Laura Naliaka

Continental Methodology for ICBT Data Collection in Africa Intra-regional food trade in West Africa: Data, initiatives and policy agenda| 12th - 13th Oct 2023

Laura Naliaka N, ECA

Understanding the scale of ICBT in Africa…

These figures are significant and have important implications for the value, composition & sophistication of intra-African trade, particularly among neighboring states

ICBT is equivalent to 7-16 percent of formal Intra-African trade flows

ICBT is equivalent to 30-72 percent of formal trade between neighboring countries

Source: ECA (2021)

Why we need to monitor ICBT in Africa…

To accurately monitor intra-African trade Official trade statistics often capture only formal trade and leave out informal trade, leading to underestimation of the overall intraAfrican trade.

To improve efficiency of ICBT traders & possible formalization ICBT data is crucial in facilitating policy making and designing programmes that respond to the particular needs and challenges of ICBT traders

For design & implementation of gender-sensitive policies ICBT data is key in understanding the different dynamics at play that could inform the development and implementation of gender sensitive trade policies and processes since majority of ICBT traders are women

Why we need to monitor ICBT in Africa…

It could support financial inclusion of the traders Comprehensive information on the characteristics of informal traders could also help financial institutions develop tailored financial products that respond to their specific needs

For accurate macroeconomic modelling Accurate trade statistics are an important input into national accounts and balance of payments statistics and can help improve econometric forecasting models for key macroeconomic variables

For monitoring progress of key initiatives Malabo declaration advocates for increased intra-regional trade in agricultural trade; ICBT data is critical in generating accurate measurements of household food balance sheets

Why Africa needs a common methodology for ICBT data collection…

Definition

Lack of common ICBT definition Some data collection exercises take place along only gazetted routes, others include unofficial routes; Some include smuggling, others consider it to be illegal trade…

Methodology

Differences in methodologies Some methodologies consider the general trade system for compiling international merchandise trade statistics, whereas others adopt a more ad hoc approach…

Challenges in Comparability of the ICBT data sets

Developing the continental methodology for ICBT data collection in Africa…

Virtual inception meeting of the task force members (8th September 2022)

2nd virtual meeting of the task force members (27th October 2022)

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Review and validation of the methodology (1st June 2023)

1st physical meeting of the task force members (25th to 28th April 2023)

Continental Methodology for ICBT Data Collection in Africa

Informal cross-border trade (ICBT) refers to transactions in goods and services between any two or more countries that are not entered in the official records and therefore not included in the official trade statistics.

Continental Methodology for ICBT Data Collection in Africa

Scope: Limited to trade in goods

The competent authority: Overall coordination & oversee the planning, designing & implementation of ICBT data collection activities

Selection criteria for border posts & loading/off-loading sites to be monitored

Selection criteria for border posts & loading/off-loading sites to be monitored

Existence of supporting govt. institutions

Estimated volume, value & variety of ICBT flows

Availability of necessary infrastructure

Observation time frame

Recommended ❖ Daily data collection of ICBT data

Alternative

Time period

❖ A minimum of 1 week should be chosen using random selection or an appropriate sampling procedure in each of the 12 months

❖ 0700hours to 1800hours

❖ Data for remaining weeks to be estimated

❖ Both starting or ending times may be extended for up to 1 hour, if there are indications of significant ICBT flows

Data collection techniques

Interviews

Direct observation & measurement

ICBT DATA COLLECTION Emerging technology

Stock-taking

Periodic qualitative surveys

Data collection Instruments

Predesigned questionnaires

Field instruction manuals

Weighing scales

List of units of measurement & conversion factors

List of commodity categories

Continental Methodology for ICBT Data Collection in Africa: Recording ICBT transactions

General Trade System

Time of recording: The applicable date of recording the transaction is the day on which goods leave or enter the country

Merchandise included and excluded in ICBT data collection

Merchandise included and excluded in ICBT data collection

Included

Excluded

All merchandise leaving or entering the country that is not recorded by customs authorities.

Goods fully (100 per cent) and properly declared, verified and recorded by customs officials on declaration documents

All merchandise passing through formal crossings that is undeclared or underdeclared in customs declaration documents

Goods in transit.

Goods loaded or unloaded at bus terminals or markets and destined for neighboring countries

Goods allowed for temporary importation: commercial samples, goods transported across borders solely for renovation or repair

Continental Methodology for ICBT Data Collection in Africa: Recording ICBT transactions

Sex-disaggregated data: The sex of the owner of the goods should be recorded during ICBT data collection

Units of measurement: packaging of various goods along with the associated units of measurement to be converted to the HS units of measurement.

Key elements to be included in the questionnaire

Key elements to be included in the questionnaire

Name of the site being monitored

Date of trade

Trade flows: exports + imports

Product name (commercial description of the commodity)

Product description (as per HS codes)

HS codes

Key elements to be included in the questionnaire

Product quantity

Means of transport

Unit of measurement of product

Price per unit of measure

Immediate trading partners (country of exportation + importation)

Value of goods

Key elements to be included in the questionnaire

Currency of recorded transactions

Sex of the owner of the products

Continental Methodology for ICBT Data Collection in Africa: Valuation of ICBT transactions

Informal exports: Are to be valued at free on board (FOB) prices

Informal imports: Are to be valued at cost, insurance and freight (CIF) prices

Currency conversion: To be in line with the IMTS manual

Continental Methodology for ICBT Data Collection in Africa: Data compilation, processing & integration

Estimation of ICBT data for unsurveyed weeks/months: Up-rating models + linear interpolation and extrapolation methods

Data processing & integration: The ICBT data should be in the HS format to enable integrating the ICBT data with formal trade statistics.

Data quality and validation and publication and dissemination

Next steps AU statutory processes for the methodology to be adopted by the AU member states

Piloting of the methodology

Institutionalization of ICBT data collection?

THANK YOU!