Will TDP win 2019 elections in AP?

Will TDP win 2019 elections in AP?

Considering the current context, Chandrababu Naidu have more chances of forming the government again.

Lets understand the strengths of each party Congress AP has been the strongest base for congress since independence and had a considerable percentage of core voter base in the state. But it has lost its credibility after the state bifurcation and are no more in the picture. They have lost in all constituencies in 2014 elections and it will be wonder if they can win double digit seats in 2019.

BJP The people of AP are anguish on BJP for utterly disregarding the promises made and denying the special status for the state which they have promised and announced in their manifesto.

Chandrababu is also successful to some extent in conveying the slow down of development activities due to BJP’s non-cooperation and consistent ignoration of the demands. Any party allying with BJP will have to face the grave consequences of loosing the elections.

YSRCP YSRCP has a strong voter base in the mass and there are enormous ardent followers of the late YSR who will support YSRCP. They lost election in 2014 with a mere 2% votes. Considering the 5 years of TDP govt incumbency, there will be a dissatiscfaction among the people for what ever the reasons apart from Special Status and other issues affecting the voting percentage of TDP .

Jagan’s padayatra has been successful so far and the anti TDP votes have been accumulating towards YSRCP. He had more chances of winning 2019 elections until Pawan Kalyan came into

picture.

JanaSena Pawan Kalyan has a strong following among the youth. He might not get a majority but can be influential in deciding the CM of the state. I believe he is going to reiterate the role of Chiranjeevi in 2004 elections. Chiranjeevi has splitted the anti-Congress votes among PRP and TDP and Congress has been the major beneficiary out of his political entry. TDP lost in more than 30 constituencies with a mere 2000+ votes which would have won if PRP was in-existent.

Let me give an example. Assume 70% votes have been polled. 30% voted for Congress and 40% for TDP, TDP will win. Now Chiranjeevi has started the party. Same 30% voted for Congress, 15% for PRP, 25% for TDP. Congress wins. The voter base for Congress remains same but Chiranjeevi has splitted the anti-votes of the ruling party.

I believe the same is going to repeat with Pawan Kalyan’s entry. He will definitely split the antivotes of the ruling party and this time it will favor TDP.

Edit: One of the chances of Jagan winning the elections is to have a back door deal with BJP, go to jail temporarily just before elections on one of the cases he was accused, showcasing BJP and TDP are responsible for his imprisonment, create a sympathy wave among the people and pull the votes.

TDP

Chandrababu Naidu has a great stature among the educated and the urban demography. People believe him for his hardwork and past achievements in bringing reforms in Administration.

People were able to observe the Modi’s current Swach Bharath, Digital India programs in 1990s in the name of Janmabhoomi(Clean and Green), E-Seva(Online Govt Services) and bringing administration to the people with Prajala vaddaku Palana.

In his current tenure he was successful in

interlinking Krishna and Godavari 24x7 power supply Realtime Governance monitoring Handling Hudhud cyclone Convincing farmers to voluntarity give 33000 acres of land for the Construction of Capital City which has been the largest land pooling in the history of India First state in India to start Single Window policy for investments First Make in India product produced in AP Stood in top 10 cleanest cities Completion of Solar Electricity Plant in 4000 acres.

Acheiving 36 Gram Panchayats in top ten 82 villages in India and many more.

People still believe him as the messaih who can get the state out of mess. If he does not ally with any party before the elections and the current politics continues, I strongly believe he has the better chances of winning 2019 elections in AP.