Page 1

Fourth Quarter — November 2016

HOUSING FORECAST BC HOME SALES TO MODERATE IN 2017 Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are on pace to reach a record 113,800 units this year, an increase of 11 per cent compared to 2015. Many regional markets have performed exceptionally well over the second half of the year, largely offsetting more moderate demand in Metro Vancouver. However, it is unlikely that BC housing markets will repeat this year’s performance. Moderating economic conditions and policy headwinds are expected to slow housing demand by 15 per cent to 96,300 units next year. The BC economy has been a bright light in the country. Economic output is projected to increase 3.5 per cent this year, the third consecutive year that the economy will expand at a rate of 3 per cent or more and the strongest sustained rate of growth in a decade. A key catalyst in the economy has been employment growth. Over the first ten months of the year, more than 70,000 jobs were created in the province, boosting total employment by over 3 per cent. Relative strength in the economy is also largely responsible for a marked increase in the number of migrants from other provinces, particularly younger households from Alberta. While these strong fundamentals are expected to underpin housing demand in 2017, their rate of growth is expected to slow, leading to more moderate growth in consumption. Policy headwinds will be a negative influence on the BC housing market in 2017, especially in Metro Vancouver where a 15 per cent tax on foreign nationals curbs that market segment. This combined with the third tier of the Property Transfer Tax (PTT) applying an incremental 3 per cent tax on the purchase of homes priced over $2 million will likely moderate demand at the high end of the market. First-time and other low-equity home buyers will also be constrained by higher mortgage qualification requirements that could pull as much as 20 per cent of the purchasing power from this vital buyer group. Market conditions are expected to trend toward greater balance in the face of moderating demand and rising new home completions. While the average MLS® residential price is forecast to decline 6.4 per cent to $645,000 in 2017, most of that change will be due to relatively fewer higher priced homes selling in highly populated regions, particularly Metro Vancouver.

INSIDE Economic Outlook ................................................. 2 Vancouver Island-Coast ........................................4 Lower Mainland-Southwest ...................................6 Thompson-Okanagan.............................................8 Northern BC ......................................................... 10 Kootenay ...............................................................12 Tables ....................................................................13 1


BCREA HOUSING FORECAST

November 2016

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK The BC economy continues to sit atop Canadian provinces in terms of economic growth. BC is projected to grow 3.5 per cent in 2016, the third consecutive year of growth above 3 per cent, and the strongest period of sustained economic growth since the mid-2000s. Growth has been fueled by a robust labour market which has seen employment grow at a 3 per cent pace along with a significant uptick in population growth due to a flood of interprovincial migration. Those factors, along with robust gains in household income have helped propel consumer spending in the retail sector and have driven growth in home sales around the province.

While the economy is very strong, it has not reached the heights of the mid-2000s when real GDP growth reached or exceeded 4 per cent for several consecutive years. There are perhaps two main reasons why the booming growth of today does not quite measure up to the level of the previous decade. First, the rate of sustainable growth over the long-term has declined due to the aging of BC’s workforce. While the province has more favourable demographics than much of Canada due to strong international and interprovincial migration, provincial labour force growth is still projected to slow in the coming years. That, combined with low productivity, will limit the output of goods and services in the economy to trend growth of about 2.5 per cent or as much as 0.5 per cent lower than a decade ago.

22

BC Economic Outlook

2015

2016F

2017F

Real GDP Growth (%)

3.3

3.5

2.5

Employment (millions)

2.3

2.4

2.4

Employment Growth (%) Unemployment (000s) Unemployment Rate (%) Personal Disposable Income ($billions) Personal Disposable Income Growth (%) Average Weekly Wage

1.2

3.0

1.6

149.9

145.0

143.2

6.0

5.8

5.5

154.9

163.3

170.6

6.1

5.3

4.3

914.0

923.1

933.3

Weekly Wage Growth (%)

3.6

1.0

1.1

Retail Sales ($billions)

70.3

75.0

78.9

Retails Sales Growth (%)

6.0

6.6

5.2

4.64-4.79

4.64-4.79

4.79-5.20

Range of Posted 5-year Fixed Mortgage Rate Source: BCREA Economics, Statistics Canada

Second, as a small open economy, BC relies heavily on international trade and has been a substantial beneficiary of China’s rise as an economic superpower. Indeed, current economic growth in BC is even more impressive given that global trade in 2016 is at its slowest pace since the financial crisis. The consequences of that slowdown are being felt in BC as the era of export growth boosted by Chinese demand appears to be at an end. If the current trend holds, 2016 will mark the third consecutive year of shrinking dollar volume of exports to China, our second largest trading partner. Combined with shrinking trade with Japan, merchandise exports are increasingly dependent once again on the United States.


BCREA HOUSING FORECAST

November 2016

financial stress. Mortgage arrears have trended lower while consumer bankruptcies are at their lowest level in a decade. Low interest rates have kept debt-servicing costs low and stable while a growing economy and unemployment at an eight-year low have further buttressed household financial stability.

That could be ameliorated with the ratification of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). However, the TPP is now unlikely to proceed given the sentiments of the incoming US administration. Focus may now need to be given to alternative trade negotiations to enhance economic growth. New home construction is on a record setting pace this year with a projected 43,000 starts across the province. However, since the majority of new projects are multiple family condo projects, it will be years before those starts become available as housing units. Indeed, there is a large pipeline of units under construction but relatively few completions, a fact that has exacerbated already constrained housing supply for the past year.

The BC economy is expected to post strong growth in 2017, though there are risks on the horizon. Those risks include newly enacted restrictions on mortgage lending requiring all low-equity borrowers to qualify at the five-year fixed mortgage rate. That policy will have an immediate negative impact on affordability for first-time homebuyers and could significantly undercut demand over the next 12 to 18 months. Moreover, given the policy impact is mainly on first-time buyers, developers may delay plans for new condo developments until renewed certainty returns to the market. In addition, growing protectionist sentiment in the US may embolden trade disputes. Indeed, the US lumber coalition has recently introduced another petition to the US commerce department claiming unfair practices by Canada. Without the boost from the housing and construction sector, economic growth will likely decelerate next year to 2.5 per cent.

At the same time, record low mortgage rates, surging employment growth and an increase in both international and interprovincial migration boosted consumer demand in the first half of 2016. When combined with a severely limited supply of new and resale housing, most markets across the province experienced significant price increases as demand outstripped supply. While rising home prices and low interest rates continue to push household debt burdens higher, BC households are not showing signs of

13


BCREA HOUSING FORECAST

November 2016

VANCOUVER ISLAND-COAST The Victoria, Vancouver Island and Powell River Sunshine Coast Real Estate Boards service the Vancouver Island-Coast Region of the province. Housing demand across the region has reached record levels this year. Robust demand has created some challenges around the supply of homes for sale, leading to erosion of affordability. Strong economic growth in the province has translated into rising employment levels and increased consumer confidence. After several years of relative weakness,

10 per cent in Victoria and 19 per cent across Vancouver Island this year. In addition, one out of every four public administration jobs in the province are located in the Vancouver Island-Coast region, which moderates the impact of oscillations in the business cycle. Population growth is being bolstered by a marked increase in interprovincial migration, as labour demand attracts attention from across the country. A growing number of retirees from the Lower Mainland are also choosing to cash-out and relocate to the Island. employment growth in the Victoria Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) has been particularly robust over the past year. The Vancouver Island-Coast region has diversified away from primary industries, with four out of five jobs now in the service sector. The region’s abundance of natural amenities makes it a preferred tourist destination, and the relatively weak Canadian dollar has provided an attractive incentive for international visitors. Hotel room revenues are expected to rise

Home sales through the MLS® in Victoria are forecast to reach a record of over 10,000 units this year, a 29 per cent increase over the previous year. The previous record was 8,403 unit sales in 2007. This will be the third consecutive year of rising consumer demand in the province’s capital.

24

Housing demand across the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB) region is also expected to post a


BCREA HOUSING FORECAST

record level of consumer demand this year, with a total of 10,600 unit transactions, up 27 per cent from 2015, eclipsing the previous record of 9,887 units sales 2007. Strong consumer demand has drawn down the inventory of homes for sale and the lack of supply has become a significant impediment for home buyers in many areas. Total active listings on the market are down 45 per cent in Victoria and 37 per cent across the rest of Vancouver Island. As a result, the imbalance between supply and demand has created strong sellers’ market conditions and pushed home prices notably higher. Tight supply conditions have also not gone unnoticed. New construction activity is up significantly, with multiple starts expected to climb 66 per cent to 2,200 units in Victoria this year. While the supply of newly completed and unoccupied units remains low, we expect a pull-back in housing starts next year as home builders concentrate on completing their existing projects.

November 2016

Consumer demand is expected to moderate in tandem with a general normalizing trend in the province. While record home sales have driven new construction activity higher, less robust provincial economic conditions are beginning to unfold. Total MLSÂŽ residential sales are forecast to decline 9 per cent to 9,280 units in Victoria in 2017, while across the VIREB area residential transactions are forecast to fall back 11 per cent to 9,400 units. However, this level of consumer demand is well above long-term averages and this forecast represents a return to a more sustainable level of housing demand and a less severe erosion of affordability. The average home price is forecast to increase nearly 11 per cent to $578,200 in the Victoria Real Estate Board area this year and a further 2.1 per cent $590,000 in 2017. Across the VIREB area the average home price in forecast to rise 13 per cent to $380,000 this year and a further 2.6 per cent to $394,000 in 2017.

15


BCREA HOUSING FORECAST

November 2016

LOWER MAINLAND-SOUTHWEST The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board and the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board service the Lower Mainland-Southwest region of the province. The area contributes to over 60 per cent of the housing demand in the province. The provincial economy, led by the Lower MainlandSouthwest region, has posted a strong performance this year. More intense economic activity has induced a surge in employment opportunities, with nearly 35,000 jobs added to the region over the first ten months of 2016. In addition, improving economic and employment conditions have buoyed consumer confidence, driving retail sales higher. However, recent data points to some moderation in both employment and consumer spending growth as a pull-back in housing demand begins to weigh on the local economy.

After a strong upward trend through 2015, housing demand peaked in February of this year and has trended lower ever since. This moderation was exacerbated by three government policy changes. Early this year, the provincial government implemented a third PTT tax tier of 3 per cent of the fair market value over $2 million. In August, the government then instituted a flat 15 per cent transfer tax on properties purchased by foreign nationals. And just last month, the federal government made it mandatory that a home buyer requiring mortgage insurance (less than 20 per cent down payment) must qualify at the benchmark five year rate even if they had negotiated a much lower rate. While the total impact is still unfolding in the marketplace, the pace of home sales has slowed dramatically from earlier in the year. However, policy efforts to tamp down housing demand typically bring only short-term results. Underlying demand for the region’s housing is the propelling force of population growth and demographic change. Metro Vancouver has long captured the lion’s share of immigration to the province, making net international migration the largest single component of population growth. Recently, this dynamic is being bolstered by a marked increase in interprovincial migration as weaker economic conditions in other parts of the country, particularly Alberta, drive many footloose households to BC. The Lower Mainland-Southwest is expected to welcome 35,000 to 40,000 net migrants in each of the next two years.

26


BCREA HOUSING FORECAST

November 2016

Another key driver of housing demand is demographic change. A large contingent of millennials are now entering their home buying years. While the change in federal policy has made home ownership less affordable for this buyer group, millennials will nevertheless retrench their finances and fuel a sizable number of first-time buyer transactions over the next several years.

conditions, putting less upward pressure on home prices. Indeed, detached home prices have flattened in many communities. However, attached and apartment conditions haven’t eroded as significantly as their relative affordability continues to fuel demand.

A record number of home sales are expected in Chilliwack and the Fraser Valley this year, while the REBGV area will likely post its third highest tally. The waning of housing demand since the first quarter will likely carry forward into 2017, with overall MLSÂŽresidential sales forecast to decline 17 to 21 per cent across the region next year. Less frenetic consumer demand has cooled market

Moderating consumer demand combined with an elevated level of new home construction will contribute to average home prices edging lower next year. However, most of the change is expected to derive from the high end of the market where price gains in recent years have been unsustainable. More affordable home types are expected to exhibit greater price stability. In Metro Vancouver, 56 per cent of homes sold through the MLSÂŽ over the first ten months of the year were priced below $750,000, with over 70 per cent below $1 million.

17


BCREA HOUSING FORECAST

November 2016

THOMPSON-OKANAGAN The Thompson-Okanagan region is served by the Okanagan Mainline and South Okanagan Real Estate Boards as well as the Kamloops and District Real Estate Association (KADREA). The region’s economy is becoming increasingly diversified with already vibrant agricultural and tourism sectors being fortified by health care, manufacturing and a burgeoning high-tech industry.

Source: OMREB

While the economic malaise evident in Alberta and many other Canadian provinces is having a spillover effect to the region, the number of migrants has largely recovered from a low experienced in 2012. Fewer homebuyers from Alberta, which typically account for about 15 per cent of transactions, are being offset by an increase in migrants from other parts of the province. Many Lower Mainland households reaching retirement age are choosing to relocate to the Thompson-Okanagan region to take advantage of lifestyle opportunities as well as its relative affordability.

28

Home sales climbed markedly this year as many communities experienced record levels of consumer demand. Condominium sales have been particularly brisk. In Kamloops, apartment transactions are estimated to finish the year up over 50 per cent from 2015, with townhome sales up by 34 per cent. In the South Okanagan, townhome sales are projected to rise by 45 per cent this year, while across the Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board area a 25 per cent increase is expected for all home types. Not surprisingly, market conditions tightened significantly over the first three quarters of the year, as record demand in many communities depleted both new and resale home inventories. An imbalance between supply and demand continues to be evident in the Thompson-Okanagan region and the resulting upward pressure on home prices is eroding affordability. Total active listings on the market in


BCREA HOUSING FORECAST

October were down 21 per cent in Kamloops, and 29 to 31 per cent in the Okanagan compared to the same month last year. Higher home prices combined with more restrictive mortgage qualification requirements for first-time and other low-equity home buyers is expected to temper housing demand and limit home price appreciation in 2017. MLSÂŽ residential sales are forecast to decline 16 to 17 per cent next year in the South Okanagan and Okanagan Mainline board areas, as consumer demand moves off record levels. Across the KADREA area, home sales are forecast to edge back 9 per cent over the same period. However, housing demand is expected to remain above longterm averages, with much of the existing momentum carrying forward through 2017.

November 2016

After several years of oversupply, complete and unoccupied new units have declined significantly. As a result of dwindling inventories and strong consumer demand, home builders have responded with a dramatic boost in production levels. Multiple starts are estimated to be up 76 per cent in Kamloops, 64 per cent in Penticton and 104 per cent in Kelowna. The relatively large number of units under construction is expected to limit housing starts in 2017, as capacity constraints and moderating consumer demand weigh on the sector. The average residential price is expected to rise nearly 9 to 12 per cent in the Okanagan and over 5 per cent in Kamloops area this year. However, moderating demand and rising new home completions will trend the Thompson-Okanagan markets toward more balanced conditions next year. As a result, home prices in most areas are forecast to increase near the rate of overall inflation.

19


BCREA HOUSING FORECAST

November 2016

NORTHERN BC MLSÂŽ home sales in the Northern BC region are expected to remain essentially unchanged this year. A nearly two-year long slump in commodity prices continues to weigh on the local economy and limit consumer confidence. At the aggregate level, Northern markets have maintained a rough amount of balance as demand holds steady and the supply of available housing has trended modestly lower. As a result, market conditions have held home prices at their current level.

the Lower Mainland. Conversely, markets like Terrace, Kitimat and Fort St. John have struggled for a second consecutive year and will likely remain subdued for as long as commodity prices and associated exploration activity remains depressed.

However, there is a clear demarcation between markets where mining and oil and gas are the primary economic drivers and others which have a more diversified economic base. The latter have experienced a strong recovery in housing demand this year after a difficult 2015. The areas of 100-Mile House and Williams Lake have benefited from a resurgence in consumer confidence and a marked increase in interest from buyers originating from

2 10

The Cariboo region of Northern BC has fared moderately better, helped by a recovery in the forestry sector as well as generally greater economic diversification in larger markets like Prince George. This diversification helps to smooth the kind of commodity price shock the region is grappling with. Indeed, the North East region of the province relies more heavily on the resource sector than the Cariboo and North Coast, where 15 per cent of employment is concentrated in the forestry, mining and oil and gas industries. In contrast, growing employment in the services sector along the North Coast and in growing industries like education and health services in the Cariboo are helping to reshape the local economy.


BCREA HOUSING FORECAST

While the Northern economy is expected to improve over the next year, housing demand faces several headwinds. First-time and other low equity home buyers will be constrained by higher mortgage qualification requirements that could erode as much as 20 per cent of their purchasing power. In addition, other regulatory changes to the mortgage industry and expected monetary tightening in the United States will put some upward pressure on mortgage rates next year. After remaining essentially unchanged this year, MLSÂŽ residential sales across the BC Northern Real Estate Board area are forecast to edge back 3.3 per cent to 4,100 units in 2017. Total active residential listings on the market have remained relatively unchanged over the past year. While there are notable contrasts between northern regions, overall market conditions remain in balance, with little upward pressure on home prices in most areas.

November 2016

The average MLSÂŽ residential price is expected to be virtually unchanged this year, albeit declining 0.6 per cent to $263,000. This stability is forecast to continue through 2017, with the average home price inching to $266,000, up 1.1 per cent. With prices and household incomes remaining stable, the regions affordability remains an attractive feature for young families. New home construction in the Prince George Census Agglomeration (CA) is forecast to rise this year as relatively strong consumer demand signals home builders to increase production. Total housing starts are projected to reach 325 units this year, a nearly 60 per cent increase over 2015. Capacity constraints and continuing uncertainty concerning global commodity demand are expected to limit housing starts to approximately 200 units next year.

111


BCREA HOUSING FORECAST

November 2016

KOOTENAY Housing demand in the Kootenay region has been relatively robust, despite weak economic conditions in Alberta. Home sales through the Kootenay Real Estate Board area are forecast to reach 2,850 units in 2016, a 14 per cent increase over 2015 and the highest level of consumer demand recorded since 2007.

In particular, the tourism sector continues to grow with hotel room revenues steadily rising. Moreover, while overall employment gains are being weighed down by job losses in the resource and construction sectors, there has been encouraging employment growth in smaller regional employers like professional and technical service firms, manufacturers and recreational facilities. With housing demand posting solid gains, the supply of homes for sale has started to trend lower, which briefly pushed the market into sellers’ market territory. As a result, home prices in the area are edging higher and are expected to finish the year up 1.5 per cent, to $279,500.

In addition to relatively strong local demand, the Kootenay region benefits from an influx of homebuyers from neighboring Alberta. On average, migration from Alberta accounts for 20 per cent of Kootenay home sales. That number could be even higher in 2016 as inter-provincial migration, mainly from Alberta, is on pace to surpass 20,000 people for a second straight year. The population of the Kootenay region skews older, with just under a third of residents aged 60 or over and just 10 per cent of the population aged 25 to 34. Those demographics mean that the new restrictions of mortgage qualification for high-ratio mortgages will probably have less bite than in other parts of the province and be less of a drag on the Kootenay market next year.

Although traditional drivers of the Kootenay economy, like the coal industry, have struggled from falling commodity prices and faltering global demand, other sectors have taken up the slack. 2 12

After near record sales in 2016, home sales in the Kootenay are forecast to fall 12 per cent to 2,500 units in 2017. In spite of a fall in demand, prices are projected to rise 1.6 per cent as the supply of homes for sales trends lower.


BCREA HOUSING FORECAST

November 2016

2013

2014

2015

2016F

2017F

72,936 7.8

84,049 15.2

102,517 22

113,835 11

96,345 -15.4

$537,414 4.4

$568,405 5.8

$636,600 12

$698,900 9.8

$654,200 -6.4

MLS® Dollar Volume ($billions) % change

$39.20 12.6

$47.77 21.9

$65.26 36.6

$79.56 21.9

$63.03 -20.8

Housing Starts % change

27,054 -1.5

28,356 4.8

31,452 10.9

43,000 36.7

34,700 -19.3

Single % change

8,522 2.3

9,569 12.3

10,158 6.2

12,000 18.1

10,500 -12.5

Multiple % change

18,532 -3.1

18,787 1.4

21,294 13.3

31,000 45.6

24,200 -21.9

Total Net Migration % change

33,625 37.2

43,932 30.7

33,619 -23.5

49,500 47.2

48,000 -3

Net International Migration % change

34,457 9.9

33,890 -1.6

12,148 -64.2

26,500 118.1

33,000 24.5

(832) 81.9

10,042 1307

21,471 113.8

23,000 7.1

15,000 -34.8

Range of Posted 5-year Fixed Mortgage Rate %

5.14-5.34

4.79-4.99

4.64-4.79

4.64-4.79

4.79-5.20

BC Economic Outlook

2013

2014

2015

2016F

2017F

Real GDP Growth (%)

2.1

3.2

3.3

3.5

2.5

Employment (millions)

2.27

2.28

2.31

2.38

2.42

Employment Growth (%)

0.1

0.6

1.2

3.0

1.6

159.7

146.9

149.9

145.0

143.2

Unemployment Rate (%)

6.6

6.1

6.0

5.8

5.5

Personal Disposable Income ($billions)

142

145.9

154.9

163.3

170.6

Personal Disposable Income Growth (%)

6.2

2.7

5.9

5.3

4.3

$880

$882

$914

$923

$933

3.0

0.3

3.6

1.0

1.1

$62.7

$66.4

$70.3

$75.0

$78.9

2.4

5.8

6.0

6.6

5.2

BC Housing Outlook MLS® Unit Sales % change MLS® Average Price % change

Net Interprovincial Migration % change

Unemployment (000s)

Average Weekly Wage Weekly Wage Growth (%) Retail Sales ($billions) Retails Sales Growth (%)

113


BCREA HOUSING FORECAST

November 2016

Lower Mainland/Southwest MLS® Unit Sales

2015

Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

2016F

%

2017F

%

43,145

28.1

41,700

-3.3

34,000

-18.5

Single Detached

17,375

23.6

15,100

-13.1

12,500

-17.2

Apartment

17,706

32.0

18,500

4.5

14,400

-22.2

Townhouse

7,345

28.7

7,550

2.8

6,700

-11.3

20,055

33.5

23,700

18.2

19,700

-16.9

Single Detached

11,077

36.8

12,500

12.8

10,300

-17.6

Apartment

3,046

25.3

4,150

36.2

3,600

-13.3

Townhouse

4,586

31.4

5,600

22.1

4,500

-19.6

3,138

25.6

4,300

37

3,400

-20.9

1,810

24.8

2,450

35.4

2,030

-17.1

Apartment

322

29.3

500

55.3

340

-32

Townhouse

739

28.5

1,025

38.7

850

-17.1

Fraser Valley Real Estate Board

Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board Single Detached

MLS® Average Price Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

2015

%

2016F

%

2017F

%

$

902,801

11.1

$

1,030,000

14.1

$

940,000

-8.7

Single Detached

$

1,454,277

16.8

$

1,690,000

16.2

$

1,500,000

-11.2

Apartment

$

481,399

5.0

$

551,000

14.5

$

543,000

-1.5

Townhouse

$

631,201

8.9

$

765,000

21.2

$

755,000

-1.3

Fraser Valley Real Estate Board

$

577,507

11.5

$

690,000

19.5

$

655,000

-5.1

Single Detached

$

720,788

12.1

$

938,000

30.1

$

885,000

-5.7

Apartment

$

232,976

1.9

$

261,000

12

$

257,000

-1.5

Townhouse

$

362,713

2.5

$

436,500

20.3

$

430,000

-1.5

$

335,999

8.8

$

396,000

17.9

$

410,500

3.7

Single Detached

$

377,763

8.5

$

463,000

22.6

$

475,000

2.6

Apartment

$

147,281

1.7

$

175,400

19.1

$

177,000

0.9

Townhouse

$

270,503

5.9

$

305,000

12.8

$

307,000

0.7

Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board

Housing Starts Vancouver CMA

2015

%

2016F

%

2017F

%

20,863

8.6

28,100

34.7

21,700

-22.8

4,622

5.7

5,200

12.5

4,200

-19.2

16,241

9.5

22,900

41

17,500

-23.6

Abbotsford CMA

806

61.5

1,270

57.6

820

-35.4

Single

393

56.6

520

32.3

390

-25

Mulitple

413

66.5

750

81.6

430

-42.7

631

12.9

770

22

715

-7.1

Single

298

6.4

380

27.5

340

-10.5

Mulitple

333

19.4

390

17.1

375

-3.8

Single Mulitple

Chilliwack CA

2 14

%


BCREA HOUSING FORECAST

November 2016

Va n co u ve r I sla n d / Co ast MLS® Unit Sales

2015

Victoria Real Estate Board

%

2016F

%

2017F

%

7,868

23.5

10,170

29.3

9,250

-9

Single Detached

4,587

20.1

5,900

28.6

5,400

-8.5

Apartment

2,059

26.6

2,885

40.1

2,650

-8.1

842

17.6

1,120

33

970

-13.4

8,320

15.8

10,600

27.4

9,400

-11.3

5,555

14.0

7,100

27.8

6,350

-10.6

Apartment

761

37.4

980

28.8

900

-8.2

Townhouse

532

23.4

710

33.5

650

-8.5

Powell River Sunshine Coast Real Estate Board

381

18.0

455

19.4

390

-14.3

322

25.8

375

16.5

325

-13.3

Condo

44

2.3

70

59.1

50

-28.6

Single Family Mobile

15

-37.5

10

-33.3

15

50

Townhouse Vancouver Island Real Estate Board Single Detached

Single Detached

MLS® Average Price Victoria Real Estate Board

2015

%

2016F

%

2017F

%

$

521,616

5.1

$

578,200

10.8

$

590,500

2.1

Single Detached

$

643,365

7.0

$

725,000

12.7

$

740,000

2.1

Apartment

$

326,472

0.5

$

351,000

7.5

$

358,800

2.2

Townhouse

$

422,014

1.5

$

459,000

8.8

$

467,500

1.9

$

339,835

3.4

$

384,000

13

$

394,000

2.6

Single Detached

$

381,479

5.9

$

430,000

12.7

$

438,500

2

Apartment

$

192,203

-1.8

$

206,000

7.2

$

208,000

1

Townhouse

$

247,471

-1.2

$

264,700

7

$

270,500

2.2

Powell River Sunshine Coast Real Estate Board

$

246,691

5.7

$

284,800

15.4

$

288,000

1.1

Single Detached

$

268,301

2.8

$

311,000

15.9

$

315,000

1.3

Condo

$

148,021

-10.5

$

176,500

19.2

$

180,000

2

Single Family Mobile

$

51,687

-16.4

$

60,800

17.6

$

63,000

3.6

Vancouver Island Real Estate Board

Housing Starts Victoria CMA

2015

%

2016F

%

2017F

%

2,008

52.7

3,110

54.9

2,195

-29.4

687

24.7

910

32.5

720

-20.9

1,321

72.9

2,200

66.5

1,475

-33

850

27.8

750

-11.8

690

-8

Single

384

20.8

400

4.2

390

-2.5

Mulitple

466

34.3

350

-24.9

300

-14.3

Single Mulitple Nanaimo CMA

115


BCREA HOUSING FORECAST

November 2016

Thompson Okanagan MLS® Unit Sales

2015

2016F

%

2017F

%

Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board

7,988

6.2

9,980

24.9

8,400

-15.8

Single Detached

4,291

3

5,375

25.3

4,700

-12.6

Apartment

1,356

12.3

1,700

25.4

1,470

-13.5

Townhouse

1,242

8

1,550

24.8

1,300

-16.1

2,023

15.1

2,460

21.6

2,050

-16.7

1,084

11.1

1,330

22.7

1,200

-9.8

Apartment

336

12.8

360

7.1

325

-9.7

Townhouse

242

26

350

44.6

300

-14.3

South Okanagan Real Estate Board Single Detached

Kamloops and District Real Estate Assoc.

2,574

13.9

3,145

22.2

2,870

-8.7

1,842

12.5

2,160

17.3

1,950

-9.7

Apartment

198

36.6

300

51.5

275

-8.3

Townhouse

298

10.8

400

34.2

390

-2.5

Single Detached

MLS® Average Price

2015

%

2016F

%

2017F

%

Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board

$

408,394

2.7

$

455,700

11.6

$

464,500

1.9

Single Detached

$

485,022

4.2

$

543,000

12

$

552,000

1.7

Apartment

$

248,618

5

$

277,000

11.4

$

280,000

1.1

Townhouse

$

340,323

3

$

375,000

10.2

$

378,000

0.8

$

327,243

6.1

$

355,000

8.5

$

351,000

-1.1

Single Detached

$

422,547

12.5

$

455,000

7.7

$

454,300

-0.2

Apartment

$

227,088

0.1

$

240,100

5.7

$

239,000

-0.5

Townhouse

$

266,276

14

$

276,500

3.8

$

273,000

-1.3

$

326,398

2.6

$

343,900

5.4

$

350,200

1.8

Single Detached

$

370,315

3.7

$

392,300

5.9

$

401,200

2.3

Apartment

$

189,562

-2.9

$

202,300

6.7

$

208,000

2.8

Townhouse

$

281,044

1

$

292,300

4.0

$

299,000

2.3

South Okanagan Real Estate Board

Kamloops and District Real Estate Assoc.

Housing Starts Kelowna CMA

2015

%

2016F

%

2017F

%

1,280

-2.4

1,940

51.6

1,570

Single

628

-9.6

610

-2.9

620

1.6

Mulitple

652

5.8

1,330

104

950

-28.6

253

39.8

330

30.4

300

-9.1

Single

143

-1.4

150

4.9

140

-6.7

Mulitple

110

205.6

180

63.6

160

-11.1

523

1

625

19.5

600

-4

Single

296

5.3

225

-24

250

11.1

Mulitple

227

-4.2

400

76.2

350

-12.5

Penticton CMA

Kamloops CA

2 16

%

-19.1


BCREA HOUSING FORECAST

November 2016

Kootenay MLS速 Unit Sales

2015

Kootenay Real Estate Board Single Detached

%

2016F

%

2017F

%

2,499

-1.5

2,850

14

2,500

-12.3

1,550

3.6

1,720

11

1,550

-9.9

Apartment

176

-30.7

225

27.8

175

-22.2

Townhouse

178

-3.3

200

12.4

180

-10

MLS速 Average Price

2015

Kootenay Real Estate Board

%

2016F

%

2017F

%

$

275,349

-0.9

$

279,500

1.5

$

284,000

1.6

Single Detached

$

277,911

-1.8

$

282,000

1.5

$

287,300

1.9

Apartment

$

152,589

-15.3

$

155,000

1.6

$

158,000

1.9

Townhouse

$

243,033

-8.0

$

245,000

0.8

$

251,200

2.5

Housing Starts

2015

Cranbrook CMA Single Mulitple

%

2016F

%

2017F

%

51

-40.7

95

86.3

75

-21.1

48

-44.2

70

45.8

60

-14.3

3

n/a

25

733.3

15

-40

Northern BC MLS速 Unit Sales

2015

BC Northern Real Estate Board Single Detached

0.6

$

4,100

-3.3

2,407

-8.5

$

2,520

4.7

$

2,450

-2.8

725

4.5

730

0.7

694

1

312

-16.6

$

235

-24.7

$

285

21.3

262

-18.4

$

190

-27.5

$

235

23.7

2015

%

$

264,696

1

Single Detached

$

281,283

1

House with Acreage

$

330,732

0.4

$

269,494

$

288,439

Single Detached

Housing Starts Prince George CMA

%

4,240

Single Detached

Northern Lights Area

2017F

$

Northern Lights Area

1

%

-6.5

1

Kootenay Real Estate Board

2016F

4,214

House with Acreage

MLS速 Average Price

%

2015

2016F $

%

263,000

-0.6

280,300

-0.3

$

325,000

-1.7

-4.9

$

240,100

-1.5

$

262,700

%

2016F

2017F 266,000

1.1

284,000

1.3

$

324,000

-0.3

-10.9

$

241,000

0.4

-8.9

$

283,000

7.7

%

$

%

2017F

%

204

29.1

325

59.3

200

-38.5

169

27.1

160

-5.3

130

-18.8

35

40

165

371.4

70

-57.6

83

-72.1

15

-81.9

45

200

Single

38

-32.1

10

-73.7

30

200

Mulitple

45

-81.3

5

-88.9

15

200

Single Mulitple Dawson Creek CMA

1. The former Northern Lights Real Estate Board merged with the South Okanagan Real Estate Board

117


BCREA HOUSING FORECAST

November 2016

Housing Forecast Summary — Fourth Quarter Unit Sales Board Area Victoria Vancouver Island Powell River Sunshine Coast Greater Vancouver Fraser Valley Chilliwack and District Kamloops and District Okanagan Mainline South Okanagan* Northern Lights Kootenay BC Northern BC Total

2015 7,868 23.5% 8,320 15.8% 381 18% 43,145 28.1% 20,055 33.5% 3,138 25.6% 2,574 13.9% 7,988 6.2% 2,023 15.1% 312 -16.6% 2,499 -1.5% 4,214 -6.5% 102,517 22.0%

Average MLS® Price ($)

2016F 10,170 29.3% 10,600 27.4% 455 19.4% 41,700 -3.3% 23,700 18.2% 4,300 37% 3,145 22.2% 9,980 24.9% 2,460 21.6% 235 -24.7% 2,850 14% 4,240 0.6% 113,835 11%

2017F 9,250 -9% 9,400 -11.3% 390 -14.3% 34,000 -18.5% 19,700 -16.9% 3,400 -20.9% 2,870 -8.7% 8,400 -15.8% 2,050 -16.7% 285 21.3% 2,500 -12.3% 4,100 -3.3% 96,345 -15.4%

2015 521,616 5.1% $339,835 3.4% $246,691 5.7% 902,801 11.1% $577,507 11.5% $335,999 8.8% 326,398 2.6% $408,394 2.7% $327,243 6.1% $269,494 -4.9% $275,349 -0.9% $264,696 1% 636,600 12.0%

2016F 578,200 10.8% $384,000 13% $284,800 15.4% 1,030,000 14.1% $690,000 19.5% $396,000 17.9% 343,900 5.4% $455,700 11.6% $355,000 8.5% $240,100 -10.9% $279,500 1.5% $263,000 -0.6% 698,900 9.8%

2017F 590,500 2.1% $394,000 2.6% $288,000 1.1% 940,000 -8.7% $655,000 -5.1% $410,500 3.7% 350,200 1.8% $464,500 1.9% $351,000 -1.1% $241,000 0.4% $284,000 1.6% $266,000 1.1% 654,200 -6.4%

NOTE: The Northern Lights Real Estate Board (NLREB) became part of the South Okanagan Real Estate Board (SOREB) on January 1, 2011. *Excluding Northern Lights

BCREA Economics provides timely research, analysis and information on economic factors affecting British Columbia and its housing markets. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) is the

Send questions and comments about the Housing Forecast to:

professional association for more than 20,000 REALTORS® in BC,

Cameron Muir, Chief Economist, cmuir@bcrea.bc.ca; 604.742.2780

focusing on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing

Brendon Ogmundson, Economist, bogmundson@bcrea.bc.ca; 604.742.2796

professional education, advocacy, economic research and standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients.

Additional economics information is available on BCREA’s website at: www.bcrea.bc.ca.

To demonstrate the profession’s commitment to improving Quality of Life in BC communities, BCREA supports policies that help ensure economic vitality, provide housing opportunities, preserve

To sign up for BCREA news releases by email visit: www.bcrea.bc.ca/news-and-publications/publications/ manage-subscriptions.

the environment, protect property owners and build better communities with good schools and safe neighbourhoods.

The Housing Forecast is published quarterly by the BCREA. Real estate boards, real estate associations and REALTORS® may reprint this content, provided that credit is given t o B C R E A b y i n c l u d i n g t h e f o l l o w i n g s t a t e m e n t : “ C o p y r i g h t B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n . R e p r i n t e d w i t h p e r m i s s i o n .” BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. 1420 - 701 Georgia Street West, PO Box 10123, Pacific Centre, Vancouver, BC V7Y 1C6

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Housing forecast  

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