GREECE ON THE MEND?

Geographically, Greece is important for the rest of Europe. For one, it is the bulwark for stemming the tide of illegal immigrants flooding European shores. As is evident from media reports, Greece has taken a very tough line, irrespective of the human cost. More importantly, as part of the Energy Triangle, it holds promise for the future energy security of Europe after the Russian taps have been shut.

The country has clearly spelt out the strategic direction it wishes to take in terms of defence cooperation with the United States and commitment to the eurozone. Its foreign policy is firmly anchored in the strategic priorities of aligning with the West while assuming a stabilising role within the broader region.

The Greek national election in May/June had two predictable outcomes. Firstly, it was won by the incumbent party, New Democracy (ND).

Secondly, since no party secured an overall majority and no coalition agreement was reached, the announcement of a new election followed.

For over four decades, no ruling party in Greece had managed to increase its vote share. With the backdrop of a state wiretapping scandal and the aftermath of a devastating rail accident in February, Prime Minister Mitsotakis’s prospects seemed vulnerable. Surprisingly, however, the anticipated close race, as predicted by polls, proved to be wildly inaccurate. The centre-right New Democracy (ND) party outperformed its left-wing rival, Syriza, garnering more than double the votes.

Far-right parties experienced gains, while the left-wing parties faced challenges, resulting in the most right-leaning composition of Greece’s parliament since the restoration of Democracy in 1974.

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis euphorically characterised the outcome as an “earthquake.” While seemingly hyperbolic, the remarkable nature of the victory lends credence to his exclamation.

The Victor

The Greek parliament is now held by Eight parties who will share the 300 parliamentary seats. Among the parties securing seats in the Greek Parliament are the far-right Spartiates (Spartans) party, led by Vasilis Stigkas. Despite needing to cross the 3 per cent threshold, the Spartans already achieved nearly 5 per cent of the vote with 90 per cent of votes counted, earning them 13 seats.

Joining them in the chamber is the left-wing Pasok party, which secured the third-largest share of the vote with 32 seats, although it trailed behind New Democracy and Syriza.

The Communist Party of Greece (KKE) secured the fourth position, representing the far left, with 20 seats.

Other parties that secured seats include Plefsi Eleftherias (Freedom Sailing), led by Zoe Konstantpoulou, who served as the president of the Hellenic Parliament for six months in 2015 during Syriza’s first term in power. They obtained eight seats.

The conservative Niki (Victory) party, led by Dimitris Natsios, a theologian with strong ties to the Orthodox Church, secured ten seats.

Additionally, the populist and pro-Russian Elliniki Lisi party (Greek Solution) will also be represented in the parliament with 12 seats.

Drifting To The Right

Greece has been in the throes of a decade-long financial crisis which has impacted daily living across the country. Between 2009 and 2015, Greece went through a period of political turmoil as it grappled with the imminent risk of national bankruptcy. During this six-year period, the country witnessed five early elections, six different governments, and even a referendum that was tied to the possibility of a disorderly exit from the eurozone.

As individual parties failed in stabilising the economy, the political scenario underwent a change. Starting in 2011, Greece deviated from its traditional approach of one-party majorities and instead formed coalition governments that transcended the conventional leftright divide.

The election outcome represents a significant triumph for Greece’s conservative party, securing an absolute majority in parliament. Furthermore, far-right parties experienced gains, while the left-wing parties faced challenges, resulting in the most right-leaning composition of Greece’s parliament since the restoration of Democracy in 1974.

Under the new electoral system, the New Democracy party, led by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, significantly expanded its double-digit lead over the main rival, the left-wing Syriza party. The party successfully secured 158 seats in Greece’s 300-seat parliament, benefiting from the provision of 50 bonus seats granted to the winning party.

The electoral dominance of New Democracy (ND) signalled the beginning of a transformation in the party system, with a shift towards a single strong party. The official opposition, SYRIZA—the Coalition of the Radical Left—experienced a significant decline, falling below two-thirds of its previous vote share. New Democracy garnered about 40.5 per cent of the vote, almost 23 points ahead of the Syriza party.

The main opposition party, Syriza, performed poorly in the election, leading to speculation about the potential challenge to its status as the primary opposition by the Pasok party. This outcome also implies that the conservatives could govern without facing significant scrutiny or opposition.

Surprisingly, the rail tragedy in February, which cast a shadow over the election campaign, did not appear to directly impact the election outcome. The disaster claimed the lives of fifty-seven individuals, including numerous students. Opposition parties emphasised the incident as evidence of a malfunctioning state that had been severely weakened due to years of economic crisis and insufficient investment.

The election results are indicative of a broader trend in Southern European countries shifting towards the right. This shift comes after a prolonged financial crisis in the eurozone. In recent elections, the far right has shown strength in countries like Finland and Spain while garnering significant support in Germany. Notably, astute figures within the far right, such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, are starting to exert influence at the European level.

IT IS THE ECONOMY!

Mr Mitsotakis’s electoral victory validates James Carville’s famous quote, “It’s the economy, stupid,” during President Clinton’s successful 1992 campaign that was based on economic priorities. Over the past four years, the centre-right has held power in Greece, and they can proudly point to the country’s impressive economic growth, which reached nearly 6 per cent last year.

Mr Mitsotakis overcame the incumbency factor due to the economic indicators achieved and a desire for stability and continuity among voters who were scarred by the eurozone debt crisis.

The government successfully highlighted various reassuring factors, such as a notable 50 per cent increase in foreign direct investment last year. Despite starting from a low base, the Greek economy is currently growing at a rate twice that of the eurozone average. Following three bailouts totalling €280 billion, international oversight of spending controls by lenders concluded last summer.

In addition to advocating for small state and tax cuts, Mr. Mitsotakis pursued populist policies on migration, including a promise reminiscent of former Pres ident Trump’s approach to extending a steel border fence along almost the entire length of Greece’s border with Turkey.

According to analysts, the election results are viewed as favourable for the market and position Greece firmly on the path to reclaiming an investment-grade rating by the end of the year.

Mr Mitsotakis’s message to the nation centred on his trustworthiness to navigate the Greek economy and solidify recent growth. The Greek population has responded more positively than anticipated to this pitch, demonstrating their confidence in his leadership.

Electoral System Reform

This election, analysts claim, is as much a result of the politics of the parties as it is about the electoral system itself, which has witnessed quite some transformation in the recent past.

In May 2012, the electoral law granting a 50-seat bonus to the leading party lost credibility when it was awarded to a party with only 19 per cent of the vote.

In 2016, the SYRIZA-led government abolished this law and transitioned the electoral system to one of proportional representation (PR) with a parliamentary threshold of 3 per cent.

According to the Greek constitution, the new law was meant to be applied in the election following the next one. However, the succeeding New Democracy (ND) government passed a second law to reinstate the seat bonus. ND then repeatedly pledged to hold a second election under its own electoral law to ensure a majority government.

Thus, the recent vote was anticipated to be the first of two elections held under different electoral laws.

Some voters viewed this first round as an opportunity to express a general protest, leading to a significant increase in support for extra-parliamentary forces, reaching 16 per cent, double the figure from 2019, and second only to 19 per cent in May 2012.

The combined protest vote, including support for two radical parties already in parliament, reached nearly 28 per cent.

Additionally, while the abstention rate (39.2 per cent) was lower than in 2019, it was the third highest since 1974, with abstainers outnumbering those who voted for the leading party.

Interestingly, the two main parties not only presented different political programmes but also represented distinct electoral systems and types of government. ND, advocating for the seat bonus, supported Greece’s traditional single-party majority government model.

On the other hand, SYRIZA, having engineered the switch to PR, called for a return to coalition governments. Many Greeks associated coalitions with the hardships and uncertainties of the previous decade.

Ironically, the vote for stability contributed to a significant reshaping of the political landscape. The steep decline of SYRIZA, the surge in support for ND, and the emergence of two more radical parties as parliamentary contenders have set the stage for a new starting point.

Despite a decade of national hardship, New Democracy (ND) managed to oversee a period of economic growth, gaining public support for its handling of the initial phase of the pandemic and its management of Greek-Turkish relations during a time of heightened tension.

However, opinion polls revealed a significant level of economic dissatisfaction and political mistrust among the populace.

Issues such as the cost-of-living crisis and revelations of extensive surveillance using illicit spyware raised concerns about the rule of law. Additionally, the tragic train crash undermined the government’s image of an efficient and effective state, further eroding its legitimacy.

Mitsotakis has made commitments to in troduce initial bills focused on reforming the public administration and the econo my. He has also expressed intentions to revamp the judicial system, healthcare sector, and education system.

Additionally, he proposed the creation of a family ministry to address Greece’s declining and ageing population.

These plans demonstrate his determi nation to implement comprehensive changes across various sectors of the country.

Mitsotakis has rebranded Greece as a pro-business and fiscally responsible eurozone member, gaining appreciation from investors. The country is expected to regain its investment-grade status over 12 years after its initial downgrade, signalling the end of the dark days of the financial crisis.

During his initial term, Mitsotakis successfully tackled unemployment, implemented tax reductions, attracted foreign investment, and modernised Greece’s outdated bureaucracy, which had long resisted modernisation efforts.

In his second term, Mitsotakis has pledged to further increase salaries, raise the minimum monthly wage to €950 (£815), lower taxes, restructure the public health system, and enhance nationwide infrastructure.

These promises demonstrate his commitment to further improving the economic and social well-being of Greece.

New Democracy faces the challenge of maintaining the trust of centrist voters while also preventing the loss of its right-wing supporters to other political parties. Since the migrant crisis, the majority of Greek voters have shifted towards favouring stricter and more conservative policies.

AN EXTREMIST RESURGENCE?

Greece is now confronted with a crucial question: Can the country effectively combat the resurgence of far-right extremism for the second time in a decade? This challenge is compounded by the weakened state of the left and the prevailing dominance of conservatism in Greek politics.

The unexpected success of an obscure extremist party represents uncharted territory for Greece as it grapples with the reemergence of extreme right-wing ideologies just three years after the conviction of Golden Dawn.

The shockwaves were felt when Ilias Kasidiaris, a neo-Nazi politician and former member of parliament for Golden Dawn, posted a cryptic photograph on Twitter urging his supporters to rally behind a mysterious political entity called Spartiátes, or Spartans, just two weeks before the second round of the Greek general election. To everyone’s surprise, Spartans, a previously under-the-radar political party, managed to secure a significant 4.64 per cent of the total vote share, earning twelve seats in the 300-seat Greek Parliament.

The government attempted to limit the influence of convicted politicians associated with Golden Dawn by passing a law in 2021 that prohibited them from assuming leadership positions in political parties.

However, Kasidiaris boldly declared his intention to run for a parliamentary seat in early 2023, prompting the government to enact emergency legislation banning his participation in the upcoming election.

Assessment

New Democracy’s substantial victory over Syriza is credited primarily to the economic growth experienced during Mitsotakis’s initial term as prime minister. Voters expressed their desire for Greece to maintain a trajectory of stability and “normality” after the turbulent financial crisis the country went through. Economy any day trumps geopolitics!

The outcome of the election reflects a larger pattern observed in Southern European countries, with a notable shift towards right-wing political ideologies. This is compounded by the migrant crises and does not bode well for humanitarian sanctuaries for the hordes of migrants swarming towards European safe-havens.