Maps facts: Food issues (demographic, urban, migration and security challenges)

No.2, NOVEMBER 2016

MaPs & FaCTs

fooD issues

www.food-security.net

DeMOGraPHiC, UrBaN, MiGraTiON aND seCUriTy CHalleNGes SAHEL AND WEST AFRICA

UEMOA

Club Secretariat

About the RPCA Promoting dialogue and co-ordination, building a coherent and shared understanding of the food and nutrition situation, and nurturing decision-making: these objectives have been at the heart of the Food Crisis Prevention Network’s (RPCA) mission for over 30 years. Created in 1984, the RPCA is an international network for co-operation and co-ordination under the political leadership of the Commissions of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA). Co-ordinated jointly by the Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) and the Sahel and West Africa Club Secretariat (SWAC/OECD), the RPCA brings together the region’s key food and nutrition security stakeholders: representatives of Sahelian and West African countries, regional organisations, regional and international information systems, bilateral and multilateral co-operation agencies, humanitarian agencies and international NGOs, agricultural professional organisations, civil society and the private sector.

This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

We encourage the use of our maps. Please include the SWAC’s copyright, and inform or contact us for specific requests: swac.contact@oecd.org Photos: Nutrition training, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, 2016 © OECD/SWAC

Contents demographic trends p. 6

Migration p. 22

• In numbers • West African agriculture has risen to the challenge of population growth • Undernourishment has decreased • 35 million people are still undernourished • Chronic malnutrition persists • West African girls are married off too young • The education of girls contributes to reducing fertility • Population policies

• Less than a third of West African migrants leaves the African continent • High regional mobility • Three sub-regional migration areas • Social and business networks • Sahelian migration within the region • Migrant remittances • Half a million refugees in Chad and Niger

Urbanisation p. 14 • Irreversible urbanisation • More and bigger cities • A dense network of small and medium-sized agglomerations • The rural population continues to grow but the urban population is catching up • The city is the engine of the food economy • The food economy: a primary source of employment • The city as an accelerator of demographic transition • Food security in cities

At the crossroads of food & security challenges p. 29 • Security threats exacerbate structural weaknesses • The example of north-eastern Nigeria • The example of Niger • The example of Chad

Three priorities p. 33 • Food crisis prevention & management • Resilience • Growth & employment

At a glance

T

his latest edition in the “Maps & Facts” series looks at the demographic, urban, migration and security challenges in the Sahel and West Africa through the lens of food issues. It complements the “Maps & Facts” issue on climate and climate change that was produced in November 2015 for COP 21 (page 36).

This document promotes the following key message: the challenges facing food security should not be overshadowed by the resurgence of demographic, migration and security concerns on the international agenda.

Rather, food security is closely related to these issues, and should be considered as part of the solution to the challenges they raise.

Food issues are at the heart of the West Food issues must therefore remain at the African economy and society; ignoring centre of all reflection, policy and action – their importance would be a strategic error. from food crisis prevention, to economic The business of making food for human development, to building the resilience of the consumption, including all elements of most vulnerable people. the value chain – production, processing and distribution – is the largest sector in the region, far ahead of oil, cash crops or industry. The food sector is key for creating more jobs, stimulating stronger and more inclusive growth, The challenges facing food security should opening up a wider field of opportunities not be overshadowed by the resurgence of for agr icultur al demographic, migration and security concerns producers and other entrepreneurs, and on the international agenda. Rather, food pulling the most security is closely related to these issues, and vulnerable out of should be considered as part of the solution to poverty and insecurity.

“

the challenges they raise.”

© Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

5

Demographic trends In Numbers Over the past three decades, the population of West Africa has more than doubled. Every year, ten million children are born and another ten million children are of age to attend school. Education, health, access to drinking water, food, jobs and the environment are all challenges made even more difficult by high population growth. In 2015, the population of West Africa exceeded 370 million people. To project the population size in the years leading up to 2050, the United Nations uses four projection scenarios that differ only in the total fertility rate used. The most commonly used scenario is the average fertility rate.

In West Africa, the difference between the average rate and the lowest growth scenario (anticipating a sharp decline in fertility) is about 70 million people. It is this scenario that should be the benchmark for development policies. The goal is less to limit the growth in the number of inhabitants, than it is to reduce the proportion of very young people within the total population. At the end of the last century, children aged 0-14 years, accounted for 45% of the population. If fertility declines rapidly, in 35 years, that category will be no more than 32% of the population (Figure 1). During the phase of demographic transition marked by declines in fertility, the decrease in the number of dependent persons per active person frees up the ability of people to save and invest productively, a key driver of strong, sustainable growth.

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Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

Figure 1 West African population, 1950-2050 in millions

% 50

800 700

45

600 500

40

400 300

200

35 Total population

% of children aged 0-14 years

30

100 25

0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 years

Total population - low projection Population- totale, avec projections faibles Total population median-variant projection Population totale, (0-14 avec projections médianes Percentage of children years) - low projection Pourcentage des 0-14 avec projections faibles Percentage of children (0-14ans, years) - median-variant projection Pourcentage des 0-14 ans, avec projections médianes

Source: United Nations (2015), World Population Prospects

© Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

Demographic trends

West African agriculture has risen to the challenge of population growth Figure 2

After two decades of stagnation, agriculture took off in the middle of the 1980s. In 30 years, agricultural production has increased at a much faster rate than the population and the supply of locallyproduced food increased from 1 700 to 2 400 kilocalories per person per day (Kcal/person/day). In most West African countries, dependence on food imports has not increased. This represented 20% (kcal/person/ day) in 1980 and is similar today. With massive campaigns to promote the rice sector and off-season farming, rice imports grew only 3.5 kg/per person in 30 years. These achievements, which might have been even better if several countries had not experienced prolonged periods of conflict and instability, are a credit to West African farmers, agricultural producers, traders, transporters and processors. They have been able to respond to strong and steady increases in demand. In 1950, nine out of ten households were farmers. In 2010, the numbers have decreased to five out of ten. A decreasing proportion of the population has to feed the other part of the population, which is rapidly increasing. They have only been able to do this because of steady improvements in agricultural labour productivity which, after years of falling short, has been increasing since 1980 at the impressive rate of 2.6% per year. Yields have also increased, but less robustly. This is not surprising; as long as land is easily accessible, farmers prefer to increase their production by increasing the amount of land they cultivate.

© Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

Food supplyFood from domestic production supply from domestic production

Mali Ghana Burkina Faso West Africa Nigeria Niger Sierra Leone Guinea Côte d'Ivoire Chad Togo Guinea-Bissau Benin Liberia Senegal Gambia Mauritania Cabo Verde

1980 2010 kcal/person/day 0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000 2 261 2 500

Sources: OECD/SWAC (2015) Sources :FAO FAO(2015); 2015 ; CSAO/OCDE 2015

Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

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Demographic trends

undernourishment has decreased The West Africa region leads the continent in progress toward reducing the number of people suffering from hunger and malnutrition. Despite rapid population growth across the region and recurrent droughts in the Sahel, West Africa has reduced the prevalence of undernourishment by 60% over the last two decades, from 24.2% in 1990-92 to 9.6% in 2014-16. Ghana and Mali have achieved both the Millennium Development Goal target of cutting in half the proportion of people who suffer from hunger (MDG 1c) and the World Food Summit target of halving the absolute number of undernourished people by 2015.

Map 1 Progress towards achieving food security World Food Summit target (2014-16) Halve the number of undernourished people by 2015

Target achieved Close to reaching the target Slow progress

MDG 1c target (2014-16) Halve the proportion of people who suffer from hunger (1990-2015)

Off-track Not assessed Non Sub-Saharan countries

Source: FAO (2015), Regional Overview of Food Insecurity in Africa

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Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

Š Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

Demographic trends

35 million people are still undernourished Despite a significant decrease in undernourishment, many West Africans have been left behind. 10% of the population – around 35 million people – still suffer from chronic undernourishment or malnutrition. Among those particularly touched are the households of farmers excluded from the market, agro-pastoralists or pastoralists over-dependent on livestock and threatened by repeated droughts, and poor workers in the informal economy. These people – mostly women and children – are structurally vulnerable and unable to withstand the recurring shocks caused by droughts, floods, crop-destroying pests, economic crises and conflicts.

Figure 3 Prevalence of undernourishment 2008–10 2000–02 1990–92

Mali Nigeria Ghana Mauritania West Africa

11% = West African weighted average

without Cabo Verde

Niger Gambia Benin Côte d’Ivoire Senegal Guinea Togo Burkina Faso Guinea-Bissau Sierra Leone Liberia Chad 10

Sources: FAO (2015); OECD/SWAC (2015) © Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

20

30

40

50

60

%

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Demographic trends

Chronic malnutrition persists Malnutrition is, first and foremost, a chronic problem. Rates of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) in the Sahel have exceeded the alert threshold of 10% for at least the past 15 years. In many areas, they regularly exceed the emergency threshold of 15%.

Nearly 40% of children under five years of age are stunted. Many factors explain this situation: poverty that limits access to food, weak social protection systems, poor health situation, etc. This is very much a structural problem that emphasises the need to address the root causes of food insecurity and which confirms the relevance of the Global Alliance for Resilience (AGIR, page 34). With the exception of Cabo Verde, a country that does not have any particular difficulties, all Sahelian and West African countries have joined the SUN Movement, a global initiative to improve nutrition. In 2014, ECOWAS launched its own Zero Hunger Initiative.

Map 2 Prevalence of stunting (% of children, 0-5 years) 2000-06 Mauritania 35%

Mali 38%

Senegal 16% Gambia Burkina Faso 22% 35% GuineaGuinea Benin Bissau 35% 38% 41% Côte Togo Sierra Leone d’Ivoire Ghana 24% 40% 22% Liberia 34% 39%

Niger 50%

Chad 41%

Nigeria 38%

2015

Mauritania 22%

< 20% 20 < 30% 30 < 40% ≥ 40%

Mali 38.5%

Senegal 19.4% Gambia 24.5% Burkina Faso 32.9% GuineaGuinea Benin Bissau 31.3% 34% 27.6% Sierra Leone Côte Togo d’Ivoire Ghana 27.5% 37.9% 29.6% 18.8% Liberia 32.1%

Niger 43%

Chad 38.7%

Nigeria 32.9%

Sources: UNICEF, WHO (2013); UNICEF, WHO, World Bank (2015); Global Nutrition Report 2015

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© Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

Demographic trends

West African girls are married off too young Les jeunes filles ouest-africaines se marient trop jeunes

Map 3 Percentage of young women (20-24 years) married before age 18 Seven West African countries rank among Pourcentage de jeunes femmes (20-24 ans) mariées avant l'âge de 18 ans the top 20 countries in the world with the highest rate of child marriage: Niger (1), Chad (3), Mali (5), Guinea (6), Burkina Faso (8), Sierra Leone (13) and Nigeria (14). In Niger, three out of four girls marry before their 18 th birthday, contributing to the highest fertility rate in the world of more than seven Mauritania 34% children per woman. Nigeria and Niger Mali 55% Niger are among the top 20 countries with the 76% Chad Senegal highest absolute number of child marriages, 33% 68% Gambia with 1.193 million and 244 000 married girls, 36% Burkina Faso respectively. Child marriage reinforces gender 32.9 % GuineaGuinea Benin Bissau 22% inequality and violates human rights by 52% Nigeria 32% Côte depriving young girls of the opportunity to fulfil 43% Togo Sierra Leone Ghana 25% d’Ivoire 44% their potential. The region is collectively 21% 33% Liberia losing a huge, undeveloped human capital.

38% < 30% In 2014, the African Union launched a campaign 30 < 50% to accelerate change across the continent.

50 < 75% Burkina Faso, Chad, Ghana, Mali and Niger < 30 % ≥ 75% Sources : UNICEF, Rapport sur la situation des enfants dans le monde 2015 ; Girls not Brides have launched national campaigns to end 30 < 50 % © 2016. Secrétariat du Club du Sahel et de l'Afrique de l'Ouest (CSAO/OCDE) child marriage.

Sources: UNICEF (2015), State of the World’s Children 2015; Girls Not Brides 50 < 75 % ≥ 75 %

© Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

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Demographic trends

The education of girls contributes to reducing fertility The number of children per woman of childbearing age (five West African countries are among the top 10 in the world) is significantly correlated to the prevalence of early marriage, the fertility rate of girls and their level of education. Significant efforts are being made in the area of education, however, the effect is mitigated by the rate of population growth. In Mali, children under five are half as likely to experience stunting if the mother has attended middle school. The demographic transition and the fight against malnutrition rely heavily on the condition of girls and women.

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*Data refer to the most recent year available during the period specified.

Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

Table 1 Fertility and school enrolment Country

Cabo Verde Ghana Mauritania Togo Liberia Sierra Leone Benin Guinea-Bissau Côte d'Ivoire Guinea Senegal Burkina Faso Nigeria Gambia chad Mali Niger

Fertility rate % (2010-15*)

Birth rate Girls (14‑18 years) per 1 000

2.4 4.2 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.3 6.4 7.6

92 65 71 77 147 131 98 137 125 154 80 136 123 88 203 178 210

primary school net Literacy rate attendance rate girls (15-24 years) Girls, % (2011-14*) % (2006-13*) 70 62 87 43 74 73 62 66 53 66 50 66 66 48 50 46

98 83 48 73 37 56 31 71 39 22 71 33 58 67 46 34 15

Sources: UNFPA (2015) ; UNICEF (2015), State of the World’s Children 2015 © Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

Demographic trends

Population policies Since the 1960s, mortality has declined steadily due to advances in medicine, immunisation and improved access to basic services like drinking water. Population policies should have resulted in a decline in natality greater than mortality to accelerate the demographic transition. However, this was not the case. Such policies suffer from a lack of political support and from strong socio-cultural restrictions. They should now be placed at the centre of development strategies to benefit from increased financial and human resources and thereby influence policies across all sectors. Population policies should include the distribution of modern and traditional forms of contraception and should use the media to inform people about the benefits of lower birth rates. The least resilient and most vulnerable and marginalised women should be prioritised, especially the poor and those who have limited access to education, healthcare and a regular, healthy diet. Policies should also draw on urbanisation as a strong factor for change (page 14). © Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

Delays in the decline of the fertility rate will pose serious challenges to the improvement of food and nutrition security. Food security policies should take

the speed of the demographic transition into account - especially in countries where this transition is less advanced - in order to accelerate its completion.

Figure 4 Birth and death rates in West Africa* (‰) 50

46.7

47.4

47.8

46.8 43.5

Birth rate

41.3

40

40.1

30 28.4 25.2

20

21.7

18.8

17.5

10

15.3

13.7

Death rate 0

1950–55

1960–65

1970–75

1980–85

1990–95

2000–05 2005–10

*without Chad Sources: OECD/SWAC (2013), Settlement, Market and Food Security; United Nations (2010) Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

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Urbanisation

Mauritania

Cabo Verde

Mali

Niger Chad

Senegal

Gambia

GuineaBissau

Burkina Faso Benin

Guinea

irreversible urbanisation Sierra Leone

Liberia

Africa is the least urbanised continent in the world, but an irreversible urban transition is very much underway. In West Africa, the number of urban agglomerations increased from 152 in 1950 to almost 2 000 in 2010. Today towns and cities are home to nearly 50% of the region’s total population. At only 18%, Niger remains one of the least urbanised countries in the world, comparable with Burundi and Ethiopia.

Mauritania

Cabo Verde

Gambia

Mali

Chad

GuineaBissau

Guinea

Liberia

Burkina Faso Benin Côte Togo d’Ivoire Ghana

Nigeria

2010

> 25 < 40% 40 < 50%

Mauritania

Cabo Verde

1950 Gambia

Mali

Chad

Senegal

Chad

Guinea

Burkina Faso Benin

Côte Togo d’Ivoire Ghana Liberia

Sierra Leone

Niger

Niger

Senegal

GuineaBissau

Mauritania Mali

Niger

Senegal

Map 4 Levels of urbanisation

Cabo Verde

Nigeria

1980

Sierra Leone

< 10% 10-25%

Côte Togo d’Ivoire Ghana

Nigeria

Gambia GuineaBissau

Sierra Leone Liberia

14

Burkina Faso Benin

Guinea

Côte Togo d’Ivoire Ghana

Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

Nigeria

Source: OECD/SWAC (2013), Settlement, Market and Food Security

© Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

Urbanisation

More and bigger cities Beyond the megacities, a dense network of small and medium-sized cities is growing. This is helping to shape national urban networks and to increasingly connect urban and rural populations.

Map 5 Urban agglomerations with more than 10 000 inhabitants 1980

770 urban agglomerations

10 000 - 30 000

30 000 - 100 000

100 000 - 350 000

350 000 - 1 million

1- 2 million

2010

> 2 million

1 947 urban agglomerations

Number of inhabitants 10 000 - 30 000 30 000 - 100 000 100 000 - 350 000 350 000 - 1 million 1-2 million > 2 million

Source: OECD/SWAC (2016) 10 000 - 30 000

Š Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

30 000 - 100 000

100 000 - 350 000

350 000 - 1 million

1- 2 million

> 2 million

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Urbanisation

A DENSE network of Small and medium-sized agglomerations Map 6 Rural density and urban networks cities (inhabitants) 10 000 - 25 000 25 000 - 50 000 50 000 - 150 000 150 000 - 500 000 500 000 - 2 million > 2 million

Rural density (inhabitants/km2) <2 2 - 15 > 15 - 50 > 50 - 150 > 150 Source: OECD/SWAC (2013), Settlement, Market and Food Security

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© Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

0

Urbanisation

The rural population continues to grow but the urban population is catching up Figure 5 Rural and urban populations in West Africa

1990

Rural population 2000Urban 2010population 2020 2030

1950 8.4% 91.6%

in millions

2040

2000 34.7% 65.3%

2050

2050 37.3% 62.7%

600 500 400 300 200 100

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

1950

Source: United Nations (2015), World Population Prospects

Rural population Urban population

Š Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

8.4% 91.6%

2020

2030

2000 34.7% 65.3%

2040

2050

2050 37.3% 62.7%

Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

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uRbAnisAtion

the City IS THE ENGINE OF THE FOOD ECONOMY Rural populations tend to concentrate in areas near cities. The growth of cities therefore stimulates the integration of rural and urban areas, and the vector of integration is trade. markets provide at least two-thirds of household food consumption in West Africa. In addition, about one-quarter of the rural population works outside of the agricultural, livestock and fisheries sectors. The urban, informal sector largely depends on transportation, processing and the sale of food products. A food economy is rapidly developing between rural and urban areas, which, in 2010, was estimated at USD 178 billion, or 36% of the regional GDP.

Figure 6 share of regional food gdp by country*, 2010

1970

1980

Other West African countries Burkina Faso 1.6% Benin 1.9% Mali 1.9% Senegal 3.4% Côte d'Ivoire 3.8%

Regional food GDP

Ghana 8.5%

USD 178 billion

Nigeria 71.4%

*GDP expressed in terms of purchasing power parity source: Allen, T. and P. Heinrigs (2016), “Emerging Opportunities in the West African Food Economy”, West African Papers, No. 1, OECD Publishing, Paris.

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© Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

Urbanisation

The food economy: a primary source of employment

© Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

Production processes are frequently artisanal, involving limited mechanisation and standardisation. But these companies are gradually changing and an increasing share of them are investing, mechanisng, professionalising and even industrialising.

As the region’s primary economic sector, the food industry is by far the main source of employment. It should be placed at the centre of strategies to provide jobs for millions of young people and to develop income-generating activities for the most vulnerable populations.

Figure 7 Manufacturing activities in Senegal, 1980-2010 1 000 Value added (million USD)

Agriculture represents only 60% of the food economy. The economic activities that take place upstream (input supply, seeds) and downstream (processing, trade) account for 40%. The food industry is growing faster than agricultural production. It consists of numerous and increasingly complex value chains. For example, processed products based on cereals, whether ready-to-eat products (breads, cookies, cakes) or readyto-use products (flour, meal, grains), go through several stages before reaching the final consumer. They are subject to more or less sophisticated methods of processing, stabilisation and packaging. The raw material was bagged, transported, unloaded, stored, inspected, calibrated, cleaned, crushed, rolled, sometimes dried or roasted, chilled or frozen, packaged, wrapped and sometimes cooked in street restaurants. Apart from a few relatively large industrial structures (breweries, flour mills, etc.), the sector primarily consists of microenterprises and SMEs which are often family-run and informal.

Metallurgy Chemicals Agro-industry

800 600 400 200 0

1980

1990

2000

2010

Source: Allen, T. and P. Heinrigs (2016), “Emerging Opportunities in the West African Food Economy”, West African Papers, No. 1, OECD Publishing, Paris.

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Urbanisation

The city as an accelerator of demographic transition Urbanisation is a powerful force for lowering fertility. It promotes the education of girls and facilitates access to healthcare; it offers more employment opportunities for women; access to information and dissemination of ideas and attitudes happens faster than in rural areas; and housing is more expensive and is, therefore, less spacious.

This phenomenon is proven in West Africa, with variances from one country to another and from one period to another. The continuation of the urban transition should accelerate decreases in fertility and facilitate the downward population trend. Population policies should seize the opportunity to expand on these declines (page 13).

Figure 8 Urbanisation and fertility 8

80

Fertility rate

Level of urbanisation %

6

60

4

40

2

20

0

u l so ad r ia nin in ea e r ia s s a o n e bia e g a a nia oire a na ogo r d e T e am Ch a Fa ige Be b - Bi N n u Ve Iv Gh it i L e L a G N o G a ur e d’ S in r b e a k r a t r M in Sie C Cô Bu Gu Source: OECD/SWAC (2013), Settlement, Market and Food Security e ig

20

Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

r

l Ma

i

0

© Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

Urbanisation

Food security in cities Urban food insecurity is a real problem, the scale of which is likely to increase as urban populations expand. The problem is poorly documented, however, and its unique characteristics should be better taken into account in food and nutrition monitoring systems. In particular, urban households depend almost exclusively on the market for food. Food security, therefore, depends on the level and stability of food prices. And prices depend on how well the entire food chain (production, processing, transportation, storage and distribution) functions (page 35).

These processes might face obstacles and shocks that must be anticipated by food crisis prevention mechanisms. In addition, it is important to take into account the fact that the composition of the household food basket in urban areas is significantly different than that of rural areas.

© Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

Figure 9 Distribution of household food consumption, 2010 Urbain urban

Rural rural

Dairy Beverages Meat & fish Fruits & vegetables Cereals Other food

Source: Allen, T. and P. Heinrigs (2016), “Emerging Opportunities in the West African Food Economy”, West African Papers, No. 1, OECD Publishing, Paris.

Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

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Migration Less than a third of West African migrants leaves the African continent In 2015, the UN estimated the number of West African migrants in the world at 8.7 million. About 66% of them are located in West Africa, 20% in Europe, 8% in North America and the rest are mainly in other parts of Africa. Over time, there has been a slow erosion of the proportion of migrants staying within Africa as more people travel to North America, Europe and, to a lesser extent, Asia.

Figure 11 Country of origin of West African migrants in Europe 2015 1.6 million migrants

Other 22%

Nigeria 25%

Cabo Verde 7% Senegal Mali 6% 17% Côte d’Ivoire Ghana 9% 14%

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Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

Figure 10 West African migrants in the world 1990 5.7 million migrants

0.3% 2.4% 11% 11%

2000 6.4 million migrants

2015 8.7 million migrants 0.6%

0.3% 5.5% 13.3%

8.2%

18.6%

7.6%

75.2%

West Africa Afrique de l’Ouest

73.2%

Rest of Africa Reste de l’Afrique

Europe

65.9%

6.5 %

North America

Europe Amérique du Nord

Asia

Asie

Source: United Nations (2015), Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Trends in International Migrant Stock © Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

migration

High regional mobility West Africans are among the most mobile populations in the world. Intra-regional mobility is almost seven times greater than the volume of migration from West Africa to the rest of the world. The ECOWAS Protocol on the Free Movement of Persons, Residence, and Establishment (1979) favours intra‑regional mobility, although its application still encounters numerous obstacles on the ground. This protocol and its additional texts reflect the political will of ECOWAS member states to place regional mobility at the heart of the regional integration process.

Figure 12 Distribution of West African emigrants, 2015 Burkina Faso Niger Benin Togo Mali Côte d’Ivoire Guinea Mauritania West Africa Liberia Guinea-Bissau Ghana

West Africa Rest of Africa Europe North America Asia Source: United Nations (2015), Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Trends in International Migrant Stock © Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

Sierra Leone Senegal Gambia Nigeria Chad Cabo Verde 10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 %

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migRAtion

THREE SUB-REGIONAL migRAtion AReAs Côte d’ivoire and nigeria make up the two main poles of migration in the region.

They are the main receiving countries for emigrants from neighbouring countries.

Senegal and Gambia make up a third pole of migration. But the official figures belie a much larger migration. The Nigerian Population Commission believes that, although a little over 1 million ECOWAS nationals are officially registered as living in Nigeria, the real numbers could be as high as 3-4 million.

Map 7 West african emigration within West africa, 2015

Mauritania

Cabo Verde

Mali

58%

Niger

20%

Senegal

24%

Gambia

GuineaBissau

43% 47%

Chad 39%

Guinea 20%

24%

29%

Sierra Leone

91%

Côte d’Ivoire

22%

Burkina Faso

80%

Liberia 46%

22%

Benin

Ghana

Togo 38%

32%

Nigeria 21%

39%

28% 22%

39%

55%

Only values greater than 20% of the emigrant workforce from each country present in the other countries of the region are represented. source: United Nations (2015), Departement for Economic and Social Affairs, International Migration Trends

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Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

© Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

migration

SOCIAL AND BUSINESS netWoRKs West African migration forms the basis of strong social and business networks.

These networks contribute to the regional integration of agribusiness markets such as the maize market.

Map 8 regional maize flows

Dakar Niamey Diaobé

Maradi

Ouagadougou

Bamako

Kano Malanville

Bauchi

Bobo Dioulasso Tamale

N’Djamena

Funtua

Sikasso

Gombe

Saminaka

Parakou

Bouaké Kumasi

Abidjan

Ibadan Accra Lome

Lagos Port Harcourt

Principaux flux

Consommation urbaine (tonnes par an)

Major flows

Marchés

Zones de surplus

Urban consumption (tonnes>per year) Gros 40 000 Détail et gros 10 000 – 40 000

Markets

2 000 – 5 000

5 000 – 10 000

2 000 - 5 000 5 000 - 10 000

Assemblage et gros

10 000 - 40 000

40 000

Surplus areas

Wholesale Retail & wholesale Assembly & wholesale

sources: OECD/SWAC (2013), Settlement, Market and Food Security; FewsNet (2012); FAO AgroMaps (2012); Bricas et al. (2009); West Africa Trade Hub (2011) © Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

25

migRAtion

SAHELIAN MIGRATION Within the Region Map 9 places of residence of sahelian emigrants, 2015

Europe 25%

Europe Mauritania burkina faso and mali alone are Mauritania 25% Europe Cabo Verde Mali 7% Cabo Verde Europe 25% responsible for over 28% of West African senegal 14% Mauritania maUritania: 46% Mauritania Europe Europe Cabo Verde Senegal Mali Mauritania 7% Cabo Verde 586 000 EMIGRANTS Europe Mauritania emigrants. Along with Niger and Chad, they Senegal 119 000 EMIGRANTS 43% 25% Mali 25% 14% Cabo Verde 46% 7% Cabo Verde Gambia Europe North Senegal 14% 8% are the countries whose migration trajec- Gambia Mauritania Senegal America 46% Mauritania 43% Mauritania 20% Mauritania Senegal Gambia Mali North Cabo Verde Cabo Verde Mali Gambia Verde 7% Europe Cabo 7% Verde Senegal Guinea 8% 43% tories are most centered on neighbouring CaboGuineaAmericaEurope 14% 20% 14% Gambia 46% North46% Côte 5% Gambia Bissau Senegal Guinea 8% GuineaSenegal America Senegal20% d’Ivoire and nearby countries. Emigrants from 43% Côte Bissau Senegal5% 43% Gambia North Guinea GuineaGambia Gambia 7% d’Ivoire North 8% Gambia 8% America 5% 7% Côte Senegal and Mauritania are more oriented 20% Bissau America 20% Guinea d’Ivoire GuineaGuinea GuineaCôte 7% 5% towards the rest of the world. Cabo Verde Europe Bissau Côte 5% Europe Bissau d’Ivoire mali 10% d’Ivoire 7% 10% has proportionately the largest number 1.005 MILLION EMIGRANTS bUrKina faso 7% Europe of emigrants; its diaspora is larger than its 1.453 MILLION Mauritania 10% Mauritania Europe 6% 6% BurkinaBurkina EMIGRANTS Europe Mali Mali 10% Niger Niger resident population. Seasonal migration Faso Faso 10% Mauritania Senegal 8% Senegal 8% Benin 6% during the lean season in Sahelian countries Gambia Burkina Benin Gambia Mauritania Mali Niger Burkina Europe Burkina Faso Europe 6% SenegalGuinea Mauritania Faso Burkina Togo Côte Mali 8% < 1% Niger is impossible to accurately assess, but is Faso 6% Togo Côte Faso Guinea <Benin 1% Nigeria Burkina d’Ivoire Ghana Côte Nigeria Senegal Gambia Niger 8%Mali Burkina d’Ivoire Ghana Europe Côte 16% Faso Benin 91% d’Ivoire probably in the millions. It is an important Gambia Senegal 8% Faso Burkina 35% 16% Côte EuropeTogo Benin< 1% 91% d’IvoireGuinea Nigeria Gambia Faso Togo d’Ivoire 35% Côte Guinea Côte Burkina < 1% factor in food security since seasonal Ghana Europe Nigeria Faso 16% d’Ivoire Ghana 91% Côte d’Ivoire Côte Togo Guinea < 1% Europe 35% 16% migrants generate additional income and Nigeria 91% d’Ivoire d’Ivoire Ghana < 1% Côte 35% Europe Europe chad 16% 91% d’Ivoire relieve pressure on the environment. < 1% < 1% 35% Europe 208 000 EMIGRANTS Europe < 1% Europe niger < 1% Europe < 1% NigerEurope < 1% 370 000 EMIGRANTS Europe < 1%

Niger

Only values greater than 5% are represented. source: United Nations (2015), Department of Economic and Social Aff airs, Trends in International Migrant Stock

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Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

Burkina Niger Faso Niger Benin Nigeria 21% Burkina Togo Côte 31% Niger Faso 18% d’IvoireBurkina Burkina Benin Ghana Faso 14% Nigeria Faso21% Benin TogoBenin Côte Nigeria Burkina 31% 21% Nigeria 21% Togo 18% Côte d’Ivoire Togo Côte Faso 31% 31% Ghana 18% Benin 18% d’Ivoire 14% d’Ivoire Nigeria Ghana 14% Ghana 21% 14% Togo Côte

18% d’Ivoire Ghana 14%

31%

Chad Nigeria Chad

Nigeria 14%

Sudan Chad 36% Sudan

< 1%

Sudan

South 36% Central 36% African Republic Chad Sudan Cameroon Sudan 5% 26% Nigeria 36% South

14%

Nigeria 14%

Sudan 36%

Chad

Europe < 1%

Central African Sudan 14% South African Congo Central Republic Central African Cameroon 5% Sudan Nigeria Republic 5% Republic Cameroon Cameroon 26% 5% 5% 14%26%

26%

Central African

Republic Congo Cameroon Congo Congo 5% 26% 5% 5% ©

South Sudan South Sudan

Food Crisis5% Prevention Network (RPCA) Congo

migration

Migrant remittances Between 2005 and 2010, officially registered remittances from emigrants to ECOWAS countries increased, on average, by more than 8% per year to nearly USD 23 billion in 2010.

This is twice the amount of foreign investment and 5% of the regional GDP. Nigeria alone accounts for 86% of these inflows. The transfers come mainly from emigrants living in developed countries, but are also significant in countries where the majority of the emigrants reside in West Africa - Togo and Mali, for example. These transfers have a documented impact on poverty reduction and inequality, as well as the food security of vulnerable households.

Figure 13 Migrant remittances, % of GDP, 2014 2015e USD million Liberia

693

Gambia

181

Cabo Verde

201

Senegal

1 614

Togo

397

Mali

895

Guinea-Bissau

64

Ghana

2008

Nigeria

20 658

Benin

304

Burkina Faso

396

Niger

146

Guinea

93

Sierra Leone

66

Côte d’Ivoire

385

e = estimates

5

10

15

20

25

%

Source: World Bank (2016), Data on migration and remittances © Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

27

migRAtion

hAlf A million Refugees IN CHAD AND NIGER At the global level, forced displacement hit a record high in 2015. According to the UNHCR Global Trends 2015, some 65.3 million individuals were forcibly displaced worldwide as a result of persecution, conflict, generalised violence or human rights violations. This is 5.8 million more people than in 2014. Sub-Saharan Africa hosts about 29% of the world’s displaced people. In West Africa, forced displacement is a major concern around the Lake Chad basin. Violence and human rights abuses in northern Nigeria have left nearly 2.2 million people internally displaced. Over 200 000 others are sheltering in neighbouring Cameroun, Chad and Niger. Chad hosts one out of two refugees in West Africa, representing a total of 370 000 refugees plus another 52 000 internally displaced persons (IDPs). Niger hosts some 125 000 refugees and 137 000 IDPs. At the end of 2015, Chad ranked fift h worldwide for its refugees/ inhabitants ratio, hosting 26 refugees per 1 000 inhabitants.

Map 10 internally displaced persons (idps) in africa, 2015

NUMBER OF IDPs

5 million 1 million 100 000 source: UNHCR (2016), Global Trends , Forced Displacement in 2015

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Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

© Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

At the CRossRoADs of fooD & seCuRity ChAllenges seCuRity thReAts ExACERBATE STRUCTURAL WEAKNESSES Niger, Chad and Mali are very fragile countries, combining problems related to their high rates of population growth, poverty and food insecurity. security threats are exacerbating these structural weaknesses. In Sahelian countries, the insecurity-food complex must be addressed via a single, integrated approach. The prevention and management of food crises should go hand in hand with the prevention and management of conflicts and instability.

Achieving stabilisation through development must also integrate food resilience and the development of the food economy (pages 18 and 19).

Map 11 refugees and internally displaced persons linked to current or recent conflicts

Mauritania

Cabo Verde

35 000 Malian refugees

60 000 IDPs

Senegal Gambia GuineaBissau

Mali

Guinea Sierra Leone

15 000 Malian refugees

Niger

20 000 Malian refugees Burkina Faso Benin

Côte d’Ivoire

Togo Ghana

60 000 Nigerian refugees

2 100 000 IDPs Nigeria

Chad

20 000 Nigerian refugees

380 000 Sudanese refugees

100 000 Central African refugees

Liberia

INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS (IDPs) REFUGEE-HOSTING AREA Internally displaced persons Refugee-hosting area

source: UNHCR (2016), Global Trends , Forced Displacement in 2015

© Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

29

At the CRossRoADs of fooD & seCuRity ChAllenges

THE ExAMPLE OF noRth-eAsteRn nigeRiA Of the 9.5 million people in need of food and nutritional assistance in 2016, the majority are located in the Lake Chad basin, where civil insecurity is disrupting markets and destroying the livelihoods of local households. the islamist boko haram insurgency is the main cause of acute malnutrition in this area and the Nigerian government declared a nutritional emergency in the state of Borno in June 2016.

Three million people were in crisis (phase 3), of which 1.86 million were internally displaced (IOM and NEMA, April 2016). This estimate was later revised upwards and according to the Cadre harmonisé analysis, it is estimated at 4.4 million people for the period of June-August 2016. The situation remains unclear due to the fact that many areas are still inaccessible.

Map 12 food insecurity in north-eastern nigeria, october-december 2016 Octobre-décembre 2016

Yusufari Yunusari Machina Nguru Karasuwa Bade Borsari Geidam Bade Jakusko

Yobe Tarmuwa

Fune Nangere Potiskum Fika

Abadam

Lake Chad

Kukawa Guzamala

Mobbar Mobbar

Nganzai

Monguro

Marte

Magumeri

Damaturu

Jere Mafa Maiduguru

Kaga

Konduga

Gujba

Borno Gwoza

Ngala Kala/ Dikwa Balge Bama

Damboa

Gulani

Chibok Biu Madagali Askira/Uba Kwaya Michika Kusar Hawul Hong Bayo Mubi North Shani Girie Mubi South Maina Shelleng Song

Adamawa

Phase 1: Minimal Phase 2: Stressed Phase 3: Crisis Phase 4: Emergency

Lamurde Gombi Numan Demsa Yola North Yola South Fufore MayoBel Jada Ganye Teungo

Phase 5: Famine source: Analysis of the Cadre harmonisé conducted by three teams composed of government representatives, CILSS, FAO and Fews Net, October 2016.

30

Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

© Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

At the crossroads of food & security challenges

The example of Niger Map 13 Niger: Internal fragilities & regional threats

Niger is now facing three threats. In the west, Niger faces the risk of destabilisation coming from northern Mali; in the south, the influence of Boko Haram is growing, and in the north-east, the risks related to the war in Libya represents a serious cause for concern.

A part of the population believes that their legitimate social requests – including those related to food security and resilience – are being relegated to the back burner because of security concerns.

Saharan zone: less than 200 mm of rainfall per year; approximately 600 000 km² and less than 0.5 million inhabitants in its Nigerien zone. Uranium mines and oil.

Sahel’s vulnerable zone: The inter-annual variation of the length of the rainy season exceeds 30%. Approximately 5 million rural inhabitants in its Nigerien zone, predominantly agro-pastoralists.

LIBYA

ALGERIA

Agadez

MALI

Agadem

CHAD

Niamey Dosso

Maradi

Zinder

Diffa

Sokoto Kano

Area regularly faced with food & nutrition insecurity Conflict area

NIGER

Arlit Kidal

Maïduguri

N’Djamena

BOKO HARAM Abuja

Regional diffusion of instability Involuntary migration © Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

NIGERIA Source: OECD/SWAC (2014), An Atlas of the Sahara-Sahel: Geography, Economics and Security Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

31

At the crossroads of food & security challenges

The example of chad The regional security environment is also a concern for Chad, which has a significant security apparatus but is now suffering a sharp drop in its financial resources due to the fall in oil prices. Chad remains one of the poorest countries in the world where chronic food insecurity is a widespread issue for much of the population.

Saharan zone: Less than 200 mm of rainfall per year; approximately 700 000 km² and less than 0.7 million inhabitants in its Chadian zone.

Map 14 Chad: Internal fragilities and regional threats

NIGER Faya Largeau

Area of instability Iriba

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Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

Trafficking (arms, drugs) Abéché

Bol

Oil field Goz-Beïda N’Djamena

SUDAN

Pipeline

Mongo Am Timan

NIGERIA

Bongor Pala

Kelo

Trafficking (arms, drugs)

Pipeline

Regional diffusion of insta

Mao

Conflict area

Oil field

Conflict area

CHAD

Area regularly faced with food and nutrition insecurity

Regional diffusion of instability

Area regularly food and n insecure

Fada

Sahel’s vulnerable zone: The inter-annual variation of the length of the rainy season exceeds 30%; approximately 2 million rural inhabitants in its Chadian zone, predominantly agro-pastoralists.

Area of instability

Saharan zone: less than rainfall per year; appro 700 000 km2 and less th inhabitants in its Chadi Sahel’s vulnerable zone annual variation of the l rainy season exceeds 30 mately 2 million rural in its Chadian part, predo agro-pastoralists.

LIBYA

Moundou

CAMEROON

Koumra Sarh Doba

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

Source: OECD/SWAC (2014), An Atlas of the Sahara-Sahel: Geography, Economics and Security © Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

thRee PRioRities FOOD CRISIS PRevention & mAnAgement

and priority areas of work • Recommendations for decision makers

West Africa has an advantage over other African regions. Created more than 30 years ago, the Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA) unites all stakeholders – national, the prevention and management regional and international – under the political of food and nutrition crises must leadership of ECOWAS remain public policy priorities, and UEMOA. Co-ordinated whatever their cause. jointly by CILSS and the SWAC/OECD Secretariat,

“

”

© Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

mARCh technical meeting • Final assessment of the agricultural campaign at the national and regional levels, in preparation for the RPCA meeting in April

APRil Restricted RPCA meeting 6 • Recommendations for policy makers • Advocacy and informationsharing with representatives from OECD member countries

5

June technical meeting

PRegeC CYCLE

novembeR 3 technical meeting • Harvest outlook • Cereal production & food security and nutrition outlook in preparation of the RPCA annual meeting

• Launch of the agricultural campaign • Preparation for monitoring the rainy season • Review of agro-meteorological & climatic forecasts • Assessment of recommendations implemented since April

1 as

4

Figure 14 pregec cycle

on

it has adopted the Charter for Food Crisis Prevention and Management (PREGEC Charter) and uses common tools such as the Cadre harmonisé to assess food and nutrition situation. the network must adapt to the increasing complexity of the underlying factors of food crises, including conflicts.

It should also help Members take DeCembeR RPCA annual meeting into account the specific food • Provisional assessment of the agricultural campaign vulnerabilities of urban areas.

• Strategic RPCA orientations

se

The prevention and management of food and nutrition crises must remain public policy priorities, whatever their cause (climate shocks, price volatility, economic recession, political tensions, conflict, pandemics) and wherever they strike (rural and urban areas, migration routes, refugee camps and refugee-hosting areas). Prevention and management efforts must be co-ordinated at the regional level, failing which – for example – a crisis alert could be launched by a government according to criteria different from those used in other countries.

le

an

2 sePtembeR technical meeting Provisional assessment of • the agricultural campaign • Harvest scenarios • Action plan for at-risk areas • Monitoring of actions conducted since March

Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

33

Three priorities

Resilience When a crisis occurs, it is counter-productive to separate humanitarian assistance from the fight against endemic poverty and famine. When faced with a crisis of any kind (climatic, economic, social, security), the weakest are also the most vulnerable. Focus must therefore be placed on strengthening their resilience. Increasing the resilience of millions of people is a long-term challenge that is complex by nature because there are often many intersecting causes. The challenge cannot be met without a multisectoral approach based on a political partnership that engages West Africans and their partners. This is the ambition of the Global Alliance for Resilience (AGIR) – Sahel and West Africa. AGIR is not just another initiative or an additional financial opportunity, but it allows food resilience allies to unite around objectives, approaches, tools and a mutually-agreed upon results framework.

The Alliance provides the opportunity for all involved countries to develop a national framework, called NRP-AGIR (National Resilience Priorities). The mission of this framework is to bring together all initiatives, programmes

34

Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

and projects contributing to resilience. AGIR is, therefore, a tool to improve the efficiency of collective action. The Alliance is under the political leadership of ECOWAS and UEMOA and receives technical support from CILSS.

The RPCA is the forum for dialogue among its stakeholders (page 33). The SWAC/OECD Secretariat contributes to the management, promotion and methodological reflections of the Alliance.

Map 15

PRIORITÉS RÉSILIENCE PAYS (PRP-AGIR) Formulation process for the National Resilience Priorities (NRP-AGIR)

Alliance globale pour la résilience - Sahel et Afrique de l’Ouest

November 2016

Mauritania

Cabo Verde

Mali

Niger Chad

Senegal Gambia Burkina Faso

GuineaBissau

Guinea Sierra Leone

Benin Côte d’Ivoire

Ghana

Nigeria

Togo

Liberia

NRP-AGIR validated NRP-AGIR currently under validation NRP-AGIR process launched

© Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

three priorities

gRoWth & emPloyment Economic growth - and its corollary employment - is a constant of many West African public policies and most international strategies for the region. How to find jobs for millions of unemployed youth? How to make the local economy more attractive than migration? How to give hope to young people who maybe be tempted by crime? How to develop a more inclusive and less volatile economy than one that is based on the exportation of oil, gas, minerals and raw agricultural products? These issues are addressed by sector (primary, secondary, tertiary) and by segment (rural/ urban areas, informal/formal sector). The most common approach is to prioritise agriculture (which is often wrongly considered to be equal to the whole rural zone). A more systemic analysis shows that the food economy - rural and urban, primary, secondary and tertiary, formal and informal - is much larger than the agricultural economy alone and has the potential to create more growth and more jobs. Since it focuses on the domestic market, which has a high growth rate, it is not as volatile and should be the keystone of economic policies. © Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

Cross-cutting and multi-sectoral strategies are needed to enhance the food economy’s potential. These strategies should be based,

first and foremost, on the needs of stakeholders and West African professional organisations.

Figure 15 food value chain AGRIBUSINESS

EQUIPMENT modern

INPUT

AGRICULTURE FOR HUMAN NUTRITION

FOOD PROCESSING

FOOD RETAIL

traditional NON NUTRITION USAGE

NON FOOD PROCESSING

FOOD VALUE CHAIN

AGRO-INDUSTRY

Length of the value chain [the number of production stages involved]

source: Allen, T. and P. Heinrigs (2016), “Emerging Opportunities in the West African Food Economy”, West African Papers, No. 1, OECD Publishing, Paris.

Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

35

References This booklet draws on the publications and work conducted by the Sahel and West Africa Club Secretariat (SWAC/OECD): •

• • •

The collection of studies carried out since the 1990s on settlement and demographic trends in West Africa, notably the West Africa Long-Term Perspective Study (WALTPS), OECD Publishing (1998); Settlement, Market and Food Security, West African Studies, OECD Publishing (2013); The Africapolis online database (OECD.Stat); An Atlas of the Sahara-Sahel: Geography, Economics and Security, West African Studies, OECD Publishing (2014);

•

• • •

Other studies published within the West African Studies series: Regional Atlas on West Africa (2008), West African Mobility and Migration Policies of OECD Countries (2008), Regional Challenges of West African Migration (2009), Conflict over Ressources and Terrorism (2013); “Emerging Opportunities in the West African Food Economy”, West African Papers, No. 1, OECD Publishing (2016); The Maps & Facts series published within the SWAC NewsBrief; Work conducted by the Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA).

Maps & Facts, No.1, November 2015 Climate, Climate Change & Resilience

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Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues

© Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

SAHEL AND WEST AFRICA UEMOA

Club Secretariat