INDIA – BANGLADESH: AN OPTIMISTIC FUTURE?

Despite sharing a bond forged in blood, has the India-Bangladesh relationship matured to its potential? RESEARCH TEAM

The foundation stone of India- Bangladesh relationship was eloquently defined by the Indian External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar last year during an event organised by Bangladesh to honour the children of Indian Armed Forces personnel with the Mujib Scholarship. Mr Jaishankar called it a “continuation of the bonds that were forged in blood 50 years ago.”

While both India and Bangladesh have publicly stressed the positives of their evolving relationship, especially since Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina came to power for the second time in 2009, much remains to be achieved.

Undoubtedly, Bangladesh is a valuable neighbour and an important strategic partner of India. Indian efforts to build greater trust by projecting and utilising commonality are enhancing integration in multiple sectors, and significant progress has been achieved in three thematic areas - dispute resolution, cooperation and connectivity. But, India’s sheer size has always awed its neighbours, especially the smaller ones, who have harboured a genuine concern about being submerged by the Indian economy and culture.

The 1971 Indo – Pak war, also called the War of Liberation in Bangladesh, is both a cause of bonhomie as also angst. Today, Bangladesh wholeheartedly and pub- licly recognises India’s contribution during the Liberation War of 1971, both publicly and privately, which has greatly brought the two nations closer. But this was not always so, especially during President Zia-ur-Rahman (1977-1981), the founder of Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the main opposition party today and during the military rule of Lt Gen HM Ershad (1983-90).

Bangladesh may be a small nation in physical terms, but its value lies in the regional geostrategic space for India. In the new strategic milieu where China has upturned existing global power structures, its geostrategic location and economic and political strength make consistency in Indo-Bangladesh relations important, irrespective of which regime is in power in Delhi and Dhaka.

The Compulsions Of Geography And Culture

Geographically, Bangladesh occupies a very strategic location vis a vis India, especially concerning the vulnerable Siliguri Corridor, India’s vital gateway to its North-eastern States and the domination Bangladesh enjoys over the Bay of Bengal.

Both share an international border that is almost 4000 km long, with pockets of disputes interspersed.

India aspires to a greater role in Southeast Asia, so Bangladesh can be the ideal partner. The latter can facilitate greater integration of the Indian mainland and the Northeast region by providing access to road, rail and waterways, including the movement of military vehicles and aircraft over her airspace. Culturally both nations have a lot in common apart from a shared fascination with the poetry of Rabindranath Tagore, especially Rabindra Sangeet. The fact that as the Eastern arm of a pre-1971 Pakistan, it refused to shed its Bangla culture and linguistic bonds to a united Bengal was one of the factors that made its people suspect in the eyes of their compatriots from the Western wing. Seventy years after the partition of British-ruled India, these cultural bonds remain as strong as ever, despite the rise of Islamic radicalisation in Bangladesh.

WHY BANGLADESH?

Bangladesh may be a small nation in physical terms, but its value lies in the regional geostrategic space for India. In the new strategic milieu where China has upturned existing global power structures, its geostrategic location and economic and political strength make consistency in Indo-Bangladesh relations important, irrespective of which regime is in power in Delhi and Dhaka. Without a doubt, Bangladesh is an important component of India’s extended neighbourhood security calculus. Under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s watch, now in her fourth term ending next year, India and Bangladesh have been deeply engaged in Regional Cooperation through multilateral forums such as SAARC, BIMSTEC and IORARC.

More importantly, its location on the flank of our Northeast makes it an ideal corridor for greater integration of the Indian mainland and the North East region by providing air, road, rail, and waterway access to commercial and military traffic. Economically, Bangladesh has been enjoying a healthy growth rate for over a decade. For the future, there is very good potential for even greater growth with its large and diligent human resources. Even during the difficult pandemic period followed by the Ukraine war, Bangladesh has maintained its economic equilibrium, unlike Sri Lanka and Pakistan. As per Dacca, the growth has been pegged at a healthy 6.03 per cent this year.

Therefore, if Indian investments and technological expertise are shared with its Eastern Neighbour, both sides stand to gain considerably. Take, for example, the energy sector, where India and Bangladesh have a vast unmet demand to fuel growth. Mutually beneficial joint investments in projects like the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline and recognition of the Indian Oil Corporation Limited as a registered government-to-government supplier of refined petroleum products are examples of cooperation in energy security.

Road Bumps

Despite the network of rivers crisscrossing Bangla Desh, every drop of the outflow is precious for its econ- omy and the quality of life of its people. Therefore, for decades, there have been several disputes on sharing of river waters. The most publicised one is the Teesta River dispute, where Bangladesh seeks 50 per cent of water between the dry months of Dec to May. India claims 55 per cent of the water as the river flows for about 151 km through Sikkim, nearly 142 km through West Bengal, and only the final 121 km through Bangladesh.

Of the 4096.7 km long Indo-Bangladesh, 180 km is along the Teesta River. However, the 6.5 km stretch of the boundary near Comilla on the Tripura border is yet to be delimited, leading to often border killings. The land border between endpoints was only resolved after the UN Tribunal award.

Fortunately, the dispute over various tidal islands in the Ganga Delta was amicably resolved through the Permanent Court of Arbitration, whose decision has been accepted by India and Bangladesh. In addition, the smuggling of drugs and fake currency through the Bangladesh border is another serious concern for the Indian government despite the effort of India to fence the entire stretch as it has done with the Indo-Pak border. Bangladesh has a significant footprint of radical Islamist groups fermenting trouble within the country and exporting it to India. Many terrorist acts in India could be traced back to Bangladesh. Allegedly, the Pakistani ISI has a strong presence in the country, abetting and supporting a host of anti-India Islamic groups. Prominent amongst these is JMB (Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen). The increased radicalisation in Bangladesh, coupled with violent extremism, has Pakistan’s backing and is spreading across the border into West Bengal, Assam and Tripura.

China’s expanding presence and influence along India’s periphery is a rising concern. Bangladesh has also been attracted to Chinese investments like India’s other neighbours. The Defence Cooperation Agreement that supplies Chinese submarines, fighter jets, tanks, missile boats and equipment to the Bangladesh armed forces is of greater concern. The agreement also involves joint training between the two militaries. Turkey is also supplying military equipment to Bangladesh.

Bangladesh is key to India’s overland connection with its Northeast region, which is linked by the tenuous 21 km wide Siliguri corridor [chicken neck]. Access to the sea for Indian north-east states is easier through Bangladesh. However, operationalising and stabilising these links is still pending. Like other smaller neighbours, Bangladesh also harbours apprehensions of being swamped by an unequal trade balance with India. A trade deficit of $ 14 bn for 2021 -22 exists, with Indian exports growing at a healthy 11 per cent per annum. Bangladesh levies a 25 per cent peak import tariff to safeguard its own industry, which is to India’s disadvantage. There are ongoing discussions to resolve this issue.

The Way Ahead

For India, connectivity with its North Eastern states remains the top priority. The Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal [BBIN] Motor Vehicle Agreement-2015 must be expedited by finalising the protocols, including insurance, banking guarantees, and freight carrier’s size and frequency into each country. The Trilateral Highway between India, Myanmar and Thailand is an excellent opportunity for Bangladesh to join the mega project. As regards railway corridors, the Rs. 862.58 Cr AgartalaAkhaura link is yet to be commissioned, with 85 per cent of work on the Indian side and 73 per cent of work in Bangladesh already completed. It will reduce the travel time between Kolkata and Agartala to only 10 hours. It is a pity that the full potential of the riverine transport system is not being exploited despite an existing Protocol on Inland Water Transit & Trade (PIWTT). The delay is due to the non-finalisation of the protocol routes.

Energy Security for its growing manufacturing sector is a prime concern for Bangladesh, for which it needs Indian assistance on priority. Adani Power in Jharkhand has agreed to supply power to Bangladesh. Bangladesh’s additional requirement of power necessitates the early signing of a tripartite power trade agreement enabling Bangladesh to import power from Nepal through India’s grid. This will boost reshaping sub-regional cooperation between all three nations.

Connectivity and energy issues are but subsets of the larger issue of economic integration between the two neighbours. This can be achieved only if, stable economic policies are enacted by both sides on a long-term basis to make progress in SAFTA & CEPA. India should further reduce non-tariff barriers to boost trade.

The trade imbalance needs to be corrected, with India’s West Bengal, North East states and Bangladesh acting as a Compact Hub in boosting trade with Southeast Asia by utilising both nations’ ports, road and rail links. The Indian FDI in Bangladesh is only $ 310 Mn compared to the Chinese $ 940 Mn. Water sharing has historically been the biggest irritant in the relationship, with Teesta River being the most prominent. New Delhi is handicapped by the fact that this is a state subject, even though the current friendly regime in Dacca would gain immensely if an agreement is signed before the parliamentary elections scheduled in January next year. In addition, there is a need to resolve the water sharing of six other rivers (Manu, Muhuri, Khowai, Gumti, Dharla and Dudh Kumar). China has been quick to step into this issue by offering dredging and construction of embankments of the Teesta on the Bangladesh side to improve the outflow. India’s concern is the presence of a large number of Chinese workers so close to the sensitive Siliguri Corridor.

As Bangladesh grows in the manufacturing and services sectors, it looks towards India to help upskill its youth for greater employability and entrepreneurship. Initiatives such as medical courses in the Bangla language, collaboration in Therapeutics, and setting up orphanages, educational as Institutes and cultural centres, besides signing MOUs for disaster management cooperation, will meet the current aspirations of Bangladesh.

Gradually, the realisation has dawned on most of our neighbours, including Bangladesh, that India holds no conceivable security threat to them. However, many continue to have a robust defence relationship with Beijing. India would expect, at the least, greater transparency in this relationship with China so that Indian security concerns are laid to rest. India already has a healthy military-to-military partnership with the Bangladesh defence forces that must be sustained to enhance the trust between the two militaries.

Conclusion

Pertinent challenges need to be carefully addressed to ensure sustainable relationships. Positive development in recent initiatives in political, economic and security domains must be progressed in time bond manner - before the polls in Bangladesh.

In the growing interdependence and sharing era, there is no alternative but to further strengthen bilateral relations between India and Bangladesh by exploring all possible opportunities. The bond forged in blood must endure and prosper.