The Caravel | Vol III, Issue I

VOL UM E I II | ISSU E I

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W A SH I N G TON , D.C. TUESDA Y FEBRUA RY 23, 2016

E. ASIA & OCEANIA Discovery of the World’s Oldest Tea p.2

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Trans-Pacific Partnership Explained

E. EUROPE & C. ASIA Pope and Patriarch Meet in Cuba p.4 Illiberal Democrats: Poland’s New Path p.5

LATAM & THE CARIBBEAN

Macri’s New Economic Reforms Shake Argentina p.7

MIDDLE EAST & N. AFRICA

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Congress Passes Electrify Act p.10 IS and al-Qaeda Compete for Influence in Sahel p.11

SOUTH & SE. ASIA Transgender Victory in Nepal p.12 Elections in the Philippines: Family First p.13

WESTERN EUROPE Europe: Democratize or Dissipate p.14 Merkel Alone in Refugee Crisis p.15

Georgetown Alumnus Sworn in as Ambassador to Panama Christina Johnson, The Anchor On January 15, John Feeley (SFS ’83) was sworn in as the United States Ambassador to Panama at the Department of State. A graduate of the SFS and a Marine Corps veteran, Ambassador Feeley has since had a successful career in the foreign service. Focusing on Latin American and Western Hemispheric affairs, Ambassador Feeley previously served in the Department of State as Deputy Chief of Mission at the U.S. Embassy in Mexico City, Mexico, Political Officer at the U.S. Embassy in Bogota, Colombia, and Consular Officer at the U.S. Embassy in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, He has also undertaken numerous assignments in the Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs. His wife, Cherie Feeley (COL ’83) also works as a diplomat for the State Department.

Ambassador Thomas Shannon,

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Yemen: An Evolving Underreported Crisis p.9

Signatories of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, 2010

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Rafael Correa’s Educational Vision p.6

Italian National Found Dead in Egypt p.8

have a mixed view of the agreement.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), signed by member states The Trans-Pacific Partnership on February 4th, is a free trade (TPP), signed by member states pact among 12 nations that border on February 4th, is a free trade the Pacific Ocean. The agreement pact among 12 nations that border contains a number of measures that the Pacific Ocean. The agreement proponents believe will strengthen the contains a number of measures that proponents believe will strengthen the global economic system, including tariff and trade barrier reductions, global economic system, including increased international protection tariff and trade barrier reductions, of intellectual property (IP), and increased international protection provisions aimed at enhancing of intellectual property (IP), and worldwide labor protections. provisions aimed at enhancing In the United States, election year worldwide labor protections.

In the United States, election year politics have brought the TPP to the forefront of primary discourse in politics have brought the TPP to the both the Republican and Democratic forefront of primary discourse in both the Republican and Democratic parties, and various think tanks have parties, and various think tanks have weighed in on its effects on the U.S. economy. Various surveys show that weighed in on its effects on the U.S. despite the arguments of those in economy. Various surveys show that favor of the deal, Americans seem to despite the arguments of those in favor of the deal, Americans seem to See Boon or Bust, p.16 Gabriel Gorre, The Anchor

Enfranchising Japanese Youth p.3

John Feeley poses with his wife, Cherie, for a photo after his swearing-in ceremony

Counselor of the Department, led the swearing in ceremony. He explained the importance of “dusty ways” diplomats, who work behind the scenes, and how their contributions are just as crucial to U.S. foreign relations as those of the diplomats working on headline issues.

Ambassador Shannon swore in

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Ambassador Feeley, who discussed Panama’s progress and outlined future relations between the United States and Panama. The new ambassador is determined to deepen what he considers “an already excellent bilateral relationship.” Since Panama and the United States are both popular immigration destinations,

Ambassador Feeley hopes to facilitate a united effort against human trafficking in the Western hemisphere.

Furthermore, with the completion of Panama Canal expansion projects due in 2016, Ambassador Feeley looks forward to strengthened trade relations and increased imports on the United States’ East and Gulf coasts. According to Ambassador Feeley, Panama is a necessary bridge that furthers commercial and democratic integration in the Western Hemisphere. In a discussion with the The Caravel, he noted that the canal “serves as an essential cog in the machinery of globalized commerce, with 2 of every 3 ships in transit destined for a U.S. port. Panama’s evolved, services-based economy means that the country is not and will not be in the future subject to the vagaries of commodity boom-bust cycles.”

See Ambassador Feeley, p.16

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EAST ASIA & OCEANIA Jee Young Kim

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ecent developments in the East Asia and Oceania region have been in the world’s spotlight, and not without reason. From the Bank of Japan’s implementation of negative interest rates to the decoding of the panda language, the region has been the source of a wide spectrum of interesting events, many of which have extensive economic, political, and cultural implications that extend beyond the region.

On an economic level, the crash of the Chinese stock market cannot be ignored. As the market closed down repeatedly, tension and panic spread to other countries in the region and throughout. However, the crash itself is not the most important aspect of this issue. Rather its underlying causes and implications demand to be analyzed. As economic growth slows down, the world’s eyes are on China as actors of all kinds, from regular consumers to multinational corporations, try to figure out how an almost endless list of factors contributed to the crash. These include China’s population growth, the performance of the Chinese yuan in the foreign exchange market, and the real estate market.

Clearly, a perfect storm caused the crash and its components hint at the path China might take in the future.

However, China is only one of many notable countries in the region. As the United States and its allies try to implement more sanctions on North Korea, as Mongolia’s GDP slows down to a concerning level, and as Australia and New Zealand take on bigger roles in resolving territorial disputes in the South China Sea, coming months and years may be filled with uncertainty and commotion. Ultimately, this is what makes the region all the more intriguing and relevant.

Disappearances in China Shrouded in Mystery Andrea Su The South China Morning Post reported that five men associated with Mighty Current Media, a publishing company and bookstore in Hong Kong, have gone missing since last October. Two of the men, Gui Minhai and Lee Bo, held British and Swedish passports, drawing both the Western and Chinese media’s attention. The bookstore, Causeway Bay Books, specializes in works critical of China’s leaders, spreading gossip ranging from corruption to their personal sex lives.

Three months after his initial disappearance, Gui appeared on Chinese national television confessing to a fatal hit-and-run accident committed in 2003. Lee told his wife through a phone call that he was in the mainland cooperating with an investigation. The Hong Kong Police released a statement on February 4th saying the remaining three were also under investigation by the Chinese government in Guangdong province.

In Hong Kong, the media speculated that the men had been abducted by mainland law enforcement agents, citing missing

records of Gui and Lee leaving the city as evidence. Not only would this be a major violation of Hong Kong’s Basic Law, but it would also jeopardize the safety of nearly one hundred political refugees currently residing in Thailand. The reasons behind the investigation and detainment of the other employees remain vague, causing thousands of protesters to throng the streets of Hong Kong in the name of justice.

Western media has sided with Hong Kong in its coverage of the incident.

CNN connected this occurrence with four other disappearances, hinting at China’s new pattern of reaching beyond its physical and legal borders to arrest critics abroad. Similarly, The New York Times reported that China has often arrested critical Hong Kong publishers on the basis of unrelated charges.

On the other hand, Chinese media has provided a convincing backstory to Gui’s arrival in China. According to a Xinhua report, Gui returned to his motherland because of his father’s passing in June. Overcome with guilt and remorse for the crime he committed, he finally decided to

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EDITOR’S NOTE:

Protesters against the “One Country, Two Systems” policy in the streets of Hong Kong

turn himself in and made a heartfelt apology to the family members involved in the incident. He insisted that his return was voluntary and condemned outside speculations on China’s ulterior motives.

Other Chinese sources have accused Western media and Hong Kong’s opposition party of using this opportunity to question China’s commitment to the “One Country,

Discovery of the World’s Oldest Tea Angela Qi Earlier this year, archaeologists discovered the oldest tea in the world buried in a Chinese Emperor Liu Qi’s tomb. Researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences retrieved the remains, which are believed to be 2100 years old, from burial pits in Xi’an. The stash of fine tea tips was spread 42 feet wide and eight inches thick.

The oldest written reference to tea is from the year 59 B.C. In another tomb, the Gurgyam Cemetery (built approximately in 200 AD) in the Ngari district of western Tibet, archaeologists found remains of millets, rice, and a kind of spinach and tiny leaf buds.

Researchers believe that the tea must have held important symbolic value since it was buried with emperors.

In addition, the discovered tea consisted solely of tea buds, the small unopened leaves of the tea plant usually

considered to be of superior quality to ordinary tea leaves. Although the plant remains were too damaged to be identified as leaves and buds, they were mostly likely from the Camellia plant.

Tea does not grow in Tibet or Xi’an, and therefore this discovery shows that the trade of tea products occurred in Xi’an as early as 141 years BC, and westwards into Tibet by the second century. The researchers claimed that, “these data indicate that tea was part of trade of luxury products, alongside textiles, that moved along the Silk Road around 2,000 years ago and were traded up into Tibet.”

Tea today is considered the most popular drink after water — threequarters of the world’s population drinks it regularly. While these details help paint a clearer picture of how tea became so popular, for now its origins are still shrouded in mystery.

Courtesy of David Cha

Two Systems” framework that has governed the two territories since 1997.

According to this principle, Hong Kong accepts Chinese sovereignty in exchange for a certain degree of political autonomy.

Ultimately, a lack of concrete evidence has left this incident open to the interpretation by the media and has further heightened the tension between China and Hong Kong.

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David Lim Recent provocations by North Korea, including its latest missile launch, expedited a movement to restructure the current alliance between South Korea and the United States. United States Forces Korea (USFK) dates back to the aftermath of the Korean War in 1953, when both countries signed the Mutual Defense Treaty to deter North Korean aggression.

“The United States remains steadfast in its commitment to the defense of the Republic of Korea and to maintaining stability on the Korean Peninsula, to include extended deterrence provided by our conventional forces and our nuclear umbrella,” remarked Lieutenant General Terrence O’Shaughnessy, Deputy Commander of US Forces Korea (USFK), after North Korea’s unsuccessful hydrogen bomb testing last January.

The new extended deterrence expects to see the deployment of highly strategic military assets onto the Korean peninsula. These include B-2 bombers, B-52 bombers, F-22 stealth fighter jets, and nuclear-

equipped submarines, enabling massive retaliation and the launch of precision strikes against key WMD facilities in North Korea.

USFK has always been quick to respond to North Korea’s provocations. In 2010, the USS George Washington participated in a naval

“The United States remains steadfast in its commitment to the defense of the Republic of Korea” operation in the Yellow Sea after the sinking of Cheonnan. Following North Korea’s nuclear tests in February 2013 last month, several B-52 and B-2 bombers flew over the Korean peninsula from Guam to signify America’s nuclear umbrella.

USFK took steps to respond to the latest missile launch by deploying more Patriot missiles into the current forces stationed in the peninsula.

Patriot missiles can intercept North Korea’s short-range missiles in addition to the longer-range Scud and Rodong missiles that can target the

entire Korean peninsula.

The Pentagon’s latest report to Congress expressed serious concerns over North Korea’s Special Operations forces, labelling them as “the most highly trained, well-equipped, best fed, and highly motivated [forces].”

As a result, the upcoming Key Resolve/Foal Eagle exercise (KR/FE), an annual joint exercise the USFK and its allies conduct, expects to witness record-breaking scale and noticeable changes. According to the Ministry of Defense, the upcoming KR/FE will incorporate 5750 more personnel and 45 more fighter jets. Discussions over the deployment of the nuclearpowered supercarrier USS John C Stennis are also gaining thrust.

This year’s KR/FE will also be a testing ground for the revised operation plan, OPLAN, devised last August. In contrast to its preceding OPLAN 5027, the current OPLAN 5015 focuses on the early detection of North Korean missile launches and preemptive strikes on key North Korean military facilities and assets. It focuses on the 4D concepts of detect, disrupt, destroy, and defense that last year’s Security Consultative Meeting established.

Japan Enfranchising their Youth Jackie Landry

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Japan’s new measure of decreasing the voting age from 20 to 18 transforms the political landscape.

Some wonder if this change is a response to Japan’s problem as the world’s fastest aging population.

As The Association for Promoting Fair Elections reports, Japan’s 60 and 70 year olds have proportionally higher voter turnout than younger populations. By lowering the minimum age, politicians may hope

to diversify their voting blocs. Still, is Japan ready to accept this new change?

The largest share of Japan’s budget finances social security and nursing coverage, and this proportion will continue to rise. Intergenerational conflicts have erupted because each age group has different interests and needs. However, politicians tend to neglect the youth’s concerns, such as job security, in favor of medical care for the elderly. After lowering the voting age, politicians will have to

Japan’s National Diet, which faces new challenges from the change in voting age

change tactics.

As a result of the change, youth activism has already picked up, resulting in organizations such as Students Emergency Action for Liberal Democracy (SEALDs). This group of young, politically aware students energetically calls for the Japanese government to uphold freedom and democracy for all.

According to the group’s website, the organization advocates for constitutionalism, social security, and national security. The increased political involvement and strong desire to create change belies critics’ beliefs that the youth will not actually participate.

Many professionals and specialists, such as Daisake Hayashi of Toyo University, support the new law.

Through his own research, influenced by the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Children, Hayashi concludes that children’s civil opinions should matter just as much as any adult’s.

Japan’s new bill will introduce a new type of voters and bring different issues to the table. The political landscape is sure to change.

North Korea’s Curious ‘Stable Instability’ Sarah Mack North Korea’s recent rocket launch and nuclear test have set off waves of uncertainty and frustration throughout the international community. Officials in South Korea, the United States, Japan, and other nations have expressed their concern that such military developments

by North Korea could pose a very real threat to their own security and disrupt regional cooperation in East Asia.

Despite crushing sanctions and fervent disapproval from the international community and its nominal ally in Beijing, North Korea has conducted a nuclear test approximately once every three years since 2006.

However, if Kim Jong-Un utilizes any of the nuclear weapons in his country’s arsenal, he risks disrupting the delicate equilibrium that has kept his family in power for the past 68 years.

Any large-scale act of military aggression directed against troops from the United States could provoke Washington to engage in a full military effort. American Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said in an online podcast that the U.S must show that “North Koreans… will be dealt with and that they stand no chance of defeating us.”

Some analysts have speculated as to what has motivated Kim JongUn and his late father to continue testing nuclear weapons and lauding their successes, especially given

the international community’s active response. Go Myong-hyun, a researcher at the Asian Institute for Policy Studies, claims that this erratic behavior “is exactly what North Korea wanted.” The North Korean media outlets intend not just to assert their nation’s dominance on the world stage, but also to provoke a negative response from the international community.

The North Korean government can use this as propaganda to demonize the international community and unify its people. When faced with reduced food aid, the shuttering of the Kaesong industrial complex, or even the blasting of South Korean pop music over the border, Kim Jong Un and other North Korean officials can remind its people of the ideological and military threats that lie just outside their country’s borders.

By blaming their internal problems on external forces, the government simultaneously legitimizes its own iron-fisted rule over the country’s 27 million people, draws attention away from its own fallacies, and keeps the population too weak to rebel.

Leaders in Pyongyang have historically used fear of a common perceived threat, contrived or otherwise, to rally the population together. While some may say that the aggression of the country’s leaders is erratic, each move taken by the East Asian dictatorship strengthens itself internally. Therefore, brinksmanship and antagonism assure North Korea’s stability.

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Deeper U.S. Commitment in S. Korea

Propaganda poster on the streets of North Korea honoring the country’s leadership

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EASTERN EUROPE & CENTRAL ASIA Pope and Patriarch Meet in

Nagorno-Karabakh: A Forgotten War Late in December 2015, the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan sat down together for the first time in more than a year to discuss the long frozen conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh.

According to the Associated Press, the meeting on December 19 came just nine days after the Azeri president accused the Armenians of escalation.

Nagorno-Karabakh, or Artsakh to Armenians, is a contested territory between the former Soviet republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The area, traditionally an ethnic Armenian region, was turned into an autonomous republic within the Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan following Soviet intervention in the Caucuses post-Russian Civil War. The region became contested, as did many other autonomous republics, during the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In 1988, an Armenian secessionist insurgency began, seeking a union with Armenia. Fully open conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan

TAJIKISTAN KAZAKHSTAN 4.3

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Map of the Nagorno-Karabakh Region.

Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Minsk Group declared that “the status quo is unacceptable” and that only a negotiated peace settlement would provide a better future for the region. Despite this, the number of ceasefire violations has increased. In January, the Defence ministries of both Azerbaijan and Armenia claimed around 120 violations in a single day.

The U.S. ambassador and co-chair of the OSCE group, James Warlick, told The Daily Sabah that, “the ongoing violence was unacceptable.”

The current crisis in Middle East leaves major powers in a bind. An

Percy Metcalfe

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unfreezing of the conflict could lead to a struggle between the regional powers of Turkey and Iran, who are already at odds over the Syrian conflict. Such a confrontation would worsen present tensions between Russia and the United States. Russia, an ally of both Armenia and Azerbaijan as well as leader of the Eurasian Economic Union, would be at a disadvantage if an active war took place on its southern border. Likewise, the United States, which is home to significant Armenian-American population, would face opposition at home and from Turkey if conflict were to break out.

NATO Deploys Troops to Eastern Europe

EECA 2014 VS 2015 GROWTH RATES 7%

Cuba

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broke out when the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh was declared in 1991. The Azeris, despite having greater access to larger Soviet arsenals, lost the Nagorno-Karabakh and other swathes of Azerbaijani territory to combined Armenian-Karabakhi forces. Russia mediated a ceasefire in 1994 and maintained the post-war status quo.

The end of the war left the Armenian militarily successful but isolated.

Azerbaijan found strong support from Turkey. The Turkish government has created an effective economic blockade of landlocked Armenia, with the country’s only remaining open land border consisting of a short stretch of mountainous territory shared with Georgia. Turkey has also bypassed Armenia with infrastructure projects such as the Kars-Tbilisi-Baku railway and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline.

As of yet, all previous attempts to bring an end to the conflict have failed. A 2010 report of the situation by the Organization for Security and

Michael Newton

NATO leaders recently announced plans to massively increase the alliance’s military presence in Eastern Europe. The move is a response to the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea and recent troop buildup and activity along Russia’s Western border as well as increasing support for separatists in Eastern Ukraine. NATO’s hope is that the reinforcement will deter Putin from pursuing more policies of aggression in the region.

Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary General, has stated that the force will be “multinational to make clear that an attack against one ally is any attack against all allies.”

According to the BBC, the United States has separate plans to quadruple its military spending for Europe.

Pending congressional approval, the Pentagon’s “European Reassurance

Initiative” budget will swell from $789m to $3.4bn.

The announcement of increased NATO and US involvement near Russia has reassured a number of Eastern European leaders.

“Deterrence is what we are after,” said the defense minister of Latvia, which is one of the countries perceived to be most threatened by Russia’s military posturing. The exact framework, size and positioning of the rest of the force will be decided at the next meeting of NATO heads of state in June.

Unsurprisingly, Russia has vowed to respond to the NATO buildup.

Most likely, there will be an influx of Russian troops in regions that border nations harboring Western forces.

Moscow’s envoy to NATO, Alexander Grushko, announced on Russian television that the deployment “can’t be left without a military-technical answer.”

On Friday, February 12, Pope Francis and Patriarch Kirill greeted one another at a historic meeting in Cuba. The two religious leaders met during their layovers at the José Martí International Airport in Havana. The meeting marked the first time the Roman Pope has met the Orthodox Patriarch since the two churches split in the Great Schism of 1054.

As The Moscow Times is keen to point out, the meeting occurred with the blessing of the Kremlin, which sees itself as a defender of Christendom against the West’s “decadent heathenism.”

Unsurprisingly, this meeting was geopolitically charged. The leaders discussed two contentious issues: Syria and Ukraine.

The New York Times reports that Syria was the primary focus, leading the two to issue a statement urging for the defense of Christians in the region and the prevention of further war.

The two men agreed that they must work to defend persecuted Christians in the Middle East and according to The Moscow Times, “call on the world community to unite against violence and terrorism.”

Ukraine was heavily discussed as well, but the two leaders opted to focus on Catholic influence in Western Ukraine, rather than the Crimean conflict. According to Ukraine Today, Russia believes the Catholic Church is actively proselytizing in Ukraine, which the Russian Orthodox Church views as part of its sphere of influence through the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church - an Eastern Catholic church that practices Orthodoxy in all but name.

The meeting represents a coming together between the East and West, yet the churches remain at odds due to the Russian Orthodox Church’s direct affiliation with the Kremlin and the Papacy’s influence in the West.

F E B. 23, 2016 | 5

Illiberal Democrats: Poland's New Path In January, Poland was rocked by protests when President Andrzej Duda signed a media bill that ended the terms of the management and supervision boards of state news agencies. The bill asserted that the agencies needed to be more “impartial,” as reported by Radio Poland. In response, the Committee for the Defense of Democracy (KOD), a social activist group, led protests all over the country, expressing fears that public news would become a soapbox for a government “moving in the direction of dictatorship.”

Further tensions emerged later in the month over a new surveillance law and police bill that would give the Polish government greater powers to investigate criminal suspects by monitoring Internet data and wiretapping. The bills were passed by the newly-elected Law and Justice Party (PiS), which has been leading Poland since the conclusion of the general elections at the end of last year.

Mateusz Kijowski, the leader of the KOD, organized protests in more than 40 Polish cities, stating that the new bills were “yet another form of violating our freedom.”

Additional domestic protests sprung up early in February as well, with MSN reporting that thousands of shopkeepers had taken to the streets of Warsaw to protest a new turnover tax on grocers. The retail sales tax,

This trend of protests over domestic and foreign issues underscores a growing sense of fear and insecurity among the Polish people, visible across the political spectrum. According to a survey by TNS Poland, a research and marketing agency, 51% of Poles believe the country is “headed in the wrong direction” and less than a

The government is seeking to make two billion zlotys with the tax through 2016. described as a “supermarket tax” by the government, has small business owners worried that it could bankrupt them. The government is seeking to make two billion zlotys with the tax through 2016, which one shopkeeper views as a plot to fund a new monthly 500 zloty allowance handout to families for each child they have.

However, civil unrest has not arisen only in response to domestic worries. In early February, thousands took to the streets of Warsaw to protest the government’s intention to take in 400 refugees from the Middle East, a number far below the 7,000 that the previous administration had negotiated with the European Union.

third regard the current situation in a positive light, in spite of the rapid pace of reform pushed by the PiS. While still in its early stages, the novice PiS government must either find a way to assuage public fears or conform to the will of the people if it seeks to increase internal stability in the future.

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Denis Tchaouchev

A Defense of Democracry (KOD) demonstration in December 2015

Bombing in Ankara Threatens Syrian Peace Efforts “It must be known that Turkey will not hesitate to use its legitimate right to defend itself always, everywhere and under any circumstances,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared in his statement following the bombing in Ankara on February 17.

At least 28 people were killed when a bomb targeting military vehicles of the Turkish Armed Forces exploded on Thursday evening.

According to Reuters, Turkey

suspects the Syrian Kurdish YPG, a group backed by the United States in its fight against the Islamic State (IS), of coordinating the attack.

However, the Kurdish Freedom Hawks (TAK), a more radical wing of Kurdish separatists, has since claimed responsibility. The U.S., which does not consider the YPG a terrorist organization, has refused to confirm or deny the group’s involvement in the Ankara bombing, thus further complicating the uneasy relations with its ally.

Kurdishstruggle, retrieved via Flickr

Tamara Evdokimova

Syrian-Kurdish YPG fighters in uniform.

The Turkish government views YPG as “an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party, a Turkish-Kurdish rebel group fighting for autonomy since the 1980s,” BBC reports. Despite the proliferation of factional disagreement among Kurdish groups within Turkey, the government does not differentiate between their competing interests and condemns any rebel activity on its soil.

The YPG has in turn accused Turkey of aiding IS militants by attacking Kurdish-held territory, writes BBC. Following the attack on its capital, Turkey renewed its shelling of the YPG Kurdish fighters inside Syria, an action immediately condemned by the U.S. and EU. Russia went so far as to propose a UN resolution condemning “cross-border shelling, the flow of terrorist fighters and the illegal movement of weapons from Syria’s ‘neighbors’,” according to Voa News.

This proposition may further escalate tensions between Russia and Turkey, which deteriorated when Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet that it claims entered its airspace while flying missions in Syria.

Turkey’s UN envoy dismissed Russian accusations. “Turkey will not be going into Syria with boots on the ground if it is not a collective action,” he stated.

The attack against Turkey will likely affect the international coalition involved in battling IS. By creating disunity among already wary partners, it allows IS to push back against the Kurds, weakened by the Turkish bombardment, and to regain some of the territory it has lost as a result of Russian airstrikes.

Turkey, which has already lost a potentially valuable ally in Russia after its jet fiasco, may further distance itself from the U.S should it choose to continue its shelling of the Kurds.

Invoking the NATO alliance against those responsible for the Ankara bombing may also set a dangerous precedent for a disproportionate military response to an isolated incident.

Finally, Washington’s hesitation to even condemn Turkey’s attackers demonstrates its lack of commitment to the security of its allies when its own interests are not in jeopardy.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Luis Joy Perez

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his month, continued unrest in Ukraine has captured the world's attention. Corruption scandals threaten to take down the government - or do they?

Ukraine, like many former Soviet satellite states, has had an endemic corruption problem for decades that has led the Ukrainian public to overthrow their president... twice. In 2004 and 2013, millions turned out to end oligarchic politics, sham elections, and disregard for the rule of law. In both years, Western governments and media trumpeted these movements and heralded them as new ages for Ukraine and the region based on the principles of liberal democracy.

After the success of the Maidan movement in 2014, Ukrainians elected a new government and a President, hoping to break the vicious cycle of corruption and oligarchy. The results have been disappointing, to say the least. In October 2015, a viral video showed some Ukrainian MPs manhandling the Prime Minister away from his podium.

The reason? Allegations that the Prime Minister was involved in a corruption ring. The Prime Minister has seen his approval ratings plummet.

In grand fashion, the Economy Minister resigned citing corruption in the highest echelons of power. Amid the distrust of the government, the President called for the Prime Minister’s resignation - only to see him survive a vote of no-confidence.

The government will continue to face problems as long as the Prime Minister remains in office.

The focus on his persona will take away time and effort from actual governance.

The fact is that, despite the Euromaidan, Ukrainian oligarchs continue to call the shots. The IMF’s Christine Lagarde has called out the government’s tepidness to wrest off “vested interests”. It is an insult to the martyrs who lost their lives on the Maidan and to Ukrainians.To achieve the reform needed to succeed, the government must resign, the holdovers of the Yanukovych era must be fired, and the oligarchs must be brought to heel.

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LATIN AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN

Kyle Tillotson

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n Colombia’s prisons, the country’s half-century long civil war is far from over.

A recent report by El Espectador paints a gruesome scene of bodies dismembered and unceremoniously tossed into the sewers of La Modelo prison.

According to Caterina Heyck Puyana, the special prosecutor in charge of the case, the victims include inmates as well as people who had nothing to do with the prison.

These issues only came to light as authorities began to investigate the 15 year old kidnapping and rape of journalist Jineth Bedoya.

Bedoya’s investigations into disappearances and corruption at La Modelo brought her into conflict with inmates and former paramilitary leaders Mario “The Baker” Jimes Mejia and Alejandro Cardenas Orozco, who perpetrated the crimes against her out of revenge. For a time, Mejia and Orozco ran entire wings of the prison, allowing what Heyck called “a very dark phenomenon” to take place.

These bodies should serve as a reminder that Colombia’s troubles are not going anywhere anytime soon—regardless of what optimistic reports come from peace talks in Havana.

Be it prison overcrowding, impunity, or freedom of the press, no agreement will make these problems magically disappear.

The gruesome crime against Bedoya, who has spent 15 years fighting for justice, should not be ignored in this discussion. The fact that a high profile reporter can fight for justice for years to no avail illustrates just how pervasive the problem is.

With the question of justice figuring so prominently in the Colombian peace process, the country’s criminal justice system is now in the spotlight. Now, politicians have two possibilities: they can wish that this spotlight were shining on something more positive, or take concrete, constructive action to improve Colombia’s justice system.

Pope Francis Threads Peace in Ciudad Juarez Edwin Lopez On February 17, over 200,000 pilgrims awaited Pope Francis’ arrival in Ciudad Juarez, anxious for a blessing and a moment of peace.

The Pope chose the beleaguered border town to conclude his week-long tour of Mexico, where he addressed issues including forced migration, mass incarceration, and drug violence.

“I was often at the point of tears,” Pope Francis said at the mass in Ciudad Juárez, “seeing a people that suffered so much, with so much hope.”

But for the citizens of Ciudad Juárez, the Pope’s presence represented more than an ecclesiastic visit or a political message. It was an opportunity to show the world that their city, once infamously known as the murder capital of the world, is on the road to peace.

“Fortunately, this time we will capture the world’s attention but in a positive light, because of the Pope’s visit and not because of the violence we suffered for years,” commented Daniel Alberto Figueroa, a souvenir salesman.

“We are doing well, we are pushing

ahead, but I also believe his visit is going to help us–it’s going to fill us with peace and tranquility,” he added.

Along the road, billboards echoed Figueroa’s perspective with messages such as, “Juárez welcomes you with love and peace, Francis.” Meanwhile, pilgrims wore “Juárez in Peace” shirts, and the diocese organized a mass dedicated to the victims of violence and forced migration, as well as visits to the city’s inmates and entrepreneurs.

Even the city’s landscape changed in anticipation of the messenger from the Holy See. In the weeks before the visit, the city’s administration rushed to fix potholes, broken telephone cables, and the greenery the Pope would see as he drove through the city.

Famously, Reforma ran an article titled “Pope Works Miracles Prior to Arrival in Mexico” that covered the uncharacteristic investment in the urban landscape in anticipation of the dignitary’s visit.

In addition to the physical changes, the city witnessed a large influx of federal and state security forces.

On social media, El Diario de Juárez police beat journalist Lucy

Rafael Correa’s Educational Vision Bryce Couch This week, Ecuador’s Minister of Higher Education, Science, Technology, and Innovation, René Ramírez, introduced a national scholarship program emphasizing the newfound goal of the Department of Education: politicization. Through this program, the government hopes to incite political participation that can spur social and economic growth.

According to El Universo, Ramírez urged the students to look beyond rote memorization to actively “promote a national consciousness.” In his speech, Ramírez begged students—“the great historical actors”—to bring prosperity to the country.

Although many praise the initiative, the program’s feasibility is still questionable. Even more concerning are questions of the program’s political motivations. Frequently seen as a

means of strengthening party support in light of 2017’s elections, skeptics have viewed the program as a means of indoctrination.

Moreover, the basis by which the scholarships are distributed has raised questions due to qualification requirements. These include grade specifications as well as minimum scores on the Test of English as a Foreign Language. Critics have questioned how meritorious such requirements can possibly be when the scholarship goals are so political in nature.

Regardless, many laud the goals of President Rafael Correa. According to Correa, higher education is vital to Ecuador’s future, including studying abroad. Such programs tend to be conditioned to a set amount of time working for the government after college, in order to prevent brain drain.

Sosa remarked that such security was reminiscent of former President Calderon’s intervention in the city.

Unlike last time, though, citizens now approached the forces without fear, comfortably asking the verdes for directions as they paraded the streets.

Of course, some aspects of the visit also drew criticism, such as the Pope’s agenda not including the families of the hundreds of disappeared women believed to be kidnapped and killed in acts of femicide.

Sosa reported that, in protest, the

families painted pink crosses on poles in the Pope’s path. Authorities quickly removed the paintings.

Nonetheless, when the Pope finally arrived in the city, a quarter of the city stood in praise, either along his path or in wait of the papal mass, to await the pontiff ’s blessing.

“The night may seem long and very dark,” Pope Francis added during his closing speech, “but in these days I was able to confirm that within this people, many lights exist and announce our hope.”

COURTESY OF EDWIN LOPEZ

EDITOR’S NOTE:

Residents of Ciudad Juarez Welcome the Pope

WHAT IS WORTH $18 BILLION BESIDES THE RIO 2016 OLYMPICS BUDGET?

F E B. 23, 2016 | 7

Corruption Complicates Lula’s Return Colton Wade While for many members of Brazil’s Workers Party (PT) former president Lula da Silva is a clear choice for reelection in 2018, new allegations of corruption may hurt his chances and risk the future of the party he represents. He is the most senior official in a long line of Brazilian politicians whom Operation Lava Jato, the government probe conducting investigations into the country’s massive corruption scandal, has suspected of illegal activities.

Allegations tie Mr. Silva to a lavish beachside apartment in the São Paulo resort town of Guarujá According to a report by Reuters, recent allegations tie Mr. da Silva to a lavish beachside apartment in the São Paulo resort town of Guarujá, part of a complex that federal prosecutors are investigating for money laundering and bribery to PT officials. Mr. da Silva has admitted to frequenting the

apartment with his wife, but he denies ownership; the investigation against him, however, claims differently. The divisive issue sparked riots in São Paulo on Wednesday after news broke

Over the last two years, his disapproval rating has jumped from 17% to 47% that a planned questioning of Mr. da Silva had been suspended, with both his critics and supporters launching rocks and water bottles before succumbing to tear gas.

President da Silva—or Lula, as most call him—was elected in 2002 and served two terms in Brazil’s highest office until ceding power to his hand-picked successor, Dilma Rousseff, in 2011. The fast-paced economic growth Brazil saw under his presidency allowed him to leave office with the highest approval rating of any Brazilian president since the fall of military rule—83% according to a poll conducted by A Folha de São Paulo. President Obama echoed the sentiments of many when he greeted Mr. da Silva at the G20 Summit in

2009, calling him “the most popular politician in the world.”

This reputation, however, may not be enough to last him until 2018. While a 1997 constitutional amendment allows a president to run for a third term so long as it does not directly follow his first two, only 22% of Brazilians asked in a recent Datafolha poll plan to vote for him in 2018. Over the last two years, his disapproval rating has jumped from 17% to 47%, and the percentage of Brazilians who think of him as their best president has fallen from 57% to 39%.

Both his fall from favor and Rousseff ’s own plummeting approval rating - she hit a record low of 8% last August - have raised questions about the future of the Workers Party, with some seeing da Silva’s proposed candidacy as a last-ditch effort to stave off extinction. If President da Silva is innocent as he claims, he has nearly three years to convince the Brazilian people that he is still the man for the job. If investigative findings prove otherwise, however, the party that has guided Brazil through the twenty-first century could find itself lacking both a leader and a good reputation.

Yoani Sanchez Visits Georgetown Valeria Balza Last Wednesday, renowned Cuban blogger and journalist Yoani Sánchez visited Georgetown to discuss the transformation of daily life in Cuba and how she strives to transmit information through clandestine and alternative information structures.

The event, co-hosted by Georgetown University’s Latin American Student Association, the Center for Latin American Studies, and the Master of Science in Foreign Service program, began with Sánchez holding up a USB flash drive and asking, “What is this?”

“This [flash drive] is liberty,” she remarked in Spanish. “This has changed my country much more than the politicians or the growing relationship between Cuba and the United States.”

As technology arrives, she explained, Cuba has transformed from a closed society in which the state held an almost absolute monopoly over information to a society whose citizens have many more opportunities to know what is happening inside and outside Havana.

Sánchez, creator of the blog Generation Y, calls her website ‘an exercise in cowardice’ that allows her to say what is forbidden in public.

Despite censorship in Cuba, she publishes by e-mailing and texting her posts to people outside the country who then post them online.

Continuing her speech, Yoani

“Liberty neeeds political will. It needs the government to decriminalize discrepancies.” stressed how the presence of technology has brought about a ‘rain’ of kilobytes and challenged the authoritative machinery of vigilance and control of the Cuban government.

By secretly transmitting information, she explained, she has “open[ed] a window to the world and into Cuba when the door is closed.”

She also compared Cuba’s closed doors to the presence of an all-seeing government known as Big Brother from George Orwell’s 1984: “Cuba

has Big Brother’s telescreens. Our telescreens are the Committees for the Defense of the Revolution, a vigilance unit established in each block. Our telescreens are our friends, our relatives, our neighbors – anyone who can denounce us. It’s having to apply to jobs and bringing a file proving you’re a good revolutionary.”

Regarding the relationship between Cuba and the United States, Sánchez expressed that it has become more difficult for Cuba’s government to blame its problems on the US. However, she added, the renewal of relations has not made Cuba freer.

“Liberty needs political will.

It needs the government to decriminalize discrepancies. Liberty is that those who think differently are not persecuted,” she asserted.

“I am not satisfied,” she concluded.

“I want the door to be open. I want there to be freedom of the press and for no one to have to go to the black market to acquire information. But right now, I have to work with what I have, so my job is to help make the window stay open while we push the door until it opens. And I do this through journalism.”

Macri’s New Economic Reforms Shake Argentina Brendan Keenan Mauricio Macri, leader of the conservative party and a proponent of free-trade and stronger ties with the United States, was elected as president of Argentina in November 2015. His victory was widely interpreted as a rebuke to the largely protectionist policies of outgoing president Christina Fernandez de Kirchner.

During her second term in office, Kirchner imposed currency controls and trade restrictions that reduced productivity and decreased Argentina’s foreign currency reserves while also avoided the negotiation of a debt settlement with Argentina’s foreign creditors. As The Economist notes, it resulted in a ban on accessing international funds for the country. Import and export levels were also harmed when Kirchner’s administration artificially appreciated the Argentine peso relative to the American dollar.

Thousands of new bureaucratic posts meant for supporters and the implementation of subsidies on staple goods boosted her popularity at the expense of an indebted government, according to La Nación. Nevertheless, the fact that voters rejected her chosen successor, Daniel Scioli, in favor of Macri, suggests that the Argentinian people want serious economic reform.

To address Argentina’s poor economic growth, Macri lifted currency controls five days after his inauguration. As a result, the peso dropped to a record low of 14.80 pesos to the dollar as of February 16.

Such a rate could help Argentina’s export industries, so unsurprisingly, the move has drawn support from agricultural unions, which represent the largest share of Argentine exports.

The increase could help lessen the shock of the 0.75% contraction the IMF predicts for the economy in 2016.

Macri has also acted swiftly to address Argentina’s issues with its creditors. A 2012 United States court order impeded Argentina’s debt restructuring plans; however,

in February 2016, the Argentian government announced it had made progress with drafting debt payment plans with some of its creditors. This move could signal that the country is reentering the good graces of the international finance community. Macri began the path of reintroduction when he recently attended the World Economic Forum, becoming Argentina’s first representative there in over a decade.

Macri’s quick pace of reforms has unsettled some. Unions fear that the currency devaluations and rising inflation—last charted by Bloomberg

This move could signal that the country is reentering the good graces of the international finance community at 29.6%—will erode the standard of living, and numerous Kirchner-era subsidies have also been rolled back, which could impact the quality of life, though it will pump money back into the government budget. The layoffs of ten thousand public sector employees have also drawn scrutiny. While this move saves the government millions and increases the transparency of bureaucracy, employment prospects look dim to those whose jobs were previously guaranteed by Kirchner.

It falls to the current government to ensure that the short-term strain will lead to long-term gain.

A slumping commodities market and a weakening Chinese demand suggest that Argentina’s economic doldrums may continue. However, if Macri continues to demonstrate a willingness to make the difficult, but necessary, economic decisions, Argentina could be better placed to ensure a healthy economy than at any point in the past decade.

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MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Iran’s Gas Prepares to Hit Global Pipelines

Guillaume Biganzoli Giulio Regeni, a 28-year old Italian PhD candidate from Cambridge University, was reported missing in Cairo, Egypt, on January 25, the fifth anniversary of the 2011 revolution which toppled Hosni Mubarak.

His body was later found in a ditch in the suburbs of the capital with apparent signs of torture, including cigarette burns, bruises, and several stab wounds. The affair has spurred international outcry and significantly damaged Egypt’s diplomatic relations with Italy, the country’s third most important trading partner.

The Egyptian government has issued contradictory statements in an attempt to explain the incident.

The Giza Investigations Department stated that Regeni’s death was the result of a car accident and refuted signs of torture on his body. Other governmental sources claim that he may have been the victim of a common crime. However, they all seem to agree that security forces had nothing to do

HOW OPEC WORKS TO CONTROL OIL PRICES

with it. The Italian government has demanded that Egypt immediately open an investigation and that Italian authorities be permitted to participate in the investigation.

Yet, political activist Wael Eskandar has noted that the cigarette burns are a classic sign of police torture in Egypt.

Similarly, the Egypt office of the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies argued that the case bore “fingerprints of the Egyptian security apparatus.”

Several eyewitnesses also claim that they saw Regeni being escorted by police officers dressed as civilians.

Moreover, activists revealed that the officer in charge of the investigation has previously been sentenced to one year of imprisonment over charges of “complicity in the abduction, torture, and murder of an Egyptian man.”

According to Egyptian officials, Mr. Regeni had suspicious contacts on his phone related to the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood and the leftist April 6 Movement, both considered enemies of the state. “They figured he was a

RAMY RAOOF

Italian National Found Dead in Egypt

Ava Bader Demonstrators on army truck in Tahrir Square, Cairo.

spy,” one of the officials stated. “After all, who comes to Egypt to study trade unions?”

Regeni’s death may very well be yet another example of the extent of police brutality in Egypt. Since the election of President Abdel Fattah alSisi in June 2014, the country has seen an escalation in forced disappearances, cases of torture, and police violence.

In the three weeks following Regeni’s death, Egyptian lawyers and doctors have participated in protests and sit-ins, the “largest demonstrations in Egypt since the military-backed government banned unauthorized protests more than two years ago,” according to The New York Times.

On February 10, a local newspaper

reported the forced disappearance of 20 Alexandrian youths. They are believed to have been detained by the state and possibly framed by a police officer for burning his car in an effort to “counter a growing youth movement in Alexandria.”

Egypt is not alone in the recent trend of insecurity and lawlessness.

Last week, Bahraini officials arrested four American journalists for covering the country’s clashes and crushed uprisings on the anniversary of Bahrain’s own revolution. Tunisia has been sternly criticized for recent cases of police brutality against drug offenders and homosexuals; Libya has also come under fire for mistreating prisoners.

Ceasefire Agreement Reached in Syria Andrew Schneider The U.S. and Russian governments announced on February 11 that they reached an agreement to begin a ceasefire and provide humanitarian aid to Syrian cities in need of basic supplies. The aid would be followed by a “cessation of hostilities” between Syrian rebel groups and Bashar AlAssad’s government forces.

Tensions remain between Russia and the U.S. The ceasefire is proposed to begin on March 1. Officials have expressed hope that a successful ceasefire, accompanied by humanitarian aid, might lead to further, more compre-

hensive agreements in the future.

The deal comes as Russian-backed government troops have stepped up efforts to control the city of Aleppo.

Over 50,000 Syrians have fled the city in the face of increased violence.

Following the announcement, officials expressed doubts that the deal will be put into place. Russian officials have proclaimed that the deal is more likely to be a failure than to be a success.

Tension remains between Russia and the U.S. The Russian army has continued to launch airstrikes against rebel groups who oppose the Assad government. However, the U.S. maintains that Russian airstrikes have both hit civilian targets and targeted groups who have helped in the fight against the Islamic State.

Total, a French oil and gas company, has agreed to purchase 160,000 barrels per day from Iranian oil producer NIOC. The Franco-Iranian contract was expected to be finalized on February 16 after initial meetings took place last month in Paris. Spain, India, Greece, China, and Italy have also begun making deals with Tehran.

Iranian president Hassan Rouhani wants to move Tehran away from a solely oil-dependent economy and work towards expanding other industries. On January 28, Rouhani met with French President Francois Hollande in Paris to sign a 40 billion euro trade deal. The deal primarily focused on Tehran’s purchase of 118 airbuses, in addition to an agreement with French car company Peugeot to open up a factory in Iran.

Political challenges to economic trade with Western countries still remain.

Iran’s economy has entered a much needed period of growth after the removal of sanctions. However, the re-emergence of Iran into the realm of international trade, specifically in the petroleum market, may have some negative effects. Iran’s decision to raise its production by 500,000 barrels per day is likely to further contribute to tanking oil prices.

Political challenges to economic trade with the West still remain. Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who outranks the president, is adamantly opposed to opening up his country to Western influence. While sanctions have opened many doors, it is evident that Iran will have to deal with its internal political problems before drastic developments can be made.

F E B. 23, 2016 | 9

Yemen: An Evolving Underreported Crisis Over 21 million Yemenis - 80% of Yemen’s population - are in need of aid. This statistic exceeds numbers in Syria, yet stories from Yemen have captured little international attention.

Once a relatively isolated civil conflict, the situation is now popularly named a “proxy war” between Saudi Arabia and Iran. As conflict evolves, clashing interests perpetuate a destructive humanitarian crisis with no peace in sight.

The Houthis, a Zaydi insurgency group in Northern Yemen, have long challenged the central government in pursuit of autonomous territory.

Previously opposed to the leadership of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, the Houthis supported 2011 political protests inspired by Tunisia’s revolutions. These uprisings spurred Saleh to cede power to Southern Yemeni, Deputy President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi. Hadi’s transitional government headed the well-known “National Dialogue Conference,” intended to facilitate a peaceful power transition. This diplomatic effort failed to stabilize Yemen. According to Yemen expert Amat Alsoswa, “those

included in the National Dialogue were hand picked by the President” and thus failed to embrace the full range Yemini interests.

The exclusive nature of the National Dialogue may well have inspired two traditional rivals, Saleh and the Houthis, to construct a strategic alliance against Hadi. As a result, the many divided groups of Southern Yemen suddenly faced a common enemy in the North, and tensions rose.

Nonetheless, at this point full-scale war still seemed avoidable. Dr. Charles Schmitz, a scholar of Yemen sociology at the Middle East Institute, describes Yemenis as problem-solvers. In his words, “pragmatic arch enemies can cut a deal amongst themselves” in the name of peace.

Although the “Arab Spring” revolutions may have initially aggravated latent political tensions, today’s conflict is largely shaped

by Saudi Arabia’s unusually strong military campaign and accusatory rhetoric regarding the Iran-Houthi relationship.

Saudi intervention appears driven by its rivalry with Iran; however, the International Crisis Group (ICG) consistently confirms that Iran plays a minor

role in Yemen. The ICG reports that “the Saudi-led coalition lends direct military, financial and political help to anti-Houthi fighters, while Iran operates on a shoestring budget, giving the Houthis political and moral aid but little military and financial assistance.” It appears that the Saudis are conflating Houthi aggression with Iranian hegemony in the Arab world. This provides little ground for reconciliation in Yemen.

The ICG emphasizes that Saudi Arabia intervened “in response to its perception that…Washington was turning away or even courting Tehran

during nuclear negotiations.” Strain on the long-standing Saudi-U.S. alliance renders it unlikely that the U.S. will promote a candid conversation to address regional tensions. Schmitz underscores the “U.S. interest in maintaining the Saudi-U.S. relationship, post-Iran deal.” This alliance appears to take priority over potential dialogue. While these strategic interests shape the war, Amat Alsoswa reminds us that “Yemenis just want to live as human beings.” Only diplomatic dialogue that brings all regional actors to the table will bring peace to Yemen.

WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

Elizabeth Humphrey

Yemenis take to the streets to protest perceived political abuses.

Algerian Protests Coincide with Palace Coup Preetham Chippada

WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

In 1999, Abdelaziz Bouteflika rose to presidency in Algeria by drawing support from the country’s military.

Since then, he has amended the constitution to allow his presidency to extend beyond two terms and is currently presiding over his fourth.

Recently, however, his health has caused growing concern. Bouteflika has already received emergency treatment for a bleeding stomach ulcer in 2005 and has since then had two

additional strokes.

At 78 years of age, Bouteflika has been invisible from the public eye for over two years. Some Algerians believe that their president may no longer be alive. The president supposedly communicates with his ministers via letter, but many sources doubt that he is still running operations in Algeria.

The National Liberation Front, the party that has controlled the state since 1962, has been ruled by le pouvoir, a secret military and political elite group

Abdelaziz Bouteflika casts his ballot in the May 10th’s 2012 legislative election.

run on a system of consensus.

Experts believe that recent shifts are uncharacteristic of Bouteflika and hint at a palace coup. “We have this feeling that the president has been taken hostage by his direct entourage,” Lakhar Bouregaa, a former comrade of Bouteflika in the struggle for independence, told Al-Watan, an Algerian daily that aligns with the opposition. Some predict that Saïd Bouteflika, the brother of Adbelaziz, is leading the new clique in power while others doubt that Saïd has the support of the army and the public.

This shift in power comes at an unfortunate time for Algeria. The National Liberation Front suppressed riots during the Arab Spring in 2011 and maintained powerful rule over the state. However, recent months have been tumultuous. As a result of the collapse in oil revenues, inflation has soared to 4.8% and youth unemployment is nearly 30%.

Algerians have begun a new wave of protests that police and security forces have responded to with fierce opposition. The town of Oued El Ma began a strike that escalated to an

attack on the local prison on January 19 when the government cancelled its plans to build a solar panel factory which could improve the youth unemployment problem.

In order to appease the population, Bouteflika’s administration has disclosed the draft of a new constitution.

However, analysts remain skeptical. “I don’t believe these constitutional changes will affect the citizens’ daily life. They are above all concerned that hard-won social gains are not jeopardized,” reported Hocine Bellaloufi, author of Democracy in Algeria: Reform or Revolution, to AlMonitor. Bellaloufi holds that the draft constitution is a mere distraction from the government’s domestic price hike.

The draft constitution limits presidency to two terms, overturning Bouteflika’s 2008 amendment to extend his presidency. This may be an indication of an impending transition of power within le pouvoir, and a promising future for Algerian governance; many further steps, however, will have to be taken before the Algerian government returns to anything resembling a democracy.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Nick Simon

S

even months after the nuclear deal between the P5+1 and Iran, Iran is publicly mocking the United States. Following Iran’s capture of ten U.S. Navy sailors last month, Iranian state television released a video on February 10 that shows one of the captured sailors crying. The next day, Iran again derided the U.S. by marching actors dressed as the captured American sailors at a parade celebrating the anniversary of Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Iran’s actions can be understood within the paradigm of a three-way power struggle between Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, moderate President Hassan Rouhani, and the hardline generals of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Rouhani and Khamenei’s interests aligned for the nuclear deal. The negotiations served Rouhani’s aims to increase Iran’s integration into the world, and Khamenei allowed the negotiations to proceed because he understood Iran’s need for relief from economic sanctions.

Now, the interests of the IRGC and Khamenei are aligned against Rouhani. The hardline generals oppose the nuclear deal and adamantly want a nuclear weapon.

Khamenei now wants to stop the deal from causing rapprochement with the U.S., which would undermine the legitimacy of his office. Thus, Iran’s provocations can be interpreted as hardline pushback against the moderates and their deal.

By celebrating the humiliation of American servicemen with the video and parade, Iranian hardliners disparaged Rouhani’s moderates at a crucial juncture.

On February 26, hardline and reformist candidates will clash in national elections. However, the hardline Guardian Council disqualified thousands of moderate candidates from running for Parliament and the Assembly of Experts, which will likely select the next Supreme Leader.

Nevertheless, the elections will mark a crucial moment in postdeal Iran: they may yield either the beginning of a long path to reform or the consolidation of hardline control.

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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Helen Alemayehu Earlier this month the McDonough School of Business (MSB), in conjunction with the Walsh School of Foreign Service’s African Studies Program, hosted Georgetown’s inaugural Africa Business Conference with the theme of Africa Rising: Business in Action. The purpose of the event was to exhibit the growth and impact of the private sector across the continent and to facilitate a discussion on ways to continue the positive business trend.

Business leaders from all over Africa spanning a wide range of industries were in attendance. The conference featured several breakout panels on topics including private equity, music, banking, and technology. Session peakers included a number of top executives from companies such as Ethiopian hydrocarbon firm Southwest Energy, Coca-Cola, the World Bank, Trade Africa, and TRACE Urban.

Notable guests included John Vitalo, CEO of the banking giant Atlas Mara, Ayotade Oyinlola of IHS Towers, the

largest mobile telecom infrastructure provider in Africa, and Ghanaian afrobeats superstar Fuse ODG. The conference sold out of tickets multiple times, even after the conference team made adjustments to accommodate for additional ticket sales. A total of 420 guests registered for the event. Dean of the MSB David A. Thomas opened the conference expressing that, “the point of this conference is to find someone who has an idea that excites you and connect with them.” The message seemed to hit home, as the crowds were filled with enthusiasm and engaged discussion.

Attendees of the event were extremely pleased with the content of the conference; many congratulated the student coordinators for organizing such a successful event.

Georgetown’s inaugural conference marks one of the newest additions to the east coast’s well-established Africa business conference circuit. Harvard University, University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School , and Columbia University have all hosted conferences

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COURTESY OF HELEN AALEMAYEHU

GU Hosts Africa Business Conference

Anirudha Vaddadi

Members of the organizing team - Adeleke Adegbulugbe, Manish Padhiar, Helen Alemayehu, Courtney Maduike - with Fuse ODG (not pictured Amanda Yue, Divine Mutoni, Jon Hyman, Humphrey Wireko, Martha Nwosu, Naa Adjeley Kome-Mensah, Hari Rohan Israni, Uzoamaka Ugochukwo, Amuche Nwokolo, Dan Evans, Kweku Amoako)

for over a decade.

Manish Padhiar, MBA-MSFS candidate and director of the conference, said he and his team weren’t afraid to replicate the successes of Harvard and Wharton; the objective was to bring the conversation of African business to Georgetown. Naa Adjeley Kome-Mensah, a senior in the SFS and content manager for the conference, expressed similar sentiments of initiating an Africa-centered dialogue, saying, “Georgetown places an importance on global leadership but has yet to place a particular focus on Africa.”

By taking on this project, the organizing team wanted to see the uni-

versity lead the discussion of African business in the DMV area. Moreover, the team wanted the university’s administration to be more engaged in African business. Students interested in business on the continent signaled that the MSB should acknowledge the demand for and importance of allowing an Africa focus. Organizers hope that the conference’s success will result in a gradual move toward more Africa related courses and greater recruitment of students from the continent.

One thing is certain: the successful execution of Georgetown’s inaugural Africa Business Conference gives it a promising future on the Hilltop.

Former President of Ivory Coast on Trial Jessica Hickle This month, Laurent Gbagbo of the Ivory Coast became the first former head of state to face trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Gbagbo faces four charges of crimes against humanity, including murder, rape, and persecution during the contested elections of 2010 and 2011. In a close race, Gbagbo’s rival, Alassane Ouattara, became president.

However, disagreement over the results drove the nation into a civil war that resulted in approximately 3,000 deaths.

According to The Telegraph, prosecutors accused Gbagbo of clinging to power “by any means necessary” using the military. Gbagbo pleaded not guilty to all charges.

Gbagbo’s lawyer argued that the former president’s actions were part of an effort to restore democracy in his country. According to US

News, the lawyer levied accusations that prosecutors crafted a “political narrative… intended to justify the use of force against President Gbagbo.”

According to Gbagbo, Ouattara’s forces also committed abuses that the prosecution has ignored.

In 2010 and 2011, Ouattara, a former IMF economist whom Gbagbo’s supporters describe as a “rebel chief,” used help from the French government to bolster his claims to power. France also provided Ouattara’s forces with weapons in their efforts to remove Gbagbo from the presidency after the election.

The case has ignited controversy across Africa, which spilled over to the African Union summit this month. All Africa reported that several heads of state backed a Kenyan proposal to pull out of the ICC. The case is expected to continue for three to four years.

President Obama signed the Electrify Africa Act into law this week, nearly two years after it was first introduced to Congress. The bill, which partners with both public and private actors, intends to bring power to 50 million people on the African continent by 2020. Although the program calls for investments of around $50 billion to electrify the continent, an estimated $835 billion is needed to provide access to all Africans.

The massive gap between supply and demand for electricity in Africa has been one of the biggest hindrances to tapping into the continent’s economic potential. According to McKinsey, 600 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa lack access to electricity. Often, businesses are forced to use inefficient and expensive generators to support their needs, and individuals often rely on toxic coal which is responsible for many diseases.

The bill stipulates that the money be invested in a mix of sources, including renewable energy, across the continent to stabilize a patchy power grid. Currently, the grid includes only seven countries that are able to supply more than half their population with electricity. $31 billion of the $50 billion pledged to the project come from private sector partners, with the remaining $19 billion originating from a variety of public sector institutions such as the World Bank.

The Electrify Africa Act is crucial to growing US-Africa relations, as it expands the budget of Obama’s $7 billion Power Africa program, which he launched three years ago.

Additionally, the law officially makes electricity generation in Africa a fixed part of US governmental policy, rather than simply an act of the Obama administration. As a result, this initiative has higher priority and is longer-term in scope, which incentivizes all future administrations to follow through on its goals.

Protests Rock Ethiopia’s Oromia Region Just seven months ago, U.S. President Barack Obama stood at the National Palace in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and called the Ethiopian government, which claimed to have earned 100% of the vote in the last elections, “democratically elected.”

Four months later, opposition groups claim that an estimated 140 people in Oromia State have been killed by the government.

Conflict sparked early in November after Oromia’s regional government approved the Master Plan – the national government’s development project. Students quickly organized nonviolent demonstrations to protest the Master Plan, which is seen by many as an invasive scheme that threatens the Oromo people and culture.

Although Ethiopia’s Constitution guarantees the right to peaceful demonstration, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn warned that the government would take “merciless legitimate action against any force bent on destabilizing the area.” The protests were met with just that: videos posted online show the Agazi, Ethiopia’s Federal Police, attacking and

shooting at demonstrators. For weeks the violence continued, as houses were burned and reports surfaced claiming the use of sprayed chemicals to poison students. The Agazi’s violent response to peaceful protests has incited some Oromo groups to retaliate against the government.

The Master Plan, a 2014 regional development initiative, is behind these protests. The Master Plan, approved by Oromia’s regional government, sought to expand the capital, Addis Ababa, into the towns of the surrounding Oromia region. Opposition groups estimate the implementation of the plan would cause the eviction of millions of Oromo farmers. For the Oromo people, the plan represents a risk to autonomy and a mechanism for greater marginalization.

The Ethiopian government claims to have abandoned the Master Plan, but the history of violence in the Oromia region suggests that it is far from reaching a peaceful ending, as the Oromo people have historically been marginalized by the state. Oromo children, farmers, and intellectuals have suffered abuse, kidnapping, imprisonment, and even death. Furthermore, Ethiopia’s

ethnic federalism political system has further exacerbated tensions with the government. The Oromo Peoples’ Democratic Organization (OPDO) governs the ethnic-based Oromia regional state. Theoretically, the OPDO serves as a representative of the Oromo people, but the two decades of violence and crime committed in the region have brought its true motives into question.

The ruling party has been in power

SIMON DAVIS/DEPARTMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

Helen Alemayehu

for 25 years and has emphasized economic-focused development.

As the capital’s population steadily increases, a genuine abandonment of the expansion plan seems unlikely and a change to the Master Plan seems equally improbable. Thus, even amidst the plan’s claimed cancellation, protests and government crackdowns continue and further conflict in the region seems inevitable.

Growth of the capital Addis Ababa has increased demand for land in the countryside.

IS and al-Qaeda Compete for Influence in Sahel Last month, 30 people from at least 18 countries were killed and hundreds of others were taken hostage by alQaeda gunmen in a luxury hotel in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. The assailants stormed the hotel after detonating a bomb outside and remained there until government forces regained control the next morning.

While the siege in Ouagadougou was the first major attack in Burkina Faso by Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), it continues a year-long trend of more intense and splintered terrorist activity in a changing West African landscape as certain terrorist groups, notably alQaeda and the Islamic State (formerly known as ISIS), compete for influence.

Previously allied, the Islamic State and al-Qaeda split in 2014, each pursuing separate strategies to bolster recruitment. The fracture occurred when al-Qaeda leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi disowned ISIS, citing its refusal to follow al-Qaeda orders and labeling its tactics too brutal and radical. Since then, ISIS has renamed

itself the Islamic State (IS), which marked the beginning of its selfproclaimed global Islamic caliphate.

IS proceeded to make sweeping territorial gains through Iraq and Syria and quickly conducted and inspired attacks abroad in Indonesia, France, Lebanon and the United States.

The two groups diverge primarily over how operations should be conducted rather than over differences in ideology. In addition, al-Qaeda and IS employ different forms of organizational structure.

The Foreign Policy Research Institute predicts jihadi-on-jihadi violence will ultimately be beneficial for counter-terrorist objectives “as infighting burns up resources, turns off donors and sours foreign fighter recruitment flows.” The failure to unify jihadists would inhibit coordinated attacks against the West stem regional growth of networks.

However, given the spate of terrorist activity abroad and with West Africa serving as a primary theater of conflict, an alternative dynamic has ensued: al-Qaeda and IS networks are competing and growing at the same time.

In the face of competition, both alQaeda and IS have stronger incentives than ever before to conduct large-scale terrorist attacks. Foreign fighters and resources are at stake, and successful strikes attract them.

Currently, IS-organized activity is strongest in North Africa, including Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, as well as in Nigeria, given its 2014 alliance with Boko Haram. Al-Qaeda, on the other hand, is strongest in the northwest of the continent, with active operations in Algeria, Mali, and Burkina Faso.

Both groups grapple for influence in

WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

Andrew Frank

Libya and Niger.

Shortly after IS’s attacks in Paris and Beirut, AQIM conducted a seizure of the Radisson Blu Hotel in Mali, resulting in 21 deaths. In December, Boko Haram, an IS affiliate, conducted suicide bombings in Cameroon. The Ouagadougou attack, with links to AQIM, occured nearly a month later.

However, as IS gains ground in terms of recruits, arms, and territory, al-Qaeda may be forced to engage in even more brutal and frequent displays of violence, with West Africa bearing the brunt of the bloodshed.

The Hotel Splendid in Ouagadougou, site of January’s attacks by AQIM

F E B. 23, 2016 | 11

EDITOR’S NOTE: Jonathan Doernhofer & Anirudha Vaddadi

L

ast year was a critical juncture for developments on the African continent. Elections and constitutional changes tested the democratic institutions of several countries, and many commodity exporters began to feel the pinch of a slowing Chinese economy and the resulting decrease in demand for African exports.

These trends will continue to dominate headlines across the continent this year. The results of key presidential elections in Ghana, Zambia, and Niger could alter Africa’s political trajectory. In Ghana, incumbent president John Mahama will try to stave off an attempt by the opposition New Patriotic Party to retake the presidency for the first time since 2009, as well as a smaller challenge from Samia Nkrumah, the daughter of the country’s first president, Kwame Nkrumah. In Zambia, Edgar Lungu will vie to retain power after becoming president only a year ago in a special election following the death of his predecessor, Michael Sata. If that wasn’t enough, voters in Niger, a country seen as a vital battleground against Islamist extremism on the continent, took to the polls this past weekend to determine whether the incumbent president Mahamadou Issoufou would remain leader of Niger over a crowded field of challengers.

The slump in Africa’s commodity supercycle also shows no signs of rebounding. Weaker Chinese demand for various minerals and the global downturn in oil prices have had massive effects on the economies of many African states. This has resulted in plummeting currencies in Zambia, Angola, South Africa, and Nigeria, most notably. With less demand for their exports, these countries face more expensive imports due to their relatively weak currencies, sparking concerns about economic difficulties that have not been seen on the continent since the collapses of the 1970s and 1980s.

Local governments will have to make tough decisions this year to restructure their economies and diversify growth, while also staving off corruption.

No matter which direction these trends take, 2016 promises to be a critical year across the African continent.

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SOUTH & SOUTHEAST ASIA Navneet Vishwanathan The Farmers Distress Management Task Force in Maharashtra, India, reported earlier this month that 89 farmers had committed suicide in January 2016 alone. According to The Indian Express, this comes after an estimated 1000 suicides in 2015, with officials citing the inefficiencies and lack of morale behind government schemes as the driving forces behind the farmers’ decisions.

While India has seen significant growth in its infrastructure and its economy almost two years into Narendra Modi’s term as Prime Minister, these developments do not deny negligence on the government’s part on the rural front.

Under Modi’s watch, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has positioned itself as a modernizing force in India. Through a series of initiatives, the administration has created programs to clean the streets, extend banking networks, encourage foreign investment, and stimulate

domestic manufacturing production.

However, just outside of Ahmedabad and other rapidly growing urban centers, The Hindu reports that growth and development have occurred alongside massive crop failures and insurmountable debt for many farmers in India’s heartland.

While both state and central governments have launched benefits schemes to provide food security, crop insurance and loan access, it would appear that more needs to be done as high suicide rates persist. “It is clear that the government officials, especially at the local levels, have failed to create confidence among the farmers regarding several government schemes intended to benefit them,” stated Kishore Tiwari, head of the Farmers Distress Management Task Force in Maharashtra.

The BJP’s turn toward the globalized financial market and a neoliberal growth model may have caused it to turn a blind eye to the largely agrarian population in the countryside. This, in

SSEA REGIONAL & NATIONAL RANKINGS ON

HAPPINESS REGION

COUNTRY

REGIONAL RANKING

NATIONAL RANKING*

BHUTAN PAKISTAN INDIA

1 2 3

79 81 117

SINGAPORE THAILAND MALAYSIA

1 2 3

24 34 61

SOUTH ASIA

SOUTHEAST ASIA

*Rankings out of 158 countries Source: 2012-2014 National Ranking of Happiness (according to World Happiness Report)

WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

Farmer Suicides Show BJP’s Rural Failures

A rural dairy farmer in Punjab, India affected by changing climate.

turn, might be the cause of the scores of farmer suicides that have occurred.

Tiwari, however, acknowledged that government schemes had just been launched a few months before and recognized that “it will take some time to overcome the problem”.

Ironically, these same farmers who have been crippled by BJP policy helped elect the party in power in 2014. Preaching Hindutva and strong communal rhetoric, the BJP was able

to draw on the religious identities of these traditional farming communities to win the vote from Congress, Reuters reported. The current situation reflects inherent tensions in the BJP’s dual tenets of agricultural communalism and development, as the party makes tradeoffs and sacrifices in policy execution.

Furthermore, the official numbers of farmer suicides are also heavily disputed. According to The Times

of India, the Prime Minister’s Office claimed in response to a right-toinformation query earlier this month that only one farmer took his own life between 2003 and 2012 due to crop failure in Gujarat. At the state level, however, the Gujarati Minister for Agriculture has claimed that over 600 Gujarati farmers committed suicide in a two year span between 2013 and 2014. Clearly, there is no consensus on the severity of the farmer suicide problem in India.

With these numbers in mind, it is important to note that the BJP does have an incentive to withhold information and figures. With a slowdown in the Indian economy predicted by the Japanese financial services firm Nomura, the BJP has good reason to downplay policy failures and highlight its past successes.

For now, the BJP has chosen to stick to its guns. As The Hindu reports, the party recently announced the Kisan Jagrah Saptah scheme, a national-level crop insurance plan which has been described as “historic”. The program will be rolled out in April after a twoweek national campaign to spread awareness. Whether this new scheme succeeds or follows the path of its predecessors remains to be seen.

Transgender Victory in Nepal Jessica Li Last September, the Nepalese government decided to recognize a third gender, “O”, on all passports, an unprecedented move for the nation.

The new policy allows transgender people to identify their gender on official documentation as “Other.” The Human Rights Campaign, one of the largest LGBT civil rights advocacy groups in the United States, called this move: “a historic first for a nation in Asia.”

Recently, The Guardian reported that Bhumika Shrestha became the first person to ever travel with these newly marked documents.

Shrestha has been an avid activist for transgender rights in Nepal since her transition, inspired by the bullying and discrimination she faced as a child.“We have travel documents and identity cards now, but it is not enough,” she states, “We need equal opportunities in education

and employment, and access to healthcare.”

Shrestha represents a large minority group in Nepal known as hijras. The umbrella term encompasses eunuchs, intersex or transgender people. According to NPR, gender identity for hijras is very flexible and they often consider themselves neither male or female.

Their existence dates back to almost 4,000 years ago, and they have featured prominently in Hinduism as a symbol of luck and fertility.

However, despite such longstanding cultural and religious significance, hijras continue to be ostracized from society today.

In many South Asian nations, hijras often live on the margins of society and are forced to live in poverty in communes due to transphobic violence, harassment and discrimination. Religion New Services reports that in India, where hijras play an important role in Hindu

rituals and ceremonies, widespread discrimination still exists.

The lack of acceptance has in turn led to widespread health problems; a 2012 United Nations Development Programme report discovered that in certain areas of Asia, 49% of transgender people were living with HIV. While there is still much to be done, Nepal has taken the first step to advancing transgender rights. In other parts of South Asia, there have also been positive developments.

In 2009 and 2014 respectively, the governments of India and Pakistan passed laws officially recognizing a “third gender.” Deccan Chronicle also reported earlier this month that transgenders in India are beginning to run for local office. Looking ahead, the transgender movement appears to be gaining momentum but entrenched stigmas and attitudes will remain significant obstacles.

F E B. 23, 2016 | 13

Malaysia: 1MDB Scandal Continues Singaporean authorities recently seized a number of bank accounts linked to Malaysia’s state investment fund, 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB), as part of an ongoing international investigation into alleged corruption that has ensnared Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak and his government. A global investigation has been launched after an unusual payment of $681 million from companies linked to 1MDB was channeled into the private accounts of Mr. Razak, who is also the founder and current chairman of 1MDB. However, Aljazeera reported last month that the country’s Attorney General concluded that the money constituted a donation from the royal family in Saudi Arabia and has mostly been returned. Nonetheless, according to CNBC, this finding has not prevented investigations by U.S. and Swiss authorities.

In the midst of this scandal, Mr. Najib’s administration has undertaken a widespread crackdown on dissidents and has dismissed politicians in critical posts. The jailing of opposition leader, Anwar Ibrahim, described by the Human Rights Watch as “political-

ly motivated”, has presented the most controversy.

Malaysia is certainly no stranger to corruption within its government.

Ranked 54 out of 168 countries on the Corruption Perceptions Index, it has a corruption score of 50 in 2015. The index ranks countries on a scale between zero (highly corrupt) and 100 (very clean).

In accordance with the changing societal perception towards corruption, Razak’s government has lost the approval of a majority of Malay voters for the first time since his election, according to a poll conducted by the Merdeka Centre. Only 31 percent of Malaysian voters are satisfied with the current government-- the first time the rating has fallen below 50 percent since February 2012.

In August last year, over 50,000 protesters gathered at five designated areas in the Malaysian capital as part of a two-day rally organised by the activist group Bersih. One of the largest in Malaysia’s history, the protest called for Razak to step down, as well as for reforms to increase government accountability. The protest’s effectiveness as a vehicle for political change is still in question given the lack of a credible

opposition figure backing it.

Moreover, a study done by Oxford Economics predicts that Malaysia’s economic growth will slow to 4.2 percent in 2016 from 4.7 percent in 2015.

This would be the slowest growth rate since 2009 at the peak of the Global Financial Crisis, when Malaysia’s economy was in recession. In particular, eroding investor confidence in the country’s state-run enterprises is expected to contribute to this drop in growth.

With independent investigations brought forth by foreign agencies,

Malaysia is being thrown into the spotlight. However, what these developments mean for the political climate is hard to say. The ruling party–which has held power since Malaysia’s independence in 1957–lost the popular vote in the last elections, but still obtained a majority of seats in parliament. If the ousting of Najib’s adminstration or the election of a new party is to occur, the change will have to come from not just the public, but also from within the political machinery.

WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

Phalguni Vetrichelvan

Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak addressing a crowd.

Elections in the Philippines: Family First Theresa Romualdez

WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

Formal campaigning began in the Philippines for the May 9 general elections two weeks ago. Since then, tensions surrounding the upcoming elections have heightened, especially as rumors of current President Benigno Aquino III’s “secret bet” regarding his endorsement of presidential

candidates surfaced on February 18, the Philippine Daily Inquirer reported.

According to the Rappler, information surfaced in July 2015 that Aquino would endorse the Liberal Party and its candidate Manuel Roxas II in the upcoming presidential elections.

Recently, however, suspicions arose that Aquino might instead endorse independent candidate Grace Poe after

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is greeted by President Aquino of the Philippines.

her appearance at Aquino’s birthday dinner.

It remains to be seen whether presidential endorsements are effective, for they seem to have had little to no effect in the past.

Nevertheless, in view of the Aquino’s administration’s unprecedentedly high ratings, Channel NewsAsia reported that many consider Aquino’s endorsement of Roxas to be a “game changer.”

Elections in the Philippines have been notoriously characterized by personality politics and familial ties.

Roxas II, for instance, is the son of former President Manuel Roxas, who co-founded the Liberal Party in 1945. Aquino himself is the son of former president Corazon Aquino (1986-92) and Senator Benigno Aquino. This concentration of power within close-knit family networks in the government has perpetuated corruption.

Interaksyon reported that in the lead-up to the current campaign, alliances between former presidents and current candidates have been formed. These include the “Aquino-

Roxas tandem” when Roxas ran for Vice President in 2010 and “Estradamasa,” referring to former President Estrada’s support for Senator Grace Poe when she ran for the Senate in 2013.

When Roxas II campaigned for Vice President in 2010 as part of current president Aquino’s campaign, he obtained 11.2 million votes. He lost to current Vice President Binay’s 12 million votes, whose campaign was carried by the “Estrada-Binay tandem.”

In a similar manner, Estrada’s support for Poe during her candidacy for the Senate brought her 20.3 million votes, postulated to have come from votes obtained by Aquino (12.3 million) and Estrada (7.7 million), bolstered by the backing of the Liberal Party.

So far, there is no definitive evidence that endorsements are a defining factor in Philippine elections.

Poe’s current popularity is clear; she has consistently held a commanding lead in surveys and polls. However, with support from President Aquino and the Liberal Party, Roxas II’s eventual victory this May may “not be surprising after all.”

EDITOR’S NOTE: Bohesa Won

I

n recent months, South Asia and Southeast Asia have garnered international attention through a series of developments, including Myanmar’s general election, the conclusion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s diplomatic blitz in the US, the UK, and China. The year ahead will too be one to watch, as the Philippines gears up for the upcoming presidential elections and China commences efforts to “jump start” its Maritime Silk Road.

For us in the SSEA secion, one particular development stands out: the U.S.’ growing involvement in Southeast Asia and the wider Pacific. While the recent inaugural U.S.-ASEAN Summit hosted by President Obama looks to be more of a symbolic gesture, the fact itself that it happened is a clear sign of increased American commitment towards the region.

In the face of growing Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea, ASEAN has yet to form a unified stance on the territorial disputes. On its part, the US has attempted to reassure its ASEAN partners of its commitment to the freedom of navigation, with the deployment of warships and focus on building naval capabilities of maritime states in the region.

On the economic front, the recent conclusion of the TPP holds great promise, as the US becomes Vietnam’s largest trading partner. Furthermore, the recent unveiling of the new “U.S.-ASEAN Connect” initiative may succeed in attracting non-TPP members in the region to bring the US and ASEAN closer economically.

These developments, alongside U.S. endeavors to combat radicalization and the influence of ISIS in the region—including the upcoming launch of a countermessaging center in Malaysia— signal deepening US engagement in the years to come. More importantly, while some see the region as an arena for a neo-Cold-War struggle between the US and China, we see it as an opportunity for cooperation, one in which ASEAN will play an important intermediary role.

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WESTERN EUROPE Brandon Greenblatt & Mary Zuccarello

e

T

he International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) condemned Europe’s automobile industry last week for its failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from diesel cars. The ICCT rebuked the European Union as well, denouncing its timid regulations of automakers despite revelations last September that Volkswagen falsified emissions reports and unduly contributed to greenhouse gas emissions.

NGO backlash intensified last Wednesday after the European Parliament (EP) ruled that diesel cars will be permitted to break long-standing EU emissions limits.

Prior to Wednesday’s ruling, nitrogen oxide emissions from diesel cars had been capped at 80 mg/km, EU Observer reported.

Now, cars can emit up to 168 mg/ km of nitrogen oxide until 2020.

Members of the EP have defended their decision, noting that emissions measurements have become more accurate since Volkswagen’s “Dieselgate” scandal.

In past years, automobiles emitted four times more than the legal limit. In this respect, a doubling of emissions limits actually represents a 50% reduction in nitrogen oxide emissions compared to the status quo.

The EP’s negligence in regulating the automobile industry is shocking. Regardless of the fact that Volkswagen falsified emissions reports, automakers must be held to the limit of 80 mg/ km. For manufacturers which had abided by the limit but can now double emissions, the EP has bowed to the automobile lobby and opened Pandora’s Box to a whole new climate disaster.

The EU has long been an icon of sustainable development. Led by countries such as Denmark, Sweden, and Germany, the EU had embarked on a remarkable transition to renewable energy and environmental awareness. The EP’s ruling will not reverse such progress entirely, but it will restrict the EU’s capacity to lead the world in sustainable development.

Europe: Democratize or Dissipate Tomas Alvarez Belon Amid a series of political and economic crises, many Europeans have begun to doubt the efficacy of the European Union. Within the last few weeks, a movement known as Democracy in Europe 2025 (DiEM) has spread throughout Europe, promising to change the continent’s political landscape.

Yanis Varoufakis, the former Finance Minister of Greece, announced the birth of DiEM last December.

Its mission, according to the group’s manifesto, is “one very simple, but radical solution: to democratize Europe.” This intellectual crusade seeks to replace the EU’s current state of “technocratic feudalism,” as Varoufakis has coined it, with transparent, democratic institutions.

The DiEM believes that, if reformed, the EU could experience a democratic resurgence by 2025.

DiEM’s creation arrives at a time of great need for European institutions.

The Eurobarometer - an annual public opinion poll of EU member states reported last year that confidence in the EU has never been lower. During a

debate in November 2015, Varoufakis announced his intention to mitigate this problem, noting that restoring citizens’ trust might not be a matter of complex policy solutions. Instead, it could be as simple as opening meetings of the European Council to the public.

According to DiEM supporters, ongoing negotiations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the United States and the EU illustrate the extent to which technocratic feudalism is prevalent in EU. Not only have talks been carried out in secret, but, as The Independent also reported, the agreement’s text has only recently been released for politicians and scholars to review in special reading rooms. While the TTIP’s effects will significantly impact a large portion of the EU’s 750 million inhabitants, there has been a notorious lack of democratic rigor in its entire drafting.

Founded by 40 intellectuals, activists, and politicians, DiEM has already garnered the attention of thousands across Europe by mobilizing both national left-wing elites and university students. DiEM leaders have noted that, as with the

Border Regulations Threaten Schengen Gemma Corsi Austria’s Interior Minister Johanna Mikl-Leitner has announced new border regulations that will limit the number of refugees permitted to travel through the country.

As of February 19, Austria will accept only 80 asylum applications per day, according to EU Observer. The number of asylum seekers permitted to travel through Austria en route to other countries has been capped at 3,200. These restrictions follow last month’s announcement that, over the next four years, Austria’s refugee population will not exceed 1.5% of its total population.

Austria has also expressed support for the “Visegrad Four,” The Local Europe notes. This group, which calls for tighter border controls inside the EU’s passport-free Schengen Zone, is composed of Hungary, Poland,

Slovakia and the Czech Republic.

The Schengen Zone was established in 1985 to facilitate travel between 26 European countries without border controls, but increased immigration has pressured several EU members to re-establish their borders.

Many have criticized Austria’s border restrictions, predicting that they will infringe on the ease of trade currently enjoyed in the Schengen Zone. France Strategie, a think tank, estimated that border regulations, which undermine the Schengen Zone, will cost the EU more than €110 billion over the next ten years.

European officials are not optimistic about the refugee crisis either. Kris Pollet, Senior Policy Officer at the European Council on Refugees and Exiles, expressed this sentiment in a recent interview with the Chicago Tribune, noting, “It’s a dangerous situation. Anything can happen.”

TTIP’s negotiations, the undemocratic nature of the EU means that unelected technocrats prescribe policy suggestions but are accountable to no one.

Despite minimal overt opposition to DiEM thus far, both supporters and detractors have questioned Varoufakis’ role as DiEM’s spokesperson. His tenure as Finance Minister earned him a reputation of arrogance throughout Europe’s mainstream media, largely due to his aggressive attitude towards the so called “men in black suits” of the Troika - a financial committee

composed of the IMF, European Commission, and European Central Bank - that oversaw much of Greece’s contentious bailout process. Within Greece, however, Varoufakis enjoyed some of the highest popularity ratings in the country, according to Newsweek.

As DiEM spearheads the revolution to democratize the EU, it remains unclear whether Varoufakis’ leadership will suffice to do what he, as Finance Minister, could not: lay down the rules of the game. The EU must democratize or risk losing the last scraps of legitimacy that it has.

FLICKR | MARC LOZANO

EDITOR’S NOTE:

Yanis Varoufakis is the spokesman for DiEM.

AMOUNT OF UEFA CHAMPIONS WON,

BY COUNTRY

F E B. 23, 2016 | 15

State of Spain’s Government Uncertain In Times of War, Spain’s minority Socialist Coalition has until March 3 to propose a viable candidate for Prime Minister, the Spanish government announced on February 15. Spain’s government has been in flux since December’s parliamentary elections, during which the Popular Party (PP) won a plurality of 123 seats but failed to secure a majority in the lower house. The Socialist Party (PSOE) was second, winning 90 of the 350 available seats.

Mariano Rajoy, Spain’s current Prime Minister and the Popular Party’s leader, appeared to have assumed control of Spain’s government following December’s elections. However, Rajoy rebuffed a request from King Felipe VI that Rajoy form a new coalition goverment on account of the Popular Party’s failure to win a majority of seats in the election. Prior to King Felipe VI’s request, no other parties had expressed any interest in backing Rajoy, which made it unlikely that he would win the support of Spain’s parliament and people.

In a statement released after several weeks of talks with other party

leaders, King Felipe VI reaffirmed his commitment to finding a solution.

Now, according to EU Observer, the King has called on Pedro Sanchez, the head of the Socialist Party, to spearhead talks with Spain’s other political parties, excluding the Popular Party.

“Spain’s government has been in flux since December’s parliamentary elections.”

Sanchez hopes to become Spain’s seventh Prime Minister before King Felipe’s March 3 deadline, according to The Guardian. Since his party won 90 seats, Sanchez will need the endorsement of multiple other parties to attain the 176 seats necessary for a majority. If the Podemos Party, the United Left and the Prime Ministers of Spain’s Catalan and Basque provinces endorse Sanchez, he could bridge this gap and gain a majority.

Pablo Iglesias currently leads the Podemos Party (English for “We Can Party”), an anti-austerity party. In an

interview with El Pais on February 6, Iglesias expressed his wish that “the Socialists, Podemos and the smaller United Left build a government of change.” Iglesias added, “There is no more time for hesitation. Either you’re for change or for stagnation and impasse.” However, just a few days earlier, Iglesias had actually refused to meet with Sanchez unless he permitted exclusive talks between the Podemos and Socialist parties.

Since democracy was only recently restored in Spain in 1978, many critics view this tumultuous path towards governance as a consequence of Spain’s relatively limited experience with the democratic process.

Structural instability in the government notwithstanding, King Felipe’s deadline is rapidly approaching. Spanish law mandates that if no party can form a new government within two months of elections, new ones must be held.

Therefore, should Sanchez fail to acquire the necessary support from Parliament and other parties, Spain will undergo new elections on June 26, at which point the nation will have been without a leader or formal government for almost 200 days.

Merkel Alone in Refugee Crisis Ann-Kathrin Merz In his role as a United Nations Messenger for Peace, George Clooney met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on February 12 to express his support for the Chancellor’s refugee policy. Although Clooney’s official backing benefits Merkel, many of her critics have noted that the fact that she met with an actor in the first place demonstrates just how precarious her political position has become. As Die Zeit explains, one of the central pillars of Merkel’s refugee policy—the demand that all European nations accept a certain quota of refugees— has left Germany isolated in the face of growing opposition from European Union member states.

Merkel’s unwavering demand for a European solution to the refugee crisis has come at a considerable cost.

Germany now stands alone against other European nations, which will not acquiesce to the Chancellor’s calls for a quota system. While British diplomats argue that charity is not a viable solution, France’s Prime Minister, Manuel Valls, claims that Europe simply cannot accept

any more refugees, reports the Süddeutsche Zeitung.

Hans Kundnani, a Senior Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund, points out that even Central European countries which usually support Germany due to economic interests chose to oppose the Chancellor’s calls for refugee quotas. According to Kundnani, their opposition suggests that Germany “lacks either the legitimacy or the capacity to get other Europeans to accept its lead.”

As political opposition drives a wedge between Germany and the other members of the European Union, many have questioned why the Chancellor assumed such a firm stance in the first place. One argument is that she recognized the German people’s need for her guidance.

Hans Kundnani explains that Merkel’s approach to the refugee crisis, like her approach to many other issues, is to “wait until she can perceive a shift in public opinion, and only then act decisively.” Indeed, for a long time Merkel delayed taking a bold stance on the refugee crisis. According to Der Spiegel,

the Chancellor finally took a clear position in August 2015, when violent xenophobic riots in Heidenau sparked a media firestorm that criticized Merkel for doing too little to support refugees. As she condemned these hate crimes in the midst of growing tensions, the need to find a solution to the refugee crisis became ever more pressing.

To oppose Merkel’s persistent demands to accept more refugees, European nations have had to unite against her. However, Merkel maintains her principled stance.

An article in Die Zeit suggests that Merkel would resign as Chancellor rather than agree to close Germany’s borders.

This threat represents a strategic, albeit risky, political game; Merkel expects that once other European Union member states recognize the consequences of losing her leadership and the inhumanity of closing Europe to refugees, they will finally cooperate with her demands. Whether Chancellor Merkel maintains her hardline policy and whether her fellow European Union leaders acquiesce remains to be seen.

Laws Fall Silent in France Tancrède Fulconis

France’s National Assembly voted on February 16 to extend the state of emergency until May 26 of this year, Le Monde reported.

The state of emergency was first imposed on November 13 after the self-styled Islamic State perpetrated terrorist attacks in the nation’s capital. Parliamentary votes were overwhelmingly in favor of extending the state of emergency, the results of which have been mixed.

The state of emergency broadens the powers of the police and the Interior Ministry, which can now actively censor online content, forbid public demonstration, and conduct search and seizure operations without substantial proof. Le Figaro reported that French security forces have conducted 3,379 administrative searches over the past three months and collected only 42 weapons.

Minister of the Interior Bernard Cazeneuve defended the results of the state of emergency against criticisms of inefficiency. Speaking to the National Assembly on February 16, he stated, “If we only look at the number of court investigations regarding terrorism, the results could seem undermining...[but] these investigations...complement other documents which could appear relevant weeks or months later.”

Amnesty International, however, has criticized the Interior Ministry’s operating practices and, on February 4, called for the termination of the state of emergency. Le Monde reports that John Dalhuisen, President of the

Europe and Asia chapter of Amnesty International, stated, “The powers of the executive have been extended in a relatively uncontrollable way and caused a series of human rights violations.”

Six National Assembly representatives, who originally opposed the state of emergency in November, are now reaffirming their position. A group statement published by Liberation on February 15 criticized the extension, asserting that the vote reflected emotion more than reason, having “made a state of exception more normal while weakening individual rights.”

Several prominent judges have also criticized the societal tensions created by the state of emergency, noting that it fosters inequality and threatens minority groups in France.

French Prime Minister Manuel Valls brushed aside these critiques and used the war against the selfstyled Islamic State as his backing.

At a weekly meeting of ministers on February 18, Valls claimed that only the permanent incorporation of an anti-terrorist law into France’s penal code would be sufficient to lift the state of emergency. Critics have denounced this position, alleging that it could lead to a permanent state of emergency in France.

In light of this debate, it appears that France is torn between concerns of security and respect for individual rights. In the eyes of many French citizens, perhaps nothing rings more true than the words of the Roman philosopher Cicero: In times of war, the law falls silent.

WIKIPEDIA | RICHARD YING

Tara Subramaniam

France’s National Assembly extended the state of emergency on February 16.

16 | F EB . 2 3 , 2 0 16

THE ANCHOR EDITORS’ NOTE: Sam Kim & Nicole Carolin

T

he Anchor is The Caravel’s op-ed section, where all regions cross paths. Instead of zooming in on a particular continent, The Anchor looks for trends that affect groups ranging from farming communities in Vietnam to corporate executives in London and Brussels.

At the same time, we have begun to follow the political happenings in D.C., assigning reporters to cover not only significant events, but also the opinions that Georgetown professors have about them. A combination of poignant analysis and engagement of the D.C. community has made The Anchor a truly inclusive and unique section.

Gabriel Gorre and Christina Johnson are the section’s newest writers. Gabriel’s article on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) introduces the international community’s perception of the agreement three weeks after its finalization. It weighs in on both the general optimism towards the TPP, the agreement’s benefits, and its potential adverse effects, as pointed out by opposing research institutes and economists. Christina’s piece describes the recent swearing-in of the new U.S. Ambassador to Panama, Georgetown University alumnus John Feeley.

Both articles represent the section’s commitment to producing content that reflects the writer’s personal views, as well as the statements made by those the section has been fortunate enough to interview.

Nicole Carolin, The Anchor’s associate editor, is a junior majoring in International Politics with a Concentration in International Security. Working with her has been a rewarding experience for the rest of the section, and we have gained new perspectives both through the discussions with our writers and through their articles. It is only reasonable that we desire the same experience for our readers. We value your opinions, and, with the talents of a full-fledged crew, hope that in time, we will be Georgetown’s Talk of the Town section.

Boon or Bust?

TPP Explained, from p.1 have a mixed view of the agreement.

But what about non-Americans?

A poll released last year,before the deal’s final text was revealed, by the Pew Research Organization indicates that the citizens of most of the other member states of the TPP have a more positive view of the agreement. Most notably, citizens of developing nations are far more supportive of the deal.

In Vietnam, for instance, support stood at 89% as compared to 49% in the U.S. However, in Australia, support reached only 52% despite a promotional effort by the Australian government.

Ultimately, in every country surveyed, support for the TPP outweighed opposition. Is this optimism warranted?

The answers varies heavily depending on perspectives.

Researchers at Tufts University released a paper earlier this year which concluded that the TPP would have an overall negative impact on the world economy, even for those countries not involved in the agreement. The models used in the paper, which the authors describe as “more realistic”, predict that every member nation would experience job losses and that GDP growth would be negligible or negative.

The deal would also be detrimental for those left out of the TPP. Job losses could number in the millions and GDP growth would average about -.5% for developed and developing countries.

These researchers are not alone in their assessment. Paul Krugman, a liberal economist, argues that the TPP as a whole will increase corporate control over intellectual property and do little to remove trade barriers, since most world tariffs have already been eliminated.

Thus, there would be little to gain and possibly a lot to lose from the agreement. Even reports with positive views of the TPP conclude that in developed countries, the deal would not create major growth; Australia, for instance, would only see a .7% annual boost by the year 2030.

These conclusions, however, have been called into question. One pair of researchers from the Peterson Institute for International Economics concluded that annual world income

would actually increase by $492 billion. Granted, this increase will probably be distributed unevenly across various countries, with developed countries seeing the bulk of the added income.

In addition, TPP member states are all expected to see economic growth and increased exports. Peter Lawrence of the Peterson Institute has defended the Institute’s researchers’ conclusions. He noted that the Tufts study was heavily limited in its ability to make predictions about a number of economic factors. He also accused it of being heavily biased due to its authors’ assumptions, who excluded positive effects, such as increased exports and economic specialization.

Krugman’s conclusions were also directly contested by columnists from the Center for Economic and Policy Research. They argue that Krugman fails to consider large tariffs that still exist, such as a 39% Japanese tariff on imported beef. More importantly, they note that he fails to consider “nontariff barriers”, regulatory hurdles that impede free trade. These barriers are equivalent to huge taxes on imported goods, with the highest (in Mexico) reaching the equivalent of a 134% tariff. The TPP includes measures to reduce these barriers, which the columnists argue would lead to greater economic growth.

Finally, a World Bank report has also analyzed the possible effects of the TPP on the economies of member and non-member states. It concluded that while benefits to developed nations may be small, developing nations could see large gains.

Malaysia, for example, is projected to enjoy a 10% growth in GDP by 2030.

So in the end, do the citizens of member countries have good reasons to be optimistic? It is impossible to be certain unless the agreement is approved by each member nation. However, the predictions of economists and researchers provide evidence in favor of these positive expectations. Although developed nations may not see the major gains advertised by their governments, they will still benefit economically from the TPP. Developing nations, meanwhile, could stand to gain massive boosts in economic growth and access to world markets. Thus, despite the claims of its denigrators, the TPP may, in fact, be good for the world as a whole.

Rainier Go Publisher Andrea Moneton Editor-in-Chief Nivu Jejurikar Executive Director EXECUTIVE BOARD Simon Rhee Director of Sales Furkan Pehlivanlı Director of Fundraising Sarah Bothner Jee Young Kim Julia Rhodes Luis Joy Tamara Evdokimova Kyle Tillotson Sylvia Cesar Margaret Schaack Nick Simon Ho Yao Nian Bohesa Won Jonathan Dörnhofer Anirudha Vaddadi Samuel Kim Nicole Carolin Brandon Greenblatt Mary Zuccarello

EDITORIAL BOARD Copy Chief East Asia and Oceania Editor East Asia and Oceania Associate Editor Eastern Europe and Central Asia Editor Eastern Europe and Central Asia Associate Editor Latin America and the Caribbean Editor Latin America and the Caribbean Associate Editor Middle East and North Africa Editor Middle East and North Africa Associate Editor South and Southeast Asia Editor South and Southeast Asia Co-Editor Sub-Saharan Africa Editor Sub-Saharan Africa Associate Editor The Anchor Editor The Anchor Associate Editor Western Europe Editor Western Europe Associate Editor

Ambassador Feeley Former Hoya Sworn-in, on p.1 Additionally, he claims that his diversification augurs well for sustained growth and development in Panama, where the current government’s focus on education and poverty reduction align well with U.S. policy objectives in the region.

He says, “the sui generis nature of Panama’s political history, first as

Panama serves... to offer expanded opportunities to traditionally marginalized communities. an American protectorate, then as a ‘divided’ country under various national but autocratic governments with a U.S.-controlled Canal Zone, then finally as a fully sovereign nation after the 1999 turnover of the Canal, means that Panama’s strong democracy has been hard fought and is much cherished by the Panamanian people.”

Ambassador Feeley also gave a special thanks to his Jesuit education, quoting the prayer of St. Ignatius.

As a graduate of the Jesuit-founded

Regis High School in New York City, as well as Georgetown University, Jesuit education has played a crucial role in Feeley’s personal and career development. In fact, the first people to receive a “thank you” from the new Ambassador were his high school classmates who attended the ceremony. Ambassador Feeley credited the Jesuit concept of Magis for teaching him the importance of being a man for others, which continues to inspire him in his current career.

When The Caravel asked what advice he would give to students at Georgetown who hope to pursue a similar career path, Ambassador Feeley said: “As far as joining the Foreign Service, the only advice I ever give is that you should do it because you possess 3 core qualities and beliefs: 1) The United States, while not perfect, is a self-correcting democracy that remains an undeniable beacon of hope and opportunity that other countries and societies seek to emulate; 2) The motivation to join is not “informed tourism,” but a sense of public service and a dedication to ensuring the above statement remains true; 3) The ‘psychic pay’ of exploration and learning is more important to you than the paycheck of a public servant.”