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2022 Trends to Watch: Manufacturing technology

Manufacturing Technology Analyst askananalyst@omdia.com

© 2021 Omdia

Brought to you by Informa Tech

2022 Trends To Watch| December 2021

Key messages

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-

1

2

3

4

5

Sustainability: net-zero

Supply chain bottlenecks

Input cost fluctuation

Shift from CapEx to OpEx :

Enterprise and software

The roadmap for the top 50 manufacturing companies.

- Critical component shortages and prolonged lead-times.

The sustainability challenge.

- Shipping delays and bottlenecks in major shipping ports.

- Energy supply volatility in China impacting global markets.

- Critical component shortages.

- COVID-19 impacting order fulfillment and growing backlogs.

- Entrance of major software and cloud providers into the industrial space.

- Key applications include IIoT, factory and warehouse automation.

- The future of manufacturing through connectivity

Information Classification: General

2022 Trends To Watch| December 2021

Electric motors in manufacturing consume around one third of the world’s electricity, a total of 8.6 Trillion KWH, the equivalent of the annual electricity consumed by China and India. MEPS (Minimum Energy Performance Standards) for low voltage motors have played an important role in helping countries to meet energy efficiency and carbon dioxide emission targets.

Sustainability and carbon neutrality influencing manufacturing investment

Global LV installed base by efficiency level 2018 vs 2025

Attachment rate of motors and drives

~19%

2018

in 2014

2025 0%

Sustainability and carbon neutrality goals influencing global manufacturing investment from three aspects:

20%

40%

60%

IE1 - standard efficiency

IE2 - high efficiency

IE3 - premium efficiency

IE4 - super premium

Efficiency standards in automation products

Digital transformation in manufacturing facilities

Biomass, 9.9% Hydro, 2.7%

By 2025, the number of IE3 and IE4 installed motors is projected to double; attachment rate of drives increases to 26% .

The world primary energy demand by fuel type, 2035

Other renewables, 2.5%

Other renewables, 7.2% Biomass, 10.2%

Oil, 30.0%

Nuclear, 5.2%

Hydro, 2.9%

Oil, 29.7%

Nuclear, 5.7%

Natural gas, 23.3% Source: Omdia

Information Classification: General

100%

in 2020

Primary energy demand shifting slowly from traditional to renewable sources, attracting investment to accelerate infrastructure development.

The world primary energy demand by fuel type, 2020

Energy mix: Area of investment in industrial sectors

80%

~23%

Coal, 26.5%

© 2021 Omdia

Natural gas, 23.9% Source: Omdia

Coal, 20.4% © 2021 Omdia

The sustainability challenge In 2020 35 billion tonnes of Carbon Dioxide were emitted One third was from manufacturing and construction.

Industrial energy consumption estimated to reach 240.2 quadrillion BTUs in 2020 Only 8.5% of industrial energy consumption was from renewable sources

16 billion gallons of water are consumed by US factories every day.

US factories emit 1.2 trillion gallons of untreated sewage and industrial waste every year

3.2 billion tonnes of metal and 4.1 billion tonnes of cement were produced in 2019.

Industrial pollution accounts for 50% of all pollution in the US

Sustainability and carbon neutrality influencing manufacturing investment

Information Classification: General

2022 Trends To Watch| December 2021

2022 Trends To Watch| December 2021

Rising input costs

Global supply chain disruption Supply chain disruption worsening caused by components shortage and lead-time delays, restricting market growth.

Supply chain bottleneck reshapes industrial business models

Gas and coal prices soar as the energy supply crunch continues globally. This will further increase manufacturing costs and could lead to temporary closure of energy intensive factories.

Asia & Oceania - 6.5% EMEA - 5.3% Americas - 6.1%

Information Classification: General

Strong order intake reported by major automation equipment suppliers in post-pandemic recovery.

Global industrial automation equipment markets forecast lowest % revenue growth

16% 14%

CAGR 20 - 24 (%)

Revenue CAGR 20-24 by region

Global industrial automation equipment markets forecast highest % revenue growth CAGR 20 -24 (%)

6.6% growth from 2021

Orders surge as Covid-19 recovery begins

Energy crunch

Industrial automation equipment market Projected to reach $22.5 billion in 2022

Increase in freight costs, commodity prices, and component costs are heavily impacting industrial markets.

12% 10% 8% 6% 4%

2% 0% Robotics

Materials Handling Semiconductor Equipment (MHE) Machinery

4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% Oil & Gas

Pulp & Paper Machinery

Printing Machinery

Sample Report Name Here | Month 2021

Supply chain bottleneck reshapes industrial business models Forecast scenario automotive order inflation

Secondhand equipment market

2

Supply chain disruptions have resulted in a boom in the secondhand equipment. Growth in 2nd hand equipment will inevitably dilute future growth of new machinery.

Orders (2019 = 1)

1.5

Historical data 1

Minimum customization

0.5 Impact of COVID-19 0

2019

2020

Historical Semicon Manufacturer 1

2021

2022

Automotive Manufacturer Semicon Manufacturer 2

2023

2024

2025

Electronics Manufacturer

Source: Omdia

In order to remain competitive in the market, equipment and automation vendors are targeting product markets with basic functionality with minimal customization to reduce the impact of extended lead-times.

Freight and shipping

© 2021 Omdia

Freight cost increased

Input cost spike

in 2021

in 2021

~70-95%

Information Classification: General

~15-20 %

Average lead-times

~12 to 15 weeks in 2021

Increased delays and shipping costs have significantly impacted the industrial landscape throughout the pandemic. With the continuation of geopolitical tension with China and the US/Europe fright and shipping is expected to return to normalcy sometime in 2023.

Sample Report Name Here | Month 2021

Fluctuation in manufacturing input cost

Manufacturing costs increasing

$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $-

Crude oil, WTI

2023Q4

2023Q3

2023Q2

2023Q1

2022Q4

2022Q3

2022Q2

2022Q1

2021Q4

2021Q3

2021Q2

2021Q1

2020Q4

2020Q3

2020Q2

Rising manufacturing input costs coupled with soaring logistic costs are pressuring higher product prices for global manufactures. This is especially prevalent in US industrial markets.

2020Q1

$/bbl

Crude oil price

Crude oil, Brent

Source: IHS Markit, November 2021

© 2021 Omdia

Commodity price $2,500

Cost reduction Manufacturers have suspended low- margin product in favor of higher profitability. Shortages have also impacted product functionality as seen in the automotive sector where some models have been released with less features.

$2,000 $1,500

Supply chain diversification

$1,000 $500

Hot-rolled coil,US, $/short ton Source: IHS Markit, November 2021

Information Classification: General

2023Q4

2023Q3

2023Q2

2023Q1

2022Q4

2022Q3

2022Q2

2022Q1

2021Q4

2021Q3

2021Q2

2021Q1

2020Q4

2020Q3

2020Q2

2020Q1

2019Q4

2019Q3

2019Q2

2019Q1

$-

Cold-rolled coil,US, $/short ton © 2021 Omdia

Manufactures are seeking supply chain alternatives to save procurement costs. In preparation for future markets manufactures will look to significantly de-risk supply chain dependency on Asia.

This will be achieved through closer to consumption production.

Sample Report Name Here | Month 2021

Enterprise and software companies - New entrants into the industrial ecosystem Cloud providers: Major machine vision providers are rapidly deploying deep-learning enabled solutions.

The entrance of Amazon, Microsoft and Google into the industrial vision space has accelerated the adoption of deep learning (DL) functionality for leading machine vision providers.

This trend will impact the growth of smart cameras and smart sensors deployment outside low volume-controlled environments. This will also be seen with the growing utility of system on chips (SOC). The impact of smart devices and DL solutions has been seen most ubiquitously in the logistics and packaging industry. Barcode track and trace solutions are being deployed to combat a boom in E-commerce demand constrained by manufacturing job shortages and COVID-19 restrictions.

Artificial intelligence and machine vision

Machine vision software provider landscape- 2021 35%

32%

30%

27%

25% 21% 20% 15%

12% 8%

10%

Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Machine learning (ML)

Deep learning (DL) Convolutional neural network (CNN)

5% 0% Traditional rule based software

System software

Library software

Open source tools

Deep learning / AI functionality

Information Classification: General

Top-3 products, based on amount of newly connected nodes: - Remote I/O - PLC - Sensors

Digitalization of the industry is driving the growth in the connected nodes.

Connected nodes, millions

Global market for newly connected nodes 300

20.0%

250

15.0%

200

10.0%

150

5.0%

100

0.0%

50

-5.0%

0

-10.0%

Top-3 product, based on CAGR of the amount of newly connected nodes: Motion controller Servo drive

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Connected nodes

Industrial communication market Estimated to grow 10.3% in 2021, after a hit in 2020 due to the pandemic CAGR of the new connected nodes 2020-2025 : 13,1%

Discrete safety

YoY Growth

0%

Market growth driver – digitalization of the industry/smart manufacturing: ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪

Flexible and Modular production Remote manufacturing Sustainable production Cybersecurity Improved quality Reduced costs

▪ ▪ ▪

5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Enabler and communication tools are: Converged network and device interoperability Open architecture of the network IT technologies growing into OT: ▪ Digital Twin ▪ Edge computing ▪ Cloud integration ▪ Artificial Intelligence ▪ Industrial Ethernet in the field

Key success factor is data availability, accessibility and data management capacity and tools Information Classification: General

Machine vision applications

Sample Report Name Here | Month 2021

Vision applications: The product does not drive the application market From the onset of the pandemic machine vision providers have raced to deploy AI and deep learning in the hope of exploiting new applications. This has also been illustrated by boom in M&A activity with the likes of sensor, chip and cloud providers. Ultimately the landscape of vision applications cannot be changed by short-term product launches and is still comprised of traditional vision use-cases.

Further progress and implementation of 3D vision and recent trends such as SOC’s and event-based imaging will impact the overall landscape in a 5–10-year timeframe.

Information Classification: General

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