states will be involved. As in the Cold gether with (symbolic) forces from EuWar, overcoming an 'US-French' divide ropean and North American is required. But now, the matter is of a member states. technical rathef than of a politica I natu-
NATO •
re: instead of on a grand design and poIitical relations , discussions are on per-
sonel and equipment and military relations. Moreover, development of the WEU can be handled step by step. Also 'Michiel de Weger was a stagiaire at the the second stage of developing CJTF in- NA TG Press Service and Division of Po/ivolves no grand design - it depends on lical Affairs. He is a memher of the jason the relations NATO develops with indi- Foundation 's General Board. vidual countries in Centra l, Easrern and
Northern Europe. These relations will first be developed through participation in PFP, but will smoothly be stretched into CJTF. No non-member can block CJTF's development, while every additional cou ntry developing links with NATO (or later WEU) will take CJTF possibilities a step further. If Austria does not want to undertake peacekeeping with NATO , Sweden and Finland might want to. CJTF might even develop into conditional NATO membership: a country can be offered contingency planning for operations with NATO to defuse a crisis or to repel an ou(-
right attack against its territory. CJTF mighr seem to create a chaotic system of operationa l cooperation arrangements between countries. But thar is
only temporary. The third phase of CJTF in some way does depend on the number of cOllntries joining NATO in
CJTF's. It depends on the extent of overlap in membership with the CSCE. Perfect overlap will make specialization to a definitive relationship between NATO and CSCE/ UN more likely. If all participate in PFP/ CJTF, all recognize the likelihood of contingencies creating a demand for joint operations. Then they would be far more like ly to concentrate their efforts in CSCE/ UN on legitimizing operations, rather than ad hoc gathering o r even gathering of troops for permanent disposal.
Whtch qTF's? Apart from the WEU, what ot her CJTF's are likely? This is no more than a n educated guess: • a peacekeeping headquarter for operations in (he CSCE-area consis-
ting of European NATO member states, Scandinavian countries and later (or ini-
tially just with smaller involvement) the Visegrad states . • a crisis deployment CJTF for operations in the Baltic and Visegrad states with these states participating to-
Jason Magazine no. 4, August 1994
33