НЕХВАТКА ВОДЫ
ПУТЕМ ВОДЫ: ТОРГОВЫЙ ПОТЕНЦИАЛ РОССИИ В ЭПОХУ МИРОВОЙ ЗАСУХИ
ИНСТИТУТ STRELKA
2015
WATER SCARCITY
INSTITUTE
LIQUID CAPITAL: GLOBAL THIRST & KAMCHATKA AS THE SOURCE OF RUSSIA’S NEW PROSPERITY
НЕХВАТКА ВОДЫ Будущее воды определит будущее мира. Вода — определяющий фактор нашего существования: она оказывает влияние на изменение климата, экономическое развитие, наши потребительские привычки, состояние экологии, технологические инновации, права человека. По прогнозам, борьба за доступ к убывающим водным ресурсам станет главной причиной конфликтов в 21 веке. В то же время, вода может стать основой для политического сотрудничества, социального благополучия и масштабных финансовых инвестиций. В поисках баланса между мечтами о человеческом благополучии и обезличенными политическими и экономическими расчетами, проект предлагает модель логистического хаба на Камчатке, который позволит задействовать обширные водные ресурсы России в эпоху глобального засушья. На протяжении истории вода была центральным фактором человеческих взаомоотношений, основой как союзов, так и разногласий. Пристальное изучение истории воды может помочь по-новому взглянуть на существующие прогнозы и дать вдохновение для проектов будущего. Тем не менее, сегодняшняя ситуация беспрецедентна по многим параметрам. Население Земли растет по экспоненте и, как следствие, наносит непоправимый вред экосистемами, которые объединены именно водой. Возобновляемые источники пресной воды сокращаются вследствии растущего бытового потребления, агрокультурных и индустриальных процессов, сопряженных с высокими ресурсными затратами. Два связанных между собой показателя — качество воды и ее доступность — в этой ситуации становятся политическими и социальными факторами, внимание к которым будет только усиливаться. Отношение к воде сегодня нуждается в кардинальном переосмыслении. В качестве отправной точки данный проект берет реальную угрозу дефицита воды по всему миру и предлагает возможное решение этой проблемы — использование потенциала восточных территорий России как источника ценных водных ресурсов. Стремясь сделать проект одновременно практический и оптимистический в своих прогнозах, мы попытались переосмыслить статус России в мировой экономике только как источника сырья. Мы предлагаем представить, что российские запасы пресной воды станут основой устойчивого и долгосрочного благополучия страны, а также позволят спроектировать новый подход к окружающей среде и технологическому развитию. — Николас Мур, куратор группы
1
WATER SCARCITY The future of water is the future of the world. Water issues are at the heart of climate change, economic development, consumption habits, ecological degradation, technological innovation, the defense of human rights; in short, water defines the nature of our experience on earth. Increasingly limited, access to water resources is predicted to be the primary source of conflict in the 21st century. Conversely, water is a critical source of political cooperation, social coherence, and — increasingly — financial investment worldwide. Balancing aspirations for human well-being with cool economic and political calculation, this project proposes a logistics hub in Kamchatka, designed to exploit Russia’s vast water resources in an era of global drying. A source of both strife and sharing, there is a long history of water as central to human relations, a history which can be examined for insights to the future and inspiration for future designs. The defining characteristics of our time, are, however, unprecedented. The human population grows exponentially, often abusing and destroying ecological systems as a consequence. Water is the universal substance connecting these systems. As global population increases, renewable freshwater resources are further taxed not only by human consumption, but also by water-intensive agricultural and industrial processes. Compounding problems of water quality and water availability are political and social divides, which are apt to manifest and intensify in the face of resource shortage. Existing relationships to water must be reassessed and redesigned. This project begins with the reality of water shortages worldwide, and proposes to counter that reality with the potential of Russia’s eastern territories as a source of water wealth. At once practical and hopeful, the project departs from the logic of global capital and Russia’s position as a resource-export economy, yet it assumes that Russian water may become the source of long-term, sustainable Russian prosperity, as well as new attitudes towards the environment and new technological development. — Nicholas Moore, tutor
2
LIQUID CAPITAL
3
Increasing demand for accessible water is pushing the World into the abyss of droughts and thirst. Russia has the potential to restore global water balance by opening The Great Water Route with water retaining products and freshwater trade.
4
LIQUID CAPITAL
Definition of the Trend Population growth, toxification and profligate water consumption patterns are overwhelming renewable fresh water. Through reevaluating existing water resources Russia has the potential to rescue the world from a desert of thirst.
The fact is that there is always the same amount of water on our planet, it never becomes more or less. Today we are facing a tendency towards freshwater location changes, as well as changes in its quality, and, as a result, the accessibility1. Alongside an increase in water demand, population growth and growing consumerism, competition between the three main consumers (agriculture, industry and household2) are overwhelming the renewable freshwater supply, that leads to water scarcity. By water scarcity we mean an imbalance of water supply and demand.
5
Accessibility meant an opportunity to use water which is changing according to the economic condition
1
Worldwide, agriculture accounts for 70% of all water consumption, compared to 20% for industry and 10% for domestic use
2
DEFINITION OF THE TREND
km3/year range of estimates of total world water resource
50 000
km3/year
45 000
range of estimate of world water resource
50 000
40 000
based on data:
45 000
Global consumption
40 000
Economically available freshwater
range of estimate of available world water resource
35 000 30 000
35 000
25 000 20 000 15 000
range of estimate of available world water resource
30 000
prediction Global consumption
25 000
Economically available freshwater
20 000
10 000 5000
15 000
0
10 000 1910
1930 5000 1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
YEAR
Source: Rodda G. On0 the problems of assessing the World water resources. In: Geosci. and water resource environment data model. Berlin – Heidelberg, 1997: 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
2030
2050
year
Availability of world freshwater Source: Rodda G. On the problems of assessing the World water resources. In:
Geosci. and water resource environment data model. Berlin – Heidelberg, 1997: Global-mean air surface temperature rise
Water Cis essential for life, and also possesses social and religious symbolism. The ways water is used have trans5 formeds through time. Today water is used to produce power4 within hydro stations, as a cemetery for nuclear waste and as fuel for transport (as a source for hydrogen 3 transport). Water is packaged and sold as a commodity: as ice in the 19th century, in plastic bottles in the 20th 2 century and now it is distributed worldwide. Globalization and the development of transport infrastructure 1 prompted fresh water to be delivered to stress areas of need all over the world. 0 o
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050 YEAR
At a time when water is wasted on unnecessary food Source: NOAA/ The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration production, used as a component of biofuel, as luxurious entertainment or even wasted as a result of loose piping, more than 750 million people lack access to clean drinking water. Furthermore, diseases caused by Global-mean sea level rise (cm) drinking dirty water in the world kill more than 5 million peoplecm every year. 160
Meanwhile with the second largest renewable freshwater resources in the world, Russia has an opportunity to 120 share them with the rest of the planet. 80
40
6 0
LIQUID CAPITAL
Global Development Water scarcity is a globally significant accelerating condition, leading to challenges in food production, human health, and economic development in regions and states as a whole.
Nearly all water on Earth is located in the oceans, leaving only 2.5% as freshwater, where nearly three quarters is frozen, and most of the remainder is present as soil moisture or lies deep in the ground. The principal sources of freshwater that are available to society equal a tiny fraction (tenths of 1%) of all water on Earth. The supply of freshwater is conditioned by several additional factors, which amplify the patterns of abundance and scarcity. These factors include the distribution ofhumans in relation to the supply of water, patterns of demand, presence of water engineering to stabilize flows, seasonal and interannual climate variations, and water quality.
7
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
Global warming leads to the desertification of regions, as well as to the reduction of mountain glaciers, that change the location and amount of water around the world from drought to flooded regions. Meanwhile agriculture is the biggest consumer of freshwater — 70 % of the world`s total consumption. Growing population1 has a serious impact on the need for food production2. Besides that, the agricultural sector contributes 50% of pollutants that affect countries’ water supply. Contrary to local improvements, water pollution is on the rise globally. Moreover, many anthropogenic chemicals are long-lasting and transform into by-products whose behaviors, synergies, and impacts are as yet mostly unknown.
World population is projected to have risen from 7 billion in 2015 to 10 billion in 2065.
1
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations world food production will need to rise by 70%.
2
“The new class of micropollutants appearinginfinitesimal, almost molecular, traces of plastics, birth control pills, antidepressants — have literally been invisible even to chemists until very recently”— Charles Fishman, national reporter for the Washington Post.
FUKUSHIMA WATER - a campaign for a fake energy drink sourced from the Japanese nuclear site to highlight the problem of invisible danger in water
8
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050 YEAR
Source: NOAA/ The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
LIQUID CAPITAL km3/year range of estimates of total world water resource
50 000 45 000
Global-mean sea level rise (cm)
40 000 range of estimate of available world water resource
35 000 cm
based on data
30 160 000
world based on data asia world russia asia
25 000 20 120 000 15 000
russia prediction
10 000 80
world prediction asia world russia asia
5000 0 40 1910
0
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
YEAR
russia
Source: Rodda G. On the problems of assessing the World water resources. In: Geosci. and water resource environment data model. Berlin – Heidelberg, 1997:
-40 1910
1930
Global-mean rise 1950 1970 air surface 1990 temperature 2010 2030
2050 YEAR
o
C Source: NOAA/ The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
5
3 KM4 500 3
400 2
300 1
200 0
100
1910 1930 Source: NASA
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050 YEAR
Source: NOAA/The and Atmospheric Administration Source: NOAA/ TheNational NationalOceanic Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
0
Total water storage annomaly (mm eq water height)
1910 50 0
1930
1950
1970
1990
YEAR is 1600 years 2010 Recovery 2030 period 2050 of aquifer
Source: Igor A Shiklamanov, State Hydrological Institute (SHI, St. Petersburg) United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO, Paris) 1999 Global-mean sea level rise (cm)
-50 3 KM cm -150 6000 160 -150
Guarani
5000 -200 120
Canning
-250 4000
Central Valley
Southern Plains NW East Middle East Central Plain
80 -300 3000 -350 40 2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 YEAR
Source: NASA
0 1000
Source: NOAA/The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Global-mean sea level (top); Global-mean air 85surface (middle); Declining storage in major global aquifers (bottom) 53
0 -40
9
1910 1910
1930 1930
1950 1950
1970 1970
1990 1990
2010 2010
2030 2030
2050 YEAR 2050 YEAR
Source: Source: NOAA/ The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
Moreover, the water supply is a sector with extremely high corruption risks, and the water crisis is partly the result of a governance crisis3. The minimal human need of water is defined as 50 liters per day (personal and domestic use)4. Today 1.2 billion people live in the regions affected by physical water scarcity and 1.6 billion face an economical water scarcity5. Countries with rapidly growing economies like China, Turkey and India do not physically have enough water in some regions. At the same time many countries in Africa such as Ethiopia and Sudan, parts of India and Nepal do not have the economic possibility to extract, develop and finally use their physically available water resources. In such regions the main problem is not a lack of water per se, but the inability to get and efficiently distribute the available resources.
According to Transparency International, loss of funds allocated to the water sector are 30 % and estimated as $ 48 billion in 10 years
3
To meet these basic needs, independent of climate, technology, and culture; the threshold was adopted as 1,000 m3 per capita per year.
4
Countries having adequate renewable resources, but needing to make significant improvements in existing water infrastructure to make such resources available for use, are considered “economically water scarce”
5
Today, Africa uses only 4% of its own renewable water resources (whereas developed countries use about 7090%) due to economic inThe ability to reallocate water ability. Globally, this poses between countries via trading is the question of future cooperation and dependency being advocated. In 21st century this is being done by creating a water between countries.
exchange with water Index
To address increasing competition between consumers — due to the decreasing availability of water and water scarcity itself, the ability to reallocate water between countries via trading is being advocated. In 21st century this is being done by creating a water exchange with water Index6, and involving water resources in market relationships.
The S&P Global Water Index provides liquid and tradable exposure to water related businesses.
6
10
LIQUID CAPITAL
Russia The rest of the world
Freshwater availability Water stress (less then 1000 m3/ per person/ per year) Water scarcity (from 1000 to 2m3/ per person/ per year)
2025 economical water scarcity 2025 physical water scarcity
Source: FAO, Nations Unies/ World resource institure (WRI); Stockholm Resilience Cen Physical and economic water scarcity
11
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
ntre Water Resources
12
LIQUID CAPITAL
Export point (exclude bottled water) Russia/ Sochi. Waterport 2019 Water export| Tanker Water export| Pipe Water export| Project
World freshwater trading routes
13
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
Moscow Sochi
14
LIQUID CAPITAL
The Russian Condition Unlike major parts of the world, Russia has much water potential. Continuing water toxification, outdated water infrastructure and huge levels of corruption in the sector indicate that this potential is underestimated today. In Russia, the drivers of water sector transformation are different. Consumption of freshwater is lessening due to a decrease in industry (which is the biggest consumer — 64 % of fresh water in the country), and the decreasing of agriculture. There is also a reduction in household use due to the shrinking of the population, which according to the UN report1 will be reduced by another 24 % from 2015 to 2065 — from 146 million to 111 million people. Due to climate change and the melting of glaciers the amount of available freshwater in rivers is increasing. Russia is second to Brazil in its amount of renewable freshwater resources.
15
World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision
1
100 100 0 THE RUSSIAN CONDITION 0
1910 1910
1930 1930
1950 1950
1970 1970
1990 1990
2010 2010
2030 2030
2050 YEAR 2050 YEAR
Source: Igor A Shiklamanov, State Hydrological Institute (SHI, St. Petersburg) Source: Igor A Shiklamanov, State Hydrological Institute (SHI, St. (UNESCO, Petersburg)Paris) 1999 United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO, Paris) 1999 3 KM 3 KM 6000 6000
based on data world asia
5000 5000
russia
4000 4000
prediction world
3000 3000
asia russia
2000 2000 1000 1000
85 85
0 0
1910 1910
1930 1930
1950 1950
1970 1970
1990 1990
53 53 2010 2010
2030 2030
2050 YEAR 2050 YEAR
Source:WRSC/ OWN elaboration Source: Source: Source: DSS Research/ United Nations World Population Prospects Billions Billions 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0
0,148 bill 0,148 bill
0,107 bill 0,107 bill
Source: elaboration 1910 WRSC/ 1930 OWN 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 Source:DSS Research/ United Nations World Population Prospects Source: Source:
2050 YEAR 2050 YEAR
Consumption of freshwater (top); Population growth (bottom)
This means that the whole country has available 1500x per capita per day of its water needs. But water resources are unevenly located throughout Russian territory. Due to climate change and the melting of glaciers the amount of available freshwater in rivers is increasing. Russia is second to Brazil in its amount of renewable freshwater resources.
16
LIQUID CAPITAL
Water availability
Amount of renewable water resources available for human use
Water availability
Amount of renewable water resources available for human use m Ke
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more 400 300-400 200-300 150-200 100-150 50-100 less 50 * Based on National Atlas 2000 Water availability (1000 m3/year/ 1km)*
80% of the more population and200-300 agricultural lands are50-100 concentrated in the European part of Russia. 400 300-400 150-200 100-150 less 50 This forms 23 % of Russia as a whole with only 8% of the country`s water resources * Based on National Atlas 2000
This means that the whole country has available 1500x per capita per day of its water needs. But water resources are unevenly located throughout Russian territory. The paradox is that The paradox is that Russia has the Russia has the resources, but that resources, but that simultaneously simultaneously causes the cultural attitude not to causes the culturtake care of it al attitude not to take care of it. And 2 according to the expert in city supply the result is that, Russians have no incentive to save water: they spend less than 1% of their income on water supply. The average price of 1 m3 (1000 L) is 20 rubles. While a 1 liter bottle of water costs 30 rubles — which is 1500 times more. At the same time urban water infrastructure is characterized by a high degree of technical wear. It was built in the 1960s during the are of rapid urbanisation.
17
Sergey Sivayev, Professor, HSE
2
THE RUSSIAN CONDITION
The quality of the water in the city water supply system is regulated and strictly rationed, but according to the research, water quality going into houses falls due to age and deterioration of infrastructure. The national average of wearout is 70% and in some cities is 90% (Samara). Water leakage exceeds 1/3 of the volume of water supplied to the city network. However, with low tariffs for water and high costs for repairs service companies have no incentive to repair and upgrade the system.
However, with low tariffs for water Water quality criteria for industrial production comand high costs for repairs service panies is the same as for companies have no incentive to fishery water bodies — an repair and upgrade the system almost unattainable standard. Therefore, consumers prefer to pay fines rather than comply with the requirements for wastewater treatment. There is a dilemma: the state budget is interested in the collection of the largest possible amount of water tax, and also payments for the discharge of pollutants, which increase by volume! However, the ecological state of water bodies requires a Analytical review reduction in the volume of anthropogenic load3. It shows of management of that reformation of quality criteria is required. water resources 3
in the Russian Federation.
Drinking water is used to clean streets in Russia
18
LIQUID CAPITAL
Russian Trajectories Global water scarcity will lead to Russia growing in significance as a global geopolitical player, which has one of the biggest reserves of freshwater in the world. Water export can become an important sector of the Russian economy in the future.
According to the strategic report of Roshydromet, southern territories of West Russia, where all the agricultural lands are located, will dry up by 2030. Russia will face serious water scarcity in four regions. Finding new potential agricultural lands would raise the question of the possible resettlement of the population from the south of Russia to the northern and eastern parts of the country, or the question of trading of water between regions. Russia has a long history of resource trading: from the 11th century fur market, timber trade in the 19th century, to oil and gas export being 79% of the country`s in 2014. The world`s current transition to energy efficiency and alternative energy sources, is leading to the devaluation of oil production in Russia.
19
2015
RUSSIAN TRAJECTORIES
% GDP 25
all revenues oil&gas revenues
20
15
43% of federal budjet
10
5
0 1994
1996
1996
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
YEAR
2015
Source: Ministry of Finance of Republic of Russia (MinFin)
Final Energy (Ej/a)
400
300
Renewable
200
Power Heat Fuels
100
Fossil&Nuclear
0 2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050 YEAR
2015
Source: The Ecofys Energy Scenario, 2010
based on data world russia
Billions of barrels/year
20
prediction world russia
10
1
0.5
0 2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050 YEAR
Source: Colin campus association for the study of peak oil and gas 2003
Feredarl budjet of Russia (top); Evolution of energy supply (middle); Oil production (bottom)
20
LIQUID CAPITAL
m Ke
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Pechor a
92 %
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Сhanges in crop moisture availability:
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2011-2030 2041-2060
2015-2030 Water scarcity (1000m3/per capita/year)* *Based on the (Rosgigromet) report -”Assessment of the macroeconomic impact of climate change on Russia territory up to 2030 and beyond”
80% of the population and agricultural lands are concentrated in the European part of Russia. This forms 23 % of Russia as a whole with only 8% of the country`s water resources
Since 2011, the Russian government has seen the growing potential of water export, which has already led to the decision to create a water exchange in Saint Petersburg by 2020.
“In 5 or 7 years new water lines will appear in Russia, allowing us to export freshwater”— Boris Gryzlov, Chairman of the Supreme Council of United Russia. The idea of water export and water resources being used as a national commodity is not actually fresh. Since 1988 polluted water from the Volga River has been exported to Kazakhstan through water pipes, to supply the island of Mangyshlak. As this water is not suitable for drinking, it’s being purified in Kazakhstan. In this light polluted water is also economically available and can be sold. The first Russian water port is already under construction in Sochi. It will be finished by 2019 to meet the challenge of approaching world water scarcity.
21
RUSSIAN TRAJECTORIES
The freshwater supply will mainly be directed to countries: India, China, UAE. China and India (countries with the largest economies by 2040) have the biggest demand and geographically are the closest neighbors to Russia. Furthermore, since 2011 the project of construction of water pipes from Russia to China is under active discussion. Russia has borders with the regions that are in urgent need of fresh water for further economic development. This gives Russia an advantage. But from a future perspective nothing could be done without improving the quality of water and the system of management, and without a shift in human behaviors. A system to manage polluted water must be created; tax should be collected and spent on repairing the ecosystem. Each region would be in control of the tax money to apply solutions to their most damaged areas. An incentive system is connected to the regional taxation, which will request a reduction in tax to stimulate implementation of innovations. Privatization of the water While the trend of centralization supply is prohibited by law. continues to grow, a highly centralized While the trend of centralsystem is under political pressure ization continues to grow, a highly centralized system is under political pressure. However, infrastructure around According to the the country is going to collapse by 2015–20191. This sitreport of Sergey uation is a opportunity for country to redesign old infraSivayev, Professor, HSE. structure and implement new technologies of supply and management. This will be most efficient by creating a national standard and then decentralizing the management of water to empower regional administrations (Liberal Reformist scenario). 1
The direction of this implementation lead to the opening by 2018 of the first Water Cluster, with a water academy, technological and industrial parks in St. Petersburg.
22
LIQUID CAPITAL
4 scenarios of the water supply 1. Liberal Reformist
x
2015
2019
2. The “National Priority”
x
2015
2019
3. Crisis
x
2015
2019
4. Inertial 2015
x
2019
Consequancies of the Liberal Reformist scenario 1. Reduction of politicized regulation
Attraction for private investment
2. Models of competitive selection of infrastructural management
Successful implementation of the Parliament’s water
3. Technological modernization 4. Reduction of politicized regulation
Effective alignment of horizontal connections
5. Improving the quality and reliability of services Possible scenarios of city water supply after collapse of 2019
While water could become a new driver for the Russian economy, this future requirest systematic changes, and rethinking the role of water and relationships with it.
23 20
THE FUTURE SETTLEMENT
The Future Settlement By the 2050s the Russian East plays an important economical, social and political role. Kamchatka peninsula has become one of major development centers of the country due to its water resources.
Kamchatka has a strategically important location at the intersection of future major global routes. This is the Northern Sea Route, which paves the way for the goods from China and Russia to Europe. Also it is an ICL World Link (an Intercontinental Eurasia-America Transport Corridor) which is going to be constructed by 2040 and connect the USA and Russia by railway. This will connect Kamchatka whith the European part of Russia and the capital as well. The idea of Russia as the connector of East and West has been discussed and imagined for many years.
24
LIQUID CAPITAL
W
Moscow
USA China Yemen
New York
Mexico
India
Australia
Strategic location of Kamchatka
“East and West Uniting” was the motto of the all-Russian survey in 2010. Kamchatka is located directly at the crossroads between Europe, the US and Asia and it has to become the ‘capital’ for water resources, heavy water production and water trading. The city port The idea of Russia as the connector is rebuilt and of East and West has been discussed broadened to and imagined for many years adapt to new infrastructure and market demands. This location is aimed at the main consumers of fresh water: Asia, especially India and China (world’s leading economies by 2040), where growth is constrained by low water availability in their borders. A special water port is added due to water transportation by tankers.
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THE FUTURE SETTLEMENT
The collapse which occurred in 2019 demonstrated the untenability of the system and with mass dissatisfaction. The necessity to renovate the system and introduce technologies resulted in invites to foreign companies and local IT companies (Yandex The collapse which occurred in 2019 demonstrates high level of demonstrated the untenability of the diverse specialties related system and with mass dissatisfaction to the main mission, which are implemented perfectly in water supply). The prevailing global trend of IT companies involved in city management continues. The value of resources is highly rated and could be seen in new organizations: water exchange, water campus and new water supply systems for urban life. Bringing together scientists, practitioners and decisionmakers from the public and private sector is a mix conducive to innovation and technology transfer. Unlike oil and gas, which used to be the main sources of Russia’s budget, water has a human scale, water is a necessity for human life. And after the consequences of climate change which damaged populous southUnlike oil and gas, which used to be ern regions of Russia and the main sources of Russia’s budget, the capital of the country water has a human scale, water is a in 2030, it has helped to necessity for human life establish the national idea of the importance of water resources. A new type of monocity will be built, and it will be full of the elite strata of society — composed of young water engineers, and expats from Japan, China and USA involved in the design of safe water use and new gadgets and programs for it.
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Climate migrants from areas affected by drought try by hook or by crook to reach Kamchatka, where the fate of beggars or laborers awaits them. Land use relationships changed, it matters how much water land contains and how much could be rented by corporations. People who can’t afford to live on ground level create favela cloud houses. To create a new culture of consumption and to stimulate citizens to uphold the national water priority, “personal water status” has been introduced. This makes every citizen a member of the Water Corporation and lets them earn money for saving water. To do so a lot of different scale mergers are introduced to Kamchatka society. Special apps for controlling water and with tips for saving it, clubs for water culture education, TVshows related to ecology and water consumption, public ecoevents, supermarkets with goods sorted by volume of water needed for production, lightning facades publicly showing your amount of water consumption.
To create a new culture of consumption and to stimulate citizens to uphold the national water priority, ahave been introduced “personal water status” has been introduced
Water types for smart use
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THE FUTURE SETTLEMENT
The export potential of fresh water on Kamchatka peninsula is practically unlimited. If one exports less than 10% volume of water from known deposits one will exceed the revenue from oil per year
Wearable technologies help regulate people’s behavior, emphasizing the smart use of water; as a result, people form new relationships with their environments. Water has become society’s long looked for national idea. Because of its unique nature parks, high-tech production and special urban relationships Kamchatka becomes Water has become society’s long looked for national idea a highly interesting tourist destination. Globally, pollution level are becoming worse, the amount of wild nature is reducing, and unique animal and plant species are disappearing. That is why during a UNESCO Congress, it is decided to turn Kamchatka — with its clean water and wild nature — into a rescue capsule to protect the environment.
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The Collapse of the water supply system in the majority of Russian cities. Foundation of a state company, which aim is to develop Far East
Active development of the Northen Sea Trade Route going along the Russian Arctic coast.
Citizen riots.
CONSEQUENCES2
PREDICTIONS1
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Climate migrats coming from water stressed countries to the Kamchatka peninsula
First water port in Sochi
Climate migrats to the Kamchatka peninsula
SPECULATIONS3
Google carried its servers to Kamchatka
2019
Water port in Kamchatka
2025
PREDICTIONS4
2015
Expert ideas about Russia Conclusions that are based on the research 3 Our thoughts about possible futures 4 Expert ideas about the World 1
2
Future timeline
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Water scarcity in the Western Russia
2030
2035
Las Vegas runs out of water
Water lab of all cons products
THE FUTURE SETTLEMENT
Economic crisys in Russia Railroad connecting Russia and USA is constructed
Water exchange shifts the measurment system in barrels
Cloud export becomes possible by using Climate Control
Major water based conflict between Russia and the Islamic State Reorientation to the water based economy in the Northern and Eastern Russian regions
2040
beling sumer
The monument of those who fell in the first Water war is erected
2045
World is suffused by the water from Kamchatka
Personal Water Status allows sitizens to obtain certain social facility
2050 2055 2060
2065
Global pricing for a barrel of water
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Liquid Capital 2065
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THE FUTURE SETTLEMENT
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EXPERTS
PROJECT PARTICIPANTS DIRECTORS Anastassia Smirnova, David Erixon TUTOR Nicholas Moore STUDENTS Ivan Erofeev, photographer, Moscow; Kateryna Romanova, architect, Sevastopol; Maryana Zvyagina, architect, Moscow; Sofia Minasian, landscape architect, Moscow. EXTERNAL EXPERTS Aleksandr Antonov, NIIPI Gradostroitelstva; Mikhail Alekseevsky, Director of KB Strelka Center for Urban Anthropology; Vasily Auzan, Strategic consultant at Booz & Compan; Sergey Bobilev, MSU, professor; Andrey Voynov, Watermap portal; Dr. Viktor I. DanilovDanil`yan, Director, Water problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences; Angelina Davydova, Environmental journalist, Russian-German bureau of ecological information; Yefim Freidine, Architect, urbanist; Petr Ivanov, National Research University Higher School of Economics; Parag Khanna, Managing Partner of Hybrid Reality; Anton Kalgaev, culture expert; Ivan Kuryachiy, Managing Partner, New Earth; Marianna Katina, illustrator; Elena Korotkova, Skolkovo; Anastasia Likhacheva, Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs / Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEIS) HSE; Victor Melamed, The British Higher School of Art and Design; Svyat Murunov, Regional Development Director at the Archpolis Center; Renat Perelet, Institute for Systems Analysis, Russian Academy of Sciences; Aleksander Revin; Sergey Sivaev, professor in the Higher School of Economics; Vasilyi Yablokov, Head of the research program and GIS Greenpeace Russia; Michael
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Yulkin, Operations Director, Climate Change Global Services; Daniyar Yusupov, Architect, urban planner, Department of urbanism and urban environment design of SPBGASU; Sergey Zhuravlev, Skolkovo Urban Council member; Richard Watson, futurist author, scenario planner;
BIBLIOGRAPHY
KEY RESOURCES FOR THE RESEARCH OF WATERSCARCITY AND WATER MANAGEMENT ALEKSANDROVSKAYA O. (2012) Water use: history essays, Moscow, Media-Press. ALEKSEYEVSKIY, N. (2003) Water resources in the world and in Russia for 100 years, Moscow: Mnepu Press. BOBYLEV,S AND PERELET, R. (2011) Sustainable Development in Russia, Berlin: RNEI. BURKE, J. AND FAURES, J. (2011) Climate change, water and food security, Rome: FAO. DANILOV-DANIL`YAN, V. (2009) World water resource and perspectives of water management complex of Russia, Moscow: Levko Press. DANILOV-DANIL`YAN, V. (2009) Global water crisis and the role of Russia in its solution, Russia, Moscow: Biosphere magazine. FEKRI, H. (2011) Water history for our times, France: United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization. FISHMAN, C. (2012) The Big Thirst: The Secret life and Turbulent Future of Water: Free Press. FROLOV, A. (2014) Second Roshydromet assessment report on climate change and its consequences in Russian Federation, Moscow: Roshydromet Press. ISRAEL,Y. (2014) Trend and dynamics of environmental pollution in Russia at the turn of the XX-XXI century, Moscow: Roshydromet Press. LIKHACHEVA, A. (2014) The virtual water of Siberia and the Russian Far East for the Asia-Pacific region, Moscow: HSE. LIKHACHEVA, A. (2015) Water scarcity as a factor in modern international relations, Moscow: HSE.
National Atlas of Russia (2004), Moscow ORLOV, A. (2011) The problem of fresh water: the global context of Russia’s policy, Moscow: MGIMO. PEREIRA, L. (2009) Coping with Water Scarcity, Cyprus: Springer Russian Federal State Statistics (Rosstat) 2014 Reverse the curve: Maximizing the potential of resource-driven economies (2013): McKinsey&Company. The 2030 Water Resource Group. (2009) Charting Our Water Future : FSC. Stimulus paradoxes failures city through the eyes of economists (2015), Moscow: Strelka Press. Sustainable Growth: Taking a Deep Dive into Water (2013), Goldman Sachs & Co: FSC Progress on Drinking Water and Sanitation (2014), Geneva: UNICEF. Water in a changing World. United Nations World Water Development (2009), UN-HABITAT WARKINS, K. (2014) Human Development Report, Ney York: UNDP. WATSON, R. (2012) 50 ideas you really need to know the future, London: Quercus WORLD RESOURCE INSTITUTE (2013) Aqueduct global maps
MAXWELL, S. (2011) The Future of Water. A Startling Look Ahead, USA: AWWA. 34
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We are grateful for constructive engagement with our program directors, Anastassia Smirnova and David Erixon, as well as with the faculty of Strelka Institute: Brendan McGetrick, Kuba Snopek, Dasha Paramonova. We thank the whole Strelka team for their constant support and organization of all processes and guidelines. We would like to record our deep gratitude to our supervisor, Nicholas Moore for the patient guidance, encouragement and advice he provided throughout the project. Our project would have been impossible without the following professionals and experts: Mikhail Alekseevsky, director of KB Strelka Center for Urban Anthropology; Vasilyi Yablokov, head of the research program and GIS Greenpeace Russia, a member of the World System Data MSU; Anastasia Likhacheva, deputy director of faculty of World Economy and International Affairs / Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, HSE; We would especially like to mention Dr. Viktor I. Danilov-Danilyan, director of Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, and Angelina Davydova, environmental journalist at the Russian-German bureau of ecological information, whose works and interviews had great influence on our project. We wish to acknowledge several companies and organizations for their research, data and analyses of water issues all over the world: McKinsey & Company, UN-HABITAT, UNESCO, the Moscow Higher School of Economics, and Strelka KB. Finally, we would like to thank our fellow students, who become our friends and family. We value and cherish each day spent at Strelka, the most courageous and experimental institution of which we know. We are extremely proud to be called Strelkavites!
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