Disaster Preparedness Guide 2024

DISASTER PREPAREDNESS GUIDE

NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

La Nina and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures are major drivers

NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, eight to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including four to seven major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in

of tropical activity

named storms predicted from NOAA’s 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Disaster Preparedness

Red Cross offers safety, preparedness advice ahead of hurricane season

With the 2024 hurricane season upon us, the American Red Cross is urging everyone to make their preparations now.

“The American Red Cross is taking this year’s forecast for an above average hurricane season very seriously,” said Allison Taylor, regional CEO of humanitarian services, Red Cross North Carolina region. “The American Red Cross works closely with local, state, and federal officials, along with partner community organizations, to respond to disasters and meet basic emergency needs before, during, and after disasters. With our disaster volunteers and partners ready to meet the needs of our communities, the North Carolina Region is ready to respond this season.”

The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially runs from June 1 through November 30 and early forecasts indicate there could be a near-record number of storms this year. Experts even warn that the first named storm could form before the season begins.

“We encourage everyone to take time now to get ready for potential disasters this spring and summer,” said Taylor. “You can do so by updating your emergency supply kit, building a plan, and staying informed of weather risks in your area.”

There are simple steps you can take to be prepared:

• Create an evacuation plan. Plan what to do in case you are separated from your family during an emergency and if you have to evacuate. Coordinate your plan with your child’s school, your work and your community’s emergency plans. Plan multiple routes to local shelters, register family members with special medical needs as required and make plans for pets. If you already have an emergency plan, update it and review with household members so everyone knows what to do if an emergency occurs.

• Build an emergency kit with a gallon of water per person, per day, non-perishable food, a flashlight, battery-powered radio, first aid kit, medications, supplies for an infant and pets if applicable, a multi-purpose tool, personal hygiene items, copies of important papers, cell phone chargers, extra cash, blankets, maps of the area and emergency contact information. If you already have a disaster kit, make sure the food and water is still okay to consume and that copies of important documents are up to date. • Be informed. Find out how local

See Red Cross, 9B

•

Since 1953, Atlantic tropical storms had been named from lists originated by the National Hurricane Center. They are now maintained and updated through a strict procedure by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization.

Six lists of names are used in rotation and re-cycled every six years, i.e., the 2023 list will be used again in 2029. The only time that there is a change in the list is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name for a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity, states NOAA. “If that occurs, then at an annual meeting by the WMO committee (called primarily to discuss many other issues) the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it.

Disaster Preparedness Guide

Several names have been retired since the lists were created.”

If a storm forms during the off-season, it will take the next name in the list based on the current calendar date. For example, if a tropical cyclone formed on December 28, it would take the name from the previous season’s list of names. If a storm formed in February, it would be named from the subsequent season’s list of names. In the event that more than 21 named tropical cyclones occur in the Atlantic basin in a season, any additional storms will take names from an alternate list of names approved by the WMO.

The following from nhc. noaa.gov explains more on hurricane names:

Reason to name hurricanes

Experience shows that the use of short, distinctive names in written as well as spoken communications is quicker and less subject to error than the older, more cumbersome latitude-longitude identification methods. These advantages are especially important in exchanging detailed storm information between hundreds of widely scattered stations, coastal bases, and ships at sea.

The use of easily remembered names greatly reduces confusion when two or more tropical storms occur at the same time. For example, one hurricane can be moving slowly westward in the Gulf of Mexico, while at exactly the same time another hurricane can be moving rapidly northward along the Atlantic coast. In the past, confusion and false rumors have arisen when storm advisories broadcast from radio stations were mistaken for warnings concerning an entirely different storm located hundreds of miles away.

History

of hurricane names

For several hundred years many hurricanes in the West Indies were named after the particular saint’s day on which the hurricane occurred. Ivan R. Tannehill describes in his book “Hurricanes” the major tropical storms of recorded history and mentions many hurricanes named after saints. For example, there was “Hurricane Santa Ana” which struck Puerto Rico with exceptional violence on July 26, 1825, and “San Felipe” (the first) and “San Felipe” (the second)

which hit Puerto Rico on September 13 in both 1876 and 1928.

Tannehill also tells of Clement Wragge, an Australian meteorologist who began giving women’s names to tropical storms before the end of the 19th century.

An early example of the use of a woman’s name for a storm was in the novel “Storm” by George R. Stewart, published by Random House in 1941, and since filmed by Walt Disney. During World War II this practice became widespread in weather map discussions among forecasters, especially Army and Navy meteorologists who plotted the movements of storms over the wide expanses of the Pacific Ocean.

In 1953, the United States abandoned a confusing two-year old plan to name storms by a phonetic alphabet (Able, Baker, Charlie) when a new, international phonetic alphabet was introduced. That year, the United States began using female names for storms.

The practice of naming hurricanes solely after women came to an end in 1978 when men’s and women’s names were included in the Eastern North Pacific storm lists. In 1979, male and female names were included in lists for the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. More information on the history of naming tropical cyclones and retired names may be found at nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames_history.shtml.

DANIELLE PULEO FILE PHOTO

The Outer Banks Motor Lodge sign in August 2020 humorously conveyed

hurricane

the midst of a pandemic.

Disaster Preparedness Guide

Cone of uncertainty updated

Coastal residents know the National Hurricane Center’s cone of uncertainty — the projected path a tropical cyclone may take — like they should know their evacuation routes. But the familiar graphic has gotten an update for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

More hazards outlined

The new map will debut around mid-August, the NHC says, just in time for the height of hurricane season. In addition to the familiar cone and the track of the storm’s center, it will also depict inland

tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings. This will help better convey the wind hazard risk, the center says. The updated graphic will still not depict inland flooding threats, which can be significant with landfalling tropical systems. However, the NHC says it may find a way to incorporate that in the near future.

What was wrong with the old one?

The NHC says the old cone graphic, which debuted in 2002, is often misunderstood. If your town is inside that cone, there’s a two-thirds

likelihood that you’ll see a direct hit from the landfalling storm. However, that doesn’t mean you won’t be affected at all if you live outside of it. Research from the University of Miami found that 40% of people don’t feel threatened if they live outside the cone, despite the size of a landfalling tropical system.

“Right from the start, the primary criticism of the cone was that it gave people the wrong impression that it indicated threat — if you’re inside of the cone, you’re in trouble, and if you’re outside of it, you’re fine,” said Brian McNoldy from the University of Miami Rosenstiel

School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science. “But that is not at all what it is designed to indicate and is a dangerous misinterpretation.”

The effects of climate change

On top of that, climate change appears to be causing hurricanes to grow more intense, more quickly.

Hurricane Ian in 2022, for instance, rapidly intensified off the coast of Florida into a high-end Category 4 storm. More than 100 people were killed in the confusion over the intensity and track of the storm, ranging from where the storm made landfall in southwest

Florida up to North Carolina and Virginia. In Lee County, Florida, which had a death toll of 72 from the storm, survivors said they thought the

core of the hurricane was headed for Tampa, not for their area. As recently as 72 hours before landfall, the county was not in the cone of uncertainty.

NCSU researchers predict active hurricane season

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will see 15 to 20 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin, according to researchers at North Carolina State University. The Atlantic basin includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

The number of named storms predicted is significantly higher than the long-term average, and moderately higher than recent 30-year averages, according to Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at NC State. The long-term (1951 to 2023) average of named storms is 11, and the more recent average (1994 to 2023) is 14 named storms.

Of the predicted 15 to 20 named storms, 10 to 12 may grow strong enough to become hurricanes (the historical average is six), with the possibility of three to four storms becoming major hurricanes.

The Gulf of Mexico will also see a slightly more active hurricane season. Of the 15 to 20 named storms predicted across the entire Atlantic basin, Xie’s data indicate the likelihood of five to seven named storms forming in the region, with two to four of them becoming hurricanes, and one to two becoming a major hurricane. Historic averages for the Gulf are three named storms and two hurricanes.

Xie’s methodology evaluates more than 100 years of historical data on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables, including weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures, to predict how many storms will form in each ocean basin. The forecast was made through a collaboration between NC State’s departments of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences and computer science. NC State adjunct assistant professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences Xia Sun also contributed to the research.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

Important contacts

Dare County Emergency Management – 252-475-5655

Dare Central Communications (Non-Emergency) – 252-473-3444

Tyrrell County Emergency Management – 252-796-1371

Hyde County Emergency Management – 252-542-0806

Currituck Emergency Management – 252-232-2115

Road conditions:

North Carolina: – 511

Virginia – 1-800-367-7623

N.C. Ferry Service – 1-800-293-3779

Utility companies

Dominion/N.C. Power – 1-866-366-4357

Cape Hatteras Electric Cooperative – 1-866-511-9862

Tideland Electric – 1-800-637-1079

Dare County Water Department – 252-475-5990

Spectrum – 833-267-6094

Century Link – 800-788-3600

Additional contacts

Outer Banks SPCA – 252-475-5620

U.S. Coast Guard (Sector N.C.) – 910-343-3880

N.C. Highway Patrol – 1-800-441-6127

Cape Hatteras National Seashore – 252-473-2111

N.C. Emergency Management - State EOC – 1-800-858-0368

Disaster Preparedness Guide

Documents you need

Emergency officials almost always advise people to make sure to bring your important documents with you. But what do they mean by that?

Keep reading to learn what you need to bring with you during an emergency.

Identification documents

For everyone in your home, including children and pets, make sure you have the following documents, Ready.gov says.

• Vital records, such as birth certificates, marriage certificates, divorce paperwork, adoption paperwork and child custody papers.

• Passports, driver’s licenses, Social Security cards, green cards, military service cards.

• Pet ownership papers and identification tags.

Financial and legal documents

These documents may be needed to get assistance from your insurance companies and from the government.

• Housing documentation, such as a lease or rental agreement, mortgage paperwork, home

equity line of credit documentation, deed.

• Vehicle documents, such as any loan paperwork, registration, title and the VIN.

• Any documents related to finances, such as utility bills, credit cards, student loans, alimony and child support documents, automatic payments.

• Documentation of checking, savings, retirement and investment accounts.

• Insurance policies for your personal property, including appraisals, photos and lists of valuable items.

• Pay stubs, proof of government benefits, alimony and child support.

• Tax statements.

• Estate planning documents, such as wills, trusts and power of attorney.

Medical documents

You should have medical information for everyone in your household, including:

• Health, dental and vision insurance paperwork. Anything related to Medicare, Medicaid and VA health benefits.

• A list of medications, immunizations, allergies, prescriptions, medical equipment and devices, pharmacy information.

• Living wills and medical power of attorney documentation.

• Caregiver agency contact and service agreements.

• Disabilities documentation.

• Contact information for all medical providers, including veterinarians.

Storing your documents safely

It may make you nervous to have all this important paperwork in one place, and it should. Keep paper copies of important documents in a fireproof and waterproof box or safe, Ready.gov says, in a bank safe deposit box or with a trusted friend or relative.

Store electronic copies of documents in a password-protected format on a removable flash or external hard drive in your fireproof and waterproof box or safe. You can also use a secure, cloud-based service.

Disaster Preparedness Guide

Before disaster strikes Keeping pets safe

Insurance is your first line of defense in an emergency, the Federal Emergency Management Agency says. Your insurance policies will give you the resources you need to get back on your feet quickly. However, FEMA says that more than half of all U.S. homeowners don’t carry adequate insurance to replace their home and contents. Here’s how to protect your property when the worst happens.

Document your property

A complete inventory, along with detailed photographs, will help you quickly replace your property. It will also help you determine how much insurance you need. Along with the photos, write thorough descriptions, including year, make and model numbers, when appropriate. For valuable items, such as artwork or jewelry, consider keeping a current appraisal where

If four-legged, finned and feathered friends are part of your family, your emergency plans need to take them into account. If local officials ask that you evacuate, Ready.gov says, your pets should evacuate, too. In many states, it’s illegal to leave your pets behind.

Planning for your pets

Like all emergency plans, it’s best to work on it before you need it. Have an evacuation plan for your pet, including where you can shelter. Many public shelters and hotels may not allow pets or may separate you from your animals. Have options for a safe place where you can take your pets in case you need to evacuate. If you are unable to evacuate your pets, have a plan with neighbors, friends or relatives to make sure someone can tend to them in your absence. Have your pets microchipped and keep the registration current with your address and phone number. Also include contact information for an emergency contact outside of your immediate area.

Build a kit

Just like you should have an emergency supply kit for the humans in your household, you should have one for your pets. Some items you may want to include are:

you can access it.

Types of insurance policies

Homeowner’s policies generally cover the home and other structures on the property, such as garages and fences; personal property such as furniture, clothing and appliances; loss of use of the property, which is compensation if you need to temporarily relocate because of covered damage; personal liability and medical protection.

Renter’s policies cover personal property, loss of use, personal liability, medical payments and some property damage to others for renters living in someone else’s property.

Business or commercial insurance will protect your business property and employees. Homebased businesses may not be covered under your homeowners; talk to your insurance professional about what policies you

need to cover businesses you run from your home.

Covered perils

FEMA says the insurance industry calls the cause of a loss a peril. You’ll want to know what perils your policies cover. Policies may have different coverages for different perils or may have different deductibles based on the peril. The Insurance Information Institute says that homeowners policies generally cover civil unrest, explosions, malfunctioning HVAC or sprinkler systems, falling objects, theft, fires or wildfires, tornadoes, hail, vehicular damage, hurricanes and volcanoes. Note that most policies do not cover damage from earthquakes and floods. Those events are covered by separate policies. Check your individual policies for details on what’s covered in your area and ask your insurance professionals about any gaps in your coverage.

• Several days of food in an airtight, waterproof container.

• A water bowl and several days of water.

• A supply of any medications your pet takes on a regular basis. Keep these in a waterproof container.

• First aid kit. You can talk to your veterinarian about what is most appropriate for your pet.

• A collar with an ID tag and harness or leash. Have copies of your pet’s registration information and other relevant documents in a waterproof container. Keep other copies safe electronically so that you can access them from anywhere.

• Travel bag, crate or carrier, one for each pet in your household.

• Grooming and sanitation items, including pet shampoo, litter and a litter box if needed, paper

towels and trash bags.

• Include a picture of you and your pet together so that if you’re separated from them you can document ownership and get the help you need.

• Favorite toys, treats or bedding to help reduce stress.

For large animals Livestock and other large animals will need to be evacuated as soon as possible. You should have primary and secondary routes mapped out well in advance of any emergency. Destinations should have food, water, veterinary care and handling equipment available. Also plan for any vehicles and trailers that you will need for transporting and supporting each type of animal, including experienced handlers and drivers.

Explaining disasters to children

For the youngest members of your family, emergency preparedness can be stressful at best and, at worst, deeply traumatic.

To keep children safe, it’s important for them to know, on an age-appropriate basis, about disasters, your family’s disaster plan and what to do in the event your family is adversely affected.

Talking to children

During discussions about emergencies and disasters, stay calm and reassure children that you are there to help them and keep them safe, advises Sesame Workshop, the makers of “Sesame Street.” Let them know that you can work together to get ready for emergencies and remind children to look for helpers to keep them safe in an emergency, such as teachers, firefighters, emergency responders, police officers, nurses and doctors, and more. Even if a parent is not around, teach your children to look for these helpers in case of an emergency. Encourage your children to ask questions. If you don’t know the answers, be honest and say that you don’t know, then ask for them to help you find answers.

Teach

your kids about 911

Talk to your children about dialing 911 and what to do. Nemours KidsHealth says that teaching kids in advance of an emergency can help keep them calm and safe during an actual emergency.

• Tell them to first take a deep breath and try to calm down.

• Call 911 and tell the operator that there is an emergency.

• Say your name and where you are. Say the exact address if you have it.

• Tell the operator what happened and how many people are hurt. Give as many details as you can.

• Follow the operator’s instructions carefully.

• Stay on the phone until the operator tells you to hang up.

Remind children that the best way to handle an emergency is to be prepared. For older children, it may be helpful to take basic first-aid classes. These may be offered by your local Red Cross, YMCA or YWCA, Scouts, 4-H clubs, hospitals, churches or other organizations.

Other ways to help If you see someone get hurt or need emergency help, Nemours

KidsHealth says kids should fight the urge to run in and help. Before doing that, children should make sure that the area is safe. If the child doesn’t feel safe or doesn’t know if it’s safe, they should wait in a safe place until help arrives. Even if your children don’t have a cell phone, teach them when, where and how to call for help. They should also know how to use cell phones that may be around, such as a parent’s or a caregiver’s phone.

Disaster Preparedness Guide

An evacuation checklist

Planning for a disaster is great, but having to execute that plan, especially on short notice, can rattle even the calmest people in your household.

Here’s a handy checklist that can help you and your family if you’re asked to evacuate.

• Always follow the instructions from local officials, Ready.gov says, and remember that you may be asked to evacuate on foot instead of in your vehicle.

• Download the FEMA app for a list of open shelters in your area.

• Listen to a battery-powered radio and follow instructions.

• Bring your family’s emergency supply kit.

• Leave early enough to avoid being trapped by severe weather.

• Call or email the outof-state contact in your family communications plan. Tell them where

you’re going and how you’re getting there.

• Secure your home by locking doors and windows.

• Unplug electrical equipment such as radios, televisions and small appliances.

• Leave freezers and refrigerators plugged in unless there is a risk of flooding.

• If you are instructed to do so, shut off water, gas and electricity before leaving.

• Leave a note telling others when you left and where you’re going.

• Wear sturdy shoes when you leave and clothing that provides some protection, such as long pants, long-sleeved shirts and a hat.

• Check with your neighbors in case anyone needs a ride.

• Follow recommended evacuation routes. Resist the urge to take

shortcuts; they may be blocked.

• Look out for washedout bridges and downed power lines. Don’t drive into flooded areas.

After a disaster, you may want to get home as quickly as possible. However, you should check with local officials both where you are and where you live before planning to return home. You should be prepared for disruptions to daily activities and remember you could be going into a dangerous situation.

Once you get the allclear, let friends and family know when you plan to leave, how you plan to get there and let them know when you arrive. Charge your devices and back-up batteries before you go, and make sure you have plenty of fuel. Bring supplies with you, such as water and non-perishable food.

Gallop Roofing and Remodeling – the real deal

Gallop Roofing and Remodeling, Inc. has been in business since 1952, making this company the real deal. Owner Rex Simpson is proud of the quality of work his company has offered customers since day one.

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As leaders in the roofing and remodeling industry, Gallop provides knowledge, expertise and the highest level of quality workmanship. The team is thorough, thoughtful and invested in guaranteeing clients complete satisfaction with minimal investment.

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Gallop offers a wide variety of services, including roof and leak repairs, Fortified roofing systems, exterior home repair, waterproof decking, gutter installation, insurance restoration and more!

Making sure each and every job that is taken on is done correctly and effectively is top priority for Simpson. Employee training is offered so that all staff are up to date on proper

A good majority of the work done by Gallop comes from referrals, which is a huge testa-

ment to who they are and their commitment to providing the best possible service.

Gallop Roofing & Remodeling, Inc. serves Northeastern North Carolina including the Outer Banks from Corolla to Ocracoke. Visit www.galloproofing.com to learn more about their services and contact them at 252-4732888 or info@galloproofing. com.

officials will contact you during a disaster and how you will get important information, such as evacuation orders. Download the free Red Cross First Aid app so you’ll know what to do if emergency help is delayed and the free Emergency app for weather alerts, open Red Cross shelter locations and safety steps for different emergencies.

Choose whether you want to view the content in English or Spanish with an easy-to-find language selector. Find these and all of the Red Cross apps in smartphone app stores by searching for the American Red Cross or going to redcross.org/apps. In addition to taking these preparedness steps, important safety information is also available on hurricanes at redcross.org/get-help/

how-to-preparefor-emergencies/ types-of-emergencies/ hurricane.html.

Because of extreme weather, the Red Cross is now launching nearly twice as many relief operations for major disasters than the organization did a decade ago. This growing need for assistance is prompting the Red Cross to increase its volunteer capacity so it can continue responding

on a near-constant basis. The need to help during disasters has never been greater. Visit redcross. org/volunteertoday to sign up for opportunities with your local chapter. Most-needed disaster positions include supporting shelters and providing health services.

• Shelter support: Help at a shelter during a large disaster by welcoming and registering residents, serving meals, setting up

cots, distributing blankets and personal hygiene kits, and providing information and other assistance to people in need.

• Health services: Volunteers who can use their professional skills as a licensed health care provider to deliver handson support, including care and education to people staying at a shelter during a large disaster, are also needed.

• Disaster action team: While big disasters get the most news coverage, smaller emergencies, such as home fires, are no less devastating to those affected. Join your local Disaster Action Team to help families in need by providing food, lodging, comfort, recovery assistance and other support.

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the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.

“With another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s commitment to keeping every American informed with life-saving information is unwavering,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “AI-enabled language translations and a new depiction of inland wind threats in the forecast cone are just two examples of the proactive steps our agency is taking to meet our mission of saving lives and protecting property.”

“Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today,” said FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks. “Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow.”

As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development. This hurricane season

also features the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which can produce African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longer-lived Atlantic storms. Finally, light trade winds allow hurricanes to grow in strength without the disruption of strong wind shear, and also minimize ocean cooling. “Human-caused climate change is warming our ocean globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting ice on land, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge. Sea level rise represents a clear human influence on the damage potential from a given hurricane,” stated NOAA.

Enhanced communications in store for 2024 season

NOAA will implement improvements to its forecast communications, decision support and storm recovery efforts this season. These include:

• The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will expand its offering of Spanish language text products to include all public advisories, the tropical cyclone discussion, the tropical cyclone update and key messages in the Atlantic basin.

• Beginning on or around August 15, NHC will start to issue an experimental version of the forecast cone graphic that includes a depiction of inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental U.S. Research indicates that the addition of inland watches and warnings to the cone graphic will help communicate inland hazards during tropical cyclone events without overcomplicating the current

Disaster Preparedness Guide

version of the graphic.

• This season, the NHC will be able to issue U.S. tropical cyclone watches and warnings with regular or intermediate public advisories. This means that if updates to watches and warnings for storm surge or winds are needed, the NHC will be able to notify the public in an intermediate advisory instead of having to wait for the next full advisory issued every six hours.

New tools for hurricane analysis and forecasting this year

• Two new forecast models developed by NOAA researchers will go into operation this season: The Modular Ocean Model or MOM6 will be added to the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System to improve the representation of the key role the ocean plays in driving hurricane intensity. Another model, SDCON, will predict the probability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification.

• NOAA’s new generation of Flood Inundation Mapping will provide information to emergency and water managers to prepare and respond to potential flooding and help local officials better prepare to protect people and infrastructure.

• NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, in partnership with the NHC, will issue an experimental rainfall graphic for the Caribbean and Central America during the 2024 hurricane season. This graphic provides forecast rainfall totals associated with a tropical cyclone or disturbance for a specified time period.

System upgrades in operation

NOAA will upgrade its observing systems critical in understanding and forecasting hurricanes. These projects will provide more observations of the ocean and atmosphere in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, on the U.S. East Coast and in the tropical Atlantic.

• NOAA’s National Data Buoy Center recently upgraded many coastal weather buoys in the tropical western Atlantic and Caribbean to include time of occurrence and measurements of one-minute wind speed and direction, 5-second peak wind gust and direction and lowest 1-minute barometric pressure to support tropical cyclone forecasting.

• New this year, NOAA will gather additional

observations using Directional Wave Spectra Drifters (DWSDs), deployed from the NOAA P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft and in the vicinity of Saildrones, uncrewed surface vehicles which will be deployed at the start of the hurricane season, providing one-minute data in real time. Eleven to 12 Saildrones are planned for deployment in 2024.

• Starting in June, dozens of observational underwater gliders are planned to deploy in waters off the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the eastern U.S. coast. Additionally, a new lightweight dropsonde called Streamsonde will be deployed into developing tropical storms, collecting multiple real-time observations to collect valuable wind data.

• The CHAOS (Coordin-

ated Hurricane Atmosphere-Ocean Sampling) research experiment aims to improve the understanding of air-sea interactions, providing sustained monitoring of key ocean features.

About NOAA seasonal outlooks

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. In addition to the Atlantic seasonal outlook, NOAA also issues seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern Pacific, central Pacific and western north Pacific hurricane basins. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2024 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season.