К БЕССМЕТРИЮ
«БЕССМЕРТНАЯ РОССИЯ»: ПОЛИТИКА И ПРАКТИКА ВЕЧНОЙ ЖИЗНИ
ИНСТИТУТ STRELKA
2015
IMMORTALITY
INSTITUTE
IMMORTALITY: THE NEW MEANS OF POWER DISTRIBUTION IN RUSSIA
МОСКВА БЕССМЕРТНАЯ «Иногда, для того, чтобы стать бессмертным, нужно заплатить ценою целой жизни». — Фридрих Ницше Что стало бы с искусством, наукой, духовностью без мечты о бессмертии? Как оправдать собственную жестокость, милосердие и безразличие без смутного и обнадеживающего чувства, что смерть — это еще не конец? И смерть в самом деле будет преодолена, сможет ли эта новая реальность исправить перекосы сегодняшнего дня или только усилит их? В последнее время некоторые из современных трендсеттеров, в том числе из Силиконовой Долины, все чаще стали выступать с заявлениями о достижимости вечной жизни. В подтверждение своих слов они приводят фантастическое разнообразие современных технологий: уже улучшив нашу жизнь, они вскоре позволят ей растянуться до бесконености. Исследования в сфере генетики и фармацевтики, искусственный разум и нанотехнологии, глубокий анализ данных, даже приложения для мобильных устройств — все играет ключевую роль в этой модернистской интерпретации вечной жизни, подпитываемой нечеловеческими объемами венчурного капитала. Силиконовая Долина — один из последних бастионов подлинного оптимизма в западном мире, и мечта о бессмертии здесь принимает форму технологической утопии. Если испанские авантюристы только верили в существование Фонтана вечной молодости, то жители Калифорнии вроде Рея Курцвейля уже стротят свой собственный. Утверждается, что как только способы обретения бессмертия станут доступны и понятны элитам, техники достижения вечной жизни распрострянятся и на все еще смертные широкие массы. Как сказал Рой Курцвейль, «на ранних этапах, пока технологии тестируются, позволить их себе могут лишь самые обеспеченные. К тому времени, когда они становятся действительно эффективны, их можно приобрести буквально за копейки». Данный проект ставит под вопрос подобные суждения, создавая воображаемую модель развития технологии бессмертия в России. Взяв за основу предсказание Курцвейля, что жизнь станет бесконечной к 2045 году, проект рассматривает концепцию вечной жизни через призму ключевых проблем российской действительности — социального неравенства, падения численности населения и авторитарного режима правления. Обретя бессмертие, мы сможем найти решение для каждой из них, но только в том случае, если это будет происходить в условиях прозрачности процессов и в режиме открытого доступа — в условиях, которые являются абсолютной антитезой сегодняшней действительности. 1
— Брендан Магетрик и Изабела Чихоньска, кураторы проекта
IMMORTAL MOSCOW One has to pay dearly for immortality; one has to die several times while one is still alive. — Friedrich Nietzsche What would art, science, and spirituality be without the dream of immortality? How would we justify our cruelty, charity, and negligence without the vague reassurance that death is not the end? And if it truly weren’t would this new reality remove life’s imbalances or reinforce them? Recently, iconoclasts in Silicon Valley and elsewhere have been issuing statements about the actionability of eternal life. They offer as evidence a bewildering repertoire of technologies that, having already improved life, will soon indefinitely expand it. Pharmaceutical and genetic research, AI and nanotechnology, data mining, and even mobile apps are central to this modernist interpretation of immortality, and the superhuman sums of venture capital that support it. Issuing from one of the last bastions of pure optimism in the western world, the Silicon Valley vision of eternal life is typically techno-utopian. Where Spanish adventurers believed in the Fountain of Youth, Californians like Ray Kurzweil are working to build their own. They argue that once achieved and adopted by the elite, the technologies of eternal life will spread to the mortal masses. “It is only the rich that can afford [these technologies] at an early point, when they don’t work,” Kurzweil has said. “By the time they work really well, they’re almost free.” This project confronts these assumptions by imagining the establishment of immortality in Russia. Taking as its basis Kurzweil’s prediction of endless life by 2045, the project looks at it through a lens of Russia’s most pressing problems — inequality, population decline, and authoritarian rule. Indefinite life extension could provide solutions to each of these issues, it argues, but only if introduced with a spirit of transparency and access that seems almost antithetical to contemporary life. — Brendan McGetrick and Izabela Cichonska, tutors
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The latest medical breakthroughs suggest that, within decades, human beings will possesses the power to prolong life limitlessly. In Russia’s context of depopulation, radical life extension technology will become an important resource for the government, with access to immortality becoming a new tool for political control. 4
IMMORTALITY IN RUSSIA
Definition of the Trend The most thrilling medical discoveries of recent years tell us that life extension is something that can really happen in our lifetime. Such a breakthrough will become a desirable resource of power in depopulating Russia.
During the last century average life expectancy is almost doubled due to basic healthcare inventions
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DEFINITION OF THE TREND
Immortality, like any other technology, is not going to be an instant fix. It took decades from the first computer being developed to becoming a portable device most people are familiar with. As the world develops we have seen faster mobile technology and the internet take control.
«Healthcare is now the world’s largest industry — with a value and cost three times greater than the banking sector.» — McKinsey&Company Achieving immortality by 2045* means that humans will be able to extend individuals’ productive age by some significant amount of time, and have the ability to rejuvenate regularly. After 2045 the innovation will become cheaper and easier, just as we now get services right from a smartphone app connected to a global network. The same pattern will gradually make life extension affordable.
* Original prediction was made by Ray Kurzweil, director for engineering at Google
How we see immortality from today’s perspective may be as different to reality as our several hundred ton aircraft are from the way flight was imagined by those of centuries past. Immortality may be in the form of programmed molecules fixing your body from inside, a disgusting drug that you have to take each hour, or uploading yourself to a digital matrix after death. A number of technologies develop paths to life extension. Immortality can be ‘digital’ or ‘physical’. The first stores information about person on a device and creates an artificial world around him. The more common one — physical immortality — makes the physical body and brain stay young.
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Global Development Watson computer system analysis diagnoses lung cancer with 90% accuracy rate against 50% average among human doctors. According to Moore’s law technologies double in speed every 1.5–2 years. It has worked out well with computer and mobile technologies and internet. Once the life prolongation method is invented it will start to spread according to this rule. During XX century new technologies doubled average life expectancy. 80% of deaths are no longer caused by environment — that is wars, viruses and accidents. The total Earth population increased dramatically from 1.6 to more than 7 billion people. We used to have healthcare that ‘preserves’ health, now we heading fast towards an understanding of ageing mechanisms at a molecular level. This is the knowledge that leads to the ability to make cells stay young.
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GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
80% of the population no longer die of external circumstances such as wars, viruses and accidents
«We’re going to enable personalised health care on a huge scale,» — John E. Kelly, a senior vice-president, IBM Scientists have discovered a gene* that influences some kinds of cancer. As a result US pharmacists have recently registered a drug that fights it. IBM’s brand new Watson machine diagnoses lung cancer with a 90% accuracy rate against a 50% average among human doctors. Stem cells and growing tissues in the lab will revolutionize the industry. Artificial intelligence, wearables, the ‘internet of things’ and quantum computing are now being developed into improving humans’ ability to understand how to prolong cell life.
* Gene for cancer among women in 30% of breast cancer cases and in 20% of prostate cancers for men.
ANTI-AGEING TREATMENT Deeper understanding of biological rules and technologies like Big Data allow new discoveries to appear each day. Brand new interdisciplinary bio-informatics teach us about the rules how nature speak. The new approach will allow humans to reprogram molecules in a way living organism to stay young.
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«The work they [Silicon Valley billionaires] are funding includes hunting for the secrets of living organisms with insanely long lives, engineering microscopic nanobots that can fix your body from the inside out, figuring out how to reprogram the DNA you were born with, and exploring ways to digitize your brain based on the theory that your mind could live long after your body expires». — The Washington Post, “Tech titans’ latest project: Defy death”, Ariana Eunjung Cha INNOVATIONS IN SURGERIES AND TRANSPLANTS Super high-tech equipment have already came to healthcare market and do automatecomplex surgeries. In the future automation will allow robots to grow a brand new organ for patient by using his stem cells. The surgical robot may conduct complex operations with higher level of precision and accuracy than humans do.
«Surgical robotics today is very similar to digital computers in the late 70s and early 80s. Certainly, the machines have come a long way, but they are big, bulky and they’re expensive. » — says Guang-Zhong Yang, Hamlyn Centre for Robotic Surgery BREAKTHROUGHS IN COMPUTING AND AI Сloud technologies are about to transform the way we get healthcare treatment. You have recently a chance to see networked Uber — the app that got one over on old-fashioned taxi companies. Or libraries that have been large public spaces for centuries — they are now being emptied out by internet scholars like Wikipedia or Amazon. Apple just launched HealthKit that is aiming to collect and process users’ health data by sensors and telling you what needs attention. New types of computer will boost processing to incredible 9
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
levels that today we can only compare to the World Wide Web. Development of Big Data, the ‘internet of things’ and open-source will allow humans to analyze huge amounts of information. Mapping a human brain and understanding the biophysics inside will explain what intelligence is and help in creating a digital copy of the mind. Projects like the BRAIN initiative launched by Obama, Blue Brain Project or the completed Human Genome Project boost international science and cooperation.
* Human Genome Prject was completed in 2003 by fully mapping human DNA
“Every dollar we invested to map the human genome* returned $140 to our economy — every dollar. Today our scientists are mapping the human brain to unlock the answers to Alzheimer’s. They’re developing drugs to regenerate damaged organs, devising new materials to make batteries 10 times more powerful.” — Barack Obama, 44th President of USA
Surgical robotics today is very similar to digital computers in the late 70s and early 80s. / tumblr.com / Ars Electronica / da Vinci Surgical Robot
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The Russian Condition Russia has rich history approaching immortality: from folklore Koshei the Deathless to leading modern symbol of immortality — Vladimir Lenin. But it was all beyond the basic human need to stay young. Today economical and social issues slow downdevelopment of healthcare system and social institutes.
Painting: Viktor Vasnetsov / Kashchey the Deathless (1927)
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THE RUSSIAN CONDITION
Russian folklore adopted slavic mythologies, creatures that have immortal nature both good and evil: Koshei The Undead, Zmei Gorynich, Leshiy and Zhar-Ptitsa. Theorists of Russian Cosmism claimed civilisation to provide each person with physical immortality and total control over space. Although it was mainly based on religious and philosophical approaches it has developed the way Russian culture interprets immortality.
«… Lenin Lived, Lenin Is Alive, Lenin Will Live!…» — manifested Vladimir Mayakovsky in 1924 the most famous Russian phrase about immortality Physical immortality has been always considered a sin by the Christian church, but it is undergone a transformation in public opinion, especially due to culture and mass media. One of the most famous steps in the process was made by Bulgakov in ‘Heart of a dog’ where Prof. Preobrazhensky managed to transplant organs from a deceased man to a dog. More recently there have been huge discussions about possible head transplantation for the Russian disabled programmer Valery Spiridonov by Italian neurophysicist Sergio Canavero. A huge step was made by surgeon S. Brukhonenko who created the first prototype of the artificial heart and lungs machine that kept a dog’s head alive for several hours. V. Demikhov was the first to perform a successful dog-to-dog head transplant. dog-to-dog head transplant. Atlas is a Russian company that enables its customers to
Merger of the overpopulated government machine with giant state monopolies led to a situation where about half of the economy is under government sector / CreditSuisse / Global Wealth Databook 2014
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IMMORTALITY IN RUSSIA
research genome information, in order to predict possible health issues as well as to find out one’s ancestors. Talking of Russian social and economical specifics formed by such factors as history, climate and culture we defined important sub-trends and patterns that will form future national landscape. Social inequality in Russia has been an issue for long time. Merge of the large government machine and giant state monopolies caused modern situation with about half of the economy belonging to government, while optimal is less than 25%.
Healthcare expenditures by government have never been a focus for governments in Russia /Data: World Bank
As a result there is large social class of low-level government workers, police and military service staff. Such inefficient public services cost significant amounts of money compare to whole Russian GDP. Large inefficient government and poor overall investment atmosphere slows down economical and social development. Low public spendings on healthcare lead to weak outcome in healthcare system. Either lack of R&D investments into new industries or corruption both does not promise breakthroughs to appear in Russia in near future. Furthermore, 15 years of resource economy that is not motivated towards science destroyed most of the USSR advantages. Although it does leave some space for the military, especially for goods that can be sold to developing countries. 13
RUSSIAN TRAJECTORIES
Russian Trajectories Russia’s unique social mix of Western and Eastern culture influenced the way the country choses its own direction: government traditionally played not only an economical function but also ideological, forming a paradoxical united and unequal pair between population and government.
Population density model in Russia include rare highly dense housing zones which is lessextreme than in most of the World / tumblr.com / Khuroshvili Ilya
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IMMORTALITY IN RUSSIA
HOW IMMORTALITY WILL APPEAR IN RUSSIA As mentioned before we assume the life extension technology will follow «Moore’s Law» gradually become affordable for population. Russian government will take leading role in early adoption of life extension for its own. Poor R&D will force authorities to buy technology from abroad. First, it will be for President and ministers then parliament members and so on. Modern middle class in Russia has been recently replaced by new class of public workers who earn above the average. That means they are first in the line who will get access to extend lifespan.
POLITICAL TOOL
The History of Russia demonstrates quite often the theme of huge national projects: space exploration, Volga-Don canal, Sochi Olympics
Russian government always struggled to keep power as long as possible. And most often only leader’s death caused changes and reforms. So national leader who prolongs life become almost ethernal leader. That situation will balk progress and reforms causing dangerous social tensions.
LONG-TERM NATIONAL PROJECTS Huge national projects have always been in country’s blood: space exploration, Volga-Don canal, Sochi Olympics, FIFA World Cup and so on. Such ambitious goals unite the nation. Leader who lives longer will consider even longer national projects than it used to be. The most ambitious one will again follow Russian Cosmism idea to take control over whole Universe.
FAMILY AND PERSONAL CHANGES Because family members are from different cultural paradigms they will live completely different lifestyles. Father will prefer the old-school Lada while son will prefer the brand new Tesla.
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RUSSIAN TRAJECTORIES
CHURCH RESPONSE Growing Orthodox Church influence* on society along with developed world’s liberation covers a potential conflict. The idea of immortality itself is a straight conflict with religious views. So what we see here especially within country’s political isolation is a split in orthodox church. That already had taken place while Russia and CIS countries now have so-called ‘old-believers’ who’s views in some degree are more conservative.
* 62% of Russians don’t want to be immortal, — says social survey made by Levada Center
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IMMORTALITY IN RUSSIA
The Future Settlement Future of the immortality will be highly influenced by two major components: people and infrastructure. It is important to discover major shifts in these two fields and to show how they will transform socio-economical landscape. HUMAN SCALE Talking about very personal level lets take a guy who gets unlimited source of money. Will he treat them the same way he used to? Now let’s imagine you get the same with life extension. Would you value a year if there unlimited amount of them to live through?
FAMILY LEVEL Family of the future will have kids that are almost the same as parents because all of family members will go under regular anti-ageing treatment. So they will most probably look like contemporaries in age.
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THE FUTURE SETTLEMENT
HEALTHCARE Sensors on and inside you will check how drug influenced body and provide your local clinic with the information. It will also enable pharmaceutical industry to collect huge amounts of personal health information to do instant improvements in drugs development.
BIOHACKERS In 2011 super customised computer virus Stuxnet has almost destroyed Iran’s nuclear plant. Era of hyper connectivity where even our bodies connected to global network raises questions. Bio-hacking will become a new issue.‘Internet of Things’ and biotechnologies will create new black markets. Killers of the future are computer nerds doing job thousands kilometres away from witness. Simple change in device embedded settings will harm person’s health easier than a bullet. Then can we still consider immortality be universal?
ECONOMY Pension system is no longer needed. People will always be in a condition to work at any age. Higher automation will need less working power. We will most probably be working on more creative and intellectual jobs and huge role will take constant education process. We will have to work less having more time for personal development.
DEMOGRAPHY Overpopulation* won’t be a problem for decades as Earth’s capacity is at least 10 billion people. Space exploration and regulation practices such as today in China will help too. In far future society will force people turning 200 years to go digitally immortal and criminate physical body; a person will not feel difference from real life but society will not waste space and resources allowing new kid to be born.
* UN predicts 10.9 billion people in 2100
AUTOMATION Global development of automation and dense internet 18
IMMORTALITY IN RUSSIA
networks are going to make a shift in local logistics. People will do less routine stuff they used to; like going to grocery store or in getting healthcare treatment. Buying drugs will be handled by drones’ delivery. Technologies of instant wireless payment will allow paying right to a robot without a cash machine.
LEISURE Highly automated economy frees up for humans more time and resources they can spend on personal development. Growing global unemployment will become a new norm. A job that today takes 10 men in 2050 will need not more than 2. Even though a number of new qualified jobs will appear humanity will no longer need to employ even 30% of the population in order to survive.
VALUES We can expect a new Renaissance era of space discoveries or completely new forms of art. It does not mean humanity will not have any issues. Instead, it will face more complex ones. But more human-oriented values will allow most population to fulfil its potential and to contribute to common wealth. The values we already see in developed countries will cover more of the world population.
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THE FUTURE SETTLEMENT
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THE FUTURE SETTLEMENT
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IMMORTALITY IN RUSSIA
PARTICIPANTS OF THE PROJECT DIRECTORS David Erixon, Anastasia Smirnova TUTOR Brendan McGuetrick STUDENTS Denis Gulyaikin, Designer, Moscow; Alex Karlinskiy, architect, Saratov; Vlad Kiaune, project-manager, Saint Petersburg EXTERNAL EXPERTS Denis Sokolov, Partner at Cushman&Wakefield, Managing Development Consultancy, Research and Marketing Departments; Alexey Turchin, writer, futurist, trans-humanism expert; Ruslan Saygitov - Chief research fellow at International Research and Educational Foresight Centre, Department of Science and Technology Foresight; Deane Simpson, architect, researcher, educator, Royal Danish Academy of Arts School of Architecture, Copenhagen; Ronald Bailey, scientist, writer, economics, biotechnologies, ecology; Ray Kurzweil, futurist, Engineering Director, Google; Warren Ellis, futurist; Gene Wolfe, science fiction and fantasy writer; Aubrey David Nicholas Jasper de Grey, writer, gerontologist, Chief Science Officer at SENS Research Foundation; William Henry “Bill� Andrews, scientist, molecular biologist and gerontologist, cure for human ageing, Sierra Sciences.
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
KEY RESOURCES FOR THE RESEARCH OF LIFE EXTENSION TECHNOLOGIES AND THEORIES ABOUT IMMORTALITY WATSON, R. (2008) Future Files: The 5 Trends That will Shaepe The Next 50 Years 1932–1964, Cambridge, MA: MIT. KURZWEIL, R. (1992) Singularity Is Near, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. KURZWEIL, R. (2000) Now To Create A Mind, London: Penguin. GIFFORD, B. (2008) pring Chicken: Stay Young Forever (or Die Trying), New York, NY: Princeton Architectural Press. BARD, A., JAN SODERQVIST (2002) Netocracy: the New Power Elite and Life After Capitalism, London: Reuters. BARTHES, R. (1967) Death of the Author, UbuWeb Papers. FRANKLIN, D. AND ANDREWS J. (2000) Megachange: The World In 2050, Cambridge: Polity Press. SCHRÖDINGER, E. (2001) What Is Life?, Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. KAGANSKY, V. (2013) Как Устроена Россия? Портрет Культурного Ландшафта, Moscow: Strelka Press. HUSKINS, M., VAN KUIKEN S. AND VELAMOOR (2002) ‘Applying Lean IT To Healthcare’, McKinsey Global Institute. BIESDORF, S. AND NIEDERMANN, F. (2014) ‘Healthcare’s digital future’, McKinsey Global Institute.
Care With Big Data And The Industrial Internet’, MIT Technology Review. NULAND, D. (1983) The Society of the Spectacle, London: Rebel Press. TOKAREVA, A. AND GUTSCHOW, N. (ed.) (2005) ‘Доля Государства в Российской Экономике’, Kommersant. CHA, A.E. (1987) ‘Tech titans’ latest project: Defy death’, The Washington Post. DE GRAAF R., BAIRD L. (2013) Foresight In Hindsight, Strelka Institute For Media Architecture And Design. GRAIS, B. (2015) Русский Космизм, Moscow: Ad Marginem Press. HUGHES, V. (2004) ’Ageing: The Girls Who Never Grow Older’, BBC. RAZDYANKOV, V. (2012) ’Философия природы: алхимия и поиски пятого элемента’, Theory And Practice. FAWKES P. (2014) ‘The Future Of Health’, PSFK Labs. ELLIS W. (2015) Cunning Plans: Talks by Warren Ellis, SUMMON Books. CAVE S. (2012) Immortality: The Quest To Live Forever And How It Drives Civilization, New York, Crown Publishers. CREDIT SUISSE (2014) ‘Global Wealth Report’, Research Institute.
NO NAME (2015) ‘Health And Appiness’, The Economist,
MOISEEVA O., MOISEEV V. (2015) ‘Phylosophy of Medicine’, Mayak Radio.
REGALADO, A. (2015) ‘Apple Has Plans for Your DNA’, MIT Technology Review.
WOLFE G. Twelve Tomorrows (2014), MA: MIT Technology Review.
HIGASHI, M. (1995) ‘Transforming Health 24
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work has been done with large support of our tutors. The amount of energy our leading tutor Brendan McGuetrick spend on us may never be overestimated. We express our warmest gratitude for long and creative discussions to art-curator Izabella Cichonska. Curator of this year Winy Maas provided our team with short and intense feedbacks, although sometimes we weren’t precise in following them, we always thankful for sincere and thoughtful help that we got. Some of the most impressive moments during the year we’ve experienced with David either when we were presenting sometimes chaotic thoughts or holding team feedback sessions. Such a broad mind with strong leadership skills hardly anyone would imagine. We wish we’d have more time spend with Paul McCabe practicing self-leadership and sometime to finally build our group common purpose that we missed at some moment. For all the time we felt confident guidance of Anastasia Smirnova helping us formulate our thoughts in a clear way and teaching us to come up with authentic conceptual decisions; it was incredibly important things we better keep in mind. Huge amounts of work have been done together with our faculty team Kuba Snopek, Nicholas Moore and Daria Paramonova when we seperately worked on definitions, texts, videos and collages. The last but definitely not least ones are our coordinators Evgenia Pospelova who easily give healing kick when you miss deadline and Mila who probably became a closest friend to each student. We don’t forget Lisa Smirnova too, thank you. There have been a lot more people we wish we would give personal thanks who influenced the things we learned.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
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