COURTING AN ALLIANCE

Indian PM’s high-profile visit surfing the popularity wave of the Indian diaspora hints at a new era of Indo-U.S. partnership even as a Cold War looms.

Suchitra Padmanabhan is the Policy Research Associate at Synergia Foundation and has Post Graduate Degree in Social Policy & Planning from the London School of Economics

Under an invigorating leadership and a conducive geopolitical environment, India’s stock was never higher in the U.S. This was amply in display during the recent visit of Mr Modi’s first state visit to Washington, where he was honoured with unprecedented state protocols and warmth. It is indicative of how important India has become in the U.S. scheme of things despite the consumption of Russian oil and refusal to publicly condemn Moscow for its aggression.

While most of India basked in the afterglow of the visit, many a cautious voices advised a more toneddown approach to calm nerves at Kremlin, our historical friend and well-wisher. A week after the visit, Mr Modi “briefed” Russian President Vladimir Putin about his recent tour to Washington DC – a visit that saw the United States easing restrictions to share advanced military and civilian technologies with India, apparently to help it lessen its dependence on Russia, as per the Indian newspaper The Deccan Herald.

While Moscow maintained a studious silence on the visit, an editorial on RT.com by Gleb Makarevich, Deputy Head of Centre for the Indian Ocean Region Studies, made the dry observations that “Moscow must realise that New Delhi is developing relations with Washing- ton for its own benefit. But India has to accept the same when it comes to Russia and China.” Was this a muted warning?

The litmus test lies in where the growing relationship between New Delhi and Washington will lead to in the next few years. Can both parties effectively reap the economic and security advantages of collaboration, despite their divergent principles, which they may be hesitant to acknowledge openly?

A MUTUAL ATTRACTION OR SHARED INTERESTS?

India’s economic growth has contributed to its soft power, making it an attractive partner for the U.S. A sizeable Indian diaspora, perhaps one of the most prosperous and qualified amongst all non-Caucasian immigrant groups, acted as a powerful influencer. Quietly, behind the scenes, this grouping has helped its parent country chart a favourable course through the complex maze of domestic American politics. Notably, leaders of tech giants like Alphabet, IBM, and Microsoft trace their roots back to India, as do the heads of three of America’s top five business schools.

The U.S. would like to project its relationship with India as a test case for intricate alliances between like-minded democracies evolving in an increasing- ly fractured multipolar world. Of course, detractors like Pakistan and China call it the “propping up” of a mid-level power to counter the rise of China in Asia-Pacific, a comparison that they call, is far from reality.

The litmus test lies in where the growing relationship between New Delhi and Washington will lead to in the next few years. Can both parties effectively reap the economic and security advantages of collaboration, despite their divergent principles, which they may be hesitant to acknowledge openly?

The development has not taken place overnight, but since the tenancy of President Clinton’s first term in office, both India and the U.S. have been diligently working at undoing the damage of the past half a century. India’s inclusion in the Quad was a turning point. To bolster India’s military capabilities, the United States slowly opened sales of high-tech equipment like attack helicopters, military transport planes and maritime surveillance platforms, which were the first in the long history of their relationship. It was a long journey from the receipt of PL-480 wheat shipments to India paying hard cash for buying top-of-the-line American military aircraft through the faster Foreign Military Sales route. Mr Modi’s visit promises to raise this cooperation in military technology to an entirely new level.

Lingering Irritants

This is not to say that the relationship is without friction. As a first, India’s stance towards the West and its overall foreign policy are increasingly turning towards pragmatism. While India maintains a sceptical stance towards Western countries and firmly rejects their claims to global leadership, it has historically been suspicious of the post-war international order, viewing it as a form of dominance by other nations. This blend of contradictory attitudes creates a complex situation. On the one hand, India is a strategic partner of the United States, yet it remains cautious of Western intentions. It is improbable that India will ever enter a formal secu- rity alliance with America and maintains a relationship with Russia, from which it procures arms. Consequently, the extent of support America could count on from India in critical situations remains uncertain.

The second major concern is based on what Western critics perceive as Prime Minister Modi’s illiberalism which does not resonate well with the liberal constituency in America and is being heavily exploited by the pro-China/ Pakistan lobbyists active in the country.

Even more extreme voices have gone on record arguing that America risks repeating its history with China, granting economic advantages to a rival that may eventually turn against it. However, this scenario is being diluted by the mutual suspicion of China, which serves as a driving force advocating closer ties with India, cutting across party lines.

Based on recent events, it is likely that the U.S. will adopt a prudent approach based on shared initiatives that can strengthen the relationship. The Biden administration’s efforts to expedite technology transfer to India present a promising example. By bolstering India’s defence industry, America aims to wean it away from the struggling Russian defence sector, thus further weakening its influence. Collaborating in areas such as clean energy and technology, where both nations seek to reduce dependence on China, can further strengthen their alliance.

Advantage India

There has been considerable analysis, both in India and in the U.S., of how the Indo-US relationship transformed so rapidly under the current dispensation in New Delhi. The answer consistently revolves around geopolitics: From America’s perspective, India, with its burgeoning population and strong economy, stands as the only credible counterbalance to China in Asia. Managing Beijing necessitates cultivating a friendship with New Delhi.

U.S. President Joe Biden’s firm stance against the Chinese regime, openly referring to it as a dictatorship, demonstrates the deepening alliance between India and the U.S. This growing strategic engagement between the two countries reflects a shared objective to curtail China’s influence in the region and establish a dominant presence in the Indian Ocean. By working together, India and the U.S. aspire to promote peace, stability, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region, positioning India as a pivotal player in shaping the region’s future trajectory. This strengthened Indo-U.S. partnership underscores the commitment to a collaborative approach that safeguards the interests and values shared by both nations.

Another aspect to consider is the Russia factor. With an increasing urgency to resolve the conflict in Ukraine and diminish Russia’s ability to engage in future transgressions, Washington requires India to adopt a more critical stance towards Moscow, despite their close historical ties. Due to its strategic location and the steady growth of its economic and military capabilities, India has emerged as an attractive partner for the United States in upholding a free and open Indo-Pacific region. The shared emphasis on regional cooperation and security closely aligns with India’s “Act East” policy.

This policy underscores India’s commitment to actively engage with countries in the East and Southeast Asian regions to foster mutually beneficial relationships and promote peace, stability, and prosperity. By recognising India’s significance and working together to enhance regional cooperation, the U.S. acknowledges the instrumental role India can potentially play in advancing their shared objectives in the Indo-Pacific.

Beyond geopolitics, India offers Washington attractive options such as semiconductor assembly and other manufacturing capabilities, access to critical minerals, opportunities for climate finance, and an ambitious space program. In recognition of India’s potential to diversify global supply chains away from China and support the global transition to sustainable practices, the country is attracting significant inward investments. This involves substantial sums of money directed towards manufacturing facilities and includes agreements to train 60,000 Indian engineers to bolster the nation’s semiconductor development capabilities. The recent visit saw both sides announce extensive agreements spanning defence, critical and emerging technology, healthcare, energy, and transportation. President Biden referred to this as a “next-generation partnership.”

TECH-BASED PARTNERSHIP

The main essence of the emerging partnership is a technologically driven collaboration wherein both sides innovate critical technologies. The General Electric (G.E.) and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for the collaborative production of GE 414 Jet Engines in India is the blueprint for the future when Indian industry will be catapulted in the design and manufacture of the future generation of power plants for its combat and commer- cial air crafts. The Defence Ministries of both nations have inaugurated the first session of an innovation platform called ‘INDUS-X.’ Hosted by the U.S.-India Business Council (USIBC), this platform aims to promote collaboration in the defence industry. Alongside this, several significant announcements emerged from the private sector. Micron Technology, Inc., a leading U.S. semiconductor technology and chip manufacturer, revealed its plans to invest approximately $825 million in a new chip assembly and test facility in Gujarat.

Moreover, the semiconductor production agreements highlight India’s ambitions to emerge as a prominent global manufacturing hub for advanced technologies. By attracting investments and establishing semiconductor manufacturing facilities, India seeks to diminish its reliance on imports and actively contribute to the global supply chain.

In the realm of space cooperation, India has become a signatory to the Artemis Accords, an agreement currently endorsed by 25 countries for collaborative space exploration. Furthermore, the two nations have established a framework for human spaceflight this year and have solidified plans for a joint mission to the International Space Station in 2024.

The icing on the cake came in the form of a pilot programme aimed at streamlining the visa renewal process for select categories of petition-based temporary workers. This programme eliminates the need for applicants to travel abroad to obtain their visa renewal stamp, allowing them to undergo the process domestically. Initially, the programme will cover certain skilled workers’ visas, such as H1B and L visas, with the potential to expand its scope to include other visa categories by 2024.

Assessment

Adaptation and pragmatism are key for fostering a resilient partnership between America and India in this multipolar world ahead. Technology has provided a strategic angle to pursue this partnership. From semiconductors to space programs to defence projects, the partnership seems to be based on a fairly deep and diverse array of projects which could sustain.

The Indian diaspora and industry are positioned to be the defining characteristics of India – U.S. ties in the coming years. The renewal of visas domestically for certain petition-based temporary workers and potentially for H1b and L skilled visas by 2024 is a sign of the power of this community.

However, it is a tough road ahead for the Indian tech industry as with such immense faith reposed on them by the American government and investors, they have to really strive to come up to these expectations and not allow this once-in-lifetime opportunity to slip away due to lethargy, petty politics and misplaced idealism.