Key Data for Swale

Swale in 2011 Key data for Swale

2

1. Geography 1.1

Welcome to Swale

Sheerness Minster-on-Sea

A249

Sittingbourne Faversham M2

This map is based upon Ordnance Survey material with the permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of the controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office Š Crown copyright. Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown copyright and may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings.

Swale Borough Council. Licence number LA079626 2011

1.2

Area 37,340 hectares

1.3. Population density 3.57 persons per hectare

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3

2. Population 2.1

Overall population Swale had an estimated population of 133,400 in 20101. This is an increase of 9.7% since 2000 (compared with an increase of 5.7% in the UK as a whole).

Figure 1: Population by ward:

Ward

Swale Population by Ward Sheppey Central Queenborough and Halfway Minster Cliffs Kemsley Grove Sheerness West Hartlip, Newington and Upchurch Sheerness East Murston Boughton and Courtenay St Michael's Abbey Ward St Ann's Watling Chalkwell Teynham and Lynstead Milton Regis Roman Woodstock Iwade and Lower Halstow Leysdown and Warden East Downs Davington Priory West Downs Borden 0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Population

2.2

Forecast for growth Between 2008 and 2033, Swale’s population is expected to rise by 22.1% to 159,700. This compares with a forecast increase of 22% in Kent (KCC area), and 18% in England.

2.3

Age profile Swale at present has a slightly younger age profile than the country as a whole:

Table 1: Age profile (2010 estimates) Kent & Medway South East (%) (%)

Swale (number)

Swale (%)

0-14

25100

18.8

18.1

17.7

17.5

15-29

24300

18.2

18.4

18.7

20.0

30-44

26200

19.6

19.6

20.3

20.6

45-64

36000

27.0

26.5

26.1

25.3

65+

22100

16.6

17.5

17.2

16.5

1

England (%)

ONS mid-year population estimate.

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4 As with the rest of the country, Swale has an ageing population, and there will be significant increases in the number of older people over the coming decades: Fig. 2: Increases in population by age in Swale, 2004-20292 All ages 0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ 0

2.4

20

Ethnic profile

40

%

60

80

100

Swale’s ethnic profile is marginally less diverse than that of the South East as a whole.

However, ethnic diversity has increased in recent years: in 2001, 98.1% of the population was white, compared with 94.3% in 2009.

Table 3: Ethnic profile, 2009 Swale (%)

Kent & Medway (%)

South East (%)

England (%)

94.3

92.1

90.7

87.5

• British

90.9

88.2

85.7

82.8

• Irish

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.1

• Other

2.7

3.1

4.0

3.6

2.1

4.0

4.2

6.0

• Indian

1.2

2.3

2.1

2.7

• Pakistani

0.3

0.7

1.2

1.9

• Bangladeshi

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.7

• Other

0.3

0.6

0.5

0.7

1.5

2.1

1.8

2.9

• African

0.9

1.2

1.1

1.5

• Caribbean

0.5

0.7

0.6

1.2

• Other

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

Mixed

1.3

1.7

1.7

1.9

Other ethnic group

0.7

1.5

1.5

1.6

White

Asian

Black

2

ONS Sub-national population projections

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5

3. Economy and skills 3.1. Businesses in Swale

Table 4: Firms by size, 2010

In 2010 there were 4,760 businesses in Swale, the great majority of which are small and medium sized enterprises.

Since 2007 the number of businesses with more than 100 employees has reduced by 40%:

No. of employees

Swale Number 3185 770 395 250 60

1-4 5-9 10-49 50-99 100+

Kent & Medway

% 66.9 16.2 13.6 2.1 1.3

% 67.7 15.7 13.4 1.9 1.3

Source: ONS UK Business: Activity, Size and Location

In 2008, there were 3,930 businesses in Swale registered for VAT, an increase of 22% since 2000. This compares favourably with the increase of 10% in Kent and Medway as a whole over the same period.

However, in the most recent year for which data is available, registrations were comparable with the local, regional and national averages, and deregistrations were somewhat worse:

Table 5: VAT registrations, 2007 Swale Number Registrations 405 Deregistrations 340 Stock 3,930

% 10.3 8.7

Kent & Medway % 10.2 7.5

South East % 10.0 7.2

Great Britain % 10.2 7.3

Source: BERR

3.2. Jobs by sector Swale has a particularly high concentration of jobs in manufacturing, compared with the county, regional and national averages:

Table 6: Employment by sector, 2009 Sector Manufacturing Construction Distribution, hotels & restaurants Transport & communications Finance, IT & other business activities Public admin, education & health Other services Tourism-related Total

Jobs 5,900 2,900 9,900 3,300 6,500

% 14.4 5.3 23.1 7.8 15.2

Kent & Medway % 8.9 5.7 26.4 6.6 17.6

11,100 1,700 3,200 44,800

25.8 4.0 7.4

29.1 4.6 7.7

Swale

% 8.1 4.5 24.6 5.9 24.0

Great Britain % 10.2 4.8 23.4 5.8 22.0

25.6 5.6 8.2

27.0 5.6 8.2

South East

Source: Business Register and Employment Survey 2009

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6 However, a comparison of changes in employment by sector over time indicates that the share of employment taken by manufacturing has fallen, with increases especially in public sector jobs.

3.3. Industrial development During the period 2009/10 10,441 sq metres of commercial floorspace were delivered in Swale, the fifth highest of any district in Kent over this period. 35% of this was accounted for in the B use class sector:

Table 7: Commercial Floorspace Completions m2 (Gains) 2009/10 Use Class A1-A5

B1-B8 C1-C2 D1-D2

Shops; Financial and Professional Services; Restaurants and Cafes; Drinking Establishments; Hot Food Takeaways Office; General Industry; Storage/ distribution; Mixed Hotel (Bedrooms); Residential Institutions (Bedrooms) Non Residential Institutions; Assembly/Leisure

Swale

%

KCC Area %

3227

30.9%

17.0%

3634

34.8%

67.5%

105

N/A

N/A

3580

34.2%

15.4%

Source: Kent County Council Commercial Land Use Survey 2009/2010

With regards growth estimates the Swale Employment Land Review (ELR) estimates the broad scale and type of further employment land required for the future, based on a number of different indicators:  Forecasts of employment growth in the main B class sectors;  Projecting forward past take-up trends of employment land, with adjustments if necessary to reflect changing future conditions:  Considering future growth of labour supply and the amount of jobs and employment space that this can support It assessed what scale and type of B class employment land were needed and considered the employment land requirements needed to: support a step change in Swale’s economy; meet demand from expanding indigenous firms and inward investment; move towards higher value, knowledge based activities. The ELR considered a lower and higher growth scenario as detailed in Table 8.

Table 8: Growth Estimates LOWER GROWTH Floorspace (m2) Manufacturing space (B1c/B2) 127,500 Distribution space (B8) 200,000 Office space (B1) 87,500 Total B-class space 415,000

HIGHER GROWTH

Land (ha) Floorspace (m2) Land (ha) 31.9 133,750 33.4 50.0 357500 89.4 18.7 103,750 22.1 100.5 595,000 144.9

Source: Swale Borough Council

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3.4

Jobs density

Table 9: Jobs density (2009)

Jobs density measures the ratio of all jobs to the working age population. Swale’s jobs density is somewhat lower than the county, regional and national levels:

3.5

Density Swale Kent South East Great Britain

Employment by occupation Swale has relatively low numbers of professional occupations, and higher proportions employed in skilled trades and process occupations:

0.61 0.73 0.80 0.78

Source: ONS Note: The density figures represent the ratio of total jobs to population aged 16-64

Table 10: Employment by occupation, Jan 2010 – Dec 2010 Swale

Occupation group Managers and senior officials Professional occupations Associate professional & technical Administrative & secretarial Skilled trades occupations Personal service occupations Sales & customer service occupations Process plant & machine operatives Elementary occupations

Kent

South East

Great Britain

Jobs 8,000 8,800 6,300 8,700 5,900 3,600 5,800

% 13.5 14.8 10.6 14.7 9.9 6.0 9.7

% 15.7 12.8 15.2 11.0 10.3 12.3 6.1

% 18.2 15.3 15.0 11.2 9.5 9.2 7.0

% 15.7 14.0 14.7 10.8 10.2 9.0 7.4

# 9,000

# 15.1

5.2 11.2

4.6 9.7

6.6 11.1

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey Note: Numbers and % are for those 16+ # sample size too small for reliable estimate

3.7. Economic activity and unemployment Economic activity rates are comparable with the national average, although slightly lower than for the Kent and South East region:

Table 12: Economic activity and inactivity, Jan – Sep 2010 Occupation group Economically active • In employment o Employees o Self-employed • Unemployed Economically inactive • Wanting a job • Not wanting a job

Swale

Kent

South East

Great Britain

Number 64,500 59,400 51,100 7,900 5,300 18,400

% 77.2 70.9 61.7 8.7 8.2 22.8

% 79.1 73.0 62.4 10.0 7.8 20.9

% 79.3 74.5 63.7 10.4 6.0 20.7

% 76.2 70.3 60.8 9.1 7.7 23.8

8,600 9,800

10.6 12.1

6.5 14.4

5.5 15.2

5.7 18.1

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey. % are for the working age population. www.swale.gov.uk

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8 3,194 people, or 3.8% of Swale’s working age population were receiving Jobseekers’ Allowance in August 2011– the same as the national figure, but higher than Kent (3.1%) or the South East (2.6%). Although the proportion claiming JSA remains fairly small, there has been an increase of over 76% in the number of claimants during the period Decem ber 2008 and August 2011.

3.8. Workforce skills Qualification levels among the working age population are considerably worse than those for the county, region or country as a whole. This reflects Swale’s traditional industrial structure, and a historic lack of demand for higher skills. In particular, the proportion of the workforce with no qualifications is significantly higher when compared with the South East:

Table 13: Workforce qualifications, Jan-Dec 2010 Qualification level NVQ4 and above NVQ3 and above NVQ2 and above NVQ1 and above Other qualifications No qualifications

Swale Number 20,800 36,100 51,000 61,200 5,200 14,600

% 25.7 44.5 63.0 75.6 6.4 18.0

Kent

South East

Great Britain

% 30.0 49.7 68.9 82.4 6.0 11.7

% 33.9 53.8 70.8 84.1 7.5 8.5

% 31.3 51.0 67.3 80.2 8.5 11.3

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey Note: Numbers and % are for those aged 16-64

3.9. Young people’s attainment School attainment for Swale is slightly higher than the County or England as a whole.

However, the rate of improvement is significantly lower than both the County and England:

Table 14: % of pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 achieving 5+ GCSEs at grades A*-C (and equivalent) including English and Maths Year School

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

The Abbey School Borden Grammar School Fulston Manor School Highsted Grammar School Isle of Sheppey Academy* Queen Elizabeth’s GS Sittingbourne Community Coll.

The Westlands School Swale average Local Authority Average England average

20 94 35 100

36 97 46 100

33 96 41 100

29 88 53 98

97 15

97 19

98 27

99 27

35 92 59 99 30 98 32

% improvement 2006-2010 75.0 -2.1 68.6 -1.0 Not Applicable 1.0 113.3

32 56.1 46.8 45.6

40 62.1 48.5 46.3

38 61.9 50.0 47.6

38 61.7 52.0 49.8

51 62.0 56.8 53.5

59.4 10.05 17.6 14.8

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4. Health and quality of life 4.1

Housing The average annual house price for Swale in 20103 was £179,856 a 4.63% rise on 2009.

However, the average house price falls significantly below the South East (£278,317) and KCC area (£243,376).

The tenure mix in Swale is broadly similar to that of the rest of the country:

Table 15: Housing tenure mix Tenure Owner occupied • Owned outright • Owned on mortgage • Shared ownership Rented • RSL/ local authority • Private rented • Other Total households

Swale Number 36,327 14,598 21,500 229 12,930 7,585 4,013 1,332 49,257

Kent % 74.0 31.4 41.9 0.7 26.1 14.5 8.5 3.1

% 73.7 29.6 43.6 0.5 26.2 15.4 8.1 2.7

South East % 74.0 31.3 41.9 0.8 26.1 14.0 8.8 3.3

Great Britain % 68.8 29.2 38.9 0.7 31.2 19.2 8.8 3.2

Source: ONS 2001 Census

In April 2010 there were 3,395 households on the Housing Register (The “Waiting List”) a decrease of 771 compared with April 20094. However, since 2007 (Qtr 1) and 2010 (Qtr 1) the total number of homelessness decisions has increased by 100%5.

Swale has the third highest number (65) of households in temporary accommodation behind Ashford (105) and Canterbury6 (72)7.

4.2. Crime Levels of crime were slightly higher than for Kent and Medway as a whole in 2010, although crime overall fell:

Table 16: Crime, April 2010 – 31 March 2011 Crime All crime Highest Priority Antisocial behaviour Burglary Robbery Vehicle crime Violence against the person

Swale Kent & Medway Crimes per thousand Change (%) Crimes per thousand Change (%) 69.5 -4.3 63.4 -0.8 22.8

-9.5

18.6

-11.0

8.3 0.3 6.3

-20.9 -28.1 -10.6

7.2 0.5 6.2

-4.2 1.5 -2.6

13.2

-10.1

12.1

-6.1

Source: Kent Police Note: Highest Priority ASB Incidents include teenagers hanging around; alcohol related; vehicle nuisance; substance misuse and vandalism 3

Source: The Land Registry as published in the Kent County Council, House Price and Transactions 2010 annual report.

DCLG (HSSA data) 5 ibid 6 Methodology review in 2010 7 DCLG (HSSA data) 4

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10 Responses from the 2011 Local Area Perception survey indicated that around one in six residents (17%) perceive anti-social behaviour to be a problem, which is a significant improvement on 2010 (22%), taking us from the worst quartile in 2008 almost down to the national median (just under 17%) in 2011.

Figure 3: shows residents’ perception against a number of specific anti-social issues.

ProporƟon who think the following are a very/fairy big problem Abandoned or burnt out car Vandalism, graĸƫ and other deliberate damage Rubbish or other liƩer lying around

2011

Teenagers hanging around on streets

2010

Noisy neighbours or loud parƟes

2008/09

People being drunk or rowdy in public spaces

2006/07

People using or dealing drugs 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

%

4.3. Health General Health Swale’s health indicators are among the worst in Kent, Obesity rates are the highest in the Kent and among the worst in the country. Swale’s children are the least physically active in the county and the percentage of people diagnosed with diabetes is the second highest. Life expectancy for both males and females is the lowest in Kent and below regional and national averages.

Table 17: Selected health indicators Indicator

Swale

Kent

77.3 81.1 30.2 38.9 6.26

78.8 82.6 26.3 54.1 5.43

Average male life expectancy Average female life expectancy % adults who are obese % physically active children % people diagnosed with diabetes

South East* 79.3 83.1 24.7 52.9 5.05

England 78.3 82.3 24.2 55.1 5.4

Source: Department of Health. © Crown Copyright 2011 *South East = South East Strategic Health Authority area

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11 Teen pregnancy rates remain high, although they are falling faster than the rates for England as a whole.

Figure 4: Teen Pregnancy Rates - Swale and All England 2009-2011 60.00

Per 1,000 population

50.00

40.00

30.00

Swale England

20.00

10.00

0.00 2009

2010

2011

Year

Life expectancy is 7.7 years lower for men and 4.9 years lower for women in the most deprived areas of Swale than in the least deprived areas.

Figure 5: Life expectancy at birth 84.00 82.00

Age in years

80.00 78.00 76.00

Males Females

74.00 72.00 70.00 68.00 Quintile 1

Quintile 2

Quintile 3

Q1 = Least deprived

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Quintile 4

Quintile 5

Q5 = Most deprived

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4.4

Fuel Poverty Estimated number of households

Estimated number of households in fuel poverty

% of households fuel poor

Swale

52,987

6,595

12.4%

Kent

577,468

66,112

11.4%

3,450,282

342,381

9.9%

LA Name

South East

Source: Department of Energy and Climate Change

Although Swale is only the fifth most fuel deprived borough in the county, it is still above the Kent average and well above the average for fuel poverty in the South East.

5. Deprivation 5.1. Overall deprivation (Index of Multiple Deprivation) The table below shows the Index of Multiple Deprivation ranking of Swale against all local authority areas in England in both 2007 and 2010, as compared to all areas in Kent.

Local Authority Area Thanet Shepway Swale Dover Medway Gravesham Canterbury Dartford Ashford Maidstone Tunbridge Wells Tonbridge and Malling Sevenoaks

2010 Rank of Average Score (out of 326)

2007 Rank of Average Score (out of 326)

Change in Rank 2007-2010

49 97 99 127 132 142 166 175 198 217 249 268 276

60 114 108 142 139 132 180 170 206 225 250 256 270

-11 -17 -9 -15 -7 10 -14 5 -8 -8 -1 12 6

NB: IMD2007 ranks presented here will differ to those published previously. A new administrative geography came into effect in April 2009, to which the IMD2010 has been released. To allow comparisons the IMD2007 has been recalculated to reflect the new geography, and ranked from 1 to 327

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13 Swale’s relative position has declined to 99th most deprived local authority area in England. The Borough is no longer the second most deprived Local Authority in the County, but now third after Thanet and Shepway, with the latter having experienced the largest fall in rank in Kent.

The map at Appendix 1 shows how deprivation is geographically spread across the Borough, based on LSOA’s. Using these smaller geographical units a more refined analysis can take place.

The headline results are as follows:In the IMD2010 there are 17 super output areas in the worst 20% nationally and 8 in the worst 10%. This is a slight increase on IMD 2007, when these figures were 16 and 7 respectively.

Of the super output areas in the worst 20% nationally 13 are on Sheppey, 2 are in Sittingbourne and 2 are in Faversham. Reduced rankings were seen in 60 of the 82 super output areas in the Borough.

As a proxy measure, we have used a change in average rank across all LSOA’s in Swale to measure the Borough’s relative performance against each of the domains, as described below   Income & Employment domains- relative position worsened between IMD2007 and IMD2010 for both. The underlying data used would have included the early stage of the credit crunch in late 2008, when employment in the Borough was hit hardest and quicker than many other areas.   Education & Skills, remains Swale’s weakest area, but this saw improvement in relative performance between IMD2007 and IMD2010   Housing & Access to Services also saw a relative improvement in its performance between the two data sets   Health Deprivation and Disability saw the biggest negative change in rank across the Borough between IMD2007 and IMD2010, with Crime and Disorder and Living Environment rankings also suffering quite substantially.

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6. Perception of Swale as a place to live Overall 70% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live. This is not a significant change from our 2010 result (71%), and maintains our position in the worst quartile when compared with the national 2008 dataset – the all-England figure is 80%. At the sub-district level, residents who live in the Faversham urban area are most satisfied (86%, well into the second quartile nationally), while those in the Sittingbourne urban area are least satisfied (58%).

Figure 1 is essentially a ‘key driver analysis’ – it sets out those facets of community life which respondents ranked as most important in making somewhere a good place to live (increasing in importance from left to right), together with those ranked as most in need of improvement in Swale (in increasing need of improvement from bottom to top).

Figure 6: What is most important and what most needs improving 60

Most in need of improving in Swale (%)

Road and pavement repairs

AcƟviƟes for teenagers

Job prospects

Traĸc congesƟon Shopping faciliƟes Public transport

Clean streets Level of crime

Sports/leisure faciliƟes Aīordable housing Wages/cost of living Community acƟviƟes Level of polluƟon

Other

FaciliƟes for young children

Cultural faciliƟes

Health services Parks/open spaces EducaƟon

Access to nature

0 0

60

Most important in making somewhere a good place to live (%)

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15

Appendix I Map of Deprivation in Swale

This map is based upon Ordnance Survey material with the permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of the controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office Š Crown copyright. Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown copyright and may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings.

Swale Borough Council. Licence number LA079626 2011

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