The Fine Art Group Global Art Market Report 2023 - 2024

GLOBAL ART MARKET REVIEW

2023 - 2024

ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT TODAY’S ART MARKET

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FOREWORD

We’re pleased to review another incredible year for The Fine Art Group with many significant milestones. The expansion of the company, particularly through our collaboration with industry stalwarts Tad Smith, former CEO of Sotheby’s, and Domenico de Sole, former Chairman of Sotheby’s and Chairman of Tom Ford, has been a defining moment in our growth.

2023 was a testament to our commitment to excellence. Despite the uncertainties that surrounded us, we embraced change and emerged stronger than ever. Our team’s dedication and hard work have been the driving force behind our success, and we extend our deepest gratitude to each and every member of The Fine Art Group family.

Our joint venture with Patti Wong and the launch of Patti Wong & Associates has proven to be an unequivocal success. Our collective expertise has not only strengthened our market presence but has also strengthened our position within the art and fine jewelry worlds.

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Looking ahead to 2024, the prospects for The Fine Art Group are brighter than ever. The momentum we’ve gained in the past year provides a solid foundation for our future growth and expansion.

The report that follows provides everything you need to know about recent developments in the international art market. We trust you will find plenty of insight and fresh, engaging analysis.

As ever, we look forward to working with you in the months to come.

Philip Hoffman CEO & FOUNDER

Anita Heriot PRESIDENT, AMERICAS

INTRODUCTION CONFIDENTIAL

The art market is always a complex and changeable environment, but especially so in the context of challenging geopolitical and macroeconomic developments. As our report demonstrates, appearances are frequently deceiving and careful navigation is required. It pays, therefore, to work with art advisors known for deep specialist expertise and commercial acumen. At The Fine Art Group, we pride ourselves on clear-eyed analysis and impartial advice for our clients. Our report offers further insight into our approach and fascinating details from the international art market over the past year.

Despite significant economic headwinds, the international art market showed surprising resilience throughout 2023, even if most participants agree it was a challenging year in which to conduct business. War in Europe and the Middle East, high interest rates, an inflationary environment, stagnant economies among the G7 and a slowing Chinese economy, undermined confidence and spending power. As such, 2023 represented a marked cooling from the recent post-pandemic peaks seen in 2021 and 2022.

This analysis is supported by several telling statistics. For one, the overall value of auction sales above $1 million contracted by 29.5% in the first half of 2023. This was mainly driven by a decline at the top end of the market, with fewer lots selling above $20 million as a consequence of lesser supply in this segment. In this uncertain context, New York remains the epicentre of the international art trade: auctions of post-war and contemporary art in the city accounted for 72.3% of global volume at Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Phillips in 2023.

Anecdotal consensus suggests the year ahead will be broadly flat for the global art market, without significant variation on performance in 2023. This further aligns with a wider trend over the past decade, suggesting that meaningful growth of the international art market remains elusive. Over the past ten years, the market’s overall value has effectively flatlined, oscillating within a narrow band of $58 - 68 billion per year, according to the annual Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report.

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Even without significant growth in 2024, there is hope that the worst of the current market correction is behind us, having reached the most recent trough sometime around the middle of last year. In part, this reflects the relative success of many central banks in curbing inflationary forces with higher interest rates and other measures. Consequently, we might expect a noticeable return of art market confidence towards the end of 2024. Although this will also depend heavily on the possible outcome of more acute geopolitical developments.

The following report provides detailed discussion of headline developments throughout 2023. In the auction round-up, Charlie Wood (Director, Art Advisory) addresses the nuanced picture emerging from recent auction performance with a granular analysis of sale categories. Although the unavoidable conclusion is a market correction, the devil is in the detail, with increasing volumes in some sectors and new, younger bidders entering the market successfully nurtured by the gateway auctions of luxury and collectibles. Single owner sales play an especially prominent role in the race for market share and control of the publicity narrative. In a softening market, winning this business can prove costly for the auction houses. It remains unclear whether securing a major collection at such high cost is net positive in the long run. 5

Expanding upon similar issues, Guy Jennings (Senior Director, Art Advisory) reviews the performance of the Impressionist and Post-Impressionist market in 2023. Following a peak in 2022 with the voluminous $1.5 billion Paul Allen sale, the sale category notably lacked “trophy” works to drive higher values the following year. As Guy argues, this is no fault of the market, but simply a reflection of the ever-constricting supply of fresh and important works for sale. As with old master pictures, the Impressionist and Post-Impressionist segment is marked by the slow, inevitable transition of consequential works from private hands to permanent homes in institutional collections.

Dynamics of supply and demand in the art market can move in mysterious ways, notably so when an artist dies. Dismantling the mercantile curiosity known as the Death Effect, Martin Schlombs (Associate, Art Advisory) probes the market myth that an artist’s prices increase following their demise. With compelling graphical analysis, Martin discusses historical auction performance for some of the stars of today’s art market: Jean-Michel Basquiat, Carmen Herrera, Robert Ryman and Matthew Wong. As with wider auction performance in 2023, all is not what it seems.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, the market for Young Contemporary artists (under 45) overheated dramatically in 2022, with an unsurprising and dramatic contraction in 2023. Navigating these choppy waters is fraught with financial risk but some criteria can be reliably used as a guide to an artist’s longevity. Zhanna Ter-Zakaryan (Associate, Art Advisory) examines the importance of gallery support, institutional presence and critical commentary when considering an acquisition by a younger artist. In a volatile environment with rapidly moving prices, it pays to slow down, research and take advice from professionals.

Finally, we review notable developments in the commercial gallery landscape. Henry Little (Senior Consultant) reviews recent real estate moves to gauge the prevailing sentiment and determine dealer confidence. Despite private reports of a marked slowdown in value and volume broadly comparable with those observable shifts in the auction market, art dealers seem widely braced for another difficult year with a sense of acceptance and resolution.

TOP 10 MOST EXPENSIVE WORKS SOLD 2023

Henri Rousseau, Les Flamants, 1910

Sold for: $43.5 million Premium

When: May 11, 2023

Where: Christie's, New York

LOOKING FORWARD PREDICTIONS FOR 2024

The global fine art auction market will remain broadly flat year-on-year.

uarantees will remain a key business tool for auction houses but will be more cautiously applied.

o single owner sales exceeding $500 million will be brought to market.

he market for Young Contemporary artists will grow in volume but shrink in

uxury and collectible categories at the biggest auction houses will increase in alue year-on-year.

he gap between annual auction values in Paris and London will narrow further.

eal estate expansion in the commercial gallery sector will slow as new lease egotiations come to reflect tougher market conditions.

uyer confidence will remain depressed until there is greater clarity on the merican presidential elections, and the ongoing conflicts in Palestine and Ukraine.

ajor new application for AI in the art market will be announced.

n international museum will return a famous object(s) from their collection as art of ongoing decolonisation efforts.

AUCTION REVIEW 1.

Sold for: $44.8 million Premium

When: March 1, 2023

Where: Sotheby's, London 9

1.1 INTRODUCTION

Superficially, the undeniable conclusion of the 2023 auction market is one of correction. Indeed, the auction results for Old Masters, Impressionist, Modern, Post-War and Contemporary Art at Sotheby’s, Christie’s, and Phillips, were down 27% from 2022 and 12% down from 2021, with a final total of $5.74 billion for 2023.

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Yet 2023 merits closer review beyond a statistical drop of value in the Fine Art category. Against the background of global economic and geo-political instability, this annual total remains 5.8% higher than pre-pandemic 2019 totals. Exploration of the success (or not) of this year’s single owner sales, regional market shifts and individual auction categories reveals expert, strategic sales management in challenging circumstances. Greater risk absorbed by the auction houses, next-gen buyers entering the market and increased overall sales volume and sale categories, uncovers greater market resilience than previously experienced in times of economic turmoil.

Reviewing global auction sales, the overall macro perspective over the last eight years reveals that 2023 totals are comfortably in the middle, above numbers from 2016, 2019 and 2020. Before 2022, the last major art market peak was 2018, with a total $12.33 billion in global auction sales, $835 million of which was the landmark Rockefeller sale. 2023 global auction sales are only 9% below this at $11.16 billion. Against this wider context and more recently, two consecutive boom years, 2023 instead can be viewed as a natural and necessary decline from a period of unprecedented and unsustainable price points.

Wassily Kandinsky, Murnau mit Kirche II (Murnau with Church II), 1910

estates and collections. In 2022 Christie’s emerged as the leading auction house, entirely due to the $1.5 billion Paul Allen sale. This year, however, Sotheby’s won the lion’s share of single owner property which propelled the auction house into pole position. No doubt the increase of 1% in buyer’s premium in February, a move which Phillips followed but Christie’s did not, will have assisted in boosting these figures. Despite these general totals, enhanced hammer deals and bullish guarantees affect profitability, and a question mark remains over true overarching success. In 2022, New York City Council changed auction industry regulations. Auction houses no longer have to record prices net of fixed fees on guaranteed lots sold to the third-party guarantors. Throughout 2023, Sotheby’s continued to report prices net of fixed fees whereas Christie’s and Phillips have reverted to reporting final prices as the Hammer Price plus Buyer’s Premium, which will have had an overall impact on their final reporting figures, where in some instances final prices are $500,000 below the all-in buyer’s premium numbers.

Global Auction Sales

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Most notable outside these numbers, where margins for the auction houses are significantly higher, are private sales. Both Christie’s and Sotheby’s reported a total of $1.2 billion in private sales, an increase from 2022 all-round. Notably, the highest value lot sold by Christie’s this year was through the private sales vehicle. Unconfirmed by the auction house but widely reported in the market, through a discreet closed auction, Mark Rothko’s No.6 (Violet, Green and Red) (1951), sold in December 2023 for $185 million. Market followers believe mega collector Ken Griffin to be the buyer.

Phillips totaled $840.7 million in auction sales in 2023, a 15% decrease from the previous year’s total of just over $1 billion. Phillips have not released data on total 2023 private sales but did release a total of $44 million from the first six months of the year. They also confirmed a total of $4 million in primary market sales from a combination of six private selling exhibitions and five entries on its nascent DropShop platform, where Phillips offers one newly commissioned limited-edition print or sculptural multiple by a different artist every month. Christie’s and Sotheby’s have notably not provided data on primary market sales.

Contrastingly, Bonhams, which has been steadily acquiring smaller regional houses in recent years, confirmed a turnover of $1.2 billion for 2023, their highest total in history. That number includes sales by the auction house as well as its network for art, collectibles, luxury and collectors’ cars, and is a 14% increase from 2022. No doubt this is a welcome result for Epiris, the private equity firm that owns Bonhams, who in early February reportedly appointed JPMorgan Chase & Co. to advise on a possible sale of the auction house, with a floating valuation of $1 billion. There have been no further reports on the sale.

DropShop, a Platform by Philips. 'A digital platform offering limited-edition releases of primary market art and objects in partnership with the artists, collaborators, and brands defining contemporary culture.'

1.3 AUCTION CATEGORIES

The main 2023 Fine Art auction categories, Ultra-Contemporary, Post-War and Contemporary, Impressionist and Modern and Old Masters, largely followed historic patterns of market share. All categories noted a decline in the average price per lot, however, each genres’ individual year on year totals were also reflective of the quality of supply.

YOUNG CONTEMPORARY

The Young Contemporary market demonstrated the most significant drop in sales during 2023, reverting to pre-pandemic levels, before the boom in this genre. Auction sales generated $196.9 million in sales, down 43.3% from $347.2 million in 2022 and well below the 2021 peak at $741.4 million, when they surpassed Old Masters. However, despite total value decrease, 2023 marked the highest number of lots sold for this segment of the market, with a 16.8% increase from 2022. The decline in sales were most notable among artists such as Shara Hughes (down 80.5% from 2022), Flora Yukhnovich (down 88.0%) and María Berrío (down 91.8%). However, Young Contemporary artists who continued to show strength include Nicolas Party, Matthew Wong and Jadé Fadojutimi, all with new auction records set. In addition, there were a new crop of artists that made their auction debut’s this year that resulted in results soaring past conservative estimates, these include Mohamed Sami, Vojtěch Kovařík, Ben Sledsens and Raghav Babbar, among others.

TOP 10 MOST EXPENSIVE WORKS SOLD 2023

Mark Rothko, Untitled (Yellow, Orange, Yellow, Light Orange), 1955

Sold for: $46.4 million Premium

When: November 9, 2023

Where: Sotheby's, London 8

With the overall volume increasing, there was a notable drop in price performance. Average auction prices for Young Contemporary art fell by 45.1% to $82,700 in 2023. For the first time since 2018, the majority of artworks by Young Contemporary artists sold below their mid-estimate.

A number of factors are behind this dramatic descent. Increased supply and growing selectivity of buyers will impact average lot values and individual performances of artworks at auction. Moreover, when primary market prices catch up to secondary market values, there is a typical decline at auction. Nextgen buyers are behind a large proportion of bids in this category, who on average typically transact below $1 million. When price points exceed this, the pool of potential bidders naturally decreases. Instead, these bidders are attracted to market newcomers which accompany lower estimates. In the coming months, volume will likely remain high as the auction cycle continues to search for the next market star, but average price points will remain at this lower level.

Sold for: $46.4 million Premium

When: November 9, 2023

Where: Christie's, New York

TOP 10 MOST EXPENSIVE WORKS SOLD 2023

Richard Diebenkorn, Recollections of a Visit to Leningrad, 1965

POST-WAR AND CONTEMPORARY

Post-War and Contemporary art continues to be the largest and most important market segment, accounting for $3.4 billion in total sales value, down from $4.1 billion in 2022. The top selling artists in this category, all with total sales in excess of $100 million, include Jean-Michel Basquiat, Yayoi Kusama, Joan Mitchell, Gerhard Richter, and Andy Warhol. Some of the highest prices to occur include a major new record for Richard Diebenkorn, when Recollections of a Visit to Leningrad (1965) sold for $40 million (premium) at Christie’s New York in November. The top price in this category was set by Jean-Michel Basquiat, when El Gran Espectaculo (The Nile) (1983) sold for $58 million (premium) at Christie’s New York in May.

Still well below their male counterparts, sales for historical female artists continued to show strength, with totals for Louise Bourgeois, Barbara Hepworth, Lee Krasner, Joan Mitchell, and Alice Neel all significantly increased from 2022. Joan Mitchell in particular ranked among the top selling artists with $130 million in auction revenue, up from $67 million in 2022. A major new auction record of $29 million (premium) was achieved at Christie’s New York in November when Barry Rosenstein sold Untitled (1959). Contemporary female artists Julie Mehretu and Cecily Brown also had significant market jumps. Mehretu doubled her annual revenue in 2023, ending the year with $25.6 million. A new record was set October in Hong Kong and a month later this was beaten again with a $10.7 million (premium) result in New York, becoming the most expensive Africa-born artist at auction. Cecily Brown, who had major solo show at the Metropolitan Museum of Art, also saw her sales total double to $46.3 million from $33.1 million in 2022.

IMPRESSIONIST AND MODERN

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The Impressionist and Modern sales revealed the largest total drop behind the Young Contemporary category, with total sales at $2.9 billion, down from $4.5 billion in 2022. This can be somewhat accounted for from the supply of the Paul Allen sale which significantly boosted this genre last year. The top four selling artists from this category, all with totals in excess of $140 million, include Pablo Picasso, René Magritte, Claude Monet and Gustav Klimt. Sales volume was notably higher with 4,103 lots sold, an 8.5% increase on the 3,783 lots sold in 2022. London specifically saw growth in the Impressionist genre, notably due to a number of high profile lots from the Josefowitz collection sold during the October auctions and a major auction record for Gustav Klimt’s Dame mit Fächer (Lady with a Fan) (1917-18) which sold for $94.4 million (premium) at Sotheby’s London in June. This was the highest value picture ever to be sold at auction in the European continent. Notably, all three major Klimt paintings that came to auction in 2023 sold to Asian buyers.

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OLD MASTERS

Old Masters were one of the few Fine Art auction categories that did not reveal a significant decline from 2022 sales totals; they generated $467 million, lower than 2022’s $543 million but up 15.4% from 2021. The 100% sold collection of the Swiss Lebanese collector J.E. Safra, sold in January at Christie’s without reserve, will have helped boost these totals.

Moreover, market share shifted back to London, accounting for 50.3% of sales in 2023, up from 26.7% in 2022. The top three artists by sales in the Old Masters category were Rembrandt, Rubens,

1.4 REGIONAL SHIFTS

Global auction sales by region were in decline from 2022 in line with 2023 general totals, the only regions to have positive sales growth by value were Zurich, Geneva, Amsterdam, and Cologne. New York had a significant drop of 33% largely due to the Paul Allen sale boosting 2022 results, from $5.38 billion in 2022 to $3.58 billion in 2023. However, New York remains the most important sales location, with a 62.4% market share (down from 68.1% in 2022). This was followed by London with a 19.9% market share (up from 17.8% in 2022), Hong Kong with 11.6% share of total sales (compared to 8.8% in 2022), and Paris with a 5.5% market share (up from 4.1% in 2022).

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The Asia-Pacific region has been a major driving force behind much of the art market boom over the past two years. Hong Kong in particular has been an important hub for the Young Contemporary category, accounting for 40% of the auction sales of this genre in 2023. In line with reports on the weakening of this sales category, and the general performance of the Long Museum sale, there has been a growing sentiment that the region’s market power may be in decline. However, Fine Art sales showed just an 8% shrinkage, from $921.7 million in 2022 to $847.8 million in 2023, across the Hong Kong, Beijing and Shanghai salerooms of Christie’s, Sotheby’s, Phillips, China Guardian and Poly Auction. This is a notably smaller decrease compared to London (16% decrease), Paris (23% decrease), & New York (27% decrease).

These numbers are helpful indicators in terms of consignment locations, but we should note that statistics around bidders by region are additional and somewhat more important tools in understanding the strength of each geographical region. Christie’s, for example, reported the number of new buyers in their global sales from mainland China was up 30%. Moreover, all three major Klimt paintings that came to market in 2023, sold to Asia-Pacific buyers.

Poly Auction House in Hong Kong

TOP 10 MOST EXPENSIVE WORKS SOLD 2023

6

Francis Bacon, Figure in Movement, 1976

Sold for: $52.2 million Premium

When: October 7, 2023

Where: Christie's, New York

The auction houses continue to throw their strategic weight behind this region, which is reflective of the continued strength of its buying force. In March of this year Phillips moved to a new 52,000-square-foot space in Hong Kong and grew their staff from around seventy to more than one hundred. Sotheby’s recently expanded its office in Shanghai and in autumn 2024 will open a new 24,000-square-foot space that it is billing as a “maison” in Hong Kong’s Central district. Also in the coming months, Christie's will open its new Asia Pacific headquarters in Hong Kong, this will allow for a more synchronized auction calendar, no longer at the behest of the Convention Center schedule.

In the European continent, 2023 saw continued debate on the supposed tussle between London and Paris. In auction sales value, there remains little to argue in terms of regional market share, London totaled $1.9 billion, a 15.7% decrease from 2022. Paris totaled $681.1 million, a higher 23.3% decrease from last year. Overall, the competition between London and Paris remains a cultural one, in terms of gallery footprint, art fair presence and institutional clout, rather than a financial battle, for now.

Paul Allen Sale, Christie's, New York

November 9, 2022

The Fineberg Collection was the first major single owner sale of the year at Christie’s, New York in May, the timing of this auction unfortunately marked a turning point for the overall contraction of the market. Held in two parts, around 90% of the 214 lots were sold, with an overall hammer price of $159.8 million against a presale estimate of $198 - 286 million for both parts. The owners refused guarantees, instead opting to receive a heavy portion of the buyer’s premium. The strong sell through rate against low hammer ratio is testament to the heavy lowering of reserves executed by the auction house and heirs to ensure lots sold. The top lot, Christopher Wool’s colorful Untitled (1993) painting, hammered at $8.4 million ($10 million premium) compared with the estimated

a house guarantee, the 2023 price was HK$235 million ($34.2 million premium), marking a significant loss for Sotheby’s. With a sell through rate of 74%, works by David Hockney, Zao Wou-Ki, and Yayoi Kusama went unsold. The results caused perceived weakness in the Hong Kong auction market. With Asian buyers behind a number of the top lots globally throughout 2023, however, this is a reductive conclusion for the sale. Reasons behind the auction were hotly debated and only loosely marketed by Sotheby’s to ‘fund new acquisitions and programming’. Buyers were possibly sensitive to the unwillingness of the museum founders to publicly comment.

The more profound impact of this sale called into question the long-term stability of a number of private foundations which have used their status to acquire sought after primary market artists. Works by Mark Bradford, Dana Schutz and Jonas Wood directly acquired from their primary market galleries, were included in the Long Museum sale. Albeit on a smaller scale, earlier in the year, a similar story emerged during the Sotheby’s London evening sale in June. Ding Yixiao a contemporary art collector who founded the Xiao Museum of Contemporary Art in Rizhao, in China’s Shandong province, consigned a number of works by in-demand Young Contemporary artists to the Now sale. Just before the sale, likely due to limited interest, works by Louise Bonnet, Hilary Pecis, and Emily Mae Smith, with a cumulative estimate range of £440,000 - 660,000 ($560,000 to 840,000) were withdrawn from the sale. These instances will have drawn unhappy speculation from trade and gallerists, the poor performance of these sales in turn could be linked to the lack of trade support, instead wanting to spurn collectors they had previously afforded sought after access to from their program.

Sotheby's chairman and auctioneer Oliver Barker fielding bids during the auction of works from the collection of Emily Fisher Landau.

November 10, 2023

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Finally, in November 2023 during the last sale cycle of the season, the hotly anticipated collection of the deceased Whitney Museum of American Art patron, Emily Fisher Landau, came to market. Sold at Sotheby’s New York, this consignment had been fiercely competed over by all three houses. Having learnt the lessons of the Fineberg Collection, the entire sale of thirty-one lots was guaranteed by Sotheby’s. Twenty-five of the thirty-one lots were backed by third parties by the time the sale begun. The low estimates of those third-party works totaled $297.3 million, 86% by value. Testament to the importance of guarantees in ensuring the public success of a sale, the hammer total of the auction was $351.6 million ($406.4 million premium), comfortably within the pre-sale estimate range of $344.5 - 430.1 million. The sale produced the highest value artwork sold at auction during 2023, for Pablo Picasso’s 1932 portrait of Marie-Thérèse Walter, Femme à la montre. Estimated in excess of $120 million, the painting sold for $121 million hammer ($139.4 million premium), almost a third of the entire sale value, reflecting the power of a single picture to dictate the success of an auction. There were a number of other strong prices, notably two new auction records: $11.8 million (premium) for Mark Tansey’s Triumph Over Mastery II (1987); and $18.7 million (premium) for Agnes Martin’s early grid painting Grey Stone II (1961). However, sources ultimately reported the results were significantly below the overall guarantee provided by Sotheby’s. Including day sale works, a final sale total was publicized at $425 million (premium), below the rumored guarantee of $440-450 million. As a result, in contrast to public data of a 100% sold ‘white glove’ sale, the auction will have possibly marked a financial loss for Sotheby’s who absorbed major risk in order to win the consignment and boost their market share.

These three sales were the most talked about from 2023, largely due to the perceived failures against a strategic legacy of the ‘single owner premium’ that has historically boosted the results of consignments rather than hampered. The Fineberg, Long Museum and Landau sales serve as major case studies for the art market: especially the role of guarantees in publicized sales figures against overall profits of the houses, the importance of appropriate estimates and the crucial timing and marketing of these sales. However, the chart below reveals a number of successes in the collections that came to public market 2023 and should be duly noted.

1.6 CONCLUSION

Despite 2023 witnessing a decline in sales total, against increased volume, average sell through rates remained strong at 82% compared to 83.1% in 2022. This is reflective of sellers beginning to shift expectations to buyer’s appetites, and this increasing flexibility will be essential for these

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THE IMPRESSIONIST AND POST IMPRESSIONIST MARKET IN 2023 2.

2.1 PERFORMANCE

In the autumn of 2022 three all time auction records were set on one dramatic evening in New York for paintings by Paul Cezanne, Paul Gauguin and Vincent Van Gogh. These records each in excess of $100 million broke previous records of longstanding: Cezanne 1999, Gauguin 2006, and the van Gogh record which had stood for over thirty years having been set in May 1990. In 2023 no work by any of these three giants of Post-Impressionism exceeded $40 million. Might one conclude from this that the Post-Impressionist market peaked in 2022 and that 2023 witnessed a slow down in 2023? That would be a misleading conclusion to draw.

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There is no one single ‘art market’. Metrics and indices better designed for measuring movements in the stock market, or fluctuations in the price of a barrel of oil, must be treated with great caution when applied to the ‘art market’ or ‘markets’, as they often generate misleading headlines. There is of course one great art market but that great market is in reality made up of a multiplicity of many different, smaller markets which are defined by date, such as nineteenth century paintings, or movements such as Surrealism and Symbolism; or by geographical or topological criteria such as Chinese contemporary art or American paintings. Each of these smaller markets performs idiosyncratically and, within these different markets, painters will perform differently and even within a particular painter’s work different periods (early / late) or styles will perform differently.

Bearing in mind the above, I would like to look at the performance of the Impressionist and PostImpressionist in 2023 by examining some of the results for the three great painters mentioned above and also include some results for Claude Monet (both early and late), Camille Pissarro and Alfred Sisley as well as Edgar Degas, Pierre Auguste Renoir and Henri de Toulouse Lautrec.

Sold for: $53.2 million Premium

When: May 16, 2023 Where: Sotheby's, New York

The market for Claude Monet may be broadly split between pre- and post-1900; that is to say Impressionist works and then the later waterlily paintings from his garden at Giverny. A very good painting of Les Peupliers, one of his famous series pictures, appeared at auction in 2023 and sold for $30.78 million (premium), which is historically high and compares favourably with the 2022 record of $36.48 million (premium) for a similar but more highly coloured work. A large Nympheas also sold for $74 milllion (premium), which is just shy of the all-time record for a Nympheas painting set in 2018. Monet performed well in 2023 and remains the leading price setter in the Impressionist market.

2023 did not see any major works by either Camille Pissarro or Alfred Sisley appear at auction and the best prices of the year were a long off the record prices for these painters set in the middle of the last decade. Prices remained stable, if unspectacular for these artists in 2023.

Pierre Auguste Renoir has never come close to his record price of $78 million (premium) set in 1990 for his masterpiece Le Moulin de la Galette and in recent years he has only once exceeded $20 million (premium). A rare Parisian cityscape, however, made a strong price of $11.91 million (premium) against an estimate of $4 – 6 million in May 2023 which reinforces the view that good paintings will make good prices. Even if headline prices for Renoir are down from some of the heights of the past, a rare subject, not often seen on the market, will always bring a strong result.

TOP 10 MOST EXPENSIVE WORKS SOLD 2023

Jean-Michel Basquiat, El Gran Espectaculo (The Nile), 1983

Sold for: $67.1 million Premium

When: May 15, 2023

Where: Christie's, New York

As outlined above, there were some good examples of works by Paul Gauguin, Paul Cézanne and Vincent van Gogh which came to the market in 2023 but nothing which achieved more than $40 million and nothing to compare to the three masterpieces that were sold from the collection of the late Paul Allen in the autumn of 2022.

Global auction totals for Impressionist and Post-Impressionist art were down on 2022 by some 50% but that does not mean that the market was necessarily weaker than or slowing down from 2022. It merely reflects the fact that we did not see the major works coming to the market in the same way as in 2022 when death (Paul Allen) and divorce (The Macklowes) brought many major works under the hammer.

It is difficult to draw too many conclusions about the market from one season to the next when volumes and records can be distorted by an element of chance. The strength of the Impressionist and Post-Impressionist market, like any subsection of the general art market, is very dependent on quality and supply. Nevertheless, it is possible to see some long-term trends. Impressionism and Post-Impressionism dominated the art market from circa 1987 to circa 2008 having pushed

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3.

THE DEATH EFFECT: SUPPLY, SHOCK, AND A SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY

3.1 INTRODUCTION

One rule that has been very influential among those who have sought to understand the art market is the so-called Death Effect, according to which the death of an artist affects a positive price development in the artist’s market. The Death Effect is not a proper theory. Typically, it does not take the form of a statement supported by a set of generally applicable principles capturing the dynamics of the art market or markets in general. Perhaps, it can best be described as a myth that is regularly drawn upon both by collectors and gallerists as a working hypothesis to explain and justify purchase and sales decisions. Given the ubiquity of this myth, it is useful to scrutinize it to see how the death of an artist affects pricing.

In this short note, we consider Jean-Michel Basquiat’s market following the artist’s untimely death in 1988 to investigate the impact an artist’s death can have on markets. We address three ways an artist’s death may conceivably drive a positive price-development. The overall conclusion is that while there may be cases where an artist’s death raises prices, particularly as a self-fulfilling prophecy, the devil remains in the details and the intricacies surrounding an artist’s death.

Grave of Jean-Michel Basquiat

3.2 JEAN-MICHEL BASQUIAT

Jean-Michel Basquiat is widely considered among the most significant contemporary artists. His painterly technique, fusing Neo-Expressionism, graffiti slogans, and a cacophony of charged symbols, has inspired generations of artists, including Aboudia, Huma Bhabha, Rashid Johnson, and Daisy Parris, among others. Basquiat’s work has been featured in many significant exhibitions, including most recently a show at The Beyeler Foundation in Basel in 2023. The art market has not been dormant to Basquiat’s influence and stature, with the artist’s 2017 auction record standing at $110 million (premium), making him the most expensive Post-War painter.

Basquiat is a paradigmatic artist to consider when assessing the Death Effect, as his market has not always been as heated as it is today. During his life, there was strong interest in his work, with the young artist showing with significant galleries, such as Mary Boone and Bruno Bischofberger, and collaborating with Andy Warhol on a series of paintings. At the moment of his untimely 1988 death, his auction record, however, ‘merely’ stood at $99,000 (premium) – shy from the 1988 $165,000 (premium) auction record of his friend Julian Schnabel. This has led some to speculate that, while there were many factors pushing Basquiat’s career, the artist’s premature death at 27 had a significant role to play as well.

Looking at the artist’s auction pricing between 1985 and 1995, with each auction result symbolised by a blue dot, we can see a sharp rise in interest in Basquiat’s market between 1989 and 1990, with the 1990 auction record standing in excess of $400,000 (premium) – surpassing the artist’s lifetime record by a factor of four. While many factors boosted Basquiat’s career posthumously, including a show at Kestnergesellschaft in 1989 and the expectation of a show at the Whitney Museum of American Art in 1992, this can hardly explain Basquiat’s steep ascent in 1989 – 1990. So, if death has an effect on artist’s markets, then the example of Basquait – of a significant jump within a two year time-frame – is an exemplary case to consider.

Why has Basquiat’s market developed so profoundly following the artist’s death?

3.3 LIMITATION OF SUPPLY

One general dictum of economics is that prices are a function of supply and demand and that limiting supply will drive prices. One way an artist’s death can affect prices is by halting the supply of paintings on the primary market, thus increasing demand for the remaining stock. Limitation of supply can be a factor in the case of Basquiat, as his death certainly limited the expectation of future supply, particularly for highly sought-after works from the 1980s.

A significant limitation of looking at primary market supply is that it fails to support a general case for the Death Effect. Death does not change the supply expectations for historical artworks, as the artist will have ceased production many years ago. Death only changes supply expectations for works the market expected the artist to produce before passing. As such, looking at how death changes supply will fail to explain or corroborate a Death Effect, particularly for artists with an extensive historical body of work.

3.4 THE SHOCK OF DEATH

The second way an artist’s passing can affect the market is through shock and media sensation. Art market professional Amy Cappellazzo notes, for instance, how she remembers “very vividly the day [Basquiat] died”, while she was studying in New York, and how “it was a day we didn’t forget”. In particular, the idea is that a newsworthy event, such as the artist’s passing, makes the artist’s work a more salient topic of public discourse, thus increasing market demand. Unlike an explanation rooted in supply, this can account for a secondary market price development for both fresh and historical works by an artist, as the effect of shock runs tangential to any concern with supply.

Aside from Basquiat, a paradigmatic example of an artist’s unexpected death is Matthew Wong, who tragically died at 35 in 2019 from suicide, shortly after major galleries like Cheim & Read and Massimo de Carlo took an interest in him. In the year following his passing, his work had an auction debut, with the 2020 auction record just shy of $5 million (premium).

The downside of rooting the death effect in a shock created by the artist’s passing is that this explanation is also extremely limiting. Often, even among famous artists, death is not very shocking because the artist in question is extremely old. For instance, in the case of Carmen Herrera, who passed away at the ripe age of 106, her death was newsworthy but not surprising or shocking. So, again, the media sensation or shock that death creates will unlikely provide a generally applicable rule to support the Death Effect.

3.5 THE SELF FULFILLING PROPHECY

Finally, a reasonable idea I call the self fulfilling prophecy, is that death affects a positive price development in markets because a sufficient number of market participants believe in the Death Effect and that belief is reflected in their behavior through more confident bidding, buying, and curatorial support. This idea honours that art market participants’ beliefs – whether well-justified or not – have a constitutive role in shaping markets. A benefit of this hypothesis is that unlike the previous ones discussed, its explanation is more universally applicable, depending less on circumstantial facts, such as shock or supply, surrounding an artist's death.

The self-fulfilling prophecy is consistent with the other explanations provided. Perhaps sometimes, a limitation of supply or shock may give art market participants greater credence in the Death Effect and so, ultimately, affect the behaviour and beliefs of art market participants. Perhaps, looking at the Death Effect as a sociological phenomenon that arose as shared belief from the interaction of market participants, it may also be the case that historically the limitation of supply and the shock surrounding an artist’s death that subsequently pushed prices may have played a constitutive role in socially entrenching the Death Effect as a set of habits and expectations among art market participants.

A remaining challenge with the self fulfilling prophecy suggestion is that it will have to involve a variety of qualifications to explain the varying ways in which death can affect an artist’s market. The example of Basquiat is a clear case of a market push in the two years following the artist’s death. Not all deaths have this market trajectory, however. For instance, it has been observed that market late-bloomers – artists such as Carmen Herrera, who achieve commercial success in the very late stages of their lives – have a Death Effect prior to their passing.

TOP 10 MOST EXPENSIVE WORKS SOLD 2023

Claude Monet, Le bassin aux nymphéas, 1919

Sold for: $74 million Premium

When: November 7, 2023

Where: Christie's, New York

Furthermore, many blue-chip artists have a quite attenuated Death Effect. Robert Ryman may be a good example of an artist who, despite being in the art historical canon, had a flat posthumous trajectory.

Finally, a question the self-fulfilling hypothesis will have to answer is how long the Death Effect lasts? Clearly, an artist’s death will not boost a market in perpetuity, as a sudden rise in interest may lead to market-dumping, with owners of works of a recently deceased artist bringing too many works into the market. These are all questions that will have to be addressed in any systematic analysis of the Death Effect.

3.6 DRAWING CONCLUSIONS

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There are many reasons why an artist’s market may rise following their passing. The most universally applicable reason why there is a Death Effect is that a self-fulfilling prophecy emerges among art market participants. A sufficient number of art market participants, consciously or unconsciously, adopt the Death Effect as a working theory of how the art market operates and, as such, make it the case that there is a Death Effect. It should be noted, however, that the effect of death on markets highly depends on the circumstances of an artist’s passing. Sometimes, there is a clear increase in interest posthumously, sometimes the Death Effect precedes death, and quite often an artist’s death goes unnoticed by the market.

Aside from death, it should be noted that there is a whole breadth of other relevant factors affecting the development of artist’s markets posthumously, particularly in the long term. For instance, questions to consider are: what is the gallery representation? Are there many forgeries on the market? How will the estate be managed? Badly managed posthumous planning can, particularly in the long term, adversely affect artists’ markets by hindering international exhibitions, and by creating distrust in the legitimacy of those offerings available at auction or privately. Most importantly – and this is where art advisors such as the Fine Art Group come in – it is crucial to have a critical eye and seek out the best works by an artist for the right price. Often, having the best work by an artist and paying for it at the height of his market is a better choice than buying a less accomplished work at the right time, whether that be shortly prior to the artist’s passing or not.

THE YOUNG CONTEMPORARY ART MARKET 4.

4.1 THE YOUNG CONTEMPORARY ART MARKET

The Young Contemporary art market, defined to include artists under 45 years of age, has been volatile over the past eighteen months. As the fastest growing and most speculative segment of the market, its long-term outlook has been one of the most discussed topics in the art world. This segment saw an unprecedented growth in 2021, when sales doubled from the two years prior. An increased demand for works in this category led to numerous young artists setting auction records previously unheard of for anyone outside the ‘art historically established’ or ‘blue-chip’ category. Competitive bidding in salesrooms worldwide for new, fresh-out-of-college names resulted in multi-million-dollar prices against modest estimates. For the first time, Sotheby’s dedicated an independent evening sale to Young Contemporary art only: The Now Evening Auction focuses on art executed in the last twenty years.

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A similar surge in the market took place between 2012 and 2014, when “Zombie Formalism”, an art market moment characterised by a particular style of abstract painting emphasising novel

4.2 GALLERY SUPPORT

Traditionally, galleries take on the responsibility of nurturing their artists’ careers with the aim of positioning them critically as significant contributors to the art historical canon. As such, particularly with young artists, galleries consider it crucial to be strategic about placing the artists’ works in important exhibitions as well as in private and public collections. They will go to great lengths to filter potential buyers they deem appropriate, exploring ways to stop the manipulation of their artists’ markets and to maintain the integrity of their artists’ work.

There are various strategies that galleries employ to look after their young artists, such as providing regular exposure through a carefully curated exhibition programme, financially supporting the artist’s studio, facilitating research, marketing their work to a wider collector base, vetting prospective collectors, ensuring beneficial placement, and prioritising museum acquisitions. Buyer vetting can take several forms, including surveying a potential collector’s existing collections and favouring clients with institutional affiliations.

Although her auction presence and peak predate the 2021 frenzy, the trajectory of Nigerianborn artist Njideka Akunyili-Crosby (b.1983) is worth mentioning here. The high demand for the artist’s works, dealing with cultural hybridity and her diasporic experience, drove unprecedented prices at auction. Soon after joining the roster of the blue-chip gallery David Zwirner in 2018, however, which began representing the artist jointly with Victoria Miro, Akunyili-Crosby’s auction presence saw a decline, with only two works coming up in the past two years. This was in part because of the galleries’ continuous efforts to discourage opportunistic behaviour and the general overheating of her market, going to great lengths to ensure that they placed new works with genuine collectors rather than speculative buyers looking for ways to make quick profit.

Njideka Akunyili-Crosby, Bush Babies, 2017, acrylic, transfers, colored pencil and collage on paper, 72 x 60 in. (182.9 x 152.4 cm.)

The work is the auction record for the artist, selling in May 2018 for $3.3 million (premium) against an estimate of $600,000–800,000.

TOP 10 MOST EXPENSIVE WORKS SOLD 2023

Gustav Klimt,

Sold for: $106.75 million Premium

When: June 27, 2023

Where: Sotheby's, London

Los Angeles-based artist Christina Quarles (b.1985), whose work explores the complexities of human experience and the fluidity of identity, is another illuminating example. The artist’s secondary market saw an unprecedented auction record of $4.52 million (premium) in 2022. A year prior, Quarles had joined the roster of Hauser & Wirth, a blue-chip gallery that began representing her alongside Pilar Corrias in London, which had worked with the artist since 2018. This move secured global representation for the artist by a major gallery, which ensured a degree of stability for her market, in part through a globally distributed exhibition programme. Following solo shows primarily in the US and the UK, the artist’s institutional and commercial presence grew after joining Hauser & Wirth’s roster, extending to Europe and Asia, thus expanding her global collector base.

Christina Quarles, Our Eyes Our Open / Are Eyes Are Open, 2017, acrylic on canvas, 50 x 42 in. (127 x 106.7 cm.)

The work sold in March 2023 for $517,713 with premium, against an estimate of HK$1.6–2.6 million.

Dame mit Fächer (Lady with a Fan), 1917

4.3 INSTITUTIONAL PRESENCE AND SUPPORT

Cultural institutions, too, play a significant role in career development. Certainly, the artist’s commercial stature is one criterion for success, but having an institutional presence means that the works are also intellectually respected, regardless of how well they perform in the market. Quarles’s case is once again a good example: concurrent with gallery support came a growing institutional exhibition presence worldwide – a considerable factor in the long-term outlook of her auction market.

The case of Scottish artist Caroline Walker (b.1982) also deserves mention. Reflecting on the social, cultural and economic experiences of women in contemporary society, Walker’s paintings explore the everyday lives of women at work. The artist’s market has seen a significant surge in recent years, breaking the $1 million mark earlier in 2023. By the time of her global auction debut in 2019, Walker had already participated in several solo and group museum shows. The artist’s work was therefore part of an intellectual discourse in the years leading up to her market boom, suggesting a degree of institutional validation prior to, and independent from, her commercial success. This existing institutional foundation for the artist continues to ensure that her longer-term success remains unaffected by the fluctuations of the Young Contemporary market.

Caroline Walker, Threshold, 2014. oil on canvas, 78 3/4 x 118 1/8 in. (200 x 300 cm.)

The work established the artist’s auction record, selling for $ 1.1 million (premium).

The validation system provided by institutions remains one of the few ways to help assess the sustainability of these young artists’ markets long-term. It is important to take a deeper look, however, and have a holistic approach when assessing an artist’s CV, as institutional presence does not immediately imply commercial longevity. Presence within some museums can count for more than others, depending on the overall stature and reputation of these institutions. Taking a step further, the institutional and the commercial criteria might not always be entirely independent from each other: as part of their work to encourage institutional support and ensure buyers do not resell works too quickly on the secondary market, galleries employ various stipulations within sale contracts, such as requesting to purchase two works and donate one to a certain institution of the gallery or collector’s choice.

4.4 MEDIA PRESENCE AND NOTABLE REVIEWS

The “Zombie Formalist” moment in 2012 to 2014 was driven by a highly speculative art market rather than critical discourse scrutinising its contribution to the wider art historical canon. For many of today’s young artists, such conceptual and intellectual commentary on their work goes hand in hand with their commercial and institutional presence.

Some may argue that art criticism has become a tool to understand, contextualise, and deepen the artist’s work, but also a publicity machine for their commercial success. More than anything, however, this media footprint acts as a filter through which the highly speculative market for Young Contemporary art can be analysed and understood. Art publications today play a vital role in speaking to the quality of the works of art and placing the young artists’ practices within the wider art historical canon.

Take the example of Issy Wood (b.1993). The 30-year-old artist quickly reached the $500,000 price point within the first year of her auction debut in 2021, just three years after completing her master’s at the Royal Academy Schools in London. Among the factors driving that momentum, including increased demand for her works following Art Basel Miami in 2018, is the growing list of major publications reviewing Wood’s work. Though still early in her career, art reviews have appeared in Frieze, ArtForum, The Guardian, New Yorker, and Hyperallergic, along with an interview in The New York Times. This presence confirms a growing critical engagement with her work, shaping a discourse that runs parallel to her market performance.

Issy Wood, Serves You Right 5, 2020, oil on canvas, 55 x 39 3⁄8 in. (139.7 x 100 cm.)

Sold in November 2023 for $302,400 (premium) against an estimate of $80,000–$120,000.

The artist recently rejected an offer of representation by Gagosian and is currently working with Carlos/Ishikawa and Michael Werner galleries in London and New York. As she continues building her institutional and commercial presence, art publications on her work will continue to strengthen her position within the broader art historical discourse.

This list of principles that help contextualise market for young artists is naturally non-exhaustive. Gallery representation, institutional support, and media presence are often complemented by other factors, including a strong public and private collector base, participation in important fairs and biennials, and receipt of noteworthy awards. Against the backdrop of such a volatile market and external developments, including economic uncertainty and changes in aesthetic taste, it is difficult to single out a reason why some artists’ works are performing better than others, and even more challenging to look into the future. That said, using some of those factors to better understand the artist’s critical and commercial stature is a good start.

COMMERCIAL GALLERIES 5.

5.1 REAL ESTATE MOVES IN GALLERY SECTOR

Commercial galleries, like auction houses, faced challenging business conditions in 2023. We have few objective measures for the health of the segment, but a realistic sense of how businesses are performing can be gleaned from instructive indicators. Chief among these is real estate, and several key trends are discernible. Most dramatically, consolidation at the apex of the market and the fierce competition for market share in what stubbornly remains a zero-sum game, still propels a relentless expansionist drive at the biggest businesses.

Hauser & Wirth’s campaign for global growth was one of the most visible manifestations of this trend in 2023, concluding the year with a fearsome tally of commercial developments. This included the acquisition of seasoned secondary market dealer Carlo Knoell’s business in Basel, further hiring him as Senior Director. Recognising the growing importance of Paris in the European market, the gallery opened an outpost there for the first time with a 9,000 square foot space in a commanding neo-classical building near the Champs-Élysées. In America, and similarly reflecting Los Angeles’ importance for the country’s domestic art market, Hauser & Wirth opened a new 6,000 square foot space in a 1930s West Hollywood building, complementing their existing 100,000 square foot Downtown premises. Despite macro-economic and political challenges in Hong Kong, the gallery has doubled down on its presence in the city, opening a brand new 10,000 square foot space in early 2024. All this alongside the ongoing renovations to the nineteenth-century Grade II listed Victorian building that will host Hauser & Wirth’s 15,000 square foot London headquarters set to open in late 2024.

Hauser & Wirth, Paris

Never has there been a better demonstration of the rarefied game played by the biggest commercial galleries, and the novel strategies they must implement to stay ahead. As such, it demonstrates their deep commitment to accruing market share at apparently endless cost and a significant degree of confidence in the global demand for Modern and contemporary art.

Comparably, in New York, the art market’s most important city, dealers of all stripes demonstrated confidence throughout 2023. Due to the ponderous nature of real estate expansion, much of this follows the strength of market demand in 2021 and 2022 with many galleries deploying cash surpluses generated in those relatively booming years to expand their footprints.

Chelsea remains the location for the largest gallery spaces, with Gagosian, Hauser & Wirth, Pace and David Zwirner all headquartered there. But downtown Tribeca is arguably the most exciting commercial gallery district anywhere in the world currently. Blessed with dramatic nineteenthcentury cast iron facades, strong load bearing structures and a neighbourhood feel, Tribeca’s gallery community has grown steadily from a handful to approximately seventy notable galleries in the past decade with galleries of all sizes committing to the area.

Marian Goodman, still one of the largest and most successful galleries despite the age (ninety-six) and near total absence of the founder from daily operations, is opening a cavernous new 30,000 square foot gallery in a five-story building dating to 1875. In a comparable move, established dealer Jack Shainman began 2024 with the opening of a new 20,000 square foot gallery in Tribeca’s historic Clock Tower Building built in 1898. A former Beaux-Arts bank hall with twentynine-foot-high coffered ceilings and dramatic white marble columns, the space couldn’t contrast more with the sterility and homogeneity of Chelsea.

Marian Goodman, New York

The same period has been notable for established and blue-chip British galleries making serious commitments to the city. Lisson Gallery, the largest British-born gallery operating in New York, opened its iconic venue under the High Line in 2016, which is further complemented by a second smaller space around the corner. For many years the market wondered when White Cube would follow suit and it was considered surprising that the gallery had resisted the expansion for so long, preferring instead to double down on a vast London footprint and a meaningful foothold in Hong Kong and Asia. In 2023 the gallery opened a new 8,000 square foot space on Madison Avenue, within close proximity of the Metropolitan Museum of Art, happily coinciding with the business’s thirtieth anniversary. Other notable British dealers opening or expanding in New York last year include Stephen Friedman and Timothy Taylor, both with substantial footprints in Tribeca.

Despite Brexit-induced complications and a relative art market softening in Europe, London remains the second most important art market centre globally and this is reflected in the strength, depth and dynamism of its commercial gallery sector. Cork Street has successfully regained its pre-eminence, with a heavy weight accumulation of businesses, including Stephen Friedman’s new 10,000 square foot gallery, and mid-tier veterans of contemporary art Alison Jacques, Goodman Gallery, Massimo de Carlo, Tiwani Contemporary and Waddington Custot, alongside established secondary market and historical dealers Sam Fogg, Mayor Gallery, Messums and Nahmad Projects, among others.

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Elsewhere in the city, notable younger galleries have expanded or opened in London for the first time. Emalin, now well established after opening in 2016, recently inaugurated a second space in a historic Spitalfields building. Similarly, starting out during the pandemic in 2020 hasn’t prevented dealer Niru Ratnam from expanding into a large new space near Regent’s Park in early 2024. Continuing the development of Bloomsbury as a growing hub for contemporary art dealers, Hot Wheels gallery opened their first London location having originated in Athens with an experimental progamme beginning in 2019.

Commercial galleries continue to rely on art fairs for business and there are strong forces currently shaping the sector. Operating without physical fairs during the global pandemic prompted many dealers to improve the quality of their digital outreach efforts and refocus attention on their core revenue streams. This led to a growing selectivity for most dealers considering their annual fair commitments, with many opting only for the most established brands of Art Basel and Frieze. By extension, and comparable to the auction sector, a powerful duopoly has taken grip of the art fair business. Both fair brands now command global, yearround events in the calendar, with Frieze occurring in Los Angeles (February), New York (May), Seoul (September) and London (October), and Art Basel opening in Hong Kong (March), Basel (June), Paris (October) and Miami (December). Between them, these two fair brands have full control of the commercial gallery world’s annual publicity moments. The challenge for these businesses – as well as the auction houses and commercial galleries – is where to find further growth in what remains an industry still lacking any meaningful expansion by value over the past decade. In July 2023 Frieze announced the acquisition of respected independent fairs the Armory Show (New York in September) and Expo Chicago (April). At present no further changes to these businesses have been released, but Frieze’s long-term strategy in adding these assets to its portfolio may yet unfold in unexpected ways, given the brand recognition and customer loyalty to these already established fair brands.

With very little empirical data offering an overview of the commercial gallery sector and its relative health, we must glean what conclusions we can from the information at hand. Anecdotally, and in our daily conversations with art dealers as advisors and specialists, 2023 was neither catastrophic nor prolific. Making do and getting by is the most commonly reported disposition within businesses currently, with an optimistic glance cast towards the end of 2024 for an improvement in trade.

Frieze Seoul 2022

KEY DATES 6.

KEY DATES FOR 2024 (Q2)

Auctions

New York, US, 6-17 May

London, UK, 25-26 June Fairs

Art Basel, Hong Kong, China, 28-30 March

TEFAF New York, US, 10-14 May

Frieze New York, US, 1-5 May

Art Basel, Switzerland, 13-16 June

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Information in this report is compiled from a number of sources; while the information provided herein is believed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. Readers must assume the responsibility of checking facts themselves. The Fine Art Group shall not be liable for any errors or inaccuracies in this report or for any actions taken in reliance on information or opinion contained in this report. Report contents represent the opinion of The Fine Art Group and state of affairs only as at the date the report is prepared and may quickly become out of date. Information in this report is to be used for general research purposes only. It does not represent any form of investment or trading advice and should not be used as such. Any statements referring to the desirability of holding, selling, or buying are general opinions and not recommendations to buy or sell any item or artist. Capital is at risk when buying and selling of works of art, and any decision to do so is solely at the risk of the buyer.

Copyright © 2024 The Fine Art Group Limited; this report and all intellectual property rights in or arising from it belong to The Fine Art Group Limited, and all rights in it are reserved. No further copying or distribution of this report in whole or in part, by any means, is permitted.

IMAGE LINKS

TOP 10 IMAGES

https://www.artsy.net/article/artsy-editorial-10-expensive-works-sold-auction-2023

STAND ALONE IMAGES

Phillip's Dropshop: https://www.phillips.com/press/release/phillips-announces-groundbreakingnew-digital-platform-presenting-works-by-contemporary-artists-and-makers

Julie Mehrutu artwork: https://www.artnews.com/art-news/news/julie-mehretu-sets-newauction-record-for-an-african-born-artist-with-9-32-m-sale-1234681601/

Poly Auction Hong Kong:

https://www.polyauction.com.hk/en

Paul Allen Single Owner Sale: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/09/arts/design/paul-allenauction-christies.html

Emily Fishere Landau Sale: https://www.theartnewspaper.com/2023/11/09/sothebys-new-yorkemily-fisher-landau-auction-report

Jean-Michel Basquiat, Self-Portrait as a Heel (Part Two) (1982): https://news.artnet.com/ market/auction-records-julie-mehretu-jenny-saville-2398187jpg&thw=476&thh=647&ptime=32 &dlen=101244&expw=670&exph=1024&selectedindex=0&id=ACC450658613CC2

Grave of Jean-Michel Basquiat: https://flickr.com/photos/moxola/53325815764/in/photolist2pfdKbC-2ofkJhW-2ofqSWk-2ofkJ6y-sxZavj-63QBTy-21AaQYr-2mSx59Z-bAwbeT-29

Njideka Akunyili-Crosby, Bush Babies, 2017: https://news.artnet.com/market/lisa-schiff-onwomen-artists-market-speculation-1369453

Christina Quarles, Our Eyes Our Open: https://www.artnet.com/artists/christina-quarles/oureyes-our-openare-eyes-are-open-KkMMBffmVkfu-2_j7LkbKw2

Caroline Walker, Threshold: https://www.phillips.com/detail/caroline-walker/UK010123/8

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ISSY WOOD (B. 1993), Serves You Right 5: https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-6452971

Hauser & Wirth, Paris: https://www.culturedmag.com/article/2023/10/12/hauser-and-wirthparis-gallery

Marian Goodman Gallery, New York: https://www.theartnewspaper.com/2023/02/23/mariangoodman-alexander-gray-moving-tribeca

Frieze Seoul - https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/05/ arts/design/seoul-art-gallery-museum-korea.html