TCR Volume 4 Number 1 by The CenSEI Report

Strategic Analysis and Research by the

To the best of our knowledge, an Oracle database hasn’t been broken into for a couple of decades by anybody. ~ Larry Ellison, founding CEO of Internet equipment behemoth Oracle, on cybersnooping concerns

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Of all of the commercial databases, Oracle is the least secure.

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commenting on Ellison’s remark in an email to Reuters

02 03

Rich Countries Are Set to Take the Driver’s Seat

BUSINESS Going Against the Grain Some business leaders advise us to be open to making mistakes and bending the rules now and then

Center for Strategy, Enterprise & Intelligence provides expertise in strategy and management, enterprise development, intelligence, Internet and media. For subscriptions, research, and advisory services, please e-mail report@censeisolutions.com or call/fax +63-2-5311182. Links to online material on public websites are current as of the week prior to the publication date, but might be removed without warning. Publishers of linked content should e-mail us or contact us by fax if they do not wish their websites to be linked to our material in the future.

TECHNOLOGY Your Fridge’s Online

Our show-and-tell of the most interesting new gadgets at the annual Las Vegas dazzler

ASEAN Stays on the Fence

The global chocolate giant hopes to feed a growing Chinese appetite for chocolate

body lab

GEOPOLITICS

Hershey Buys a Shanghai Candy King

Citing possible liver damage from overdosage, U.S. authorities move to limit how much acetaminophen may be put in a pill

The Internet of Things, predicts one expert, may roll out big this year, even as others warn of unpredictable consequences

Deal and No Deal

Amid overlapping territorial claims on the high seas, the Association of Southeast Asian

A Soft Landing for China?

A quick look at the World Trade Organization’s new accord

When Painkillers Kill

ECONOMY

and Europe grapples with its shift from investment-led to consumption-led growth

perspective

Developed countries will steer the world economy upward this year, while emerging economies deal with speed bumps

supergraphic

HEALTH landmark report on tobacco, more people are smoking than ever — and dying from it

February 4, 2014

Asia Goes Phablet Sales of smartphone-tablet hybrids have surged phenomenally since their largely ignored launch two years ago

you gotta see this

SOCIETY Oxfam tells the 2014 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, one big reason to uplift the poor: inequaliity is squeezing economies

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perspective

Galloping Into 2014 The continuing political crisis in Thailand has already cost life and limb, shut down government ministries, and forced a parliamentary election scheduled for February 2, and a state of emergency in the capital.

A Joyful New Year to all, in both the Western calendar beginning on the 1st of January, and the East Asian one, making of The CenSEI Report. As the item-packed Contents page shows, there are many more articles in the issue, covering a wide range of topics, from last December’s World Trade Organization accord forged in Bali, Indonesia, to the Perspective on how business is hit by Thailand’s political turmoil, reaching a high point with the February 2 parliamentary elections.

Now, business is feeling the heat from the picket lines, including global industry giants which have manufactured cars, electronics, appliances, and other goods out of the kingdom for decades. Here are laments from the executive suite, and wise or wild guesses on where the political battles are headed.

The shorter but more varied articles are written as part of the business model recasting by the Center for Strategy, Enterprise & Intelligence. The new thrust envisions a website- and app-based service providing strategic monitoring, assessment and action recommendations on major events within a day after they hit the headlines. warns a Toyota executive Wochit

the topic developments. At the same time, CenSEI analysts and editors made sure that any prognoses and prescriptions put forward would be valid for the coming weeks or months, not just a few days.

Bummed in the Boardroom ~ Virat Jaturaphutphitak, vice president of the Association of Thai Travel Agents, speaking to Associated Press (AP)

multinational’s market strategy for China, plus the lessons it holds for other top consumer brands looking to enter or

World and national economic prospects are, of course, a staple of end-year and New Year reports. However, along with year-ahead prognoses in the Economy section, a Society article spotlights a longstanding trend underscored in the recent years of global economic malaise: The grossly unequal distribution of global wealth stunts growth, hitting the assets and enterprises of the wealthy. Plainly, as the world rides into 2014 and beyond, both haves and have-nots are on the same steed. And like Asian nations in the Geopolitics report on South China Sea tensions, we all have to learn how to share and work for the good of all. The alternative would be the debacle of everyone.

The perception from foreign clients is pretty bad.

Business stops and is put on hold. also to AP

Assuming the political woes go on, foreign investors may decide to shift to other countries like Indonesia, quoted by Reuters

Tough Road Back from the Brink they cannot pull back even one step. in AP report On February 2, we will completely shut down Bangkok. Roads will be turned into pedestrian walkways and people will not have to go to vote. ~ Anti-government protest leader Stump Thaugsuban campaigning for election boycott, reported in The Nation newspaper Thailand is a divided nation. This can be easily observed daily on the streets of Bangkok. The challenge is that the division is profound and will not easily be mended. The National Interest

Looking at the Bright Side This is a good time for buyers to discover new destinations, especially those in the provinces bordering the Greater Travel trade buyers see the evolving political situation as a temporary phenomena. There is tremendous sympathy and the feedback from everyone that once everything returns to normal, Thailand will back in full strength. ~ Tourism Authority of Thailand Governor Thawatchai Arunyik, addressing ASEAN Tourism Forum

Thailand proves that south-east Asia is a region to watch. Decades of prosperity have created the conditions for political transformation – for better and for worse. reprinted in realclearworld.com

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February 4, 2014

ECONOMY

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2014 Global Economic Outlook

The Rich World Gets Ready to Lead the Way

emerging economies lose steam, it looks like the more advanced economies will be driving growth in 2014.

A key theme for 2014, he suggests, is that aggressively easy monetary policy in most developed countries is expected to support an acceleration of global economic growth.

As advanced economies recover, they World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, released in October, the drivers of growth are shifting to the advanced economies as â&#x20AC;&#x153;China and a growing number of emerging market economies are coming

economic information provider , says, in a video presentation, that as advanced economies begin to

economies are expected to remain above those of levels seen in recent years because of cyclical and structural reasons, the report says.

developed world, such as the United States and Europe, will remain high mostly because growth he says, is that commodity prices will in the past year, which will reduce

will strengthen against most currencies because U.S. growth will be stronger than the growth that will be experienced in Europe and Japan.

says, in a

growth is expected to rise to 3.6% in 2014 from 2.9% in 2013

, that the acceleration in global growth should be led by the developed world as it recovers from past economic

The U.S. economy is expected to get stronger in 2014, paced by strong performances from the manufacturing and construction sectors

the four main causes for faster growth should be: past and ongoing moderation in the post-crisis deleveraging of the private sector, and moderate energy prices, given the expansion of new sources of energy, particularly in the United States.

productivity and addressing its growing credit problem

Chief economist at IHS Nariman Behravesh says as advanced economies begin to recover, they will pull the emerging markets as well IHS

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and developing economies as a whole according to the

â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s , released

challenges continue to weigh on Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s

February 4, 2014

The U.S. economy is poised for stronger growth in 2014, particularly with solid growth in manufacturing and construction . Factory activity in December, the report notes, stayed near a 2½-year high. “Americans are buying more cars and homes, increasing demand for steel, furniture and

meet that demand and may add jobs at a

Academic economists and former policy makers believe U.S. economic growth will accelerate in 2014, according to a Jan. 4 piece

In a December piece posted on the Council of Foreign Relations site, international economics expert Robert

Emerging markets will capture just over half of world GDP by 2025

in 2014 after two years of decline. Still, the problem with this forecast, he notes, is that growth at this level

DIStrIButIoN of WorlD GDP IN 2000, 2012, aND 2025

Emerging markets constituted almost half of world Gross from about one-third in 2000, as shown in the following

2000

A critical threat to Europe’s future is that youth

2012 “Continued bank deleveraging, an uncertain global growth outlook that will restrain exports, excessively tight macroeconomic policies, and an incomplete framework for monetary union provide powerful

Outlook 2014 report. The shift is expected to continue in the next decade, albeit at a much slower pace. By 2025, it notes, emerging markets will capture just over half of world

process. European leaders, he adds, will have to make a better case for economic and political union or risk another crisis in 2014.

2025

largest economy in the world.

with appropriate policies, there is no reason for pessimism about the future of the U.S. economy.

Europe

18% in 2025, down from 26%

Other mature

if there is one major uncertainty about the future of the global economy, it’s China, according to investor and philanthropist in a Jan. 2 article

China

the other hand, will comprise

India

also notes in the report that the U.S. is faring better than most other industrial nations in getting back to its pre-crisis output per capita.

Latin America

tipped to decline to 18% from 23% in 2000.

Other emerging

conditions in the U.S. before the crash of 2008. Global Economic Outlook 2014, The Conference Board

Euro zone will barely reach potential The euro zone, however, is not out of the that the global growth will pick up modestly in 2014 for advanced and emerging economies. In his that most advanced economies, including the euro

secular stagnation in many advanced economies, of years of underinvestment in human and physical capital. And the structural reforms that these economies need to boost their potential growth will

Further, while the euro zone’s tail risks (low-probability, high-impact shocks) are lower, fundamental problems in the euro zone remain unresolved, Roubini adds. Low potential growth, high unemployment, rising levels of public debt, and extremely tight credit rationing due to the banks’ ongoing de-leveraging are some of the challenges confronting the region.

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model relied on repression of the household sector in order to drive the growth of exports and investments.

leading to an exponential rise in the use of various

February 4, 2014

Signs that the third-biggest economy is losing steam are showing. In December, growth in China’s services industries slowed, mirroring a slowdown in manufacturing. A report says that

A survey by China’s National Bureau of Statistics revealed a service-sector

leaders to ignite the capital economy with major infrastructure investments that support urban development. Further, reforms in its one-child policy will substantially increase birthrates, contributing up to two million new children to the 2014 economy, he notes.

of labor still trapped in low-productivity rural activities or smaller cities and increasing the role of

Emerging markets with fewer As for the emerging economies, Roubini notes that emerging markets with fewer macroeconomic,

Dominic Wilson says, in a December video, that the emerging world on average is expected to perform better in 2014 than in the previous year, the progress, he says, will come from the external environment, particularly with the improved status

Can China avoid the middle-income trap?

economic performance is likely to improve are those which have more exposure to the developed markets, as in exports.

Czech Republic in Europe; Chile, dropped to 50.9 in December, its lowest since August 2011. is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. Also cited in the report is a similar survey conducted by a slowdown in service-sector growth to a four-month

Emerging Asian economies are Committee laid out a bold policy framework in order to achieve a sustainable growth path. In the Council of Foreign Relations piece, , senior associate in the Asia program of the Carnegie Endowment , says these policy changes are essential if China is to evade the middle-income

remained above the 50-point level, which is the dividing line between expansion and contraction, the report notes.

investment rates and ready access to low-cost labor is no longer plausible. Instead, he notes,

economies. Roubini suggests emerging economies will grow faster on year. This is because brisker recovery from the advanced economies will boost imports from these emerging emerging economies continue to urbanize and industrialize, their rising middle classes will spur consumer demand for goods

The remains optimistic about China’s future. In a

Silverstein says the Chinese economy “is destined

and Rwanda in Africa; and

markets will remain fragile this

“The two most promising areas of productivityboosting reform are those that will facilitate a

year, namely India, Indonesia,

Chief markets economist Dominic Wilson says the emerging world is expected to perform better this year than in 2013 with the improved conditions in the developed economies

from 2014 to 2018, according to the 2014 Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Development Centre by robust domestic demand, strong infrastructure spending, and implementation of structural reforms, Indonesia is projected to enjoy an

) countries which are projected to grow at a robust pace include: Cambodia

Goldman Sachs

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February 4, 2014

9 1

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China’s Economic Growth in 2014: Half-Speed Ahead? but it was achieved by loosening credit, not stronger-than-expected economic performance While some see a long-awaited re-balancing away from investment and toward domestic consumption, others are not so sure this is happening fast enough

A by Dexter Roberts focuses on concerns over China’s local-government debt – 17.9 balances that with “clear indication that spending power at the lower end of the income pyramid is turning more borrowing came from bank loans – down from

Another blog post, this one by Carlos Tejada in the Wall Street Journal’s China in Real Time Report, wonders, however, how much China’s consumers actually contributed to the country’s economic growth in

reported in Reuters on Jan. 20, China’s

averting a 14-year low, prompting some to predict continuing deceleration ahead.

head of China’s statistics bureau, that a trend of ambitious investment by local Chinese governments – of China’s investment drive, and must now be checked.

economic growth rate matched that of 2012, and was just the forefront of China’s investment drive in recent years, capital formation accounted for 54 percent of economic

In a Financial Times blog post (registration required),

overall growth, as evidenced by factory output growth consumption, is underway. continuing to drop for a third consecutive month, and oil

at which boosted the share of investment. For all the cautious optimism of some over the Chinese government’s good intentions, however, others warn of the dangers of its postponing the inevitable by continuing its stimulus spending.

A warns that China’s economic growth is masking troubling regional trends, with imbalances due to over-investment and income disparities actually worsening. According to the report, “Although the central government hopes to shake the dependence on investment, local governments are scrambling to build new housing developments to jack

A Quartz dispatch

China’s statistics bureau.

domestic consumption in lieu of investments and

and consumption taxes, and a shift of some local government expenses to the national government. The

that the share of household consumption in gross

Ambitious investment by local Chinese governments that

According to the Reuters report, China is aiming to restructure its economy by reducing government

The post reports that localities have been authorized to while other measures are being considered to help local governments, including a local-property tax, resource

review of quarterly national accounts and household

by local governments trying to jack up local growh rates

bonds and the country’s barely regulated shadow banking network.

in the second half of the year, and warns that the government might have to continue spending and keep credit growth booming in order to maintain the current pace of economic growth. The consequences of that could be more government investment in infrastructure and businesses taking on more debt (the

developments there will result in homes that can accommodate 5 million people, which would exceed occupancy rate, according to a local worker quoted in

estate, and other services) eclipsed the secondary sector (including industry and construction businesses) in both

the economy, which outperformed the secondary sector’s

existing debts, we’re reminded), all of which will lead to much lower growth in the future. The sooner the government recognizes the necessity of fundamental reforms and consequent lower growth in the

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both

and Japan, as documented in separate

February 4, 2014

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The

World Trade Organization (WTO Indonesia meeting on Dec. 7 with its 159 member-nations agreeing to a unanimous trade-liberalization accord multilateral agreement in its 18-year history, as

The , as the WTO refers to the accord, is highlighted by agreements on trade facilitation that promise to cut red tape and speed up port clearances, as well as issues related to trade facilitation, and food security in developing countries and cotton and a number of other provisions for least developed countries. The trade-facilitation decision involves speeding up customs procedures to promote clarity, assistance to developing and least-developed countries in updating their infrastructure

STRATEGY POINTS

estimates that between $400 billion to $1 trillion will be added to the world economy by reducing

agreement, but a closer review reveals

The agreement on food security, as the WTO put it, focused largely on shielding public food-stockholding programs in developing countries from legal challenges. As reported

much a work in progress Interim agreements and continuing pledges aside, the major accomplishment of the accord might have been in buying time for a broader agreement to be negotiated without scuttling progress already achieved

says the accord is “no game changer for the poor”

boiled down to a compromise between the United States and India, where India and other developing countries would not have to classify public spending on food-security stockpiles as agricultural subsidies, as long as crop surpluses thereby distort world trade. The WTO regards this as an interim solution, and has set up a program for producing a permanent solution in four years.

Another agriculture-related issue was “ administration quota is to be handled, as in re-allocated among other traders, when the quota is persistently agreed on a combination of consultation and providing information in these instances, with six countries reserving the right to opt out of the system after six years.

rules that stand in the way of developing countries’

As posted on the Oxfam site characterized the trade facilitation agreement as “(I)ts gains have been grossly overestimated, while the costs of implementation for poorer countries were

Other agreements held over summit in 2009 included strong political statements pledging to keep low export subsidies and other measures with , and to improve market access for cotton products from least developed countries and provide development assistance for production in those countries.

of a unanimous accord among 159 members notwithstanding, some analysts think the major actual accomplishment of the accord was in buying time for a broader agreement

all best endeavor is the trade negotiators equivalent of

decisions are unlikely to for poor countries. It is all best endeavor language, which is the trade negotiators

Oxfam senior policy adviser

world isn’t holding its breath waiting for a comprehensive trade agreement to emerge from the WTO, what with major regional trade pacts being negotiated between the United States and Europe (Trans-Atlantic Trade and

Looking at the accord from another perspective, Oxfam senior policy

negotiations on food security alive ... negotiators now

And his reaction to the statements pledging to help least-developed countries was particularly

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(

The Council on Foreign Relations provides an analysis liberalization at their own pace.

February 4, 2014

GEOPOLITICS

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Between Chinese and Southeast Asian Territorial Claims, ASEAN Tries to Stay Squarely in the Middle

ainan Island’s implementation this month of its law requiring foreign vessels administers, has put the Association of Southeast

“On the regional and international issues, the foreign ministers stressed the importance

condemned the move, while the United States and Japan expressed grave concern as a group will react.

centrality in the evolving regional architecture in addressing the issues of common interest of

17-19. The 10-nation grouping did not cite the

said in language similar to the Commemorative Summit

importance of maintaining peace and stability, maritime security, freedom of navigation and Channel rather than an adversarial stance against any state.

agency added. Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario tried to get his fellow ministers to echo his strong line As reported by Rappler, the former ambassador to Washington told his counterparts at the meeting: “We are gravely concerned by this new regulation ... This development escalates tensions, unnecessarily complicates the situation in the South China Sea, and threatens the peace and stability of the in the East

While the Philippines pushed for a tough line for “self-restraint” instead

likely preserve neutrality

communique in December. “The ministers also discussed ways to further contribute to the peace, stability and prosperity of the region

Myanmar plays honest appeared to take a neutral stance toward contentious issues in the South China Sea. Indeed, this year’s

between fellow member nations and China. “Our friendly relationship with China and membership can have good relations with both sides and be impartial and friendly to CenSEI Map based on “Governing the South China Sea,” by David rosenberg,

headlined top daily The Philippine Star, repeated on its website.

deputy information minister and presidential

Harvard Asia Quarterly

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February 4, 2014

supergraphic

told The Irrawaddy publication. Until its democratic reforms starting in early 2011 thawed ties with the West, dependent on its close economic relationship with China, calling each other paukphaw, or

to play honest broker, making sure to take no sides in disputes with China, if the latter is to be nudged toward productive COC talks.

From the artists at comes “The ,” which offers a one-stop guide to just about every cup of coffee you might imagine, and what it takes to make events in a manner that China becomes motivated for sensitivities on issues of DOC and COC and accepts

a tough stance on the South

siblings, in the majority with Southeast Asia. Late last

the grouping, fearful of being snubbed by Western nations unhappy with its ruling junta. Thein Sein, the country is keen to show its diplomatic mettle as

to extra course) and the production method (steeping, pouring, steeping in a vacuum, to pressure-cooking in a vacuum) to the

a French press, and topped off with a splash of milk and a dash of sugar, but of course, your tastes might differ. The actual 24“x 18” print will cost $28, and comes with a selection something for hanging on your wall, but if you just want to brush up on your coffee choices from connection to look.

region one and a half times, to $1 trillion by 2020, and pledged to work toward joining the Regional

binding Code of Conduct (COC) Declaration governing activities in the South China

play honest broker, making sure to take no sides in disputes with China, if the latter is to be nudged toward productive COC talks.

Asian infrastructure bank to fund projects, probably prompting Japan to come up with its own $20-billion package of grants and loans for 2014-18.

not want a repeat of the open discord at the 2012

South Asia think tank in his paper, “South China of being friends with the big powers in the region. “In

Thailand’s The Nation daily. the same this year and beyond.

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February 4, 2014

BUSINESS

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a Jan. 10 article style in his reply, Spiegel positioned himself

shared their thoughts on what it means to abandon the fear of making a mistake and how taking a chance by bending the rules can bring about fresh, new rules. Launched

that Facebook’s subsequent pursuit of Snapchat –

partially related to the fact that Spiegel played hard to get, and dialed down his enthusiasm

Doing the wrong things at work can lead to success

sectors and read their blog posts across the network, according to an October 2012 report in TechCrunch.

and co-founder of

, shares, “There is

In a January article in Inc., Steve Cody, cofounder and managing partner of marketing , cites his experience when his

more value in my continuing to test and be smart than there would be if I were crippled by the fear of

company was starting out. Instead of viewing big competitors as enemies, he says, view them as

post if he feels he did something wrong.

was not a threat to the giants in the industry, he decided to invite the CEOs of those big companies for a drink and ask them to send him any prospect that was “either too small for them or that they

you are trying to impress someone, rather than going for the time-tested rules of communication,

relates, “Several large competitors did just that and ended up sending me hundreds of thousands

for New York Magazine, in a Jan. 8 post, cites the casual response of Snapchat founder Evan Spiegel

meet with him in the Facebook headquarters.

STRATEGY POINTS

Spiegel, Roose writes, to calm down, reply with a courteous e-mail, praise him in return, and arrange to

abandoning fear of making a mistake and taking a chance at bending the rules at work

Spiegel, whose photo-disappearing app was not yet a freedom to make mistakes and don’t second-guess

Doing things that go against conventional wisdom can translate into gains in business

In business, doing the wrong things, whether intentional or accidental, has the potential to turn into gains. We’ve seen leaders thrive by being unorthodox, such as the late Apple founder Steve . In an October 2012 feature in Entrepreneur about

“T hanks :) would be happy to meet—I’ll let you know when I make it up to t he Bay Area”

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an employee’s work.

February 4, 2014

19 POINT & CLICK Access online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures, graphics, and words in blue their disposable incomes grow, they will represent

ethic would be just as popular as it was in the States.

According to a acquisition marks one of the company’s largest

850 workers.

compete to develop new products that cater to the tastes of the Chinese market, the report points out.

is that it came late to China, just when growth was slowing down. Another is that it tried to bring the

overall distribution capabilities, especially within the traditional trade, is an opportunity for us to

cheap, people tend to hire a handyman than do the repairs themselves.

The move makes sense, given China’s fast-growing

in the article.

market by buying a local company called Eachnet and switching it to

market is largely untapped, according to a Dec. 17 Quartz article

Any foreign company looking to enter China must learn to read the local market well and adapt quickly to its unique needs and characteristics or risk failure.

nited States candy maker has agreed to buy in its bid to expand its presence

Dec. 19 story. The purchase, the report says, has an enterprise value of $584 million, with the company’s Dutch unit paying $498 million will give the maker of assortment

and Reese’s

to be completed in mid-2014, and the remainder will be purchased by the Dutch subsidiary in 2015.

Feeding China’s Chocolate Taste

more than half of the world’s population, it accounts Still, in 2010, China became the second-biggest confectionery market in Asia with $9.5 billion in sales, according to a 2012 report from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Data from Euromonitor 2011 cited in the report reveals total confectionery sales is expected to be the fastest-growing confectionery

agreement to buy Shanghai Golden Businessweek reports

A suggests that while the global market for chocolate is still dominated by

The move comes as foreign companies compete to develop products catering to growth in 2011, according to the report.

Any foreign company looking to invest in and adapt quickly or risk failure

“Other emerging economies with youthful populations and an acquisitive middle class are likely to develop a taste for chocolate and, as

in 2004. Two years later, they shut down their portal, as local competitor Taobao went on to capture market share, says

failed to incorporate a mechanism to

A piece in looks at four of the biggest U.S. companies that failed to conquer China’s market. Depot, Atlantabased provider of power tools and building materials, entered China thinking that the

China became the second-biggest confectionery market in asia with almost $9.5 billion in sales, according to a 2012 report from agriculture and agrifood Canada, citing data from Euromonitor, 2011 Consumer Trends: Confectionery in China, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, March 2012

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February 4, 2014

social connections—an important component of local business deals and government contracts. Taobao, on the other hand, allowed prospective buyers and sellers to chat over instant messaging, thereby establishing personal connections between the parties.

HEALTH

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TOBACCO’S BIGGER AND DEADLIER CLOUD OF SMOKE BLANKETS EARTH

Source: World Health Organization

January 11, a landmark report of the United on smoking and its detrimental

recounted in a Jan. 4 report in The Seattle Times, Terry released an “emphatic and authoritative report that said smoking causes illness and death—and the government should do something

A landmark report of the U.S. Surgeon General on the effects of smoking on health marked its 50th anniversary on January 11

In the decades that followed, warning labels were placed on cigarette packs, cigarette commercials were banned, and taxes were raised to keep people from smoking. While the smoking rate in the

to deadly diseases, such as lung, liver, and colorectal cancers

experts predict Americans will continue to light up for decades to come.

six million people die every year because of the “tobacco epidemic,” and 80% of the middle-income countries

be associated with avoidance of 8 million premature deaths and an extended mean lifespan of 19-20

A study published in January in the Journal of the American Medical Association

Fifty years after the U.S. surgeon-general linked cigarette smoking to deadly diseases, his successors continue to add to the list of health problems related to tobacco use, according to a Jan. 17 report in The Washington Post. In a recently released report, smoking is a cause of liver cancer and colorectal cancer. In addition, it was found that smoking is a cause of Type 2 diabetes mellitus, age-related macular degeneration, erectile dysfunction, and rheumatoid arthritis. It can, likewise, impair the immune system, worsen asthma, and cause cleft lips and palates in fetuses. Exposure to secondhand smoke, meanwhile, can cause strokes. Smokers today, the report adds, have a much higher risk of developing lung cancers than did smokers

documenting health consequences both from active smoking and exposure to secondhand smoke across

According to a fact sheet Organization, the tobacco epidemic is the biggest public-health threats, killing nearly six million billion smokers live in low- and middle-income countries. Further, consumption of tobacco products is increasing globally, though it is decreasing in some high-income and upper middle-income related deaths could increase to eight million per

In a graphic the Far East are by far the largest consumers (2,715 billion cigarettes), followed by the Americas (745 billion), Eastern Europe and Former Soviet

in the design and composition of cigarettes over

17.7 million deaths were related to smoking. from these reports have evolved from a few causal

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billion, and Indonesia 215 billion.

February 4, 2014

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Painkillers: U.S. FDA to Limit the Amount of Acetaminophen in Your Prescription Pills

reports that the United Statesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is preparing to start withdrawing its approval of combination prescription painkillers that contain more than its acetaminophen per dose.

the FDA says that there is no

Acetaminophen, a popular ingredient in prescription and over-the-counter painkillers, has been linked to liver damage when taken in excessive amounts

is moving to limit the acetaminophen content in prescription drugs to 325 mg per dose

concern that acetaminophen is also available in over-the-counter remedies, and as such, can be taken in doses that exceed its recommended daily dose

taking more than that amount outweighs the risk of liver damage from taking too much acetaminophen. The FDAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s maximum recommended daily dose of acetaminophen is 4,000 milligrams.

unaware that many products (both prescription and over-the-counter) contain acetaminophen, making it easy

FDA as saying in a statement. the FDA warning covers only prescription medication, and not over-the-counter drugs, which the FDA says it will address in the future. Graphics data from Drugs. com

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February 4, 2014

body lab

Another reason to encourage

healt hy habit s

Accidental Deaths by Acetaminophen Poisoning no. of death year

189 2009

135 2003

prescription drugs with higher doses remain on the market.

167 2006

166 2010 143 2002

According to the report, the development comes on the heels of a 2011 FDA request that manufacturers limit the amount of acetaminophen in prescription drugs by January 2014, with which more than half of the

182 2007

174 2008

150 136 2004

in your children

144 2001 131 2005

primer on acetaminophen overdose in reporting that “Acetaminophen overdose is one of the most common poisonings on possible symptoms and treatment of acetaminophen overdose, which can lead to liver failure and death in a few days if left untreated.

A Jan. 9 ScienceDaily dispatch reports that a recent study has young men to a reduced risk of heart attack later in life. The study by researchers from Umea University,

underwent medical examination at the age of 18 as part of their conscription into national service from 1969 to 1984, found that 18 had a 35% lower risk of premature heart attack. The study, which was published in the European Heart Journal, also found that men who were

1,567

Number of people who have died from 50 2010 2001 through from inadvertently taking too much acetaminophen

A September dispatch from news-aggregation site reported that in the decade from 2001-2010, over 150 Americans a year have died of acetaminophen overdose, based on

Cause of Death presented in an investigation journalism site

Tylenol, the U.S. leader in acetaminophen sales. site provides its own acetaminophen primer, which provides more detailed dosing and drug-interaction information.

? If nothing else, the beginning of the year, for fairly obvious reasons, is a time when we believe anything is possible.

FDA foot-dragging over the regulation of acetaminophen since the 1970s, in the face of

study involved monitoring the men for an average of 34 years, until they suffered a heart attack or died, or until Jan. 1, 2011,

At the same time, however, Nordstrom acknowledged that while the study established and reduced heart-attack risk,

might reduce heart-attack risk correspondingly, explaining that

obese in their teens had a higher

100

risk of heart attack than that of

for bold predictions about the year ahead, whether or not they actually come to pass.

the dispatch regarding the bioprinting company Organovo expectation that it will come organ – a human liver – in 2014, based on its advances in printing out liver tissue and maintaining its viability.

end of your teens can reduce and heart disease was complex. alone does not appear to fully compensate for the risks with being overweight or obese. In other words, having a normal weight is more important than being in good physical shape, and have a normal weight,” one of the lead researchers, Peter Nordström, was quoted as saying in the dispatch.

promised organ will be “for research use only and will be used in the laboratory for medical studies and drug research,” and that future implantable organs still have to undergo rigorous government review before being approved for clinical purposes. Nonetheless, it says that a bio-printed liver would be “a watershed moment for the bioprinting industry and medicine because

Nonetheless, according to him, “As far as we know, this is the the relationship between physical of heart attack later in life … these results and these types of study are important for the planning of preventative public health programs.”

bio-printed organs for transplants might still be off by a decade or more, the creation of human organ tissue still holds the prospect only because this would allow pharmaceutical companies to test drugs on human organs with better accuracy than they might get using animal organs.

tissue can be kept alive long enough to test the effects of drugs on it or implant it in a human body where it can further develop.” According to the dispatch, even if

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Video from taiwanese animation site tomoNews uS explains the liver-tissue printing process utilized by bio-printing

February 4, 2014

TECHNOLOGY

28 POINT & CLICK Access online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures, graphics, and words in blue

The Internet of Things

Will 2014 be the year it takes off?

things onto more people, whether they want it there in on the opportunity to sell energy-saving or homesecurity applications, he reports. Interestingly, included the Internet of things as one of the disruptive technologies that will shape lifestyles, businesses, and the global economy. According to its report, more than 9 billion devices around the world are currently connected to the Internet and that number is expected to increase dramatically in the next decade, with estimates ranging from 50

itself. A in Wired posits that the security challenges that come with the Internet of things will be worse than the ones experienced in the mid-1990s. During that time, software and operating systems were riddled with vulnerabilities, companies tried to keep these vulnerabilities secret, security updates were not released quickly, and, when updates were install. This time around, the computers in routers in the mid-1990s, all sorts of consumer devices will be connected to the Internet, and, more importantly, “the industries producing these devices are even

billion devices to one trillion. The Internet of things will impact businesses not only in the products and way companies manage and monitor all the “moving

and consumer items such as cars and television.

“Security researches are gradually raising warnings that the Internet of Things will increase, by multitudes, the number of things that can December report in Computerworld India says. As cited in the report, news release that it has discovered a Linux worm that “appears to be engineered to target the ‘Internet of

and technology vendors have yet to explore the possibilities of an expanded Internet and are not

range of small, Internet-enabled devices in addition to traditional computers.

observes, in this October press release, that the Internet of

STRATEGY POINTS Some see 2014 as the year of the Internet of things—everyday physical objects becoming capable of sending out data and receiving input over the Internet Challenges that must be addressed will involve security issues, as well as the development of technical infrastructure to accommodate the myriad of devices that are expected to be connected to the Internet Companies would do well to think about their products and services with innovation trends in mind, whether or not they see themselves as being in the business of cutting-edge technology

n the of a three-part series in Quartz in December, says 2014 is the year of the Internet of things—a trend wherein everyday physical objects become capable of Internet connectivity, thus enabling users to control and interact with them remotely, largely through smartphones.

Internet of things is that connecting a device to the Internet has become cheaper and relatively easier. Companies like Qualcomm, Intel, and Texas Instruments, he says, have created inexpensive and

billions of devices. “The demands of streaming video and other bandwidth-hungry applications

to the Internet via Wi-Fi or to a mobile phone using wireless chips, coupled with the prevalence of smartphones, means that “technology companies

A Jan. 7 post by technology journalist in CIO.com points out some of the problems about the Internet of things, such as supplying billions of

And then there’s the issue of security in systems where computing is embedded into the hardware

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Whether or not one is in the business of cuttingedge technology, it will bode well for companies to think about their products and services with these for instance, are already considering the “smartening of their appliances for the coming era of smart

reimagine what can products and services can be created or reconstructed in an era of ubiquitous connectivity and greater democratization of new technology, keeping in mind that no creation comes without its challenges.

February 4, 2014

POINT & CLICK Access online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures, graphics, and words in blue

The coolest gadgets coming our way in 2014 and beyond

rom January 7-10, 2014, the International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) was held

in store for the rest of the year and possibly beyond

the intrusiveness of technology were cited as major issues

for us in 2014 and beyond. Smartwatch As speculation of Apple coming out with an iWatch circulated last

about the wearer’s activity on its interface, according to the company’s site. With the integrated heart-rate sensor, the Wellograph reveals the quality of the wearer’s activities.

mainstream consumers, instead of just the early adopters. While Samsung and Sony came out with their own smartwatches, the technology was far from mature, a in Forbes

workouts, steps, or if he has been sitting for too long is made available.

smartwatches that debuted at this year’s CES, which “represent the best breed or notable improvement in

The friendly OLED touch screen that shows data about the wearer’s physical activity and calories burned, says a t in Engadget. In addition, the

Departing from the plastic case and basic strap of its predecessor, for instance, the

Android and Apple iOS devices to get incoming calls

companies to submit and consumers to download applications for the smartwatch.

Fitness gadgets A watch called the Wellograph is an “activity tracker, a heart rate monitor and a running watch in

annual event gives consumers a glimpse of the future

year, many wondered about the

STRATEGY POINTS

people to simply glance at their watch to know basic information rather than having to pull out

measuring signals from the inner ear. The report says no release date for either item has been revealed.

Unlike other smartwatches that relay information Omate TrueSmart directly connects to the mobile

Japanese electronics giant Sony presented a new wearable

allowing the user to make and receive calls from the device itself. Another smartwatch mentioned in the report is the , which “promises a more elegant connection with one’s smartphone that allows

device called the Sony Smartband. A in Android Authority

says the Smartband actively communicates with other devices through the LifeLong app, which records not only data related to physical activities, but also entertainment information like what songs idea, the report says, is to help the wearer make improvements in his workouts, such as knowing which songs were playing during his best time in a run. The Lumo Lift, meanwhile, is a wearable device that buzzes when the wearer is not sitting up straight, says a Jan. 8 report in Time. The wearer attaches the device on his clothes with a magnet, and the sensors on the device will alert the user if he starts buckling. A gentle buzz will remind him to app also counts the number of steps the user takes and reminds him to exercise more when needed. Smart homes As major companies make gadgets more compatible, smart home appliances could become more common, according to a Jan. 10 article in MIT Technology Review. It further says that “a deluge of Internetready home devices and

Goji Smart lock gives users complete control over access to their home through a mobile phone Goji

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February 4, 2014

launched at CES. devices appear to be easy to use and can be combined into larger systems that gives the user control through his smartphone.

screens that pack in four times the resolution of control over access to the user’s home using a mobile phone, according to the company’s site. It has the ability to send the homeowner real-time picture alerts via text or email of the individuals accessing his

. According to television makers, curved screens can and improving visibility for people sitting to the sides of the TV, the report says.

support in case the owner loses his phone, as shown in a video posted on its site. Samsung Electronics, for its part, announced its

According to a Jan. 7 post TV is built with LCD technology, rather than the

compact zFAS car computer. “In the

the car would drive itself very slowly.

powered system could be used for key automated-driving

In a video discussion moderated by Quartz Delaney among technology journalists,

recognition, departure lane warnings and

of Re/Code, Farhad The Wall Street Journal, and Christopher

says the report. January press release unique functionality enables users to control and manage their home devices through a single application by connecting personal and home devices—from refrigerators and washing machines to Smart TVs, digital cameras, smartphones and

one of the most impressive feats of consumer display

TV, which was launched in December, according to a story in Engadget.

Vizio, a Jan. 9 story suggests. Vizio’s massive 120-inch TV was the biggest a variety of sensors to monitor the user’s sleeping habits, movement, heart rate, and breathing rate, according to a Jan. 7 report in Engadget. The bed has two sections and “each of which are independently adjustable, so that once the bed knows your sleeping patterns, it can suggest ways you might want to Snore feature, which allows one to raise other’s voice commands, and an under-the-bed light acts as a path light for when the user gets up in the middle of the night. Televisions

company will be able to deliver 4k content for just $999 with a 50-inch model. Cars. unveiled their latest driverless car technology and conducted demonstration drives, reports Jan. 9 story it says, added its highly active assist technology uses steering, breaking, and throttle to control acceleration, deceleration, and direction on very small, exact amounts. A video shows the car in action.

with the consumers, perhaps the ultra CES, it’s all about curved televisions

Audi, meanwhile, presented its Sport Quattro Laserlight concept car at CES, but its real advancement this year, the report notes, is the

For cars to be able to park themselves, a company called Valeo has been working to embed cars with sensors, cameras, and a laser scanner, Time reports in a Jan. 7 story. While there is a park-assist feature in newer car models, this technology can allow the user to get out of the vehicle itself a parking lot. Alternatively, the user can pull up an app on his smartphone and tell the car to come and fetch him. In an interview with Valeo engineer Sam Azuz mentioned in the report, the technology could work in a

the video shows the BMW 2 Series Coupe in action BMW

Data security and the intrusiveness of technology were cited as major technology issues in the near future Quartz

mill parking lot, but

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February 4, 2014

revealed that the trends for this year include more self-aware and connected cars, smart homes, and wearables that are able to quantify a person’s data, with the smartphone acting as the controller for all these gadgets. As was also pointed out, the challenge given all these new devices is their ability to communicate with one another. For now, there is little incentive for companies to develop products that will work well with other devices, as in the case of Apple and Android platforms. In the end, data security and the intrusiveness of technology were cited as major issues in the world of technology in 2014.

PHABLETS ARE HERE TO STAY AS SHIPMENTS SKYROCKET

The

smartphone-tablet hybrid known as the phablet is here to stay.

As cited in a TechCrunch dispatch, a Juniper Research report says there were 20 million phablet shipments will increase to 120 million units in 2018.

the trend, the TechCrunch report says, with the

August press release,

smartphones has risen steadily, growing 17 times year-on-year. “The key for growth in this market, as with most emerging markets, is a low-priced phone equipped with a large screen and dual market analyst.

Android operating system seems to be

iteration, sold 5 million units in one week.

STRATEGY POINTS Phablet shipments are expected to rise to 120 million units by 2018, up from 20 million units shipped in 2013, Juniper Research says Increased preference for large screen devices is seen in emerging markets

Other companies have since followed suit and released their own phablets. According to a Jan. 21 feature , phones have become devices designed to give users the ultimate experience in entertainment and productivity. The feature

Phablets are eating into the tablet market, according to market analysis An from global research and analysis provider Strategy Analytics reveals consumers surveyed in the second half of 2012 were increasingly attracted to larger screens, ranging from 4.2 to 4.7 inches, with the most preferred size being 4.5 inches. POINT & CLICK Access online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures, graphics, and words in blue

smartphone shipments in the second quarter International Data Corporation (IDC), a global research and analysis

time in its short history, in a release “Almost all successful Android vendors have added one or more 5-7-inch phablets to their

smartphone market. “We believe the absence of a large-screen device may have contributed to Apple’s inability to grow share in the third

Windows platform, made strides in the past third quarter, mostly because both platforms have a selection of devices that are priced Research manager Ramon Llamas points out that it is the mass market driving the entire market forward. an article from u.K.-based gadget website Pocket-lint gives a rundown of the best phablets to buy in 2014

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February 4, 2014

you gotta see this

Phablets overtake tablet and portable PC shipments

The news aggregation site ViralNova provides us with an assortment of photo essays from around the Internet, covering things the site owner regards as “must see.” This time out, posts – built around photo presentations from the Imgur image archive site – that we think make the grade. Just think of them as the travel might actually want to see.

A Jan. 6 post Hua Shan, just outside the city

, capital

photos show, the steep “Heavenly Stairs” at the base of the mountain is only the beginning

ViralNova, Imgur Phablets are also eating into other markets, such as portable PCs and tablets IDC

a steep set of stairs carved out of Mt. Hua Shan marks the start of a trek that gets more thrilling as you progress.

acrophobic, you might still get queasy just from looking at some of these photos.

To boost its lagging share in China, the world’s biggest mobile market, Apple will be selling the August press release from IDC. It says device vendors shipped 25.2 million phablets in the second quarter

The second presentation is the story of an unusual symbol that

. The symbol turns out to be a memorial for the says the phablet trend was initially driven by mature consumers prefer to have one large-screen device for checking e-mails, browsing the Web, and watching videos. In the report, Forrester Research’s principal

French airline UTA (Union des Transports Aeriens) following the explosion of a suitcase bomb that had

and India are contributing to the device’s popularity, as well, particularly with low-cost local players. The presentation features pictures taken over

platform sold this year through Chinese carriers will have screens measuring at least 5 inches.

due to the cannibalization of phablets. In emerging markets where many consumers do not have the budget to buy both a phone and a tablet, the phablet

shipments of the device overtook those of portable

fashion the memorial based on wreckage from the ViralNova, Imgur the memorial, and the starboard wing of the plane, on which is mounted the roster of the crew and

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The memorial for the victims of UTA Flight 772, as

February 4, 2014

SOCIETY

When One Percent Owns Half The World According to a humanitarian

of 10 people live in countries where economic inequality has increased since 1980 If left unaddressed, this trend toward extreme income inequality could lead to “opportunity capture,” heightened social tensions, and increased risk of societal breakdown

POINT & CLICK Access online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures, graphics, and words in blue

tHE SuPEr-rICH GEt EVEN rICHEr

the planet’s rich and powerful prepared to gather in Davos, Switzerland, for the 2014 World Economic Forum last week, a global humanitarian organization sounded the general alarm about a centuries-old concern for them to urgently address: haves and have-nots. Working

the percentage increase in share of income of the richest one percent

Supporting that thesis, Oxfam’s own survey in six

inequality wealth concentration in the hands of a few and its impact on the world, including:

India, South Africa, the United States – indicated a majority agreeing with the view that “laws and regulations are now

now own almost half of global wealth

of the bottom half of the world’s population that bottom half economic inequality has increased since 1980 increased their share of national income in 24

Oxfam warned that this extreme wealth concentration threatens to exclude millions from receiving the bounties of their hard work. Left unchecked, the report added, this trend

the lowest tax rates, the best educational opportunities, and the best health care, perpetuating a cycle of economic inequality. The Oxfam paper called the massive concentration of economic resources

It explained: “Instead of moving forward together, people are increasingly separated by economic and political power, inevitably heightening social tensions and increasing the risk

Oxfam’s suggestions for the 2014 World Economic Forum included a pledge among its well-heeled participants to not dodge taxes and to disclose investments in companies and trusts in which they owners, among other things. It also proposed national policies to strengthen the political representation of the poor and middle classes in order to achieve greater equity. That includes a global goal to end extreme economic inequality in each country, as well as stronger regulation of markets to promote sustainable and equitable growth.

the share of national income going to the richest one percent

Source: “Working for the Few – Political capture and income inequality,”

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February 4, 2014

For another look at global income inequality, the special report series on “ income inequality and its cost message down to earth for Americans by comparing income inequality in their country with the situation in other nations.

The interactive feature matches income-distribution

The series also includes dispatches from

Of course, the real task is to go from knowing about inequality to doing something about it. And in case the

counterpart cities elsewhere in the world, like dimensions – education, race, immigration, health care, government, labor and natural resources. Its U.S.-oriented perspective notwithstanding, the report’s scope and breadth make for recommended reading.

respectively). Video essays accompany the data.

addressing inequalities adds a threat against the rich: social disparities fuel unrest and violence.

HOW INEQUITY HURTS GROWTH concludes: “There is considerable MoDErN

ClaSSICal

High initial inequality of income

High aggregate saving (The rich has a higher marginal propensity to save than the poor.)

Greater income equity

High economic growth

High initial inequality of income

policy communities that not only providing social services, but also and crucially ensuring fair access to them among

High saving

prevention, violence reduction

Early stage economic

High rent seeking activities

Social tension and political instability

Poor median voter

Greater income share to middle class

Physical capital accumulation is a prime engine for growth

property rights

A further reason for the rich to share and uplift comes from a 2002 paper from Eric Thorbecke and Chutatong Charumilind, then

High physical capital accumulation

Great demand for redistribution

Higher economic growth

Increased uncertainty Higher taxation

High capital accumulation

uNIfIED

Strong negative effect on fertility

in the World Development journal, “Economic Inequality and Its Socioeconomic Impact argues that wealth disparities drag down growth, with economic models on page 1481 summing up the theories backing the thesis. So listen up, Davos: If you want continued global expansion, not to mention peace and harmony, share the wealth.

accumulation becomes a prime engine for growth due to capitalskill complementarity

investment Greater distortion

accumulation (Under investment in human capital market imperfections)

Positive effect on growth

econmic growth

Graphic from “Economic Inequality and Its Socioeconomic Impact,” World Development,

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