Dillard-Crawley Feasibility Study Final 5.3.24

Dillard-Crawley Building Feasibility Study May 3, 2024

This study was created for Downtown Blackstone, Inc, by Summit Design and Engineering Services and Complete Community Economies. February 2024.

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DOWNTOWN BLACKSTONE, INC

Contents Introduction................................................................................................................................4 The Property...............................................................................................................................6 Diagnosis....................................................................................................................................6 Main Street Storefront................................................................................................................8 Broad Street Storefront............................................................................................................. 10 Alley Entrance........................................................................................................................... 12 Interior...................................................................................................................................... 14 Market Study............................................................................................................................ 16 Commercial................................................................................................................................17 Market Study............................................................................................................................ 18 Residential................................................................................................................................ 19 Scenario One............................................................................................................................. 22 Workforce Units........................................................................................................................ 23 Scenario Two............................................................................................................................. 28 Short Stay Units........................................................................................................................29 Conclusion................................................................................................................................ 34 Recommendations.................................................................................................................... 35 Appendices............................................................................................................................... 36

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Introduction This report is to provide the Town of Blackstone, Virginia with an evaluation of the feasibility of rehabilitating the property at 114 South Main Street.

The report was created by Summit Design and Engineering Services and Complete Community Economies at the behest of Downtown Blackstone, Inc, and funded by the Virginia Department of Housing and Community Development.

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several antique and other types of businesses sharing the space. There is at least one similar concept business currently located within the Historic Commercial District. After the Mall closed, the building began to suffer from accelerated neglect and damage from deferred maintenance.

It currently is uninhabitable and unusable, and unsafe.

The property consists of two adjoining buildings, one of which runs perpendicular to the South Main Street building and has street frontage at the address of 103 West Broad Street. There is no associated dedicated parking and the current property boundaries run roughly with the existing building’s walls.

Blackstone’s Downtown has seen significant revitalization over the past fifteen years or so, since joining the Virginia Main Street program in 2007.

In that time, the Town has changed its zoning to allow for Downtown residential units and has seen significant investment in upper-story housing and adaptive re-use projects, although there are still plenty of opportunities to create more housing in and near downtown.

The buildings contain approximately 9,208 sf on each of its two floors, for a total of approximately 18,416 sf under roof. According the Blackstone Historic District nomination form, 114 South Main Street was built “ca. 1940” and 103 West Broad Street was built “ca. 1930.” The primary construction material of the building is brick, with interesting historical architectural details which should be preserved in any renovation. In particular, there are basket-weave brick details, terra cotta diamond flourishes on the entablature, glazed lead storefront, and terra cotta tiles on the ground level.

Working together, the Town and Downtown Blackstone, Inc – the Main Street organization – have held several business start-up and expansion programs and promotions. While the Historic Commercial District has benefited from these activities, there are still several vacant or underused storefronts in the district and many of the upper-stories look to be either vacant or poorly maintained. Many of the facades have been rehabbed, but an equal number look to be neglected or have had historically inappropriate and, sometimes, poorly implemented “upgrades” and repairs.

The buildings have had several uses over the years.

At one point the West Broad Street building was known as the “Hardware Company Building.” At another point in the 1980s and 1990s the buildings served as the “Hardware Company Mall,” with

Blackstone’s major economic driver is Fort Barfoot (formerly Fort Pickett). This has long been a joint military training center and has had wide variations in its usage over its history. These changes in use are often accompanied with increases and decreases

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in both the number of staff on site as well as the length of their deployment at the Fort. Therefore, the customer base for Downtown Blackstone has varied significantly over the years and while the Fort has somewhat protected the Town from the economic devastation other communities faced when their manufacturing base abandoned them, these customer-base fluctuations have resulted in some milder “boom and bust” cycles.

Currently, Fort Barfoot hosts the US Department of State’s Foreign Affairs Security Training Center, known as FAST-C. This program began in 2019 and has had a huge impact on Blackstone, with up to 10,000 students running through the program every year. Assignment to FAST-C varies but is typically around twelve weeks and usually under six months. While these student deployments to Fort Barfoot have increased the potential customer base for the region, it also has put a huge strain on affordable housing, as the US government pays a much higher than market rate for shorter term rentals than most Blackstone residents can afford for year-round rents.

The Dillard-Crawley Building has storefront entrances on both Main and Broad Streets, as well as alley access.

Broad Street Building Facade

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The Property The buildings were built as the community was growing due to local manufacturing and as an agricultural commerce hub with access to remote markets via US 460 and the railroad. The community thrived during the post-WW2 cold war military expansion and the Town’s population grew by ~40% between 1940 and 1960. Since then, the population has varied between 3,400 and 3,700 people until 2000, when a slow decline in population began. The population now is estimated to be below 3,300 for the first time since the 1950s.

From the exterior, the building facades appear to retain many of the original features and could be easily returned to their original configurations.

Similarly, the interiors appear to have not been significantly altered since their construction, retaining features such as tin ceilings and wainscoting. The project team was not able to access the interior and therefore cannot confirm the condition of the architectural and design details, but viewed through windows, the retail areas appear to be in good condition but in need of upgrades and repairs.

According to photos shared with the project team, the upper levels and deeper recesses of the building are in very poor condition and are likely a danger to the surrounding buildings. The photographs show dangling wiring, evidence of long-term water exposure, and open wall framing. The entire roof will likely need to be removed and replaced, with the possibility of structural work being necessary, as well. We have assumed that all areas of the building except the front retail areas will require a full “gut” job. This would likely be necessary, in

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any case, to meet modern code requirements and design preferences. Roofing costs in the region are estimated at $15/sf. Although it may be possible to find a lower price, the roof replacement estimate for both buildings is $150,000, which assumes some structural repairs will be necessary. Please note that in today’s construction market, the estimates are likely to be higher and are subject to swift fluctuations.

From our cursory assessment the structure shows no signs of instability, so a structural analysis was not made. No environmental assessment was made, as the Town staff indicated it had no obvious asbestos and was unlikely to have had any underground tanks. However, since it was used as a hardware store, there may have been some hazardous material spills over the years, which would likely be easily remediated.

Diagnosis Overall, the property is not currently in a usable condition, but could be salvaged. New construction of a similar type with similar materials is currently running $300-$450/sf, while high quality historic rehab costs using an experienced, professional, licensed and bonded general contractor are in the $150 - $250/sf range, depending on finishes, Mechanical, Electrical, and Plumbing needs and how divided the finished interior is. It is possible for a property owner to perform the General Contractor duties themselves and save as much as 40% of the rehab costs, but this often has a cost measured in time and, due to the extreme

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deterioration evident in parts of these buildings, is not recommended. Given the condition of the building and current construction costs, we estimate a full historic rehabilitation to cost approximately $3,000,000 and $3,500,000 not including acquisition.

The assessed value of the land is $19,400 and the buildings are assessed at $129,804 for a total

assessed value of $149,204. The location of the parcel provides value to the building, but the building itself has very limited sales value, due to its condition, regardless of the assessed value. It has less than shell building value, because while a shell building is available for almost immediate move-in with custom upfit ready to commence upon sale or lease, this building needs extensive envelope repair (mostly the roof) and interior demolition, both of which have monetary and time costs.

Main Street Building Facade

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Main Street Storefront

Clockwise from left: The storefront entrance on Main Street, varied brick types, existing interior view, portico detail.

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IMPORTANT NOTE: If this building is not stabilized and the envelope secured, it is in danger of succumbing to fire or other collapse. While this would be tragic on its own, the property’s position, integral to the central block of downtown, means that any fire or collapse would certainly damage the properties immediately adjacent, but would have a high likelihood of destroying the entire block, devastating the Historic Commercial District and Blackstone’s economy.

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Broad Street Storefront

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Clockwise from left page: Broad Street storefront, existing interior view, window frame detail, storefront detail.

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Alley Entrance

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Clockwise from top left: broken window detail, brick foundation hold detail, brick detail, view of two building walls from alley including partial connected right-of-way, artistic detail on exterior wall, existing oil tanks, boarded window detail.

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Interior

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Clockwise from top left: “Blackstone Mall” first floor plan, photograph of existing second floor, photograph of former restaurant trash can, photograph of existing detritus, “Blackstone Mall” second floor plans.

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Market Study Blackstone is typical of many southern Virginia Towns in many ways. The one economic piece that is unusual is the proximity to Fort Barfoot and the transient nature of the FAST-C students there.

Summit Design and Engineering Services and Complete Community Economies reviewed ESRI Retail Demand and Market Potential data. In this review, the data confirmed that Blackstone was very “average” in its buying habits, which is unsurprising, given that much of the market is made up of people from all over the United States. In fact, nearly every retail market segment scored between 75 and 125, with the “average” score being 100. Outliers were interesting, but not helpful, as they either included esoteric items such “owns a digital SLR camera or camcorder” (62) or “bought cigarettes at a convenience store” (196).

However, the consistent trends toward overindexing on smaller costs goods (used cars) and less expensive brands (less expensive PCs), while under-indexing on more expensive items (new cars) and higher cost brands (Apple products), as well as travel, indicate that big ticket and luxury

items are retail areas which would not fare well in downtown Blackstone.

When looking at the retail mix of the Main Street District, it trends toward professional services (banks, attorneys, tax prep, etc), personal services (beauty shops, gym, barber), antique & used goods, and lunch & dinner establishments in the central part of the district, and fast food, convenience stores and gas stations/auto repair around the edges. The restaurants are mostly home style cafes or Mexican fare, but there is a brew house next door that focuses on Burgers and other pub fare.

Additionally, there is a jeweler, a carpet flooring retailer/installer, and similar businesses typical of a town that serves as a commercial center for a rural area. There is also a bakery that focuses on the niche of catering and wedding cakes, which is a limited market segment. Significantly, Blackstone is fortunate to retain an independent pharmacy in the Historic Business District.

Union Market, Richmond, VA

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Commercial The retail spaces in the subject building – especially the one fronting on West Broad Street – are long and narrow from front to back and would not be good spaces for small retail or services that don’t require much inventory or service space.

Additionally, the ESRI market data indicates that some of the typical downtown businesses that cater to a more affluent customer may not be feasible, as the market generally trends toward lower priced goods.

With these constraints in mind, and factoring in what commercial activities could enhance Blackstone’s downtown experience, it is recommended that at least one of the spaces be a coffee shop/bakery. This use would also be compatible with specialty foods such as beer/wine and cheese, as well as locally crafted gifts and prepared foods. It may even be possible to have farm fresh eggs and produce available on site. If this concept were to locate in the West Broad Street storefront, they may be able to lease and access the vacant area next door.

The retail space on South Main Street may be a good opportunity for a collectibles and gaming store. While these types of stores have some items that sell for prices in excess of a few hundred dollars, most items fit within the spending patterns of the area. While the index for gaming wasn’t outrageously high, it was above the national average. Most gaming equipment and hardware/software is now purchased online, and collectibles are also often an online purchase. However, a store like this serves the community as a gathering place for those with common interests and a place to pick up “emergency” items. A robust online sales effort

Dillard-Crawley Building Feasibility Study

will help to keep the business afloat and holding tournaments provides regular traffic.

While these businesses have been identified as appropriate for the market and the locations, the pro formas will show the retail areas as a triple net lease income to the developer and the community should work to make sure that the proprietors are well equipped to operate a successful business.

One of the issues that is common in similar markets is that the initial affordable retail rents are below the costs of rehabbing the space and require successful residential rental income to make the project feasible.

Some of the retail/commercial options that are often found in thriving downtowns, but not present in Blackstone are: • Coffee shop • Bakery (bread, etc) • Boutique hotel • Farm to table restaurant • Bicycle/skateboard shop • Used/vintage clothing • Brick-oven pizza • Distillery • Local/regional products • Comics/cards/gaming • Brewery or specialty beer • Yarn and sewing store • Clothing boutique • Outdoor store

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Market Study Multiple data points and anecdotal evidence make it clear that Blackstone is suffering from an affordable housing crisis. This is consistent with all areas of Virginia, though exacerbated in Blackstone. In Virginia’s more rural areas, especially those that have not seen population growth over the past 50 years, the housing stock has not been replenished or updated. Therefore, while there may be sufficient structures, many of those structures are no longer attractive to renters or buyers and some of them have become unfit for habitation.

After researching available rental housing – both short-stay and traditional – it is clear that there is a housing deficit at all price points. Therefore, we endeavored to fit as many residential units as possible into the property. Pro formas were developed for scenarios that included both all traditional rentals and a mix of traditional and short-term rentals. In each scenario, there are a total of 10 residential units ranging from ~570 sf one-bedroom units to a ~1100 sf two-bedroom unit.

Therefore, construction costs should be markedly similar for both options at roughly $3,410,000, including Architecture and Engineering.

In Blackstone, the situation is exacerbated by the pressures of the FAST-C program attracting so many students to the area. These students receive a government housing stipend that out paces the market rates by about 250%, which has resulted in many former workforce housing units transitioned to short stay rentals geared toward FAST-C students.

Example Apartment Unit. Photo credit: Pholig Box Factory

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Residential

Dillard-Crawley Building Feasibility Study

Draft Second Floor Residential Floor Plan, Summit Design and Engineering

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Construction Estimates The construction costs below represent regional industry averages as of January, 2024, but may vary as much as 20% depending on availability of qualified contracting firms, sub-contractors, labor, and materials.

While construction costs are slowly retreating from their 2022 highs, we believe these estimates provide for a high-quality rehabilitation using mid-grade finishes and provide an adequate and accurate point from which to determine the feasibility of the project.

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DOWNTOWN BLACKSTONE, INC

Scenarios To help DBI and the Town decide the best use for the building, two major scenarios were investigated for the building’s development which are displayed on the following pages.

Both scenarios have retail frontage, using the existing Main Street and Broad Street storefronts.

Retail, commercial, or food-oriented uses are the best use within the community revitalization context. The residential units are in the rear – accessed from the parking lot – and on the upper story.

In “Scenario 1,” all ten of the residential units are market priced for local workforce affordability in the 80%-200% AMI range and have a mix of one- and twobedroom units.

In “Scenario 2,” eight of the units are scheduled for FAST-C temporary housing and rented at the most recent published government housing allowance rate of $2,592 per month. The other two units remain affordable at 80% AMI. This allows a comparison of the financing and profit/loss differences between the two options, both of which should benefit the community by activating the space and justifying the expense of rehabilitating the property.

The following pages display two major scenarios for developing the building: yearly workforce rental units and short term rental units, both with and without Federal Historic Tax Credits.

All scenarios presented assume that the project will utilize Historic Rehabilitation Tax Credits and the designs presented in Appendix A are meant to meet the Secretary of Interior’s Standards for Rehabilitation.

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Scenario One The first scenario is with all 10 residential units as market rate traditional apartment lease units.

The rents range from $14/sf to $19.50/sf for the smaller units. Water, trash pickup, and internet are included in rents ranging from $925/mo to $1,430/ mo. The two $925/mo units should fit the Virginia Housing requirements for 80% AMI affordability and may qualify the projects for an 80/20 Mixed Use/Mixed Income (MUMI) subsidized loan, which we have assumed for our pro formas.

With these rents, the project will need significant financial assistance to be feasible and even then, may not be attractive to a for-profit developer.

One issue is that the size of the project would not generate enough Federal Historic Tax Credits to be attractive for syndication (sale). The Sources and Uses for the Workforce Housing scenario requires 20% Cash Equity ($737,992). We have assumed that the project would be eligible for and receive a $500,000 Mixed-Use on Main Street (or IRF) loan and a Virginia Housing loan for $1,300,000. This would still create a funding gap of $435,841.

In this scenario, the Federal Tax Credits mostly are unused. Given the subsidized financing and the gap of $435,841 being covered by the locality, the project generates just over $1,000 per month in profit after all expenses, or $12,016 in its first year, which increases slightly year over year. Even with the special financing and local subsidy, the project has negative equity until its tenth year and the tenyear return on cash is just roughly 5% annualized, making this a risky project with modest returns for a for-profit developer. The three-year snapshot is provided below and the full ten-year pro forma is in Appendix B. However, if a developer could be found that could use the Federal HRTCs, the project becomes far more attractive, with a ten-year return on cash of approximately 15%.

We have used a “Deferred Developer Fee” of 15% in order to raise the Qualified Expenses to allow for more Historic Rehabilitation Tax Credits (HRTCs) and sale of the State Credits at a rate of 80%.

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Workforce Units

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Workforce Units - Sources and Uses

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Workforce Units -10 Yr Pro Forma with Fed Tax Credits*

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*Please note: These pages include a summary of the Pro Forma numbers, displaying years One, Five, and Ten. For the complete year-over-year pro forma, please refer to the Appendix of this document.

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Workforce Units -10 Yr Pro Forma with NO Fed Tax Credits*

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Scenario Two While it was made clear by Town leadership that the community would like to support workforce housing, the competition in the market is from the demand for short-term rentals that are paid at the federal rate of $2592/month as of November, 2023. For illustration and comparison purposes, we developed pro formas showing eight of the residential units as short-stay units at the federal rate and keeping the two smaller units affordable at 80% AMI. With these rental rates, the project would require less up-front cash equity ($500,000) and would likely not qualify for a subsidized Virginia Housing loan. However, it would still be a qualified and attractive project for the Industrial Revitalization Fund (IRF). Therefore, the Sources & Uses shows a traditional loan of $1,500,000 and an IRF gap financing loan of $1,000,000. The State HRTCs would be sold at the same 80% rate and no local subsidy would be needed.

based valuation). Therefore, in this scenario, the short stay units make the project highly profitable on an equity basis and moderately profitable on a cash-flows basis.

In all, without using the Federal HRTCs, the project has positive equity in Year One and a ten-year projected annualized return on cash of more than 41%. If the developer is able to use the Federal HRTCs, that return on cash exceeds 56% annualized, making it a very attractive investment.

Due to the higher financing costs in Scenario 2, the project shows an operating loss in Year 1 and barely breaks even in Year 2. This loss is covered by a 4% Operating Contingency included in the Sources & Uses, which is included in all scenarios. However, the operating losses quickly turn to profits and the value of the building is significantly higher (with the increased rents creating a higher income-

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Short Stay Units

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Short Stay Units - Sources and Uses

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Short Stay Units -10 Yr Pro Forma with Fed Tax Credits*

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*Please note: These pages include a summary of the Pro Forma numbers, displaying years One, Five, and Ten. For the complete year-over-year pro forma, please refer to the Appendix of this document.

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Short Stay Units -10 Yr Pro Forma with NO Fed Tax Credits*

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Conclusion It is clear that Blackstone needs to find a way to salvage this building and put it to productive use.

While the retail areas could be an attractive asset to the community, the value of the building – in both a community economic development sense and a purely financial one – is in the ability to add much needed residential units in the rear and upper floor.

Due to the recent escalation of construction costs, market rate housing is not strictly feasible without significant subsidies. Agencies such as Virginia Department of Housing and Community Development and Virginia Housing have products to assist projects very similar to this one, and the use of Historic Rehabilitation Tax Credits are necessary to close the financing gap and keep monthly cash flows reasonable. Even with those helpful products, there is still close to a half milliondollar funding gap that would need to be closed by the local government or in cooperation with other state or federal agencies.

From a purely financial standpoint, the highest and best use is as a Mixed-Use property providing a combination of 20% affordable housing and 80% short-stay units, with retail storefronts.

Regardless of the type of rental units, the building is an important part of the Historic Commercial District and every effort should be made to acquire and preserve the building, especially as it poses a uniquely catastrophic risk to the surrounding buildings.

When deciding how to move forward with the building’s development, the Town and Downtown Blackstone, Inc will need to weigh the community need for long-term, affordable rental units with the immediate need of removing a physical threat to the entire block and activating vacant storefronts on two blocks.

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Recommendations

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The Town should acquire the building as soon as possible and immediately assess and remediate any dangerous conditions.

The Town should arrange for a meeting with DHCD and Va Housing to discuss additional financial assistance to create the workforce housing units.

TheTown should consider making all structural and environmental abatement and stabilization measures – to include replacing the roof – at its own cost or as part of a state grants.

The Town should weigh developing the property in association with a non-profit housing organization vs putting the property out to bid via an RFP/RFQ process.

The Town should remain flexible in negotiating the end use (workforce vs short stay) and subsidies.

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Appendices

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Floor Plans for Buildout Scenarios

Illustrative Collages of Buildout

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EXISTING BUILDING

CLOSET UTILITY

CLOSET UTILITY

W/H

W/H

W/D

W/D

W/H

RETAIL 2 ~1,592 SQFT

11' - 5"

KITCHEN

DW

KITCHEN

DINING

W/D

W/D

REF DN

KITCHEN

UNIT 3 ONE BEDROOM ~1,000 SQFT

CLOSET

PRIMARY BATHROOM

PRIMARY BATHROOM

CLOSET

UNIT 2 ONE BEDROOM ~1,000 SQFT

REF

LIN

W/D

BATHROOM

DINING

CLOSET

CLOSET

CLOSET

CLOSET

CLOSET

CLOSET

DINING

W/D

CLOSET

BATHROOM #2 LAUNDRY

43' - 11"

11' - 1" CLOSET

CORE AND BUILDING SERVICES

LIVING ROOM

PRIMARY BEDROOM

13' - 2 1/2"

PRIMARY BEDROOM

LIVING

PRIMARY BEDROOM 12' - 7"

BEDROOM #2 10' - 6" 11' - 9 3/4" 11' - 2"

UNIT 1 TWO BEDROOM ~1,000 SQFT

OFFICE/DEN

7' - 2"

OFFICE

CLOSET UTILITY

9' - 2" 9' - 0 3/4"

22' - 7 1/2" 22' - 9 1/4" 23' - 9 1/4"

LIVING

REF

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EXISTING BUILDING

EXISTING COURTYARD

RETAIL 1 ~2,300 SQFT

EXISTING BUILDING

EXISTING BUILDING

DW

KITCHEN

REF

PRIMARY BEDROOM

12' - 8 3/4"

PRIMARY BATH

CLOSET UTILITY

LN CLOSET 12' - 5"

W/H

W/H

24' - 6"

CLOSET UTILITY DW

BEDROOM # 2

11' - 5 3/4"

REF SKYLIGHT

SKYLIGHT

DINING

SKYLIGHT

SKYLIGHT

DINING

KITCHEN

BATHROOM #2

CLOSET

DINING

KITCHEN

KITCHEN

UNIT 4 ONE BEDROOM ~1,100 SQFT

DINING

DW

DW

LIVING ROOM

W/H

UNIT 3 TWO BEDROOM ~1,000 SQFT

SKYLIGHT

LIVING ROOM

SKYLIGHT

SKYLIGHT

LIVING ROOM

SKYLIGHT

UNIT 2 TWO BEDROOM ~1,000 SQFT

CLOSET UTILITY

UNIT 1 TWO BEDROOM ~1,000 SQFT

REF REF

CLOSET UTILITY

SKYLIGHT

W/D

LINN

W/D

BATHROOM

CLOSET

CORE AND BUILDING SERVICES

W/D

LAUNDRY

BATHROOM #2

BATHROOM #2

CLOSET

PRIMARY BATHROOM

PRIMARY BATHROOM

W/D

LAUNDRY

W/D

LINN

LINN

W/D

CLOSET

BATHROOM #2 LAUNDRY

CLOSET CLOSET

EXIT STAIRS

PRIMARY BEDROOM

12' - 6 1/4"

11' - 0 1/4"

BEDROOM #2

BEDROOM #2

PRIMARY BEDROOM

PRIMARY BEDROOM

BEDROOM #2

REF

KITCHEN

DW

LIVING

CL. 32' - 2"

UNIT 5 ONE BEDROOM ~600 SQFT

DINING

PRIMARY BATH

PRIMARY BEDROOM

11' - 6"

PRIMARY BATH

CLOSET

UNIT 6 ONE BEDROOM ~600 SQFT

DINING

EXISTING BUILDING

PRIMARY BEDROOM

EXISTING COURTYARD

W/D

43' - 11"

REF

KITCHEN

DW

LIVING ROOM

11' - 1 1/2"

CLOSET

KITCHEN

10' - 1 1/4" CLOSET

BEDROOM # 2

REF

LIVING

LAUNDRY

SKYLIGHT W/D W/D

SKYLIGHT SKYLIGHT

UNIT 7 ONE BEDROOM ~1020 SQFT

BATH # 2

DINING

CLOSET

PRIMARY BATH

CLOSET

LIVING ROOM

CLOSET

PRIMARY BEDROOM

13' - 3 1/2"

EXISTING BUILDING

W/D W/D

12' - 1 3/4" 18' - 11 3/4" 5' - 6 1/2"

7' - 9"

10' - 0"

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24' - 6" W/D

12' - 0"

CLOSET

22' - 7 1/2"

44' - 0"

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