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Friday, December 9, 2022 • B3
THE GARDEN ISLAND
GIMME SHELTER
Fewer homes being built as builders pull back
will start to recover in 2024, and that mortgage rates will ease back from current levLOS ANGELES — Homeels to a range between 4.5 percent and 6 percent by builders have pumped the 2025. brakes on new single-family The average rate on a 30home construction this year, year mortgage fell for the a trend that’s likely to exfourth week in a row this tend into 2023, according to week to 6.33 percent, acseveral forecasts. Single-family housing cording to Freddie Mac. A starts were running at a seayear ago it was 3.1 percent. Reichardt at BTIG causonally adjusted annual pace of about 1.16 million tions against drawing paralproperties in January, when lels between the last the average rate on a 30housing slump and this one, year mortgage hovered benoting that in October the inventory of both previlow 4 percent. By October, starts had slowed to a seaously occupied homes and new-construction propersonally adjusted annual pace of 855,000, as long-term ties is about half of what it mortgage rates climbed was in October 2005, just afabove 7 percent for the first ter the historical peak in time in two decades, crushhousing starts overall. As such, Reichardt exing many would-be homebuyers’ purchasing power. pects the housing market The slowdown has sinwill avoid a “negative feedgle-family housing starts set back loop” where lower to fall for the first time in 11 prices cause more forced years, with another pullback home sales and increase inlikely in 2023. ventory -- as long as there’s Carl Reichardt, a homeisn’t a significant increase in job losses. building analyst at BTIG, Still, he’s expecting a 40 forecasts that single-family percent drop in homebuildhousing starts will drop GENE J. PUSKAR / ASSOCIATED PRESS FILE about 11 percent this year ers’ earnings per share next and double that in 2023, be- Houses under construction are seen in Mars, Pa., on May, 27, 2022. Homebuilders have pumped the brakes year due to the housing slowdown. on new single-family home construction this year, a trend that’s likely to extend into 2023, according to sevfore climbing 5 percent in Homebuilder stocks are 2024. eral forecasts. already down sharply this A homebuilding industry percent in 2023 and 2024, re- to housing demand continu- struction had risen steadily forecast released this week “Now we’re getting a cor- year as the housing slump by Fitch Ratings has a simisince 2012, before surging spectively. ing to weaken,” Robert rection,” said Robert Dietz, deepened. But Reichardt reduring the first two years of chief economist at the Na“We expect 2023 to be a Rulla, senior director at lar outlook, calling for a 10 cently raised his stock price challenging year for U.S. Fitch Ratings wrote in the re- the pandemic as ultra-low percent in single-family tional Association of Home targets and has “Buy” ratmortgage rates fueled dehousing starts this year and homebuilders as persistent port. Builders. ings on D.R. Horton, Lennar declines of 13 percent and 5 affordability issues will lead He predicts homebuilding and PulteGroup. Single-family home conmand. Alex Veiga ASSOCIATED PRESS
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Average long-term mortgage rate falls a fourth straight week ASSOCIATED PRESS
APR
* APR
WASHINGTON — The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate fell for the fourth consecutive week and have dropped more than three-quarters of a point since hitting a 20-year high last month. * APR=Annual Percentage Rate. Federally insured by NCUA. Advertised rate based Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac reon credit scores of 750+ and a 12-month lending period. Rates are subject to change ported Thursday that the average on the benchmark 30-year rate dipped to 6.33 percent from 6.49 percent last week. A year ago the average rate was 3.1 percent. The average long-term rate sat at 7.08 percent in early November, but has since had the steepest 4-week decline since 2008. “While the decline in rates has been large, homebuyer sentiment remains low with no major positive reaction in purchase demand to these lower rates,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. Mortgage rates are still more than double what they were a year ago, mirroring a sharp rise in the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. The yield is influenced by a variety of factors, including global de* APR=Annual Percentage Rate. Federally insured by NCUA. Advertised rate based mand for U.S. Treasurys and investor expectations for future on credit scores of 750+ and a 12-month lending period. Rates are subject to change inflation, which heighten the prospect of rising interest rates overall. The Federal Reserve, which has been hiking its short-term lending rate since March in a bid to crush the highest inflation in decades, raised its rate again early this month by 0.75 percentage points, three times its usual margin, for a fourth time this year. Its key rate * APR=Annual Percentage Rate. Federally insured by NCUA. Advertised rate based now stands in a range of 3.75 peron credit scores of 750+ and a 12-month lending period. Rates are subject to change cent to 4 percent.
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