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SYRIA 2025

DEVELOPMENT ROADMAP

Comprehensive Statistical Overview of the Conflict in Syria

Sponsored by


CASUALTIES: o According to Syrian Observatory for Human Rights as of December 1, 2013 more than 125,835 people have been killed in the Syrian conflict. [1] o

Children [2] 2,156 Killed

5,685 Killed

Aged 0-7 yrs

3,579 Killed

Aged 8-17 yrs

Age not reported

Total number of children killed as of 08/01/2013: 11,420

REFUGEES & INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS (IDPs):

Estimated number

Number of children

of total persons of concern as of 12/08/2013

2,289,572

inside Syria affected as of end of 11/28/2013

[3]

4,278,000

[4]

Refugees: Number of registered Syrian refugees as of 12/08/2013

2,225,373

[3]

Number of registered refugee children as of end of June 2013

734,275

Number of registered and unregistered refugee children as of end of July 2013

869,660

[5]

2,243,910

[6]

Persons awaiting registration as of 12/08/2013

80,784

[7]

Number of Syrian refugee families without a male head-of-household

70,000

Number of refugee children either unaccompanied by or separated from both parents

>3,700

[8]

2,990,000

[9]

4.25 million 9.3 million

[10]

Estimated total number of refugees in Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Iraq, and Turkey as of 12/08/2013

Number of children displaced as of 11/28/2013

IDPs: Estimated total number of IDPs in Syria as of 8/5/13 Estimated total number of people in need of humanitarian assistance in Syria

[11]


EDUCATION & SCHOOLING: Circumstances interrupting schooling 70% of violent acts affecting children's education in the year 2012 occurred in Syria according to a Save the Children report. Save the Children estimates that 2.5 million Syrian children's education is under threat. [12] The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) reports that more than 3,000 schools have been damaged or destroyed since the conflict began in 2011. (10/2013) [13]

3,000

schools have been damaged or destroyed

•Escalating violence is threatening the education of hundreds of thousands of children according to UNICEF. [14] •According to a UNICEF report in December of 2012, over 1,500 schools are being used as shelters for displaced persons. •The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimates that 650,000 Syrians are taking shelter in schools and 150 damaged schools have been converted into field hospitals. [15] •More than 110 teachers and other staff have been killed and many others are no longer reporting for work. [16]


Dropout rates 90% of children and youth aged 6 to 17 are estimated to be out of school (10/2013)

[17]

In Idlib teacher attendance is currently 55% [18] School attendance rate in Aleppo as low as 6% [19] In the cities worst aected, some children have missed out on almost two years of schooling [20] In areas hosting high numbers of displaced families, classes are overcrowded with up to 100 children [21] UNICEF cites insecurity, lack of teachers and resources, damaged buildings and the pressure to drop out to earn an income or become married as the causes for these statistics

HEALTH: Hospitals, Clinics & Supplies The following statistics were released June 2013 by the World Health Organization :

60% Countrywide $900 million

is needed to purchase essential drugs for 12 months.

of hospitals are affected

[22]

38% of hospitals are out of service

22% are damaged

78% of ambulances damaged, 52% out of service Local production of medicines has fallen by 90%. Lifesaving medicines such as anesthetics, analgesics, antibiotics, intravenous fluids and medicines for the treatment of chronic diseases are in short supply.

As of October 2013, 33 out of Syria’s 88 public hospitals were closed due to the ongoing conflict. [23] Out of 30,000 doctors registered in Syria in the beginning of 2011 16,000 have left the country. Of 5,000 doctors registered in Aleppo before the conflict, only 36 remain. [25] Experts estimate that it will cost $300,000 per month to cover the cost of treating casualties and injuries for the next ten years. [26]

[24]


Disease

Child Health

For the first time in a decade Syria has experienced a polio outbreak. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 17 children in three separate governorates have been paralyzed because of polio. The WHO says the conflict is hampering its immunization efforts [27]

4,278,000 million children affected inside Syria. [28]

Health facilities and local pharmacies are increasingly unable to provide medicines, particularly for the continuous treatment of chronic diseases. The funding gap for procuring life-saving emergency medicines, medical supplies, medical consumables and anti-cancer medicines for a period of one year alone is $467 million (USD). According to WHO 1,787 cases of influenza-like illness and 44 cases of measles have been reported in Syria from June 9th to June 22nd, 2013. The most common diseases for Syrian refugees reported in Iraq were respiratory tract infections with 737 cases confirmed in the reporting period. In Al Zaatari refugee camp in Jordan,the Early Warning Alert and Response System (EWARS) reported the most common disease was upper respiratory tract infection with 1,456 cases confirmed in the reporting period.

Over 402,590 Syrian children have been immunized against measles in Jordan. [29] In September 2013 a doctor in Hama told a United Nations (UN) assessment team that his clinic received 30 to 35 children a day with cases of malnutrition ranging from anemia to moderate acute malnutrition or severe acute malnutrition. [30] In December 2013, doctors working with Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) reported witnessing a “shocking” number of babies born in Syria with severe birth defects. The doctors attribute the trend to the near-complete collapse of the country’s health infrastructure. [31] According to UNICEF over 4 million children, in and outside of Syria, are at risk due to the ongoing conflict. [32] More than 2 million Syrian children have been afflicted by trauma, malnutrition or disease, the aid group Save the Children said in a report released in March 2013. [33] Psychological trauma: three out of every four children interviewed for a study by Bahcesehir University in Turkey have lost a loved one because of the fighting in Syria. [34] The fighting has left one in three children with injuries. [35] “Lack of safe and protective shelter is putting children’s health at risk. In the depths of this winter, children aged 5 to 14 suffered the largest proportion of flu-like illness – 38% of all registered cases in Syria”. [36]


Maternal Health More than a quarter of a million pregnant women affected by conflict in Syria are expected to give birth under dire circumstances. Dan Baker, Syrian coordinator for the UN Population Fund (UNFPA), reports that there are 340,000 pregnant women in Syria who are expected to give birth within the next nine months. There are another 64,000 expectant mothers living as refugees outside the country." (6/2013) [37] "UNFPA estimates there will be 1.65 million women of reproductive age living as IDPs by the end of 2013." [38] Before the conflict, skilled birth attendants assisted 96% of deliveries in Syria. Currently, a significant part of maternal health care has broken down. Births by Caesarean section are 3-5 times higher than in normal conditions. For instance, in one hospital in Homs, 75% of the babies are delivered using the surgical procedure. [39] MSF reports: "Among pregnant women, miscarriages and pre-term births are on the rise because of the stress caused by the conflict." “Deliveries at MSF's field hospital in the Aleppo region have increased from 56 in the month of November to more than 150 in the first three weeks of January." [40] “Save the Children has seen indications of a further reduction – between 15% and 50% – in the proportion of mothers breastfeeding. This is because of a widespread perception that the stress women are under reduces their ability to produce enough breast milk.”

INFRASTRUCTURE: Damage to homes • A Syrian real estate expert completed a private study in early May 2013 on the destruction of homes in Syria which includes the following statistics: [41] • Roughly 500,000 houses have been completely or partially destroyed costing $68 billion to rebuild and forcing almost 3 million Syrians out of their homes. • Of those he estimates that 390,000 homes have been completely destroyed. • A UN report from April 2013 provides similar statistics: [42] •Total of 1.2 million homes in Syria as of April 2013 have been destroyed or damaged (one third of national total). •400,000 homes completely destroyed •300,000 partially destroyed •500,000 that have suffered structural damage or lack infrastructure


Electricity Reports of power outages in January and February of 2013. Power cuts are also attributed to damaged infrastructure and lack of government financing.

[43]

07/07/13: The Syrian Ministry of Electricity raised the price of electricity by 140% for usage between 1 to 800 KW per hour and by 85% for usage of 801 to 2000 KW per hour. [44] Syrian government estimated as of October 2012 that the country's electricity sector has suffered $146 million in damages.

[45]

The official daily Tishrin reports that electricity production in Syria has been halved by a lack of fuel supplies at power plants and transport difficulties caused by deteriorating security. "There is a shortfall of about 3,000 megawatts due to a lack of fuel and gas supplies needed to operate the power plants. Production is only at 5,500 megawatts," down from its normal level of 8,500. Meanwhile, demand has risen to 9,500 megawatts." Trains have stopped transporting fuel and gas to power plants due to the insecurity in the country.

Internet/ Telecommunications General Telecom Infrastructure *Statistics in this topic are predominately provided by the Syrian government or government-affiliated sources. 04/2013: Syrian government says telecom infrastructure has suffered damages of 1.5 billion Syrian lira. The government says that 95% of ground and air networks have been "harmed" due to exceptional circumstances, theft, explosions, etc. [48] As of end of 2012: Syrian government newspaper, Tishrin, reports 700 mil Syrian lira in damages to telecom infrastructure in Damascus and its suburbs. [49]

[47]

[46]


Internet “The damage to cables and electric grids and a lack of power supply is hampering mobile communication and Internet services, which severely constrains coordination and management of aid delivery. Loss of communication can also pose a threat to humanitarian staff ability to move safely. Internet and phone line connectivity was down in As-Sweida governorate for 2 weeks in July and only dial-up connections are available.” [50] “Only around 20% of Syrians have access to the web, and those that do typically have to deal with power outages, slow service, or blackouts."

[51]

On May 8th, 2013 Syria experienced a nationwide internet blackout that lasted 19 hours. [52]

Water Shortages The following data has been collected by UNICEF which has provided regular reports on the status of water supply in Syria. [53] In conflict-affected areas, the availability of water per person has decreased to one third of pre-crisis levels.

Water pumping

Water pumping

in Deir ez-Zor

in Damascus

dropped by

fallen by

90%

20%

Water trucking is being used in communities where water networks are not functioning. Water for a family of seven, for 15 days, costs $15 which is unaffordable for some of the most vulnerable families. The water and sewage infrastructure has been severely impacted by the crisis: An estimated 35% of water treatment plants have been damaged. Many governing boards no longer function, including the water establishments of Aleppo, Deir ez-Zor and Homs. [54]


On 07/22/2013 Al Modon newspaper reported that repairing Syria's water and sanitation infrastructure will cost half a billion Syrian lira. No more than 29% of water in Syria is treated. [55]

A UNICEF assessment from February 2013, carried out in cooperation with municipal water departments and local private contractors, identifies six areas where people’s ability to access safe water has been most severely restricted: rural Damascus, Idlib, Deir ez-Zor, Homs, Aleppo and al-Raqqa. [56]

“To maintain the supply of potable water, engineers from the Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) have worked together with the local water boards to carry out emergency repairs in areas of heavy fighting. ICRC and SARC have also provided local water boards with water treatment supplies, spare parts and generators. As a result of these joint efforts, 20 million people have had access to clean drinking water since the beginning of the year.” [57] In February 2013, UNICEF conducted a large-scale operation to secure safe water supplies for more than 10 million Syrians—nearly half of the country’s population—amid reports that the quality and quantity of Syria’s water was deteriorating with negative impacts for children’s health. “This shipment is very timely as supplies of chlorine in Syria have fallen dangerously low, making access to safe water challenging for many families,” said UNICEF Representative in Syria Youssouf Abdel-Jelil."

[58]

Sewage •Solid waste management has been severely affected by the conflict and the general build-up of waste is of growing concern. A number of rubbish collection trucks have been stolen or damaged, staff members have been killed and there is a lack of inputs such as rubbish bags. In several areas, GOS supported solid waste collection systems have ceased to operate, including in areas of Aleppo, Homs and Rural Damascus. •Treatment of sewage has decreased nationally from 70% before the crisis to 35%. [59] •UNICEF reports in some shelters 70 individuals are sharing a single toilet.


FOOD NECESSITY: A FAO/WFP crop and food security assessment released early July 2013 included the following statistics on general data, Bread/Wheat, Animals & Livestock, and Crops:

[60]

Overview Approximately 4 million people are facing food insecurity. Most vulnerable groups include the internally displaced, small scale farmers and herders, casual laborers, petty traders, the urban poor, children, pregnant and lactating mothers, the elderly, the disabled and the chronically sick. On December 3, 2013 the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent announced that one million Syrians in crisis-ridden areas do not have access to food aid deliveries. An official from the organization adds that “a catastrophe can occur in winter, particularly in areas with severe violence, and that the number of people needing aid could spiral.” [61] "Syria’s food producers face high costs of production, reduced availability of inputs and labor, reduced government support mechanisms (e.g. input subsidies), damage to agricultural infrastructure and machinery, continual threat of violence and erosion of their resource base." [62] Food markets are seriously disrupted. In addition to higher prices, food access is compromised due to lower quantities of food in the markets. Main impediments to trade include insecurity, transport constraints, credit for suppliers, and foreign currency shortages. World Food Program is not able to scale up its assistance to the growing number of people in need because of a lack of funding, difficult access to conduct assessments, and a limited number of implementing partners. [63] In the Damascus suburb of Moadamiya, cases of starvation and a short supply of food and water have been reported, including reports of residents eating whatever they could in order to survive.

[64]


Bread/Wheat Less than one-third of the government's wheat collection centers are currently operational. Wheat harvested in 2013 is estimated at 2.4 mil tonnes, down 15% from 2012 and 40% below the ten-year average before the crisis. [65]

15% From 2012

The wheat supply chain has been substantially disrupted by the ongoing crisis. Wheat is particularly important within the Syrian diet, it provides about 40 % of households’ calorie consumption, and is consumed primarily as bread. As such, the supply chain of wheat, flour, and bread is predominantly managed by the government. The General Establishment for Cereal Processing and Trade (HOBOOB) is responsible for government wheat grain procurement through collection centres. Of the 140 collection centres owned by the government only 40 are still operational due to the ongoing crisis. Disruptions to procurement are particularly high in Al-Hasakeh governorate (a main wheat and barley production area); where only six of 40 collection centres are currently operating. Wheat production is subsidized by the government through the payment of premium prices to growers. Bread consumption is also subsidized through retail prices set below the cost of production.

Animals & Livestock The livestock sector has been seriously depleted by the ongoing conflict. Poultry production is estimated to be down by more than 50 % compared to 2011, and sheep and cattle numbers are down approximatly 40% and 30%. [66] Due to higher prices; more Syrian livestock are being sold in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq. With the virtual loss of veterinary services within Syria, livestock diseases are being transmitted to neighboring countries, posing a potentially serious regional animal-health problem.

Basic Agriculture/Crops “Irrigated crop production – e.g. wheat, barley, cotton and horticultural crops – is severely compromised by damage to irrigation canals and pumps, lack of spare parts, power cuts and the high cost of diesel. The situation has forced many farmers to reduce irrigation or revert to rain fed production. Loss of irrigated crop production is especially serious considering, for example, yields of irrigated wheat in Syria are typically two to three times as high as those of rain fed wheat." [67]


JOBS & ECONOMY: A FAO/WFP report released early July 2013 included the following statistics on jobs and the economy: [68] Inflation is rampant, and Syria’s currency has experienced major devaluation. In 2012, year-onyear inflation rose by 50% from 2011. The 2013 inflation rate is expected to rise above 30%. In the 26 months since the onset of the crisis in March 2011, the official value of the SYP has fallen by more than 115% Note: CATO report indicates October 2013 inflation rate as 193% [69] In January 2013, the Syrian Center for Policy Research reported economic losses over the last 22 months stand at about $48.4 billion, almost 82% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product for 2010. [70] A study by the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for Middle East describes the Syrian economy as in “total disarray”, stating “Syria now has all the characteristics of a collapsed economy, with falling economic activity and trade, inflation that is likely to move into hyper-inflation, and the government finances its spending through printing money, and a currency that is depreciating at a breakneck pace.” [71] The following statistics are from a UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) report on the economic effects of the Syrian crisis presented in Lebanon early July 2013: [72] Syria's GDP fell by 31% in 2012 and fell by 7% since the beginning of 2013. Head of the economic analysis section of ESCWA, Mohamed Hadi Bashir, says the expected rate of unemployment for 2013 was close to 45% and the budget deficient was between 14 and 15%. (Other estimates have reported unemployment anywhere from 24%-37%) [73] Bashir also says essential sectors have been affected: • Industrial sector's contribution to GDP has fallen from 7% in 2010 to 2% in 2013. • Agriculture sector is up from 17% in 2010 to 23% in 2013. • Oil and gas production is down 95% since the start of the conflict and made up only 3% of the GDP for 2013 compared to a high of 13% in the past. • Unemployment is expected to rise to 65% if the conflict continues into 2015. Half the existing population of Syria is now poor and 5.5 million people are living in abject poverty (less than a dollar a day) according to Syrian development specialist Omar Abdulaziz Hallaj. [74]


REBUILDING: As soon as the crisis ends, Syria will need approximately $45 billion to fund reconstruction efforts. If the crisis continues, the reconstruction process will face many challenges, both in terms of cost and capabilities. In the event that the crisis persists until 2015, unemployment rates are expected to rise to 60%. [75] A team of United Nations experts estimates that the 28-month civil war will cost $80 billion in reconstruction cost so far. [76] According to figures presented by Salma Sabra of the Lebanese-French Bank in Syria, the cost of reconstruction will be in the range of $65 to $100 billion if the conflict continues to 2015.

[77]

The Syrian Economic Task Force estimates that total reconstruction costs including compensation to “affected and harmed people” will range between $60 and $200 billion. o The organization also estimates it will cost $35 billion alone to rebuild and repair buildings that have already been destroyed or damaged and that the effort will take three years at least. o This figure is close to an estimate by Syrian architect and development specialist Omar Abdulaziz Hallaj who says that damages in the housing sector alone will cost $25 billion with another $8 billion for urban infrastructure. [78] Syrian architect and development specialist Omar Abdulaziz Hallaj says that “it will take Syria 20 years of pre-2011 spending level economy to rebuild the lost assets and recover its economy.”


SEXUAL VIOLENCE: Women’s Media Center’s Women Under Siege project along with Columbia University, the Syrian-American Medical Society, and Syrian activist and journalists, has documented and collected data to figure out where and how women and men are being violated in Syria’s war. A total of 162 stories were gathered from March 2011 through March of 2013. [79]

o 80% of 162 reports include female victims ages 7-46 years old. Of those, 85% of women reported rape. o 10% include sexual assault without penetration. o 10% include detention that appears to have been for the purposes of sexualized violence or enslavement for a period longer than 24 hours. o Gang rape allegedly occurred in 40% of the reports about women. o In the same study, 20% were men and boys ages 11 to 56.

According to a January report by the International Rescue Committee, many Syrians identified rape as a primary reason their families fled to neighboring countries. [80] In February, the assistant U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, Erika Feller, cautioned that the conflict in Syria is "increasingly marked by rape and sexual violence employed as a weapon of war to intimidate parties to the conflict destroying identity, dignity and the social fabrics of families and communities.”[81] Writer Soraya Chemaly argues that news reports have ignored the role of sexual violence in Syria. "Gender-based, sexualized violence is broadly destabilizing to a collapsing state and its immediate neighbors," she writes. "It is a weaponization that we don’t acknowledge and has a destructive fractal effect on society that far exceeds the parameters of any one incident of actual assault."

[82]

“From what we have been able to learn, there is virtually no trained psychosocial support [specific to survivors of sexual violence] currently available in the camps,” said Leyla Welkin, a clinical psychologist and gender-based violence consultant working with UNFPA.

[83]


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About this Report This report was created to gather statistics and information on key areas of analysis on the current crisis and economic situation of Syria. We would like to thank the dedicated researchers—most notably Yvonne Glass—who spent much time in compiling the information presented here. The report development and research was led by Hazami Barmada of Barmada Consulting. The information presented in this report reflects the most readily available sources in English. While all attempts have been made at presenting accurate and timely information, we recognize that more recent analyses may have been conducted and/or published that are not included in this report. We also recognize that the statistics from the ground and among Arabic sources may differ from those presented here. In accordance with industry standards, authors may use excerpts from this report without requesting formal permission. However, full attribution to Syria Relief & Development is expected.

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Comprehensive Statistical Overview  

A report created for our Syria 2025 Summit--Comprehensive Statistical Overview of the Conflict in Syria

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