TAR122 - Q12023 - DRC + LIBYA

POLITICS REDR AW N

Shiftsinthe political weather canbeharde tointerpretthandisruptionsin demography, technologyandclimatechange, buttheyare justassubstantive. Politicalsystemsarewhere Africa’s mega-trendsconverge.

Forevery government,three factors standout:the demographictransitions underwhichAfricawillhave the world’s highest number of working-agepeople by 2050,thepoweroffinancialand communicationstechnologyto restructuretheireconomies,andthethreatof climatechangeto destroy production andforcemassmigration.

Someofthaturgencyplayedoutatthe COP27climate summit,where Global South delegateswontheargumentto setup alossanddamagefundtocompensate stateshit by climatedamage. The nextstage– organisingcontributionsand disbursing payments –willbemoretesting still, but alandmarkhasbeenpassed.

Gettingthereneeded cross- continental organisation.Africa wenttothesummitwith multiplicityofcontinental,nationaland local organisations,overlappingandclashingasthe sawfit.A newclimatepoliticsisemerging.

Formanygovernments,the ideaofdisrup tionconjuresuptrouble.Narrowly,forman inpower, itmeanshundredsofthousandsof

tech-savvy youngpeopletakingtothestreets, holding ministersaccountable.

Thankstograssrootsactivists,Africanow hassomeofthemosttechnicallysophisticated electionsinthe world. Lookatthe voter verificationsystemsin KenyaandNigeria. Butpoliticalwilliscritical, eveninthehightechera.Shenanigans withelectorallistsand theriskofhacksintheelectoralcommission serveroffernewchances tofixthenumbers

In Kenya’snational electionsin August, WilliamRuto’s campaign ranafarbetter connectedand resourcedtechteamthanRaila Odinga’s.TheRutoteam’s masteryofthe electoralprocessescountered theinfluenceof Odinga’smoretraditionalistalliancebroking.

Asubscriptionto aVPN andanencrypted messagingserviceare derigeur formodern Africanactivists,whilesocial-mediaplatforms have boostedtheirsphereforcritiquingthe statusquo.Inresponse,rulingpartyapparatchiksare settingupmirrorsagainstthe ocialmedia r:toconfuseand ppositionpoliticalmessaging, and gime’s line. national heSahel,theHornandbeyond. uninparallelwith rnmentscrimitrictingor ivil-societyorganisations. bruarywill criticallytestthisdigital-analoguebalntcandidate but witha rcomethe la Tinubu heorganisationand ountrywithsome ormidable, hatiswhy atched.

Heav yweightelections, Benin bronze s, debt re structuring, fintech innovation,Gulfinves tment, por tdevelopment s, long-stay presidents,new re gional force s, striking nurs es…aglimpse of theyearahe ad

36 OPINION /TheshameofscapegoatingMandela

Youngcitizens and ANCleaders areblaming thefatherof South Africa forcontinued povert yandcrime,whilepopulis ts de stroyhis le gacy of tolerance and Africanunity.Whatifthe ANCtookalook at it self instead?

38 INTERVIEW /PresidentofGhana,NanaAkufo-Addo

PresidentAkufo -Addotalks to The Africa Report ab out thecountry’s recent $3bnde al withtheIMF,Ghana’s future ambitions, and how educationishis redline.

43 INVESTIGATION /TikTok &thepoliticsoftomorrow

As socialmedia become sthe ultimate toolb othfor savv ypoliticians andmanipulativeforeigngovernment s, The Africa Report analys es thes cale of disinformation in Ghana’sTikTokcommunity,and Big Tech’s manyfailure sonthe continent

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52

NIGERIA ELECTIONS

The‘change’electionin February will open up a pos t- Buhari era,withthe economykey forvoters.

DRCFOCUS

PresidentFélix Tshisekedi hasayeartoconvince theelectorate he’s worth anotherterm.

LIBYAFOCUS

Thecountry is tr ying toturn roundthe oils ectordespite politicalchaos

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FREE TR ADE

If a SouthAfrican company wins a contract in a foreign country, nobodysuggests that such a company ought nottohave beenconsidered onaccountof being a foreigncompany [‘Accused fromallsides, Beijing counter-attacks’, TAR online, 3 Oct2022]. I am100% certainthat Chinese companies know how to build good roads. I have drivenonthemall over Africa.Iftheiroffer ischeaperanditwill mostlikelybecompleted withinthe timeagreed upon,I see no reason why they should notbe giventhesecontracts. While they are atit, perhapsthey should send a thousandengineersand take Eskom over.

Carl du Plessis

DIGITAL ON THE DOWN -LOW

I lived inBangui from Jan-June2018, andam stillintouchwith friends there. Noone I knew –lower-middle-class CentralAfricansand Eritreans – knew about themove tocrypto, nor

whatitmeant[‘CAR backsdownfromimplementing cryptocurrency law’, TAR online,27 July2022]. Perhaps a handfulofpoliticaland foreignelite s will be able touseitto move money inand out ofthe country That’s about it, apartfrom,ofcourse, thedreadfulprospectof Wagnerusingittomove diamondsandother ill- gottenprofitsbackto Russia.

Anonym ous

A LONG WAY TO GO

Lai Mohammed wasn’tlying when recountingBuhari’s achievements[‘Buhari’s quality performance willboost Tinubu’s chances’, TAR online,18 Nov 2022],particularlyinthearea of infrastructure. Buharihas also done a great dealinotherareas inthepastseven-plus years of his administration:huge funds released for socialinvestmentandsecurity; agriculture has received a majorboost; [the]power supply is improving; EFCC andICPC have become a more fearfulbugbear of corruptNigerians. On theflip side, youthunemployment remainshigh, inflationis eatingtoo deeply intoourpockets, tertiary education is in chaos, andthe political atmosphere remainsuncertain, even volatile.

Gilber t Alabi Diche

BAD MANAGEMENT ?

One wondersindeed ifthefinanceminister isthesolecauseofthe inflationinGhana[‘I amnotguilty,butIam sorry forthehardship’, TARonline,22Nov 2022].Mostcountries arewrestlingwithprice hikes,andmostofthem areplayingwithREPO rateadjustments,which isanapproachto reduce moneysupplyinthe market. Thegistofthe matter isthatthere is

cost-pushinflationdueto hiccupsandorblockages onthesupplyside, thus reducingthe money supplyis onlyashort solution. The sustainable solutionistoaddress thesupplychain.Rising inflationary pressures, exacerbated by rising commodityprices, are compounding thepolicy challenges ofbalancing economic recovery withmaintaining price stability, says theIMF Jo el Uwizeye

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Thinkyou’vegotagriponthecontinent’snews, factsandfigures?Thefirstfivepeopletoanswer all12questionscorrectlywillreceiveayear’s subscriptiontoourdigitaledition.Pleasee-mail youranswersto: quiz@theafricareport.com by1February2023.

Howmanysickdays has PresidentMuhammadu Buharitakenduringhistwo termsinoffice? a. 50 b. 100 c. Morethan200

Howmanyjournalists were killed inAfricain 2022,accordingtoUnesco? a. None b. 6 c. 45

WhichAfrican citygrew the fastest in2022? a. Lagos b. Nairobi c. Accra

Which controversial topic wasa last-minute addition to theagendaatthe COP27 inEgypt? a. Climatecompensation b. Adaptationfunding c. Gasemissions

Egypt depends ontheNile forhow muchofits water? a. 85% b. 65% c. 97% 8

For whatdid Tanzania’s PresidentSamiaSuluhu use thecountry ’s $411,000 Independence Day budget? a. Abigcountry-wide celebration b. Redoingherpresidential residence c. To build dormitories forchildrenwith specialneeds. 9

WhichAfricannation abolishedtheteaching ofEnglishinprimary schoolsthis year? a. Nigeria b. Morocco c. Senegal

Blockbustermovie The WomanKing

10

WhichAfrobeatsstar wonaMusicofBlack Origin(MOBO) award for BestInternational Actthis year? a. Wizkid b. Burna Boy c. Rema 11

WhichAfricancitycame outasthesafestonthe continentina2022 barometer? a. AddisAbaba b. Cape Town c. Kigali 12

WhichAfrican leader isalsothe fatherof acurrentplayeron theUSteaminthe 2022FIFA WorldCup?

a. NanaAkufo-Addo b. George Weah c. WilliamRuto

A fight to the fin ishline

By HONORÉBANDA

President Félix Tshisekedi’s arrival inoffice in 2018 wasa surprise. With a fragile majority, he had to fighttoclear himselfsome space tooperate, with formerpresident Joseph Kabilaandthelatter’s allies still veryinfluential Slowlybutsurely, Tshisekedi madenewfriends–bothinternal, suchas former Kabilaconfidante turnedenemyMoïse Katumbi, who returnedfrom exilein2019, butalsoabroad,inKigaliandin Washington DC.

“We wanttobuilda strong Congo, turned toward its developmentin peaceandsecurity,” Tshisekedi said at his inauguration. As elections scheduled for December2023 come intoview, the Congolese people will deliver their verdict.

Thefundamentalsofthe DRC are thesame:thoughit is massively endowed withmineralandenergy potential,preciouslittle ofthe billionsof dollars extracted has beenshared withthepopulation. In2021, two-thirdsof Congolese were livingonunder $2.15 aday, accordingtothe World Bank Nevertheless, the economy has beenimproving. Withgrowthof

6.2%in2021and 6.1% estimated in 2022,thecountryhas maintained its upward momentum.

Andsomeefforts are being made to rebuild thesocialcontract – for example, inSeptember2021, free primaryschool education was introduced.Some2.5 million children are thoughtto have been broughtbacktoschool withthe measure, whichhascost $2.45bn, or40%ofthe nationalbudget.

Buildingregionalties

Thesamesecurityconcerns persist,however, andinhabitants ofthe eastern regionsbordering Rwandaare cynicalaboutany promisesofchange.

A periodof detentebetween Tshisekediand Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame raised hopes of a new era ofpeaceintheGreat Lakes region.Hopes grew further when Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveniconvinced Tshisekedi to jointheEastAfrican Community, which was ratified in July. When Kenya’s EquityBankand KCB announced their acquisitionsof Congolese banks, thisappeared to confirm thedirectionoftravel.

PresidentFélix Tshisekedihasonemoreyear toconvincetheelectoratetogivehimanother terminoffice.Hehasachievedalot,at home,intheregionandinternationally,but hefacesjustasmanyhurdles

But Tshisekediwasunlucky withhis timing.Justashe was courting KagameandMuseveni, the twoleadershad afallingout overcompeting accusationsof espionageandhostingdissidents.

In February 2019, Kagame closed Rwanda’s mainborderwithUganda foralmostthree years.Tshisekedi thenbecame partofthetripartite initiativewithhisAngolacounterpart,JoãoLourenço,totry to patch things up.Theflurryofmeetings andnever-implementeddeclarations were cutshortbythe Covid-19 epidemicinearly2020

Otherpeople’sbattles

Thetruetripwireforthecurrent fallingout wasthe entryof UgandantroopsintotheDRC tofight arebelgroupcalled the Allied DemocraticForces(ADF). Rwandahad long wantedpermissiontofightits ownrebelgroupin Congo–the Forces Démocratiques deLibérationdu Rwanda (FDLR)–and President Kagame wasreportedlyfurious.InaFebruary2022 addresstoparliament,Kagame saidhiscountry waspondering deployingtroopsinthe eastern DRCwithoutthelatter ’s approval.

Amonthlater,M23,arebel group formed by DRCsoldiersthat seized large swathes ofterritory in2012-2013,launcheditsmost intenseattacksinadecade(see page 93).Thepast fewmonths have seenfierceclashesbetween the CongolesearmyandM23, which TshisekediandtheUNsayis controlled by Rwanda –something Kigali denies (see page 72).

Therehavebeensome effortsto clawbackthebillionsof dollars

estimatedtohavebeenstolenfrom theDRCunder theKabila government.Commoditytrader Glencore, forexample, hasto payKinshasa $180minfines.

Miningmagnateand Kabilaconfidante DanG ertlerhasbeentrying to getthesanctionsimposedon him by theUStreasury department annulled.Hewasphotographed with Tshisekedi’schiefofstaff, GuylainNyembo,signingof adeal betweenhiscompany, Ventora Group,andthe Congolesegovernment,whichhandsback over$2bn ofminingandoilassets.

The dealshouldhelpconvince theIMFtopushaheadwiththe next$200mtrancheof a$1.5bn financingpackagethe Bretton Woodsinstitutionhadagreed on, tohelptheDRCwithitsbalance ofpayments.

Scrutinyis welcome

LessconvincedaboutDRC's progressovercorruptionisthe Financial Action Task Force (FATF), aglobalbodythatinvestigatesmoneylaunderingandillicit financialflows, whichisthreateningtoplaceKinshasaon aglobal ‘greylist’.Nicolas Kazadi,who becamefinanceministerinApril 2021,sayshewelcomesthe FATF move. “Wewanttomeet good governancestandards,” hesays.

ForTshisekedi, this willjust bebackgroundnoise.Hiscurrent taskisclear. First,pulltogether enoughallies whocanhelphimin troublesomeregions.The return of Bukavu-born formerchiefofstaff Vital Kamerhefrom astayinprison forpocketingcashwillhelphere.

Next,hewillneed tocounter hismountingopponents.From Katumbi(seepage91)to former primeministerMatata Ponyo, to Tshisekedi’sdisgracedformer ally Jean-MarcKabund, various heavyweights of the Congolese politicalarenaaregearingup for theelectoralfight.

NICOLASKAZADI MinisterofFinance,DRC ‘Rwandahasnot yetunderstood’

Rwanda’stoleranceofgold smugglingisunderminingthefreetradepotentialoftheEastAfrican Community (EAC),the DRC’s financeminister, NicolasKazadi says.OnthesidelinesoftheAfrica FinancialIndustry SummitinLomé, Togo,on29 November,Kazadi saidthatRwandahas “preferred workingoffthebooks”andhas “allowedcriminal enterprises” to operatein thetradeingold andcoltanfromtheDRC.From Rwanda’sperspective,“there’s moretogainfromillicittradingand in crime”thaninembracing transparentfreetrade,he said.

TheUSDepartmentofTreasury saysmorethan90% of thegold minedintheDRCis smuggled out to countries includingRwandaand Uganda, beforebeingrefinedand exportedto internationalmarkets, suchastheUnitedArabEmirates. Conflictgoldisalsothelargest sourceofrevenueforarmed groups operatingin theeasternDRC

Westerncountrieshavenot doneenoughtoraisetheir voices againsttolerance oftheillegal gold trade,Kazadisays.Thecriticism is “starting,butisstill tootimid”

The DRCbecametheseventh memberoftheEastAfricantrade blocinJuly.Accordingto Kazadi, KenyaandBurundi“understand thatthereisnochoicebut to build together”,butRwandahas“notyet understood”thebenefitsofDRC membership:“Atthemomentit’s notworking.”

HeisconfidentthattheEAC’s potentialwillbeunderstoodby Rwanda.“Theydon’thaveany choicebuttounderstand.Reason willtriumph,”he says

Interviewby DAVIDWHITEHOUSE

DRC

Who is Tshisekedi working with on the M23 crisis?

President Tshisekediismaintaining a hardlineagainstRwanda,whichhe accusesofsupportingtheM23rebelsin theDRC. To managethishighlysensitive issue,hereliesonanexpertentourage

DRCpresident Félix Tshisekedi’sbiggestheadache inthepast fewmonthshasbeentheadvanceofthe M23 rebels,whomheaccuses Rwandaofsupporting.Backed up by a report by aUNgroupof experts in Augustthatcited “solid evidence”that Rwandan troopshadaidedthe rebels,hehasbeenonthediplomaticoffensive formonths. At theUNsummiton 20Septemberhe denounced“Rwanda’s aggression” andcalled ontheinternationalcommunityto “no longer relyon[Kigali’s]shameless denials”.

Hehasalsoengaged intwomediationprocesses in LuandaandNairobi.Slowed down by Angola and Kenya’spresidentialelections,theseinitiatives are looking forasecondwind.Ameetingbetween

THESPOKESPEOPLE

PatrickMuyaya (1)

Sincethebeginningof thecrisis,communication ministerand government spokesperson Patrick Muyayahasembodied theoffensivelinethatthe governmenthaspublicly defended.Heisalso in regularcontactwith theUS lobbyingfirms theDRChired atthe beginningofthe year. TheScribeStrategies and Advisorsfirm,headed by Joseph Szlavik,has accesstotheentourage

foreignministers washeldon5NovemberinAngola, andanew roundofdialoguewiththearmedgroups isscheduled totakeplaceinNairobisoon.TheEast African Communityisalsoacceleratingthe deploymentofa regional force.

To jugglethesedifferentimperatives, Tshisekedi relies onahandfulofpeoplewithinhis government, cabinetandsecurityservices. Underpressureon themilitaryfrontandina deadlockonthediplomaticfront,healsohasto deal withthe factthathis entourageadvocatesa varietyofstrategiclines, with somecalling forafirmstancewhileothers wouldlike tomaintainanactivechannelofdiscussionwithKigali behindthescenes.

of PresidentJoeBiden, theUSStateDepartment and Congress. Szlavik regularlybriefsMuyaya onthe evolutionof Washington’s position.

ChristopheLutundula

As the deputyprime minister for foreign affairs,Christophe Lutundulamanages the diplomaticfront.When hespokeon25May 2022atthe AU meeting inMalabo, Lutundula wasoneofthefirstto

(2)

directlyquestion Rwanda’s involvementwithM23. CitingMuyaya’s “suspicionsthatarecrystallisingaround Rwanda”, he accused“M23,supported by Rwanda”ofhaving attacked theRumangabo militarycamp.Sincethen, Lutundulahasincreased hismediaappearances andpleadedwiththehead ofstatetomaintainan offensivelinetowards Kigali.Heistheauthor ofsomeof Tshisekedi’s speeches.

PRESIDENCE

RDC

THESPECIAL ENVOYTOTHE PRESIDENT

Serge Tshibangu

(3)

Tshisekedi’s special representative hassteadilyimposed himselfattheheart ofthe latter’s diplomatic apparatus As thelinchpinoftheNairobi process, he playeda central role inthestrategic shiftthat led the DRC to holda round table withseveral armed groups, tothe detrimentof a bilateraldialogue with M23.

Tshibangu, who speaks both SwahiliandEnglish, regularly serves asanemissaryto certainpresidents, notablyin Kenya,andalsoacts as a translatorduring bilateralmeetings between Tshisekediand some ofhis English-speaking counterparts. Henow accompanies the Congolese headofstateon mostof his trips tothe sub-regionandalsopleads fora firm linetobemaintained.

THEGENERALS

Christian Tshiwewe Songesha (4)

Appointed armed forces chiefofstaffon 3 October, Tshiwewe isoneofthe soldiers inwhom Tshisekedi places histrust within anarmy thatis reputed tobetoocloseto former President Kabila.

While hispromotion isinlinewith Tshisekedi’s takeover ofthearmy, there are concernsaboutthis formerheadofthe Republican Guard’s lack of experienceon thefront line. He will workwith General

MarcelMbangu,the new head ofthe third defence zone(North Kivu, SouthKivu,Ituri, Maniemaand Tshopo), who replaces Philémon Yav after thelatter was arrested for treason inSeptember.

FranckNtumba (5)

Although Tshiwewe’s successorasheadof the RepublicGuard is not directlyincharge ofthe M23 dossier, this former military intelligenceofficer exerts a lot of influence over Tshisekedi.Several sources say General

Ntumbaisone ofthe mastermindsbehind themilitary command overhaulcarried out inOctober.

FortunatBiselele (6)

A closefriendof Tshisekedi,Biselele wasa member oftheintelligenceservices of RCD-Goma, a rebellion that Rwandasupported inthe early2000s. Heargues fora less offensive linethanthatcurrently adopted When, atthe beginningof his term inoffice, the Presidentpushed for closerties with Paul Kagame, ‘Bifort’played the role of a shadow emissary.

RolandKashwantale Chihoza (7)

Kashwantale’s namehas beencirculating for several months in successiontalks linked to Tshisekedi’s formersecurityadviser, François Beya, who was arrested in February for “plotting” against the president. Thepresidential clan trustshim completely. As headofthe Direction Générale deMigration, Kashwantale hasbeen a

discreet mediatorwith the Rwandanspymasters, both for theintelligence services and military intelligence Tshisekedi has alsocalled onhimtosettle disputes between advisers onthe M23issue, such as between Serge Tshibangu and Claude Ibalanky

Jean-HervéMbelu Biosha

(8)

Thespy chief, whohas faced pushback overthe

‘Beya affair’– his services led to Beya’s arrest – is neverthelessa member of the president’s crisis managementsystem.In mid-September, he went to Paris fora meeting organised by the Direction Générale de laSécurité Extérieure with Rwandan andUgandan intelligenceofficials. He is also followingthemediation efforts led by Angola’s PresidentJoão Lourenço

By HATEMMATAR

The re centimprovementincrude oilproductionisanencouraging sign forLibya,butanyhopes that thestrife-stickencountrycan takefulladvantageofEurope’s current de sperate ne ed forenergy amidstthedisruptioncause dby theRussia-Ukraine warmight be far-fetched.

Despite apoliticalgridlock, withtworival adminisrations stillvying forpower, Libya hasin re centmonthsincrease dits crude oilproduction.It reache d1.163m barrelsperday(bpd)inOctober –the highestinAfrica.

The increaseallayed lingering concernsintheWest, afterseveral monthsof ashockingblockade thatalmostbroughtproductionto astandstill.Militiasallied toone oftherivalcampshadbesiege d oilinstallations,demanding a shareofrevenue s.

Changeatthetop

Thecrisis wasresolved inJuly, whenthe Tripoli-basedgovernmentofInterim PrimeMinister AbdulHamidDbeibah replaced theheadofLibya’s NationalOil Corporation(NOC) –the veteran MustafaSanalla –with Farhat Bengdara(seepage128).

The move appease dthe eastern camp,whichiswhereparliament isbase dandwhereField Marshal KhalifaHaftarwields power, and pave dthe wayforthe re sumption ofcrudeproduction.However, maintainingthecurrent levelof

productionischallengingasthe politicalturmoildrags on –let alonefurtherboostingitand openingnewmarketsinEurope.

Libya washopingthatthe presidentialandparliamentary elections that were slate dfor December2021 wouldbring back asenseofnormalitynot seensince aNATO-led military campaign depose dautocratic le aderMuammarGaddafi in201 1, usheringinyearsofcivil strife.

When theelections failed to materialisedueto legalwrangling, Dbeibah,whosegovernment isinternationally re cognised, refuse dtocedepower. The eastbase dparliamentthenpicke d formerinterior minister Fathi Bashaghaasa rival interim prime minister,increasingthe de adlock.

“Overthepast fewyears,Libya hasshownthat,intheabsence ofmajorviolentconflict,and despitepersistentinstitutional divisions,itcanstill keep total oilproductionofaround 1.0-1.1 millionbpd,”Riccardo Fabiani, NorthAfricaprojectdirector for theInternationalCrisisGroup (ICG),told The Africa Report in lateNovember.

Fabianisays theoutputislikely tobesustainableintheshortto

$21.5bn

AmountLibyasaysitgeneratedfromoil andgasexportsin2021 –itshighest figuresince2016.

mediumterm, “astheNOCisable toinvestinmaintenanceoperationsand regularlypay itssalaries andsuppliers”.

Even so, in the long term, “there aresomemajorissue srelate d totheverylimite dinvestment in upstreamexplorationtoadd [tothe] newproductioncapacity thathastakenplace overthepast 11 ye ars”, Fabianisays.Thereis a“ne ed formorestabilityand inve stmenttobringtotal outputat le ast back uptoitspre-201 1level of 1.7million bpd”,headds.

Thebigfreeze

Libya remainsunabletoaccess itssovereign we althfund,which hasbeenfrozen by international sanctionssince201 1. Worth $56bnin 2010(se ebelow),the assetswerevalue dat$68.4bn by accountantsatDeloittein2019 LibyanInvestment Authority chairmanAliMahmoudHassan says takingadvantageofthe current opportunitie sare “contingentuponLibya’s stability” (se epage126).

TheNOC’snew chief,B engdara, says he planstoincre ase daily production toup to 2million barrelsof oilinthree to five ye ars –a targetsomecritics have dismissed as overlyambitious.

“I amscepticalthat,without a politicalagreementandinstitutional reunification, Libya will beabletogobeyondthe current level[…]andthereisa riskthat thiscouldgradually de crease inthenext fewyearswithout

significantupstreaminvestment andnewpartnershipswith foreign companies,” Fabianisays.

Libya istargetingsuchpartnerships.Inlate October,B engdara reve aled anagre ementwithItalian energycompanyEniandBritain’s BPto “startdrillingandproducing gasintheMediterranean”.

ThefieldfromwhichEniandBP wouldextractnaturalgasis even biggerthanEgypt’sgiantoffshore fieldofZohr,B engdarasaidinan interview withSkyNews Arabia inNovember.Eniwillalsoinvest $8bnto developnaturalgasfields in WesternLibya,withthecountry expecting$35bn-$37bninoil revenuethis year,hesaid.

AnewZohr…ornot Thereare severalquestion marksarounddrillinginLibya’s offshorezone,saysViktor Katona, leadcrudeanalystatdataand analyticsfirmKpler:“Barringthe TripolitanianBasin,whichhastwo offshoreprojects,theotherparts oftheseaare under-appraisedand untapped,”he says

“Sothe idea thatanother Zohr is waitingthereatthebottomof Libya’s territorialwatersis by no means aguarante e, andmuchof therhetoricspinningthe explorationdriveofENI/BPisvery premature. Secondly,evenifthere isanythinginthere, itis likely tobenatural gas.Mostprobably it wouldendupinItaly,whichis seekingtodiversifyitssource sof gasasithasno nucle ar re course option,”saysKatona

2mbpd

TheNationaOilCorporation’stargetfor rampingupdailyoilproductionover thenextthree-to-fiveyears.

InOctober,local Libyanreports saidthecountry wasalsoconsideringbuilding anew gaspipeline toGreece. It wouldrunparallelto theGreenstream,which goes from We sternLibya to the Italianisland ofSicily.

The reports quote doilandgas ministerMohame dAoun saying itcould take betwe en four andsix monthstocompletethepipeline. Thistargethasalsobeen de eme d unrealisticbycritics,eventhough it raised hopes thatLibya could

benefitfromEurope’s growing ne ed forgasinthewinter.

In2020,Libya’s naturalgas exportsamounted to 4.87bncubic metres,accordingtodataprovider Statista.Thatisfarbehindthe continent’s topexporter, Algeria, which exported about40bncubic metres in the sameyear. In July of 2021,Algeria signed severaldeals withItaly worthatotalof$4bn toincre aseitsgassupply to the European country by around40%.

“Libya’s productionis veryhard toincreaseinthecurrentpolitical context,whichisnotconduciveto foreigninvestment,” says theICG’s Fabiani.“Intheshortrun,Libya is morelikelyto focusonmaintaining existingoilandgasproduction levels,ratherthan rapidly ramping upoutputand exports.”

Companiesownedbythesovereign wealthfund,suchasOilInvest, whichcontrolsrefineriesinEurope

USbonds, including Treasury

TheLibyanInvestmentAuthority(LIA),isa Libyansovereignfundthatmanagesmore than68billionUSDwithin adiversified investmentportfolioin avarietyofgeographical locations.TheLIAisconsideredtobethelargest sovereignwealthfundinAfrica,Itmanagesa real-estateportfolioamountingtoapproximately 11billionUSD,andismainlyinvestedinfinancial instruments,whichincludebonds,equitiesand alternativeinvestmentsamountingtoabout20 billionUSDandfinallywithdepositsexceeding 33billionUSD.

TheLIAhasallocatedover 7billionUSDofits investmentsinAfrica.Theportfolioisinvestedinthe hotelandrealestatesector,oilandgassectorin additiontotheagriculturalsector.Theseinvestments canbefoundin avarietyofcountriesandlocations inAfrica.

SincethebeginningoftheLibyanrevolution in2011,theSecurityCouncilissued ResolutionNo.(1971,1973)which concernsthefreezingofassetsownedbythe LibyanInvestmentAuthority,themainpurpose ofwhichwastheprotectionsaidassetsand topreservethewealthofLibyanpeople,until stabilityinLibyahasreachedsatisfactor ylevels.

Duringthisperiod,theLibyanInvestmentAuthority launchedthetransformationstrategy,italso launched asetofinitiatives,withthehelpofwellknownindependentinternationalcompanies,it restructureditsoperationalprocessestowards implementinggovernanceandtransparencyit alsoconducted acomprehensiveevaluationofall itsassetsacrosstheglobe,andlaunchedaudit proceduresonitsaccounts.

TheLIAisgoingthroughmanychallengesthathaveaffecteditsabilityinmanagingitsassets

1Thesanctionshave negativelyaffectedtheLIA, asdirectresultofassets freezeandtheharshinterpretation ofthesanctionregime,LIA bankaccountswereexposedto negativeinterestrates,inaddition mostofthebondsmaturedandthe LIAwasunfortunatelyunableto reinvestthem.

2

LIAisexposedtotherisks ofseizureofitsassetsin somecountries,asafter theLibyanrevolutionlegaldisputes emergedbetweeninstitutionsofthe Libyanstateandoutsideinvestors,

demandingtheLibyangovernment topaycompensation,someof thesepartiesobtaincourtrulings, andtheytriedtoseizeLIAassets inlieuofcompensation,whichis consideredtobe agreatriskto LIAassetsthatisindependentof theLibyangovernmentandhasno relationtoanyforeignobligations ordebtsonthestate. 3

Manycountriestook advantageofthecritical situationinLibyaandtried topressuretheLibyanInvestment Authoritytouseitsfundsabroad topayoffthedebtsoftheLibyan state.

Despitethesedifficultcircumstances,theLibyanInvestment Authorityhasdeveloped atailormadeinvestment strategyaimedtocreatediversifiedinvestmentsin away thatdoesnotconflictwithanyinternationalresolutions,through whichwillachievethefollowing:

-Facilitatingimportantrelationshipswithstrategicpartnersby engagingthemindeveloping existinginvestmentsinAfrica. SincetheLIAhas avastreal estate\hospitalityportfolioina varietyofimportantstrategic location,inthehopeofpromotingandachieving acompetitive advantageintheAfricanmarket.

-Restructuringitsoilinvestments inAfricaandEurope,inorder

tograduallyshiftintothearena ofrenewableenergyandgreen investments.

-Enteringintolocaldevelopment projectsworth 3billionUSD, inseveralsectors,including infrastructure,energyandthe servicesector.TheLIAhopesto achievethecompletionofthese projectsviathelocalsubsidiariesandstrategicinternational partner

FROM FACULTYTO SOVEREIGNFUND MANAGER

2002 Beganacareer asanacademic,later becomingDeanofthe FacultyofBusiness Administration, UniversityofSirt.

2009 PhDinFinancial Managementfromthe ArabAcademyfor FinancialServices, Amman,Jordan.

2009-2017 Careerin finance,includingas CEOofLibyan CompanyforFinance andLeasing.

2017 Appointed ChairmanandChief ExecutiveoftheLibyan InvestmentAuthority

LIA

By SHERIFTAREK

The Libyan Investment Authority (LIA),which reportstothe GovernmentofNationalUnity (GNU)in Tripoli, hasbeensubject toanassetfreeze since2011. Currentlyruled by two rival goverrnments, Libya hasbeenunable tohold an electiontobreak the political deadlock.

The GNU appointed Dr. Ali Mahmoud Hassanaschairmanand chief executive oftheLIAin2017. Ithasn’t beenan easyfive years. In 2020 he was challenged by pretenderstohisjobtitle, with a London courtrulingthathe was indeed the legitimatechairman ofthe LIA, andinJanuary2022 Belgiumissued anarrest warrant overthe disappearance of €2bn($19.4bn)from Euroclear bank. Hassan denies wrongdoing, and shrugs offmedia reports claiming that hehasbeenat odds with theGNU.*

INTERVIEW

TAR:The value of LIA’s portfolio in2019 wasestimated at $68.4bn. How have these figures changed?

ALIMAHMOUDHASSAN: It was $67bnaccording toour2013 estimates, and$68.4bn by theend of2019 based onthe reevaluation conducted by Deloitte In2021, the investment value reached $71bn. Theincrease was mainlydueto a risein the valueofour stock portfolio, which includes shares in 84listed companies.

Are there short or long-term targetstoincreaseLIA’s investment value?

As you know,the authority ’s assetshave beenfrozen,but we have adopteda three-yearstrategy bases onthree axes. Thefirst isto boosttrustthroughpractices of the higheststandards in termsoftransparency, disclosure, andclosing anddraftingbudgets Thesecond iscapacity-building by developinghuman resources, processes,

policies and regulations. Thethird is developing investment We’re lookingto get the[UNSecurity Council’s] sanctionscommittee to amend the resolutionsso that we canmanage some of ourfrozen investments Meanwhile, we seekto develop theLIA’s contributiontothe rebuildingofLibya through projects that pay offboth financially and economically.

What are thelargest sectorsthat LIAinvestsin,particularlyin Africa?

Aroundthe world, we have around$12bn worthof real- estate investments, concentrated in the hotelsector. We have alsoinvested heavilyinoilmarketing. InAfrica, theseinvestmentsare in South Africa,Madagascar, Mali,Ghana, Côted’Ivoire, Senegal, Niger, Burkina Faso, andmostofthe Arab countries, especially Egypt. More than 80% of our real-estate investmentsare inAfrica.InAfrica, we have parcels oflandandagriculturalprojectsthathave not yet been puttouse, so we’re considering strategic partnerships with other companies from Africannationsso that they canmanage theseprojects Africahasthelargest portion ofthefund’s investments(55%), followed by Europe(33.2%), Asia(9.3%), and NorthandSouth America (2.4%),asper the evaluationconducted by Deloitte.

How might theauthority support theLibyan economy during the country’s politicalpolarisation?

TheLIA is anindependent wealth fund that is owned by allLibyans. TheLIA can playa major role in rebuildingLibya and attracting foreigninvestors to theLibyan market by providingguarantees or partnershipopportunities.

CouldLibya could hold anelection withoutviolence in thenear future, in youropinion?

I think there is a big chancethat that mighthappen soon,because thetwo parties agree on one thing: that theonlysolutionistohold an election.This isalsotheconvictionofthe Libyan people. More than2 million voters registered to cast ballots [in the cancelled 2021 election]. This is a strongindicator that thepublic wants anelection,as does the internationalcommunity

When the Tripoli-based government signed memoramdums ofunderstanding aboutgas with Turkey, several countries, includingEgypt, cameoutsaying they hadno legitimacy. How does thecontroversy over which governmentis legitimateaffect the workofthe LIA?

Theinternationalcommunity, includingtheUNSupport MissioninLibya (UNSMIL),has beenhelpingLibya prepare for anelection,and there is a clear roadmap We’re observing the

Libya cancontributetotheglobal balanceofsupplyand demand in natural gas Ithaslarge gas reverses thathave not yet been tapped. Extraction,transport, and marketingcosts would becheapas a resultofLibya’s strategic location ontheMediterranean,and its gas fieldsare all close toEuropean shores. Theongoingconflict between Russia andUkrainemakes this a great opportunity, but it is contingent upon Libya’s stability.

Whatisthe legal responseofthe LIAtotheinternationalarrest warrantissued against you by Belgium?

Thisis extortionpractised by Prince Laurentof Belgium.Hehas a casewiththeLibyan agricultural ministry, and the arbitrationhas ruled that theministrypays him approximately €50m($48.5m), buthecouldn’thave thisruling executed andthus wentafterthe LIA’s frozenfundsabroad. The Libyan government is trying tosettle the matter with Prince Laurent, butso far there have been no results

There werereports last year that your relationshipwith AbdulHamid Dbeibah,theGNU premier, was turbulent. Can you elaborate andtell us how your relationship is withhim now?

situationandhoping fora stable Libya sothat we can run our domestic businesses andhelp the governmentdiversifyitssources of revenue. ButtheLIAhasnothing to do withpolitics.

Shouldthe worldwide naturalgas shortages intensify, do youthink theinternationalcommunitywill paymoreattentiontotheLibyan situationinordertounlockmore gas exports,particularly for Europeanmarkets?

There were absolutelynodisagreementslast year: thesemedia reportsare driven by a certain agenda.Whetherin the past ornow, we actas anindependent wealth fundand directly dealwiththe head of the government, who provides support for the authorityduring thesetough times. He is alsothe headofthe LIA board oftrustees, whichincludes thecentralbank governor, the economy minister, the financeminister, andthe planning minister, amongothers.

*All responses have been edited for brevity and clarity

‘MORETHAN 80%OFOUR REAL-ESTATE IN VESTMENTS AREIN AFRICA’

BLACKGOLD

Who is Libya’s new oil boss?

By MAHERHAJBI

“The National Oil Company will remainoutside allpersonal and politicalrivalries,” stated Farhat Bengdara soonafter hisappointment on14 July Hehas good reasontoclaimhisimmunity, for Bengdara trailsbehindhim a wake ofdivided loyalties.

Hailing from Benghazi,the stronghold of easternagitator Field MarshalKhalifa Haftar, Bengdara is reputed tobecloseto ColonelGaddafi’s formermilitary group, but alsototheUnited Arab Emirates, where he was director of Al MasrafBank.

Hisappointment is said to be the result of a secretagreement between HaftarandLibyan Prime MinisterAbdulHamidDbeibah Withthe countrycurrently fought over by rival governments, Haftar wantstopreserve the easternLibyan camp’s share oftheoilwindfall.

Under the former regimeof Muammar Gaddafi, Bengdara

was oneofthe CentralBank of Libya (CBL)’s key operatives. In 11 yearsof loyal service, heclimbed thehierarchy. FromCBL deputy governorfrom2000to2006, he was thenplaced by Gaddafi’s son, Saif al-Islam,atthe head ofthe financialinstitution.

A few weeks after the 2011 revoltagainstMuammarGaddafi, Bengdara lefthispost This “financierof the regime” headed to Turkey He was the focusof speculation overGaddafi’sfortune and thefreezingofthe family’s assets.

Islamistmeaculpa Bengdara needed tochange his image, andsohe got closerto theIslamists. In 2011, hepraised their role in the Gaddafi regime’s collapse: “TheIslamists have abandoned the takfirist ideology.”

Havingmade hisamendsonboth sides, Bengdara’s assumptionof officeattheNOC was marred by a protocolmishap Hispredecessor, Mustafa Sanalla, refused to give up

hispost and was deposed by armed men loyal toDbeibah

To avoid any confrontation withthe Libyan tribes, Bengdara hasplayed his company’s “social responsibility ” card.Hesays he is ready to implementtribal demands intermsofhealth,environmental andagriculturalservices.

As formermemberofthe Supreme Petroleum Council,the NOC chiefis working to resurrect theplansketched out by Shukri Ghanem, the formerLibyan primeministerandoilministry chief (2006 -2009),whodied in 2012. Withsomeadjustments – notablymore transparency–Bengdara wantsto double productionto2mbarrels perday.

While he praises theLibyan workforce, for whom he has pledgeda salaryincrease, Libya’s new oilbossisalsocounting on internationalpartners. Butthe exploitationofthecontinent’s mostabundant reserves isunder scrutiny. US Ambassadorto Tripoli Richard Norland said in August he was “deeply concerned” about a possibleescalationoftensions, calling for theNOC’s “politicaland

AVIS D’EXPERT

LibyanInvestmentAuthorityas catalyst for Libyan development

TheSovereignWealth Funds (SWF)playa strategic roleinEmerging Economics. In our experience,theyusually actas astabilizerto diversifytheemergingcountry'smoney by investingin otherareas,andas catalysts for economicdevelopment.

TheratificationoftheSantiagoprinciples dated 2008grant SWF’soperationsmore clarity,asthoseprinciplespromotetransparency,goodgovernanceandaccountability

TheLibyanInvestmentAuthorityhasmade significantprogressinthe 2022Global SWF reportwith a60%scoreforGovernance, Sustainabilityand Resilience, rankingthem 35thout of 100 Sovereign Wealth Funds. TheLibyanInvestmentAuthorityset-up a strongtransformationjourneyandisactively

preparingonall aspects (Operatingmodel, Human Resources,Finance…)to beableto manageitsportfoliotomorrow onceunfrozenforthebenefits of the Libyan people. Nevertheless,theLibyanInvestmentauthorityhasdevelopedaninvestmentstrategyaimed atattractingstrategicpartners by engagingthemindevelopingits existing investmentsinthe Africancontinent

Like theSovereign Wealth Fundsinthe PersianGulfstates,theLibyanInvestment Authoritywillbeone of thekey players tomorrowforthediversificationofLibya's economy toget out of oildependence.Depending on thestrategicvision of thecountry,theLibyan InvestmentAuthoritywillsteerinvestments towardsotherindustriesinLibya suchasrenewables,newtechnologiesandservices

EY &Associés

TourFirst,1place des Saisons, TSA14444, 92037

Paris-LaDéfense cedex, France

E-mail :christian.mion@fr.ey.com moez.ajmi@fr.ey.com www.ey.com

ChristianMION

Emerging market (“EYprimary teamservingLIA”)

Moez AJMI Partner,EYFrance, Emergingmarket (“EYprimary teamservingLIA”)

AchrafGuermech Partner,EYTunisia (“EYprimary teamservingLIA”)

MohamedMehdiZidi Partner,EYTunisia (“EYprimary teamservingLIA”)

EAST AFRICA’S GROU NDHOG DAY

YANNGWET

Cameroon-bornjournalistbasedinKigali,authorof Vousavezditretour? (EditionsPrésenceAfricaine,2022), exploringexperiencesofreturningtothecontinent

4July1994.Rwandan PatrioticFront(RPF) militaryforces, ledbyPaul Kagame,seize Rwanda’s capitalKigali.The Rwandanarmy, whichhadjustcommittedgenocide against the Tutsi,was defeated. Apanicked Rwandan population,includingtheHutu Interahamwe militia, wentinto exile. Allthese lovelypeople settled inhugeUNcampsinGoma,DRC Fed,housedandwhitewashedbytheinternationalcommunity,the genocidaires continuedtosow deathupon Rwandafrom Goma. Tiredofglobalindifference,theRPF armycrossedtheborderin1996 toeradicate these forces,who were later reunitedunderthe Forces DémocratiquesdeLibérationdu Rwanda (FDLR)banner, startingthefirst Congowar Itsspectrecontinuestohaunt relationsbetweentheDRCand Rwanda morethan 25 yearslater.Reports frominternationalorganisations pointtoanalliancebetweenthe Congolesearmy(Forces Armées dela RépublicDémocratique duCongo;FARDC)andthe FDLRaspartofthe FARDC’s operationsagainsttheM23rebels (themselves accused of receiving support fromKigali).

Kagame’s provocative30November remarksuggestingDRCPresident Tshisekedi

wasinstrumentalisingthe Rwandanissuein theupcomingpresidentialcampaign was highlightedbythemedia,whomissedthe rest ofhisspeech(“PeaceinEastern Congomeans peace forus”,etc.)and Kagame’sallusionto theongoing existentialthreattheFDLRposes.

Butthemessage wasclear:ifheneeded to (ashedid26years ago), Kagame woulduse wartoimposepeace.Thepointofno return seemedstrangelyclose.

Wa sitc ro sse dafew da ys later by Tshisekedi,whotoldcivilsociety leaders“it isthe Rwandan regime,headedbyKagame, thatistheenemyofCongo”,addingthat Rwandans were notenemies,but“brothers whoneed oursolidaritytoridusandAfrica ofthiskindofbackwardleadership”?

The1996 warled to the overthrow of Zaire (nowDRC)’sMobutuSeseSekoandtheinstallationofJoseph-DésiréKabila, aRwandanally inthe waragainstthe genocidaires andtheir institutionalallies.Butthehoneymoonwith Kabila wasshort-lived.Hewantedtoshakeoff the Rwandans’cumbersometutelage, which Rwanda wouldnotaccept.Lackingthemilitary capacitytoimposehiswill, Kabilasetup avast militarycoalitionwithAngola,Zimbabwe and armedmilitias,includingtheinfamousFDLR TheSecondCongoWar beganin1998and involved at leastnineAfricancountries and dozensofarmedgroups,allengaged inthe wholesaleplunderingofCongo’sresources.

The earlyclose relationshipbetweenpresidents TshisekediandKagame saw multiple goodwill gestures andcooperationagreements. Again,thehoneymoon wasshort-lived.Again, the breakwith Rwanda onthe Congoleseside seemstohave takenthe formof an alliance withthe remainsoftheFDLR.Acoalition again hasbootson Congolesesoil.Thistime it’s anEast African Communityinitiativeto “imposepeace”–toquoteKenyanpresident Ruto, whosecountryisthelargestcontributor ofmentothe regionalforce.Kenya hasbecome amajor economicplayerintheDRC. Ishistory repeatingitself?