The Battalion: November 8, 2016

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 8, 2016 | SERVING TEXAS A&M SINCE 1893 | © 2016 STUDENT MEDIA | @THEBATTONLINE

ELECTION DAY 2 0 1 6 The road to Election Day A look back on Donald Trump’s, Hillary Clinton’s paths to the ballot 2015

APRIL 12, 2015: Clinton announces candidacy via a YouTube video JUNE 16, 2015: Trump announces his candidacy during a rally at Trump Tower AUG. 6, 2015: First GOP debate is held in Cleveland

CLINTON

OCT. 13, 2015: First Democratic debate is held in Las Vegas

TRUMP Olivia Adam — THE BATTALION

A look at the projected winners of each state. Information via FiveThirtyEight polling, as of Nov. 7.

AMERICA VOTES TUESDAY, NEW PRESIDENT WEDNESDAY

Local experts say Clinton has slight advantage, but outcome is uncertain

By Matt Jacobs @MattJacobs3413

A

fter two years on the campaign trail and as Election Day arrives, the outcome of the 2016 Presidential race is still largely uncertain, according to local experts.

The presidential race, which has included many lead changes in the polls, is as close as ever. Local experts say although an outcome

cannot be determined with certainty at this point, a small advantage currently resides with the Hillary Clinton campaign.

This latest narrowing in the national polling numbers comes as something of a surprise, and is a result of many conservatives returning to their party later in the game, according to Joseph Ura, A&M political science professor.

“The way the polls are tightening seems to suggest that a lot of Republicans — those who said they weren’t going to support Trump or that they were going to vote third party — that many of those people are coming back home in the final days,” Ura said.

Florian Hollenbach, A&M political sci-

2016

FEB. 20, 2016: GOP candidate Jeb Bush withdraws

ence professor, said the outcome of the election will depend on last minute efforts by candidates.

“I think there is still some uncertainty left,” Hollenbach said. “A lot of it will depend on how good or bad the ground games are for each of the campaigns are, on their efforts on getting people out to vote. It seems so far the Trump campaign has a relatively bad ground game, and they’re having trouble with that.

A lot of who wins will depend on how that ends up looking at the end.”

MARCH 1, 2016: Clinton, Trump win big in Super Tuesday primaries MAY 3, 2016: Ted Cruz drops out of GOP race JUNE 6, 2016: Clinton secures the 2,383 delegate minimum to secure democratic nomination

ELECTION ON PG. 3

JULY 12, 2016: Sanders endorses Clinton at DNC JULY 15, 2016: Trump announces Mike Pence is running mate

Professors discuss how polls are conducted and whether or not they should be trusted as reliable sources

JULY 21, 2016: Trump accepts GOP nomination

By Gap Barbin @gap_barbin

According to A&M professor Michael Longnecker, a good scientific poll takes a random sample that is representative of the population as a whole.

JULY 22, 2016: Clinton announces Tim Kaine is running mate

Presidential polls, which have saturated the national news throughout the 2016 election, are born from people’s curiosity to foresee the next president. But unlike skipping to the last page of a book, polls do not always reveal the true outcome, and Tuesday’s results will either confirm or deny the reliability of months of polling.

In its most recent presidential poll, USA Today reported the national averages at 45.5 percent for Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, 42.3 percent for Republican candidate Donald Trump, 4.7 percent for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and 1.8 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

Michael Longnecker, A&M professor and associate department head of statistics, said polling reliability lies in proper data collection.

“As you’ve been watching the national polls, they are all over the map,” Longnecker said. “So on a given day, there may be 10 polls, and the numbers for Clinton and Trump are just the opposite. In one poll, Clinton is ahead by four, and in another, they are tied. It all depends on how they are collecting their data.”

According to Longnecker, correct data collection is rooted in a random sample that is representative of the population as a whole.

“A good scientific poll will take a random sample of some population. But you may be excluding a whole group of people because they simply are not interested,” Longnecker said. “So, you are not getting a good picture. You need to consider, for one, are the people POLLING ON PG. 2

FEB. 1, 2016: Clinton, Ted Cruz emerge victorious from the Iowa caucus FEB. 9, 2016: Trump, Bernie Sanders win New Hampshire primaries

Election Day will reveal accuracy of polling

Rachael Grant — THE BATTALION

OCT. 21, 2015: Vice President Joe Biden confirms he is not running

JULY 22, 2016: Clinton accepts democratic nomination SEPT. 26, 2016: First presidential debate is held in New York OCT. 7, 2016: 2005 audio of Trump making crude comments surfaces, meets widespread backlash OCT. 28, 2016: FBI reopens Clinton email investigation

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REMINDER HANDS FREE BEGINS 11/9

Three former A&M students are on the ballot for College Station City Council.

Laura Haslam — THE BATTALION

3 Aggies on City Council ballot

By Matthew Jacobs @MattJacobs3413 As Brazos Valley residents head to the polls Tuesday, they’ll see three former A&M students on the ballot for College Station City Council positions.

The candidates — James Benham, Jeremy Osborne and Barry Moore — are all seeking various positions in the City Council for College Station.

Because decisions the council makes will have a direct impact on College Station, and therefore Texas A&M, the candidates encourage students to make their voices heard this election, both on local and national scales.

Moore, Class of 2005 and candidate for City Council Place 4, said his goal will be to improve social services and infrastructure in order to make College Station more attractive to businesses.

“I want to make sure we have an environment in this city that is conducive to bringing businesses into town,” Moore said. “There are two ways to increase revenue in a city: Raise taxes or expand the tax base. I would much prefer to expand the tax base rather than raise taxes on those

that are already here.”

Osborne, Class of 2004 and former news reporter for The Battalion, is running for City Council Place 3. Osborne said he decided to run for City Council when he saw issues in the city that he wanted to help solve.

“When I came back to College Station, I bought my first house and started my second business, trying to hire employees who live here locally,” Osborne said. “I just realized some problems that we have here in terms of affordable housing for young professionals and families, and for available office space for companies like ours. So I wanted to get involved to help create a business friendly environment that welcomes young families and businesses.”

James Benham could not be reached for comment.

Finance senior Spencer Davis, student liaison to College Station City Council, said although students may not always feel that voting for local representatives impacts them, there are tangible ways local representatives can make a difference in their lives.

“Quite often who sits on the city government or the county government affects students’ lives so much more day-to-day than who is in the

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registered voters? And number two: If they are registered voters, how inclined are they to vote? Because we know that only half of registered voters don’t even vote.”

Paul Kellstedt, professor of political science, said polling agencies have adapted their methods in recent years to accurately capture the attitudes of voters.

“The methods that organizations use to conduct polls have changed drastically over the last eight to 10 years,” Kellstedt said. “Polls used to be conducted exclusively through landline telephones. As the portion of households that have landlines has declined, though, different organizations supplement their landline surveys with one of two methods.”

These two methods include expanding to include cell phone numbers in addition to landlines and online surveys, according to Kellstedt.

“The second way to supplement land line use is to have people complete surveys online,” Kellstedt said. “That can be problematic because it’s very hard to ensure that the sample of online respondents is a random sample of Americans.”

Longnecker said while some polling agencies are generally more credible, presidential polling as a whole is not as mean-

White House in D.C.,” Davis said. “A lot of students don’t realize that they get taxed locally — it’s just priced into their rent or their leases, or whatever form of housing they are in.”

Although local elections can sometimes be perceived as difficult to follow, Moore said the student body at Texas A&M can have an enormous impact on these elections.

“Seeing how there are 60,000 [students] now, they can really have an impact on these local elections,” Moore said. “So I’d obviously encourage students to go out and vote, and to go all the way down the ballot and vote for their City Council.”

Osborne also encourages students to go out and vote and learn more about local elections.

“I think it’s very important for millennials to become involved in public service,” Osborne said. “We’ve become the largest segment of the working population in the Unites States, and as we advance professionally into management roles, it’s important for us to seek to give back, too. I think students are an important part of this community and they deserve to have their voices heard. So I would encourage them to go out and vote.”

ingful as the media portrays it to be.

“So what do these polls even mean? Almost nothing, because they are all over the map,” Longnecker said. “It all comes down to curiosity. We all want to know how it is going, and most people do not think about how accurate the poll is and how it is conducted.”

Kellstedt offers a different interpretation of the importance of presidential polling. He said voters should trust the accuracy of polls, but include a certain degree of skepticism.

“There is normal variation from one poll to another, and it doesn’t mean that one poll is more or less ‘accurate’ than another,” Kellstedt said. “The best strategy for voters is to think of each poll as one random draw from that population, and the best way to know what the population will do is to combine — by averaging — the results of lots of polls to get a better sense of what the population thinks.”

Some voters are more neutral on the subject of polling.

Ashley Jones, bioenvironmental science junior and pledged voter, said regardless of its accuracy polling has had little effect on her choice for the presidency.

“I just ignore polls, mostly. I know exactly what I feel, so it’s not going to sway me,” Jones said. “I usually just take them with a grain of salt.”

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ELECTIONDAY

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The Battalion | 11.8.16

CLINTON

TRUMP

Wisconsin

Olivia Adam — THE BATTALION

A proportional representation of the distribution of the electoral votes for each state. Information via FiveThirtyEight polling as of Nov. 7.

ELECTION CONTINUED With these things in mind, the advantage is still with Clinton, Ura said.

“The models predict a close election,” Ura said.

“If I had to bet on it, though, I would say that it’s more favorable for Hillary Clinton than not, she has a small but reliable lead.”

Florian Hollenbach also said the Clinton campaign as having a small lead going into Election Day. “It looks like Hillary Clinton is going to win,” Hollenbach said. “Everything indicates that she should win, but obviously there is still some uncertainty associated with it. A lot of it will have to do with the turnout of black and Latino voters. Overall, I would put it at a 70 to 80 percent chance of a Clinton victory.”

This election has been unusual in the eyes of

many people, which Isaac Zhukovsky, officer for Texas Aggie Democrats and petroleum engineering student, said can be explained by the political culture of the country today. “[Trump’s] staying power as a candidate can be attributed to the fact that we live in such a polarized nation,” Zhukovsky said. “People will vote for the party’s candidate no matter who it is.”

This idea was reaffirmed by Hollenbach, who said party identification helped to produce such a divisive presidential election.

“Most voters are very attached to their party,” Hollenbach said. “And so any party candidate usually has a good chance of winning simply because people will always vote for their party’s candidate. So in that sense the individual candidate doesn’t actually matter. Trump is certainly a very different candidate; he’s not from the political establishment. He doesn’t behave like a normal politician.”

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To commemorate the 2016 election, Aggie Agora will host its first presidential election watch party complete with prizes, presidential trivia, non-partisan discussion and a barbecue to celebrate the announcement of the country’s new leader.

The watch party will consist of speakers explaining exit polls, the electoral college as well as information about the democratic process. At time of press, 100 students are registered for the now booked event. The event commending the election results will take place in the Liberal Arts and Humanities Building, beginning at 5 p.m. Tuesday.

Because of the monumental aspect of the election, the theme of Aggie Agora this semester is “The American Dream”, said communication associate professor and Aggie Agora director Jennifer Mercieca.

“The Aggie Agora is a program in the College of Liberal Arts. It’s about critical thinking and citizen engagement,” Mercieca said. “So right now, we’re focused on the election because that’s what is going on.”

According to Mercieca the Agora has hosted multiple workshops and debate watch parties for the presidential debates leading up to election night.

“All semester long — actually for the last year and a half — we’ve had fact-checking workshops and ad-watch workshops, where students get to learn about political advertising. We’ve had campaign finance workshops and difficult dialogues,” Mercieca said. “And those were all designed to help and enable students, faculty and community members to be critical consumers of political information.”

Although the event is intended to be fun, Mercieca said it will be educational in terms of politics and logistics of election night as well.

“What we’ll be doing … is more of the same, offering people a way to engage with election night that is non-partisan, that isn’t about parties trying to spin what’s going on,” Mercieca said. “We’ll teach people how to read exit polls, how to understand the electoral college, what they can expect from acceptance speeches or concession speeches …it will be fun, but we’ll also be educating people on how to understand what’s going

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Communication doctoral candidate and Aggie Agora graduate fellow Jessica Gantt hopes students can feel connected to the election process, even if it seems like a distant matter.

“I really hope that they feel connected to this process of choosing a new president, of being an engaged citizen,” Gantt said.

“Even though there has been a lot of negative coverage, especially around this election, that we all are invested as citizens and I hope there is some sense of community out of that.”

Whichever candidate becomes the next President of the United States will affect citizens’ lives every day and as a citizen, you have a voice to make an impact, Gantt said.

“But right now, who becomes the next president, you may not understand how they touch your life specifically, but that creates a whole new version of our country and you’re a part of that country,” Gantt said.

“And you’re part of that citizenry. And you have a voice… I don’t want it to seem so far away, this is just stuff that we talk about that’s going to affect us every day and we’re just all trying to come together and make good decisions.”

Computer science junior and Aggie Agora undergraduate representative Henry Mureithi said it isn’t solely about Tuesday and finding out the presidential victor. Rather, the aftermath of Wednesday will be of more importance.

“It’s the day after that’s more critical,” Mureithi said. “Tuesday night’s going to determine who wins, but Wednesday is going to determine whether or not the country can thrive after that victory.”

Gantt said in order to be a leader, curiosity is required as well as staying informed on all perspectives, and currently that means both sides of the election.

“If you want to be a leader, or you feel like you could be a good leader, go to events where you hear about different perspectives on issues in general … I just really think that is the sign of a good leader is someone who is always curious,” Gantt said. “Right now, if we’re supposedly so politically divided then step up and be a leader, and go listen to other opinions so that you can then inform yourself, inform others and I see the Agora as a great place to do that.”

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