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IDENTIFYING LOCAL CONFLICT TRENDS IN NORTH AND WEST AFRICA North and West Africa have experienced several waves of violence in previous decades. Most violent attacks are observed in regions that were considered stable 15 years ago, while most of the conflict areas of the 1990s are peaceful today.

Violence includes civil wars, religiously motivated terrorism, rebellions, military coups and communal conflicts. To better understand these trends, SWAC/OECD has further developed its Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi), which allows policy makers to understand how conflict over time is spreading or contracting within and across national borders.

VIOLENCE REACHES A RECORD HIGH In West Africa, violent events and fatalities increased by 3% and 7% in 2023, respectively, compared to 2022. In contrast, violence in North Africa is at a 20-year low. However, since Libya has experienced successive phases of escalation and de-escalation since 2011, the potential for conflict between the various armed groups remains high.

Evolution of violent events by type in North and West Africa, 1997-2023

Source: Authors based on ACLED data (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, 2024, https://acleddata.com/).

HOW THE SCDi WORKS The SCDi leverages over 60 000 violent events from 1997-2023 from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) project across 21 countries in North and West Africa. It divides the region into 6 540 cells, with each cell representing 50 by 50 kilometres. It then classifies the type of conflict in each cell by combining two dimensions of conflict events – their intensity and concentration.

Categories of violence and what they tell us:

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VIOLENCE IS DEEPLY ENTRENCHED In West Africa, violence is repeatedly occurring in the same locations over time. In 2023, clustered high-intensity conflict (blue cells) accounts for 62% of all conflict cells. This indicates that violence is entrenched and intensifying locally across much of West Africa. The violence is often driven by local factors, such as political disputes between communities, access to shared natural resources or grievances left unaddressed by state authorities.

Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi) in North and West Africa, 2023 Types of conflict (2023) 1. Clustered high-intensity 2. Dispersed high-intensity 3. Clustered low-intensity

TUNISIA MOROCCO

4. Dispersed low-intensity New conflict cell in 2023

ALGERIA EGYPT

LIBYA

MAURITANIA MALI

NIGER

CABO VERDE

GAMBIA GUINEABISSAU

BENIN CÔTE D’IVOIRE

LIBERIA 250 500 km

SUDAN

BURKINA FASO GUINEA SIERRA LEONE

0

CHAD

SENEGAL

NIGERIA

TOGO GHANA

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

CAMEROON EQUATORIAL GUINEA

GABON

CONGO

SOUTH SUDAN

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO

Source: Authors based on ACLED data (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, 2024, https://acleddata.com/).

New SCDi metrics enable the comparison of current conflict intensity and concentration scores to historical levels. In 2023, 56% and 54% of cells showed higher levels of conflict intensity and clustering, respectively, compared to the 20-year averages. This indicates that where violence was present in 2023, it was likely to be more intense and more clustered in that location than in the past.

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In the Central Sahel, higher intensity can be found in Liptako-Gourma and the Dogon Country, as well as in previously peaceful regions, on the periphery of major conflicts zones, such as in Burkina Faso. In the Lake Chad region, much of the higher intensity zones are in rural and border regions, including in Niger and Chad. In Nigeria, the Middle Belt and the centre of the Niger Delta region continue to experience increased conflict intensity.

Local conflict intensity in 2023 compared to 20-year average Local conflict intensity (2023) Higher intensity Lower intensity

TUNISIA

MOROCCO

ALGERIA EGYPT

LIBYA

MAURITANIA MALI

CABO VERDE

GAMBIA

GUINEA

BURKINA FASO BENIN CÔTE D’IVOIRE

SIERRA LEONE LIBERIA 250 500 km

CHAD

SENEGAL

GUINEABISSAU

0

NIGER SUDAN

NIGERIA

TOGO GHANA

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

CAMEROON EQUATORIAL GUINEA

GABON

CONGO

SOUTH SUDAN

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO

Note: The map shows cells that have a higher or lower intensity of conflict in 2023 than the average recorded locally from 2003-22.

Source: Authors based on ACLED data (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, 2024, https://acleddata.com/).

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VIOLENCE IS SPREADING TO PREVIOUSLY UNAFFECTED AREAS The SCDi can now identify areas that have become newly violent. In 2023, the SCDi recorded 685 cells experiencing one of the four types of conflict. Out of these cells, 23% had become newly violent since the previous year. For 2022, the percentage was higher at 32%. Over the period 2022-23, there were 383 new cells in conflict, the majority of which are in West Africa. Over the same period, 225 cells experienced violence for the first time since the early 2000s.

New conflict cells in 2022 and 2023 with no violence in the preceding year New cells in conflict 2023 2022

TUNISIA

MOROCCO

ALGERIA EGYPT

LIBYA

MAURITANIA MALI

CABO VERDE

GAMBIA

GUINEA

LIBERIA

SUDAN

BURKINA FASO NIGERIA CÔTE GHANA BENIN D’IVOIRE TOGO

SIERRA LEONE

250 500 km

CHAD

SENEGAL

GUINEABISSAU

0

NIGER

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

CAMEROON EQUATORIAL GUINEA

GABON

CONGO

SOUTH SUDAN

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO

Note: The map shows cells in which conflict was observed for the first time in 2022 or 2023 that had not been conflictual the preceding year.

Source: Authors based on ACLED data (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, 2024, https://acleddata.com/).

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Four countries – Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Nigeria – account for 68% of areas newly experiencing conflict in 2022 and 2023. However, 11% of those areas were in Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea and Togo, highlighting the diffusion of violence from the Sahel to the Gulf of Guinea. Most violent events in these states in 2022-23 were attacks against civilians (67%) followed by battles between armed groups (29%) and explosions or other forms of remote violence (4%).

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THE FRAGMENTATION OF CONFLICT NETWORKS IN NORTH AND WEST AFRICA Many actors are involved in conflict, including state forces, rebel groups and extremist organisations. Their relationships are complex and remain poorly understood. SWAC/OECD helps fill this knowledge gap by mapping the evolution of relationships between over 3 800 actors involved in conflict from 1997-2023.

These relationships take the form of rivalries and alliances. Rivalries refer to a conflictual relationship between two actors that results in a violent event; alliances refer to co-operative relationships.

Relationships between actors in conflict are volatile. Organisations can be allies one day, fight each other the next and co-operate later again. SWAC/OECD monitors how co-operative and rivalrous ties between violent actors change over time at the regional level and in major conflict areas using a relational approach to conflict called dynamic social network analysis.

MORE VIOLENT ACTORS, INCREASED FRAGMENTATION Since the late 2000s, the number of actors involved in violence has increased consistently. The conflict network has become increasingly fragmented and dominated by rivalries compared to alliances since the early 2010s. This has catastrophic consequences for the stability of the region and the security of civilians.

Actors involved in alliances and rivalries in North and West Africa, 1997-2023 Number of actors

Alliances

Rivalries

1 000

750

500

250

23

22

20

21

20

20

20

19

20

18

20

17

20

16

20

15

20

14

20

13

20

12

20

11

20

10

20

09

20

08

20

07

20

06

20

05

20

04

20

03

20

02

20

01

20

00

20

99

20

98

19

19

19

97

*

0

Note: 2023 data are projections based on the number of events recorded through 30 June doubling to year end.

Source: Authors based on ACLED data (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, 2024, https://acleddata.com/).

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Militias represent half of the actors in conflict in North and West Africa. These nonprofessional armed groups are often used by states, religious and community leaders to strengthen local power, gain better access to natural resources and settle disputes with little regard for human rights. The impact of their activities is reflected in the strong increase in the number of civilians affected by violence across the region.

ACLED reports that 8 116 civilians were killed in 2022 in North and West Africa, compared to 1 532 in 2012. Since the end of the civil unrest that followed the Arab Spring and the civil war in Libya, most civilian victims have been in West Africa, particularly in five countries: Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Mali, Cameroon and Niger.

Actors in conflict by type in North and West Africa, 1997-2023

Note: 2023 data are projections based on the number of events recorded through 30 June doubling to year end.

Source: Authors based on ACLED data (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, 2024, https://acleddata.com/).

CONFLICT IS CENTRALISED AROUND A FEW POWERFUL ACTORS Sociograms are a novel way to represent relationships between actors in conflict.

In North and West Africa, this representation shows that the conflict environment is increasingly centred around a few exceptionally violent actors that consolidate their power through alliances or the destruction of their enemies. There are very few isolated groups of actors. This reflects the fact that the region has become one large theatre of military conflict in which violent activities are no longer isolated but part of a wider conflict environment.

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Together, the growing number of actors involved in conflict, the increasing density of rivalrous relationships and the growing polarisation of conflict networks around a few major actors are extremely worrying for the future of the region. Not only do they make peaceful efforts more difficult than ever, but they also contribute to increasing the number of potential victims among the civilian population.

Rivalry network in North and West Africa, 2023

Note: Data are available through 30 June 2023. The width of the ties is proportional to the number of rivalrous ties between actors involved in violent events in North and West Africa. The size of the nodes is proportional to the number of ties they have with other actors (degree centrality). BFA=Burkina Faso, MLI=Mali, NGA=Nigeria.

Source: Authors based on ACLED data (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, 2024, https://acleddata.com/).

Nigerian civilians occupy the centre of the rivalry network, as they are targeted by governmental forces, extremist violent organisations and other armed groups. In the first six months of 2023, 527 clashes between unidentified armed groups and civilians were recorded by ACLED in Nigeria, resulting in 554 deaths. In the Central Sahel, the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslim or Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) is not only the largest coalition of jihadist organisations in the region but also the one with the largest number of enemies. JNIM is fighting military forces in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, ethnic militias such as Dan Na Ambassagou, self-defence groups such as the Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP), other jihadist groups such as the Islamic State Sahel Province (IS Sahel) and civilians.

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FIND OUT MORE Club

https://www.oecd.org/swac/

https://mapping-africa-transformations.org/

https://twitter.com/SWAC_OECD

www.facebook.com/OECDSWAC

www.linkedin.com/company/ sahel-and-west-africa-club

FURTHER READING: The fragmentation of conflict networks in North and West Africa

Explore the SCDi on SWAC’s Mapping Territorial Transformations in Africa (MAPTA) platform. MAPTA provides data and cutting-edge tools to explore challenges facing the African continent.

Learn about the SCDi through this short, animated explainer video.

Identifying local conflict trends in North and West Africa

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This work was carried out in cooperation with the University of Florida Sahel Research Group. The papers are part of the West African Papers series, which explores African socio-economic, political and security transformations, interactions and effects.