left out of pocket.

What if it weakens further?

A lot of people in the Indian Currency Market are not hedged

when

it

comes

to

the

currency.

At the beginning of the year bankers anticipated just a bang of 62 to 64 but itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s already reached 65 now, It is going out of trend already reaching 66 causing a lot of unhedged positions in the market leading to stock loss.

Two years earlier when the currency hit 68 the economics conditions in our country was bad, inflation existed foreign reserves were not on higher side but now the conditions are better that is current account deficit narrow down, the position seems better, the monsoon seems to be on the better side as well. Markets on one side are not expecting the domestic factors to impact as much as the international factors which are not working in favor of us. Thus RBI is taking measures to prevent against USD like 35 | further S E P T Efall M BinE rupee R 2 0 1value 5

THE IMF AND THE WORLD BANK

WILL G20 PUT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY ON A PEDESTAL?

-Jharna Soni

The Group of twenty (G20) comprising of finance

economy. But the G20 is unlikely to come up with

ministers and central bank governors from 20 major

any solid new measures designed to address the

economies will soon be meeting at Ankara, Turkey.

spillover from the instability in the world's second-

They will be discussing the risks associated with rising

largest economy, or to call directly on Beijing to

market volatility in china and how it effects the global

address structural issues such as rising bad debts.

economy. Another reason for them to convene in

Nor is it going to pressure the US Federal to delay its

Ankara is the possibility of a Fed rate hike. Due to the

rate hikes, despite concerns in some emerging

economic slowdown in china there is huge uncertainty

markets that such moves could cause capital

in the market, citing a mix of potential dangers such as

outflows and currency depreciation.

falling commodity prices and deprecating currencies.

Luxembourg Finance Minister Pierre Gramegna,

Ever since the Chinese stock market crash, investors

whose country holds the rotating presidency of the

around the globe are in a frenzy and are questioning the

European Union told Reuters that the world cannot

strength and credibility of the globe’s second largest

live all the time on easy money. The US Federal

economy.

Reserve intension to hike rates comes from various

Adding to their worries is the possibility of an interest

factors and the upcoming G20 comes at the perfect

rate hike by the Fed. The US Federal Reserve is coming

time. It will give the Fed an opportunity to consider

under pressure from emerging markets, not to raise

all the elements at stake.

rates too soon as the world is still recovering from the

Yuan in the currency basket?

Chinese turmoil. If there is an interest hike, there will be a rise in borrowing cost and investors will pull out from other markets and buy dollar assets. This would thereby weaken other currencies and create market turbulence as capital flees.

The issue of China’s desire to get Yuan included in the international monetary fund’s SDR (Special drawing right) basket of currencies could well be discussed at the upcoming G20 meet. The capital of china, Beijing is very keen for the figurative uplift it

Finance ministers and central bank governors from the

would get from the Yuan’s inclusion in the currency

group of twenty leading economies will now be looking

basket. Jens Weidmann, the chief of Bundesbank

for measures to soothe the global economy. Canadian

said he is willing to discuss on Yuan’s inclusion in

Prime minister, Joe Oliver said that their focus will now

the IMF's benchmark currency basket, and also said

be on how to deal with instability and how to get growth

that current financial instability in China should not

rate going. There will also be a joint declaration

pose an enduring danger to the global economic

welcoming measures to reduce uncertainty and stabilize

condition.

economy. But the G20 is unlikely to come up with any 36 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

solid new measures designed to address the spillover

It’s being said that the currency basket in proposition, considers the relative global

condition.

It’s being said that the currency basket in proposition, considers the relative global economic strength. But before that China must fulfil the conditions to get included in the IMF basket.



Enhance resilience



Strengthening recovery and lifting potentials



Buttressing sustainability

Collective action for inclusive and robust gr

The European Union

would welcome the inclusion of Yuan in the SDR basket, provided Beijing meets a series of legal, market and technical conditions.

One delegate from the G20 said it was possible that

Enhance resilience • Financial regulation • Int. Financial architecture • International tax • Anti curruption

Strengthening recovery and lifting potentials • Macro policy cooperation • Investement • Employment • Trade

Butressing sustainibility • Development • Energy • Climate change in finance

failure of the US Congress to approve an IMF quota reform would give China and other emerging markets more power to press on their issues. This could well

A group of financial stability experts introduced the

work in Beijing's favor on getting included in the

G20 members to a two- stage approach called Total

currency basket. China being the second largest

loss absorption capacity (TLAC), which could act as

economy in the world has a huge impact on global

Buffer for big banks. This idea has been taken up for

economic growth. If in some way china were benefited

examination. The buffer is a new layer of debt big

by inclusion of Yuan in the International Monetary

banks like Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank AG

Fund basket, then it would also benefit other major

must issue to write down in a crisis and strengthen

economies of the world. There would be a direct

their capital. The proposal would introduce a buffer

relationship between growth of china and growth of

of 16 percent of a bank's risk-weighted assets from

other countries. One of the major concerns of IMF

2019 and 20 percent from 2022. G20 has devised

members is to know whether Yuan would be a freely

comprehensive policy framework in a variety of

convertible reserve currency or not. It needs to examine

areas and put forward substantial commitments to

whether china’s intervention in the Yuan market would

achieve common objective of balanced, strong and

be feasible and quick to adopt. One option being floated

sustainable growth. 2015 will be a year where the

was the idea of giving China a more limited share of the

group of twenty leading economies will focus on

SDR basket at first until its convertibility and market

stabilizing the world economy and maintain growth

orientation improved.

rate. We can hopefully say that G20 would soothe

Would G20 help to pace up the economy?

the global economy and help the world rise above the Chinese financial turmoil and put the global

For inclusive and robust growth G20 will be taking on the following agenda for the year 2015:

37 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

economy up the pedestal.

MARKET DOMINATOR

TATA GROUPS AND TCS FORMING TWO-THIRD OF MARKET VALUE

-Swarupa Roy

The developing Indian economy is a witness to several

Tata Group has survived many challenges and

companies and conglomerates. And, with the passing

competitions along with economic turndown faced

time many more name are adding to this list. Currently

by the country. Such a long tenure of a firm only

the two biggest names that probably rule the Indian

portrays the capabilities of its leaders and the

market in terms of revenues and market valuations are

performance of the employees together. Currently

the TATA group and Reliance industries. The older of

more than 600,000 people work under the Tata

two, and the first and biggest conglomerate of India,

Groups at different entities and companies. And

TATA group is an acclaimed name with its business

when it comes to leadership, well, Jamshedji Tata,

spread over seven sectors. More global than its

JRD Tata and Ratan Tata are the perfect examples of

counterpart Reliance, it has set many benchmarks both

successful business leaders who have managed to

nationally and internationally.

expand their vision and company by taking it to new levels, something which is reflected even today in

A small private trading firm by Jamshedji Tata in 1868 today has turned into one of the leading global

the performance of this enterprise that kept on growing irrespective of time and changes.

enterprises which has its operations broaden across 100 countries and more. This global success is a part of what

In the seven major sectors as mentioned above, Tata

began as bringing innovations and changes in its own

groups have well established blooming business and

native country. Tata Group is credited with setting the

can be associated with its many successful brands

first steel plant, first hydro-electric plant and inorganic

like TATA Tea, Taj hotels, Vistara, Titan, Croma,

chemistry plant in India. Plus, over its 144 years of

Tanishq, TATA Nano, TATA Docomo, Voltas and

working, it has established itself as India’s largest

many more. Tata’s Indian Hotels Company has 108

private-sector

national

employer.

Chemicals,

engineering,

and

international

hotels

which

are

consumer products, information systems, steel, energy

considered amongst some of the finest and most

and services are its major areas which altogether

luxurious hotels. Even before SAIL (Steel Authority

comprises of 100 and more independent companies

of India) was established, Tata Steel made it

among which 31 are publicly listed. Today, this giant

presence felt with the first iron and steel plant in

enterprise firm has the Tata Sons as its owner and major

India, and is now positioned amongst world’s top 10

stake holder, with Cyrus Pallonji Mistry as the chair

steel manufacturers. Globally, Tata Chemicals have

person. Tata Sons are also the chief investors and

been recognized as the second largest soda ash

promoter of various Tata companies, and hold the right

producer, making it the largest producer of soda ash

of several Tata trademarks.

in India. In the automobile sector, Tata Motors have surfaced as India’s biggest automobile company and

38 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

have ventures with many popular brands which also include Jaguar Land Rover. With thermal, hydro,

have ventures with many popular brands which also

more on TCS to boost up its profitability and market

include Jaguar Land Rover. With thermal, hydro, solar

value in future. Although the contribution to the

and wind altogether combined, TATA power is quoted

overall revenue couldn’t match the desired level,

to be the country’s biggest integrated power enterprise.

Tata consultancy services has witnessed major

In the telecommunication sector, Tata Communications

financial success in recent years out growing many

has becoming a leading name in the country catering to

of its associates. The previous year, i.e. 2014-2015,

internet services, enterprise data and international long

it played a vital part of Tata’s total profit by 63

distance. Probably the biggest success of the Tata

percent.

Group can be said to its establishment of TCS (Tata Consultancy Services) which is a renowned name worldwide in IT sector and is India’s leading largest IT service provider. Well, the list of its subsidiaries is quite a big one with many more successful ventures and companies to be mentioned, but the prominent ones here form the major parts of its revenue and market

This large turnover from TCS has enabled the Tata group to invest in other of its companies and work on their development and progress. The finance of the Tata Group’s is mainly driven by the TCS and has managed to remain not much affected by the recent changes in economic downturn due to its operation in services and consulting. On the other hand some

value.

of the Tata’s companies are facing the brunt of

As of today the revenue of Tata Group including all its

economic downturns and financial slowdown. Tata

small and big subsidiaries stand at 665,185 crore. A

chemicals, Tata motors, Tata steel and Tata Power in

figure which is till long ways not only got its overall

spite of being renowned and major business holders

competitors but also in its respective sectors.

in their respective sectors, are not able to have the

Surprisingly, in spite of having number of companies

desired and wanted growth in profits due to being

and subsidiaries, two-third of its market value is formed

affected by the financial slowdowns.

by TCS only. TCS (Tata Consultancy Services)

Tata Group’s is currently banking on the cash inflow

established in 1968 is a public sector company having its operations over 46 countries and is listed at both NSE (National Stock Exchange) and BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange). Recently, all the companies of Tata groups together were valued at 7.41 lakh crore as of August 2015. In this entire valuation TCS alone stood at the mark of Rs 5 lakh crore. The next in the line to follow TCS were Titan Company and Tata Steel. Over the time TCS have proved to be very beneficial for the TATA Group. And, hence currently it is being relied more on TCS to boost up its profitability and market 39 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

value in future. Although the contribution to the overall

from TCS but in the longer run it needs to make sure that it other companies survive the changing markets and has an increasing market value compared to what they have today. TCS had certainly taking Tata group to new heights and with the rate with which it is currently progressing the signs in future are positive. But, at the same time its other subsidiaries needs to gear up which will only add to the success of this 144 year old global enterprise.

Name of the Company TCS Tata Motors Tata Steel Titan Company Tata Power Tata Motors (DVR) Tata Communications Tata Chemicals Tata Global Beverages Voltas Indian Hotels CMC Trent Rallis Tata Investment Corporation Tata Elxsi Tata Coffee Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra)

Rs Cr 497,977 102,279 23,338 28,964 16,458 12,483 11,293 9,883 7,813 8,451 7,146 5,979 3,904 4,097 2,988 6,005 1,698 1,273

MARKET CAPITALIZATION OF TATA COMPANIES

Market capitalisation of Tata Companies 9.72% 1.31% 3.85% 2.2% 3.1% TCS Tata Motors Tata Steel Tata Power Titan Company

13.6%

Tata Chemicals Others

66.21%

Tata Group's Website

40 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

$ billion 74.96 15.40 3.51 4.36 2.48 1.88 1.70 1.49 1.18 1.27 1.08 0.90 0.59 0.62 0.45 0.90 0.26 0.19

MINIMUM ALTERNATE TAX (MAT)

AN OBSECURE TAX FROM ONSET

-Chestha Kumar

MAR

Albert Einstein once said that the hardest thing in the

companies pay atleast some tax. That is because

world is to understand is income tax. The statement

some were paying little or no tax, as they were

rings true as tax laws are quite complicated and requires

enjoying tax exemptions, but at the same time were

a great deal of time and effort to understand them. Most

reporting profits and even paying handsome

of us get by with a basic understanding of tax matters.

dividends to the shareholders. Normally, a company

Buy help is not a hand.

is liable to pay tax on the income computed in

Direct tax in lay terms is a tax of income that you have to pay, it cannot be shifted to others. Some of its forms include income tax, wealth tax etc. Direct taxes are directly levied on individuals, corporations and organizations and collected by way of income tax returns to be filed each year. An indirect tax is collected by an intermediary (such as retail store) from the person who bears the ultimate economic burden of the tax (such as the customer). Indirect taxes include sales tax, service tax, value-added tax, commodity transaction tax

accordance with the provisions of the income- tax Act, but the profit and loss account of the company is prepared as per the provisions of the companies Act. However these companies didn't pay any tax to the government as they reported either nil or negative income under provisions of the Income- tax Act. These companies were showing book profits and declaring dividends to their shareholders but were not paying any tax. These companies are popularly known as 'zero-tax' companies.

and securities transaction tax among others. One such

According to brokerages CLSA, the list of MAT

indirect tax is the minimum alternate tax (MAT). The

companies in India includes several large companies

taxation dispute between the Indian government and

such as Shree cement, Dabur, and Godrej consumer,

foreign investors seems never-ending. It came to the

power utilities such as NTPC, Power grid

forge again this month when the foreign investors (FIs)

corporation, and JSW energy, and infra developers

were asked to pay a minimum alternative tax (MAT) for

such as adani ports. The core business of these

capital gains made in Indian stock markets. The

companies enjoys certain tax exemptions. But these

estimates of the tax demand vary between Rs. 40,000

companies do report accounting profits. And so, the

crore, as quoted by Jayant Sinha. Whatever the number

government levies MAT.

is, the tax issue has been a sore point with the foreign

How is MAT calculated?

investors.

MAT is calculated at 18.5 per cent on the book profit What is MAT?

(the profit shown in the profit and loss account) or at

MAT was first introduced in 1996 to make some

the usual corporate rates and whichever is higher is

companies pay atleast some tax. That is because some

payable as tax. Payers of MAT are eligible for tax

were paying little or no tax, as they were enjoying tax 41 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5 exemptions, but at the same time were reporting profits

credit, which can be carried forward for 10 years and set off against tax payable under normal provisions.

payable as tax. Payers of MAT are eligible for tax

"tax terrorism," a new set of tax demands by the

credit, which can be carried forward for 10 years and

government is causing a furor among investors and

set off against tax payable under normal provisions.

tax experts.

The Indian Income-Tax Act allows a large number of

Lawyers and accountants say that the Indian tax

exemptions from total income. Besides exemptions,

department has approached dozens of investors,

there are several deductions permitted from the gross

asking them to pay the so-called minimum alternate

total income. Further, depreciation allowable under the

tax, which these investors haven't had to pay before.

income-tax act, is not the same as required under the companies act. The latter provides a lower rate viz-a viz the IT act which computes a higher rate of depreciation.

The

result

of

such

exemptions,

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said that the government could recover 400 billion rupees ($ 6.4 billion) from investors through this levy, and has indicated that he has no plans to change for that.

deductions, and other incentives under the Income-tax act in the form of liberal rates of depreciation is the

What The Ruckus Is All About?

emergence of zero-tax companies, which in spite of

Is this a new tax?

having high book profit are able to reduce their taxable income to nil. In order to bring such companies under the I-T net, section 115JA was introduced from assessment year 1997-98. MAT is a way of making companies pay minimum amount of tax. It is applicable to all companies except those engaged in infrastructure and power sectors. Income arising from free trade zones, charitable activities, investments by venture capital companies is also excluded from the purview of MAT. However, foreign companies with income sources in India are liable under MAT. For example, book profit before depreciation of a company is Rs. 7 Lakh. After claiming depreciation and other exemptions, gross taxable income comes to Rs. 4 lakh. The income tax applicable Rs. 1.2 lakh at a rate of 30%. However, MAT would be Rs. 1.29 lakh (Rs. 7 lakh at 18.5%).

No, MAT is a local tax that India has required companies to pay since the late 1980's. If a company's income tax is less than 18.5%, then it has to pay the MAT, which comes to around 20%, including additional duties. However, historically foreign investors have not paid this tax it was widely believed that only Indian companies were subject to it. In 2010, a tax body ruled that MAT was not applicable to companies that don't have a permanent establishment in India.

Foreign investors are subject to other taxes, such as capital gains tax for profit on asset sales.

What has changed?

In 2010, a Mauritius-based investment firm Castleton Investment Ltd. approached an Indian tax body to get the confirmation that it was not required

Even as India tries to convince investors it won't pursue

to pay MAT on a transaction it wanted to execute.

"tax terrorism," a new set of tax demands by the

Contrary to precedent, in 2012 this body rules that

42 | S is E Pcausing T E M B Ea Rfuror 2 0 1among 5 government investors and tax

even foreign companies are subject to MAT.

experts.

Contrary to precedent, in 2012 this body rules that even

investors and so may not have the money to pay the

foreign companies are subject to MAT.

tax, says Dinesh Kanabar chief executive of tax

Why is this old case coming up now?

consultants Dhruva Advisors.

In the budget announced late February, Mr. Jaitley said

"Re-opening prior eyes' cases is creating avoidable

that MAT would not be applicable to foreign companies

uncertainty and denting investor sentiments," said

from April 1, 2015 onwards. He was silent on what

Sameer Gupta, tax leader at consulting firm Ernst &

happens to the transactions that were undertaken in the

Young LLP.

past.

A head of a major American private equity fund said

India's income tax officials have interpreted Mr.

that if the firm gets slapped with such a major tax

Jaitley's budget announcement combined with the

bill, it couldn't afford to pay it now that money has

castle ton case, to mean that foreign investors should

been returned to the investors. Though legally, the

have paid MAT for previous years. In recent weeks, tax

fund believes it could win such a fight, it could mean

officials have started issuing notices to foreign

years of litigation, he said. "We would be out here,"

investors, asking them to do so. Lawyers say the

he said.

department can ask for back taxes for transactions undertaken within past 7 years.

So, all will have to pay this tax?

There is a lot of confusion about all this. It's not clear, for instance, whether only portfolio investors will have to pay MAT, or also foreign companies who have invested in Indian assets, said Rajesh Simhan, head of international tax practice at Nishith Desai Associates, a Mumbai based law firm. He said it was not clear if this tax is applicable to gains on debt investments.

What do investors say?

Investors are worried about whether they too will be slapped with such a notice, and if so, where do they get the money from to pay the tax?

Many of the foreign funds that the Indian government now wants to tax have already distributed profits to investors and so may not have the money to pay the tax, says Dinesh of tax consultants 43 | S Kanabar E P T E M Bchief E R 2executive 015 Dhruva Advisors.

REPORT CARD

TWO YEARS OF RAGHURAM RAJAN

-Abhinav Banerjee

“In war, luck is half of everything.”

-Napoleon Bonaparte During first two years in his office, Raghuram Rajan, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor, has had luck firmly on his side as he fought to tame the inflation dragon. The time in which Rajan took office, on Sept. 04, 2013, India was in an economic crisis, with the rupee having depreciated sharply, the current account deficit having widened to an alarming extent, and inflationary pressures still high. As the RBI had been attempting to smooth the rupee’s sharp depreciation during the first half of 2013, India’s foreign exchange reserves had also been significantly eroded. It has been the country’s good fortune to have such a capable economist with the high international credentials taking the tiller at the RBI at a time of economic crisis. With Rajan’s background as a former International Monetary Fund chief economist and a professor of finance at the University of Chicago, his appointment as the RBI governor was commemorated by Indian financial markets “Ten minutes ago, I handed over charge to Mr. Raghuram Rajan,” Dr. Subbarao the then RBI chief said after stepping out of the Mint Road. “The country could not have asked for a more capable person to lead the RBI in these most difficult times.”

Rajan has had remarkable success in administering the monetary policies and revamping India’s foreign exchange reserves. Looking back at the two years of Dr. Raghuram Rajan-

2013 Aug 6 Aug 6

2014 Sep 27

Raghuram Rajan appointed next RBI Governor; At 50, one of the youngest to become RBI Governor, Dr. Rajan, who is credited to have correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis, took over the mantle of the central bank at a time when the economy was coping with a multi-pronged crisis of high consumer price inflation, industrial slowdown, a free fall of the rupee and a widening current account deficit (CAD).

RBI Governor warns of global market 'crash' ; Rajan said global markets are at risk of a "crash" should investors start bailing out of risky assets created by the loose monetary policies of developed economies.compared the then current global markets to the 1930s - a period marked by great depression.

2015 Jan 13 44 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

Raghuram Rajan wins 'Governor of the year' award; but says job far from done.

RBI looking into improving quality of education loans, says Governor; Feb 27

March 4

March 5

Rajan illustrated the various problems and feedback loops associated with student loans and acknowledged that despite high levels of defaulting, the RBI was looking into improving the quality of education loans.

RBI Governor surprises with post-budget rate cut; lowers repo rates by 25 bps to to 7.5 pct; Five days after the presentation of the Union Budget 2015, the Rajan-led RBI unexpectedly cut the policy Repo rate by 25 basis points as â&#x20AC;&#x153;disinflation is evolving along the path set out by the RBI at a faster pace than earlier envisagedâ&#x20AC;?

RBI eases norms for home loans for up to Rs 10 lakh; norms for home loans were reduced by allowing banks to include stamp duty and registration charges to the cost of a unit.

Retail Inflation Target Band Could Tighten in 5-10 Years: RBI;

March 7

Governer Rajan said: target band for retail inflation could tighten much further in the future as the apex bank becomes more comfortable with it.

Ignoring Raghuram Rajan's 2005 prediction was a big mistake: IMF chief;

March 18

IMF chief Christine Lagarde said not listening to his prediction of 2008 credit crisis was a big mistake of the multilateral funding agency.

Raghuram Rajan says infra push should not override financial stability; Apr 2

Rajan said:'the country needed to find new sources of funding for infrastructure so that debt levels remained "moderate".'

RBI rate cuts no relief for India Inc; Apr 4

45 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

Interest rates paid by manufacturers ranges from 9.5-14.75 pct;

May 26

June 2

June 26

Rajan urges emerging markets to overhaul global economic rules; Rajan said. “We have been too quiet in the emerging markets, saying what the developed markets do is best for the global economy.”

RBI Plans IT Wing as Online Financial Crimes Rise; Rajan said:we've to also worry about cyber supervision and cyber security.

State participation necessary to improve govt finances, says RBI Governer.

Growth is slow in picking up even as macro economic parameters have improved, while stressing the role of state governments in improving fiscal performance, said Rajan.

RBI lowers repo rate by 25 bps, Rajan unsure of further cuts;

Apr 12

The RBI cut interest rates by 25 bps for the third time this year, citing weakness in growth, even as it indicated limited room for future rate cuts because of upside risks to inflation.

World economy may be slipping into 1930s depression problems: Rajan;

May 15

"We need rules of the game in order to effect a better solution. I think it is time to start debating what should the global rules of the game be on what is allowed in terms of central bank action,"

Raghuram Govind Rajan who took charge as the 23rd governor of Reserve Bank of India started his journey by making several big-bang announcements to renovate the Indian Financial Sector landscape completely.

He has completed two years and has met with some success, but many of his projects are yet to yield desired results. Let’s see how far the journey of former IMF Chief Economist at the Mint Road goes, and what more he’s able to accomplish in the remaining one year of his tenure.

46 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

GUEST REPORT

ASHOK LEYLAND

-Arihant Jain (IBS HYDERABAD) large scale through roadways as well as railways.

Industry: Automobiles Segment: Commercial Vehicles CMP: â&#x201A;š 88 Market Cap: â&#x201A;š 25072 cr EPS (TTM): 1.9 P/E: 46.37 Industry P/E: 78.84 P/BV: 6.14 Dividend Yield: 0.51 %

Downside risk include poor monsoon, hike in interest rate by US Fed leading to capital outflow which may further put pressure on Rupee, bottleneck infrastructure and choking of legislative reforms.

Industry Overview The automobile industry contributes nearly 7% of

Economy Overview

the GDP and employs about 19 million people both The Indian economy grew at 7.3% (base year 2011-12) in the financial year 2014-15 as against 6.9 % in 201314. With this, the automobile sector posted a growth of 8.68% in 2014-15(YoY) and is expected to post double

directly and indirectly. The industry is broadly divided into four segments: Passenger vehicles, Commercial Vehicles, Three-wheelers and Twowheelers.

digit growth this fiscal year.

Our main concern is over commercial vehicle As the first quarter results of this fiscal are out, GDP growth has been seen at 7% as compared to 6.7% a year ago for the same quarter, but the

auto

sales

numbers show stagnant growth in the first quarter by rising only 1.24% (YoY). Overall improved business sentiments, lower crude prices and policy measures helped economy to build momentum. Most economists believe that India is at an inflexion point and is set for

industry where India is the fifth largest manufacturer in the world. The CV industry is positive correlated to the economy and especially to the industrial sector. Industrial sector gained momentum with manufacturing and construction growing by 6.8% and 4.5% against 5.3% and 2.5% respectively, however mining declined to 2.3% from 5.4% in 1415.

sustained growth in the coming years. Lower crude prices leading to fuel prices reduction and interest rates

The commercial vehicle industry is further divided

are key factors in driving the automobile industry. With

into 4 other components:- M&HCV Trucks

CPI (Consumer price index) falling to 3.66% in August

(Medium and heavy commercial vehicle), M&HCV

and WPI (Wholesale price index) at low of -4.95%

buses, LCV Trucks (light commercial vehicle), LCV

(negative shows deflation) are supportive factors for

Buses. The domestic and exports sales performance

interest rate cuts in next monetary policy. Year 2015-16

by the segment was:

is expected to see growth picking up in mining sector especially iron ore and coal which are transported in large scale through roadways as well as railways.

47 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

Domestic sales 2014-15

Exports 2014-15

Sales

Change (over previous Sales (units)

(units)

year)

195918

21%

18672

11.7%

M&HCV Buses

36837

-4.8%

11980

68.6%

LCV Trucks

337390

-13.4%

51066

0.2%

LCV Buses

44816

4.7%

4064

80.3%

Total

614961

-2.8%

85782

11.3%

Segment

M&HCV

Change (over previous year)

Trucks

This data shows that growth in the domestic sales have declined but the exports have risen significantly to 11.3% especially in M&HCV Trucks and LCV Buses segment which shows that there is more demand from outside countries over 2013-14 FY which shows revival in the segment and is likely to continue in future. Moreover, favourable policies such as 100% FDI policy and with initiatives like ‘Make in India’ can bring in more investments from abroad where big players like GM, ISUZU and Volvo are looking for opportunities in commercial vehicle segment. Also GST will play a lead role for the industry as excise duty is a major tax in the segment which leads to higher cost.

Given the expected growth in industrial, construction and mining sectors, M&HCV sales are likely to keep up the momentum in the financial year 2015-16. For the year 2015-16, Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) has projected growth rates of 13%-15% for M&HCV’s and 3%-5% for LCV’s. The industry saw sales of 52198 units in Aug’15 in the CV segment registering a growth of 7.58% from previous year month. IIP expanded by 4.2% in July which shows positive sign for the industry as manufacturing and mining also gained momentum.

Company Overview Ashok Leyland was founded in 1948 based in Chennai now owned by Hinduja Group, it is the 2nd largest commercial vehicle manufacturer in the country and 4th largest bus manufacturer and 16th largest truck manufacturer globally. The overview of the sales numbers are as follows:

48 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

Sales volume

2012-13 (units)

2013-14 (units)

2014-15 (units)

Vehicles

114611

89337

104902

Engines

21757

17441

14023

Spare parts & others

181458

121257

139169

The company has wide range of product portfolio especially in the bus segment, which is broadly classified into 5 categories: city bus, semi-urban bus, inter-city bus, special bus and school & staff bus. The company has sold around 13151 M&HCV Buses locally in 2014-15 with the market share of around 36% in the same segment.

In M&HCV Truck segment the company is well placed from peers as it sold 53291 units domestically in the previous year with the market share of 28% only behind TATA Motors, this showed 28% growth in M&CV volumes and demonstrated that the company has ability to exploit upturns in the M&CV space. Export volumes grew to 33.6% to around 11218 units (including defense vehicle) supported by its leadership in Middle East and Sri-Lanka (in bus segment) and also grew in Africa. So there is more potential for the Ashok Leyland to increase its presence in foreign market.

2% Segment Contribution to Revenue 3% 9%

86% Commercial Vehicles Engine & Gensets Spare Parts Other Operating Income

49 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

Contribution to CV Revenue

12%

88%

M&HCV

LCV

In LCV segment the company is partnered with Nissan in 2012 and the products in its portfolio in both buses and mini

venture has added new

trucks (pick-ups) like Dost Strong and MiTR

buses and adding more touch points to increase its network in domestic market where Mahindra and

Tata are leaders. It sold 27242 units in LCV segment with market share of 10% which is

less than its peers as its LCV models offer superior technology and command premiums in some of the products.

Power solution segments offers engines in electric power generation, Agricultural Harvester combines, Industrial compressors, Earth moving & construction equipment, Marine & other nonautomotive applications where it sold only 14000 units in 2014-15 showing declines over the past few years. The demand contraction may be due to unseasonal monsoon, de-growth in industrial segment and improved power availability or the company wants to focus more on core competency in commercial vehicle space. Spare parts, company named LEY parts which include bearings, axle, leaf springs and other parts grew around 15% in volume over 2013-14 on better demand and improved operations.

Sales this financial year so far for the company: Aug ’15

Aug ’14

Change (%)

Apr-Aug ’15

Apr-Aug ’14

Change (%)

8903

5832

53

39191

26490

48

LCV Sales

2641

2501

6

11561

9644

20

Total Sales

11544

8333

39

50752

36134

40

M&HCV Sales

50 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

Peer Comparison Name

M.Cap

Sales

PAT

OPM

P/E

ROCE

Assets

Ashok Leyland

25072

13562.8

334.8

7.56%

46.3

10.98%

7710

Tata Motors

112141

36294.7

-4738.95

-3.4%

-

-5.61%

34943.36

Eicher Motors

49492

3031.2

558.9

24.2%

74.61

64.8%

1233.66

Sml Isuzu

1671

1105.55

39.94

5.92%

38.25

16.77%

325.2

Valuation Through DCF valuation the present value of the company comes out to be Rs 101 per share. So as per the closing market price on 18th Sept 15 i.e Rs. 88 the stock tends to be undervalued.

By relative valuation (P/E) with peers places the company at Rs. 120 per share that means the stock is undervalued but the problem in this valuation is with the differences in peers such as Tata Motors which has presence in passenger vehicle segment also so the valuation may tend to be ridiculous.

70cr toward capital expenditure in up-gradation of assets and product development also there has been growth of 31% in exports volume, maintaining its leadership in the foreign market.

The sales in first five months of this fiscal year has been impeccable as compared to previous year due to increase in industrial production. Hence, looking at all the scenarios with such strong fundamentals and management, I recommend to buy this stock at this level. Investors looking for good long term investment can bet on this stock as the company distribute approximately 40% of the earnings as

Analyst Recommendation With 17.4% increase in overall volumes and improvement in overall performance in 2014-15 has been a watershed year for Ashok Leyland. Having 28% market share in M&HCV segment the company is all set to boost sales by enhancing their portfolio and strategic investments in JVâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s. The company incurred 70cr toward capital expenditure in up-gradation of assets and product development also there has been 51 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

growth of 31% in exports volume, maintaining its leadership in the foreign market.

dividends.

VRIDDHI’s RESEARCH CORNER

COMPANY IN FOCUS: TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES

Industry: IT Market Cap: 498,897.81 Rupee Crore CMP: 2545.5 Rupee BV: 258.51 Rupee Dividend Yield: 3.10%

India is the world's largest sourcing destination for the information technology (IT) industry, accounting for approximately 52 per cent of the US$ 124-130 billion market. The industry employs about 10 million

Indians and

significantly PE: 25.01

-Vinit Shah

to

the

continues social

to

contribute

and

economic

transformation in the country.

Industry PE: 21.60 Face Value: 1.00 Rupee

The IT industry has not only transformed India's image on the global platform, but has also fueled economic growth by energizing the higher education

KEY PERFORMING INDICATORS (201415)

sector especially in engineering and computer

REVENUE: 94648.4 crores

science. India's cost competitiveness in providing IT

EBITDA: 27,109.62 crores PBT: 24481.7 crores PAT: 19852.2 crores EPS: 111.87

Industry Overview

services, which is approximately 3-4 times cheaper than the US, continues to be its unique selling proposition (USP) in the global sourcing market.

Internet Based Usage and GDP Contribution India’s internet economy is expected to touch Rs 10 trillion (US$ 161.26 billion) by 2018, accounting for

India's IT industry can be divided into five main

5 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product

components, viz. Software Products, IT services,

(GDP), according to a report by the Boston

Engineering and R&D services, ITES/BPO (IT-enabled

Consulting Group (BCG) and Internet and Mobile

services/Business Process Outsourcing) and Hardware.

Association of India (IAMAI). In December 2014,

Export revenues, primarily on project based IT Services

India’s internet user base reached 300 million, the

continue to drive growth with IT Services. This

third largest in the world, while the number of social

accounts for 54.2% of total revenues followed by BPO

media users and smartphones grew to 100 million.

and Engineering services at 19.5%, Software Products at 15.3% and hardware at 11%. Multi-year annuity based outsourcing agreements continue to increase at a steady rate. In terms of total export and domestic revenues, Application Development and Maintenance (ADM) still continue to be the bread and butter for 52 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

Indian IT companies; however traditional services have

Public cloud services revenue in India is expected to reach US$ 838 million in 2015, growing by 33 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y), as per a report by Gartner Inc. In yet another Gartner report, the public cloud market alone in the country was estimated to treble to US$ 1.9 billion by 2018 from US$ 638 million in 2014. The increased internet penetration and rise of

market alone in the country was estimated to treble to US$ 1.9 billion by 2018 from US$ 638 million in 2014.

The increased internet penetration and rise of e-

TCSâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Presence They are having 142 offices in 42 countries as well as 105 delivery centers in 20 countries.

commerce are the main reasons for continued growth of the data centre co-location and hosting market in India.

Rational For Investment

According to Gartner, IT service and Industry

As majority of the Software industry work

contributing 8.1% of National GDP.

outsourced, rupee devaluating helps to Software Industry as a whole for India. According to

Company Overview

NASSCOM, IT Industry is to maintain 13-15% The company is a part of Tata Group, one of India's most respected business conglomerates and most respected brands. They are headquartered in Mumbai.

The company shares are listed on the National Stock Exchange and Bombay Stock Exchange of India. Tata Consultancy Services Ltd was incorporated in the year 1968. They offer IT infrastructure services, business process

outsourcing

services,

engineering

growth rate for FY 15. Apart from it, software major government project like Passport Seva Project (PSP) and website of Indian Railway online bookingIRCTC are maintained by the company. Company expecting offer for the solutions and services required for the Smart Cities Project initiated by India Government as well.

and

industrial services, global consulting and asset

E-commerce boom

leveraged solutions. Their segments include banking,

India, the fourth largest base for young businesses in

financial services and insurance; manufacturing; retail

the world and home to 3,000 tech start-ups, is set to

and distribution, and telecom.

increase its base to 11,500 tech start-ups by 2020, as

In the year 1981, the company set up India's first IT R&D division, the Tata Research Design and

per a report by Nasscom and Zinnov Management Consulting Pvt Ltd.

Development Centre at Pune. In the year 1985, they set

The IT sector in India grew at a compound annual

up their first client-dedicated offshore development

growth rate (CAGR) of 25 per cent over 2000-2013,

center for Compaq (then Tandem). In the year 1999,

which is 3-4 times higher than the global IT spend,

they got SEI-CMM Level 5 certification for their

and is estimated to expand at a CAGR of 9.5 per cent

Qwest, HP, SEEPZ & Sholinganallur centers. Also, in

to US$ 300 billion by 2020.

the year 20000, they got SEI-CMM Level 5 certification for their Calcutta, Bangalore, Lucknow and Hyderabad, GEDC, Ambattur and Ahmedabad centers. In the year 2001, the company completed the acquisition of public sector unit, CMC Ltd. After 2001 company has tremendously developed 53 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

onshore & outsourcing business across the world,

Market Capitalization

Company having highest market capitalization more than 500000 crores. Revenue increase by 15.7% and Net Margin increase by 21.0% compare to previous year. Market capitalization reached at 500249 Crores, which is 19.7% up than previous financial year. Current ratio is 2.46 and DebtEquity ratio is 0.01 (almost debt free company), which is quite good financials for the company.

Last 5-year Performance Particulars

Mar 2015 Mar 2014 Mar 2013 Mar 2012

Mar 2011

ROA (%)

32.07

36.94

33.30

36.52

31.30

ROE (%)

43.05

48.29

44.69

49.62

43.89

ROCE (%)

54.82

61.29

54.54

60.04

50.16

Asset Turnover(x)

1.23

1.29

1.26

1.27

1.21

Sales/Fixed Asset(x)

5.77

6.31

5.88

5.72

5.37

Working Capital/Sales(x)

3.07

2.87

3.50

4.95

6.63

54 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

Apart from it, here are few performance ratios of last 5 years

Particulars

Mar 2015 Mar 2014 Mar 2013

Mar 2012

Mar 2011

ROA (%)

32.07

36.94

33.30

36.52

31.30

ROE (%)

43.05

48.29

44.69

49.62

43.89

ROCE (%)

54.82

61.29

54.54

60.04

50.16

Asset Turnover(x)

1.23

1.29

1.26

1.27

1.21

Sales/Fixed Asset(x)

5.77

6.31

5.88

5.72

5.37

Working Capital/Sales(x)

3.07

2.87

3.50

4.95

6.63

Share Price Movement (5 Years)

55 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5

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