Page 1

SATYA NADELLA’S FIRST BIG MOVE AT MICROSOFT

BY PRIYANKA MALIK

THE IBS TIMES August 2014, Issue No. 169, Volume No. I

TCS IS THE BEHEMOTH OF INDIA INC. BY MANJARI

BRINGING SHADOW BANKS OUT OF SHADOWS BY SWATI GUPTA

CASHING ON CASH ON DELIVERY ! IS FLIPKART’S VALUATION JUSTIFIED? BY SACHI KHESKANI

FinStreet, IBS Hyderabad


ISSUE NO.

169

AUGUST 2014

CONTENTS FEATURES 6

Solvency II: Way Forward for Insurance Sector

11

Fiscal Consolidation: A Necessity

16

Need for BRICS Bank

22

Taming the Fiscal Beast (Article of the Issue)

28

Fiscal Deficit and it’s Impact on Indian Economy

36

Bringing Shadow Banks out of Shadows

40

Changing Face of Manufacturing and Agricultural

31

Sector 49

Populism Breaking Our Economy REGULARS 14

36

19

2

Letter from the Editor

3

India Vetoes WTO

9

Market Watch

14

Road to Disinvestment

19

Industry Overview: Gems & Jewelry

25

TCS: The New Superstar of India Inc.

31

Cover Story: Flipkart

34

Saving Aadhar

38

Microsoft: Creating a Leaner Organization

43

Impact of Change in FDI Caps

45

Fiscal Consolidation in India

47

The Stock Market Boom

52

Update on Airline Industry

55

Impact of Israel- Gaza Conflict

57

Company in Focus: Allahabad Bank


INTELLIGENCE BEYOND SUCCESS

“Food security is a humanitarian concern, especially in these times of uncertainty and volatility, and the issue of food security is critical to a vast swathe of humanity and cannot be sacrificed to mercantilist considerations.”- Nirmala Sitharaman, Commerce and Industry Minister of India

Letter from the Editor

THE IBS TIMES Faculty Mentor

Dr. Ravi Kumar Jain On the Cover: Sachin & Binny Bansal (Co-Founders, Flipkart) Cover Picture Source: Caravan Magazine

Team IBS Times Chaahat Khattar (Editor-in-Chief) Akshay Gupta Atharva Solanki

Manisha Mohapatra Nikhil Acharya Nishtha Behl Shivam Tandon Vanika Sharma Alisha Singh Apoorva Anusha Avik Chakrabarty Kaushik Chandell

Koisetty Sai Aishwarya Manjari Navjoth Sahu Priyanka Malik Rahul Mishra Ripu Daman Tandon Sachi Kheskani

Dear Readers,

Greetings from Team FinStreet ! We are very grateful to you for your keen interest and association with The IBS Times. We witnessed tremendous growth in our readership in past couple of months and we have clocked over two thousand five hundred impressions for our magazine since we have given a 360 degree makeover to it. We thank you for your support which has enthralled and motivated us to write and express more. This issue indeed is very special in terms of both the articles and the authors writing the same. We have formally inducted and trained the new recruits and the regulars in this edition of The IBS Times are covered by them only. Also, with due consideration to your suggestions, we invited articles from other business schools of the country and we were very humbled to receive large number of entries for the magazine. Though we have not included all of them for this edition, we will try our best to have them in our upcoming issue. Our team has put light on several recent commercial, economic and international developments including the recent fund raising by Flipkart which is also our cover story for this issue, the announcement of job cuts by Microsoft, the road to disinvestment, rise of TCS, India‘s tough say in WTO, the saving grace for UIDAI, the impact of Israel- Gaza conflict and the impact of recent changes in FDI allowances to name a few. The Article of the Issue- Taming the Fiscal Beast covers an out of the box analysis and opinion on managing fiscal crisis. The article very well charts out the strategies lawmakers can adopt to control the fiscal deficit of the country. We have included couple of more articles on fiscal management as each one of them expresses varied and interesting opinions by different authors. The issue also has analysis on the recent idea of having BRICS bank and curbing the activities of shadow banks. The magazine also covers industry analysis on the Gems and Jewelry Sector. In the market watch segment, the magazine puts light on the performance of various financial markets in the past two weeks. The magazine includes an exhaustive report from investment point of view on Allahabad Bank by Team Vriddhi Research.

Sameena Usman Srishti Karmakar

Hope you have an enriching experience reading The IBS Times. Your feedbacks and opinions will help us make it better !

Vikas Sharma

Chaahat Khattar

" As long as you enjoy investing, you'll be willing to do the homework and stay in the game. That's why I try to make the show so entertaining, because if you aren't interested, you'll either miss the opportunity to make money in the market or not pay enough attention and end up losing your shirt..”- Jim Cramer


India’s Stand

India Vetoes WTO

- Avik Chakrabarty, IBS Hyderabad

India blocked an agreement on new global customs

restrictions. The ability of countries to deliver goods

rules on 24th of july at a meeting of World Trade

and services in time and at low costs is a key

Organisation (WTO) in Geneva where 160 member

determinant of their participation in the Global

countries

angering other members.

Economy. Easier movement of goods and services

Member‘s nations including Australia, Canada,

clearly drives export competitiveness and fosters

Colombia,

and

diffusion of better technologies through imports and

Thailand are saying they are ―dismayed‖ at the failure

foreign direct investment. Increasing awareness of

to agree at the meeting. Delhi‘s move could be costly,

those trade-related transactions costs has called for

economically and politically.

multilateral rule making and regional or plurilateral

WTO member countries were supposed to rubber

coordination

stamp a deal on ―trade facilitation agreement‖ (TFA)

facilitation is generally referred to as a reduction of

that was agreed in Bali in December 2013. Estimates

transaction

say the agreement could add $ 1 trillion to the world

administrative burdens on cross-border movement of

economy and create 21 million jobs worldwide by

goods and services between sellers and buyers.

cutting down red tapes.

Negotiating an Agreement on Trade Facilitation

India is unlikely to yield to pressure of developed

Despite the potential benefit of trade facilitation,

nations on pushing the WTO‘s Bali agreement

evolution of trade facilitation is not witnessed in every

without addressing New Delhi‘s concern on food

country, or cooperation in terms of trade facilitation

security issues at the Geneva meeting on 31 July.

has not been fully developed in the international

India said it would not sign the agreement until it gets

arena.

participated Mexico,

Norway,

Switzerland

what it wants in a separate area linked to its system of subsidising and stockpiling crops.

regarding costs

trade

associated

facilitation. with

Trade

unnecessary

On 1 August 2004 General council of WTO decided by explicit consensus to commence negotiations on

India is the most prevalent among a group of

trade facilitation. The Trade Negotiations Committee

developing nations angry at rich countries for failing

established

to address their concerns about a deal on trade

Facilitation and appointed Ambassador Muhamad

facilitation.

Noor of Malaysia as its Chairperson. This agreement

What is TRADE FACILITIATION?

was finally reached at the Bali Ministerial Conference

the

in December 2013. Nowadays trade costs associated with transportation charges, documentation requirements and delay in clearance at a national border are as important as traditional border such as tariffs and quantitative 3|AUGUST 2014

Negotiating

Group

on

Trade


Several trade diplomats said they were mystified by India‘s stance, since it has not made any specific demands, making it impossible for the rest of the WTO to resolve the problem. According to some India might want to bring forward the 2017 target date for agreeing permanent rules on food stockpiling, or it might try to postpone the July 31 deadline for adopting trade facilitation. But the EU said it would not renegotiate existing timelines. INDIA vs Other Member Nations

Many trade experts think that if global trade negotiations lose momentum again, many WTO

TFA protocol may not meet the deadline of 31 July 2014 set at the Bali Ministerial Conference in December 2013. This is because India's stand is crucial without its approval WTO could not adopt

members, including the European Union and the United States, will effectively give up and focus all their efforts on more ambitious trade reforms that they are already negotiating bilaterally and in small groups.

protocol on TFA. India stockpiles food for its poor, putting it at risk of India will not move forward on TFA in absence of a concrete framework to find a permanent solution on public food stockpile which is necessary for the food

breaking current WTO rules. In Bali, WTO members agreed to give India a pass until 2017, while negotiating a permanent solution.

security programme. The developed countries will have to give a concrete framework to find a permanent solution for India‘s public stock holding issue and without that New Delhi will not adopt the TFA. Several countries issued statements saying that a failure to agree would be a massive blow to the WTO, which is trying to emerge from a decade of failed negotiations on further liberalising global trade. The European Union gave a warning, saying: "Without adoption of the Trade Facilitation Protocol by July 31 a great opportunity to mobilise trade as an instrument for growth and development would be lost, and the credibility of the WTO, which has during the financial crisis proven its value, would be damaged." 4|AUGUST 2014

The final protocol for the TFA, which is dear to the developed world including the US and the WTO members, concluded Australia, but no single meeting has happened on India‘s food security related issues. Sharp differences have emerged between rich economies like the US and Australia and emerging nations, including India and South Africa, on implementation of the Bali package. South Africa is said to be backing India, and other African member of the WTO have raised concerns over whether the financial aid they were promised to help revamp customs procedures will materialize. But broadly, India could be isolated.


The Food Security Act- The Problem India's

Food

Security

Act,

implies

On the other hand India is getting prepared. In his that

the

government will provide very cheap food to the most vulnerable part of the population at extremely low prices. Apart from providing subsidies to the consumers, through the public distribution system, it

budget speech the finance minister Arun Jaitley said 16 new port projects are proposed to be awarded this year with a focus on port connectivity. ―11,635 crore will be allocated for the development of outer harbor project.

also provides subsidies to the producers of food

The finance minister also proposed to implement an

grains. So it buys food grains from farmers at a

―Indian customs single window project‖ to facilitate

minimum support price, and subsidises inputs like

trade. ―Under this, importers and exporters would

electricity and fertiliser.

lodge their clearance documents at a single point only.

Whereas the current WTO norms limit the value of food subsidies at 10 percent of the total value of food grain production. However, the support is calculated at the prices that are over two-decade old and not at

Required permissions, if any, from other regulatory agencies would be obtained online without the trader having to approach these agencies, reducing time and cost.

current prices. India is asking for change in the base

India as such doesn‘t have any problem with it so

year (1986) for calculating the food subsidies. The US

domestically it is getting prepared accordingly. But at

gives about $120 billion as agriculture subsidy as

the WTO platform it is opposing because it feels once

compared to India‘s $12 billion.

it signs off the TFA, there will be no leverage left to

WTO argues that if the developing countries continue to give prices to farmers which are higher than the

push for permanent solution of food security and public stockholding.

market prices, it might harm the poor farmers in other

Food and Trade policy analyst Devindra Sharma said

parts of the world.

that TFA will not help India‘s cause unless the non

The second problem which India feels needs to addressed is that even For providing subsidised food, India will have to open up its own stockpiling to international monitoring. It will not be able to add protein heavy grains like say, lentils, if it wants to, due to riders in the peace clause. Is India really against TFA? Critics have even hinted that India is blocking TFA because it is not prepared to take on the requirements of TFA, with a relatively weak trade infrastructure.

5|AUGUST 2014

trade barriers faced by India in developed countries are removed. At a time when developed countries are closing their borders for free movement of skilled manpower from developing countries, we are opening our borders for free movements of their goods.


Opinion

Solvency II: Way Forward for Insurance Sector

- Ajay Kumar Tawani, TAPMI

Risk is an inherent part of every one‘s life and

a non-zero failure regime. Though solvency II is EU

insurance is the backbone of any country‘s risk

Regulatory Initiative, it will have both direct and

management system. Insurance business in itself

indirect impact on the insurance industry across the

involves lot many risks and to keep the insurer solvent

globe.

(the ability to meet its obligations), the reforms and

It‘s a world leading process helping insurers to

regulations come in place.

improve the focus on risks facing their organization

As the saying goes on, ―The only thing that is

and managing them. It offers the insurers to improve

constant is change‖ and so is the case with these

their risk adjusted performance and operational

reforms. As markets have changed, sophisticated

efficiency which is a good news for the policy

models of risk management have been developed and

holders, insurers and the economy on the whole.

solvency II reforms are in the same line directed by European commission. The objectives of solvency II reforms are as follows:

The framework follows the Basel accord approach with three pillar structure, which brings this industry more in line with the regulation applied in the banking

 Development of Risk Based approach and identification of key risks to the company.

sector. It sets out its own new set of capital requirements, valuation techniques and governance

 Assessment of interactions of the above risks and

and reporting standards which are far better than

create a model on how these risks can be managed

solvency I directives in managing the risk of an

by the insurance companies.

organization.

 Regulations related to the disclosure of the information by the insurers so that the regulators are enabled to assess the strength of the insurer‘s technical provisions in detail. valuation of the insurers. of insurers/ re insurers. advanced

and will encourage to develop an internal model of requirement (SCR) for major insurers and at the same time smaller insurers remain to calculate the SCR

 Harmonize the approach to calculate the solvency of

better reflection of an insurers individual risk profile risk assessment to set out the solvency capital

 Introduction of more consistent approach in asset

 Incorporation

The changes in the capital requirements provides a

based on the standard formula. The new approach requires a uniform approach to evaluate the technical

risk

reduction

provisions.

techniques into the supervision regime. Briefly the regime intends to set out: WHAT IS SOLVENCY II? 1. Alignment of economic and regulatory capital Solvency II directive reforms are the new regulatory framework for European insurance industry which adopts a dynamic risk based approach and implements 6|AUGUST 2014

giving appropriate weight to diversification benefits between companies and subsidiaries.


2. Freedom to choose own risk profile and match it

good risk management and policy holder protection. It

with appropriate level of capital.

aims to promote capital adequacy, enabling greater

3. An early warning system to warn for solvency by active capital management.

transparent process in decision making and better supervisory review process. It is to be achieved through holistic approach of implementation that

4. Encouraging an improvement in the identification and mitigation of risks by better aligning risk and capital management. The first two columns depict the difference between

addresses better risk measurement and management, greater

process

controls

and

enterprise

wise

governance and capital structure. PILLAR 1:

solvency I and solvency II wherein surplus capital in both the cases would be same but the difference will be from technical provisions. The Third column depicts the economic model of capital known as Internal Economic Capital Requirement (IECR) which a firm might use to operate the business. IECR differs from firm to firm depending on the internal model of risk assessment and the level of exposure of risk.

This pillar talks about the quantitative requirements. It ensures that the firms are adequately capitalized to operate their business under different situations. Firms can use a standard formula or internal model approach to quantify the capital requirements. Valuation through internal model will be based on stringent standards and supervisory approval to calculate its regulatory capital requirements. All valuations should be done prudently and in a market consistent manner.

THREE PILLAR MODEL: The European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) defines three pillars as way of grouping solvency II requirements in the name of

7|AUGUST 2014


PILLAR 2: This

pillar

BENEFITS TO INSURERS: imposes

high

standards

of

risk

Though transitioning from the older regime to the

management and governance in an organization. It

newer regime will be a costly affair, in the longer run

gives greater responsibility and power to supervisors

this regime offers several benefits to the insurers.

in self-assessing the risks and challenging the firm on

1. Better pricing the products.

risk management issues. It consists Own Risk and Solvency Assessment (ORSA) which enables own risk

self-assessment,

capital

requirements

and

of the firms.

PILLAR 3: This pillar aims to provide greater transparency for supervisors and public. There is a public solvency and financial condition report and private annual report to supervisors which increases the level of disclosures required by the firms. Any current returns will be replaced by reports containing core information that firms will have to make to the regulator on quarterly and annual basis. This ensures that the firm‘s entire disclosed and is made up-to-date. 8|AUGUST 2014

stability and 3. Last but not the least maintaining the profitability

adequacy of capital resources.

financial information and position is

2. Better managing the risks and maintaining financial

publicly


Update

Market Watch The

stock

market

- Koisetty Sai Aishwarya, IBS Hyderabad

last

two

weeks

witnessed

due to the increase in the demand for loans with the

fluctuations due to various geo political sentiments

rise of the new government in India, also Hero

prevalent at present. The Gaza war had already been

Motocorp is seen rising, which announces its

showing its effects when the Ukraine crisis and the

expansion plans of starting up plants and owning

absolute recent Argentina deficit started to mount up.

subsidiaries in Colombia. Few of the companies that

It‘s time for the European and American companies

did not perform well would have to be GAIL India

with exposure towards Russia to get cautious as the

and NTPC. The reason for NTPC‘s underperformance

markets look dicey out there. The major question here

could be attributed to the impact of CERC tightening

to ponder upon is whether the slight dip in the markets

its operative norms that reduced the company‘s

is here to remain or not? As there are no signs of

quarterly earnings. The downward trend of the

overvaluation of the markets currently we could say

markets could be a correction factor and hence we can

that the downfall is not here to stay or to conjure upon

say that it would be short lived. Also the NDTV Profit

us an economic crisis.

speculation states that the trading in august would be

Revisiting the last two weeks of the stock markets the trend shows a downfall in the previous week with sensex closing at 25480.84 and nifty at 7602.60 points. The dip created could have been an effect of Thursday being the expiry day of the July derivatives as the markets succumbed to a lot of selling, leading a fall in NIFTY by 70 points and the FII not taking keen interests in the markets. Our markets are largely driven by sentiments and due to the excess of selling by the FII over purchases as they sold $63.4 million worth of equities for the first time in the last ten sessions; a slight downfall has been noted.

a range bound trading between 7800 points to 7500 points. Monetary policy: The statement given by Raghuram Rajan on Tuesday indicates very minor changes in the monetary policies. The marginal standing facility rate has been reduced by 25 points from 9.0% to 8.75% and the repo rate has been increased from 7.5% to 7.75%. on the other hand

the

CRR(cash

reserve

ratio)

and

the

SLR(statutory liquidity ratio) are likely to remain unchanged presently being 4% and 22.5%. the strengthening of the exports and rising performances

Individually assessing the companies, Maruti Suzuki

in the service sector with better performances in the

has performed quite well due to the increase in net

agricultural industry, Rajan expects the growth in the

sales of about 11% as the cuts in the indirect taxes

GDP from 4.14 in quarter 1 to 5% for the whole year.

notably on the excise duty of cars, have proven to be largely beneficial for them. The other companies with an upward trend would include ICICI Bank which also had a 17% rise in its quarterly net profits mainly

9|AUGUST 2014

Good days for the US as the dollar are getting stronger lately. The GDP of US for the quarter being 4 % has definitely shown its effects on the dollar price. The unexpected growth in GDP of the US in


spite of

underutilization of the labor market has

helped the economy get right back on track. A fall in the prices of Brent crude oil has been noticed in the last couple of days . The recent hike in the production of oil in the US has decreased the imports in US. Also with the dollar value increase and all the imports being done in dollar, there is a fall in the Brent crude oil prices as the demand from the other countries would be affected. Moreover, the trade sanction has ordered a halt on the export of oil to Russia considering the present situation which also might contribute to the explanation of the fall in price. The global threat for the market in the coming days could be the debt crisis of Argentina and mainly the Ukraine crisis. The unemployment in Argentina has reached the US markets and also the US hedge fund managers. Argentina‘s bonds are down and US investors have found a good reason to liquidate their stocks. Looking at the Ukraine crisis, hike in the price of oil and grain have been seen and people prefer to invest in safe havens like gold which has led to a wide spread of selling shares. So it‘s all about investing smartly. As Warren Buffett says ―risk comes from not knowing what you are doing‖ Net Price-Volume Movement

10 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4


Opinion

Fiscal Consolidation: A Necessity

- Saptarshi Sarkar, SIBM Pune

People all over the country are encouragingly talking

means, thereby bringing down the fiscal deficit and

about fiscal consolidation and reducing fiscal deficits

public debt. It includes, among other things, efforts to

to ensure economic growth and financial stability. But

raise revenues and bring down expenditures like

this raises the basic question: What is fiscal

subsidies, unnecessary bills and reforms which never

consolidation and how does it affect financial stability

reach the intended recipient. Fiscal consolidation

or economic growth?

efforts, thereby reducing the fiscal deficit are looked

In this article I will try to explain this concept through

at positively by investors and sovereign rating agencies. This is because it gives them an idea about

a subtle example:

the financial strength and condition of a country‘s Say my family consists of 5 members and I am the sole bread-earner of my family. My annual income is around INR 5lac. So I have to design a household

economy. Even if the fiscal deficit is low, a country may not be economically viable because of its poor efforts at fiscal consolidation.

budget where my entire family has to live within its means of INR 5lac. The moment my annual spending exceeds this limit; I will invariably run into losses and subsequently debts. So in order to minimize my annual debts/losses, I have to consolidate my annual budget and have to put in a concerted effort to live within my means. The moment I reduce my spending, I will invariably have more money to save, which I can then invest into other ventures or financial instruments or simply put it away in the savings account of a bank. This will eventually lead to a better so-called ―economic growth‖ of my personal finances and will probably act as a shield from any unforeseen catastrophes in the future. The same is true in case of a Union

Budget.

consolidation

is

a

Fiscal conscious

policy effort needed by the Government to live within its 11 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

But fiscal consolidation has its demerits too. Detractors note that should the process be so stringent that it eliminates the potential for responding to current market situations in order to trigger growth, opportunities are lost that cannot be recovered at a later date. Both supporters and critics provide instances in which the methods of fiscal consolidation have proven effective and beneficial as well as detrimental in both the short-term and long-term. Against this backdrop, many governments have been


making substantial fiscal adjustments through a

challenge. He has already understood that treading the

combination of spending cuts and tax hikes to reduce

Fiscal Consolidation path will probably be a safer bet

their ratios of debt-to-GDP.

for him. So his maiden Budget focused firmly on

For

years,

India

has

ranked

low

on

fiscal

consolidation. But, post 2003-04, the government has made conscious efforts to bring down its fiscal deficit thereby passing the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act. This has enabled the government

to

pursue

the

reforms

aimed

at

committing to a reduced level of fiscal deficit. Its efforts went off well in the initial years but it stumbled somewhat post the global financial crisis of 2008-09. As a result, through its fiscal stimulus package, it had to announce several fiscal concessions and introduce certain reforms to balance the supplyside demand. This resulted in a further worsening of

financial stability and retained the ambitious target of 4.1 per cent of the GDP for the fiscal deficit in FY15. Arun Jaitley made it clear that the Budget would revive economic growth to 7-8 per cent over the next three years along with lower inflation, lesser fiscal deficit and a not-so-glaringly-huge current account deficit. The Fiscal Consolidation while reducing the debt-toGDP ratio of the country reduces the potential spends on infrastructure and puts more pressure on delivering on taxes. Reducing the infrastructure spend can have serious ramifications for the NDA Government. It was a Government which put economic growth as one of its key agendas in its Election Campaign. Economic

the country‘s finances.

growth and stability are needed to revive investor Today, the fiscal deficit of India stands at around

sentiment and put India on a high growth path.

4.47% of GDP (April-June fiscal deficit is $49.2 billion). The BJP led NDA won the 2014 Lok Sabha elections on basically two planks: reviving growth and lowering inflation. To achieve its growth objective, the Government has to spend millions on infrastructure

and

manufacturing.

Developing

infrastructure, reducing subsidies and reforming its policies and tax revenue systems in India will irreversibly lead to an increase in its growth rate as well as lower the inflation rates. But this is easier said than done. Fiscal consolidation will be tough for the new Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley. Stagnant revenue and a sticky expenditure with a likely tight monetary policy by the Reserve Bank will make fiscal consolidation tough to achieve. So the new FM has to buckle up to the 12 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

Fiscal Consolidation is also critical for lowering India‘s debt-to-GDP ratio. The internal debt of the Government stands around 48% of GDP in the last two years. The declining trend of the debt ratio post


fiscal 2009 has been driven more by high inflation

―If our projections were to come to fruition, India‘s

rather than lower fiscal deficit or faster GDP growth.

economy would pass the $5 trillion mark (by 2025), a

In the coming days, a strong commitment to fiscal

feat that has been achieved by only the US and China

consolidation will be the key to lowering India‘s debt-

thus far and would make India the fifth largest

to-GDP ratio.

economy

Fiscal Consolidation will not be easy for this government. There is very little scope for reductions in expenditure since there are very little guidelines on how to reduce subsidies. Therefore the only way to reduce fiscal deficit is to generate revenues as a share of GDP. To do so, the Government must implement structural tax reforms like GST, improve tax compliance and widen the tax coverage. Through fiscal consolidation and financial stability will India finally get back on the track of a high economic growth. The early signs have been quite ominous. India‘s manufacturing activity has rebounded to a 17-month high in July in a response to a surge in production backed by new orders, proving another piece of evidence that business and consumer sentiment has picked up and the economy was coming out of the slump of the last two years. So the days of economic gloom and policy paralysis and high fiscal deficit seem to be a thing of the past. As we march forward towards the Modi regime, the mood across all sections of the society is of optimism. We are looking forward to a revised fiscal deficit target of 3.6% and 3% for FY16 and FY17 respectively and a growth of 7% in the coming years. The report released by Investment Bank Morgan Stanley probably sums up our sentiments:

13 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

in

the

world.

Accordingly,

India‘s

consumption and investment opportunities would rise to $3.6 trillion and $1.9 trillion, respectively.‖ It said in a report titled The Next India: From a cyclical downturn to a structural upturn.


Planning

Road to Disinvestment

- Kaushik Chandell, IBS Hyderabad

Before talking about the Disinvestment plans for India

to raise Rs.484.3 billion from selling its stakes in

we need to know what is Disinvestment? What are its

Public Sector Units (PSUs) and the second part, rest

objective and importance?

150 billion from selling the stake in non-gevernment

Conversion of money or cash into securities, bonds, debentures or any other claims on money is known as 'Investment'. Disinvestment is just the polar-opposite

companies. In the year 2013-14 UPA government planned to raise Rs. 540 billion but managed to mobilise only Rs. 190.3 billion. Current year targets three times the amount raised in 2013-14

of Investment. Now, suppose you own a car which needs to go to the workshop twice or thrice a month. In this case the car is more of a liability than asset. Suddenly some mishap takes place and you're in dire need of cash.

The Disinvestment target set by NDA for the current year is arduous and it is very pivotal to meet the fiscal deficit target as it is expected to contribute 4.6 percent to the total non debt receipts in 2014-15.

Wouldn‘t it be a good option to dispose off the car for

PSUs to garner disinvestment includes some major

your liquid asset requirement rather than taking a loan

players such as SAIL, ONGC, Coal India, NHPC,

on which you will be required to pay interest. Assume

Hindustan Zinc, PFC, REC and Balco.

the government in your place and the car as an inefficient

government

enterprise/undertaking.

Government takes steps like disinvestment in order to improve the financial conditions of the country. It not only reduces the financial burden but improves the public finances as well as introduces competition and market discipline. Small percentage of stake sale as

Governments expects offloading of 30 percent of the total disinvestment from the major PSUs for which the contribution of ONGC can be very much upto be 5 percent or Rs. 170 Billion which'll be the highest amount to be raised just by a single stake sale. Previous record was of the Coal India IPO, which had fetched 150 billion in the year 2011.

low as 1 percent can earn the government billions. Further, Government of India is targeting around 10 Modi government came into existence with a promise of low and stable tax regime as well as the finance minister Mr. Arun Jaitley himself promised to end the tax terrorism. And to perform upto the expectations Mr. Jaitley has set the highest annual target since the beginning of disinvestment plan. Target set by the former UPA government in the interim budget used to be Rs. 519.3 billion and the new target set by the current government is Rs. 584.3 billion which the government plans to raise in two parts. First part is 14 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

percent stake sale which can garner them an hefty amount of Rs. 230 billion. In 2013-14, UPA planned to fetch Rs. 200 billion from the very company but met with the refusal of the Coal India employees because of which the government was not able to dilute its stake in the company. Another ace in the card can be SAIL with 5 percent stake, it can offer a sum total of Rs. 18 billion, as per the current share price. Another trump for the government can be


NHPC from which the government is seeking a

stakes in a PSU bank to 51 percent. Currently,

contribution of 10 percent.

government holds more than 75 percent stake in 22

Vedanta even planned to buy government's 29.54 percent stake in Hindustan Zinc and 49 percent stake

non bank PSU firms and above 51 percent in PSU banks.

in Balco last year. However, government plans to sell

With the market being optimistic, Sensex reaching its

its stake through a market auction without showing

peak , even in the best of its time government was

any inclination towards a specific organisation.

able to raise Rs. 388 billion in the year 2007-08.

Intotal there are 11 names in the list out of which NHPC, SAIL and MOIL will be meeting Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) in order to discuss minimum public shareholding norm after this round of stake sales.

Moreover analysis shows that the government has failed 17 out of 24 times in achieving the disinvestment target falling short on average of about 40 percent. Previous governments failed to sell stakes because of poor market conditions as well as obstructions

Even the stock market is high on disinvestment terms of Government of India. BSE Sensex has gained nearly 7 percent after the victory of Narendra Modi where as BSE PSU index ha made a jump of nearly 35 percent. The Sensex crossed the the score 26000 and reached its peak of 26123.55 before closing at 26100.08 on 7th July, 2014. On the very day, Nifty also hit an all time high of 7,787 points. Further analysis on disinvestment policy followed by government shows that the target could have been set higher and as well as can be achieved given that the market are at a high. The current target of Rs. 584.3 billion which has been set above the previous governments target of 519.3 billion is still lower than the market buzz of Rs. 600 billion. This would not only provide a support SEBI's push for a minimum 25 percent public-holding in PSU but would also justify the RBI's report on decreasing the share of government stake in PSU bank to help increase in profitability. Even the ICRA (Indian Credit Rating Agency) suggested that with the upswinging of stocks, this can be the high time to bring down the 15 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

laid

by

the

other

parties

and

organisations. But after the results of 16th Lok Sabha Elections, market condition has improved. Now only time will tell whether the government succeeds in implementing the disinvestment strategies effectively and improve the economic structure that exists/ to overcome the fiscal deficit.


Opinion

The Need for BRICS Bank

- Kartik Jariwala, K J Somaiya Institute of Management Studies and Research

900 million without safe drinking water. There is a need of over $1 trillion per year over and above the existing funds deployed. By 2020 the need for funds will double and this will be

mostly

funded

by

domestic

governments but they will not be able to fund it completely without affecting their country‘s macroeconomic figures. It is well known that infrastructure development leads to increase in growth rate. Thus it becomes necessary Just after the FIFA World cup another major

for the world to come forward and provide

development was taking place in the Brazilian city of

infrastructure finance to low income and developing

Fortaleza. A Meeting of BRICS head of nation was

countries.

held and the meeting concluded with the decision to

In 1940‘s world found a way to do this by setting up

set up the BRICS development bank christened as New Development Bank (NDB).The NDB will be headquartered in Shanghai, China and it s first head will be an Indian. The first three principle directors will be from Russia, India and Brazil. The bank will have capital of $100 Billion with initial capital of $50 Billion contributed equally by each of the 5 nations. There will also be a $100 Billion Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA).

multilateral institutions like World Bank and IMF. But these were mostly meant for catering to infrastructure needs of the war torn Europe. The principal

beneficiary of

these

Bretton

Woods

institutions has been USA as dollar become the currency of exchange.. These institutions did help develop Europe but they were able to do it because Europe

conformed

to

western

ideology

of

liberalization and minimal government intervention.

The question arises why a need for another

Hence, the policy of these institutions has been

multilateral institution for financing infrastructure

designed to propagate the western ideology.

need. There are a number of reasons. The most apparent reason is the scarcity of finance for development of infrastructure in the under developed world. It is estimated that there are 1.4 billion people without electricity,2.6 billion without sanitation and 16 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

Today these institutions are seen as instruments of promoting western foreign policy. There are 3 main pillars on which these institutions have been formed macroeconomic discipline, opening up of trade and FDI and competitive markets. Here the assumptions is


that liberalization of trade and trusting the markets as

structure of these multilateral institutions. The west

being self correcting and self sustaining supported by

and especially USA is reluctant to let go of its voting

stable macro factors would ensure growth. This was a

rights in these institutions. The institutions must

flawed assumption. This is where these institutions fail and a need for a New Development Bank arises. The Bretton Woods institutions are based on what has been termed as Washington consensus which was meant to denote the ten rules based on which these institutions functioned. The Washington consensus has failed over the last 2 decades as is evident from the high growth success stories of countries like India and China. The IMF lays down constraints on emerging and developing countries which are pro cyclical and hence these countries suffer during global

reflect the current world economic order. The USA for the sake of having the veto is not willing to reduce its voting rights from 16.8 % thought the requirement

crisis.

is of reduction by on 0.5 %. The proposal with the US It has also been observed that the rich poor divide in developing nations has increased in spite of the claim that these policies aim at reducing poverty. In fact in the countries which have followed the framework laid out by these institutions find themselves incapable of handling

situations

which

require

government

congress is still pending since 2012. This reduction will still give US the veto rights as it can affect the supermajority required for passing critical policy within the IMF. It is also noteworthy that 10 countries out of a total of 188 control 52 % of voting rights in the IMF.

intervention as the policy maintains that the government should move away from market activities like subsidies which may create distortions in the economy. It is true that economic indicators do improve but these are compared inter country. For example per capita figures do improve but intra country

poverty

figures

do

not

reflect

this

The developing countries like BRICS which account for 25% of the world GDP have voting rights which is less than 15%.The table 1 shows the voting right of each BRIC country. The Gil S Beltran in research paper for the The G24 Research program advocates the restructuring of the Bretton Woods Institution.

improvement. The New Development bank needs to

It is because of these reasons that CAF Corporacion

ensure that it does not propagate the Bretton Woods

Andina

culture where the policies are framed assuming one

Corporation) by Latin American Nations was set up.

size fits all.

But this institution is a regional bank and has capital

Another reason for setting up a new development bank is the long delayed reforms in the governance 17 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

de

Fomento

(Andean

Development

limited to cater to Latin American countries. It has pain in capital of $ 3.6 billion. The financial times


work together with international, regional and national

financial institutions

to

help

develop

infrastructure in an environmentally sustainable way which would ultimately result in economic and social development of the under developed and developing countries.

reported that World Bank provides less finding to these countries than CAF. This is mainly because of less restrictive regulations of CAF and its regional knowledge. The CAF approved loans worth $9.3 billion in 2012. Similarly the African Development bank which caters to African countries has a paid in capital of less than $5 billion dollars. The African region especially the sub-sahara

region

has

the

highest

need

of

infrastructure financing in the world. Thus the regional banks do not have sufficient resources to meet the needs.The New Development Bank must partner with regional and national development banks as they are the best placed to help narrow the information asymmetry. The New Development Bank under the first presidency of India must ensure that the Durban Agreement does not become another Bretton Woods agreement and that it is not to compete here but to 18 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4


Industry Overview

Gems and Jewellery

- Alisha Singh, IBS Hyderabad

Gems and jewellery have been a prominent part of

The domestic gems and jewels market in the financial

many cultures and customs across the globe. Since

year 2012-13 stood at 40 billion USD and is expected

time immemorial people have been using gems and

to rise by 13% per annum to reach an expected target

jewellery in the form of gifts, investment purpose,

of 45 to 50 billion USD by the year 2015. The

ornaments and so forth. Moreover, it also symbolises

demand for gold ornaments is always on the rise

wealth in the society at any given point of time.

which constitutes more than 80% of the domestic

Gems and jewels have been an indispensable part of the Indian civilisation since its inception. However,

jewellery consumption along with other precious metals.

the industry gathered momentum during the post-

STRENGTHS of the Sector:

independence era and ever since there has been no

 Advent of organised retail is boosting up the gems

looking back. In 1966-67, the export turnover of gems

and jewel industry in India:

and jewels industry in India was 220 million rupees constituting a mere 3% of the total merchandise exports which has now transformed to 15820.30 million rupees as of June 2014 making it a crucial foreign exchange earner of our country and also the backbone of our economy. This particular industry has caught the attention of the masses due to its talented craftsmen, its superior practices in cutting and polishing fine diamonds and precious stones and its cost-efficiencies. The two major segments of the industry are gold segment (covers around 80% of the jewellery market) and diamonds. India is one of the

The advent of organised retail seems to be a booster for the industry. The Indian retail industry has expanded drastically in major cities and metros and is expected to achieve a total retail market size of USD 750-850 billion by 2015 from the current size of USD 560 billion. Although, 85 to 90% of the industry is unorganised .i.e. (local shops) but with changing times there has been a significant change in the trends and behavioural patterns of the customers who have become more brand conscious of late. Organised retail players such as Tanishq, Geetanjali and various others

world‘s largest manufacturers of cut and polished

expect to grow rapidly in years to come.

diamond

 Ease of access:

with

an

aggregate

contribution

of

approximately 60% of the world‘s supply in terms of

India is the hub of gems and jewels. States of Gujarat,

value and 80% in terms of volume. The industry

Rajasthan take the lead when it comes to country‘s

contributes more than 14% towards the total export in

gold and rough diamond imports. Moreover, the

India and provides employment to 1.3 million people

advent of modern semi-automatic factories, laser

directly and indirectly. The global market for gems and jewellery is over USD 100 billion with major contribution

coming from

Thailand and USA. 19 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

India,

Italy, China,

cutting techniques and skilled manpower has become an indispensable asset for the industry.


WEAKNESSES of the Sector: Although, India has umpteen natural resources it lags behind when it comes to infrastructure. Its weak infrastructure has made it incapable to tap the potential resources and use it for the best possible purpose. Moreover, with respect to the rest of the world India is yet to prove its mettle when it comes to gems and jewels in term of recognised brands, technology and so forth as the competition in the market is fierce. OPPORTUNITIES in the Sector: India has immense potential to become the leader of gems and jewels industry of the world as it has umpteen numbers of natural resources which is spread across length and breadth of the country such as minerals, skilled craftsmen and so forth. Also, the government is constantly taking initiatives in terms of taxes, infrastructure, duties etc. It plans to promote India in a big way through Foreign Trade policy (2009-2014) which would take the industry to new heights. THREATS for the Sector:  Lack of financial support:

which is directly proportional to the industry‘s growth. India lacks enough design development centres to provide feedback and to innovate latest designs to catch up with fashion needs of the foreign buyers which is a major cause to worry.  Cut throat competition: India faces intense competition with respect to China, Thailand and other eastern and Asian countries due to cheap labour, strong infrastructure and a more welcoming government. Technology is another aspect where India lags behind. Apart from China, Israel and Belgium are other contenders who are emerging as diamond processing centres and are more stable as compared to India.  Fluctuation in exchange rate: This

industry

is

majorly

influenced

by

the

rupee/dollar exchange rate as it is an export/import industry. Any variation in the exchange rates causes an impact either positive or negative in the industry. Analysis through Porter’s Five Forces Model:  Bargaining power of suppliers (Medium): India is the largest consumer of gold which has resulted in large bargaining power i.e. the suppliers

The industry faces crisis when it comes to acquiring loans from the bank. As the market mostly comprises of small players, the banks and other financial institutions are sceptical in providing loans which in return jeopardises the economic growth of the firm.

have an edge when it comes to pricing whereas the customer base for rough diamonds is very small in comparison with other countries resulting in mediocre level of bargaining power.  Bargaining power of buyers (Low to Medium):

 Changing customer preference: Bargaining power in gold industry is only limited to Since, the environment in which we reside is ever dynamic, keeping pace with the changing needs and patterns of the customers becomes pretty challenging 20 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

fabrication charges whereas its high in case of diamond cutting and polishing owing to the fact that


majority of the world‘s rough diamond production is

However, the USA and Japan registered a growth in

cut and polished in India.

sales during that period. In case of diamond sector

 Inter firm rivalry (high):

India accounts for almost 50% of the supply in international market. It contributes nearly 55% of the

The Indian industry majorly comprises of unorganised sector employing around 1.5 million workers serving approximately around 0.2 million to the gold sector and over 8000 diamond jewellers. Hence, the rivalry is intense among the firms within the country and also rest of the world.  Barriers to entry (Low): It is extremely easy and accessible to enter the Indian gems and jewels market due to the easy availability of skilled workforce and the ability to invest in advanced technology which results in low intensity for resistance.

world‘s net exports of cut and polished diamonds in value, 90% in terms of pieces and 80% in terms of carats. Every 11 of 12 diamonds sold around the globe are processed in India, irrespective of where these are mined. Hence, India as a country is slowly emerging as king of gems and jewels industry. Outlook: In a nutshell, It can be said that the Indian gems and jewellery market has a bright future owing to the increased focus of the world towards quality of gems and jewellery products and better purchasing power of the people in India. The industry survives on the

 Threat of substitutes (Low):

supportive government policies, availability of skilled

Gold plays a pivotal role in India when it comes to

labour and strong demand from the domestic market.

savings, investment purpose, festivals, marriage and

However due to highly unorganised structure and

so forth. Hence, the chances of substituting gold with

intense competition among the players the margins

other substances are less. Same is applicable for

earned by the players are less. India is one of the

diamond owing to its purity. Hence, the industry is

emerging players in the Gems and Jewellery market

negligibly suffers from the threat of substitutes.

but in order to carve a niche for itself, it needs to

India’s Position from Global Perspective:

adapt itself well to the dynamic environment, changing lifestyles and expenditure pattern through

Globally, India recorded a hike in demand up to 37%

better

whereas China had recorded a hike of about 54% long

technology. In near future, gold jewellery demand is

ago. There was also noticeable increase in demand in

likely to witness consistent growth driven by evolving

other parts of the world such as Turkey and the

lifestyle, which also holds true for the diamond sector

Middle East region. At present, India and China are

to some extent. Hence, I would like to conclude on the

fierce competitors when it comes to the gold sector

note that ―All that glitters is GOLD‖.

whereas in diamond sector, the skyrocketing growth in the key developing markets of China and India slowed down in 2013 amid economic recession.

21 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

quality

products

and

adopting

modern


Article of the Month

Taming the Fiscal Beast

- Nutan Patnaik & Devatha Saikiran, XIMB Bhubaneswar

Many a balance of payment crisis has forced

nature of government firms. Government projects are

governments into austerity. However for the short

notorious for their high failure and delay rate,

term pain to translate into long term sustainable

obsolete bureaucratic decision making. They are

growth requires skilful handling by professionals to

inherently

facilitate this transition.

administratively difficult to halt .They also face the

US, Britain, Greece, Portugal, Poland and Cyprus are undertaking important fiscal squeeze measures. India

risky

as

they

are

politically

and

highest degree of organisational resistance to any change due to lenient labour laws.

is one major example of a government trying out a

The 3-Step Improvement Framework for Indian

landmark transition from a populist model to a frugal

Public Sector:

model based on financial discipline. The current fiscal deficit situation threatens to collapse the economy and make the country vulnerable to reform mandates from International Organizations such as IMF, whose onesize-fits-all neo-liberal policies may cripple the country's economic freedom and eventually may not

We propose a broad 3-step framework to resolve inefficiencies afflicting the public sector, through a slew of policy changes. It will apply to broad range of public sector enterprises. This will be demonstrated by its application in providing consulting for one such enterprise, say Indian railways.

work out in the country's best interests. State owned Indian Railways typify the public sector. The government has to take care of three things. It has to increase its rather low revenue base, cut down on public expenditure and avoid exposure to shocks caused by fluctuations in global commodity prices. The government's revenue collections are low owing to low per capita income and low growth in business. To counter this, Goods and Services Tax is one measure that needs to be introduced soon, which will give a fillip to growth and reduce tax evasions. Exposure to shocks can be minimized by managing sovereign credit. However, the biggest contributor to the fiscal deficit is the huge public sector, a legacy of the socialist beginnings of the economy. The highly inefficient and bureaucratic public sector enterprises

It is the fourth largest in the world. It symbolizes democracy's triumph as the poorest Indian has become mobile. Yet, it is inefficient, corrupt, over manned and politicized. Analysts say some 70 million people travel every year without tickets, the manpower employed per kilometre is 7 times more than that in developed nations. Private companies would not dream of transporting goods by rail due to high tariffs and delays. Therefore, even petrol and diesel are inefficiently transported by road. Powerful unions resist any scaling down or modernization. Investment decisions are usually populist measures with little relevance to financial sustainability or consumer needs.

are weighed down by the burden of populism such as subsidies and other considerations unique to the

Let us now see how we can fit the above in our three pronged framework.

22 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4


also account for 60% of annual subsidy of Rs. 26,000 crores. We suggest the subsidies must be phased out and railways be deregulated as much as possible. All the welfare activities and the social schemes of the government cross subsidized by income from the public sector units must rather be funded by taxes as it is done most of the developed nations. This can be achieved by introduction of Gross Service Tax which aims to prevent the tax leakages and also considerably increase the tax base. Step 2: Incentive Based System Step 1: Growth-Profit Duality

We think that Government can no more say it has no business being in business and profit motive and

Edith Penrose, the British economist, has explained in ‗The Theory of the Growth of the Firm‘ that profit and growth of an enterprise fuel each other in an infinite feedback loop. Profits would be desired for the sake of the firm itself and in order to make profit through more expansion. Thus, it is not hard to see that Indian public sector has completely deviated from the basic tenet of Growth-profit duality and this is a precursor to unsustainability in the long run. It must be minimized by maintaining that investments are not

motivation must be at the top of the agenda for public sector. It must ensure that all the employees not only work responsibly and efficiently but also gain prestige, personal satisfaction in the successful growth of the firm with which they are connected, more responsible and better paid positions, and wider scope for their ambitions and abilities. A carrot and stick approach must be adopted so the people responsible for running the PSUs are incentivized for their performance as well as penalized for their non-

made unless profits are made and profits made by the

performance. Whereas the ‗carrot‘ approach is easy to

enterprise are re-invested back in its growth.

apply, to show the ‗stick‘ means making changes in

The recent hike in railway fares coming after 11 years

the age old labour laws of India.

is a step in the right direction. For too long, the railways have incurred losses due unsustainable passenger and freight charges due to populist policies. However, the recent announcement of launch of bullet trains proves we have not learnt from our past mistakes. We belong to the school of thought that further investments in a system that is already reeling from huge losses will further bleed it. The railways

23 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

Applying the above solutions can solve most of the present day ills of Indian Railways as this leads to improved efficiency, performance and profits. All the stakeholders must work in synergy to achieve the desired results and this can be achieved by incentivizing the performance at all the levels.


and

practices,

keeping

up

with

the

industry

benchmarks and giving adequate training to the stakeholders, leakages can be prevented and losses can be overcome. Conclusion: Most of the steps suggested above may seem simple but are taken for granted. These steps are critical and address the problem at the core of the public sector failure. Re-inventing the public sector is the need of the hour, and the key to fiscal consolidation.

Step 3: Learning Curve and adapting to Emerging Trends Any firm must dig its history to understand its core competencies and invest resources to consolidate them. Weaknesses can be overcome by disinvestment and privatization. But it must not lose out on the learning curve by blind disinvestment. Rather than trying to resuscitating the loss making activities that are not core competencies of a firm, outsourcing them must be considered wherever necessary. However, it must be borne it mind to not overdo it as getting rid of a problem is not equivalent to solving it and makebuy decisions must be made carefully. India had lost out during the industrialization era due to its failure to upgrade to latest technology in the textiles business. The same mistakes are being repeatedly made by not updating to the latest technology. The railways budget for the financial year invited private

players

and

FDI.

The

private

public

partnership (PPP) model must breathe life into the functioning

of

the

sector

notorious

for

its

inefficiencies. By employing cutting edge technology 24 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4


Star Company

TCS: The New Superstar of India Inc.

- Manjari, IBS Hyderabad

Since its start in the year 1968, Tata Consultancy

Analysts say that as companies grow too big in size

Services has come a long way. The company is a part

their growth slows down as they find fewer

of the Tata Group (1868), which is a global enterprise

opportunities. But why is the market still bullish on

headquartered in India, and comprises over 100

India's biggest outsourcer TCS, which pulled in

operating companies in seven business sectors:

annual revenues Rs. 81,809 crore in 2013-14 and has

communications

technology,

over 3 lakh employees. They also believe TCS is well

engineering, materials, services, energy, consumer

on its way to reach a $100-billion market cap in the

products and chemicals. Tata companies have

next two years. "TCS has managed to maintain

operations in more than 100 countries across six

industry-leading growth; it can add to this through the

continents, and export products and services to over

inorganic route," said Raamdeo Agarwal, joint

150 countries. The revenue of Tata companies, taken

managing director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

and

information

together, was $103.27 billion (around Rs624,757 crore) in 2013-14, with 67.2 percent of this coming from businesses outside India. Tata companies employ over 581,470 people worldwide.

In an excerpt from WSJ, Mr. Chandrasekaran CEO and managing director said ―They question our ability because they think large is bad. But we believe we are not large. Instead, we have the scale.

TCS has firmly established itself as India's most-

When we have scale we make big bets on innovation

valued company. On July 27 2014, the Mumbai-

and future technologies. When our revenues were

based outsourcer added another feather to its cap as it

small, we didn't have the luxury to invest ahead of

became the first Indian company to surpass Rs. 5 lakh

time in multiple initiatives. If we organize ourselves

crore ($83 billion at 60 rupees=1 dollar) in market

in a way where each business unit can independently

capitalisation. TCS' nearest rival in terms of market

work on new ideas, we can be agile enough to

cap is state-run ONGC (Rs. 3.5 lakh crore). Reliance

leverage the scale.‖

Industries, India's biggest company by sales, ranks third by market cap (Rs. 3.3 lakh crore) currently. Its market cap is now the second-largest for an information-technology services company worldwide, behind only International Business Machines Corp.—and it's more than the combined value of next three Indian IT services companies - Infosys (Rs. 1.90 lakh crore), Wipro (Rs. 1.39 lakh crore) and HCL Tech (Rs. 1.07 lakh crore).

25 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4


presence and our full range of global capabilities to serve the Japanese corporations effectively and accelerate our growth in the Japan marke and will help in expansion of TCS in Asian, Middle East , Latin America along with UK and US markets. Five forces of new technology - mobility, big data, social media, cloud computing and robotics has been implemented by TCS for sustaining and improved growth. Also it takes initiatives to train and develop Chart: TCS Vs. INFOSYS LTD

its employees as well as it give its leaders the autonomy to take decisions freely. Recently, it has announced that it is setting up the world‘s largest

In my opinion the growth in market cap of TCS is reflective of the firm's consistent performance over the past few years. The sharp fall in the rupee value

corporate learning and development center with a total capacity to train 15,000 professionals at one time and 50,000 professionals annually.

against the dollar, if had a great impact on the profit margins of Indian IT companies. Since TCS earn most

TCS has retained and grown its position through

of its revenue in dollars and expenditures are mostly in rupees, profit margins widen in line with the rupee depreciation. A keen focus on inorganic growth, an increasing proportion of infrastructure management services in revenue, effective employee resource management and advancement in technology have emerged as key differentiators. On the inorganic growth prospects of the company, Mr Mistry said acquisitions will depend on independent requirements in new geographies, adding that acquisition of Alti SA will help the company expand significantly in France. competitive positioning in the market , improved Mergers and aquistions are happening throughout the globe for TCS. Recently on April 21 2014- TCS, announced the formation of a Japan-focused entity

quality

of

technological

growth

,

deepened

relationship with customers and expanding their presence in newer markets.

through the merger of its two Japanese arms with a 100 per cent subsidiary of Mitsubishi Corporation which expects to clock annual revenues of $600 million. It will now have the scale, strong local 26 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

The rise of Indian Economy is the story of the rise of Service Sector in India. Service sector in general and IT sector in particular has been the growth engine of


of the European countries are still staring at Sovereign Default.

USA

has

also

struggled

to

contain

unemployment figures in spite of the much debated Quantitative Easing. The Indian economy is also not immune to the happenings of the global Economy, and the economy suffered a lot because the demand for exports of Indian Goods and Services has gone down. Many Indian firms have struggled to find the momentum back that they got during boom years. In spite of all the challenges mentioned above, the increase in the market capitalization of TCS above Rs. 5 Lakh Crore is a remarkable feet. This incredible performance has given a boost to not only the IT sector but the economy as a whole when the investors all over the world looking towards India as one of the most promising destination for their money. The inflow of foreign capital in form of FIIs in the equity of TCS proves it beyond doubt that not only the domestic investors but the investors all over the world also have shown tremendous faith and promise in the the Indian Economy. The rise of IT sector has written a new story of Indian industry on the Global Scale. The Indian growth story has become synonymous with the growth and expansion of IT industry. TCS has led from front in establishing an institution that has worked towards developing an IT infrastructure that is unparalleled in the whole world. From an Indian firm, it has grown to the standards of a Global Giant. Recently, the jitters in the developing economies of Asia and Latin America has sent shock waves to the already suffering world economy, that has struggled to come out of the Great Recession of 2008-09. Most

27 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

Indian Global IT Giant. No doubt, that in near future, with its growth oriented policies and profit making tactics, Tata Consultancy Services has risen as the shining star of India Inc.


Opinion

Fiscal Deficit and it’s Impact on Indian Economy

- Shikhar Sharma, IMT Ghaziabad

Fiscal deficit: An Overview In simple terms, Fiscal deficit is the difference between the government‘s expenditures and its revenues (excluding the money it has borrowed). The government generates its revenue from a variety of sources like Direct and Indirect taxes, PSU divestment etc. However, in a developing economy like India the revenue mostly fell short of the expenditure the government makes in terms of Government deficit is possibly the most dominating issue in the global financial markets these days.

subsidies for poor, defence spending and other planned expenditures.

Several major economies including US, UK, Spain

In broader terms, high government expenditure and

etc. have been reeling under huge deficits. The

lower revenues are the main causes of high deficits. If

situation in India is not very different. Looking at the

we particularly look at India, we would observe that

last 6 years, there has been a lot of hue and cry about

apart from the Planned and Defence expenditure;

India‘s ballooning Fiscal deficit and the urgent need

subsidies and interest cost form the major chunk of

of fiscal consolidation. Various rating agencies and

the expenditure. With the previous government‘s

International funding organizations including S&P,

stress on social schemes like MNREGA, Food

Fitch, IMF, ADB etc., have warned India of dire

security

consequences in case the rising deficit is not tamed.

tremendously

Since these organizations of International stature

corresponding revenue stream coming in to balance it.

attach so much importance to Fiscal and Current

Also since the government mostly finances its deficit

account deficits; the toughest job of any Indian

through borrowings either from RBI or through

Finance Minister has been to bring the twin deficits

issuance of treasury bonds or through foreign markets,

under control, so as to avoid any rating downgrades.

the debt on the govt. increases. This in turn increases

In the current fiscal‘s financial budget, Mr. Arun

the rate of interest at which the govt. can borrow in

jaitley has laid down a fiscal consolidation plan with

the future. Thus, to finance huge deficits the

an aim to reduce the deficit to 3% by 2016-17.

government has to incur huge interest cost thereby

Let‘s now delve deeper into Fiscal deficit and its

worsening the fiscal deficit situation.

implications for India.

28 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

etc.

the over

subsidy past

bill few

has years

increased with

no


Fiscal deficit: Impact on Indian Economy Though a large fiscal deficit by itself is not bad, it can

of currency again leads to higher Current account deficit, thereby impacting the credit rating.

affect the country‘s economic growth adversely. A

Delay in fiscal consolidation does not reflect well on

large

government‘s economic management abilities. It also

fiscal

deficit

implies

high

government

borrowing and

reduces the

debt

state‘s

servicing. This

capacity to

leads to a cut

lend

back

in

support

spending

in

the

priority sectors

economy in

like

case

high

infrastructure, health

debt on its balance sheets, financing the interest burden leads to Crowding out of money from the system leaving businesses with less money. This in turn leads to fewer investments by the private sector

the

slips.

education, capital. Moreover, since the government has a lot of

to

growth

and

thereby reducing growth in human and physical

any

Rise

in

inflation is a natural outcome of high fiscal deficit. Considering

the

2008-09

crises,

the

Indian

government infused a lot of capital into the system to keep the growth on trajectory. The higher supply of money into the system resulted in inflation since the output was not able to keep pace with rising demand.

due to less the availability of capital, ultimately impacting country‘s job market and demand led

Fiscal Deficit: The Way Forward

growth.

The Finance ministry has been working on a fiscal

One of the major nightmares of any finance minister is Sovereign downgrades. Rating downgrades by International agencies like S&P, Moody‘s etc. tend to erode the investors‘ confidence, both domestic and foreign, in the economy. Downgrades leads to a ripple effect in the system whereby the business confidence deteriorates affecting FDI and FII inflows. Reduction in foreign inflows impacts our foreign currency reserves and results in depreciation of our currency. Since we are an import driven economy, depreciation

consolidation plan and has indicated its will to maintain a fiscal deficit of 4.1% for FY‘15, 3.6% in FY‘16 and 3% in FY‘17. As is evident from FY‘15 budget, the government has embarked on a path of fiscal consolidation and is trying to control its expenditure and improve its revenue. The government has taken steps to restrain its expenditure by just marginally increasing its expenses on subsidy by 2% and cutting down its expenditure on social services sector from Rs. 25438 Cr. (RE) To 25324 Cr. (BE). However,

29 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

the

problem

remains

of

actually


implementing these steps. As is seen from the past

control its expenditure on food and fertiliser subsidy.

budgets as well, the government mostly overshoots

Also it needs to make sure that the present system becomes more efficient and there are no slippages so that the budgetary estimates of the expenditures are actually achieved. According to the latest available data, the fiscal deficit data at the end of the first quarter (2014) has reached 56.1% of the full year target mostly because of subdued revenues. Currently the task of controlling the fiscal deficit to 4.1% of GDP seems herculean; however let‘s hope the government comes out clean on its promises to contain deficit.

the target it sets and this time too according to many analysts, the target is going to be breached. The government must think of a long term solution to contain Fiscal deficit which has been plaguing the country for past many years. The government needs to provide a much needed push to cash starved sectors like infrastructure, power etc., get consensus from various stakeholders on important bills like GST and should create policies that attract long term capital in the country which includes bringing in more clarity on Retrospective tax issue. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), "India's revenue-to-GDP ratio has fallen below its peers. The GST would be the most important reform, and would boost growth through the creation of a single Indian market". The government also needs to widen its tax base so that fiscal consolidation could be partly achieved through a higher tax-GDP ratio than merely through reduction in the expenditure-to-GDP ratio. On the expenses front, the government needs to 30 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4


Cover Story

Flipkart: A Growth Story or a Ticking Time Bomb Shopping

trends

in

India

have

undergone

- Sachi Kheskani, IBS Hyderabad

a

The concept of e-commerce is setting in at rapid pace

remarkable transition, right from a time when most of

in the psyche of the Indian consumer. In the metros,

shopping was done by males of the family or a seller

paucity of time is a big driver for online shopping. On

coming at your doorsteps to sell saree, to women

the other hand, accessibility to myriad products makes

carrying trolleys in malls. And now an era has begun

audiences from smaller towns and cities opt for the

where shopping is just a click away. "Flipkart " has

online route. There arises warehousing and stocking

now become a new verb which is yet to be added to

problems for physical distributors and retailers.

Oxford's dictionary.

Sometimes, customers are unable to buy items

The Millenial generation has created

interesting

of their choice, thus

and

innovative businesses and Flipkart deserves a mention.

Flipkart, have defined the for

nearly

to 160

additional stretch,

and

subsequent adoption of

operations,

e-commerce, thus, only

now it is a full fledged

seems rational. With

virtual mall where you can

several reputed brick-

add products to your wish

story is not just about astounding success and mind-

connect

The

price comparison platform to

nascent idea to a 4,500-member company, the Flipkart

proposes

Internet users by 2014.

history, where it provided a

list if not buy for moment. From a two-member

Broadband

billion, million

India. Going back to its

its

e-retailers.

to

to

Plan, pegged at $4.5

Binny Bansal co-founders of

expanding

resort

National

amount of 4 lacs, Sachin and

"E-commerce"

them

Also the Government's

With a start up of a meagre

term

prompting

and-mortar retailers also offering online services, it seems natural the trend of shopping remotely will rise significantly.

numbing numbers. It is much more than that, it's

Recently, Flipkart is making news for quite a lot of

about redefining customer experience and breaking

reasons. Flipkart raised $1.78 billion since it started in

online shopping inertia. The customer satisfaction

2007, along with $1.57 billion over the past year. It

mantra it follows is "Don't count your customer

reported a loss of about five times more than previous

before they smile."

years as of 2013. These losses mainly accounted for

31 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4


high expenditures on supply chain management,

since expenses shoot up. Flipkart‘s approach of

distribution and recruitment of employees.

bringing in a white label Chinese tablet may get the

Even though investors were shying from e-commerce, the company managed to raise capital. In the beginning of the year 2014, Flipkart crossed a $1 billion ingross merchandise value, after merging with a leading fashion portal Myntra. Also it had acquired letsbuy.com a leading electronics leader, in 2012 after

sales counters ticking but won‘t take it anywhere close to Amazon‘s Holy Grail of understanding the customer since the latter is easier to use. Amazon is looking at the Big Picture from where Flipkart won‘t be able to compete there for a while and will need far more than $1 billion.

which the latter ceased to exist. The after effects of

A strong back-end is a vital pre-requisite for an online

which were that Flipkart in March hit $1 billion in

business to survive, since once the customer

sales, a target which it achieved a year ahead of plan

completes her transaction, it's this back-end that

and

connects the dots. Flipkart began operations on the

is

enjoying

economies

of

scale

after

consolidation. To take on rivals Amazon, another e-commerce company which has strong presence in India, has been discounting prices, launching next-day delivery, adding new product categories and embarking on a high-voltage advertisement campaign. Jeff Bezos, of Amazon has just announced to increase investment by 2 billion in India. The extra edge that Amazon has over Flipkart is its services are faster. Amazon has expanded its operations in many metros. Amazon and

consignment model, where goods were procured from suppliers on demand, based on the orders received through the website. However, eventually, the booksto-electronics e-shop adopted the warehouse model. The company has its own warehouses, and maintains its own inventory. Sales projection determines the inventory, and the available inventory accounts for the sales made; it's a self-feeding cycle of sorts. Such a model provides for better control over the entire logistics management piece.

Flipkart are competing in terms of attracting global

On the operational front, issues faced by the company

talent as well, but this move could be fatal for Flipkart

pertain to delay in deliveries, or faulty products. As a

32 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4


customer-centric organisation, none of these issues

entity so far. Although profits after tax remain

can remain unresolved for long. Hence, Flipkart

negative, the company's valuation is soaring thanks to

stresses on customer service it aligns with the firm's

eager participation of these private equity players. The

philosophy of ‗making better our service promise'. So

acquisition of Letsbuy.com and Myntra signals

The next time you call Flipkart's customer service to

FlipKart's ambitions to capture the domestic online

change the delivery date or complain about a product,

market. A budding consumer class, coupled with a

the agent calming your frayed nerves could be Sachin

rise in web-literate population and zealous venture

Bansal, its founder and chief executive or any of the

capital funding may propel Flipkart to become India's

top executives.

answer to Amazon.com!

The Road Ahead

Only those companies that can successfully engage

The three main ingredients to keep Flipkart striving are Innovation, customer satisfaction and Venture funding. Innovation is just one facet of the business universe. The premise of any business be it traditional or modern, rests on its ability to harness data, market

customers through novel ideas, quality products and flawless services will prosper. May be it is absolute genius, or simple common sense the e-retail hero has been able to accomplish all this during its formative years.

research hence becomes crucial for planning the

Flipkart as of now will live to tell the tale and venture

business's future course of action. This adds to the

again.

‗surprise and delight' factor for customers, because they're then treated to offers that are most suited and relevant to their preferences. Just like Flipkart has recently tied up with OLX for marketing purposes, we can expect Flipkart to outsource some of its internal activities such as its call center operations to experienced firms in the industry like Aegis. This will enable Flipkart to concentrate more on its core competencies. In E-commerce there is a lot of scope as well as is the risk of failure. A leading consulting firm named Technopak

Advisors

estimates

India's

digital

economy at $600 million at present, with the potential to swell upto $70 billion by 2020. Flipkart is running the marathon with ample support from private equity players such as Accel Partners and Tiger Global, which have collectively invested $150 million in the 33 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

Jewellery


Carry Forward

Saving Aadhar

- Navjoth Sahu, IBS Hyderabad

Unique identification project was initially designed by

certificates.

the Planning Commission, under the UPA regime of

biometric identification numbers to millions of

Government,

provide

Indians, was then criticized by several Bharatiya

identification for each resident across the country and

Janata Party (BJP) leaders in the run-up to the

would be used primarily as the basis for efficient

national elections. Now that the BJP is in office,

delivery of welfare services. It would also act as a tool

analysts of high cadre have said that the new

for effective monitoring of various programs and

government has cleverly chosen ―pragmatism over

schemes of the Government. And that is how Aadhaar

politics‖ and has decided to maintain the system and

Card came into existence. But, from the day of

accelerate resident registration in its first budget in

initiation till date it been a major area of confusion to

order to provide sustainable effort in the upcoming

both the common people and majorly the less seeming

budgets. The new government has allocated nearly

concerned politicians. Aadhaar being a 12 digit

US$340 million to continue and extend with the

individual identification number issued by the Unique

registration process. After an examination last month,

Identification Authority of India on behalf of the

the national government concluded that many Indian

Government of India. Which was thought of serving

states had made significant headway with enrolling

as a proof of identity and address, anywhere in India.

residents in the Aadhaar system. As a result, Prime

Any individual, irrespective of age and gender, who is

Minister Narendra Modi along with Finance Minister

a resident in India and satisfies the verification

Arun Jaitley decided Aadhaar should in fact continue

process laid down by the UIDAI can enroll for

and not be merged with India‘s census database

Aadhaar. Basically introduced to eliminate the large

system , as previous press reports suggested would

number of duplicate and fake identities in government

occur. The government‘s objective for present is to

and private databases. According to the latest budget

enroll 100 million more residents with Aadhaar.

after an extensive review, India‘s new national elected

UIDAI has already enrolled about 700 million people

government has decided to retain and expand

and issued unique identification numbers to 650

Aadhaar, the world‘s largest biometric database. The

million. According to International Monetary Fund‘s

Aadhaar

Unique

recently published report, ―Regional Outlook: Asia

Identification Authority of India (UIDAI), is currently

and Pacific‖, the group notes that the integration of

used to authenticate delivery of social services

direct cash transfer with Aadhaar will take time, but

including direct wage payments to bank accounts,

will ultimately help the Indian government save 0.5

natural gas subsidies to India‘s rural poor, and school

percent of the GDP. Reported by another news agency

attendance. The system, a landmark legacy project of

, the report specifically says that ―if the combination

India‘s long ruling Congress Party, also provides

of direct transfer and Aadhaar eliminates the

identification to people who do not have birth

estimated 15 percent leakage cited above for the

as

an

program,

tool

that

governed

34 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

would

by

the

The

scheme,

which

has

provided


programmes being integrated, savings could total 0.5

decided to put pragmatism over politics after initially

percent of GDP in addition to the gains from the

appearing keen on purging the UPA's pet project that

better targeting of spending on the poor.‖ The report

aims to provide every Indian resident a 12-digit

also notes that by phasing out middlemen and

unique identity number. At a recent meeting, Prime

complex bureaucracies, the direct cash transfer

Minister

scheme will also drive costs down and improve the

representatives to link social-sector schemes with the

bottom line. Another market research on the Aadhaar

unique ID numbers for plugging leakages and

have something else to say it concludes that it is

increasing accountability of officials. Though there

poised for significant growth, thanks in part to the

are some great news for the people, as they are going

Aadhaar program and direct cash transfer scheme.

to be benefitted with major developments that are

There have been some issues of adoption however, for

going to be carved by the new present ruling

the UIDAI‘s Aadhaar cash transfer system, as several

government, there are issues like duplication or

bank in India have come out against a platform

making of fake Aadhaar cited at many locations all

created by the UIDAI which would see Aadhaar

over the country. There is another issue with the

numbers used to authentication ID before every

unavailability of the Aadhaar card as many don't

transaction regarding bank accounts receiving welfare

understand the importance of the enrollment where as

benefits. As we reported last month, 15% of

other believe it to another such identity linked to the

consumers have already provided their Aadhaar

government body. On one hand the government being

details to banks. At present according to reports

concerned over the raise in the gross domestic product

Aadhaar enrolment has now reached 286.66 million,

in the present monsoon less hit economy, on the

representing a significant jump, owed widely to the

contrary we find people being skeptical over the

launch of the UIDAI‘s direct transfer scheme

Congressified budget. Only time can say what was

launched early this year. This increase is good news to

done

stakeholders in the Aadhaar program, as in May 2012,

understanding the economy with more concerned

enrollment stood at only 4.76 million, significantly

looks, hoping that people did not made any mistake in

less than January for example, in which enrolment

giving power to a self oriented person who cited

stood at 24.79 million. Based on the country‘s 2012-

himself of many achievements for the prime minister

2013 Economic Survey, the second phase of the

candidacy. Another point is that the Aadhaar being

Aadhaar project aims to enroll 400 million residents

linked with the government is not linked to benefits to

by 2014. In a major breakthrough, The Centre has

the people as other all such identity do, giving us a

decided to name a new director general for Unique

question, If it is not linked with India‘s census

Identification

database system then what would be its future scope

Authority

of

India

(UIDAI),

or

Aadhaar, in yet another signal of its commitment to continue with the previous government's flagship programme. Government sources say the NDA has 35 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

was

Narendra

right

or

Modi

wrong

asked

and

Aadhaar

people

of identification being a twelve digit number be?

start


Opinion

Bringing Shadow Banks Out of Shadow

- Swati Gupta, Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad

An old adage goes,‖ An excess of mirth leads to tear‖.

Peoples Bank of China squeezed out the money

The fastest growing country has started showing slow

market by forcing the banks to follow regulated

growth and one of the reasons was the danger of the

lending and borrowing interest rates along with the

systematic credit risks arising due to the unregulated

rigid terms and conditions. The artificial rates

growth in the Shadow Banking sector.

designed by the Central Bank followed a lending rate

Shadow banking is worth more than $70 trillion all over the world. It comprises of Non-Bank Financial Intermediaries which provide similar services like traditional banking system but operates outside the regulated lending system. They create credit across the financial system which is more prone to default due to their risky portfolio. Shadow banking comprises of not only the risky investment products & lending between the individuals (securitized loans), but also the loan shark operations & pawn shops along with derivatives and securities lending. The main kind of shadow deposit is known as loosely bound Wealth management products (WMPs). These are high rate accounts which have yield much higher than the 3% interest yielding savings account. Certain trust companies also form these WMPs that the banks commercialise for a certain amount of fee.

of 4.2% or above and the borrowing rate of less than 6%. Traditional banks also check the portfolio of the customer thoroughly before imparting loans. There was huge need of commodities which included the base metals and the crude oil that required lot of financing. There were several Small and Medium Enterprises in the growth stage and required funds for further enhancement. However, due to the lower credit rating, they could not avail the loans from the traditional banks. This gave rise to the unstructured form of loans offered by Shadow Banking system where the loans were easily accessible to them, but at a higher interest rate; sometimes it even went as high as 20% per annum. Moreover, the banks of china have to maintain the Reserve Requirement ratio where in they have to maintain a reserve of 20% with the Central Bank. Unlike traditional banks, these rules do not apply to Shadow banking system. This increases

It is known to all that US suffered from liquidity crisis in 2008 due to the lack of liquidity in short term lending programme. The economists consider that Shadow Banking was one of the major reasons behind the losses in the subprime spread. This brought in a

their potential to create higher loan portfolio. Shadow banking system attracted more amounts of deposits from the more number of customers by giving them higher rate of return than the traditional banking system.

significant change in the economy of US which invariably affected the world and a global recession was declared. But it seems that China did not learn much from the incident.

But as the saying goes ―All that glitters is not gold‖. Although Shadow Banking has helped the SME sector to evolve, it has come with its own drawbacks. It increased the liquidity risk due to the increase in the

36 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4


decade. This has not only led to asset deterioration, due to lower growth rate and increased opacity in shadow banking, but also devaluation of the stock market. China forms the ―Epicenter‖ of Shadow Banking that showed a growth of around 40% last year. It has added $12.5 trillion to its monetary stock which includes both public and private sector debts. It has become necessary to reduce the pace as it may affect the GDP growth rate of China and blow up sectors like real estate & constructions. Since China forms the default rate of the customers. This was majorly because of the lack of background check and unawareness about the credit capacity of the customer. They also took inadequate collateral (if any) which was insufficient to offset the loan in case of any default. Banks, at the same time, tried to compete with the Shadow Banking system by increasing the exposure of the loan but due to slow deposit growth rate the liquidity decreased further. This has led to suboptimal allocation of funds, which is the means to evaluate the growing operations in China.

World‘s second largest economy, this can have a detrimental effect on other countries too. There can be two solutions, i.e., by either plugging the regulatory rate or by allowing the traditional banks manage their cost of funds according to the market forces. Moreover, the traditional banks can promote better deposit and insurance policies which can create loans eventually. It is necessary to keep an offset between the Shadow banking system and the Traditional Banking system as increase in the latter can lead to slow growth and economic slowdown but increase in the former can bring in huge amount of systematic

The financial system considers that shadow banking

risk. Thus, if the People‘s Bank of China will not use

activity poses these systematic risks. Volatility

right tools at the right time, the future can be worse.

Institute at the NYU Stern School has calculated that

Indian Scenario

China possesses the highest level of SRisk of around €460 billion, which is three times greater than the USA. With the exception of Bank of China, it has been observed that all the banks of China have shown a notable increase in the perceived Systematic Risk in

The traditional and the Shadow banking system of India are also interlinked in India. However, India has a much better and stronger structure for maintaining its finance but it is still far from being perfect.

the past six months. Increase of SRisk of €7.5 billion

Reserve Bank of India should maintain the liquidity of

or 18.2%, followed by increase of SRisk of €5.3

banks appropriately in order to avoid high systematic

billion, or 10.3% in the Agricultural Bank of China, the country was facing this huge threat after almost a 37 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

risk due to increase in leverage condition.


International Desk

Microsoft: Creating a Leaner Organization

- Priyanka Malik, IBS Hyderabad

integration & strategic alignment. Although Microsoft isn‘t a pioneer in workforce realignment &big giants like IBM, HP & Intel have also laid-off around 3-5% of their workforce but the figure of 14% has actually astonished the world. Microsoft is in a race with the mammoths Apple & Google & has been seeking to meld its hardware & software business into a cohesive package. The impact of the acquisition & layoffs was very quick as can be seen from the rise in share prices of Microsoft by 3% accounting for a total increase of 18% since the Bill Gates quoted ―Microsoft is not about greed. It‘s about innovation & fairness. Founded in 1975, MICROSOFT is the worldwide leader in software, services &solutions that help people & businesses realize their full potential. Recent appointment of Satya Nadella as the CEO of the company was the start of Microsoft moving in a new direction. Acquiring Nokia‘s devices & services business was a step in the same direction. It‘s a strong step to realize the dream of ‗mobile first‘ & ‗cloud

beginning of the year. Also the company takes into account the pretax charges of $1.1-$1.6 billion over the next four quarters. In the hope of a bright future the company plans to capture the market by replacing Nokia X products with Lumia products running windows. It‘s a way to build an affordable smart-phone space & Windows Universal Apps. Also, to win the higher price tier the innovative

ideas

would

help

to

enliven

the

Microsoft‘s digital work &digital life experience.

first‘ world. At Nokia the goal was to provide a successful The situation of employees was no less than the oxymoron ‗joyful trouble‘ as, soon after acquiring Nokia it announced the downsizing. Laying off 18,000 employees or 14 % of the work force over the next year is the deepest job cut ever in the history of Microsoft .After acquisition of Nokia the head count was pushed to 127,000 from 99,000.About 12,500 layoffs will come from eliminating overlaps with the Nokia unit. The layoff is the basis of two outcomeswork simplification & Nokia Devices & Services

hardware which is taken a step forward by Microsoft as it intends to delight the customer by their services & application provided by hardware of their own. Lumia 930, Lumia 1520 & other innovative products would be launched soon for the same. It also plans to offer Nokia, MixRadio as a third party service. It‘s almost impossible to think of a company that has managed to build a successful platform while simultaneously competing with its own licensees. Failure of giants like Apple with Mac & the Newton,

38 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4


environment.

It

helps

in

improving the agility of work force,

providing

accountability

&

better work

simplification. In accordance with ‗Microsoft‘, the company has decided to have few managerial levels. It will eliminate roles in several departments & will also add Palm with Palm OS & Nokia with Symbian suggests the same. Since, Microsoft is lightening the same pathway it is to face inevitable complications in the near future. Hence, the strategic planning of Nadella might have a lot to offer. But the situation sticks to either of the extremes for sure. Amidst the race against several giants, the question arises that is this ―lean & mean‖ approach, to achieve the goal of becoming a productivity & platform

roles in the required areas. The company makes it a point to intimate the employees to be laid- off with a prior notice period. Severance & related benefits would be offered accounting to a total amount of $750-$800 million. Also it would provide the employees with the help of job transition. Henceforth, laying- off 14% of its workforce isn‘t that great a scenario from the social point of view but its efforts to restore the dignity of their employees for the

company correct?

contribution they made to the organization can‘t be

There can‘t be a direct; assertive answer to the

overlooked.

question as it has got both the social & organizational aspect attached to it. Organizations become the foundation for the society to progress but the situations like layoffs are equivalent to a push towards the downfall. It will not only render a huge chunk of people jobless but also, mount the pressure to earn bread & butter, raise their families & to restore their self esteem. It actually shatters the self confidence of the people which adds on to decrease the productivity of the dismissed people. Organizational point of view states that realignment of workforce is very essential not only to cut down the additional cost but also to clear the bloated work 39 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4


Opinion

Changing Face of Manufacturing and Agricultural Sector - Ravi Kant, IMT Hyderabad

When

the

New

Economic

Policy

1991

was

implemented, things started to rebound in the Indian Economy. The year 2001-2008 was considered as the golden period for India as it was growing at 8-9% annually where Service Sector contributed 52% to the GDP growth but simultaneously Agriculture Sector and the Manufacturing Sector showed non-impressive growth. With the inception of the US Recession, the

1. Boosting Manufacturing Sector – Indian Manufacturers are performing below their potential since the reforms. The Manufacturing contribution to GDP as can be seen from the below graph that has been hovering around 14-16% and then from the financial year 2011-12 it has been showing a decelerating effect leading our Economy towards lower phase of the business cycle.

party was actually over. Our economy was enveloped with many problems. Inflation, lower GDP, increasing CAD, growing inequality, poor performance by the infrastructure sector and its related sectors have created sluggishness in the economy. All these led to sharp depreciation to the Indian Rupee that was making headlines in every newspaper and TV News Channel which had further halted our Indian Economy. Most of the problems encountered by the Indian Economy above are the result of Policy Paralysis of the UPA Government. In the General Election 2014, UPA Government lost the battle to Narendra Modi led NDA Government bringing the ‗Gujarat Model of Development‘ for India. The Union Budget 2014-15 has paid special emphasis for the revival of the investment and entrepreneurial climate of India. Gita Gopinath, Economics Professor, Harvard University told to Mint, “India is likely to grow at 6% in 2014-15 and if the Government delivers on its promise of good governance, growth can return to 7-8%.” What could be the Engine for Growth of the Indian Economy – 40 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

Hence

the

Indian

Economy

heavily

needs

manufacturing sector as it has huge potential to create jobs for India‘s huge labor-force, cushioning India from the effects of downturn in the Economy and helping Indian Economy in lowering CAD by manufacturing goods which are inelastic in nature and has a world demand for it. Although in the year 2011, “National Manufacturing Policy” was enforced with the aim of accelerating the share of GDP to 25% within a decade and creating 100 million jobs but looking at the trend of its (Manufacturing Sector) performance in the above graph since 2011, things


seems mirage to achieve the vision of ‗National

showed an intention to introduce GST by the next

Manufacturing Policy‘. There are various issues in

financial year that will help businesses to deal with

Manufacturing Sector of India which needs to be

tax compliance in an easy manner. Infact, there was a

redressed as soon as possible like labor-related issues,

study conducted by ‗National Council of Applied

complex and cumbersome regulatory framework,

Economic Research‘ which says that introduction of

multiple land acquisition policies and environmental

GST will bring estimated gains of 0.9% to 1.7% of

clearances which creates bottlenecks for this sector to

GDP for the Economy and similar gains for

grow and flourish. Although, Goldar (2013) believes

Manufacturing and other sectors. Further, this budget

that the ratio of students to population has been

has also addressed the issue of skills in the

increasing from 20.5% in 1993-94 to 24.3% in 2004-

Manufacturing Sector. ‗Skill India‘ will be launched

05 to 26.6% in 2009-10 which is a welcoming sign for

to skill the youth that will make them employable and

National Manufacturing Policy but simultaneously he

ignite entrepreneurial skills in them. But the budget

is also pessimistic as the study conducted by ICRA

has not addressed the issues of environmental

Management Consultancy Services Ltd. for the FICCI

clearances and other issues which need to be

suggested that only 25% would be college educated

addressed in the next Union Budget for the thriving

and highly skilled labor among the targeted 500

Manufacturing Sector.

million skilled labor by 2022 (a vision of the UPA Government). Policy‘

Hence,

requires

‗National

proper

2. Creating Breakthrough in Agriculture -

Manufacturing

framework

for

its

India is an agrarian Economy. This is the only Sector which employs 54.6% of total population of the

implementation.

country (Source: Centre for Budget and Governance The Union Budget 2014-15 have recognized the fact that there is a need to revive growth in the

Accountability). But Post-reform, as the time passed, this sector is encountering delinquency and disdain. Himanshu (2008) says that the crisis in Indian agriculture has been brewing up ever since 1996-97. Paul Sharma (2007) believes that the main reason for downward shift in agricultural growth is declining investment agriculture),

(especially R&D,

public

irrigation,

investment combined

in with

inefficiency of institutions in providing the inputs and services (inclusive of rural credit and extension). In the below graph, we can see that in the financial year 2010, marginal growth did picked up but the number hovered around 13-14% till financial year 2013-14. The growth is stagnant in this Sector from the last two Manufacturing

Sector.

41 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

Therefore,

Government


financial years at 13.94% which is less than

prime issues related to Agriculture especially Climate

Manufacturing Sector.

Change and address those in near future for the proper

Agriculture has tremendous potential in reviving the Economy and helping India in curbing poverty. In the year 2007, Waynad, a district in Kerala had been struggling with poverty and lower prices as a result of which the productivity of these farmers decreased. The entry of Reliance Fresh brought new hopes to them which had helped these farmers to uplift themselves from Poverty. Reliance Fresh directly came to these farmers, bought the agricultural goods from them with better prices and weakened the hold of middle-men. Such an example shows that other than Government, private sectors can easily contribute in curbing poverty with the help of Agriculture by linking producers of this Sector to the Market. Government should encourage private players to invest in agriculture by creating business opportunity in this Sector. Agriculture Sector also acts as a source of raw material for other sectors to function.

growth and survival of all the stakeholders in this Sector. Conclusion Given the time constraint, Government did tried its level best to address the key issues that had been haunting India for many months. India will grow if it constructs policies which are productive in nature with no policy paralysis, proper monitoring of the use of funds, social welfare schemes are not corroded with corruption, no more scams which happened under UPA Government, speedy implementation of all the policies, and clearing bottlenecks that is plaguing different sectors of the Indian Economy. As Mr. Kaushik Basu, Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist at ‗The World Bank‘ said, “Trust, Honesty, Integrity and Contracts are four pillars of a successful Economy.” We have also seen that it is too risky to depend on one sector as an engine of growth

Although, the Union Budget 2014-15 has proposed to

and the repercussion of that has already been felt with

establish Agriculture and Horticulture Research

the rate our Economy was performing post-US-

Institutes, creation of Infrastructure fund, creation of

recession. Hence it is very important that Government

Long-term Rural Credit Fund with NABARD,

should equally concentrate on Agriculture and

intention of bringing Second Green Revolution, etc,

Manufacturing Sector which has tremendous potential

there has been no budget allocation been made for

to revolutionize our Economy that can give challenge

ensuring Income Security for farmers given the fact

to hegemony existing in the Global Economy.

that there has been announcement by the Indian Metrological Department that because of El Nino effect, there is an expectation of shortage of rainfall this year. Climate change is a big issue in this Sector that has also been mentioned in Mr. Jaitley‘s budget speech 2014-15 but little has been done this year to address this issue. Hence Government should take 42 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4


Analysis

Impact of Change in FDI Caps

- Rahul Mishra, IBS Hyderabad

The recent Indian Budget proposed an increase in the

individuals. This will also encourage individuals to go

FDI cap from 26% to 49% in the insurance sector

for more long-term savings plans (including insurance

which is taken up as a welcome move by the industry

plans), that will provide funds for long term

and should bring in the much required long-term

infrastructure projects.

capital for the insurance sector. It will also bring in domain capital which is of critical importance in this phase of growth of life insurance industry. It is being said that 49 per cent FDI will be allowed only in cases where management control remains with Indian promoters. Also, it will be allowed only through the approval route, which means, the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) must allow it; but, FDI up to

Insurance Amendment Bill will be taken up by the parliament for consideration which is a positive step as laws which are outdated should be revised and implemented but, that too should be done as soon as possible. Government wants to ensure that insurance reaches poor people. It is a positive step considering the fact that India is underinsured and underpenetrated but, one needs to watch out how it is going to be done.

26 per cent, however, will be allowed through the automatic route, requiring no FIPB.

Insurance being a Capital intensive industry, the hike would provide a significant opportunity for greater

The 49 per cent FDI will be a composite cap, which means foreign capital can flow in either as direct investment or via the portfolio route, or as a combination of both. As per SEBI rules, portfolio investment cannot be more than 24 per cent in a listed

penetration as well as product innovation suiting the needs of a larger number of the population. The rapid growth is expected in the health insurance segment since the penetration of health insurance is extremely low and healthcare expenditure continues to go up.

company, on the other hand, this can be raised up to the limit set for the sector after getting shareholder approval. Once change in FDI cap for Insurance sector is approved by Parliament, it will have direct impact on the pension sector. Since, Pension Act clearly prescribes that FDI limit would be at par with the insurance sector,this means FDI in pension will also be 49 per cent.

Currently the Life Insurance penetration is low at 3.96 percent and this change in FDI to 49% is likely to supply the needed capital to grow insurance business in India and help boost the Insurance penetration. Since, its opening up in 2000, the number of players in the insurance sector has gone up from seven to 53 as on March 31, 2014, operating in the life, non-life, and re-insurance segments. The government's move

On the personal tax front, the increase in personal Income Tax limit from 2 lakh to Rs 2.5 lakh and

will also be a boost to the existing insurers, who are desperately looking for funds to expand.

increase in threshold of exemption under 80C investment cap from Rs 1 lakh to Rs 1.5 lakh will put more disposable income in the hands of the

The

Indian

Budget

also

announced the

government‘s policy of allowing 49%

new

FDI in the

defence sector. Whether this will accelerate the 43 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4


process of giving the control to domestic players of

Group, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra and

the defence sector and create the way to greater self-

Ashok Leyland manufacture locally. Over 70 per cent

reliance, or whether it will compromise India‘s

of the defence equipment needs are met through

national security, remains to be seen.

imports. A large number of the smaller Indian

India currently imports 70% of its defence equipment. Given this worrying and entirely undesirable statistic, it is expected that the increase in FDI from 26% to 49% shall help bridge the gap. Earlier this year, it was reported that the Army is terribly short of ammunition with barely 50% of the required war wastage reserves. This basically meant that India can barely last

companies are unable to compete with foreign companies when it comes to pricing and technological capabilities. But things are likely to change going forward with the government coming out with the defence procurement policy last year which laid emphasis on indigenous development and self reliance in defence production.

fortnight in a war before it runs out of ammunition.

To sum it up, we can say that there is no short-cut to

Stories like these reinforce the idea that defence

obtain technology, but, doing it on your own. Foreign

manufacturing and production in India are in need of

companies will hand us over only dated technology,

a boost and that it is high time that India starts

which would anyway be available in the open market.

creating or at least tries for a strong supply line for its

The government has done the right thing in restricting

defence sector.

FDI in defence to 49%. It must instead encourage the

The hike will allow foreign players to enter the Indian market, and with their entry the DRDO and Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) companies that hitherto enjoyed a monopoly in the Indian domestic defence sector will be on their toes. The influx of foreign players may lead the DRDO to have a greater impetus to perform, in order to retain its exalted status in the Indian defence research and development sector. This is probably the only way that the cause of developing purely ‗indigenous‘ technology can be furthered. Is the hike in FDI would affect India‘s relations with its neighbors‘? The answer is ―No‖, it will not, because, for starters, the FDI to flow in would take time. Thus, it does not create any immediate crisis. To tell about the current scenario; the role of the private sector is still very small in India's defence sector. Only a few large players such as the Tata 44 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

local private sector to partner with government research bodies like DRDO.


Opinion

Fiscal Consolidation in India

- Apoorva Anusha, IBS Hyderabad

To come with his decision of urgent need to generate

at 4.1% and saw the fiscal deficit for next year at

more

3.6% and down to 3% in 2016-17.

resources

he

announced

to

reduce

the

expenditure on subsidies as it‘s a major portion of government expenditure and has witnessed major expansion in the recent past. Of the overall subsidies, the subsidy on petroleum, fertilizer and food make up

It was planned in 2012-13 to contain subsidies within 2% of the GDP. But due to the depreciation of rupee value and increase in oil prices in international market the subsidies are subjected to rise to 2.6% of GDP.

more than 90%. A subsidy amount or deficit is always presented in This is nothing but the FISCAL CONSOLIDATION which means creation of strategies that are aimed at minimizing

deficits

along

with

curtailing

the

aggregation of more debt. The goal of fiscal

relation with GDP because GDP means the national income and may be it subsidy, deficit or any other economic expenditure it will be in context to the total earning of a country.

consolidation in any setting is to improve financial stability by creating a more desirable financial position.

In this budget the government has increased subsidies on foods as it‘s the assumption that even with the reduced budgetary allocation it is possible to leverage

It focuses on eliminating debt carried by the jurisdiction but it can also be made practical by the efforts of business or even by reducing the debts of households

while

simultaneously

limiting

the

full benefits by proper targeting of subsidies. This level of correction is not only desirable to ensure the right environment for economic growth buts it is also achievable.

generation of new indebtedness. This means doing everything to fix the fiscal deficit problem in its root and preventing it from occurring in future.

In the budget speech, early, Mr. Jeitley said that the country would stick to previous government‘s fiscal deficit target of 4.1% of the GDP year ending March

There are several ways, depending upon the situation, which

might

help

in

decreasing

government

expenditure and increasing the government revenue in diminution of fiscal deficit of the country. It can be done by cutting down the subsidies or stop the leakages in it. Reforming the tax structure will also

2015 and later he said that it stood 4.5% in the passing reference. Its very much possible that finance minister might have misspoken. This statement is not going to affect the stock market but this contradiction has created confusion in the minds of the traders as the export and import is affected.

help in increasing the revenue over expenditure. Inflation pressure is expected to crucify. Activities The union budget 2014-15 contains policy to curtail down the fiscal deficit because the finance minister himself feels the need to reduce the expenditure. He announced the he was retaining the fiscal deficit target 45 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

remain substantially below potential output in advanced economies, where it is often close to or


somewhat below potential in emerging market and

There was a report given by International Monetary

developing economies.

Fund which stated that the authorities have committed

In year 2003-04 the financial deficit of the country was 10% of GDP which was virtually at the same level as it was in 1991, when India plunged in to crises. The fiscal situation was going out of hand, expenditure was going up where the productiveness of revenue was very low. What so ever was the reason but an immediate action was compelled to be taken to bring it down. In the year 2003-04 the revenue was Rs2.63 trillion were as the total interest payment due was Rs3.91 trillion, which was the case of internal debt trap. For this in the year 2003 fiscal responsibility and budget management act was

for fiscal consolidation by meeting the budget deficit target of 2012-13 despite the slowing economy. The Indian government has taken a notable step by representing the largest food security program in the world which involves the distribution of subsidised grain to two third of India‘s population that is 1.2 billion people. For this fiscal year 2014-15 in addition to the announced methods to rationalise non planned expenditure they target is expected to be met by acquiring agencies to give up un-utilized spending allocation rather than releasing further budgeted amount to these agencies.

passed. The FRBM act 2003 is an act of the

The recently-passed Food Security Act—which aims

parliament of India to institutionalise financial

to provide subsidized rice, wheat and coarse cereals to

discipline, reduce India‘s fiscal deficit, and improve

67% of the population is expected to add significantly

macroeconomic

overall

to the fiscal subsidy burden going forward . The

management of the public funds by moving towards a

efforts should be made to convert these subsidies to a

balanced budget. The act provided that the central

system of targeted, as early as possible.

management

and

the

government shall not borrow funds from the RBI except under exceptional circumstances where there is temporary shortage of cash in particular financial year. The main purpose was to eliminate revenue deficit of the country and bring down the fiscal deficit to a manageable 3% of the GDP by March 2008, but due to financial crises in 2007 it was postponed in 2009. The commodity prices in U.S Dollar terms are projected to ease a bit further partially reflecting the path implied by commodity future price. For some specific case of oil prices, forecasts differ depending on the underlying approach. Due to this the fiscal deficit of 10% of GDP in 2003-04 came down to 6.6% in 2009-10. 46 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

According to me a growing fiscal deficit leaves a limited monitory space for lowering interest rates to stimulate private investment and growth. When there is a high fiscal deficit it tends to heighten inflation which reduces the monitory policy stimulus and increases the risk of external sector which leads to muffling

of

private

investment,

growth

and

employment. Talking about the external sector perspective, global trade volume growth has slowed substantially in the adjustment after the global financial crisis of 2007-09.


Markets

The Stock Market Boom

- Ripu Daman Tandon, IBS Hyderabad

The stock markets have shown a pleasant sight to the confidence of the global investors, especially after the recession in 2008, though, in the period of 2010, the global economy seemed to be in the middle of worlds of austerity and stimulus. It was a year where emerging economies in close proximity to China were in place of the World‘s best global indexes (Philippines, Thailand and Peru). On the other hand, due to the European debt crisis, worst performing equity markets was in place by the major markets of Europe (Greece, Spain and Italy). In 2012, the market capitalization rate had recovered with a growth rate of 15.1%. This was the period when the growth in the Americas was mainly driven by US exchanges that increased by 19% while in Canada witnessed growth slightly less than 8%. However, the world economy continued to face subdued growth till the year 2013. As per World Federation

of

Exchanges,

Global

Marketing

Highlights 2013, the global market capitalization continued to increase significantly with a 17.4% growth rate at US $64 trillion. While the growth rate of 22% was witnessed in the Americas and EAME (Europe, Africa and Middle East), the growth rate was slightly lesser in the Asia-Pacific region at 7%. The total number of IPO‘s increased by 2% globally and also the investment flows were increased by 34% in the year 2013. It was a year, where Global average value of trades rose by 7%.

47 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4


The Indian business optimism has been the highest since 2010. With a change in policy makers and a stable government, the investor‘s confidence levels have received a boost. The International Monetary Fund has retained the forecast of the growth rate of 5.4% for the Indian Economy in 2015 and stronger for the next year at 6.4%. After recovering in 2009-10 and 2010-11, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slowed down to decade‘s low of 4.5% in the year 2012-13.

As per the measures taken by the new

government, could improve the investment climate and improve governance and push growth to 7-8% in the coming years. Few of the biggest challenges that the current government faces are to revive business sentiments among the investors, restoration of macroeconomic balance and enhancing efficiency. The

Government

has

also

moved

up

its

disinvestments plans from few of the state run firms and that is likely to time the India‘s ballooning fiscal deficit and giving a boost to the economic growth. Even though with the mixed responses towards the budget 2014, the FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) are still betting on the long-term India story.

48 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4


Out of the Box

Populism Breaking Our Economy

- Sainath Zunjurwad, Sydenham Institute of Management Studies, Research and Entrepreneurship Education, Mumbai

doctrine that appeals to the interests and conceptions (such as fears) of the general people, especially contrasting those interests with the interests of the elite.‖ When you consider this definition, one is tempted to side with it, after all the current world is championing Democracy. And what is democracy but a populist notion? But the issue is not so superficial. For, though in a democracy the people‘s ultimate right is

incontrovertible,

there

are

many

ways

of

interpreting how it is asserted. The most obvious ones being the parliamentary or the presidential systems. The other side of the story is that populism exists in India is a country as diverse as it gets. There is a place for every sort of ‗ism‘ under the Indian sun. The Left, the Right, the Socialist, the Communist, and the Democrat everybody has a little piece of heaven in this country. Populism! The crowning jewel among them all (the evilest one, if you will), surely won‘t be far away?

democracies as well as the myriads of dictatorships and socialist and communist set ups. Conclusion? Populism is pervasive. From the right to the left, across the entire political spectrum it thrives. The first question is –―Is it good or bad?‖ For its advocates populism has obvious benefits, but then so does its opponents cite equally obvious harms. The issue is

Let us get down to the brass tacks . What is populism?

thorny one. However the consensus is on the side of

According to the dictionary, ―Populism is a political

the opponents.

49 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4


protests. The tempo starts increasing

and

government

the becomes

increasingly cornered. The prudent in the government advocate

caution,

advise

tougher

stances,

and

austerity.

Others

advise

opening the tap full throttle and shower the nation with subsidies, import quotas and Populism takes many forms in a state. But its most

other freebies that the government can ill afford. The

noteworthy manifestation can be seen in the economic

struggle mounts, and little by little the prudent are

policies of the state. That is where the state holds

edged out. The government gives in, and does all it

unparalleled authority and power. The government of

must not do. It borrows from international markets at

the day is always interested in painting a rosy picture

increasing cost, and a time comes when the

of the economy. More so in an election year. The

government‘s finances spiral out control, as was seen

economy goes through cyclic phases – expansion,

in the 1991 economic crisis of ―Balance of

peak, recession, and trough. This is well established.

Payments‖. This is populism at its best (or is it the

An expansion must follow a trough, it‘s an economic

worst?). This has been seen all over the world. It

certainty. However, the durations and intensities of

breaks the backbone of the economy. And when you

these phases are not so easily predicted. And even if

don‘t have a Man Mohan Singh to bail you out, its

they could be, the pain of going through a recession

impacts reverberate across decades.

cannot still be eliminated. The boom times bring out the ‗good‘ in people, the recessions the worst. How can a government scrape through a recessionary or inflationary period, when emotions are running high? It has few avenues for exploration. It is constrained when it comes to managing the government‘s account. The receipts are drying up, but its payments are not, in fact they are soaring. With domestic funds becoming scarce, it has to do a fine balancing act between its ‗credit‘ and ‗debit‘ accounts. People start feeling the pinch and the unease starts building up in the country. There are indications of, early signs of mounting 50 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

When successive Railways ministers do not increase rail fares for more than 20 years, under intense pressure from the public and others, they are creating a price distortion. The money, if it doesn‘t come directly from the pockets of the commuters, comes from the government treasury, hence indirectly from the taxes paid by these same commuters. The full price has to be paid. One way or the other. There are no free lunches. What‘s the upshot? With money barely to prop up the Railways, there is nothing left for the development and integration of modern technology into the services. The service remains the


same, and continues to deteriorate. The life of the

word) the domestic industry forever. It need to buck

commuter ultimately becomes tragic. He has to pay

up and compete with the global companies. The

the price. It is the failure of the ‗representatives‘ who

customers aren‘t forced to pay higher prices,

were elected to safeguard people‘s interests, who give

competitiveness

in to populism, which does no good to anyone and

technology and efficiency. Everybody wins. If you are

ends up hurting everybody. Whereas if these foolish

sick, you need to swallow the bitter pill, to get better.

price control decisions had not been taken, and the price had been allowed to increase gradually (naturally) over the span of 20 years, its effects would have been tolerable for the general public, and there would not have been such a hue and cry over the 100% fare raise (Mumbai locals) as was seen a month or so back. The minister unfortunately had to again roll back the fare raises, with Vidhansabha elections

brings

out

advancements

in

This populism is a manifestation of the human weakness-impatience and an inability to accept the inevitable pain. When we indulge in populism, we do not circumvent the pain, we merely succeed in delaying it. Today‘s problems become tomorrow‘sbut the intensity rises exponentially as we balk at facing the devil today. Future generations are left to pick up the pieces.

looming in several important, large states. Again, a classic case of populism. Inability to withstand public pressure. However, he did push through 14% price

This is a political hot potato. One thing, however, is crystal clear. Populism is inescapable. When you come to think of it, populism is just a form. It is a

rise, thank god for these small mercies.

representation of, manifestation of human frailty. To This analogy can be extended to almost all industries and sectors. The government imposes price ceilings and floors, Minimum Support Price, import duties and quotas, trade restrictions, ill-advised subsidies. Some of these are certainly necessary, justified and help prop up our still embryonic industries. This is the necessary evil, when pandering to the populists is not the wrong way. But good intentions seldom translate into good results. Solid understanding of the needs of the economy, the willpower to stand up to public pressure and push through the right reforms are needed to contain the repercussions of this ‗necessary evil‘. This is where the leaders‘ mettle is tested. Reforms in taxation; defense, insurance, retail, capital markets, financial sector and other industries are long overdue.

Any

postponements

only

delay

the

inevitable. You cannot ‗protect‘ (if that‘s the right 51 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

forego long run benefits, in pursuit of momentary happiness. It is as old as the hills. We have to live with it, and make peace with it, we can strive to contain it. It will rear its ugly head time and again, but we must prevent it.


Industry Update

Airline Industry

- Sameena Usman, IBS Hyderabad

Let‘s have a peek at our ‗hawayi adda friends‘! To be

increased payments for fuel and aircraft rentals) are

precise, the Indian airways sector is having a roller

placing further pressure on margins. As a result, the

coaster ride with a set of highs and lows. Do you want

nation‘s airlines are seeing a sharp increase in their

the bad or the good first?!! Well, let‘s save the treat

cost base at a time when yield and unit revenue

for the last and let‘s have a look at the bad first, or the

growth is pressured.

so called losses in the aviation sector of our country.

Jet airways is attempting to rectify this situation

The losses in the aviation industry reflect not only

through a number of measures such as entering into

issues at the individual carriers but some fundamental

sale and leaseback agreements to reduce debt and

and structural challenges in the Indian aviation sector.

interest costs, restructuring their operations and also,

Despite the growth in the domestic market for air

removing their investments from non-core assets. It

travel, the India's airline industry has failed to

set out a three-year restructuring plan focusing on

captivate profits.

cutting down costs and enhancing efficiency. In an

All the major carriers, except few, are making considerable losses, let us cite the example of our very own Jet Airways Ltd , the country's No. 2 airline by market share, also partly owned by the Gulf carrier Etihad Airways.

attempt to turn around its fortunes, it also named Cramer Ball as its fourth chief executive within the span of a year, pending legal documentation. It has no intentions as of now to raise equity and most of its future fund-raising would be in debt, despite the mounting losses.

Abu Dhabi's Etihad, is the first foreign airline to invest in an Indian carrier when it bought a 24 percent stake in Jet last year for around $330 million.

Thus the road to recovery for the nation‘s airline will definitely not be a cake walk, with the heavily indebted

Contrary to its posh exterior history & outlook, Jet airways is actually currently looking at selling planes and restructuring its debts in order to terminate the losses that have been eating off of its profits.

carrier

having

already

accumulated

considerable losses in the last couple of years. But the officials at both Etihad and Jet are optimistic about their heavy efforts and the airline is also reported to have mentioned that it would expand its international

The main reasons for failing to captivate profits are

operations, which are currently profitable, to 63

fuelled by these vital factors such as:-high jet fuel

percent of its business by 2016.

costs (crude oil price constitutes around 40-50% of

Hence the jet airways has it‘s ―wings crossed‖ for a

airline operating costs) compounded by heavy

positive recovery, so let‘s give it a high five in its

taxation, inefficient infrastructure and an inability to

attempt to FlYiNg High !!!...

raise fares in a highly competitive market. In addition, rising debt levels and a depreciating rupee (leading to

Now, moving on to a brighter prospect, Air India‘s alliance with Star Alliance!

52 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4


Moving onto the statistical details, Star Alliance accounts for about a total share of 13 % of India's aviation market. The inclusion of Air India in the alliance will take this share upto about 30 %. Air India officials mentioned that the carrier, with over 400 daily flights to more than 50 domestic and 33 international destinations, hoped to earn a 5-6 percent jump in revenues in the current year itself. So friends, pack your bags & get ready to reap the benefits of Air India‘s star alliance in your next travel trip !. Before moving on to the other stars of Indian air, let‘s have a sneak peek into what the government is up to regarding the aviation sector rules . Two years short of a decade and a real bumpy venture

The first thing that strikes our mind when we see the

before reputed carrier Air India finally gets to join

words ‗‘air‘‘ & ‗‘government‘‘ together is the ‗‘5/20

Star Alliance, the world's largest airline accord. The

‗‘ rule!...so what exactly is this 5/20 rule ?

60 crore fliers of the world's fifth largest aviation

Well, an Indian carrier must be five years old and

market will now gain better global connectivity and

have a fleet of at least 20 planes to fly abroad.

access. But in view of the benefit for various new airline start Air India now gets to share its flying miles and will

ups, a proposal for a new rule has been requested

also enjoy the luxury of the entry into some of the

which states that an Indian carrier, including a start-

world‘s finest airport lounges of the 27 member

up ,would only require the Directorate General of

carriers of the star alliance. Other added advantages,

Civil Aviation's (DGCA) nod to fly abroad.

specially pertaining to passenger convenience include

But the government is sceptical about it and more

single-ticket travel throughout the globe with far less

importantly the federation of Indian airlines has

transit time and no ‗‘waiting hours‘‘- a phrase dreaded

opposed this new rule stating that all the older airlines

by almost anyone who knows the abcd of air travel.

have in the process of fulfilling their obligation

Air India will also be offering through check-in to the

incurred

final destination, i.e. passengers can travel without

operations, it would be unacceptable or injust for the

having to pick checked-in baggage and check them in again at transit airports.

53 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

substantial

losses

through

domestic

government to now consider revising the policy by the removal of the 5/20 rule in order to benefit the


slowly deviated its operations from the major city routes such as Delhi and Mumbai into smaller cities with a growing middle class and a proportionate wealth growth. 70% of their capacity on routes has been shifted to cities such as Srinagar, Pune, Goa, Nagpur and Patna, which are the strongest non-metro catchment areas. We now hit on to Air Asia, which has yet again been awarded the world‘s best low cost airlines in the 2014 world airline awards. The airline in India is operated as a joint venture between Tata sons and Air Asia. A tie up with Tata is actually beneficial for Air Asia since the Tata‘s are well acquainted with the Indian market. Though known for its low cost fares and a consistent growth in the passenger kilometre revenue, Air Asia has faced quite a lot of criticism in terms of low on time performance (OTP) i.e. delayed service ,in layman terms, which has hit as low as below 80% and even below 69% in few carriers. So that basically was a gist of our aviation sector which seems to have a well grinded mixture of both international airlines' joint ventures which are under consideration and approval. Having not much clue about the consequence of this 5/20 dilemma, let‘s now move onto an airlines which is just one plane short of this 5/20 rule, the GoAir airlines!- the country's tiniest low-cost carrier has been slowly eating off big pies of the market share, making huge profits meanwhile. GoAir gained a market share of 10.1% in June, compared to 9.8% in May. This has been achieved as a result of the carrier focusing on non-metro routes apart from the already established metro routes. It has 54 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

negative and positive aspects as well!


International Diplomacy

Impact of the Israel- Gaza Conflict

- Srishti Karmakar, IBS Hyderabad

In April 2014 US-initiated peace talk on the

carrying out welfare work among Palestinians and

Palestinian issue failed. In the June, Hamas and Fatah

gaining popularity, Hamas was involved in violent

reconciled and formed a unity government, ending

strikes against Israelis. After this victory, a conflict

eight years of conflict. Israel saw this unity between

broke out between Fateh and Hamas leading to the

the two major Palestinian factions as a threat.

ouster of the Fatah from Gaza. Hamas became Gaza‘s

Meanwhile, three young Israeli men were kidnapped

ruling party. After Hamas victory in Gaza, Israel

and killed by a West Bank Palestinian family. Israel

imposed a land, air and sea blockade in 2007,

claimed this was Hama‘s work, although Hamas

controlling the flow of the essentials and regulating

denied it. Israel carried out mass arrest of Palestinian

entry and exit of Palestinian workers. Export of

and ratcheted up pressure. Hamas responded with

produce was stopped and electricity supply cut. Gaza

rockets. At least 754 rockets have already hit Israel.

went into poverty due to the blockade. It became

Israel got the pretext to strike back. Till August 1,

largely dependent on international aid channelized

2014, more than 1500 Palestinian, Israeli soldiers

through UN and smuggling through tunnels. But the

three civilians have died and 8200 injured. On the 1st

UN aid also had to be cleared by Israel and about

of this month, a tense ceasefire had been imposed in

$100 million worth of aid is blocked because of 10

Gaza after Israel and Hamas agreed to a 72-hours

month delay in clearance by Israel, according to a

pause in their three week conflict. But the truce

recent UN statement. Angered at the blockade, Hamas

brokered by the US and UN was breached within two

began to fire rockets at Israel regularly. The Israel

hour and shelling resumed in the battered Gaza. The

retaliated and attacked Gaza.

death toll in Gaza had touched the 1500 mark making it the deadliest Israeli assault since its 1967 occupation of Palestinian territories. Nearly one fourth of Gaza‘s 1.8 million people are now displaced and Israel has control over about 44% of Gaza‘s area.

The war raged for the past two weeks have had economic cost for both Israel and Gaza. 0.2% of GDP is the estimated fiscal cost incurred by Israel and if the conflict continues for long then this percentage will increase further. The tourism industry and small-sized

Under the 1993 Oslo Accords between the Palestine

firm of Israel will be adversely affected if the conflict

Liberalization Organization (PLO) and Israel, a

continues.

Palestinian National Authority(PNA) was set up to govern Palestinian areas of West Bank and Gaza. In 2005 Israel withdrew its forces and settler from Gaza. In 2006, the first Palestinian government was elected. While the main Palestinian group Fateh won in West Bank, radical Islamic Hamas won in Gaza. Hama had its origins in Egypt‘s Muslim Brotherhood. While 55 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

The Bank of Israel cut the benchmark interest rate for August by 0.25 percentage point to 0.50%, citing slow inflation in June and weakness in export in the world economy. Export, a cornerstone of Israel‘s economy, declined 9% in the second quarter, he bank said. All of this data is from before the recent conflict began.


The conflict has mainly affected tourism and private

fourth largest exporter of arms in the world. On

consumption, according to Israeli economists. Events

August 1st US stock market saw a decline due to the

of similar magnitude in the past decade had a

large sell off. This was due to the uncertainty in the

moderate macroeconomic impact, up to about 0.5% of

market partially added by the violence between Israel

GDP. Before the conflict the central bank was

and Gaza. US had also opened up its secretive

expecting GDP to expand to 2.9% in 2014.

stockpile of arms and ammunition located within

Israeli economy has shrugged off the increased political risk, as evidenced by resiliency in the international bond market, the stock market and the

Israel to replenish their firepower after 24 days of land sea and water strikes. This has added fuel to the much needed fuel in US economy.

foreign exchange business. The war has small impact.

The effect of this conflict will be on the industries and

It can have a permanent impact if it happens at a time

exports, mainly. Major goods exported by Israel are

the economy is depressed but Israeli economy is not

high

depressed. The ultimate effect depends on how long

equipment,

this is going to last.

mechanical

The previous conflicts had only modest and temporary economic impact as the country has significant shock absorbers. Those include a current account surplus which it produced offshore natural gas and used it to displace imported crude oil in its electricity sector. But this war in particular in 23 years has seen a potential threat on the centre of the economic activity including the airport. On July 25th US flights resumed to Israel after US Federal Aviation

technology

products,

telecommunications

military equipment, machinery

and

pharmaceuticals,

machinery

based

equipment, cut diamonds and jewelry, agricultural products and foodstuffs, chemicals, textiles and apparel. But the major price rise may be seen in diamond and jewelry as Israel is one of the world's three major centers for polished diamonds, alongside Belgium and India. In case of Gaza it exports are 2% of what they had before the blockade and they are dependent on the economy of smuggling through the tunnels which Israel has started destroying.

Administration lifted a ban imposed when a rocket

It all depends on how long this episode of conflict

landed near Tel Aviv airport.

lasts. As these events have been happening in

US have a major role in this conflict. Apart from peace talk that US initiated peace, it sends aid to Israel and also ammunition for defense. Israel is the single largest recipient of US assistance having received over $121 billion since its formation in 1948. Of this $70 billion is pure military assistance. In 2014 the US has provided for $3.1 billion assistance and $504 million for research and development of various anti missile system. Israel itself has now become the 56 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

irregular intervals like in 2012 and before that in 2008, the economy has become resistant to the changes caused and can immediately adjust to it.


Vriddhi Research’s Corner

Company in Focus: Allahabad Bank

- Anurag Jain, IBS Hyderabad

Industry- Banking Market Price- Rs. 120 Market Cap (Rs. Cr.)- 6,600

Key Strengths of the Banking Sector India is considered to be among the top economies in the world, with tremendous potential for its banking sector. The last decade witnessed a significant upsurge in transactions through ATMs, as well as in internet and mobile banking services.

Allahabad bank is established in April, 24 1865 at Allahabad.

Presently

Allahabad

bank

is

head

The country's banking industry is set for a greater

quartered at Kolkata having a employee base of

transformation, with the Indian Parliament passing the

around 25000. Allahabad bank is present in all kinds

Banking Laws (Amendment) Bill in 2012, the

of banking services and it is growing tremendously

landscape of the sector has duly changed. The bill

under the leadership of Mr. Rakesh sethi.

allows the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to make final

Share Holding Pattern of Allahabad Bank:

guidelines on issuing new licenses, which would lead to a greater number of banks in the country. The style

Allahabad bank has more than 70% holding of

of operation is also slowly evolving with the

Government of India. As per new budget guidelines

integration of modern technology in the banking

for capital requirements of Public sector bank

industry.

Government could dilute stakes and more liquidity in the stock we could see in the stock.

Opportunities in the Banking Sector: Advances of Allahabad Bank: In the next 5-10 years, the sector is expected to create two million new jobs driven by the efforts of the RBI

Allahabad bank has largest exposure in agriculture

and the Government of India to expand financial

sector so with elnino is major cause of concern for the

services into rural areas. Two new banks have already

Allahabad bank. But CMD has assured against such

received licences from the government (IDFC and

risk and said bank is having strong balance sheet. In

Bandhan Financial Services), and the RBI's new

the quarter results we have also seen the impact there

norms will offer incentives to banks to spot bad loans

was very high provisions against substandard and

and take necessary recourse to curb the practices of

losses assets. That is why Allahabad bank net profit

rogue borrowers.

down by73% on year on year basis.

History of Allahabad Bank:

57 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4


But as stressed assets from balance sheet of Allahabad bank get reduced we could see good days ahead for Allahabad bank. Cost of borrowings of Allahabad Bank: Cost of deposit for Allahabad bank is as per industry

Bank Name IDBI Bank Union Bank Uco Bank Oriental Bank Central Bank IOB Allahabad Bank

P\E 10.54 6.37 7.16 7.46 0 21.57 5.03

P\Bv 0.54 0.7 0.98 0.67 0.88 0.55 0.4

standard of around 7.5% and Net interest margin is comparable to its peers of around 2.6%. But Allahabad bank has to be more competitive in his NIM so that he could touch private sector banks NIM which is around 3-3.5%. Economic Reason to Buy this Stock in Your Portfolio• It is expected that economic cycle has turn around and credit growth is expected in the economy. • With the technology intervention in the banking industry now NPA are considered to be recognised fastly and in psb like this could gain tremendously. • As we are entering again growth phase NPA cycle will bottom down and banking stock is expected to boom. • Graphs are showing that they are forming support level at around 120 levels and resistance is around 150 levels • Bollinger band is also showing that it is right time to enter the stock. From the relative valuation we could see that – • Allahabad bank is highly undervalued. And It needs proper correction of the stock price. • Its p/bv is showing it is cheapest stocks in its peers.

58 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

Final Recommendation: I recommend to BUY the stock with target price at INR 150 for short time period and target price of INR 250 for longer term perspective.


The IBS Times is an academic print and is not for any commercial sale. Reliability and Responsibility for sources of data for the articles vests with the respective authors. Please feel free to drop in your suggestions or any feedback at editor.ibstimes@gmail.com Š IBS Times – FinStreet, The Official Capital Markets Club of IBS Hyderabad. All Rights Reserved

59 | A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

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The IBS Times- August 2014  

We at FinStreet present to the August 2014 edition of The IBS Times. This Special Edition of The IBS Times covers analysis on several contem...

The IBS Times- August 2014  

We at FinStreet present to the August 2014 edition of The IBS Times. This Special Edition of The IBS Times covers analysis on several contem...

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