ARC 6771 - Future climates 2012

FUTURE CLIMATES 2012 ABSTRACT The World as we know is experiencing several alterations in weather patterns from the past to the present and leading to the future. Many factors include oceanic processes, variations in solar radiations, volcanic eruptions, increased human activity, rise in surface temperature and burning of fossil fuels contribute to Global warming. Water is the most important resource on this planet for the well being of societies, livelihood and ecosystems. The focus of the report is Water related issues Globally such as the Availability of freshwater, Rising sea-levels, water resource infrastructure and management, river flows, decline in groundwater table, melting of ice caps, future threats to cities, different Adaptation and mitigation measures followed by same issues relating to India deeply and create a scenario "Water crisis in India in 2050". The per capita availability had decreased from 16,00 cu.m (1950) to 6800 cu.m (2000) and is estimated to further decline to 5400 cu.m in (2025) and so on globally. The availability of water resource is spatially unevenly distributed between the developed and developing countries. Disasters such as flooding, cyclones and tsunamis exist for all the coastline cities of the world. Developing countries have even more problems to safeguard the existing water, improper water management, inadequate attention to government policies and budgetary allocations. The dire need to safeguard the elixir of life has proven to be a question, and the battle to sustain life on earth is on. My conclusion outlines the various steps, measures and poilicies required to safeguard this resource.

INTRODUCTION The changes in Climate has a deep impact on water resource availability, its quality which affects food availability, access, stability and utilisation. The changing environment consists of rising sea levels where the oceans get warmed, they expand, the sinking of land mass and increase in frequency of storm. The historic sea-level rise accelerated to 3mm in the 20th century from 1.7mm per year during the 1990's, due to which the coastal flooding is set to occur more frequently with severity causing several deaths and cost billions of dollars to damages, coastal erosion, displacement of people, devastation of land and properties. The water supplies of snow cover and glaciers are projected to decline in the century.

Satellite observations show a rapid decline rate of 11.5% per decade in the melting of Artic sea ice, relative to the 1979 to 2000 average. Climate change affects the operation and function of existing water infrastructure, water management practices, economic activity and land use change. The warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries even if the greenhouse gas emissions are stabilised.

Biophysical, climate, freshwater and socio-economic systems are interconnected in complex ways, a change in any one of these would result in a change in an other.

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FUTURE CLIMATES 2012 The importance of this report is to outline the strategies to overcome the predictable future disasters of many regions of the world. The future scenarios of 2050 and 2100 help us think or imagine how the future world could be and understand the need for different typologies of city planning with respect to their locations and surroundings. Governments and climate activists need to take proactive steps to create several Adaptive and mitigation measures. There are two dominating issues such as Water scarcity and Global sea-level rise throughout the world. Individual attention to these issues could lead to careful planning for the future climate. Some interesting proposals on future scenarios include,

1. The turnaround house by Nissen Adams 2. Recycled marine 3. Dura Vermeer designed floating responds to a flood without compromising Infrastructure design houses on maasbommel, Netherlands living and meeting all needs of occupants. created floating city built on concrete floating bodies. in Thames gateway.

Such ideas can be adopted for several coastlines of the world, especially developing country like India where it has one of the densest coastline of the world consisting of megadelta cities like Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata. It is important for the climate researchers/analysts to have a dialogue with Intergovernmental panel on a regular basis on the possible future outcomes which can lead to several policy changes, create new policies and prepare the political minds for a futuristic worst case scenarios.

(Labs, 2008), manager of Energy and Climate Strategy, HP, said: “The Climate Futures scenario work is a key tool to help visualise how the world, society and markets may evolve as regards customer needs and behaviours, policy regulations, cost of energy and commodities, and technology innovations�.

On the water scarcity aspect, an article published by The Independent states that, the rapid increase in urbanization worsens the impact of climate change by 2050 and around billion urban residents face serious water shortages among which Indian six big cities and 119 million people of Ganges river delta basin being the worst hit with less than 100 litres per day. The number sounds frightening with parts of india, Tropical Africa, Bangladesh and Nepal suffer from a constraint such as economic scarcity of water which is the financial inability to invest in infrastructure, access, treat and water use efficiency. India does not lack water due to the annual monsoon where 50% of the rainfall received is in 15 days and 90% of the flows happen in 4 months every year. India with 16% of worlds population has a mere 4% of total freshwater with a steady decline in the per capita availability since 1950. The water resource management issues need to be addressed adequately and urgently to acheive poverty reduction targets and economic development goals. The per capita storage and per capita availability charts below show the difference between countries.

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(Eleventh Five year plan (2007 - 2012) Planning (Oxford publication titled - India's water economy - Bracing for comminsion, Government of India Volume 3, a turbulent future (page 19) by John Briscoe, R.P.S. Malik, The Chapter 2 - Page 43) World Bank report)

CLIMATE CHANGE: HOW IS IT AFFECTING THE WORLD? According to IPCC the primary concern in the increase of Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O is due to the increased population and their activities since 1750 which is clearly evident. The burning of fossil fuels and oil combines carbon with oxygen in air forming (CO 2). A strong greenhouse effect warms the oceans and melts glaciers to increase sea level, higher temperatures and shifting climate patterns disrupt the growth of plants in their best locations. The future scenario shown in the movie (2012) describes the heating up of the earth's core as a dangerous position to be living in as it destabilises the crust that can cause frequent earthquakes, shifting of landmasses, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and everything to bring an end to life on the planet. The severe earthquake under the sea causes the tectonic plates to collide which results in sea level rise, waves approaching the coast rise as the water gets shallow, causing a tsunami. The recent devastations of tsunami include japan (2011) and southern indian coastline (2006). These are frightening scenes that could repeat in the future.

A UN draft report predicts more natural disasters due to global warming. The rising waters in Thailand, floods ravaging parts of El Salvador and Italy, Droughts hitting southwestern United States, Unseasonal winter storms causing 3 million homes powerless, increase in the intensity of hurricanes similar to 2010 that caused thousands of deaths in Russia, extreme weather patterns affecting businesses in Thailand and neibhouring continents give us an idea of How we already got affected in the present leading to an unpredictable future of climate change.

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www.2012endoftheworld.name www.global-greenhouse-warming.com www.modernfolktales.com Over the 20th century, warming of the land has been evident, increase in atmospheric water vapour contet, changes in precipitation patterns over land in northern lattitudes leading to heavy rainfalls, widespread melting of ice, decrease in soil moisture, and shifts in the runoff of snowmelt fed rivers have been observed. Due to the heavy precipitation events, heavy rainfalls occur to the same regions more frequently increasing the chances for rain-generated floods and in contrast the area of land that is classified as very dry has risen by over 200% since 1970's. Adapting to climate change is a good practise that is in the hands of governments. They need to have the mental resilience and will to adapt to the climate change to overcome uncertainities. These measures could be categorized as (1) new investments (2) Operation, monitoring and regulation practices, (3) maintenance, major rehabilitation and reengineering, (4) modifications to processes, demands and (5) use of new efficient technologies.

(REF IPCC TECHNICAL PAPER 6 - CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER).

Examples of current vulnerabilities of freshwater resources and their management; in the background, a water stress map based on WaterGAP (Alcamo et al., 2003a). See text for relation to climate change.

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FUTURE CLIMATES 2012 INDIA IN 2050: CHALLENGES OF WATER SCARCITY AND THREATS TO COASTAL CITIES India as a developing country cannot afford risks and economic backlashes that Industrialised nations can when dealing with climate change. The changes in temperature, precipitation and hummidity can affect Agriculture and rural development in a major way. The challenges for India with regard to freshwater are having too little water and too much pollution. Water is the lifeline to many millions with 56% of Indian population engaged in to Agriculture sector. The per capita emissions are amongst the lowest in the world inspite of being the third largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions.

www.en.wikipedia.org

www.bitsofscience.org

According to repots from BBC, India is set to become the most populous nation with 1.63 billion people overtaking china. Indian economy is set to be the largest with USD 85.97 trillion on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis. The rising population is the single biggest factor as it is the nuclues of destruction of our natural resources and heavy consumption leads to issues with food security, inefficient water management & infrastructure, Agriculture, energy crisis, rise in CO 2 emissions, heavy rainfalls, floods, natural disasters and soil erosion causing the government a havoc situation. So, the forecast for disaster is known, hence act now seriously on policy alterations, creating new infrastructure, efficient management and implementing renewable technologies to minimise the impact by 2050.

Globally the major consumer of water is the Agriculture sector with 70% of all water withdrawals and 85% in the developing countries like India and china making them largest consumers. In India, the three major river basins are (1) the Krishna (2) the Ganges and (3) the Godavari contribute to 70 - 90% of the collection of summer monsoon rainfall. Extreme rainfall with intensity is predicted for Godavari and Krishna basins while less rainy days are predicted for Ganges basin with several states likely to be affected by drought surrounding the Basin. The surface water availibility showed increase for all basins though increased population projections need to be considered to determine the per capita water avalability.

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Wastewater treatment, severage planning and water intense industries need to consider capacity issues, overflow and intense precipitation. The policy implications to the predictions could lead to (1) flood control and drought management (2) Design planning of hydrological structures (3) Industrial development and Urban planning (4) a robust Agricultural policy - anticipate the appropriate crops that would grow for the changing season patterns and (5) Erosion mitigation measures in the forest policy. A case study report on sea - level rise impacts by Robert J.Nicholls shows the direct and indirect impacts of coastal regions. The direct impacts are loss of habitats, damage to coastal protection works, loss of renewable & subsistence resources, tourism, recreation, transportation, cultural resources and values.

The indirect impacts affect more as a loss of fisheries, rare species extinction and potential risks to floods. The coastal system is defined in terms of interaction of natural and socio economic systems.

These systems are dynamic with different types of Adaptation and adjustment can be distinguished such as Autonomous adaptation and planned adaptation take place to reduce the magnitude of potential impacts that would occur in their absense. Hence, the impact assesments that do not consider adaptation tend to overestimate their impacts.

The definition of Adaptive capacity as quoted by McCarthy et al in 2001 states that "The ability of a system to adjust to sea-level rise and climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences."

The figure shows A conceptual framework for coastal impact and vulnerability assessment of sea-level rise.

Source: Nicholls (2002a)

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FUTURE CLIMATES 2012 SCENARIO OF INDIA IN 2050: India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world and would top the list in 2050. The capacity of India would be enormous that the country can afford several water infrastructure development projects.

The major cities that drive indian economy are located on coastal regions such as Mumbai, Kolkata and chennai. Any fastest growing economic super power has got the resources, capability, political determination and grit to fight for a better quality of life. Hence, there would be positive scenarios around several issues of the future climate. Go-India-Go.....!

Some IPCC scenarios feature rapid economic growth and the practice of even more efficient technologies, changes in social interaction and renewable energy production. At the opposite, more disturbing end of the range of scenarios, there are sketches of rapid increases in CO 2 levels that lead to rising sea levels, flooding, extreme weather patterns, drought, scarcity of food, species extinction, mass migration and wars over resources. Chennai and Mumbai face severe water shortages and low groundwater table levels. Even though cities expand higher in future with skyscrapers and vertical farming concepts, the groundwater levels remain the same with the rise in demand and shortage of supply increases. A radical futuristic scenario is required to prepare the political minds of the measures to be taken to combat this water battle. Focussing on the city of chennai, few main issues need to addressed for the future.

Why dont we get our drinking water from the ocean by taking the salt out of seawater?

(Article from Scintific American, Peter Gleick, President of Pacific Institute, 2008) The two main methods of removing salt are (1) Thermal distillation which is an expensive process and (2) Membrane seperation technology which forces seawater through a semipermeable membrane that seperates salt from water and is called as "Reverse Osmosis". There is a presense of De-salination plant at Nemmeli,chennai that converts saltwater to freshwater. The government cannot depend on one source to meet all demands, but focus on several isssues together to increase the number of available sources of freshwater. Such issues are,  Rapid growth in the Installations of Reverse Osmosis plants in chennai to meet future demands.  Construction of several Dams across the Krishna and Godavari river basins to increase the storage capacity of water.  What is the future of Coastal management? Why cant we go ahead and build structures on to the water? (A report by Institution of civil engineers on facing up to rising sea levels show) This is a scenario of "ATTACK" which is to step on to the sea side. This could unlock a vital planning tool and give flexibility to the 21st century cities. There have been land reclamation projects across the world. Indian coastal city chennai could consider this method for development.

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(SOURCE: A REPORT ON FACING UP TO RISING SEA LEVELS)  The cooum river is a polluted river that ends in the city of chennai which is 65km in length draining in to Bay of Bengal. This was a clean, unpolluted and a freshwater lake once upon a time. One of the city's dream projects is to clean up the river and get it back to its original state by 2020. The benefits of this river to the city are enormous. Future scenario could be, Clean up of river by 2020, forcing the arrival of the Freshwater in to the city. ↓ Removal of Slums across the banks of cooum river and development of low cost housing for the poor. ↓ Increase in the Tourism, development in the Urban Planning across the river bank and new means of transportation making it a LANDMARK OF THE CITY.

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Improves the Environment, Rise in the economic growth and Improves the living conditions across the river,

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Generation of Revenue, Several opportunities of new small Business developments, creates jobs and Better Quality of life across the city.

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LIFELINE OF CHENNAI: Water channels could be imbedded across the river to supply fresh water to millions of people around

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[The different views of the Cooum river (Source: en.wikipedia.org/cooum river)]

ROADMAP TO 2050......WILL THE COOUM RIVER BE CHENNAI's THAMES? All the above issues, if dealt together in a proactive manner by the government and people, then the Water Scarcity and Rising sea levels of chennai could pose no threat to the city. Thus Sustainable development across all the sectors is possible and leads to a GREENER INDIA.

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FUTURE CLIMATES 2012 BIBLIOGRAPHY: Brendan Giusti, C. P. (2011, November 1). Draft Report: The Christian Post. Retrieved April 21, 2012, from The Christian Post Web site: http://www.christianpost.com/news/un-draft-report-predicts-more-naturaldisasters-due-to-global-warming-60039/ Climate Change: Wikipedia. (n.d.). Retrieved April 20, 2012, from WIKIPEDIA Web site: en.wikipedia.org Cooum River: Wikipedia. (n.d.). Retrieved April 24, 2012, from WIKIPEDIA web site: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooum_River Emmerich, R. (Director). (2009). 2012 [Motion Picture].

Environment: Billion plus People. (2011, March 28). Retrieved April 21, 2012, from The Independent Web site: http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/billionplus-people-to-lack-water-in-2050-study2255847.html Gleick, P. (2008, July 28). Ask the Experts: Environment . Retrieved April 24, 2012, from THE SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN Web site: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=why-dont-we-get-our-drinkingwater-from-the-ocean How climate change affects India. (n.d.). Retrieved April 22, 2012, from India Climate Portal Web site: http://www.indiaclimateportal.org/how-climate-change-affects-india Intergovernmental panel on climate change. (2007). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Valencia, Spain: IPCC .

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2008). Climate Change and Water. In B. Z. Bates, IPCC Tehnical paper 6 (p. 210). Geneva.

Labs, H. P. (2008). Climate Futures. London: Forum for the Future.

(2005). Water resources and Distribution. In T. M. Leonard, Encyclopedia of the Developing World (p.

1687). NewYork: Taylor & Francis, Inc. NASA. Causes. (n.d.). Retrieved April 22, 2012, from NASA Web site: http://climate.nasa.gov/causes/ Nicholls, R. J. (2003). Case study on sea-level rise impacts. Enfield, UK: OECD. Reports: Center of Excellence for Change. (2008). Retrieved April 19, 2012, from Center of Excellence for Change: http://www.waterandclimatefuture.com/template.php?subcid=0&cid=25 RIBA. (2012). Facing up to Rising Sea-Levels. London: Institute of Civil Engineers.

Sharma, D. G. Keysheet 5: Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in India. Pune: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.

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FUTURE CLIMATES 2012 Tsunami: Wikipedia. (2011). Retrieved April 21, 2012, from Wikipedia web site: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsunami UN Water-partners. (2009). Climate Change Adaptation: The Pivotal Role of Water. http://www.unwater.org/.

Upali A. Amarasinghe, T. S. (2008). India’s Water Supply and Demand from 2025-2050. New Delhi: International Water Management Institute.

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