The Agency Red Paper 2022 | A (Re)Balancing Act

(RE)BALANCING ACT

THE AGENCY RED PAPER 2022

YEAR IN REVIEW YEAR IN REVIEW

If there’s one thing in life (and real estate) that’s constant, it’s change. And change came quickly to the housing market in 2022. The markets of 2020 and 2021 were anomalies, so why wouldn’t another unprecedented year follow?

However, halfway through 2022, the market shifted away from the unsustainable pace of the last two-and-a-half years: Volume dropped while the industry’s cyclical nature and historical seasonality quickly returned. What felt like a jolt was actually the beginning of a rebalancing act.

In preparing our annual Red Paper, the rebalancing theme resonated across our global offices. We saw buyers gaining power for the first time in a long time, only to be met with rising mortgage rates. The rate hike also cooled price growth, but only to a single-digit pace as demand continued to outpace supply. While some equilibrium returned, we’re still far from anything economists would call “normal.” The result? The “new normal” is still taking shape and will continue to do so in 2023.

One skill vital in today’s shifting climate is the ability to adapt quickly to whatever the market brings. Once again, The Agency was uniquely positioned to do just that, chiefly because we partner with the best agents in the business and foster a culture of collaboration. In short, 2022

proved what we already knew: No algorithm or impersonal approach can compete with the hyperfocused local expertise of a quality real estate agent. And quality over quantity is the only way we know.

Everything we do is in service to our agents and their clients, whether we’re unveiling a new tool, enhancing our service structure or forging new partnerships. Our focus is to fuel our agents’ knowledge, build their businesses and ease the transaction process for buyers and sellers across the globe. We’d say that approach is paying off.

While staying true to our boutique, collaborative culture, we entered 24 new markets this past year, from New York to Seattle and Austin to Atlanta. The Agency debuted on Netflix in the series “Buying Beverly Hills,” bringing our brand to living rooms worldwide. We launched The Agency Magazine, further establishing us as both a media company and a global lifestyle authority.

The Red Paper takes a deep dive into the year gone by and what to expect in the year ahead. While the world rebalances, we’ll be doing what we do best: setting the course for our industry, one strategic step at a time.

MARKET OVERVIEW MARKET OVERVIEW

A Look Back

For all of the dramatic headlines characterizing the market shift of 2022, there’s one thing that economists agree on: We are not experiencing a 2008-style housing crisis. The experts are calling the midyear shift a reversion, not a housing-market recession.

The origin story of the current market rebalancing begins back in early 2013 when a decade-long acceleration of the real estate market kicked off: a latent response to the 2008 housing crisis. By late 2019 and early 2020, the acceleration only grew more rapidly due to longstanding imbalances in supply and demand. Then came the pandemic, which further exacerbated the pace on two fronts: First, remote work, which was already a growing trend, hit a fever pitch spreading buyers throughout the global marketplace. Second, the early economic COVID-19 response saw a steep rise in fiscal spending as the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve pumped trillions into the economy. In 2020 and 2021, government spending for COVID relief totaled $5.5 trillion. For comparison’s sake, that’s

above the total government spending, adjusted for inflation, during all the years of World War II. Another crucial response to the pandemic was a concerted effort by the government not to let housing sink the economy. As layoffs spread, the U.S. government quickly instituted a mortgage forbearance program unlike any other in history. Foreclosures quickly disappeared, followed by a drop in mortgage rates to an all-time historic low. This created a phenomenon that kept more homeowners in their homes while sellers disappeared from the market, and with them, housing inventory. This phenomenon, in turn, created a highly unsustainable supply-anddemand problem.

The Shift of 2022

Fast forward to the beginning of 2022, when available inventory and mortgage rates remained incredibly low. By spring, this imbalance had led to an acceleration of prices beyond anyone’s imagination. In the U.S. government’s attempt to fight inflation, it started hiking interest rates, leading mortgage rates to more than double in less than two months.

By July, we saw a dramatic retreat in the market and lost the price gains made in early 2022. However, continuing low inventory preserved the price gains made from 2019-2021, causing housing prices to remain comparatively high overall. In addition, rising mortgage rates meant sellers were continuing to stay put, enjoying newfound equity and their established low mortgage rate. Put simply, we observed the opposite of what happened in 2008 .

The reality is, the market is slowly rebalancing, yet fundamental imbalances remain. Homeowners aren’t selling because the rates they’re facing as future buyers are much higher than their current rate. Typically, we realize an average of between 1.4 and 1.5 million homes on the market in the U.S. at any given time, but today, pre-pandemic inventory levels remain hovering at around 50% of that. And though rates have put a dent in demand, we also have a dent in supply. Though volume is down, prices are still growing year-over-year while unemployment is at its lowest in a half-century, mortgage rates are once-again falling and inflation is beginning to ease. In short, these phenomena, when combined, create a market climate unlike any other time in history.

What to Expect in 2023

Mortgage rates will continue to be the key metric to watch. If rates continue trending down to the 6’s and mid-5’s, expect sellers to make moves, leading to more volume and price growth, while buyers would wade back into the market buoyed by more buying power.

Meanwhile, the luxury market is expected to hold strong once again. Despite the broader market slowdown of 2022, the ultra luxury market saw at least seven deals close above the $100M mark, down from eight the year prior. More millionaires exist today than at any other point in history. Markets are more globalized than ever, and there is much wealth to be distributed, especially among hyperwealthy markets.

In addition, a major shift in generational wealth is underway from boomers to younger

generations. Millennials have never seen rates above 5% in their lifetimes, and as they bide their time waiting for rates to come down, they’re entering their 30s and 40s, bringing a wave of demand that’s expected to last for the next 15 years.

The younger generation also buys much differently: Many are snapping up what would be considered their “second homes” first, using them as investment properties. This contrasts with older generations who tend to buy secondary residences for lifestyle purposes, often choosing to spend more time away from their primary residences thanks to the flexibility of remote work. And with the U.S. dollar remaining strong, buyers will continue looking overseas for their next purchase, from Mexico to Canada and Europe to Asia.

One fact is clear: Housing remains a primary investment for the world’s most affluent citizens and a safe hedge against inflation. Households still generate wealth from their homes and will continue to do so. While economists predict the slowdown in volume to continue into the start of the new year, supply is still tight and demand is on the rise, meaning price growth is still expected in the year ahead.

Finally, the news came before year’s end that the consumer price index rose 7.1%, less than expected in November, a sign that inflation was beginning to loosen its grip on the economy. The Fed acknowledged the cooling while continuing its battle against inflation by raising the benchmark interest rate by .5%. The news had a positive effect on mortgage rates, which trended lower, leaving experts feeling more positive about a “soft landing” for the economy in the year ahead.

MAURICIO UMANSKY Founder & CEO RAINY HAKE AUSTIN President

Driving Success in a Challenging Market

The year gone by was certainly an interesting one for the real estate industry. Brokerage business models shifted, leadership changed hands, iBuyers folded and algorithms failed to properly predict the dramatic shift in the market that occurred halfway through 2022. So what is the way forward for the real estate industry? How does a brokerage position itself for success on behalf of both its agents and its clients, no matter what the market brings?

Before that question can be answered, we must first address the challenges that remain. The fact is, the home buying and selling experience remains complicated on many fronts. From securing a mortgage to closing, the process is disjointed. Millennials and younger generations entering the market in droves are accustomed to automation in nearly every service sector. Yet, when it comes to buying a home, the experience can be less than seamless, with buyers and sellers utilizing different providers and systems to achieve their desired end.

While the rise of technology in the real estate industry is helping to close some of these gaps, a consequent loss of personalization creates other problems. It’s clear tech solutions aren’t

FORWARD

the only answer, and only focusing on the tech is a mistake. When it comes to the largest financial decision in a person’s lifetime, having a human on the other side of the table—an expert with deep local knowledge and understanding of their clients and the market—remains the most important part of the equation.

So what’s the perfect balance? The Agency believes in putting people first, partnering with the best agents in the business and bringing those experts together with one common mission: to provide our clients with exceptional service and knowledge. Secondly, we are equipping those agents with the technology and resources necessary to simplify and enhance the real estate experience.

This is what allows us to provide boutique, concierge-level service for our agents on a global scale.

The Agency has the highest staff-to-agent ratio in the business—340+ staff serve 1,500+ agents.

Strategic Initiatives to Spur New Growth

In 2022, The Agency made the strategic move to acquire Triplemint, the software-powered, independent firm based in New York City. Triplemint has delivered on its mission of leveraging proprietary technology to create a smarter buying and selling experience. The company crafted a fully integrated tech solution using proprietary data platforms to help agents generate and close more business with enhanced efficiency. Together as The Agency, we are expanding our resources and innovating a boutique, agent-first, tech-driven approach to serving our clients.

Elevating the buying and selling experience by connecting the entire ecosystem of the real estate process, from mortgage to title insurance, home warranty to closing, remains paramount. In 2022, The Agency launched its Core Services program, partnering with industry leaders to streamline the entire process and provide essential services throughout the transaction process. Matching The Agency’s commitment to service and excellence, we’ve partnered with Cross Country Mortgage, Choice Home Warranty and Pillar to Post in our initial launch.

And while we’re on the subject of making connections, The Agency’s growth strategy is focused on connecting global markets to drive referrals and allow our local agents to support their clients anywhere in the world. As a lifestyle-driven company, The Agency aims to serve our clients whether they’re buying a first home in a major metro market or a second home in the mountains, by the beach or in the heart of a global cultural destination. From our global partner offices to our inhouse Relocation Department, we continue to build an ecosystem that allows us to intentionally partner with incredible people in premier destinations around the world.

The way forward and the path to winning for The Agency is a combination of past, present and future elements. We will keep what has stood the test of time: leveraging the local knowledge and expertise of the agent—the human element that provides exceptional, personalized service—as the center of the experience. And, we will continue to evolve by powering those agents with technology, services, resources and connections that provide an unmatched experience for the clients.

The right people, in the right places, backed by unparalleled support from the top down: We believe it all adds up to a success that’s far greater than the sum of its parts.

OUR GLOBAL REACH

The Agency launched 24 offices in 2022, bringing our boutique approach and collaborative culture to markets around the world.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK

SOUTH SHORE, NEW YORK

CAPE COD, MASSACHUSETTS

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON

AUSTIN, TEXAS

SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA

NORTH ATLANTA, GEORGIA

NAPLES, FLORIDA

BOZEMAN, MONTANA

THE BAHAMAS

THE CAYMAN ISLANDS

ST. GEORGE, UTAH

BIRMINGHAM, MICHIGAN

SAN MIGUEL ALLENDE, MEXICO

CHESAPEAKE, VIRGINIA

FREDERICK, MARYLAND

OTTAWA, ONTARIO

BRANTFORD, ONTARIO

MUSKOKA, ONTARIO

MONTREAL, QUEBEC

DOWNTOWN TORONTO, ONTARIO

LOS GATOS, CALIFORNIA

LOS ALTOS, CALIFORNIA

THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

OUR GLOBAL REACH

BY THE NUMBERS 2022

BY THE NUMBERS 2022

$57.4B Global Sales Volume

1500+ Agents 340 Staff Support

65+ Offices

$1.6M

Average Global Sales Price

Among RealTrends Top 50 Firms in the U.S. with a $2.5M Average Sales Price #1

420K+

Instagram Followers as One of The World’s Most-Followed Residential Brokerages

Average Annual Sales per Agent Globally $9.4M

8 Countries

1 Connected Community

Sales Volume in 2022 (Up from $11.3B in 2021) $12.4B

UNITED STATES MAJOR METRO + SUBURBAN MARKETS

Major metropolitan areas and suburban markets were in the full swing of a rebalancing act in 2022, with four key themes playing out over the course of the year.

The Rental Market Was Hot

With mortgage rates staying high, many opted to rent instead of buy, leading to a highly competitive rental market. The New York City rental market stood out as one of the most expensive, with the average monthly rent surpassing $5,000: the highest ever in history.

Amenitized Living Stayed a Priority

All the bells and whistles that buyers sought out during the pandemic? Well, we still love them. Amenity trends, from pools to sports courts, held strong.

Traditional Design Influences Came Back

Sleek, minimalist ultra-modern design was on its way out this year, while the warm features of traditional design made a comeback. The classics stick for a reason.

New Development Was Bustling

Major metro and suburban markets saw a large number of new development projects taking shape in an effort to rebalance the marketplace with fresh inventory.

If We Had a Crystal Ball

Stability will be the name of the game. While the current market presents some points of discomfort, buyers, sellers and agents will acclimate to the new normal until the market picks up again.

ARIZONA Arizona saw luxury buyers, mostly from densely populated areas such as those in California and Seattle, engaging in the market to take advantage of remote work and securing vacation homes in the state’s still-affordable locales. What did they want? Private, secure escapes. How did they want it? All cash, please.

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Rapidly growing Atlanta saw an increase in prices, with Johns Creek, the most culturally diverse city in the Atlanta Metro Area and among the nation’s safest cities to live, increasing by a hefty 20% in average price year-over-year. Families continued to migrate to the suburbs seeking more value, space and amenities, including outdoor entertaining areas, pools and home offices.

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AUSTIN, TX

Single-Family Residences

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Austin was not immune to the nationwide slowdown, with inventories ticking up in the second half of the year, and properties taking longer to sell. Things were a bit different on the luxury home front, as the high end of the market held up relatively well. Credit the ongoing influx of people from California, New York and international markets. Continued expansion investment from global corporations helped fuel demand for a myriad of development projects across greater Austin.

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BOSTON, MA

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With school back in session, the college town of Boston was bursting with 99% occupancy over the course of a vibrant fall market. The average sales price rose 3% as inventory was hard to come by. For buyers, outdoor space and off-street parking were particularly alluring.

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BAY AREA, CA

Single-Family Residences

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In line with 2021, low inventory and bidding wars marked the Bay Area story for the first half of the year. However, the second half brought a new chapter when higher interest rates began to impact the market, resulting in a dramatic drop in closed volume (down 37%) and fewer properties generating multiple offers. The year ended with supply and demand in balance and fewer buyers in the market.

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Decision-making for L.A. buyers and sellers became challenging as market changes emerged that caused a collective pause. Diminished inventory led many homeowners to renovate instead of moving, and legacy homes became popular as buyers sought to own the irreplaceable. Buyers hailed from all over, including the East Coast and the Bay Area, as well as London and Australia. Homes with health-related amenities and sports courts (pickleball, anyone?) were particularly popular. Pacific Palisades and Brentwood were the hottest markets in the area, bursting with a surge of activity.

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SAN DIEGO, CA

Single-Family Residences

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Urban/coastal San Diego saw many buyers relocating to its communities, seeking the seaside beauty the area is known for as well as modern design, outdoor spaces and home offices. While San Diego stayed busy with a robust economy and low unemployment as well as a large influx of tech, finance and medical workers moving to the area, the region did see a decrease in activity, volume and a drop in value from the spring high, following greater national trends.

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The D.C. Metro area was still a seller’s market, experiencing short supply and healthy demand. Large companies migrated to the area, bringing plenty of buyers, including international clientele, while sellers were on the move relocating to destination markets. Prices took a leap as buyers sought amenities, contemporary aesthetics, traditional layouts and turnkey living. These shifts were mirrored In the nearby commuter-friendly suburbs of Frederick, Urbana and Middletown, Maryland, where home inventory dropped, median home prices rose 9% and interest in more space remained high.

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Hot market alert: In 2022, everyone was trying to get into the Denver area rather than leave it, especially with its continued relative affordability and vibrant lifestyle. Similar to other markets, Denver buyers wanted move-in-ready residences.

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BIRMINGHAM, MI

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Birmingham continued to grow by 6% as the market normalized. The healthcare and automotive sectors drew buyers from Chicago and Florida who sought turnkey, in-town options that provided home offices. Contemporary design with traditional influences was the style of choice among buyers drawn to Birmingham’s desirable lifestyle and urban setting.

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FAIRFIELD COUNTY, CT

Single-Family Residences

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Though Fairfield County saw some market cool-off, buyers still flocked from New York City to the suburbs, specifically first-time buyers and families. Sellers were gearing up to put their homes on the market throughout the year, trying to get their piece of the pie before the market shifted. Overall, prices leveled off, and the area saw the same rebalancing as the rest of the country.

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With low inventory and rising interest rates, some Hoboken buyers decided to stop searching for homes until rates improve. That phenomenon alone has created a strong rental market locally, with rentals yielding similar statistics to the sales market.

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LAS VEGAS, NV

Single-Family Residences

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The Las Vegas luxury market stayed strong, with higher mortgage rates only slowing home sales below the $1M mark. In fact, agents saw an unusual number of multiple-offer scenarios, often in the seven-figure price range. While the market began to stabilize, homes spent fewer days on the market as buyers, most of whom were from California, gobbled up the limited inventory. Developers bustled to create more homes to meet the demand.

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NEW YORK METRO

Condominium Residences

New York City, along with neighboring suburban markets like Westchester, saw incredibly high demand and low inventory in both home sales and rentals. 2022 brought record breaking events, as the average rent in NYC surpassed $5,000, the highest ever in history. At the same time, the vacancy rate continues to hover around 4%, and there is little-to-no inventory to speak of. Bidding wars weren’t exclusive to home sales in the Big Apple: There were also renter-to-renter battles as people desperately sought to secure housing. And desirable residential communities just outside the city in Westchester prime markets such as Scarsdale, Rye, Pelham, Harrison, Larchmont, and more, continued to be in high demand as inventory remained low.

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SEATTLE, WA

Single-Family Residences

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Tech and healthcare industries continued to usher buyers with an appreciation for sustainability into Seattle, bringing with them bidding wars through mid-year. By summer, the market and the bidding wars cooled, with sellers having to adjust prices as mortgage rates began to climb. As sellers flocked to sunnier weather and more affordable locations, they learned that muted white-and-gray palettes were no longer on-trend as they listed their homes. (Wow factors are now taking the spotlight.) Online appeal, including shortform lifestyle videos, was a key differentiator when it came to marketing homes here.

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SOUTH FLORIDA, FL

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South Florida saw a normalizing market and a return to high seasonal demand. Buyers and renters from around the U.S., Canada and Latin America sought a relaxed oceanside lifestyle, coastal contemporary-style homes, ample outdoor space, amenity-rich offerings and the state’s famously appealing lack of income tax. Plus, with continued workflow and supply chain slowdowns, interest in turnkey homes was high. Overall, inventory was tight and the market remained competitive, with median sales prices rising 35% year-over-year.

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Part 2

UNITED STATES DESTINATION MARKETS

From Park City to Maui, Aspen to the Hamptons, slim inventory throughout the U.S.’s destination markets made buying competitive. But the promise of new development kept demand strong. As the year closed out, a few consistent trends emerged.

Remote Workers are Still Driving Demand

No office? No problem. As many maintain their remote work lifestyle, permanent relocation to traditionally seasonal—and scenic—markets continued.

Buyers Seek Turnkey Homes and Luxury Developments

Buyers want the process to work smarter for them, not harder. Streamlined, turnkey real estate offerings in standalone and amenitized community settings were hot commodities.

Sellers Take a Pause and Renters Extend Leases

As interest rates rose, buyers hesitated more, and many sellers opted to pull listings from the market. Transactions began to slow, but with demand for housing still high, would-be buyers turned to short- and long-term leases. Exemplifying the heat behind this trend is Montana’s fast-growing Bozeman region, which has seen a less than 1% vacancy rate for residential rentals.

Inventory is Still Catching Up to Demand

Rebalancing is in progress, with some sellers still on the fence about listing and developers sprinting to bring more inventory onto the market.

If We Had a Crystal Ball

Renters will be holding out for the winds to change and will navigate a competitive and expensive rental market until those winds shift.

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Buyers funneled into Aspen from California, Texas, New York and Miami, many seeking weekend and holiday retreats. Existing Aspen residents desiring more space spread outward to Basalt, Carbondale and Glenwood Springs while holding on to their original estates. Buyers in the market pivoted to fractional ownership with companies like Sonhaus or turnkey homes within luxury developments like Dancing Bear, The W Aspen, Little Nell and The Aspen Mountain Residences.

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BOZEMAN, MT

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As one of the nation’s fastest-growing micropolitan cities, Bozeman and the surrounding southern Montana region’s lifestyle and lower cost of living has appealed to remote workers from around the country: They now make up 40% of residents. Bozeman saw a less-than 1% vacancy rate for rentals as intense demand for permanent housing grew along with prices—the median sales price rising 17% over 2021. Investors are showing interest in local short-term rentals and developers are continuing to cultivate amenitized communities in Big Sky near Yellowstone National Park.

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CARMEL, CA

Single-Family Residences

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As low inventory and bidding wars continued in the nearby Bay Area, Carmel emerged as a coveted coastal destination for remote workers seeking a more balanced lifestyle as well as retirees drawn to the region’s world-famous golf scene. Though sales activity slowed compared to 2021, the median price-per-square-foot rose 21% year-over-year, and median sales prices were up 10%.

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COACHELLA VALLEY, CA

Single-Family Residences

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The desert called to permanent and second-home buyers seeking amenity-rich golf course homes, one-of-a-kind midcentury modern estates and ultra-private retreats. Demand was sparked by an influx of remote and tech workers. While median home prices decreased 5.5% since August, they are still up 17% year-over-year, and median price-per-squarefoot rose 22%. Though the number of sales followed a normal seasonal ebb, overall sales dropped 31% year-over-year. While the entire region has seen a decline in sales, homes priced above $700,000 have been least affected.

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ORANGE COUNTY, CA

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The scenic coastal market south of Los Angeles saw a significant decrease in sales over 2021—down 46% year-over-year. But, inventory is stabilizing and demand for the region’s picturesque suburban and seaside offerings remains consistent, with median sales prices rising 14% compared to 2021.

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Coastal Virginia is home to some of the region’s most coveted real estate. During the pandemic, homeowners who renovated and refinanced are now standing firm on their desired sale prices, or choosing to wait to sell. Accordingly, market inventory remains low, and while demand is steady, the number of all-cash transactions is high. Median sales price rose 11% over 2021, but economic shifts have impacted activity: Overall, sales are down approximately 27% year-over-year.

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LONG ISLAND & THE HAMPTONS, NY

Single-Family Residences

Long Island continues to attract buyers from New York City and other nearby metropolitan hubs seeking larger, turnkey homes with backyards, pools and beach access. Once a more seasonal attraction, the recent market saw buyers relocating to the Hamptons year-round, as inventory remained low. Though the market has reached a healthier balance, demand remains high, with median sales prices rising 13% year-over-year.

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While the landscape may be shifting and softening slightly, this tropical destination still remains a seller’s market. The region saw a steady rise in active listings. Inventory increased by more than 23.1% and median sales price rose 20%, while the number of sales dropped by 31%—largely a rebalancing from 2021’s intense demand. South Maui is perhaps the most desirable region, as it was home to the majority of Maui’s highest home and condo sales.

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Naples saw a slowing market in 2022 compared to 2021’s buyer frenzy. This past year provided a healthy opportunity for the market to stabilize and rebalance itself after an unprecedented few years. Seasonality returned and buyers across the U.S., including Chicago, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, California, and the Northeast sought out beachy, oceanside retreats and contemporary-style homes. The median price rose 24% yearover-year, while sales slowed nearly 31%.

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PARK CITY, UT

Single-Family Residences

5-YEAR MARKET OVERVIEW

Park City home seekers hailed from across the country, including New York, Florida, Texas, Arizona, Illinois, Southern and Northern California. Housing inventory tripled in 2022, though still remained historically low. That said, more options have emerged for buyers seeking primary or secondary homes. The overall market is still strong. However, buyers are now able to purchase their homes of choice with less risk of competition and multiple offers.

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ST. GEORGE, UT

Single-Family Residences

5-YEAR MARKET OVERVIEW

As the number-one fastest-growing metro area in the nation, St. George is attracting active individuals, families and leisure seekers from around the country. New buyers (many of whom work remotely) migrated from California, New York and Las Vegas, among others. As housing demand remains high, inventory is still catching up. Developers have honed in on the region, breaking ground on large-scale communities that offer a range of amenities including golf and trail access.

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Part 3

INTERNATIONAL MAJOR METRO + SUBURBAN MARKETS

Major international metropolitan markets from Canada to the Netherlands saw similar trends to the United States: traditional design influences made a comeback, amenities were in high demand and lots of new development projects were in the works. A few other factors gained importance, including a significant jump in energy prices due to the war in Ukraine and Russia’s tight control of vast gas supplies. Here are three takeaways from 2022:

A Cooling Felt Around the Globe

The wild real estate frenzy of 2021 settled this year. Bidding wars, rapid offers and rising prices took a break as a pre-pandemic pace allowed buyers to take a breath.

Rising Energy Prices (and Anxiety) in Europe

Europeans were faced with the aforementioned jump in energy prices, and the uptick is projected to continue. In fact, Goldman Sachs is predicting that in 2023, the typical European household may spend as much as 500 euros monthly on energy bills (more than a 300% increase as compared to 2021 costs). All that is to say, those who owned older homes with poor heating solutions were heading to market.

A New Normal for Renters

The rental market in international metropolitan areas was hot, escalating quickly. Renters were confronted with steep competition and high prices.

If We Had a Crystal Ball

European governments will continue to navigate a complex energy crisis. Renters will face high prices until mortgage rates settle.

AMSTERDAM, NL

Single-Family & Condominium Residences

Along with much of Europe, the Netherlands was preoccupied with rising energy prices— along with increased interest rates and inflation—and their effects on the housing market. Many sellers were looking to offload older, less insulated homes (and the steep energy bills they were generating). Buyers were mostly global ex-pats, many of whom wanted property in prime Amsterdam neighbourhoods and nearby surroundings as they came for work at the European headquarters of global tech companies, such as Uber, Netflix and Tesla.

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Single-Family Residences

Despite high mortgage rates weighing down on the housing market, Alberta’s major cities fared better last year than other Canadian markets. Though borrowing costs are expected to continue to rise for homebuyers (further dampening sales activity for the rest of the year), Alberta’s market will likely stay strong in 2023.

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VANCOUVER ISLAND, B.C.

Single-Family Residences

5-YEAR MARKET OVERVIEW

60–70% of buyers across Vancouver Island were local, while the other 30–40% were from Vancouver, Alberta and Toronto. Although more expensive than surrounding markets, Victoria—an insulated micro-market at the southern tip of the island—was a popular destination for retirees. Sales were down 25% and prices were up 13% year-over-year.

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VANCOUVER, B.C.

Single-Family Residences

5-YEAR MARKET OVERVIEW

Vancouver reflected global trends with a slowing market and increased interest rates. The median sale price was up by 14% year-over-year at $2.4M. The pandemic-era desire for amenities such as pools and sports courts remained. The rental market was hot, with prices taking a steep spike as demand grew.

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Condominium Residences

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OTTAWA, ONTARIO

Single-Family Residences

Hit with a busy (and record-breaking) market, Ottawa hit the ground running in 2022 when it came to real estate. As things cooled off over the year, buyers were able to take a bit more time and flex some negotiation.

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TORONTO, ONTARIO

Single-Family Residences

Toronto and premiere neighbouring communities such as Oakville felt the heat of the hot market that led Q1, with the pace normalizing toward the end of the year. The average home price reached $2.6M across the capital city with a mere 16 median days on market. Unlike the international market of pre-COVID times, where Toronto saw an influx of international buyers, the majority of buyers in 2022 were locals looking to downsize or upsize.

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WATERLOO REGION & ONTARIO SUBURBAN

Single-Family Residences

5-YEAR MARKET OVERVIEW

Located an hour from Toronto, Brantford and the nearby Waterloo Region are highly desirable areas known for their picturesque neighbourhoods and abundant recreational offerings. In Brantford, inventory for both single-family residences and condos rose exponentially and median sales prices rose 7%, though overall sales dipped 26%. Throughout the year, the rental market in Waterloo was buzzing, with multiple offers and increased prices serving as the new normal. Developers hurried to get more modern homes on the market to satisfy consumer demand. In a region that has largely comprised traditional-style homes, this evolution in design aesthetics is changing the look and feel of the area.

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Single-Family Residences

5-YEAR MARKET OVERVIEW

Montreal remained a comparatively affordable Canadian market and saw a burst of multiplexes last year. In addition, prices started to stabilize, bidding wars became less frequent, and listings lingered on the market for a median of 46 days. By contrast, the rental market was on fire with developers hustling to get more residences in place. Baby Boomers downsized, selling larger homes and looking for manageable (and amenitized) condos.

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Part 4

INTERNATIONAL DESTINATION MARKETS

From the Caribbean to the Baja Peninsula and Riviera Maya, international destination markets experienced similar challenges as the rest of the world: tight inventory, competitive rental markets and a push for new development to answer the demand of buyers looking for second homes and investment properties. Here are three key trends for the year:

Desire for Modern, Amenitized Developments with a Community Feel

As with other markets, buyers in international destinations sought warm contemporary designs, modern amenities, turnkey living and homes that were less isolated, felt more inviting and lent a sense of community.

Rental Markets Continued to Heat Up

Though sales chugged along, momentum slowed in comparison to 2021. High interest rates impacted the boldness of buyers in international markets, but didn’t stop them from making the flight—they just landed long and short-term rentals instead. A top highlight: Rentals on world-famous paradise Turks & Caicos stayed over 65% filled for the majority of 2022.

As Inventory Catches Up, Buyers Buy…and Wait

Where it was possible, developers capitalized on the market’s lack of inventory. Anxious to lock down properties in their dream destinations, buyers purchased homes pre-construction, willing to wait a year or more for a tropical retreat to call their own.

If We Had a Crystal Ball

New developments will crop up where they can. Meanwhile, would-be buyers will settle for long-term leases while they wait for new construction to be completed.

THE BAHAMAS

Single-Family Residences

5-YEAR MARKET OVERVIEW

Compared to 2021’s intense market, 2022 trended slower, but remained steady, with median sales prices rising 15%. Inventory was limited in the $750,000+ category, though new developments are on the horizon in 2023. New construction emphasizes more modern interiors and open floor plans. Buyers are attracted to the Bahamas’ 0% income tax and the ability to become a permanent resident after purchasing a property priced above $750,000.

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Single-Family Residences

5-YEAR MARKET OVERVIEW

The Turks & Caicos market has remained strong, with the lack of inventory and the strong rental returns slowing the rate of transactions. An ongoing lack of inventory drove new developments and caused a surge in the rental market. Even at the slowest time of year, rentals on the island were over 65% filled. Buyers from eastern Canada, New York and Boston continue to migrate to Turks, and the island’s upcoming airport expansion promises more direct flights from major metros. Buyers are also pushing for more connected communities, with amenitized developments at the forefront of demand.

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CAYMAN ISLANDS

2022 was Cayman’s second highest year in property sales with a total of $972M in properties sold—trailing sales in 2021 of $1.08B. Despite an impressive year, the Cayman Islands began to mirror global trends with a slowing market in the latter half of 2022. Residential transactions declined by over 10% and properties stayed on the market slightly longer. Interest from international buyers stayed strong—from the U.S. and Canada in particular. Buyers still respond to the appeal of the island nation’s tax-neutral status, lack of restriction on foreign ownership and the carrot of being granted permanent residency after spending $2.4M in developed real estate—and, of course, the allure of Caribbean living.

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MUSKOKA,

Single-Family Residences

As Ontario’s much-beloved lake country destination and “The Hamptons of the North,” Muskoka presents rugged natural beauty, vibrant culture and ample lakeside recreation. In 2022, the median home sales price rose 8% and buyers continued to flow in from metropolitan centres like Toronto—though the market did slow, with overall sales dipping 36%.

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After an intense post-COVID sales boom, inventory in Mexico’s Baja California peninsula, including Los Cabos, remained tighter throughout 2022. For the first time since 2007, the region is in a pre-sale market. Amenitized new developments promise engaging perks like trampoline parks and rock climbing walls. One-to-six-month leases have emerged as a stopgap for frustrated would-be buyers. Feeder markets saw a slight shift from the U.S. east coast to the west, with new interest from Mexico City residents who work remotely and desire a more relaxed, coastal lifestyle.

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Single-Family Residences

5-YEAR MARKET OVERVIEW

The scenic coastal enclaves of Puerto Vallarta and Punta de Mita on the western edge of Mexico maintained steady activity throughout the year, with sales actually rising 1% over 2021, and median sales prices clicking up 13%. Low cost of living, climate, crystal clear waters and the white sandy beaches and ample outdoor recreation are just a few elements that continue to attract buyers from the U.S. and beyond.

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Over the last few years, more people discovered the Riviera Maya and were inspired to invest in high ROI vacation homes—some of which became more permanent dwellings thanks to remote work. Riviera Maya is still primarily a pre-construction, cash market. While the region, particularly Tulum, has always had a strong rental market, 2022 saw increased interest in Playa del Carmen to the north. Buyers also opted for villas as opposed to condos, seeking more space, privacy, unique architecture and lavish features like ground-floor, swim-up residences.

Condominium Residences

INLAND CONDOMINIUMS

OCEAN CONDOMINIUMS

THE AGENCY DEVELOPMENT GROUP

Year in Review

Though demand for new development products remained consistent throughout 2022, overall, this was a year when buyers took a beat. Starting in the late spring and early summer months, conversions to sales became more pragmatic, and generally, traffic to new developments slowed. While sales volume decreased, pricing and price per square foot remained high.

Across the board, wellness amenities took center stage in residential developments, answering the desires of buyers seeking more balanced, healthful lifestyles. In addition to perks like cold plunges and infrared saunas, new communities attracted residents with thoughtfully designed interiors that incorporated ample natural light and access to greenery. In multifamily developments, buyers showed their preference for a fully-serviced lifestyle—whether it be part of the HOA, or a curated service the residential management offers à la carte.

Leading-edge home technology is still playing a primary role in new developments and many developers are prewiring their offerings to preempt resident requests and expectations.

In terms of hot markets, buyers are still migrating to the Las Vegas area from metropolitan areas, specifically Northern and Southern California. The

Agency’s Los Angeles development properties— including Pendry Residences West Hollywood and Four Seasons Private Residences, Los Angeles— are fielding interest and buyers from Northern and Southern California as well as the northern East Coast and international cities. Downtown Los Angeles projects like 939 S Broadway are seeing interest from local prospects.

As for the year ahead, new development construction is on the horizon, and every developer is interested in maximizing presales, enticing buyers off of plans alone—especially in the New York market. Buyers are sensitive to higher HOA dues, and while they desire amenities and service elements that justify high prices, developers are being challenged to balance offering exceptional luxury features and maintaining an appealing HOA budget.

2022 was a dynamic year for The Agency Development Group, which took on six new properties, achieved over $170M in total sales and expanded its global real estate portfolio to more than $2.5 billion.

Spotlights

Pendry Residences West Hollywood by Montage Hotels & Resorts

The Pendry’s flagship collection of private residences is located mere moments from the Sunset Strip and WeHo’s most popular restaurants and entertainment venues. This limited collection of only 40 fully serviced private residences launched pre-sales in 2019, with The Agency Development Group and agents James Harris and David Parnes tasked with overseeing sales and marketing this past October. With residences priced from $4.5M now selling, these palatial homes are located adjacent to Pendry West Hollywood and boast contemporary, inviting designs by acclaimed EYRC architects with interiors by Martin Brudnizki. Residences feature airy floor plans with thoughtful finishes throughout, expansive outdoor spaces, spectacular city views, private elevator access and fullyserviced living by Montage.

Learn more at PendryResidencesWeHo.com

Ascaya

Situated in the mountains above the Las Vegas Valley, Ascaya features a collection of over 300 luxury homesites with custom homes and sweeping views of the Strip. Offering absolute privacy, the residential community boasts contemporary design masterpieces and world-class lifestyle amenities. Henderson, Nevada, where Ascaya is located, has seen an ongoing influx of buyers attracted to its outdoor recreation, fantastic weather and stunning landscapes, located within close reach of nationally recognized schools and entertainment. In 2022, total TADG sales reached over $63M. From 2014 to present, the total exclusive community sales has now surpassed $250M.

Learn more at Ascaya.com

Mayakoba

Mayakoba is a 620-acre, gated resort community located on the pristine shores of Riviera Maya, Mexico. Home to white-sand Caribbean beaches, pristine lagoons, rolling green fairways and leafy mangroves, Mayakoba features two hotel-branded residential offerings: Fairmont Residences and Rosewood Residences. Owners enjoy world-class amenities and services, including beach clubs, award-winning spas, kids’ clubs, a championship PGA golf course, dive center, nature trails and over 25 dining options, all located just moments from home. In 2022, nearly $53M of real estate was sold within the gates, a testament to the appeal of the highly serviced, amenity-rich lifestyle that hotel-branded residences can offer.

Learn more at Mayakoba.com

THE AGENCY HIGHLIGHTS THE AGENCY HIGHLIGHTS

Building Global Brand Presence

From dozens of new office openings to a top-ranked Netflix series, 2022 was a landmark year that saw The Agency expand and deepen its iconic brand presence around the world—all while staying true to our boutique vision.

Buying Beverly Hills

In November, The Agency premiered in the occu-soap series on Netflix to global excitement. The show follows the agents and clients within The Agency Beverly Hills and stars Mauricio Umansky, his daughters Farrah Brittany and Alexia Umansky, and more of The Agency’s talented team as they navigate the high-stakes world of luxury real estate in Los Angeles. “Buying Beverly Hills” quickly rose to the streaming service’s Top 10 most-watched shows in the U.S., Canada and nations worldwide.

Office Launches

From the beaches of the Bahamas to the red rocks of southwestern Utah, the Rocky Mountains of Colorado to the lively streets of Amsterdam, The Agency unveiled 24 new offices in 2022, welcoming hundreds of new agents and bringing our concierge-level service to communities around the world.

The Agency Global Forum

Taking place over three days in California’s scenic Palm Desert, The Agency Global Forum 2022 was an event to remember. The annual sales conference featured expert panels, renowned speakers—including Molly Bloom and Ed Mylett—educational workshops on timely

topics and unmissable social events crafted in The Agency’s signature style.

The Agency’s New York Acquisition

Following its acquisition in May of 2022, software-powered, independent New York Citybased firm Triplemint officially became The Agency New York. This milestone development also resulted in the expansion of The Agency team and the launch of new, leading-edge tech services. The pairing of The Agency and Triplemint brought together the most innovative luxury brand in real estate with some of the most revolutionary technology in the industry.

The Agency Magazine Launches

The first three issues of The Agency Magazine launched to rave reviews. Designed, edited and published by The Agency’s in-house creative marketing division, each edition featured fresh, expertly curated editorial content spotlighting the very best of home design, luxury fashion, fine dining, art, culture, travel, tech and more. From cruising the unchartered waters of the Antarctic to selecting one-of-a-kind home décor or finding the world’s best five-star spas, every issue highlighted incredible experiences, innovative experts and items that inspire and delight.

AWARDS & ACCOMPLISHMENTS AWARDS & ACCOMPLISHMENTS

Named Top Luxury Brokerage at Inman’s 2022 Golden I Awards

Mauricio Umansky was Named Among the Most Influential Real Estate Executives

#1 Among RealTrends Top 50 U.S. Firms with a $2.5M Average Sales Price by Transaction

Member of RealTrends’ Prestigious Billionaire’s Club for Closing $1B+ in Real Estate

Swanepoel Top 1000 Brokerages: Ranked #32 by Sales Volume

Ranked The Agency #27 Among Top 100 Fastest Growing Companies, exhibiting the highest revenue growth in the L.A. area.

Fastest Growing Private Companies for 7 Years

One of The Americas’ Fastest Growing Companies for 3 Years

SOCIAL MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS SOCIAL MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS SOCIAL MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS

We’ve never been the type to shy away from the spotlight, and 2022 was truly our year to shine. In just 12 short months, The Agency won two (more) Viddy Awards—a Platinum award for our next-level influencer real estate tour and a Gold award for our 2021 Global Forum social media video. Our primary Instagram account (@TheAgencyRE) also surpassed 420,000, solidifying our place as one of the planet’s most followed residential brokerages.

We also made a social splash with the November debut of our Netflix series, “Buying Beverly Hills,” which inspired memes, headlines and plenty of online conversations as it was streamed around the globe.

Top Social Stats for 2022

+54,000 New Followers (and Counting)

12,865,000

Total Number of Views on IG Reels

26,800,161 Total Impressions

8,339,497 Accounts Reached

Top Performing Post

119 Carica Road, Naples, Florida, Represented by Kara and Chris Resop

1.6M Views

133,992 Accounts Reached

11.5K Likes Comments 144 Shares

445 Saves 589

PUBLIC RELATIONS HIGHLIGHTS

PUBLIC RELATIONS HIGHLIGHTS PUBLIC RELATIONS HIGHLIGHTS

The Agency’s in-house, bi-coastal Public Relations Team keeps the headlines black, white and red all over.

OVER 2,000 Press Placements Annually

100+ Articles

Byline Features with Executives and Principals in Inman

OVER 250 Articles Featuring The Agency’s Executive Leadership and Brokerage Growth Articles Highlighting The Agency’s “Buying Beverly Hills”

PHILANTHROPY PHILANTHROPY

PHILANTHROPY PHILANTHROPY

2022 marked our most successful and generous year yet.

Collaborating with Giveback Homes, our official charity partner, we raised funds for global charities and organized dozens of events to create lasting, positive change in the communities where we operate. From Giveback Homes Build Days, ReStore events and lively local fundraisers to logging steps, hosting workouts, slinging cocktails and cleaning up our streets and parks, our devoted team members across the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Europe and the Caribbean were formidable forces of philanthropy this year.

THEAGENCYRE.COM

The Red Paper – The Agency Report 2022 (this “Report”), and the information contained in it, including without limitation all text, data, graphs, and charts (collectively, the “Information”) is the property of The Agency Holdco, Inc. or its subsidiaries (collectively, “The Agency”), and is provided for informational purposes only. The Information may not be modified, reverse-engineered, or reproduced, in whole or in part without prior written permission of The Agency. The Agency reserves all rights in the Information and the Report. This Report contains general information about The Agency and its franchisees and its and their undertakings from time to time, including without limitation information related to the real estate markets in which it and they do business; and the real estate industry generally. The data, estimates, and views expressed in this Report are based upon past or current market conditions and/or data and information provided by public sources, unless otherwise identified in the Report. Although every effort has been made to assure the accuracy of the data contained in this Report, The Agency makes no warranty or representation, either expressed or implied, with respect to quality, performance, or fitness for a particular purpose. Certain information set forth in this Report contains forward-looking statements that are based on The Agency’s and its franchisee’s current internal expectations, estimates, projections, assumptions and beliefs, and which may prove to be incorrect. Some of the forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as anticipate”, “believe”, “plan”, “estimate”, “expect”, “predict”, “intend”, “will”, “may”, “could”, “would”, “should” and similar expressions intended to identify forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance of the real estate market. There are a number of important factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those indicated by such forward-looking statements. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on any forward-looking statement. The information contained in this Report should not be relied on for investment, tax, legal or financial advice. Any reliance placed on this Report is done entirely at the risk of the person placing such reliance. In no event will The Agency or its franchisees be liable for direct, indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use or inability to use this Report.