Nigeria: A Fresh Start

Page 1

NIGERIA A
FRESH
START The
Future
Will
Be
Different.

THE

RISING

SUN

The
Future
Will
Be
Different,
 We
Are
Ready
For
It.

A
presentation
by
Sterling.ng Page


1

NIGERIA.
A
FRESH
START.

THE

RISING

SUN

While
 the
 novelty
 of
 this
 new
 virus
 may
 shroud
 the
 validity
 of
 this
 adage,
truly,
there
remains
nothing
new.
As
with
previous
pandemics,
 COVID-19
has
brought
the
world
to
its
knees.
 Its
magnitude,
combined
with
globalisation,
has
rid
the
world
of
safe
havens,
and
forced
an
 abrupt
pause.
With
this
pause
comes
a
new
order:
one
that
overrides
the
best-laid
plans,
and
 commands
a
reimagining;
one
with
new
opportunities.

Page


2

NIGERIA.
A
FRESH
START.

THE

RISING

SUN

A
Global
Scan Relaunching
Nigeria An
Industry
In
Flight The
Sterling
Way Vision
2020
Revisited

Page


3

NIGERIA.
A
FRESH
START.

THE

RISING

SUN

-
Winston
Churchill

Page


4

NIGERIA.
A
FRESH
START.

THE

RISING

SUN

A
Global
Scan

THE
WORLD
IS
TRULY INTERCONNECTED...

Though
 national
 governments
 have
 taken
 proactive
 measures
 toward
 bolstering
 the
 social
 and
 economic
impacts
of
COVID-19,
the
global
economic
outlook
remains
bleak.

World
 output,
 according
 to
 the
 International
Monetary
 Fund
 (IMF),
 is
 expected
 to
 contract
 by
 3%,
 making
 this
 the
 worst
 since
 the
 Great
 Depression.
 For
 Sub-Saharan
 Africa,
 the
 World
 Bank
 predicts
 an
 economic
decline
from
2.4%
in
2019
to
as
low
as
-5.1%
in
2020. On
a
positive
note:
this
pandemic
highlights
our
interconnectedness,
and
how
far
we
have
come
with

 technology
and
globalization.
We
are
more
conscious
as
individuals,
and
as
leaders,
about
the
effect
of
 our
actions
on
the
entire
world.
This
collective
responsibility
poses
a
catch-22:
the
better
we
respond
to
 curtailing
the
crisis
through
lock-downs,
the
harder
our
economies
are
hit.

Yet,
if
we
fail
to
take
the
difficult
but
necessary
precautions
to
flatten
the
 curve,
 more
 aggressive
 measures
 will
 be
 required
 to
 soothe
 the
 resultant
economic
and
social
pain.
 Deciding
how
much
adverse
effects
on
supply
chains,
revenue,
employment,
demand
and
per-capita
 income
to
trade-off
for
saving
more
lives
and
preventing
unmitigated
disruption
to
our
economies
must
 the
most
difficult
decision
any
leader
has
ever
made
outside
war.

Page


5

NIGERIA.
A
FRESH
START.

THE

RISING

SUN

AND
AFRICA
RELIES
ON
 THE
GLOBAL
SUPPLY
CHAIN...

There
will
be
trade-offs.
For
African
countries,
the
price
to
pay
may
be
higher
due
to
our
high
 level
of
dependency
on
the
global
supply
chain
(illustrated
below).
Our
notable
trade
deficits
 also
presage
foreseen
economic
disruption;
resource-exporting
countries
experiencing
 sharp
declines
in
revenue,
and
in
turn,
weakening
currencies
and
dampening
purchasing
 powers.

Nigeria

China

Spain

Italy

France

TOTAL

4.10%

3.10%

–

2.80%

–

28%

6.80%

8.20%

5.20%

14.20%

2.80%

9.80%

–

18.40%

Algeria

18.10%

Morocco

United
Kingdom

19.40%

South-Africa Egypt

India

–

2.50% –

–

–

– –

15.80%

–

4.30% 5.60%

2.90% –

9.30%

11.90%

30% 21%

42% 43%

Source:
Santander
Trade

Nigeria,
with
86%
of
its
export
revenue
is
represented
by
petroleum
and
31%
of
its
2020
 budget
revenue
is
accounted
for
by
oil
revenue,
the
impact
of
the
lockdowns
will
be
 immediate.
Head
(export)
or
tail
(import),
this
will
be
a
year
to
forget.

Page


6

NIGERIA.
A
FRESH
START.

THE

RISING

SUN

Looking
forward,
away
from
the
 pandemic,
three
areas
remain
at

 the
forefront
of
global
relationships:

1.
ENERGY
&
ENVIRONMENTAL
POLITICS 2.
TRADE
 3.
TECHNOLOGY

Page


7 Page


1

NIGERIA.
A
FRESH
START.

THE

RISING

SUN

WHAT
WE
SEE
IS NOT
PRETTY
BUT...

We
see
an
energy
battle
but
a
climate
war

At
the
onset
of
the
outbreak,
two
major
oil
producers
started
a
battle
for
market
share.
The
show
 of
 strength
 between
 Saudi
 Arabia
 and
 Russia
 drove
 prices
 down
 sharply,
 catching
 the
 commodity
exporting
nations
off-guard.
A
global
containment
of
covid-19
and
a
demand
shock
 has
quickly
halted
the
game
of
energy
dominance
but
failed
to
end
the
downward
spiral.

The
 climate
 challenge
 arising
 from
 this
 is
 double
 edged;
 a
 sustained
 moderation
in
energy
consumption
is
good
for
the
environment
but
 lower
crude
oil
prices
erode
the
competitiveness
of
alternative
energy.

 Can
the
advancements
in
clean
energy
match
a
$30
per
barrel
fossil
fuel?

The
science
suggests
that
climate
crisis
will
be
worse
than
the
effects
of
covid-19,
and
unlike
the
 virus,
once
we
wreck
the
environment,
there’s
no
vaccine
to
look
forward
to.

Page


8

NIGERIA.
A
FRESH
START.

THE

RISING

SUN

THE
PANDEMIC
WILL HASTEN
A
RESOLUTION...

but
Technology
is
the
biggest
trade

“Trade
wars
are
good
and
easy
to
win”.

What
is
certain
is
that
there
has
to
be
a
balance,
it
is
no
longer
viable
to
have
one
dominant
 factory
 for
 the
 world;
 building
 redundancy
 in
 the
 global
 supply
 chain
 and
 having
 multiple
 suppliers
will
become
the
preferred
&
sensible
approach
in
the
coming
years. 
 Technology
has
gone
from
being
a
useful
tool
for
productivity
enhancement
to
a
new
front
in
 the
 trade
 war
 and
 in
 its
 most
 extreme
 form,
 a
 security
 threat
 to
 the
 sovereignty
 of
 nations.
 Technology
will
become
the
more
important
discussion
for
countries
and
how
they
relate
going
 forward.

Beyond
the
role
technology
has
played
in
keeping
the
economy
open
 during
the
great
lockdown
and
the
greater
role
in
future
recovery,
its
real
 power
lies
in
its
ability
to
shape
social
consciousness,
gather
intelligence
 and
erode
longstanding
advantages
of
conventional
warfare.

Page


9

NIGERIA.
A
FRESH
START.

THE

RISING

SUN

Now
that
the
world
is
anew is
this
Nigeria’s
remake?

WE
CANNOT
EXPECT
OTHERS
TO
 COME
TO
OUR
ASSISTANCE... WE
CAN
ONLY
DEPEND
ON OURSELVES
NOW

-
President
Muhammadu
Buhari

Page


10

NIGERIA.
A
FRESH
START.

THE

RISING

SUN

Relaunching
Nigeria

AS
FAR
AS OIL
CAN
GO

It
is
said
that
Nigeria
has
an
impeccable
survival
record.
It
just
keeps
going
no
matter
what.
 Nigeria
 is
 currently
 battling
 with
 the
 twin
 shocks
 of
 a
 surge
 in
 COVID-19
 cases
 leading
 to
 economic
lock-downs
and
a
slump
in
oil
prices,
turning
negative
for
the
first
time
in
history.

The
fallout
from
the
plunge
in
non-oil
revenues
due
to
the
lock-down
in
certain
parts
of
the
 country,
thinning
out
in
oil
revenue
and
a
weakening
current
account
has
compelled
the
Federal
 government
to
resort
to
external
borrowing
from
the
International
Monetary
Fund
and
World
 Bank.

Resilient,
 nonetheless,
 the
 nation
 is
 adopting
 survival
 methods,
 and
 proving
that
the
philosophy
of
‘government
enabled;
private-sector
led’
 is
superior
to
the
‘government-led’
previously
favored.
 From
the
emergence
of
telecommunications
and
the
growth
in
agriculture,
the
private
sector
 economy
is
increasingly
growing
critical
sectors
of
our
economy
while
creating
jobs.

IS
THAT
SUCH A
BAD
THING?

History
has
shown
that
in
the
aftermath
of
every
pandemic,
new
industries
emerge
from
the
 ashes.

As
Nigeria
sets
out
to
re-build
its
economy
sustainably,
we
expect
an
emergence
of
 these
sectors
and
industries:

Public
Health:
We
continue
to
advocate
for
and
expect
to
see
mandatory
health
 insurance,
a
ramp
up
of
local
production
in
pharmaceuticals
and
basic
medical
 materials. Information
and
Telecommunication
Technology:
Technology
will
drive
 entrepreneurship
as
companies
strive
to
capture
the
benefit
of
remote
work
while
 enhancing
their
productivity. Intermediation:
In
the
absence
of
reliable
data,
financial
services
had
struggled
to

Page


11

NIGERIA.
A
FRESH
START.

THE

RISING

SUN

mainstream
access
to
credit
and
distribute
investments.

The
adoption
of
new
technology

 will
enable
geometric
growth
in
financing
for
consumers
and
small
businesses;
a
critical

 component
of
any
economic
recovery
plan.

...OR
THE
LAUNCH OF
A
REAL
ECONOMY

Power:
The
demand
for
electricity
will
continue
to
increase,
but
the
supply
constraint

 
 remains.
We
remain
committed
to
renewable
energy
as
the
most
viable
alternative
for
 
 Nigeria. 
 Light
Manufacturing:
Proudly
Nigerian
will
become
more
than
branding.
The
critical
role

 
 they
provide
for
revenue
and
consumption
mean
that
manufacturers
will
get
a
bigger


 
 boost
either
through
concessionary
financing
or
an
improvement
in
the
required

 
 infrastructure.
 










Agriculture:
With
the
increasing
risk
of
a
global
food
shortage,
Nigeria
will
continue
to
 
 pursue
a
strategy
of
food
sufficiency
to
drastically
reduce
the
need
to
import.
Combined



 
 with
the
urgent
need
to
conserve
foreign
exchange,
food
cultivation,
processing,
storage
 
 and
trading
will
witness
sizeable
investment
supported
with
single
digit
intervention

 
 financing.

Page


12

NIGERIA.
A
FRESH
START.

THE

RISING

SUN

An
Industry
In
Flight

YET
ANOTHER
 BANKING
EPITAPH...

Post
 Covid
 (PC),
 we
 will
 expect
 more
 technological
 innovation
 (data
 science,
 artificial
 intelligence,
 machine
 learning)
 and
 more
 inclusive
 regulations
 to
 accommodate
 new
 entrants
 –
 technology
 firms,
 specialist
finance
providers
and
other
large
institutions.

The
 operating
 environment
 of
 the
 Nigerian
 banking
 sector
 coming
 into
 2020
 was
 already
 challenged.
Add
a
significant
drop
in
oil
prices
as
well
as
a
pandemic
to
the
mix
and
the
signals
of
 deterioration
in
asset
quality
–
with
the
consequent
rise
in
impairment
losses
–
become
very
 clear.
Even
with
the
monetary
policy
response
to
COVID-19,
we
think
it
is
only
a
matter
of
time
 before
loans
start
to
migrate
from
performing
or
watchlisted
to
non-performing
status,
with
oil
 &
gas,
hospitality,
real
estate,
transportation
and
small
businesses
taking
a
big
hit.

For
Nigeria,
financial
services,
telecoms,
fintech
and
government
must
now
work
together
to
 accelerate
access
to
credit
and
cushion
the
effects
of
the
economic
disruption.

...AND
MAYBE,
CRYPTOCURRENCIES
 BY
OTHER
MEANS

An
explosion
in
digital
transactions
is
expected
Post-Covid
with
cryptocurrency
taking
a
center
 stage;
 Recent
 report
 of
 an
 800
 percent
 rise
 in
 cryptocurrency
 transactions
 in
 India
 could
 catalyse
the
emergence
of
digital
money.
The
bank
for
international
settlement
and
the
central
 banks
of
Switzerland,
Japan,
Canada,
European
Union
and
United
Kingdom
have
accelerated
 research
into
viability
of
digital
currencies.

On
the
back
of
the
damaging
trade
war,
a
new
world
order
where
the
dollar
is
one
of
many
 reserve
currencies
could
emerge,
with
sovereign
backed
digital
currencies
in
the
mix.

Page


13

NIGERIA.
A
FRESH
START.

THE

RISING

SUN

The
Sterling
Way

STERLING.NG ENRICHING
LIVES...

On
the
1st
of
January,
2019,
we
were
reborn
as
Sterling
–
to
highlight
the
change
in
how
we
see
 our
 challenges,
 the
 competition
 and
 ourselves.
 Our
 business
 model
 will
 leverage
 industry
 knowledge,
advanced
technology
&
ethical
financing
to
empower
our
stakeholders.
.

...LEGACY
NOT STAGNANCY

Our
journey
towards
a
fully
digital
product
stack
began
in
2016
with
the
 switch
to
a
best
in
class
CORE
banking
systems,
the
backbone
of
any
 banking
transformation.
We
have
continued
to
invest
in
systems
that
 allow
 all
 customers
 self-serve
 and
 enable
 our
 workers
 to
 function
 remotely.

These
investments
paid
off
with
the
current
disruption
as
our
staff
are
able
to
function
remotely
 without
significant
loss
in
productivity.
As
we
head
into
the
post
covid
world,
our
people
strategy
 remains
the
same,
build
the
best
place
to
work.
There
is
no
better
time
for
us
to
leverage
the
new
 way
of
work
to
improve
efficiencies,
while
enhancing
the
quality
of
the
lives
of
our
employees
as
 they
adopt
more
flexible
work
culture.

The
 two
 most
 popular
 in-branch
 transactions
 have
 continued
 to
 decline
as
more
of
our
customers
moved
to
self-service.
As
at
the
end
of
 2019,
 customer
 induced
 payments
 on
 mobile
 devices
 had
 replaced
 most
 withdrawals
 and
 transfers,
 freeing
 up
 our
 branches
 to
 provide
 better
experiences.

Page


14

NIGERIA.
A
FRESH
START.

THE

RISING

SUN

...A
FULLY
 digital
PLAYBOOK

Digitization
must
empower
us
to
grow
existing
markets
and
create
new
 markets
in
a
more
effective,
more
efficient,
and
more
engaging
manner.
 This
has
guided
us
in
our
product
and
service
design
allowing
us
to
build
 our
own
truly
local
digital
playbook.

Our
product
stack,
including
lending,
payments,
investments
and
commerce
are
the
outcomes
 of
rethinking
legacy
systems
where
possible
as
well
as
radical
new
thinking
to
serve
in
the
digital
 world
both
online
and
offline.

The
 key
 achievements
 of
 our
 digital
 playbook
 are
 its
 contribution
 to
 customer
 acquisition,
 revenue
generation
and
loan
book
growth.
Our
products
are
designed
with
a
B2B2C
(businessto-
business-to-customer)
model,
bringing
trust,
scale
and
transparency
to
our
ecosystems.

...BANKING
 AS
A
SERVICE

Payments
is
at
the
heart
of
banking.
While
we
continue
to
specialize
even
in
our
approach
to
 markets,
products
such
as
our
OneBank
(digital
bank),
Switch
(Diaspora
banking),
SterlingPro
 (transaction
 banking)
 have
 world
 class
 payment
 capabilities
 that
 empower
 individuals
 and
 businesses
to
move
money
easily
locally
and
internationally.

Enriching
lives
requires
that
you
understand
and
provide
the
right
solutions
to
the
customer’s
 problems.
Our
lending
system
aims
to
ensure
access
to
finance
is
not
an
obstacle
to
growth.
Our
 flagship
lending
product
-
Specta
(www.myspecta.com),
contributes
5%
of
our
loan
book
and
 growing.

We
resolved
to
extend
banking
for
the
average
consumer
and
small
business
beyond
payments
 and
credit,
to
advisory
and
wealth
building
through
Doubble
(www.doubble.ng)
and
i-invest
 (www.i-investng.com).
 These
 applications
 provide
 compelling
 investments
 options
 for
 individuals
and
businesses
alike
through
self-service.

Page


15

NIGERIA.
A
FRESH
START.

THE

RISING

SUN

Vision
2020
Revisited

...SOLVE
PROBLEMS
 CLOSE
TO
OUR
HEARTS

We
remain
committed
to
doing
our
part
for
the
sectors
that
ensure
the
 well-being
of
an
economy.
The
HEART
(Health,
Education,
Agriculture,
 Renewable
Energy
and
Transportation)
of
Sterling
will
use
finance
and
 technology
to
build
capacity
and
scale
businesses
in
these
sectors.

This
will
range
from
providing
power
for
individuals
and
funding
for
clean
energy
businesses
 through
Imperium,
supporting
SMEs
through
AltMall
(www.altmall.ng)

and
unlocking
credit
on
 SABEX,
our
digital
commodities
trading
platform
for
agriculture.

SABEX
provides
real
time
credit
finance
for
farmers,
secures
storage
and
a
ready
market
for
both
 farmers
and
buyers
to
transact
thereby
reducing
post-harvest
wastage
of
farm
produce
across
 the
 country.
 We
 will
 continue
 to
 expand
 our
 investment
 in
 transport
 technology
 through
 Farepay
(www.farepay.ng)
which
allows
for
transparency
in
the
collection
system
for
transport
 services.

OUR
HOLISTIC
SUPPORT FOR
THE
HEALTH
SECTOR

We
recently
announced
multiple
donations
to
ensure
a
holistic
response
to
the
Coronavirus
 pandemic
ravaging
the
world.

The
donations
cut
across
infrastructural
support
to
providing
opportunity
for
free
tests
across
 different
 locations
 and
 financial
 support
 to
 the
 federal
 government
 in
 partnership
 with
 the
 Nigerian
Private
Sector
Coalition
Against
COVID. The
sum
of
N250
million
was
donated
to
support
the
Federal
Government's
effort
to
curtail
 the
spread
of
the
novel
Coronavirus
(COVID-19)
in
the
country
and
end
the
epidemic. Also,
 in
 furtherance
 of
 its
 focus
 on
 not
 just
 the
 health
 sector
 but
 the
 healthcare
 professionals
who
risk
their
lives
while
treating
infected
persons,
we
have
also
supported

Page


16

NIGERIA.
A
FRESH
START.

THE

RISING

SUN crowdfunding
platform,
www.giving.ng
to
raise
a
N1billion
Health
Workers
Fund
to
cater
 to
the
needs
of
health
workers
at
the
front-lines
taking
care
of
those
infected
with
the
 Coronavirus
 disease
 (COVID-19).
 We
 donated
 N25million
 to
 kick-start
 the
 fund.
 It
 will
 enable
 corporations,
 institutions
 and
 individuals
 in
 Nigeria
 and
 the
 diaspora
 support
 healthcare
workers
and
reward
them
for
their
sacrifice
and
bravery.

In
addition
to
this,
we
also
supported
the
country's
first
COVID-19
drive-thru
mass
mobile
 testing
center
with
an
initial
investment
of
N10million.
This
was
done
in
partnership
with
 Life
Bank
and
the
Nigerian
Institute
of
Medical
Research
(NIMR)
to
make
testing
easier
and
 faster.
 This
 reduces
 the
 burden
 of
 testing
 on
 the
 Nigerian
 Center
 of
 Disease
 Control
 (NCDC)
and
the
risk
of
contagion
of
the
disease
due
to
ignorance
of
infected
persons.
The
 investment
 will
 be
 scaled
 up
 as
 the
 project
 expands
 to
 different
 locations
 across
 the
 country.

To
strengthen
public
health
infrastructure,
the
Bank
donated
N50million
for
the
equipping
 of
 the
 COVID-19
 Isolation
 ward
 at
 the
 National
 Orthopedic
 Hospital,
 Igbobi,
 Lagos
 in
 partnership
 with
 Fate
 foundation
 philanthropy
 
 to
 cater
 to
 the
 increasing
 COVID-19
 confirmed
cases.

The
Bank
will
continue
scaling
efforts
to
mitigate
the
negative
impact
of
 the
pandemic
and
promote
a
healthy
society
for
the
country.

...bad,
but
not all
bad
news

We
see
some
clear
threats
to
our
business
but
the
opportunities
are
overwhelming
for
the
 discerning:

A
 contraction
 in
 banking
 sector
 bottom-line
 due
 to
 regulatory
 and
 macroeconomic
 headwinds;
 An
increase
in
impairment
losses
further
putting
a
pressure
on
earnings; Increased
investment
(private
and
public
sector)
in
our
areas
of
focus,
specifically
Health
 care,
Agriculture
and
Education Increased
adoption
of
our
digital
offerings
by
customers
in
response
to
social
distancing
 rules

Page


17

NIGERIA.
A
FRESH
START.

THE

RISING

SUN

2020 REVISITED

We
fully
understand
that
the
knock-on
effect
of
falling
oil
prices
and
the
 Covid-19
 induced
 economic
 shutdown
 will
 affect
 our
 business
 projections
for
2020
and
beyond.

We
 understand
 the
 risks
 posed
 by
 the
 impending
 global
 recession
 but
 we
 are
 prepared
 to
 weather
the
storm,
like
we
have
done
so
many
times
in
the
past
60
years.

We
are
equally
alive
to
 the
opportunities
we
have
highlighted
even
as
we
navigate
the
threats.

2020
 may
 not
 be
 the
 year
 we
 all
 planned
 for
 but
 it
 is
 an
 opportunity
 to
 strengthen
 our
 foundation,
demonstrate
 
our
commitment
to
our
employees
and
our
customers,
contribute
 generously
to
the
fight
against
a
once
in
a
lifetime
pandemic
and
still
deliver
meaningful
returns
 to
our
shareholders.

Thank
You Page


18

NIGERIA.
A
FRESH
START.

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