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THE AFRICA REPORT 

The

N° 107 • APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

In this issue:

PROFILE Ramaphosa’s agenda

QUARTERLY EDITION • N° 107 • APRIL - MAI - JUNE 2019

DEBATE Is Magufuli’s economic nationalism working? INVESTIGATION Nigeria’s OPL 245 net widens DOSSIERS Bayelsa, East Africa, Logistics

most influential Africans

A constellation of the celebrated: barrier-busting business folk and power players on the continent. From the stars of the moment to those imagining Africa’s tomorrow JEUNE AFRIQUE MEDIA GROUP

INTERNATIONAL EDITION

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EDITORIAL

SIGNS OF AN AFRICAN SPRING By PATRICK SMITH editorial@theafricareport.com The mobilisation of hundreds of thousands of young people on streets across the continent demanding economic and political rights challenges traditional oppositionists as much as incumbent regimes. In each case, the demonstrators in Algiers, Bamenda, Harare, Kampala, Khartoum and Kinshasa are taking on systems of vested interests and dysfunctional politics that are holding them back. They are calling for sweeping change, not just different party colours in the presidency. Even in South Africa and Nigeria or countries where politics seems quiescent or dominated by competition between ideologically identical parties, these new movements send important messages. First is that the economic downturn has exposed the jobless growth of Africa’s boom years. The demographic reality of the world’s youngest continent means this issue will dominate African politics for the next three decades. Although most policymakers talk of structural reform, very few have a strategy and can implement it. Second, when regimes try to reform after years of stasis, they are at their weakest point. They have neither the legitimacy nor the resources to change the policy course. The protesters’ grievances run the gamut

of economic and social demands. The main targets are the spiral in youth unemployment, stagnant economies held prisoner by international commodity markets, together with deteriorating provision of education and training – a key ingredient to revive dynamism. Activists are finding new ways to organise and avoid the attentions of the police. They have brought together students, professionals, and trade unionists of all ages – even feuding family members – into a sprawling movement. Innovation is key to the organisational power of the new groups. Activists in Algeria are using WhatsApp groups of football fans to mobilise support. It worked. On the evening of 3 March, hundreds of thousands marched through the streets to call on President Abdelaziz Bouteflika to refrain from standing for a fifth mandate in April’s elections. In Sudan and Zimbabwe, the governments have tried to shut down services like WhatsApp, so activists use virtual private networks to share information and send messages to the outside world. All this has prompted easy comparisons with the rebellions that swept across North Africa in 2011. The protest movements in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia started that way, so the argument goes, but ended in a new autocracy, bloody chaos or frustration and disappointment. There are parallels between today and 2011 but more importantly there are lessons. Above all, demonstrate in peace, is the message circulating relentlessly among activists in Algeria and Sudan. Many hope the form of the demonstrations themselves, heterogenous with a strong, sometimes majority, participation by women, can shape the political transitions. This may prove the hardest task: for a popular movement to take on the responsibilities and limitations of political power without betraying its supporters.

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

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CHAIRMAN AND FOUNDER BÉCHIR BEN YAHMED

Ramaphosa is working on his image as ‘an enigma’

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PUBLISHER DANIELLE BEN YAHMED publisher@theafricareport.com EXECUTIVE PUBLISHER YVES BIYAH EDITOR IN CHIEF PATRICK SMITH MANAGING EDITOR NICHOLAS NORBROOK editorial@theafricareport.com ASSOCIATE EDITOR MARSHALL VAN VALEN PRODUCTION EDITOR OHENEBA AMA NTI OSEI To find the full editorial team, all our correspondents, and much more on our new digital platform, please visit: www.theafricareport.com SALES A JUSTE TITRE

03 EDITORIAL 06 MAILBAG 08 COFFEE WITH THE AFRICA REPORT / Bob Collymore 10 THE QUESTION 12 Q2 / April 14 Q2 / May 18 Q2 / June

63 EAST AFRICA FOCUS Policymakers are not yet looking at the many concerns of business and ordinary citizens in order to avoid the pitfalls that have hobbled other integration projects

FEATURES 22 PROFILE / Ramaphosa’s destiny Ahead of 8 May’s general elections The Africa Report talks to close contacts of the president over the years to build a picture of the man who says he can get South Africa out of its current mess

86 100 MOST INFLUENTIAL AFRICANS The Africa Report’s inaugural ranking of the top Africans who control the levers of power across politics, business and the arts: from billionaire barons to unpredictable peacemakers and soft-power superstars

122 INSIDE BAYELSA New projects are taking root in the Nigerian state after years of despoliation

36 INVESTIGATION / Nigeria’s billion-dollar oil scandal An investigation in Nigeria has turned into the country’s biggest corporate bribery case, with nine executives from Eni and Shell now on trial in Milan

146 LOGISTICS DOSSIER

48 WIDE ANGLE / The youth wave

Ethiopia has high hopes for exports, and has made improving logistics a priority

Sudan street protests, Bobi Wine, #FeesMustFall and #NotTooYoungToRun – a demographic tide is pushing back against outdated politicians, so how long before the bulwark crumbles?

56 DEBATE / Is Magufuli’s economic nationalism working? The threat of a $190bn tax bill became a $300m payment. The Africa Report looks into whether the Tanzanian government’s barnstorming style will revolutionise the economy or scare away investors

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THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

156 ART & LIFE African designers are in the limelight when Black Hollywood stars choose their labels for red carpet ceremonies

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MAILBAG

Introducing a more technical curriculum doesn’t do enough to address the root cause of the failing education system, as technology alone won’t fix our public schools [‘Yemi Osinbajo: Selling our crown jewels isn’t the solution’, TAR106 Dec./Jan. 2019]. What ails our educational system ranges from poverty in early childhood to underfunded districts and poorly designed incentives for an overburdened faculty, all of which feeds the unequal access to quality education for the teeming population of schoolage children. Recruiting more qualified teachers into service requires more funding than the sector currently gets. The proposed reform of the school curriculum will level the playing field of access, but level fields do not necessarily translate to improved player skills, which is the entire point of education. Maryam Bello, Ibadan, Nigeria

62 COUNTRY FOCUS | NIGERIA

NIGERIA’S OBY RAISES CRUCIAL QUESTIONS

Obiageli ‘Oby’ Ezekwesili

Presidential candidate, Allied Congress Party of Nigeria

The old order has delivered misery

STEPHEN LOVEKIN/SHUTTER/SIPA

THE POINT OF EDUCATION

For all your comments, suggestions and queries, please write to: The Editor, The Africa Report, 57bis rue d’Auteuil Paris 75016 - France or editorial@theafricareport.com

The Nigerian presidential candidate talks to The Africa Report about the education crisis and the need for the politics of ideas rather than personality

B

lunt-speaking and a passionate advocate for women’s r ights, Obiageli ‘Oby’ Ezekwesili has launched a groundbreaking run for the presidency, which looks like a logical stepin her professional and political career. Standing for the small Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN), she is shaking up the election by running a grassroots campaign with a dedicated band of young volunteer helpers. Oby, as she is widely known in Nigeria, should not be underestimated as a campaigner. What she lacks in establishment backers and corporate donors, she could make up for in her own enthusiasm and that of her young supporters. She shot to global fame as one of the founders of the #BringBackOurGirls campaign in 2014 demanding

that the government of Goodluck Jonathan find and rescue the more than 270 schoolgirls kidnapped from Chibok in Borno State by the Islamist Boko Haram militia. Oby and Hadiza Bala Usman, co-founder of the campaign, used social media to get the message around the world, and even US First Lady Michelle Obama was

“I would do a much better job than [Atiku] because government is not monolithic” pictured on social media brandishing a #BringBackOurGirls placard. That campaign was a major reason why Jonathan lost the 2015 election. An accountant by training, with amaster’sinpublicadministration from Harvard University, Oby has worked on development projects THE AFRICA REPORT

DOUBTFUL DOUBLING FOR MAURITIUS

for much of her career. She joined then-president Olusegun Obasanjo’s government in 1999 as head of its Budget Monitoring Unit, where she earned the sobriquet ‘Madame Due Process.’ She later served as minister of mines and then of education before leaving government to join the World Bank as vice-president for Africa. Oby is a fiercely independent campaigner. At the launching of the now governing All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2013, she warned its members that they should stand for more than chasing the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) out of power. But she is also critical of Atiku Abubakar, the PDP’s presidential candidate, with whom she clashed in government. She tells The Africa Report that Atiku did “everything to undermine due process” when he was in government. N ° 10 6

D E C E M B E R 2 018 - J A N U A R Y 2 019

Mauritius is keen to double the size of its financial sector in 12 years, but how will it find the growth strategies to achieve its dream in today’s global economic turmoil? [‘Mauritius: Offshore on the radar’, TAR105 Nov. 2018]. Various forecasts against a backdrop of new US government measures to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium have resulted in Turkey’s currency significantly

Oby not only has the educational qualification, she also has enough professional experience to be president [‘Obiageli ‘Oby’ Ezekwesili: The old order has delivered misery’, TAR106 Dec./Jan. 2019]. It is sad that Oby was not seen as a major contender. Instead, Nigerians were focused on two men who have been in power before and have shown that they have nothing to offer. Is it because Nigerians cannot yet wrap their heads around a female president? Lucia Edafioka, Feminist and brand communications manager, Nigeria

losing its value. Four countries – Egypt, Jordan, Argentina and Barbados – have suffered from high debt and deficits. Will Mauritius be successful in its expansion of its financial sector with new international investments when the general global economic outlook seems negative? Kokil Shah, Kenya

HELL BREAKS LOOSE IN ZIMBABWE It surely never rains in Zimbabwe. President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s

attempts to turn the economy around are yet to bear fruit [‘Zimbabwe 2019 Country Report’, TAR106 Dec./Jan. 2019]. Fuel shortages have loomed, doctors are going on strike, teachers are going to work twice a week and there has been a sharp increase in the prices of basic goods and services. New uncorrupt blood is needed, human rights laws need to be respected and in a nutshell, a new government is needed. Jeff K. Chakanyuka, Zimbabwe

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COFFEE WITH THE AFRICA REPORT

BOB COLLYMORE

PLATFORM BUILDER The Africa Report sits down with the retiring boss of Safaricom, Kenya’s dominant telecoms player and creator of the widely popular M-Pesa mobile-money platform By NICHOLAS NORBROOK in Nairobi “I highly recommend this lifestyle,” says Bob Collymore, sitting on the veranda of his imposing house in the affluent Nairobi suburbs. “This morning I woke up and had the 8:15am call. Then I caught up with some emails, then I have you and another media engagement after […] I don’t actually need to go to the office.” With the gentle chirrup of birdsong and the jazz radio playing in the large sitting room behind, it is hard to disagree, though the less well-organised might see their productivity suffer. “And it occurred to me,” continues Collymore, “that we all get into this funnel, to commute and get into the office by 8-9am. Whereas, I could easily do the interviews here, go into the office by midday and miss the traffic.” Nairobi is blessed with an abundance of cars, which can render the smallest commute unbearable. So it is no surprise to hear an executive plan around it. But Collymore is not being boastful about his terrific life; he has a different problem to steer

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around. Treatment for acute myeloid leukaemia has stripped his immune system of its former strength. “I’m starting over from scratch,” he says. Until it returns, he is forced to limit his interaction with people. Collymore is a ‘silver linings’ guy rather than a ‘dweller’. One of those silver linings is the ability to put more time into his music. “I do have a saxophone addiction, yes. It’s gotten worse in recent times. The saxophone shop was right across the way from the hospital in London, so I bought myself a new Conn-Selmer saxophone. And I’m very diligent. I manage to get in seven or eight hours a week.”

Collymore is not boasting about his terrific life; he has a different problem

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

That does not mean he is any less in touch with the office. The launch of Safaricom’s mobile overdraft facility, for example, has been at the forefront of his days. And he has had to fend off a recent polemic in Kenyan public life surrounding Safaricom’s dominant position. It is one of the reasons he is so sanguine about a merger between two rivals, Airtel Kenya and Telkom Kenya. “Telcom operators need to get a certain critical mass to work,” he says. “So this will create a player with 33% market share. That makes sense. For the market it makes sense, too, to have a stronger player as competition to Safaricom.” But that is not where he believes the real competition will come from. For all the kudos Safaricom won worldwide for its mobile payments platform M-Pesa, “you can pay for things with your Fitbit now,” says Collymore. And in the future, the real challengers to telephone companies like Safaricom will come from ‘big tech’: Amazon, Google, Facebook, as well as Chinese challengers like Tencent. WhatsApp has launched a payments trial in India involving tens of millions of participants. If WhatsApp gets into payments and comes to Kenya, what will Safaricom do? “We don’t get complacent about these things,” says Collymore. “For sure, we believe we need to evolve, and quickly. The thing that we have today was designed 11 years ago.” That evolution is being helped along by a strategic partnership with Vodacom, the South Africa-based telecoms company, in particular with its data capabilities. And Safaricom is looking for new revenue drivers. “The shareholders are certainly looking for this,” says Collymore. “And we think that you can bolt a few things together – e-commerce, payments and data analytics. Most people are using data to gauge whether you are a credit risk or not. But look at the Chinese, they are not looking at whether you


have money or not – they are looking at whether you are a good guy or not. They look at intent. If I know that your intent is good, then I can rent you my apartment.” That gives companies that sit on piles of information an advantage. “We have access to a pool of data, and not just our own but publicly available data, which can help us to start to profile people much better and to monetise

that by how we develop our own products for you and individualise it,” says Collymore. “But then also, how do we move into other markets which are not our legacy markets, voice and SMS. And not many operators can say that because they are just voice and SMS.” E-commerce is certainly an obvious choice – with a trusted brand, a payments platform and new logistics partner Sendy, Safaricom is stealing a march on other retailers seeking online customers. But the strategy, like big tech’s, is to be the platform, says Collymore, “whether it was for the banking industry, the healthcare industry, the agricultural industry. And we have our sights on the education sector. Look, at Amazon, it doesn’t just sell books. Google is putting balloons up in the air, it is not just a search engine.” Take, for example, DigiFarm, Safaricom’s new agricultural initiative. The company will be able to give loans to a smallholder, source cheap inputs from iProcure – an agricultural start-up Safaricom invested in – deliver the latest agronomic expertise by phone, and then

Investing $100 at the start of Collymore’s reign would deliver tenfold returns today

connect the smallholder to specific off-takers. All of this is in the Safaricom ecosystem. Like all good musicians and chief executives, Collymore understands the importance of timing, for a company and for a career. He looks at the way his predecessor Michael Joseph hewed Safaricom out of the stubborn potential of the market. His own tenure – which comes to an end in August 2019 – has been about consolidation and profitable pivots to M-Pesa and data: investing $100 in the company when he began would have seen that money grow nearly tenfold.

-MAR

JEAN R R TA

U FO C PA

And he is clear that the company needs a successor with yet another set of skills, as the chapter of the ‘ubiquitous platform’ begins. “I have never been a good mergers and acquisitions person, but we will need someone who can spot a deal and grab it,” concludes Collymore. “[We need] someone who understands the financial sector a lot more, if we are to occupy the fintech space, and someone who is not going to be scared of going into other markets.” Collymore says he is leaving with few regrets: a small number of missed opportunities and a regretted comment or two about the quality of Kenyan food, or about whether Kenyans trusted Safaricom more than the church. His greatest triumph? The team he has assembled. “Finish your tea,” he says. “Let me just go get an injection pumped into me, and I will be back.”

N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

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theafricareport

100 www.theafricareport.com

The

N° 107 • APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

In this issue

PROFILE Ramaphosa’s agenda

DEBATE Is Magufuli’s economic nationalism working? INVESTIGATION Nigeria’s OPL 245 net widens DOSSIERS Bayelsa, East Africa, Logistics JEUNE AFRIQUE MEDIA GROUP

most influential Africans

A constellation of the celebrated: barrier-busting business folk and power players on the continent. From the stars of the moment to those imagining Africa's tomorrow

After 15 years of award-winning journalism, we are widening our horizons with an all-new digital edition; bringing you the inside stories on top business and political developments in Africa. Join our community of premium readers, to get access to cuttingedge content, events, and to our veteran editorial team. Whether you are a digital start-up CEO, a banker, or briefing the boss, you will find the analysis and context you need.

GENERALE EDITION

Algeria 610 DA • Belgium €7.90 • Canada CA$ 12 • Denmark 80 DK • Ethiopia 200 Birr • France €7.90 • Germany €7.90 • Ghana GH¢ 35 • Kenya KES 900 • Morocco 45 DH • Netherlands €7.90 • Nigeria 2000 NGN • Norway NK 95 • Rwanda RWF 7,500 • Sierra Leone LE 67,000 • South Africa R75 (tax incl.) • Sweden SEK 100 • Switzerland 10.90 FS • Tanzania TZS 20,000 • Tunisia 15 DT • Uganda UGX 30,000 • UK £7.2 • United States US$ 15.99 • Zambia 80 ZMW • Zimbabwe US$ 6.20 • CFA Countries 3,900 F.CFA • Euro Zone €7.90

visit www.theafricareport.com


DANIEL HAYDUK/AFP

Features

22 PROFILE Ramaphosa’s destiny Does the formula that is Cyril Ramaphosa add up for South Africa? Contacts of the president help to build a picture of the man who says he can get the country out of its current mess

36 INVESTIGATION How Dan Etete’s billiondollar deal ended up in court An investigation in Nigeria has turned into the country’s biggest corporate bribery case, with nine executives from Eni and Royal Dutch Shell now on trial in Milan

48 WIDE ANGLE The youth wave Sudan street protests, Bobi Wine, #FeesMustFall: A demographic tide is pushing back against outdated politicians, so how long before the bulwark crumbles?

56 DEBATE Is Magufuli’s economic nationalism working? The threat of a $190bn tax bill became a $300m payment. The Africa Report looks into whether the Tanzanian government’s barnstorming style will scare away investors

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

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FEATURES /

Ramaphosa is working on his image as ‘an enigma’

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THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019


PROFILE

Ramaphosa’s destiny Does the formula that is Cyril Ramaphosa add up for South Africa? Ahead of 8 May’s general elections The Africa Report talks to close contacts of the president over the years to build a picture of the man who says he can get the country out of its current mess

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

MOELETSI MABE/SUNDAY TIMES/GALLO IMAGES/GETTY IMAGES

By CRYSTAL ORDERSON in Cape Town and Johannesburg

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FEATURES /

INVESTIGATION

How Dan Etete’s billiondollar deal ended up in court An investigation in Nigeria has turned into the country’s biggest corporate bribery case. Nine executives from Eni and Royal Dutch Shell, and Nigerian officials, face charges in Milan over how they won control of a rich oil block 36

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

By HONORÉ BANDA in Abuja and PATRICK SMITH in Yenagoa On a biting cold day in Milan in January, Ibrahim Ahmed, a Nigerian investigator, and Colonel Alessandro Ferri of Italy’s financial police, hustle into the city’s imposing, marbleclad palace of justice. Ahmed is in Milan to explain to prosecutors Fabio de Pasquale and


GIUSEPPE CACACE/AFP

Sergio Spadaro what Nigeria’s Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) discovered when it started to investigate the award of one of the richest oil blocks in Africa to an obscure company called Malabu Oil & Gas in April 1998, which had been incorporated just five days earlier. After chatting to local police, Ahmed is shown into the court. A tall, slender figure in

a dark suit, he expertly guides De Pasquale through the sheaves of documents about the disputes over ownership of Malabu and the oil block OPL 245. The story takes in more than 20 years of deal making and politics in Nigeria. It started in the era of military rule; now Italy’s Eni and Royal Dutch Shell face charges of corruption in the race to secure rights to the contested oil block.

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

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FEATURES /

The youth

WIDE ANGLE

Sudan street protests, Bobi Wine, #FeesMustFall and #NotTooYoungToRun: A demographic tide is pushing back against outdated politicians, so how long before the bulwark crumbles?

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THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

By NAMATA SERUMAGA-MUSISI in Accra, JOSEPH BURITE in Kampala, CARIEN DU PLESSIS in Johannesburg, EROMO EGBEJULE in Lagos and BILLIE MCTERNAN Since the end of December 2018, the streets of Khartoum, Sudan’s capital, have been in a state of unrest. Protests – initially against a tripling of the price of bread but now more widely against President Omar al-Bashir’s


wave

term said they would indefinitely postpone a meeting to draft the changes. And on 1 March the president delegated his position as head of the ruling party to its deputy chairman, Ahmed Harun. A dangerous combination of a lack of job opportunities, poor economic growth, a growing youth demographic and an authoritarian government have pushed a generation of people with decades of life ahead of them to the limit. According to the African Development Bank, more than 200 million of the continent’s 1.2 billion people are aged between 15-24, and that number is set to rise to 321 million by 2030. Sudan’s youth-led protest movement is one of several around the continent. Some coalesce around a figurehead; others around a cause. But – as was seen with the Arab Spring movements of 2011 – when and if they reach a tipping point depends on the various and complex circumstances of each country: the structure and health of its politics, the quality of youth leaders and the individual choices of millions and millions of young Africans

government – have sent tremors across the country. Bashir, who seized power in a military coup in 1989 and has ruled Sudan ever since, has declared a year-long state of emergency, replacing all state governors with military officials. However, there are signs that his grip may be weakening: on 16 February lawmakers tasked with amending Sudan’s constitution so that he could run for another

Bobi Wine went into politics to amplify the issues he was singing about and get youth actively involved

ROBIN LETELLIER/SIPA

Protest, disengage or leave

Africa is no exception to the rule that young people are less likely to be engaged with traditional politics than their older peers. While opinion polls (see page 54) show that young Africans discuss politics to the same extent, a lower percentage of them vote and a higher percentage participate in protests. But frustrations about poor public services and a lack of jobs can equally contribute to apathy or a desire to leave the country in search of brighter prospects somewhere else. As recent events in Sudan and Uganda show, countries that have autocratic governments and few jobs for young people have the hardest time engaging with youth. Thirty-seven-year-old Robert ‘Bobi Wine’ Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, a musician and member of parliament for Kyadondo East in Kampala, wants to represent this youth demographic fed up with the 33-year rule of President Yoweri Museveni. In November 2018, he was in Accra to attend the 2018 All Africa Music Awards but offstage he addressed a gathering of supporters and listeners at Mmofra Park. Kyagulanyi engages the crowd, some of whom took part in the worldwide protests that erupted when he and more than 30 others were abducted and brutalised by the Ugandan armed forces

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FEATURES /

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THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019


Is Magufuli’s economic nationalism working? The threat of a $190bn tax bill became a $300m payment. The Africa Report looks into whether the Tanzanian government’s barnstorming style will revolutionise the economy or scare away investors

President John Magufuli has a trademark ‘us against the world’ message

DANIEL HAYDUK/AFP

By NICHOLAS NORBROOK There was a certain optimism when John Magufuli became president in 2015. Here was a man, as the early skirmishes on social media revealed, who was not afraid to get his hands dirty to get things done: surprise visits on hospitals and government offices to reveal who was slacking off work; a push for discipline and austerity in public office; and an anti-corruption drive known as ‘lance the boils’. Even some of his most trenchant critics – like opposition politician Zitto Kabwe – say that Magufuli is making progress. Kabwe tells The Africa Report: Magufuli is doing the “right thing, but in the wrong way.” What is this ‘right thing’? At its core it concerns the role of government, the mediator between the interests of capital on the

one hand, and citizens on the other. “Let us stand as one. Tanzania belongs to us all and we should put interests of the country first,” Magufuli told parliament in 2015. It is also a political fault line of our time. And Magufuli has certainly changed the rules of the game in Tanzania. Passed in 2017, the Natural Wealth and Resources Contracts law allows officials to trawl back through two decades’ worth of contracts to see if any of the terms are unfavourable to the government. Equinor, which has invested more than $2bn in developing Block 2 off the coast, says that the production-sharing agreement it has with the government is still valid, but has been unable to get any further in negotiations over building a $30bn gas plant in Lindi. Other legislation pushed the royalty rate on gold from 4% to 6%, gave the government 16% of the stock of mining companies and

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US$ 3.9 BILLION

1.1 MILLION

INVESTED IN TRADE AND PROJECT FINANCE

JOBS CREATED

TRANSFORMING AND INTEGRATING THE REGION’S ECONOMIES By providing different types of financing,TDB fosters trade, regional economic integration and sustainable development, prioritizing projects with cross-border impact.

www.tdbgroup.org


FOCUS /

EAST AFRICA

EAC

The East African Community was formed two decades ago, but rivalry and diverging national interests threaten to curb progress

The trade ties that bind

The region has a long agenda for cooperation in the years ahead, but policymakers are not yet looking at the many concerns of business and ordinary citizens in order to avoid the pitfalls that have hobbled other integration projects THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

63


The

100

most influential The Africa Report’s inaugural ranking of the top Africans who control the levers of power across politics, business and the arts: from billionaire barons to unpredictable peacemakers and soft-power superstars

By ALISON CULLIFORD, OLIVIA KONOTEY-AHULU, NICHOLAS NORBROOK, OHENEBA AMA NTI OSEI and MARSHALL VAN VALEN 86

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The Africa Report is transitioning to a quarterly magazine with a special focus on the decision makers, the money takers and the thought shakers who are not only in the spotlight for their skills and strategies today but will continue to be so for years to come. Our 2019 ranking is based on three criteria: global reach (40%), trajectory (30%) and influence (30%).


00 Africans Global reach takes into account how many countries their activities touch and how well known they are. Trajectory is defined to capture people whose careers are on the up and those involved in crucial industries of tomorrow, like manufacturing, fintech and the creative sectors. And finally, influence is measured as to how much their voices matter in local

and global debates, and how much they are able to change the political, economic and cultural playing fields. The names that follow – including a Nobel Peace Prize winner, officials helping to run global institutions, a highly sought-after architect and billionaires with hotly awaited stock IPOs – are examples of the heights

of African leadership in the world, both at home and in the diaspora. They are coming up with innovations to spur financial inclusion and leapfrog technological stages, tackling climate change and human rights abuses in Africa and across the world, and telling heartbreaking and beautifully imagined stories that make the world a richer place.

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THE 100 MOST INFLUENTIAL AFRICANS /

Aliko Dangote

Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie

Money talks

The sun keeps rising PLANET PIX/ZUMA-REA

Nigeria

1

He’s the richest black man in the world and Africa’s richest man, with an estimated wealth of $10.3bn. Within Nigeria, Senator Ben-Murray Bruce called him “more influential and powerful than (President Muhammadu) Buhari”. The billionaire’s latest project is a $10.5bn oil refinery that will be Africa’s largest, so Dangote will not be sitting on the sidelines when it comes to oilsector reform debates there. He is investing in the continent’s manufacturing and agribusiness capacity, and plans to launch the long-awaited London IPO of Dangote Cement in late 2019. Meanwhile, his philanthropy is taking flight.

Elon Musk

Rocket man

South Africa

2

The yo-yoing of his company shares, his hirings and firings and off-the-wall tweets keep Musk in the headlines. He may be a maverick but his ideas are shaping the future, from reducing global warming with his electric cars to urban transportation on a cushion of air and plans to establish a colony on Mars. His Boring Company could help a boom in urban public transportation, and he is a big pessimist about the impact of AI. He donates to both the Democratic and Republican parties in the US, saying it is necessary to pay up in order to have a voice.

Koos Bekker

Go-getter in Asia South Africa

3

When China-based Tencent sneezed in August 2018, Naspers share price caught a cold. It didn’t last long, but it showed how tied the fortunes of the South African media and entertainment behemoth are to its largest holding (Naspers owns 31% of the Chinese internet giant). Buying a stake in Tencent in 2001 makes Bekker the Buffett of Africa: the initial $32m investment has grown to $116bn since then, and Bekker famously waived a salary to get paid in stock options when he was CEO. With the bulk of South African pension funds invested heavily in Naspers and allegations of Gupta-style influencing in a 2017 broadcasting deal, Bekker said the company would work on its transparency at the 2018 annual general meeting.

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Nigeria

The Nigerian author-cum-public intellectual continues her stratospheric ascent and is as often seen behind a mic as in print these days – engaging audiences about racism, sexism and the human condition. She started the year 2018 slaying a French journalist for her lack of knowledge about Nigeria and ended it on stage with former US first lady Michelle Obama. Who’s next?


Business

4

Entertainer

Power player

Disruptor

Trevor Noah

Mic wrecker

South Africa

7

Davido

Naija pop idol Nigeria

S. DAWSON/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY

He has riches (he’s worth $16m), good looks, fast cars and political clout. Using his music to inspire Nigerians to vote in the 2019 elections, he also lent his star appeal to presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar’s campaign, seriously upstaging the 72-year-old politician. His next act will be to crack the tough US market, with his eyes set on a gig at Madison Square Garden, having filled the 15,000-seat O2 Arena in London in January.

Tidjane Thiam

Master strategist Côte d’Ivoire

6 STEPHEN VOSS/REDUX-REA

TAYLOR HILL/WIREIMAGE/GETTY

5

One of the US’s most prominent voices critiquing the presidency of Donald Trump, Noah has brought millennial-inspired thinking and an astute outsider’s view to The Daily Show and taught some Americans that Africa is not a country. With the renewal of his contract in 2017 his job is secure until 2022, which will carry him through the febrile US election season. He is also quite funny.

Thiam’s turnaround of Credit Suisse since 2016 has left bankers and analysts awestruck. Ignoring naysayers, the Ivorian CEO relegated the derivatives traders and recast the bank as a wealth-management operation focusing on emerging markets. He explained his view to Euromoney: “This is a fabulous bank. Or let me be more precise: it has always had a fabulous bank within it.” But it faces big blowback for its role in the Mozambique tuna bond scandal.

Enoch Adeboye Sacred networker Nigeria

8

In 2017 Pastor Adeboye’s resignation from leading his five-million-member church in Nigeria was greeted with dismay by congregations around the country. Nigeria’s highest-profile pastor, who numbers the Nigerian vice-president Yemi Osinbajo among his followers, had to step down from running the domestic operations of the church he had built up almost from scratch after a new law put a 20-year cap and 70-yearold age limit on the leadership of non-profit organisations. Adeboye could have argued that The Redeemed Christian Church of God was not, strictly speaking, “non-profit”, with Forbes quoting the net worth of the man born into poverty at €39m, but he chose not to.

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LOGISTICS DOSSIER

Landlocked

blues

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Ethiopia has high hopes for manufacturing and exports, but the country will not be competitive until it solves its logistical problems. To that end, the state is starting to liberalise the sector

Hawassa Industrial Park is a flagship facility for the textile industry

NICHOLE SOBECKI/VII/REDUX-REA

By TOM GARDNER in Addis Ababa In January, it emerged that Ethiopian exports had once again disappointed, undershooting the government’s six-month target of $1.96bn by nearly 40%. It was a sobering reminder that, for all Ethiopia’s rapid, state-led growth over the past decade, exports have consistently shown few signs of improvement. “Logistics is the number-one bugbear for anyone in exports and manufacturing,” says Graham Parrott, head of strategy at Ethiopia Investments Limited, which invests in local businesses. His words are echoed by many exporters, who say this challenge is rivalled only by the shortage of foreign exchange. The figures are telling. To trans­ port a 20ft container of garments from Ethiopia to Germany costs 247% more than from Vietnam and 72% more than from Bangladesh. In 2016, Ethiopia scored 2.37 in the World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index – significantly lower than neighbouring Uganda, which is also landlocked. The country ranked 159th out of 190 in the World Bank’s Doing Business index in 2018; Uganda came 127th. In key export sectors, such as textiles, speed is essential to competitiveness. Slow and expensive imports, meanwhile, are bad for all businesses. According to Daniel Zemichael, chief executive

of Freighters International, a local logistics company, goods take an average of 20-30 days to reach an Ethiopian customer from the port in neighbouring Djibouti. A 20ft container costs an average of $2,660 to import from its source to Ethiopia. “This is probably one of the most expensive corridors in the world,” says Serge Tiran of Massida Group, another logistics firm.

Mojo rising

The government has made improving logistics a priority. A $2.5bn, 750km railway connecting Addis Ababa with the port in Djibouti launched last year and should cut a three-day journey down to 12 hours. In an ambitious road-building programme flagship projects include a 200km expressway connecting Hawassa, home to the country’s largest industrial park, with the capital. Two years ago, the government signed a $150m World Bank project to transform Mojo, a poorly equipped and heavily congested dry port near Addis Ababa that processes more than 70% of imported containers, into a state-ofthe-art logistics facility. Meanwhile, Addis is helping a Dutch consortium, Flying Swans, to set up a cold chain along the railway to the coast. With the appointment of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed last April, logistics reform shifted up a gear. The new administration’s roadmap,

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ART & LIFE FASHION

Red-carpet

raves African designers are thrust into the limelight when Hollywood stars shine in their lines. As orders flood in from around the world, they must be ready to up production quotas and ride the rollercoaster of Instagram success

By KATIA DANSOKO TOURÉ for Jeune Afrique Guests at the American Music Awards last October were already hyped to see what host Tracee Ellis Ross would be wearing – in 2017, the actress and daughter of Diana Ross made a spectacular 11 wardrobe changes in the course of the evening. This time she only changed 10 times, but she made even more of a statement: every one of her outfits was by a black designer. The most sensational was a majestic mermaid dress with double bell sleeves and ruffles to the floor, its “scales” shimmering in a blue and red wax print. The dress was by Claude Lavie Kameni, a Cameroonian-born designer and founder of the brand LavieByCK. Kameni, who had already made waves by dressing Janet Jackson in a wax print crinoline for the music video of her single Made

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for Now, posted a photo of the mermaid dress on Instagram and got 32,000 likes. A few snaps later, the 24-year-old designer finally published the information everyone was waiting for: “The dress that @traceeellisross fell in love with was from our 2017 fall collection” and “This gown will be available to pre-order on Sunday!!” Ten days later, it was already sold out while the designer sourced new shipments of the now iconic fabric. Over the past decade, particularly with the explosion of social media, a designer’s reputation can be made overnight. Celebrity stylists now have access to a world of fashion way beyond the big names in couture and can seek talent from anywhere in the world – including the African continent. Black Hollywood stars have seized the opportunity to do more with their looks than


GARETH CATTERMOLE/GETTY IMAGES FOR VOGUE AND THE DUBAI MALL

Designer Alexis Temomanin’s Dent de Man is among African labels chosen by Black Hollywood stars at awards and premieres


SELORM (JAY) ATTIKPO/FULLISH ART FOR TAR

DAY IN THE LIFE

MOSHOOD BALOGUN in Accra I was born in Lagos in 1981. I got all of my formal education in the same city. Unfortunately, I did not get to complete my university education because I got into a series of troubles with the authorities and I eventually had to leave. My mother provided me with some money, and I travelled to Denmark in 2002. Over there, I got into a relationship with a Danish woman and lived with her for close to a year. We’d made plans to get married, but she betrayed me one day; she called the police on me and had me deported. Back in Nigeria, I reunited with my family: my parents, my children and their mother. Me and her are divorced now. We have five children in total. Two have passed. The eldest was born in the year 2000, on the ninth of July. In 2007, when my then wife was pregnant with our last child, I was involved in a very serious accident. I was seated behind a friend on a motorbike and […]

Searching for the right path Adebayo Hammed Ajibade’s passions and hopes have kept him going through lifechanging moments I don’t even know how the accident happened, but my friend lost his life in it. I came out of it with a broken leg. Although my life was spared, a lifelong dream of mine was killed. I could no longer play football. It had always been my dream to be a footballer. My father spent a lot of his money in pursuit of this dream of mine. After a few years, when things were not going so well in my life, my mother suggested once again

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that I travel elsewhere. So I came to Ghana in 2013. In my very early days here, I was robbed. My bag, which contained the little money I had, my passport and a few other essentials, was stolen. I had to hustle to get back on my feet. I sold pure water in traffic – dusters, too. And then I got into working as a labourer, but the work was so hard. I reasoned that I’d die young if I continued with it. So I stopped. For a while, I had nothing to do. Until a fellow Nigerian living here in Ghana introduced me to selling books in traffic. I choose to sell solely African books because I’m proud to be African. These books I sell help me manage myself quite well financially. I get them from a wholesaler with whom I split the profits after I’ve sold the books. I’ve suffered a lot, and things are still not easy. But I thank God for my life because when there is life, there is hope. My dream now is to be a musician because I believe I’ve got a message to deliver. I just pray to God to point the right path for me soon.


Profile for The Africa Report

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