The Caravel | Volume X, Issue I

V O LU M E 10 | I S S U E 1

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Russian Cabinet Resigns Amid Proposed Changes Dennis Azvolinsky

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Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and all other cabinet members resigned on January 15, according to DW. The resignations occurred after President Vladimir Putin announced planned constitutional reforms, presumably aimed to maintain power after his term ends in 2024.

This change is unprecedented, but Putin’s efforts to stay in power are not new. “It’s not a power grab,” Alina Polyakova, president of the Center for European Policy Analysis told Vox, “it’s a plan to ensure that Putin de facto remains in power for life.”

Putin’s proposed changes will weaken the power of the future Russian president, reports CNN. The sole power to choose the prime minister and other cabinet officials will shift

Remnants of rival military factions fight in Sirte, Libya, in 2011.

Haftar Challenges Libyan Ceasefire World leaders failed to make meaningful progress toward a permanent ceasefire in Libya during an international summit in Berlin on January 19, according to the Middle East Eye. Khalifa Haftar, leader of the Libyan National Army (LNA), continued to challenge the UN-backed government in Tripoli both militarily and economically. Much like the summit, which included many world leaders, the Libyan conflict has drawn extensive international participation over time.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the German foreign ministry hosted heads of state from 12 countries and leaders of four multinational

organizations, including the UN. All summit attendees have played key roles in the conflict in Libya thus far, the Guardian reported. The goal of the summit was to secure a pledge from external actors to end their involvement in Libya and attain a truce between the two competing national governments, Haftar’s LNA and the UN-backed administration headed

by Fayez al-Sarraj. Several politicians appear optimistic following the summit. “A special committee made up of five military men from each side will monitor the truce. Foreign powers active in Libya have committed themselves to uphold an existing UN arms embargo and to stop shipping weapons there,” Merkel said.

The summit surprised some

politicians, as previous ceasefire negotiations between Sarraj and Haftar and brokered by Turkey and Russia had failed, according to Al Jazeera.

After a recent meeting in Istanbul, on January 15, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for an end to the fighting in Libya.

Despite this pressure, Haftar rejected a ceasefire on January 16 and stated that the LNA’s military operations would continue. “We welcome Putin’s call for a ceasefire. However, our fight against terrorist organizations that seized Tripoli and received support of some countries will continue until the end,” Haftar’s spokesman, Ahmad alMesmari, said in a statement.

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2-3

W. EUROPE & CANADA, 6-7

Trump Confirms Travel Ban Expansion, p. 2

Greek Islanders Protest Migrant Camps, p. 6

LAT. AM. & THE CARIBBEAN, 8-9 State of Emergency Over Oil Spill, p. 9

E. EUROPE & RUSSIA, 4-5 Azerbaijani Parliament Dissolves Itself, p. 4

Irish PM Calls for General Elections, p. 7

Marianna Aslund

See CEASEFIRE IN LIBYA on p. 14

INDO-ASIA-PACIFIC, 10-11 Coronavirus Outbreak Triggers Wuhan Quarantine, p. 10

from the president to Parliament. The reforms will also extend the powers of the State Council, which contains regional governors and various state officials, as well as local governments.

Though the presidency would keep some of its current powers, such as appointing most leadership in the armed forces and law enforcement, the authority of the president will greatly diminish if Putin’s proposals come to fruition, according to CNN. This system of increased checks and balances may seem beneficial to restoring the faltering democracy of Russia, but the powers lost by the future president of Russia will move to other places in the Russian government, according to the Moscow Times. Putin may seek to dominate these sectors in the future.

See RUSSIAN CABINET RESIGNS on p. 4

Spain Declares Climate Emergency Matthew Lee Spain’s new coalition government, led by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, declared a national climate emergency on January 21, according to the Associated Press. Spain now joins more than 20 countries that have already enacted similar states of emergency, according to the Hill.

Spain’s cabinet approved the declaration of climate emergency, which the Spanish parliament will receive within 100 days. The country’s current cabinet is built on a coalition with a Socialist alignment, reported the Associated Press.

Voice of America suggests that the bill declaring climate change a national emergency is part of Sanchez’s aggressive plan to address

climate change. The bill aims to meet the European Union’s goal of reducing net carbon emissions to zero by 2050, according to the Associated Press.

Spanish Environment Minister Teresa Ribera was inspired by the French initiative creating a public advisory board to “generate ideas about responding to climate change in an inclusive, consultative way with a special focus on the youth,” according to Voice of America.

Spain’s declaration requires up to 95 percent of the country’s electrical usage to be sourced from renewable sources by 2040, the Associated Press reports. Moreover, it seeks to eliminate pollution caused by buses and trucks.

See SPAIN ANNOUNCES CLIMATE PLAN on p. 6

MIDDLE EAST & C. ASIA, 12-13

AFRICA, 14-15

Israel Builds ‘Nature Reserves’ in West Bank, p. 12

Locusts Threaten East African Food Security, p. 14

Yemen Missile Attack Kills More Than 100, p. 13

Ethiopian Parliament Passes New Gun Laws, p. 15

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UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Virginia Ratifies Equal Trump Confirms Travel Ban Expansion Rights Amendment Caleb Yip

The Virginia Senate and House voted to approve the Equal Rights Amendment (ERA) on January 15, making it the pivotal 38th state required to ratify the amendment. First approved by Congress in 1972, the amendment states that the “equality of Rights under the law shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or any state on account of sex.”

However, legal questions surrounding the amendment means it is uncertain if the amendment will indeed be added to the Constitution.

Initially, Congress set a ratification deadline of 1979, which was later extended to 1982, according to NPR; however, by 1982, only 35 states had ratified the amendment, three short of the 38-state threshold required by the Constitution. In recent years, the ERA received renewed attention when Nevada and Illinois ratified it in 2017 and 2018, respectively.

When Virginia’s House of Delegates flipped control from Republican

to Democrat in the 2019 election, thanks to a record wave of women being elected, it raised hopes that the amendment might finally be ratified.

On the day of the pivotal vote, women’s rights supporters crowded the House gallery as three Republicans, along with every Democrat in the House, approved the amendment by 59-41.

On the day of the pivotal vote, women’s rights supporters crowded the House.

Although supporters are hailing this as a consequential moment, many obstacles remain before the ERA can be formally adopted as the 28th Amendment to the Constitution.

The original deadline imposed by Congress has long passed, and five state legislatures have since rescinded their ratification of the amendment.

Supporters of the ERA argue that the

Constitution does not provide for the rescission of an amendment, and they are therefore invalid.

Thus far, no federal court has ruled conclusively on the question of rescinding an amendment ratification, but the U.S. Department of Justice’s Office of Legal Counsel released a memo on January 8 concluding that Congress had proper authority in imposing a deadline on ratification, and that “the Equal Rights Amendment has failed of adoption and is no longer pending before the States.”

The ruling was issued in response to a lawsuit filed by three states to prevent the U.S. archivist, who is responsible for certifying the ERA’s ratification, from registering the amendment. At the same time, proERA groups are asking another federal court to invalidate the deadline imposed by Congress and allow for the amendment’s ratification. The matter is now largely a legal question and rulings by different federal courts could see the legal battle played out at the Supreme Court.

Sam Harvard

President Donald Trump confirmed reports that his administration is planning to expand its travel ban in an interview with the Wall Street Journal at the World Economic Forum on January 21. However, he didn’t disclose which new countries would be added to the policy.

“We’re adding a couple of countries,” Trump said. “We have to be safe. Our country has to be safe. You see what’s going on in the world. Our country has to be safe.”

The announcement comes three years after the administration released the original travel ban, which temporarily restricted the admission of citizens from Syria, Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Libya, Somalia, and Yemen.

The executive order incited criticism about targeting Muslim-majority countries and immigrants based on national origin. However, courtissued injunctions hampered the implementation of the original order.

Trump later released more

executive orders revising the original, adding Venezuela and North Korea to the list of restricted countries. The Supreme Court upheld the ban in a 5-4 decision in 2018.

While the new countries for the travel ban have not been officially announced, Politico reports that Belarus, Myanmar, Eritrea, Kyrgyzstan, Nigeria, Sudan, and Tanzania are all under consideration.

Unlike currently restricted nations, some of these countries have stable diplomatic relations with the United States. For example, Nigeria is a U.S. counterterrorism ally and there is a large Nigerian immigrant community in the US. The Trump administration is set to announce an official list of new countries for the travel ban sometime next week. The expansion will likely reignite legal debates concerning the president’s power to regulate immigration as well as spur questions concerning the criteria for determining whether a country’s immigration should be restricted.

Treasury Offers New Bond Felipe Lobo Koerich Madison Stern Advait Arun Paulina Song

ADMINISTRATIVE BOARD Publisher Editor-in-Chief Director of Digital Operations Executive Director

Christopher Stein Suzannah Mazur Paulina Song Kate Fin Max Dunat Sarah Weber Cristina Lopez Arin Chinnasathian Juliana Albuquerque Shaily Acharya Zoey Brown Madeline Hart Samuel Hoag Ayushman Ghosh Brooke Tanner Martin Hiti

EDITORIAL STAFF Copy Chief Copy Chief Africa Editor Africa Editor Eastern Europe & Russia Editor Eastern Europe & Russia Editor Indo-Asia-Pacific Editor Indo-Asia-Pacific Editor Latin America & the Caribbean Editor Latin America & the Caribbean Editor Middle East & Central Asia Editor Middle East & Central Asia Editor United States of America Editor United States of America Editor Western Europe & Canada Editor Western Europe & Canada Editor

The Treasury announced on January 16 that it will reintroduce the 20-year bond into the market for the first half of 2020 to account for budget deficits, which have recently surpassed $1 trillion for the first time since 2012.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had been considering potential products to introduce into the market since 2017 as part of President Donald Trump’s efforts to “refinance” U.S. debt. In late 2017, Trump issued corporate tax cuts and tax reform, decreasing government revenues. In addition, the budget deficit ballooned to over $1 trillion in 2019. In the next year, the government must pay back some of this debt. While the U.S. has enough to finance itself through 2020, introducing this 20-year bond will allow it to meet future deficit needs.

Mnuchin stated that the goal is to finance the government at the least cost to taxpayers.

This is the first time the 20-year bond has been introduced since 1986.

While the Treasury had considered other options such as 50-year bonds, 100-year bonds, and floating-rate notes linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, it ultimately decided to issue the 20-year bond. The Treasury settled on the 20-year bond because it believes that there will be strong demand from investors, which would fulfill its goal of “financ[ing] the government at the least possible cost to taxpayers over time,” according to

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Srishti Khemka

Mnuchin.

As a result of introducing the 20-year bond, the demand for other existing bonds—like shorter two-year bonds and longer ten-year and 30-year bonds—may decrease. The U.S. may even issue fewer ten-year and 30-year bonds as a result of the new 20-year bond offering.

Michael Schumacher, a rates strategist at Wells Fargo, says the bonds are popular. “We’re fans of this.”

The U.S. Treasury Building in Washington, D.C.

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Microsoft Pledges to Fight Climate Change Microsoft pledged to abide by a host of new environmental guidelines in an effort to fight against the catastrophic effects of global warming on January 16. The move makes the corporation a frontrunner in the fight against climate change.

In an official blog post, Microsoft President Brad Smith rolled out the technology corporation’s vision to be “carbon negative by 2030,” while ensuring that by 2050, “Microsoft will remove from the environment all the

carbon the company has emitted either directly or by electrical consumption” since beginning operations in 1975.

The detailed plan includes shifting to “100 percent supply of renewable energy” by 2025, making all campus operations vehicles electric by 2030, and creating a $1 billion climate innovation fund over four years to accelerate the development of carbon removal technology, according to Microsoft.

Additionally, the approach entails expanding their internal carbon fee, which has been in place since 2012,

Microsoft has laid out a detailed plan to go carbon negative by 2030.

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Chris Jang

to charge emissions produced by the company’s supply and value chains.

Although Microsoft has worked to be carbon neutral since 2012 by investing in emissions offsets, Smith claims that “neutral is not enough to address the world’s needs,” advocating instead for the removal of carbon from the atmosphere. The corporation is branding itself as “taking responsibility for our carbon footprint.”

More than 300 companies have agreed to plant one trillion trees by the end of the decade.

Senators Chris Coons (D-DE), and Mike Braun (R-IN) praised Microsoft for its proposal, calling it the “kind of bold action we need from the business community,” according to Reuters.

This change from Microsoft comes amid a growing movement in the business world to rein in the damage of climate change.

Earlier this year, Laurence Fink, the CEO of Blackrock, an investment

management company, posted an annual letter to CEOs across the world to address the role of environmental sustainability in investment banking.

The letter stated that it is imperative for every government, company, and shareholder to “confront climate change.”

At Davos this week, Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff announced that more than 300 companies have agreed to plant one trillion trees by the end of the decade. Even Royal Dutch Shell, which has released nearly 32 billion tons of carbon dioxide since 1965, has recently pivoted to embrace a sustainable model of business. The company wrote a New York Times article about its vision for a net zero emissions world by 2070.

Regardless of whether these changes by global corporations stem from apparent shifts in public perception — as evidenced by a CBS News poll reporting that 64 percent of the U.S. population consider climate change a crisis or serious problem —measurable, aggressive, and timebased plans like Microsoft’s stand as evidence of environmental changes that corporations are taking.

Thousands Protest for Gun Rights in Virginia Theodore Fairfield More than 22,000 pro-gun demonstrators gathered in front of the Virginia State Capitol Building in Richmond to protest recently proposed firearms restrictions on January 20, according to Reuters.

Due to security concerns posed by neo-Nazis and other extremist groups, Governor Ralph Northam banned all firearms on capitol grounds. Federal authorities arrested three alleged neoNazis intending to use the protest to trigger racial tensions. Capitol Police also reported the arrest of a 21-yearold woman who refused to take off a face-cover after repeatedly being told that masks were prohibited.

Despite the firearms ban on capitol grounds, around 16,000 protesters remained outside the area, and some were armed with military-style weapons and wearing camouflage clothing and gear.

Many demonstrators held U.S. flags, along with signs saying “Come and Take It” next to images of firearms, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Some shouted, “We will not comply,” and “U.S.A.” into bullhorns. According

to Reuters, many praised President Donald Trump and his commitment to upholding Second Amendment rights.

Phillip Van Cleave, president of the Virginia Citizens Defense League, which organized the protest, discussed the far-right presence with the Wall Street Journal: “It was a perfect day,” he said in reference to the protests, “I didn’t expect any from our side, but we didn’t know about all these groups that said they were going to piggyback onto our rally.”

“We are all thankful that today passed without incident.” ­—Governor Northam Many people traveled from outside the state to protest against the gun control plans. Teri Horne, who came from Texas with her Smith & Wesson rifle and .40-caliber handgun, expressed her concerns with Virginia’s gun control policies to Reuters: “What’s going on here, if not stopped,

will spread to other states. They will come for guns in other states if we don’t stop them in Virginia.”

A few counter-protesters walked around Richmond carrying banners, protesting white supremacy and calling for the removal of Trump and Vice President Mike Pence.

Police thwarted any possibly violent interaction between the two groups.

Northam expressed his relief that the event remained peaceful on Twitter, writing, “we are all thankful that today passed without incident.”

Northam has vowed to pass new gun control laws in his state, and he is currently supporting a package of eight bills, including universal background checks, red flag laws, and an assault rifle ban.

He has faced backlash for his efforts in the past. Following a shooting at Virginia Beach last year, he called an emergency legislative session. It ended without a vote.

Trump commented on the situation in Richmond. “The Democrat Party in the Great Commonwealth of Virginia is working hard to take away your 2nd Amendment rights,” President Trump tweeted following the protest. “This is

just the beginning. Don’t let it happen.

VOTE REPUBLICAN in 2020.”

The rally was held on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which usually is reserved as Lobby Day where local citizens can lobby their legislators. According to the Associated Press, many groups stayed away from the Capitol due to the threat of violence.

As a result of the increased threat, fifteen college students and one high school student from the March for Our Lives Organization slept overnight in front of the offices of Democratic legislators to ensure that they could reach the Capitol area safely.

According to Reuters, many of the state’s gun owners have discussed the possibility of creating “sanctuary cities” for gun rights, with local government bodies in almost all ninety-five counties passing declarations not to enforce new gun control laws. Across the U.S., over two-hundred local governments and sixteen states have passed similar proposals.

Sheriff Richard Vaughn of Grayson County, a sanctuary county, told Reuters, “Some of these bills being proposed are just unconstitutional and we will not enforce them.”

EDITOR’S COLUMN: Ayushman Ghosh

M

embers of Congress attended the fifth annual World Holocaust Forum in Jerusalem on January 23. This event marked the 75th anniversary of the liberation of the Auschwitz concentration camp, according to the Hill. Vice President Mike Pence and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) both attended the event, and Pence was one of five leaders to address the forum. The conference discussed, among other things, the rise of anti-Semitism in Europe.

The conference had a Eurocentric emphasis, but the concerns presented can also be applied to the United States.

According to the Anti Defamation League, 1,879 antiSemetic incidents were recorded in the U.S. in 2018, including more than 1,000 incidences of harassment. In 2017, anti-Semetic incidents experienced a record single year rise of 57 percent.

They report that about one in four Europeans “harbor pernicious and pervasive attitudes toward Jews” as of November 2019.

Infamous incidents in recent years include the synagogue shootings in Pittsburgh and San Diego, a shooting in Jersey City, and a knife attack in New York City, according to the Wall Street Journal. The rise is particularly evident in New York City, where anti-Semetic crimes rose by 21 percent in 2019, according to the Washington Post.

These events paint a stark picture of modern society, both in action and public reaction.

The rise in anti-Semitism in the U.S. is not only a part of the broader trend of actions against Jewish populations around the world, but it is also a part of the increase in incidents against minority populations in the U.S. A third of France’s population believes that a new Holocaust could happen in the U.S., according to the Conference on Jewish Material Claims Against Germany. Although this is unlikely to happen due the expansion of media and surveillance since the Holocaust, the rise in anti-Semitism in the U.S. should be prevented from developing any further. The fast rise of anti-Semitism in the U.S. incidents is definitely concerning for many, especially for a country that European Jews saw as a safe haven from persecution in Europe 75 years ago.

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EASTERN EUROPE & RUSSIA Sarah Weber

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lections, internal power shifts, and protests promise intense political discourse over the next few months as eastern Europe faces its corruption and efforts to reduce it through reforms and freer opposition.

Russia, which has long been subject to President Vladimir Putin’s tightening grip on power, experienced massive political upheaval after the resignation of the entire Russian cabinet on January 15, according to CNN. The resignations of the cabinet come in the wake of Putin’s widespread political reforms that propose transferring presidential power to other sectors of the government, according to Market Watch.

In Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko, whose reign has lasted since the fall of the U.S.S.R., faces an election on August 30 in which his victory is almost certain, according to Global Security. Moreover, the Azerbaijani parliament scheduled mass snap elections for February 9 in the wake of their self-dissolution in December 2019, Euractiv reports. The upcoming elections will likely strengthen President Ilham Aliyev’s hand as he continues to centralize power.

Despite current dominance, tides are shifting for authoritarian leaders. Poll numbers consistently place approval ratings for all three leaders at absurdly high percentages, but recent public protests have shaken each of their nations.

According to the Guardian, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), and Human Rights Watch, Russia’s ongoing protests against political crackdown have drawn thousands, while both Belarusian and Azerbaijani activists have been met with violence at their protests—an indication of the threat that grassroots activism poses to longstanding regimes. As populism tightens its grip across the West, eastern Europe’s increasingly vocal opposition may prove a touchstone for the democratic process through organized protest and the potential of gradual change from below.

Azerbaijani Parliament Dissolves Itself Sarah Weber

The parliament of Azerbaijan voted to dissolve itself on December 2, setting the stage for snap elections to elect a new government, according to Al Jazeera. The dissolution passed by a measure of 99 votes to one, with one abstention. The vote comes amid political turmoil after the unexplained resignation of former Prime Minister Novruz Mammadov in October. The formal declaration claimed that the legislative body does not currently meet national policy, reports Armedia.

The former members of parliament called upon President Ilham Aliyev to hold new elections for parliamentary seats within 60 days, which is the legal limit on a period during which the legislature does not meet.

The vote came on the same day as Aliyev’s announcement that he would restructure his presidential cabinet to better suit the needs of the country, according to Eurasianet. The new structure is intended to accelerate reform, which Aliyev has supported in the form of wage increases, tax system improvements, and the release of political prisoners.

The dissolution of Azerbaijan’s

parliament comes amid turmoil within the government as Aliyev attempts to keep his footing in a nation ripe for major reform. Eurasianet reports that the coming elections are likely to usher in a generation of young, technologyadept candidates. Aliyev hopes that these candidates will support his efforts to counter the dissatisfaction that has emerged under his time in office, which has been marked by economic stagnancy unparalleled in the region.

Aliyev’s support of the snap elections is also part of his attempt to appeal to democracy, even though Freedom House has counted his almost two-decade rule as an authoritarian regime. The publication, which ranks nations based on their implementation of democratic principles, has criticized Azerbaijan’s intense intolerance of dissent. Rising tensions within the country culminated in the violent dispersal of peaceful protests by police in October 2019, according to Human Rights Watch.

While the parliament's dissolution may pave the way for greater representation of opposition parties, several opposition figures have expressed fatigue at their inability to

Russian Cabinet Resigns From p. 1 Although some suspect that the government resigned in protest to these major changes, Medvedev expressed that he and his cabinet resigned in order to “provide the president of our country with the opportunity to make all the decisions necessary for this,” reports CNN. Putin thanked Medvedev and other outgoing cabinet members for their work in the government over the years; for Medvedev, this consisted of eight years of service after his single term as president from 2008 to 2012, when Putin served as his prime minister.

Currently, Medvedev serves as the Vice Chairman of the Russian Security Council, a position seen by many as a major demotion.

To replace Medvedev as prime minister, Putin nominated Mikhail Mishustin, a Russian economist and the former head of the Federal Taxation Service, according to CNN. The Russian Parliament confirmed Mishustin, a largely unknown and

previously insignificant government official with almost no global renown, with 383 votes in favor, 41 abstentions—all of which came from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation—and no votes against, according to Meduza.

Despite the prevailing notion that he is a man of great promise and buoyancy, "it seems highly likely that Mishustin is just a technocratic placeholder," Carnegie Moscow Center’s Tatyana Stanovaya wrote for Reuters. "Putin's logic in cases like this has always been to wait until a few months before elections before revealing the name of his successor."

Mishustin's promotion may prove to be a temporary one as Putin constructs a new cabinet that will maximize his concentration of power.

While these mass resignations in the Russian government are certain to change its state, one thing remains constant: where power shifts, Putin follows and his plans for Russia once he leaves the presidency are unclear.

gain a foothold in the government, according to OC Media. Some parties announced their intent to gain seats in parliament and form a coalition with independent candidates. However, the opposition coalition, which operates under the conglomerate National Council of Democratic Forces, has announced its intent to boycott the election in protest of Aliyev’s corruption, as they believe the election will instate a new set of presidential cronies in the absence of democratic integrity and measures against corruption.

Moreover, Aliyev’s decision to

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EDITOR’S COLUMN:

name his wife, Mehriban Aliyeva, as the country’s first vice president indicates that he intends to perpetuate the dynastic presidency that he inherited from his father in 2003, according to Bloomberg News. Ali Karimli, an opposition leader whose participation in protests has resulted in extensive jail time, speculated that the election may well prove to be Aliyev’s final consolidation of power in the hands of his family before passing the presidency onto Aliyeva within the next year.

The elections are set to occur on February 9, OC Media reports.

The parliament of Azerbaijan recommended its own dissolution in December.

J A N . 2020 | 5

Erdogan, Putin Edge Toward Alliance Belarus Seeks Following numerous delays, Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar left Russia without signing a cease-fire deal to end the ongoing nine months of fighting in the country, though Russia’s foreign ministry claims progress toward an agreement is still in the works, Deutsche Welle reports.

“We will pursue our efforts in this direction. For now, a definitive result has not been achieved,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said of the agreement, which outlined a tentative plan for permanent peace following a new and “fragile” ceasefire, according to Deutsche Welle.

The negotiations, mediated by diplomats from Turkey and Russia lasted hours, but the warring sides did not meet face to face. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed Haftar had “run away” from talks, and he threatened action from Ankara against Haftar’s forces should Haftar sustain fighting. Turkey has already sent troops to Libya to fight against Haftar on behalf of the UNbacked government, according to Deutsche Welle.

“We will not hesitate to teach a

deserved lesson to the putschist Haftar if he continues his attacks on the country’s legitimate administration and our brothers in Libya,” Erdogan said.

Russia and Turkey have emerged as unlikely allies in North Africa and the Middle East. Though their relations were initially marked by tension, they have since cultivated a relationship that tends to involve both powers gaining a foothold in countries undergoing political turmoil, reports Al Jazeera.

Russia and Turkey have emerged as allies in North Africa and the Middle East.

Independent experts speculate that “[Libya] could… be Russia’s new Syria,” referring to Russia’s entrance into the Syrian power vacuum as the nation negotiates peace talks.

During a recent visit to Egypt, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia’s “task is to help the Libyan people overcome their current differences of opinion, and come up

with a stable agreement,” according to Deutsche Welle.

While their tentative tacit alliance emerged in Syria, it appears that both Russia and Turkey intend to perpetuate their intervention in Libya as well. According to Al Jazeera, although the two countries constitute opposing sides in the conflict, their attempt to broker a ceasefire through their mutual relationship indicates their possible course toward working together in order to exploit Libya’s resources, particularly the oil fields.

While Russia has avoided taking a clear side in the conflict between Haftar and the UN-backed Libyan government in Tripoli, Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer said that “it’s obvious that Moscow is supporting Haftar” behind the scenes, reports Deutsche Welle. This would align Russia's political interests with those of Turkey, similar to their agreement in Syria in October 2019, when each country agreed to cease advancement, according to The New York Times. Such a move allowed both Erdogan and Putin to gain a foothold.

Turkish, Russian, and Libyan leaders will meet in Berlin later this month to finalize an agreement.

Bisexual Woman Alleges Torture Max Dunat A 22-year-old bisexual woman from Russia’s Republic of Chechnya filed a lawsuit alleging she was detained and tortured in psychiatric clinics for five months in 2018, according to the Russian LGBT Network.

Aminat Lorsanova asked Russia’s Investigative Committee to criminally charge her parents, her father’s acquaintance, and the staff of Grozny’s Clinic for Conterminal Psychiatric Conditions. The Network explains that Lorsanova alleges she spent 25 days at the Clinic and four months at the Republican Psycho-Neurological Dispensary against her will.

Lorsanova reports that her father’s friend would beat her while reading verses from the Quran in an attempt to perform an exorcism, according to the Moscow Times. Her parents were present at these beatings, but did not intervene despite her pleas for help.

This would not be the last time Lorsanova would be subjected to domestic violence for her sexuality.

The Moscow Times further reports that following her five-month imprisonment, her father would

forcefully inject her with antipsychotic medication to convert her to heterosexuality. She told the Network, “He put handcuffs and tied my legs with adhesive tape, my mouth was also taped… After the injection of aminazin I was supposed to sleep that way. He even didn’t unleash my legs and hands.”

This entrenched culture of homophobia makes life for gay Chechens dangerous.

Despite being picked up by major news outlets such as Vice and the Moscow Times, the Russian internet has been silent on the issue. Top posts about the story on Russia’s largest social media site Vkontakte rarely received more than 1,000 hits. The stories shared on the platform were overwhelmingly positive, reflecting Russia’s record-high support for LGBT rights as reported by the Moscow Times. However, the more likely reason for the lack of reaction to Lorsanova's

experience is that Russians largely remain apathetic to the plight of LGBT people in the country.

Chechnya’s deputy interior minister told ABC in October 2019 that “He [a gay Chechen] is not afraid of me.

He is afraid of his own family.” This entrenched culture of homophobia makes life for gay Chechens dangerous.

This tragedy is yet another example of Chechnya’s extensive history of persecuting its sexual minorities.

In April 2017, Russian opposition paper Novaya Gazeta broke news of extrajudicial kidnappings and torture, as well as the murders of at least three suspected gay men. The Caravel covered a second round of purges in February 2019 in which up to 20 people may have been killed.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has denied the existence of gay people in Chechnya, a claim Russia has endorsed, according to the Moscow Times.

With the Network’s help, Lorsanova was lucky enough to escape Chechnya and flee Russia in April 2019. However, for many LGBT people still in Chechnya, threats and violence remain a daily reality.

Options After Russia Halts Oil Supply Sienna Siu Belarus began importing crude oil from Norway on January 21 due to a supply row with Russia, its main oil provider, according to AP. According to AP and Reuters, Belneftekhim, the Belarusian state-run oil company, purchased 80,000 tons of oil from Norway’s Johan Sverdrup field. After oil from Norway arrives at the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda, trains will deliver the oil to refineries across Belarus within the next few days.

Russia suspended oil supplies to Belarus on January 1 after the two failed to agree on a price for Russian oil, as well as on the extent to which their economic ties should be strengthened, according to Reuters. Talks stalled over concerns of increasing Russian influence over Belarus, as the Kremlin sees Belarus as a buffer zone between Moscow and the West, Reuters reports.

Belneftekhim has stated that no Russian oil will be supplied until contracts for 2020 are drawn up, according to AP. The two main refineries in Belarus have been operating at low capacity, leading the country to rely on reserves.

While it is more expensive to import oil from sources other than Russia, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko views this as an important message to Moscow regarding the financial and political independence of Belarus. Minsk-based political analyst Valery Karbalevich said, “Lukashenko is sending a clear signal to the Kremlin that he is ready to tighten his belt, but isn’t ready to become a Russian governor,” AP reports.

According to AP, Lukashenko acknowledged in a government

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Anna Ferrazzi

meeting on January 21 that Belarus must diversify its oil imports, aiming to import no more than 40 percent of its oil from Russia. Lukashenko furthered that 30 percent should come from the Baltics and 30 percent from Ukraine.

Currently, more than 80 percent of Belarus’ overall energy needs depend on Russia, and more than 90 percent of its crude oil is supplied by Russia, as Russia has offered Belarus discounted prices and loans for more than two decades, AP reports. Meanwhile, Russia relies on Belarus to transport oil to the rest of Europe—around 10 percent of Western Europe’s oil supplies come from Russia via a pipeline that passes through Belarus.

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) reports that Belarus has been negotiating with several countries regarding oil imports. “All commercial departments of our plants, of the Belarusian Oil Company, have been holding talks practically on a daily basis. I think we will get alternative sources for oil supplies soon. It is about all possibilities—Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic states, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, wherever. We are working on it now,” Belarus's Deputy Prime Minister said.

Lithuania's Foreign Minister has suggested exporting oil and gas to Belarus and he plans to discuss energy supply issues during his visit to Minsk next month, the Baltic Times reported.

Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company has also mentioned that the country has the technical potential to supply oil to Belarus, according to Azernews.

Reuters reports that the Ukrainian port of Odessa is also in talks with Belarus, although no deal has been reached.

Belarusian oil production cannot support the nation, causing dependence on imports.

6 | J A N . 2020

WESTERN EUROPE & CANADA Brooke Tanner

T

he impending threat of climate change represents a major concern in western Europe. Activists urge the EU to pass new regulations requiring companies to reach zero emissions.

Greta Thunberg, a Swedish teen activist, spoke at the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, on January 21. She warned EU countries and companies to cut emissions immediately.

“No political ideology or economic structure has been able to tackle the climate and environmental emergency and create a cohesive and sustainable world. Because that world, in case you haven’t noticed, is currently on fire,” she said, according to the WEF. “The question of achieving the Paris Agreement goals could be a matter of survival for the whole continent, and that is why there is pressure to act,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, Bloomberg Green reports. Germany and other European countries failed to reach emissions goals for 2020.

The WEF found in its Global Risks Report that the first five most likely global risks were all related to the environment. According to the New York Times, protesters at a Belgian car show wore masks and chanted “Shell kills!” about oil company Royal Dutch Shell.

However, there have been local-level protests against these new environmental regulations.

Farmers in Germany and Ireland allege that new restrictions on the use of pesticides hurt agriculture, reports the Express. The protesters’ signs included slogans such as, “No farm, no food, no future.”

European leaders are aware of the climate emergency. “The climate emergency is a disaster that knows no borders,” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said, according to Swissinfo. “We’re the last generation that will be able to effectively address it.” The Finnish Prime Minister also recognizes the importance of taking immediate and substantial action, telling the Washington Post, “We need to listen to the scientists.”

Greek Islanders Protest Migrant Camps Andi Kamyab Thousands of Greek islanders held protests this week over the government’s handling of asylumseekers on January 22.

The islands of Lesbos, Samos, and Chios are home to major refugee camps, but the rising number of immigrants has led to significant overcrowding. For instance, Moria, the largest camp on Lesbos, hosts more than 19,000 asylum-seekers, despite having the capacity for 2,840 the Telegraph reports.

On Wednesday, residents orchestrated a general strike, shutting down shops and public services, and took to the streets demanding restoration of their islands and greater administrative accountability.

According to BBC, by midday, around 3,000 protesters had gathered in Mytilene, the capital of Lesbos, while another 1,500 demonstrators were in the center of Samos.

The protesters raised signs saying, “We want our islands back,” while others posed more direct attacks on the country’s administrative body, with one banner reading “No more prisons for human souls in the North Aegean.”

Local residents such as 72-yearold Lesbos pensioner Efstratios Peppas called for more European responsibility on the issue, suggesting that asylum-seekers “should be shared out across Greece,” and that “Europe must assume its responsibilities. It too must take migrants.”

Though many of the protesters called for heavier controls on the influx of asylum-seekers, others were also sympathetic to the immigrants’ plight, seeing them as victims of the government’s negligence. Just this month, two young asylum-seekers were fatally stabbed in brawls at the Moria camp, per the Telegraph. In addition, three asylum seekers in Greek custody have committed suicide in recent weeks.

On Wednesday, North Aegean Regional Governor Kostas Moutzouris expressed his frustration over this violence, saying he was “annoyed” that the Greek islands had been “turned into places of concentration and detention” for thousands of people around the world. Giorgos, a local bartender in Samos, characterized the island as “a prison” where “the migrants aren’t allowed to leave the island. They aren’t free to go where

Spain Announces Climate Plan From p.1 The declaration also requires investing in carbon neutral farming methods. Further details of Spain’s climate plan will be made public when parliament receives the proposed legislation.

Spain’s recent efforts to make more substantive climate promises come amid large scale protests from climate activists. The AP reports that climate activists in Spain called for “concrete and immediate” climate legislation to be passed by the two main parties in the ruling parliamentary coalition, United We Can and the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), of which Sanchez is a member. The declaration also comes less than a week after Spain’s second-largest city, Barcelona, declared a climate emergency, according to the Independent. Along with the declaration, Barcelona Mayor Ada Colau unveiled more than 103 new measures to cut the city’s

greenhouse gas emissions in half by the year 2030. Colau has resonated with many climate activists in Spain and globally by saying, “this is not a drill, the house is on fire.”

While many climate activists celebrated the declaration as a win toward creating a sustainable and carbon-neutral country, others have vowed to continue fighting for further action. FridaysForFuture, a global youth movement founded by international climate activist Greta Thunberg, demanded the government take action against climate change in the Spanish city of Huesca. Moreover, climate activists in Spain are joined by global activists who are calling for immediate change by various world governments in order to take substantial action before it is too late.

According to climate scientists in a New York Times report, the 2010s was by far the hottest decade ever recorded on Earth.

they like,” BBC reported.

Greece has witnessed a dramatic rise in refugee numbers throughout the last twelve months. Last year, it became the main entry point into Europe for migrants, many of whom were fleeing conflict in areas including South Asia and Syria. In 2019, more than 59,000 individuals came to the country by sea, and 14,000 others via the land border with Turkey. The Greek government’s policy has sought to restrict these refugees to the camps as they await the processing of their asylum applications.

Human rights groups and medical

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charities have condemned the living conditions and resources in the camps, arguing that they pose “serious consequences to [the migrants’] wellbeing and public health,” reports the Telegraph. The agencies also warned of a rising “climate of discrimination and xenophobia” towards asylum-seekers.

With refugees themselves such as Hisham from Gaza calling the camps a “sickening environment,” and Martha from Ghana noting the feeling that the locals “don’t want the refugees here,” it is evident that both sides would benefit from more productive policies on the issue.

Refugees get off a boat from Turkey to the Greek island of Lesbos.

J A N . 2020 | 7

Irish PM Calls for General Elections Di Maio Steps Down Irish voters will head to the polls after Ireland’s Prime Minister, Leo Varadkar, announced a general election for February 8, according to the Irish Times. Campaigning is already well underway for the election, with 159 seats in the Parliament up for grabs. This general election will be the first election scheduled for a Saturday in more than a century.

Early indications suggest that the outcome will be close. A recent poll conducted by the Irish Times put public support for Fianna Fáil, the main opposition party, at 25 percent, with the ruling party Fine Gael at 23 percent and another opposition party, Sinn Féin, at 21 percent.

Announcing his decision to seek a fresh mandate, Varadkar stated that now was the best time for an election given the impending conclusion of the Brexit deal, which would allow the U.K. to leave the European Union in an “orderly” manner. However, his center-right minority government lost significant power in December 2019 after only narrowly defeating a vote of no confidence introduced against the party’s Minister for Housing, Eoghan

Murphy, by 56 votes to 53.

In early January, a number of Independent parliamentarians indicated that they would soon table another no-confidence motion, this time in Minister of Health Simon Harris. While this motion was defeated, it was clear that change was imminent. At this point, Varadkar “had to call an election on his own terms or be brought down in a confidence vote,” reports the Irish Times.

40 percent of people surveyed stated that health would decide their vote.

Fine Gael initially attempted to frame the election around its management of Brexit and the economy. This strategy, reports the Irish Times, has largely failed. In a recent Ipsos MRBI poll, 40 percent of people surveyed stated that health would decide their vote, with another 32 percent identifying housing as their most important issue. Fine Gael’s record on these crucial issues is poor,

and, according to The Independent, under the party’s leadership, both the number of hospital patients without beds and the number of homeless people rose to record-high levels.

Given these developments, the mood for change amongst the electorate is unsurprisingly vehement, with 75 percent of voters responding to an Irish Times survey in favor of a change in government and 55 percent indicating their belief that the country is headed in the wrong direction.

Unsurprisingly, the main opposition party, Fianna Fáil, has benefited from the widespread dissatisfaction with the government.

However, Fine Gael’s decline in popularity may also help a third opposition party. Sinn Féin, a leftwing republican party, has also surged, leading to predictions that it may enter government for the first time as a junior coalition partner.

In Irish politics, where coalition governments have been the norm for decades, the key question is not which party will have the largest win, but which parties will be able to broker a workable coalition deal; as of now, Sinn Féin appears poised as potential kingmakers.

Migrants Fail to Reach U.K. in Boat Grady Stevens

14 migrants seeking to reach the U.K. from Belgium in a small boat were forced to swim back to the shore of De Panne on January 21. Belgian authorities accounted for six of these migrants; however, eight remain missing, the BBC reports. Authorities believe that the migrants made it back to land.

Rather than taking the roughly 40 kilometer (25 mile) journey across the English Channel from France, the group of migrants attempted to travel 70 kilometers (43 miles) from the Belgian town of De Panne to the United Kingdom in a small dinghy. According to the migrants in Belgian custody, the remaining eight migrants lost at sea all made it back to land, though this is not confirmed yet. Attempts by migrants to cross the English Channel from France into the U.K. are common; at least 1,892 people crossed the Channel in 2019 according to research by the BBC. However, attempts from Belgian shores are much rarer.

Britain has an agreement with France involving patrols on French beaches to try to prevent small boat

crossings, as stated by the New York Times. With these patrols recently doubled in an attempt to reduce crossings, smugglers may be taking a longer, more dangerous route from Belgium. “The stress is getting higher.

Perhaps smugglers are trying to find different routes, other ways of getting into the UK,” said Bram Degrieck, the mayor of De Panne.

Five out of the six migrants currently in Belgian custody are Iranian.

A majority of migrants crossing the Channel in small boats are from Iran, according to the National Crime Agency, and five out of the six migrants currently in Belgian custody are Iranian. The Home Office discourages these crossings and has stated that asylum seekers should claim asylum in the first safe country they reach; however, according to the Home Office, about half of asylum applications from Iranian migrants in

the U.K. are granted. Migrants’ reasons for attempting to cross the Channel and claim asylum in the U.K. instead of mainland Europe are not unique and are different for each individual, according to experts.

Conservatives such as Natalie Elphicke, the member of Parliament representing Dover and Deal, argue that all migrants arriving by small boat should be sent back to France. Shadow Home Secretary Dianne Abbott has a different view, saying that “people making these dangerous journeys in small boats are likely to be genuine refugees.”

The number of small boat attempts to reach the UK from France has been high recently with French authorities reporting almost daily rescues of migrant boats crossing the Channel.

If a large number of these migrants were to attempt to cross from Belgium instead, they would be traveling almost double the distance, increasing the likelihood of failure and death.

“If migrants start to go further afield using longer routes the risk of fatalities obviously rises,” Steve Reynolds of the National Crime Agency said in December 2019.

as Head of Italy’s Five Star Movement

Martin Hiti

Luigi Di Maio resigned as the leader of Italy’s Five Star Movement (M5S), a part of the country’s governing coalition, amid declining poll numbers and rising turmoil within the party, reports the New York Times. Vito Crimi, a member of the Italian Senate, will take over as interim leader until a party conference in March.

Di Maio has faced strong pressures to resign as leader since September 2018, when the party lost more than 20 seats after forming a governing coalition with the center-left Democratic Party (PD), according to the Guardian.

The Five Star Movement, which began as a vehicle for antiestablishment Comedian Beppe Grillo, rose to power in Italy’s 2018 general election under then 31-yearold Luigi Di Maio, who appealed to Euroskeptics and Italians frustrated with corruption and the political class in general, according to the BBC. While M5S received more than 33 percent of the vote just two years ago, the party now polls at only 16 percent, reports the Guardian.

Per BBC, during his resignation speech at Hadrian’s Temple in Rome, Di Mario stated that “an era is coming to an end” in front of a backdrop which read “the future is now.”

It is unclear what the future will hold for the struggling coalition.

Two upcoming regional elections in Italy present the potential for further conflict. According to the Guardian, polls show that the Nationalist League, a far-right party led by Matteo Salvini, is expected to outperform M5S. Salvini and his Nationalist League were previously allied with Di Mario

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Kate Collins

and MS5, as the two formed a coalition government in June 2018.

Observing the decline in popularity of M5S, Salvini pulled out of the coalition in an unsuccessful attempt to trigger new elections, reports the BBC. Since the broken coalition, Di Maio has struggled with defecting members and internal demands to involve lawmakers more in the decisionmaking process.

According to CNBC, while many fear that the upcoming regional elections and Mr. Di Maio’s resignation will be detrimental to the national coalition, others, like Italy’s Minister for the Economy Roberto Gualtieri, have downplayed concerns.“The commitment to the stability of the Italian government is very strong from the Five Star Movement,” he said.

While he acknowledged the gravity of the upcoming regional elections, where the nationalist League has the potential to end 75 years of center-left rule, Gualtieri insists that the coalition formed between the M5S and PD will not be affected.

Nevertheless, it is uncertain who will take over the leadership of the struggling party. According to BBC, some suggest that Di Maio may try to stage a comeback at the party’s March conference, while others waiting in the wings could make a push to take over.

According to the New York Times, one likely replacement is Alessandro Di Battista, who criticized Di Maio and called for the party to return to its anti-establishment roots. However, Battista opposes an alliance with the Democratic Party, suggesting that the gap left by Di Maio will only generate further turmoil for the country’s politics.

Luigi Di Maio struggles to maintain support from the Italian public.

8 | J A N . 2020

LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN Shaily Acharya

S

ince the attack that killed Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani in January, tensions have heightened drastically between the United States and Iran, with many countries in the difficult position of aligning themselves with or against the U.S. Latin America has been historically considered an asset to U.S. interests.

However, as the power landscape shifts in the world, the countries of Latin America will face significant consequences as the probability of conflict rises.

According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. action against Iran has been rebuked by Cuba, significant members of the Venezuelan and Colombian governments, and “Iranian proxy networks in Brazil, Peru, Argentina, El Salvador, and Mexico.” Iran has made great inroads in these countries as part of efforts to undermine U.S. influence. As long as Iran’s actions in the Western Hemisphere are meticulously monitored, it will be interesting to see whether stricter U.S. policy toward Tehran will cause Latin American governments to suffer.

The Islamic Republic Guard Corps currently has a presence in Venezuela, International Policy Digest reports. This alliance between Iran and Venezuela is troubling for the United States, as it provides Iran with the perfect platform to stage an attack close to Washington, D.C. The 1992 and 1994 Hezbollah attacks in Buenos Aires and at the Argentine Jewish Mutual Aid Society (AMIA) building provide a historical precedent for such an attack. The Buenos Aires attacks resulted in the deaths of hundreds and had a lasting impact in Argentina and surrounding countries.

As fears and rumors spread about the outbreak of World War III, it is important to remember the effects of this global phenomenon on peripheral players. Latin America has a prominent place in the U.S.-Iran story, so as the events between the two countries progress throughout 2020, it is crucial to not overlook the role of this region.

Guatemalan Corruption Scandal Dismissed Robert Dohrman A judge for Guatemala’s Sixth Criminal Court dismissed the corruption case against politician Roberto Villate earlier this week on the grounds that it lacked merit, according to Prensa Libre. Villate is a congressman and the former secretary-general of the now-defunct Renewed Democratic Freedom Party (LIDER). Prosecutors working on behalf of the Public Commission and the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) had accused him of illegally financing his party’s 2015 election efforts.

The case’s dismissal leaves Villate a free man after more than two years of legal proceedings. In September 2017, courts stripped the congressman’s legal immunity so that he could face charges. Prensa Libre reports that his lawyers challenged the ruling more than ten times. The lengthy legal battle was resolved five months later in the Supreme Court of Justice, which overturned a lower court’s restoration of his immunity. By repeatedly challenging the ruling, Villate was able to avoid appearing at hearings, postponing the investigation into his

alleged crimes.

In their investigations, prosecutors from the Public Commission and CICIG had uncovered several discrepancies in the amounts spent on campaigning and the amounts that LIDER reported in its electoral audits. During the 2015 elections for president, vice president, and all 158 seats in Congress, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal set a fundraising limit of $6.8 million. The prosecutors allege that the party actually raised $9.2 million and did not report the extra money on its internal accounts or governmental reports. Instead, it allegedly funneled the money through third-party groups like the Association of Friends of Guatemala to pay for additional campaign advertisements and propaganda.

The ruling marks an early blow against renewed efforts to tackle corruption in Guatemala. The country’s new president took his oath of office last week and is already reinvigorating Guatemala’s fight against corruption. Al Jazeera reports that the new administration has made new efforts to investigate corrupt members of the previous legislature, such as executing arrest warrants

75 Escape From Paraguayan Prison Catalina Llorente At least 75 prisoners escaped from the Pedro Juan Caballero Penitentiary in northern Paraguay on January 21. The fugitives are members of a powerful Brazilian cartel, the First Capital Command (PCC). They escaped via a tunnel connecting their prison cells to the outside world.

According to the New York Times, the PCC cartel, which has tens of thousands of members, dominates the cocaine industry in São Paulo.

The Paraguayan justice minister, Cecilia Pérez, labeled the incident “extremely serious and unprecedented.

A matter of national security that must be addressed,” according to El Tiempo.

According to the New York Times, the prison they escaped from is near the Brazilian border, so “by now they’ve probably crossed over to the other side,” Pérez said.

She also reminded the country

and the world that the breakout did not come as a surprise. In fact, in December, the Ministry of Justice had alerted the Paraguayan prosecution, the national police, and the public that it had acquired intelligence that pointed towards a prison break plan to rescue the leaders of the PCC. As the New York Times reported, the plot focused on paying security guards a sum of approximately $80,000 to facilitate the escape.

Despite the country’s attempts to increase security, Paraguayan prisons have a history of being understaffed and underpaid, making them prone to corruption.

In fact, after the cartel members had snuck out at around 4 a.m. on Sunday, Pérez stated that it was clear that corrections officials had made the prisoners’ departure possible.

According to the New York Times, at least five prison guards were suspended and are under investigation.

against several congressmen for alleged influence peddling.

International organizations have previously highlighted corruption and impunity in the courts as major issues facing the country, the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project writes. Upon its departure after 12 years in Guatemala, CICIG described the government as a “mafia coalition” acting only in its own best interests. Similarly, in 2017, Human Rights Watch noted that Guatemalan courts struggled to keep up with delay tactics by corrupt officials, which often prevent cases against them from ever

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reaching trial.

Though the new government has not yet reacted to the ruling, its decision about the case will play a key role in how Guatemalans perceive the administration. Some citizens, such as human rights leader Hernandez Batres, have already criticized the president as being “more of the same,” according to Public Radio International.

Pursuing strong anti-corruption policies and ensuring that potentially corrupt politicians face justice could be therefore be crucial to winning support as the new government seeks to carry out its political agenda.

Protesters hold an anti-corruption march in Guatemala.

J A N . 2020 | 9

Guaidó Meets with Foreign Leaders Honduras’s Anti-Corruption Initiative Ends The interim president of Venezuela, Juan Guaidó, met with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Bogotá, Colombia, on January 20.

The meeting began Guaidó’s weeklong international tour that ended at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Al Jazeera reports that Colombian President Iván Duque welcomed Guaidó to the country by saying, “We are honored by your presence.”

He further noted that Guaidó would “always have a friend in Colombia.”

At the meeting, Pompeo called Venezuela a “failed state” and reaffirmed U.S. support of Guaidó and the Venezuelan people. Although he dismissed discussions of sanctions, Pompeo warned that “everyone can fully expect that the US is not done.”

By leaving the country, Guaidó defied a travel ban imposed on him

by Venezuelan courts more than a year ago after he declared himself acting president. This is the second time he has defied the order, the first being last February when he tried to force humanitarian aid to Venezuelans amidst a blockade by President Nicolás

Maduro, according to the Washington Post. Although recognized by more than 50 countries around the world, including the United States and its allies, Guaidó has failed to completely replace Maduro. Maduro continues to retain his power in Caracas and is backed by Russia, China, and the Venezuelan military.

By leaving the country, Guaidó defied a travel ban imposed on him.

After his meeting in Bogotá, Guaidó traveled to London, where he met British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Like Pompeo, Johnson demonstrated U.K. support for Guaidó, denouncing “what the regime of Maduro is doing to threaten democracy.”

On January 22, Guaidó visited Brussels and called on the EU to increase pressure on Maduro’s government through increased sanctions. While the U.S. maintains an oil embargo on Venezuela as well as individual restrictions on government

figures, the Associated Press reports that Europe has also enacted its own sanctions, renewed through November 2020. The European Union had been one of the first to recognize Guaidó’s presidency, but a veto by Italy in February 2019 prevented the Union from issuing an official statement supporting the interim administration.

In Brussels, EU Minister for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell reiterated his “firm support” for Guaidó’s “only democratically elected body in Venezuela” and advocated for a “peaceful and democratic” solution of the crisis.

According to BBC, police forces challenged Guaidó’s position as leader of the National Assembly in January by blocking Guaidó and his supporting lawmakers from entering elections for Speaker of the National Assembly.

Despite Guaidó’s reelection by a majority, opponent Luis Parra claims to be the legitimate speaker.

Reuters reports that Guaidó expects his return to Caracas to be “risky” and dangerous, yet he remains determined to unseat Maduro, especially after the administration attempted to prevent him from being reelected as the head of the opposition earlier this month.

State of Emergency Over Oil Spill Emily Sullivan The Ecuadorian government declared a state of emergency on December 22 in response to a 600-gallon oil spill that took place in the Galapagos Islands, according to the Ministry of the Environment. While the government quickly released a statement maintaining that the spill was under control, conservationists and Ecuadorian citizens worry about the effects it will have on the fragile ecosystem of the Galapagos.

According to Al Jazeera, the incident took place in a port on San Cristobal Island, about 600 miles off Ecuador’s mainland coast. As cargo was being loaded onto a ship, the crane lowering a crate lost control, falling onto the ship and causing it to overturn.

Crew members jumped overboard as the ship became unstable, but all were able to avoid injury. Galapagos National Park authorities worked alongside the Ecuadorian Navy to implement emergency measures, including oil-absorbent cloths, in an attempt to contain the spill, according to CNN. The Galapagos Islands have received

designation as a UNESCO World Heritage Site due to the uniqueness of their marine and land ecosystems.

Conservationists emphasize that the zone is especially important, as many species in it cannot be found elsewhere in the world. The islands are also famous for inspiring Charles Darwin’s landmark scientific work on evolution and natural selection.

Ecuador is no stranger to oil pollution... drawing criticism worldwide.

Recent oil spills, along with other issues such as over-tourism, can put all of this at risk. According to Al Jazeera, 60 percent of the marine iguana population was destroyed by a 2001 oil spill, and more than half of the reptile species in the archipelago are threatened or endangered. While scientists have not detected any adverse effects on animal populations from the most recent spill, it is impossible to know what long term effects it will

have on the ecosystem.

Ecuador is no stranger to oil pollution, with the decades-long Chevron-Texaco case receiving considerable media coverage and drawing criticism worldwide.

Ecuadorian oil pollution has had adverse effects not only on wildlife but also on human health and quality of life, according to Business Insider.

Ecuadorian communities have long demanded more responsible management of oil in their country.

This tumultuous history makes it all the more troubling to note that the same barge involved in the December 2019 spill sunk in a similar incident in February 2018, according to DW. Environmental advocacy groups issued strong responses to the incident. One group, SOS Galapagos, posted photos of the spill on Twitter, decrying what they called an “illegal and dangerous operation,” and asking that the work in the oil industry be moved to another site to reduce environmental impact. However, the Ecuadorian government has not announced any planned changes to the way it manages oil in the Galapagos Islands in response to this incident.

Adriana Salem

Four years after the Mission to Support the Fight against Corruption and Impunity in Honduras (MACCIH) was granted its mandate, the Organization of American States (OAS) and the Honduran government did not renew MACCIH. Last week on January 2, MACCIH’s interim leader Ana María Calderón announced her resignation. According to her departing statement, she made the decision due to “strictly personal and professional reasons.”

Shortly after, it was announced that the OAS and the Honduran government did not prolong their agreement, meaning that MACCIH would then cease its operations, according to the International Business Times.

Honduras has had a long history with corruption. With a 26 out of 100 score on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, Honduras ranks in the most corrupt 20 percent of countries.

Reports by Insight Crime referred to corruption as “the operating system” in Honduras, with deeply institutionalized ties that favor a small circle of elites. Unchecked corruption is at the heart of Honduras’s problems; thus, MACCIH was born.

OAS and the Government of Honduras signed MACCIH into existence on January 19, 2016.

MACCIH operations began in Honduras in April that year. Since then, it has focused on “active cooperation, technical advice, supervision and oversight of the State institutions responsible for preventing, investigating, and punishing acts of corruption.”

MACCIH was also the OAS’s first

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anti-corruption initiative held in a member state.

Since its creation, MACCIH has faced serious problems regarding its lack of independence in comparison to other international anti-corruption initiatives. As Latin America Reports explains, a lot of MACCIH’s success relies on its relationship with the Honduran Attorney General and Congress.

Through this initiative, investigations like the First Lady’s Safe, which revealed the former First Lady’s misappropriation of public funds, and Pandora, which exposed a network of 38 corrupt politicians, were brought to light.

About a dozen corruption cases were uncovered under MACCIH’s mandate, which, according to Global Americans, “were enough to scare the country’s political elite—an elite that is unaccustomed to being held accountable.”

In a country like Honduras, where corruption is a pressing issue, many feel that MACCIH continues to be necessary. A public opinion poll revealed that “61.3% of Hondurans would like the Mission to continue its work.”

The news of the Mission’s end was not only met with disappointment, but also outrage. Ana Rosa Quintana, a Spanish journalist, said that “President Hernandez has been on a crusade to shut down the MACCIH,” and that its end is unsurprising. Despite these allegations, President Hernandez took to Twitter to state that his vow to end corruption remains alive.

Conversation continues over whether the end of MACCIH will be a fatal blow to Honduras’ prolonged fight against corruption.

Honduran officials deliberate reforms at a MACCIH meeting.

1 0 | J A N . 2020

INDO-ASIA-PACIFIC

Arin Chinnasathian

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hile democratic backsliding has become common in recent years around the world, social movements are creating new ways to mobilize and sustain support in East and Southeast Asia.

With frequent police crackdowns on demonstrations, the Hong Kong pro-democracy movement has embraced wearing masks since the protests against a proposed extradition bill began in June, according to Reuters. These colorful masks serve to protect protesters from the police’s regular use of tear gas, Vox reports. The South China Morning Post finds that the masks’ subversive implications also drive their use.

In response to this tactic, Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam introduced a face mask ban in early October, according to BBC. This sparked spontaneous demonstrations in the following days as protesters are equipped to prevent personal identification.

Concerns over arrests pose obstacles to people’s participation in the pro-democracy movement. To mobilize the concerned supporters, protesters have devised methods to minimize the possibility of police intervention. Using sticky notes, people have expressed their anger since 2014 on “Lennon walls,” which do not require prolonged physical presence. Taiwanese protesters have also replicated these walls.

Thai pro-democracy activists have tried a unique method in their protests: appropriating charity runs. Under police pressure to cease anti-government protests, these activists organized a Run Against Dictatorship event on January 14, BBC reports. Drawing at least 10,000 runners, it is the largest demonstration in the sixyear civilian rule of the ex-coup leader and former-General Prayuth Chan-o-cha.

While the region maintains a poor ranking on Freedom House’s democracy index, it is likely that we will see more creative methods of demonstration as citizens strive for greater freedom.

Coronavirus Outbreak Triggers Wuhan Quarantine Alex Lin A coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China, has killed 80 as of January 26, prompting the Chinese government to quarantine the city of nine million people, the Xinhua News Agency reports. Authorities have confirmed more than 540 cases in mainland China as the virus begins to spread abroad.

Medical experts identified the new strain of coronavirus in January and confirmed its ability to spread between people, according to the South China Morning Post.

The contagious disease, which induces pneumonia-like symptoms, has no cure or vaccine. The outbreak is suspected to have originated at a Wuhan seafood market selling live animals.

Greatly exacerbating the impact of the disease are the 400 million people looking to return home before the Lunar New Year, according to the Washington Post. This extraordinarily busy travel season, called chunyun, is considered the largest annual human migration in the world. Moreover, Wuhan, the heart of the epidemic, acts as a vital transport hub for many

travelers in central China.

In response to the breakout, the government has shut down all public transportation in and out of Wuhan.

“Basically, do not go to Wuhan. And those in Wuhan please do not leave the city,” said Li Bin, vice-minister of the National Health Commission, in the latest public briefing. “We should not take this situation lightly and be on high alert.”

Zhong Nanshan, a leading Chinese expert on communicable diseases, corroborated Li’s statement. “We expect the number of infected cases will increase over the Lunar New Year travel period and we need to prevent the emergence of a super-spreader of the virus,” he told state broadcaster CCTV. Cases of this coronavirus have also been identified abroad, including in Hong Kong, Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and the United States, according to data from the CDC and the National Health Commission.

The latest coronavirus outbreak bears some resemblance to the deadly SARS virus epidemic in China during the early 2000s, which killed 774 and caused $30 billion in economic losses.

According to BBC, the genetic code of

China, U.S. Sign ‘Phase One’ of Trade Deal Genevieve Domenico The United States and China held a signing ceremony to finalize phase one of a trade deal on January 15, according to Forbes. This deal applies for the next two years and may help de-escalate the current trade war.

In the deal, China pledged to buy $200 billion of U.S. goods, according to Forbes. This money would be split among different industrial sectors, according to Reuters. Aside from product purchases, China also pledged to respect U.S. intellectual property. Moreover, the deal states that “[t]he Parties shall refrain from competitive devaluation and will not target exchange rates for competitive purchase.” This will provide more transparency in currency markets, as China has long been accused of manipulating currency, the New York Times reports. As for the Trump administration, they suspended

various tariffs and halved others, according to Reuters.

However, the trade deal may not be as productive as it appears. According to the New York Times, implementing and enforcing the deal could be very difficult. Some provisions are vaguely worded, and the deal has a non-traditional dispute committee.

Typically, countries appoint a neutral third party to work out disputes.

However, for this deal, the United States and China created a Bilateral Resolution and Dispute Resolution Office to evaluate issues that may occur, reports the New York Times.

This would allow the two countries to easily re-escalate the trade war by reenacting various tariffs.

While it expires after two years, the deal holds serious long-term implications. The deal suggests that international trade between the two countries will now be dependent on U.S.- China relations.

the two diseases are closely linked.

The SARS outbreak from 2002 to 2003 paralyzed the city of Hong Kong.

However, the Chinese government initially underreported the number of infected cases and withheld information that would have saved lives.

Researchers from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London claim that the actual number of cases for the latest virus is also substantially higher than officially reported.

Their updated study on January 18 estimated that 4,000 people in

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Wuhan are experiencing coronavirus symptoms.

Nevertheless, the CCP’s Central Political and Legal Commission admitted to having learned “a painful lesson” from its mistakes with SARS nearly two decades ago, and it emphasized that only openness can prevent “turning a controllable natural disaster into a man-made disaster.”

As a result, President Xi Jinping has vowed to invest “all-out efforts” into curbing the virus’s spread, and top leaders warned that any local officials concealing new cases would “be nailed on the pillar of shame for eternity.”

2019-nCoV (coronavirus) began to spread in Wuhan, China, in late December 2019.

J A N . 2020 | 11

Sri Lanka Ends Search For the Missing Amazon Announces Frank Kim Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has declared the 24,000 people still missing from the nation’s 26-year civil war formally dead.

According to the AP, the government will begin handing out death certificates to the families of the missing.

Rajapaksa summarized the contested move by saying, “I can’t bring back the dead.” In a statement during a meeting with the UN resident coordinator of Sri Lanka, the president described the missing as those forcefully taken by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and conscripted into their insurgent army, shedding light on the persistent racial tension between the Tamils and the Sinhalese majority.

The Sinhalese and Tamil minority are the two main ethnic groups that participated in the grueling, bloody civil war, according to BBC. The war began in 1983 when the Tamil formed the LTTE to combat Sinhalese nationalism and the long history of disenfranchisement that the minority group faced during the mid20th century. The armed insurgent

group used deadly tactics from the start, including suicide bombing, prompting violent retaliation from the government. The defeat of the last remaining Tamil insurgents and their leader ended the war in 2009, leaving almost 70,000 dead.

Insurgents used deadly tactics from the start, prompting violent retaliation.

Rajapaksa acted as head defense secretary during the last few years of the civil war, serving from 2009 until 2015 under his brother’s presidency.

During his appointment, thousands of soldiers, aid workers, journalists, Tamil citizens, and political opponents of the Rajapska family either underwent torture or went missing, according to the New York Times.

Relatives of the missing individuals express skepticism and grief over the president’s declaration. They claim that the government forced them to hand over hundreds of family members suspected of even the remotest link

to the insurgents, shipping them off in buses, never to return. Visakha Dharmadasa, who has searched for her missing son for 21 years, says she is “still waiting for him” and will keep her son’s certificate of absence even after his government-mandated “death.”

According to the Daily News, a Sri Lankan government-sponsored news agency, however, a spokesperson claimed that Rajapaksa was able to direct the nation toward prosperity after only 72 days in office, citing a special development program the president enacted to alleviate poverty.

Rajapaksa loyalists seized control of the Daily News in 2018 and ousted journalists with opposing views of the regime.

From the president’s perspective, ending investigations for the missing constituted an attempt to finally bring closure to the civil war.

Outside political commentators criticize Rajapaksa’s effort to end investigations, as well as the lack of independent, effective investigation, even calling the move illegal. Others argue that human rights violations during the Rajapska family’s regime were simply symptoms of the violence that ignited the start of the war.

New Investment in India Amid Protests Ishaan Rai

Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos traveled to India on January 16, where he vowed to invest more than $1 billion in the country despite protests against his company’s practices which some describe as anti-small businesses.

During his three-day visit to the country, Bezos outlined his investment plans for the next five years, which included introducing millions of small businesses to the online sales platform, the Guardian reported. “This initiative will use Amazon’s global footprint to create $10 billion in Indian exports by 2025,” he said while speaking at a small business summit in Delhi organized by Amazon. He pledged that the initiative would “help Indian businesses grow by selling online worldwide.”

According to TechCrunch, Bezos also announced a direct partnership with thousands of neighborhood stores across India, using them to “store and deliver goods.” “It’s good for customers, and it helps the shop owners earn additional income,” he tweeted.

Korea Discharges Transgender Soldier The military panel of South Korea’s Defense Ministry ruled to discharge Staff Sargent Byun Hee-soo, a transgender soldier, on January 22, according to BBC. After the military panel announced their decision, Byun attended a news conference at the Center for Military Human Rights Korea, where she revealed her identity and discussed her experience.

Byun registered in the military as a man in 2017. At the conference, she called military service her childhood dream. “I want to show that I can protect the nation as an excellent soldier regardless of my gender identity,” she said, according to BBC. “Please allow me the opportunity.”

The Defense Ministry claimed that the military panel based their decision on Byun’s medical records, not her gender identity, the Wall Street Journal reports. They cited South Korea’s military code, which classifies “removing or damaging one’s genitals” as a sign of mental instability, as the reason that prompted the review of Byun’s ability to serve. Challenging this claim, Lim Tae-hoon, the leader of

the military rights center, pointed out how the military did not provide Byun the typical three-months’ notice and instead discharged her immediately.

Lim argued that by doing this, the military sent the implicit message that it “cannot accept the presence of transgender people in the armed forces.”

The military did not provide Byun threemonths’ notice before discharging her.

Byun had gender reassignment surgery last year in Thailand after suffering from gender dysphoria and mental health issues, reports BBC. “I thought I would finish serving in the army and then go through the transition surgery and then re-enter the army as a female soldier. But my depression got too severe,” she said.

Members of the LGBT community in South Korea regard Byun and her experience as a “test case” for determining the conservative

country’s social, legal, and institutional attitudes and approaches toward gay and transgender individuals, the Wall Street Journal says.

South Korea is one of the few countries that continues to conscript men for its military; women, while not conscripted, can volunteer to serve. In the military, the punishment for samesex relations among members is up to two years of imprisonment.

Amnesty International and other human rights organizations have reported multiple instances of gay soldiers experiencing acts of abuse or discrimination.

Newsis, a mainstream news outlet in South Korea, reported on this issue, citing popular disapproval among the Korean public. Comments on the online report mention the challenges for other women in the military who would feel uncomfortable sharing bathrooms and living spaces with a transgender woman.

Byun affirmed that she will challenge the decision “until the end, to the Supreme Court,” and she expressed her determination to fight for the opportunity to serve in the army as a transgender woman.

However, many of the small businesses Amazon claims to help have been organizing protests in more than 300 cities across India against the company’s expansion. Protesters have wielded signs that read, “Jeff Bezos go back!” Sumit Agarwal, a member of the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT), the group that organized the protests, characterized Bezos as an

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Judy Jiang

“This initiative will ... create $10 billion in Indian exports by 2025”­­—Jeff Bezos

“economic terrorist.” He also criticized Amazon’s participation in “predatory and competitive business which destroys small retailers.”

Currently, Amazon has more than 60,000 employees in India, and the company has committed to investing $5.5 billion in the country. In addition, the Guardian reported that Amazon has built a new “campus” for more than 15,000 employees in Hyderabad, India’s tech hub. The project is both Amazon’s largest building worldwide and its only non-U.S. campus. The company has long set its sights on India due to its large population that offers a huge market potential.

Small businesses ... accuse the company of putting them out of business However, small businesses, which account for almost 90 percent of India’s retail sales, have accused the company of putting them out of business by “undercutting their prices and favoring large retailers.”

Bezos has also faced rebuke from the Indian government, as his itinerary included no meetings with any ministers or high-ranking officials, according to Quartz.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi reportedly refused to meet with Bezos, according to New Delhi Television (NDTV). The move may be a ploy by the current ruling party in India, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), to attempt to maintain favor with local shopkeepers and small businesses, many of whom form the core of the BJP’s voting base.

Jeff Bezos visited India to present his $1 billion investment plan for the country.

1 2 | J A N . 2020

MIDDLE EAST & CENTRAL ASIA Zoey Brown

I

n a rare move, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, led an impassioned Friday prayer in Tehran on 17 January. His speech denounced Western powers and asserted the power of Iran.

It marks Khamenei’s first Friday sermon in eight years, reports NPR. In his address, Khamenei cast doubt on U.S. intentions, claiming that U.S. leaders sought to push “a knife into the chest of the people” of Iran, according to CNN. He also referred to the Trump administration as “clowns” and condemned their “cowardly actions” in the region. The Telegraph reports that Khamenei went on to criticize European countries as “lackeys” of the United States, painting them as duplicitous in their dealings in the Middle East. He specifically referenced the supporting role major European powers played in the Iraq-Iran war.

While dressing down Western elites, Khamenei projected an image of a powerful and righteous Iran. According to TIME, he assured the crowd that Western tactics had failed to “bring Iranians to their knees” and promised that Iran would never negotiate with the U.S. In a spiritual twist, CNN reports that he asserted that Iran’s retaliatory strikes against a U.S. base reflected “the divine hand of God,” and he painted Qasem Soleimani, the Iranian general assassinated by a U.S. drone strike on 3 January, as a martyr.

Khamenei’s address served as more than just a religious service or policy announcement. In a fraught domestic moment, the ayatollah’s charged rhetoric represents an attempt to project authority and promote national unity. Since Iran admitted to downing a passenger plane a week prior to Khamenei’s speech, protests denouncing current leadership and demanding reform have rocked the country, reports Al Jazeera. In light of this civil unrest, Khamenei’s sermon calling for a rejection of the West and inflating Iranian pride reflects not only the frustrations of one man but also the Iranian government’s growing anxiety.

Israel Builds ‘Nature Reserves’ in West Bank Ali Taha Brown

Israeli Minister of Defense Naftali Bennett announced the creation of seven nature reserves in the occupied West Bank on January 8. Bennett, who is also the leader of the far-right New Right party, claimed that the territory was Israeli property. He stated that his goal was to annex the territory “within a short time,” according to Al Jazeera.

The proposed nature reserves would take up more than 5,000 acres of land currently owned by Palestinian citizens, according to the International Middle East Center. The Palestinian Authority (PA) condemned the move, saying that Bennett was “erecting a new colonial umbrella to fight the Palestinian presence in those areas,” according to Al Jazeera. The Jerusalem Post wrote that the PA may also “approach the ICC [International Criminal Court] to inform it of the legal dangers of Bennett’s declaration as part and parcel of the settlements file that will bring Bennett and others like him in front of the ICC.” Members of the UN Security Council have joined the PA in denouncing the annexation, according to a UN press release. Representatives

from Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Japan, the European Union, and more questioned the legality of Israel’s activities in the West Bank, specifically referencing the new nature reserves as part of a greater scheme to exert influence over Palestine.

In response, Bennet said that the territory “belonged to Israel,” according to Asharq al-Awsat. This is the first time a decision of this magnitude has been made since the 1993 Oslo 1 Accord, according to a statement from the Defense Ministry.

As Bennett is up for reelection on March 2, this move may increase support for his right-wing base.

Hagit Ofran, a member of Peace Now, a non-governmental organization working towards a twostate solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, explained another significant aspect of the latest occupation of Palestinian territory to the Associated Free Press (AFP). She said that due to Israeli laws, if the land was labeled as a nature reserve, Palestinians would be “forbidden from cultivating land,” thus making it easier to “evict Palestinians.”

This latest development in the Palestine-Israeli conflict has the potential to carry serious implications.

Central Asia’s New Social Credit System Madiha Sohani China introduced a social credit system in parts of Central Asia to reinforce its power and further its Belt and Road Initiative. This social credit system will allow governments to more closely monitor their citizens, making it easier for the Chinese government to punish undesirable actions. According to the Diplomat, “the exact list of undesired behaviors have remained secret, but the punishments are as real as the perks.”

While digitizing the means by which criminals are caught can create a stronger legal state, it can also limit the political power of individuals living in these countries. With this system, China has been able to crack down on illegal actions and by September 2018, 14.6 million people deemed “untrustworthy” by the system were banned from buying airplane tickets.

In 2019, the Uzbek and Chinese

governments closed a $1 billion deal to further surveillance in their countries.

The repercussions of this system in Central Asia include more dictatorial regimes and a very present threat for many immigrants in the area. 883 new cameras are being developed in Uzbekistan and almost 2000 cameras have been deployed in Kazakhstan; however, in 2018, the Kyrgyz government decided to turn down an offer to work with China’s surveillance system and opted instead to work with Russia’s new system.

This system appeals to many authoritarian regimes, as it allows for closer surveillance. To China, this system could prove to be particularly profitable in terms of the new Belt and Road Initiative. According to the Diplomat, a handbag producer could use this data to determine the preferences of their consumer and adjust not only the products but also trade prices based on the information.

With both major candidates for Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu and Benjamin Gantz, promising that they will annex the West Bank, Palestine faces an uncertain future. As Gantz seeks to garner support from Netanyahu’s right-wing base, both candidates will likely continue to try to appeal to people sympathetic to illegal settlements. Although Gantz may be more inclined than Netanyahu to negotiate with the Palestinians, given that he is more of a centrist candidate than Netanyahu, the prosettlement rhetoric that the two will likely espouse until the election may

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further deteriorate relations between Israel and Palestine.

Furthermore, this latest promise

by Bennett comes only two months after the United States reversed its policy on settlements, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declaring the settlements legal. Although many international human rights organizations and the United Nations believe that occupations such as the one proposed by Bennett are a violation of international law, Israel has shown little incentive to change its policy if the United States, its greatest ally, is indifferent.

Israel intends to expand existing nature reserves in the Israeli-controlled West Bank.

J A N . 2020 | 13

Chris Bass A deadly missile attack in Yemen’s Marib province killed more than 100 Yemeni soldiers on January 18, reports Haaretz. The strike, which targeted the mosque of a military camp, marks the latest chapter in the ongoing Yemeni civil war. Although the Houthi rebels have yet to claim responsibility for the strike, Al Jazeera reported that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the Yemeni government were quick to condemn the attack and placed blame squarely on the rebel group.

Haaretz reports that Saudi Arabia accused the rebel forces of sabotaging peace talks, stating that their “terrorist crimes deliberately undermine the path to a political solution.” Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi went further, asserting that this act of aggression “confirms without doubt that the Houthis have no desire for peace.”

This assault has effectively ended a period of de-escalation that began in September 2019 when UN-led negotiations and unofficial talks between the Saudis and Houthis led to the lowest level of violence in two years, Reuters reports. The recent

missile attack, however, represents one of the single most violent episodes of the entire conflict in a civil war that has killed more than 100,000 people since it began in 2015. Over the course of this war, the Houthis have frequently relied on drones and missiles, including attacks on Saudi Aramco’s oil fields last year, reports Al Jazeera. This latest strike on a military camp was apparently carried out in response to a series of attacks on Houthi positions

by Yemeni government troops.

The biggest effect of the Houthi’s offensive will be an escalation of tensions.

Three days after the attack on the mosque, the Saudi-led coalition supporting the Yemeni government retaliated by resuming airstrikes near Yemen’s Houthi-held capital of Sana’a, according to the New York Times. The ensuing confrontation saw both sides launching rockets and artillery, killing and wounding at least 35 soldiers and civilians. This violent response

suggests that the most salient effect of the Houthi’s offensive will be an escalation of tensions, pushing peace negotiations further out of reach.

According to NPR, Peter Salisbury, a Crisis Group Yemen analyst, believes that if steps are not taken towards deescalation, the current situation could devolve into renewed heavy fighting at levels not seen since the start of the war. Salisbury also noted that the recent uptick in violence may result in a loss of faith in peace negotiations among Houthi political elites.

Such an escalation of conflict seems inevitable as ongoing fighting between the Houthis and Saudibacked government forces conflate with a famine that UN has called the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. The additional fighting that this situation will engender deals a definite blow to peace prospects in Yemen--something that just months ago seemed a feasible objective. Given that this strike comes only three weeks after the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad, analysts and regional actors will certainly be closely watching Yemen for any developments in the greater regional power struggle between Iran and the U.S.

Jordan Bans Israeli Gas Imports Steele Schoeberl Jordan’s parliament unanimously approved a draft law banning all gas imports from Israel, Reuters reports.

Parliament passed the draft law on January 19 following widespread protests and public discontent against the gas imports.

Over the weekend, hundreds of protesters rallied in Amman. Their signs read, “The gas of the enemy is an occupation. Down with the gas deal,” Al Jazeera reports.

Israel began gas exports to Jordan on January 1. Reuters reports that the Jordanian state-owned National Electricity Company and Noble Energy Inc., a US-Israeli consortium, struck a $10 billion deal in 2016. Under the agreement, Noble Energy agreed to export gas to Jordan for 15 years.

Israel’s energy capabilities developed rapidly in 2010 after discovery of natural gas field Leviathan, according to Reuters.

Leviathan could provide 60 billion cubic meters of natural gas over 15 years, alongside an additional 25.3 billion cubic meters from other fields.

The total value is nearly $19.5 billion,

Reuters reports.

The recent strain threatens to damage Jordanian-Israeli relations, which have been unusually tense over the last year. In November, King Abdullah of Jordan remarked, “The Jordanian-Israeli relationship is at an all time low,” Haaretz reports.

The Jordanian public remains fiercely opposed to Israeli energy imports.

Historically, Israel and Jordan have a strange relationship. The countries fought a war that continued until 1994 peace treaty. Since this settlement, both countries have mostly cooperated.

That might be changing. The Jordanian public remains fiercely opposed to Israeli energy imports, despite potential economic benefits.

Many fear Jordan will become dependent on Israeli energy as gas imports represent a huge portion of Jordanian energy supply. According to the International Energy Agency,

natural gas grew from five percent to 36 percent of Jordan’s total primary energy supply from 2014 to 2017.

A protester told Al Jazeera, “We are here protesting against the gas deal which has been signed in 2016 without the knowledge of the parliament, and we want to send a message… we say enough with the humiliation, enough shame, enough selling our homelands.”

Al-Awad is not alone. According to poll data from the Arab Barometer, 42 percent of Jordanians view Israel as “the prime threat to stability in the region.” This sentiment might result from ethnic demographics as roughly two-thirds of Jordanians are of Palestinian descent, according to the Middle East Quarterly.

The gas import controversy highlights the shaky Jordanian-Israeli relationship. As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies court voter support, Palestine is an easy scapegoat. Among Jordanians of Palestinian descent, crackdowns on Palestinian autonomy are unacceptable. Under public pressure, the Jordanian government might adopt a more hawkish stance against its neighbor.

New Law in Kyrgyzstan Bans Uranium Mining Nithilan Vincent Kyrgyzstan President Sooronbai Jeenbenkov signed a decree banning the development of uranium and thorium deposits effective beginning of 2020. The bill’s authors said that the law was written in response to public demand, Times of Central Asia reports.

Uranium deposit development had been planned for the Ton district in northeastern Kyrgyzstan. However, residents of the Kok-Moinok village in the region criticized this development, citing concerns for the environment, agriculture, and tourism.

The new ban is intended for the “protection of health of the population, lands, water objects, plant and animal life, providing the rights of citizens to the environment... and also radiation and ecological safety.” The law not only bans the development of uranium and thorium deposits but also disallows the dumping and transfer of these materials within the country’s borders.

Reception to the new law has been mixed with many leading business associations responding negatively.

Times of Central Asia reports that the Union of Entrepreneurs of Kyrgyzstan, the Mining Guild of Kyrgyzstan, and the Association of Mining and Geologists have complained that the bill was passed in a hurry and will negatively impact the economy; the ban will supposedly result in the loss of development profits and harm the investment attractiveness of the country. They also argue that the language of the bill is too broad, as over 80 deposits could be included in the ban since other elements often contain traces of uranium and thorium. Independent expert Alik

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Yemen Missile Attack Kills More Than 100

Januzakov said, “The lost profit of the developers will be $4 billion,” at a press conference in Bishkek.

However, according to Doctor of Technical Sciences Kushbakali Tajibaev, the law promotes positive change. During the bill’s parliamentary discussions, Tajibaev proposed that the ban last 50 years, maintaining that more environmentally sound processes could emerge in that time for safer extraction. One kilogram of enriched uranium contains the energy of 100 tons of coal, and Tajibaev believes that Kyrgyzstan has the potential to be a hub for nuclear energy. However, the parliament dismissed his argument, opting for an indefinite ban instead.

The ban has angered several companies, Times of Central Asia reports. Several uranium mining companies plan to file multi-million dollar lawsuits against the government of Kyrgyzstan. This includes the Kara-Balta Mining Plant, which had projected $70 million in profit. Several investors who signed prior agreements with Kyrgyzstani authorities and invested large sums into extraction and processing of uranium will not see a return on that investment.

This situation presents an image of Kyrgyzstan that is not very attractive to future investors and may negatively impact future development projects.

The odds of a law like this passing in countries around Kyrgyzstan are low, says Professor Rustam Burnashev of Kazakh-German University.

Public influence is much greater in Kyrgyzstan than in countries like Kazakhstan. Those who protested against uranium development can take comfort in knowing their voices were heard.

Overhead view of a uranium-processing facility in southern Kyrgyzstan.

1 4 | J A N . 2020

AFRICA

Paulina Song

“A

frica loves America.

Africa loves you [President Donald Trump].” South African billionaire and businessman Patrice Motsepe made this statement at the World Economic Forum on January 23, according to Eyewitness News. His words have sparked controversy after spreading on Twitter.

One Twitter user joked, “I wanna be so successful like #patricemotsepe so that I can speak on behalf of a whole continent.” Others used Motsepe’s comment to critique their own societies, claiming that people “worship Americans everyday,” particularly its “culture, celebrities, entertainment, etc.” While this statement contains generalizations, the Pew Research Center found that 62 percent of those surveyed in Nigeria, along with 60 percent in Kenya, and 50 percent in South Africa, see the U.S. favorably.

Weeks later, Trump announced his intent to add Nigeria, Sudan, Tanzania, and Eritrea to the travel ban list, according to Quartz Africa.

Despite rising tensions between the U.S. and certain African countries, Motsepe was not without his supporters. Another Twitter used said, “Patrice Motsepe is 100 percent correct. In a globalized world, the success of America becomes the success of Africa...”

The tweet begs the question, who is included in the “success of Africa”? The controversy caused

by Motsepe’s statement reveals a divide between an elite class that exalts the West and those who are exploited and patronized by it.

The UN found that income inequality has risen in many southern and central African countries, while it has decreased in West Africa, creating a complex economic map. Nevertheless, South Africa, Motsepe’s home country, remains the most unequal country in the world, according to World Bank estimates. As one Twitter user put it, “Motsepe has some truth. Love is not just a feeling but also acts of reverence and honor.

African leaders revere imperialism and capitalism.”

Locusts Threaten East African Food Security John Fallows A devastating locust plague has descended on East Africa, putting the already struggling region at risk of food insecurity, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia have thus far been the most heavily affected by the locusts.

The FAO warns that “substantial breeding activity” is occurring in Egypt, Eritrea, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Sudan as well, indicating that these countries may soon be at risk.

The plague consists of “desert locusts,” which are regarded by the World Meteorological Organization as the most dangerous of the twelve species of locusts, as they move swiftly and can destroy large swaths of cropland very quickly. Swarms travel between 100 to 150 kilometers in one day. The average swarm contains about 150 million locusts per square kilometer and the daily food intake of a swarm is equivalent to that of 2,500 people.

The FAO stated that the swarm poses an extreme threat to not only individuals’ livelihoods, but also to food supplies in the region. The

locusts are fast approaching Ethiopia’s Rift Valley, which is regarded as the country’s bread basket.

Officials warn that current efforts to combat the locusts have been insufficient. FAO Director-General Qu Dongyu warned that “This has become a situation of international dimensions that threatens the food security of the entire subregion... in view of the scale and urgency of the threat, additional financial backing from the international donor community is needed so they [authorities in the region] can access the tools and resources required to get the job done.”

The FAO has advocated the use of aerial control methods, while Qu warns that significant humanitarian assistance will also be necessary once the immediate danger posed by the locust plague passes. “Alongside pest control activities our response must include efforts to restore people’s livelihoods,” he said. “Communities in Eastern Africa have already been impacted by extended droughts, which have eroded their capacities to grow food and make a living. We need to help them get back on their feet, once the locusts are gone.”

According to WMO, the scale and

Ceasefire in Libya From p. 1 Leaders are pursuing this current round of peace talks following an attack

by Haftar’s forces on Tripoli, home of the opposing UN-backed government, in April 2019. According to the UN, more than 1,000 people have been killed and at least 5,000 wounded since the start of this military operation.

Libya’s unstable government has experienced bouts of violence since the NATO-backed deposing of the late dictator Muammar Qaddafi in 2011. According to Reuters, Haftar’s Liberal National Army controls much of eastern and southern Libya, while Sarraj heads the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli.

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas alluded to participation by external powers in Libya when he spoke of his hopes for peace, reports Reuters. He warned, “If developments in Libya are allowed to continue, then Libya will be the next Syria and we don’t want that to happen.”

Turkey has long backed the GNA, while Russian mercenaries, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan have supported Haftar’s LNA. Foreign participation raised hopes that peace talks brokered by Putin and Erdogan would resolve the conflict.

In addition to political recognition and land, the rival governments have been fighting for control over one of Libya’s most valuable resources: oil.

According to Reuters, Libya used to be the third-largest oil producing nation in Africa. As conflicts have reignited, the country’s oil production has plummeted, leading to swift and acute economic struggles.

Despite Haftar’s words at the Berlin summit indicating an inclination toward peace, the Guardian reports that Haftar has initiated a massive blockade on the production of approximately half of Libya’s oil.

International leaders fear that this new action puts the ceasefire at risk by putting immense economic pressure on both GNA and the Libyan people.

severity of the locust crisis can be attributed to the unusually heavy rains seen in East Africa since October 2019.

These rains have provided optimal conditions for the desert locusts to breed, as they lead to a growth of vegetation in normally arid terrain, which facilitates locust population growth.

Guleid Artan, director of the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, said, “This has been a year of extremes and climate anomalies for East Africa, a region that hosts some of the most vulnerable populations of the world… Our climate is changing

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and it is already leading to hundreds of casualties and affecting the livelihoods of millions of people in our region.”

The WMO has warned that this unusually wet weather will likely continue as late as June, meaning that a further increase in the locust population is very likely. The FAO estimates that the population could grow by 500 times before weather conditions return to normal. A coordinated response by affected countries and international aid organizations will likely be crucial in attempting to contend with the worsening crisis.

A sudden rise in locust swarms has devastated East African crops.

J A N . 2020 | 15

Sonya Hu Seven African heads of state committed to combating the proliferation of substandard and falsified medical products by signing the Lomé Initiative on January 18, according to Quartz Africa. Congo, Ghana, Niger, Senegal, The Gambia, Togo, and Uganda will enact new legislation criminalizing the trafficking and distribution of fake medicines in all seven countries, with support from global public health partners and NGOs. Project Syndicate revealed that while counterfeit medicines are a global issue, making up an estimated 10 to 15 percent of the pharmaceutical market, the problem is particularly acute in Africa. The World Health Organization reported that 42 percent of substandard and falsified medicines found between 2013 and 2017 originated in Africa.

Fake pharmaceuticals comprise up to 70 percent of total medications in some countries. A 2015 study by the American Society of Tropical Hygiene estimates that 122,350 children younger than five years old die every year due to substandard antimalarial

drugs in sub-Saharan Africa.

Counterfeit medicines also play a concerning role in rising antimicrobial resistance, according to France24.

In 2013, the International Institute of Research Against Counterfeit Medicines estimated that investing $1,000 into the trafficking of artificial medicines can yield around $450,000 in profit. With a profit margin 10 to 25 times greater than that of narcotics, counterfeit medicines offer massive rewards that are not counterbalanced by significant legal risk.

Fake pharmaceuticals comprise up to 70 percent of total medications in some countries.

“This abject trafficking generates enormous profits for criminals and terrorists, destabilizing some of the most fragile countries in the world,” said Jean-Yves Ollivier, president of the Brazzaville Foundation, which coordinated the Togo conference, according to the Washington Post.

Despite the recorded loss of

human life and the costs imposed on public health systems, counterfeit medications area blind spot in many countries’ criminal justice systems.

“Fake medicine has often been regarded as a violation of intellectual property right[s], and not a crime,” said Togo’s president Faure Gnassingbe, according to Quartz Africa.

International Policy Digest reports that the Lomé Initiative entreats leaders to criminalize counterfeit medication and to impose severe penalties on what has been considered a misdemeanor or civil offense.

Halting the flow of substandard and falsified medications is challenging as fake medicine is difficult to track and is often indistinguishable from real products, according to France24.

The United Nations found that online and informal markets with minimal oversight also exist for fake medicine due to a lack of regulations and weak legal frameworks concerning medical sales. According to BBC, countries are currently working to develop new technological solutions to tackle the problem, including mobile apps, scratch stickers, barcodes, and other means of helping patients verify and track their medicines.

Ethiopian Parliament Passes New Gun Laws Karen Samy Ethiopia’s parliament passed transformative gun control legislation on January 16 following a surge in ethnic violence proliferated by private gun ownership, reports Reuters.

According to Africanews, the new Firearm Administration and Control proclamation bans private weapons trade and harshens the prison sentence for illegal arms possession. It establishes that each region may set its own legal age for gun ownership and limits the number of firearms an individual can own to only one, according to defenceWeb. Additionally, only specified government organizations can legally import guns, reports Ventures Africa.

The punishment for violating the gun limit is up to three years in prison, and those found to be involved in arms trafficking can receive a penalty of eight to 20 years in prison, according to Ventures Africa.

“There is [sic] a significant number of guns in our society since the previous government and the law will help formalise ownership,” lawmaker Tesfaye Daba told parliament during

the passage of the bill, according to defenceWeb. As of April 2019, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government claimed to have seized 21 machine guns, over 33,000 handguns, 275 rifles, and 300,000 bullets throughout the country, with hopes to seize more firearms. In October, security forces confiscated firearms in the Amhara region smuggled in by oil trucks from Sudan, the government told Reuters.

“The proliferation of illegal arms risks fuelling further turmoil.”

-William Davidson In 2004, a referendum was held to decide the placement of more than 420 kebeles, Ethiopia’s smallest administrative units, around its borders, according to Ventures Africa. The result was that 80 percent were given to the Oromia region, a highly unequal distribution which has contributed to the recent surge in ethnic violence.

The Amhara region specifically experienced escalating ethnic violence over the past two years, resulting in the deaths of hundreds and the displacement of over 2.7 million people, according to Reuters. These include thousands of Somalis who fled the country for fear of being targeted in response to the destruction caused by the Oromo-Somali clashes, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Reuters reports that Ahmed came to power in 2018 and put in place dozens of sweeping liberal reforms that earned him international praise but worsened regional tensions.

Despite loosening the previous administration’s iron grip, the federal government struggles to enforce laws, and there is a “perception of weakening law enforcement,”according to William Davidson, an analyst at the International Crisis Group. “The proliferation of illegal arms risks fuelling further turmoil,” he said.

According to the UN, reducing the availability and use of small firearms in places where fighting has ended has become increasingly important to Africa’s development prospects as a whole.

United Kingdom Holds Summit on African Trade Mark Agard British Prime Minister Boris Johnson held a summit in London on January 20 with the hope of reinvigorating U.K.-Africa trade relations in a post-Brexit landscape, reports the Guardian. Johnson took the opportunity to announce the United Kingdom’s intent “to build a new future as a global, free-trading nation. That’s what we’ll be embarking on, on 31 January.”

The UK-Africa summit took place a mere two weeks before Brexit becomes official. Vox reports that the UK will lose EU voting rights on January 31 before entering an 11-month transition period to negotiate the specifics of Britain’s departure.

An article published by the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) states,“We want the UK to be the partner of choice for Africa and the investor with the biggest impact in terms of quality jobs, growth and sustainability.” In particular, the article praised Rwanda and expressed hope for closer commercial ties in the near future.

The U.K. must contend with stiff competition to succeed in Africa as Russia, China, and other European powers contend for trade deals with the rapidly industrializing continent.

A report in the Financial Times stated that despite British rhetoric, “in Rwanda, Ivory Coast, [and] Ghana, three African countries with economic growth [at] around 7 percent in 2019 at least one EU country features in their top 10 sources of imports while the U.K. does not even make it into the top 25.” Furthermore, the article includes

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African Leaders to Criminalize Counterfeit Medicines

data that “In 2018, peer EU economies such as France and Germany exported to Africa more than double the value of goods that Britain did.”

In another Financial Times report, however, an unnamed senior British official acknowledged that, though the country is a latecomer to Africa, it’s “better late than never.” With this in mind, the U.K. has decided to focus on sustainable infrastructure initiatives.

Quartz Africa notes that in doing so, the UK will work with the African Development Bank to allocate £350 million ($458 million) to achieving these ambitious investments.

Development aid has grown to dominate Britain’s role in Africa. The Economist, reporting on Britain’s Department for International Development with respect to the FCO (comparable to USAID and the State Department respectively), writes that “the [FCO’s] core budget, now £1.1 billion ($1.4billion) a year, has greatly decreased over the past decade while the DFID’s has steadily grown. This is the case because, under British law, DFID’s budget must be at least 0.7 percent of GDP. Accordingly, most of the £14.6 billion ($19.1 billion) of aid provided by Britain in 2018 came from the DFID. African countries can expect the newly intensified attention to continue as the UN predicts strong population and economic growth on the continent, as Africans are expected to make up a third of the global population by 2100.

In the words of President Nana AkufoAddo of Ghana as quoted by the New York Times, “The wealth of Africa is undisputed.”

Boris Johnson invited 16 African leaders to an investment summit in London.

1 6 | J A N . 2020

EDITORIAL BOARD

Amid the clamoring protest movements around the world that in many ways defined 2019, the Caravel Editorial Board is excited to select its second Country of the Year. We award Country of the Year to the country that made the greatest strides in advancing openness, human rights, development, inclusivity, and peace.

In 2018, we recognized Ethiopia with our inaugural honor for then-newly elected Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s efforts to achieve gender parity, respect human rights and political dissent, end a longstanding conflict with neighboring Eritrea, and enter a new era for the historically troubled country. For 2019, this editorial board returns to Africa to recognize the incredible progress made in Sudan.

HONORABLE MENTIONS Hong Kong:

The first mass-demonstration of Hong Kong’s tumultuous 2019 brought thousands to the streets on March 31 in protest of a proposed extradition law amendment. Critics say that this law would open Hong Kong’s independent judiciary to political meddling from Beijing and its people to retaliation from a retributive mainland. The protests snowballed in the first week of June, drawing more than half a million people and at times turning violent. Fierce protests forced Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam to suspend the bill and, in September, formally withdraw it from consideration. However, these efforts

did little to assuage the concerns of protesters that Lam’s indirectly elected government is a tool of China. In November, Hong Kong’s populace delivered a stinging rebuke to Lam and Beijing by electing pro-democracy candidates to a record-shattering majority in municipal councils.

The persistence of the Hong Kong protesters in 2019 starkly contrasts with the pro-democracy Umbrella Movement of 2014, which quickly fizzled after protesters lost public support. Hong Kong’s steadfast defense of democracy and political freedom in the face of a rigid establishment and an encroaching China made it a strong contender for the Caravel Editorial Board’s 2019 Country of the Year.

Portugal:

Bucking the global trend of emboldened far right movements and rising populism, Portugal represents a beacon of stability in Europe. Despite the election of a sole member of Parliament from a farright party, the current government, led by Prime Minister António Costa and his Socialist Party, won reelection in October after a term of stable leadership. In 2019, Costa’s government brought an end to the country’s austerity measures, concluding its cycle of recovery. The 2019 deficit was nearly neutral, and estimates show that, in 2020, the country will witness its first fiscal surplus in more than 40 years. GDP growth has been stable and positive, in large part due to the country’s presented stability, as well as growth in its investment, technology, and tourism sectors. In light of Portugal’s improving economy and qualified government, the Standard

Demonstrations in Hong Kong fill the city streets.

WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

The views expressed herein represent the views of a majority of the members of the Caravel’s Editorial Board and are not reflective of the position of the newsroom staff or Georgetown University.

Protesters in Chicago take to the streets against Sudanese violence.

& Poor’s index upgraded Portugal’s credit rating. Its consistency, stability, positive progress, and lack of the dangerous patterns of nationalism visible in other European countries made Portugal a strong contender for the Caravel Editorial Board’s 2019 Country of the Year.

Sudan:

WINNER

Following four months of mass protests in Sudan, the military ousted President Omar al-Bashir on April 11, marking an end to his nearly 30 years in power. Conflict and controversy scarred al-Bashir’s rule.

The International Court of Justice charged al-Bashir with genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes for his alleged involvement in the Darfur conflict in western Sudan. The conflict has killed more than 300,000 people and displaced millions more.

The protests were mainly driven by the Sudanese Professional Association, a civil society group of trade unions for doctors, lawyers, engineers, teachers, and other professionals. The group was established in 2012 and operated mostly in secret to avoid arrest.

The Transitional Military Council (TMC) took over after al-Bashir was ousted. Defense Minister Awad Ibn Auf led the military junta but resigned almost immediately. Abdel Fattah alBurhan took over as the TMC head, but Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan—a leader of a militia accused of genocidal acts in Darfur—was in control. Talks between the TMC and the opposition began but halted on June 3 when TMC security forces killed 128 people in Khartoum. Opposition groups reacted with a three-day strike

WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

The Caravel’s Country of the Year 2019

from June 9 to June 11.

Negotiations in June and July finally led to the historic Political Agreement, signed in July 2019 by the TMC and the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC), a group representing the protesters. The deal included a power-sharing provision for the TMC and FFC until election. The Sovereignty Council was formed on August 20. Abdalla Hamdok was appointed prime minister at the head of a predominantly civilian cabinet.

With a background in economics, Hamdok set his priority on economic recovery and building peace. He stated after his swearing-in ceremony, saying, “We will have a plan that will address the immediate challenges through our recovery program, addressing the felt need by the people: issues of inflation, availability of commodities, wheat, fuel, medicine and all that.”

As one of his first reforms, Hamdok repealed the Public Order Act of 1992 which restricted womens’ freedoms.

This received international approval as human rights groups such as Amnesty International called the move “a step forward for women’s rights.”

Women played a significant role in the protests that eventually overthrew al-Bashir. As Hamdok stated, “the first thing we did when we started putting together the transitional government structures—we had in mind that our women should be represented not because we are giving them a gift or handout—because it is a just and well-deserved representation. They were part of this change.” He called the repealed laws “dehumanizing” and said that “the sky is the limit for our ambition in observing the human

rights of our people.”

After Hamdok landed in Washington, D.C., on December 4 (the first visit to the U.S. from a Sudanese leader in over three decades), the countries announced that they would exchange ambassadors for the first time in 23 years.

Hamdok sought to remove Sudan from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism. The U.S. added Sudan in 1993 in response to Sudan’s alleged support for terrorist organizations under al-Bashir. Hamdok hoped to reverse this by showcasing Sudan’s progress to a fledgling democracy, but the U.S. has yet to make any decisions.

Nevertheless, the decision to exchange ambassadors represents “a meaningful step forward in strengthening the U.S.-Sudan bilateral relationship,” according to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Being removed from the list of state sponsors of terror would kick-start Sudan’s economic revival and hopefully cut down corruption. Removing current sanctions on Sudan would reintegrate the country into the global economy, permitting access to International Monetary Fund and World Bank debt relief programs and investments.

A State Department official said that the new government “has shown a commitment so far. We are going to keep testing that commitment.”

CONCLUSION

From overthrowing a dictator to achieving significant reforms, Sudan has made significant progress in 2019.

By the end of the year, al-Bashir was convicted on corruption charges and humanitarian groups had gained access to certain populations for the first time in nearly a decade.

However, it continues to struggle with economic underdevelopment and human rights abuses. Peace talks with Sudan’s many armed groups must take place during the transition to civilian rule, and internationally-supported economic reforms are necessary to address corruption and revive the economy. This editorial board hopes that Sudan can continue on a path toward ever more stable democracy and consistent economic growth.

Read the full, expanded piece covering the Country of the Year in depth on our website.