2020 HURRICANE SEASON By Amy Thurman Another hurricane season has begun, and all the major forecasting agencies are predicting more activity than average this year. Annual season averages are 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, while the prediction ranges for 2020 are 18 to 22 named storms, 6 to 11 hurricanes, and 3 – 6 major hurricanes. The probability of at least one major hurricane hitting the East Coast this season is 46%. The average probability is 31%. Though as anyone who’s been through a major storm can attest, it only takes one hurricane to make it a bad hurricane season. Looking back over the past five hurricane seasons is interesting. While not a sufficient time span to be considered any sort of scientific model, there are still points of significance. (For the sake of discussion, we’re only looking at 2015 to present.) Looking at the forecasted numbers vs. what actually happened each year shows that actual storms landed at the higher end of the prediction range each year, with the exception of 2019, which exceeded the predicted range. A range of 9-16 named storms were predicted by the three forecasting agencies we follow, yet there were 18 named storms in 2019. Pre-season storms (prior to June 1) aren’t very common, but there has been at least one pre-season storm each of the past five years, and in 2016, the year of TS Hermine and Hurricane Matthew, there were three named storms before the start of the season – Alex, Bonnie and Colin. Three named storms prior to the start of this year’s season does not mean we’re in for a season similar to 2016, but it does bring an eerie sense of déjà vu. 2015 was the last year Georgia saw no hurricane activity at all. In 2016, five named storms passed through or came near the Georgia/Carolina coastal area: Bonnie, Colin, Hermine, Julia and Matthew. Hermine, although only a tropical storm by the time it reached our area and was inland rather than directly over the coastal region of Georgia, did significant damage. It was overshadowed by far greater damage from Hurricane Matthew only a month later. In 2017 Irma was predicted to follow Matthew’s path but tracked further west with each passing day. We still saw significant damage from tropical storm-force winds, rain and flooding in the coastal area. 2018 saw threats from Michael (in Ga.) and Florence (in S.C.), though they skirted around our sections of the coast, they both still did heavy damage in other areas of each state. Dorian was the biggest threat of 2019, after stalling over the Bahamas it tracked along the coasts of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. It sustained hurricane strength throughout, though was far enough offshore in our area that we didn’t see the widespread damage we saw with Matthew. North Carolina was not as lucky. We don’t know what 2020 will hold for our coastal region, but now is the time to start preparing for whatever may come. Here are some tips to get you started. Don’t put it off until a storm has been named – we’ve all seen what last minute runs on the stores can do to the supply chain. Start now, if you haven’t already. The Southern Tides full hurricane guide can be found on our website and downloaded or printed. www.southerntidesmagazine.com/hurricane. All information found herein are suggested guidelines only. 2020 Forecast NOAA CSU
NCSU
Named
13-19
19
Hurricanes
6-10
Major Hurricanes
3-6
2019 Forecast vs. Actual Actual
NOAA
CSU
NCSU
18-22
9-15
14
9
8-11
4-8
4
3-5
2-4
2017 Forecast vs. Actual
Actual
NOAA
CSU
NCSU
Actual
13-16
18
10-16
13
14-18
15
6
5-7
6
5-9
6
7-11
8
2
2-3
3
1-4
2
3-5
2
2016 Forecast vs. Actual
NOAA CSU
NCSU
Actual
NOAA
CSU
NCSU
11-17
13
11-15
17
10-16
12
Hurricanes
5-9
6
4-6
10
4-8
Major Hurricanes
2-4
2
1-3
6
1-4
Named Storms
2018 Forecast vs. Actual
2015 Forecast vs. Actual
Actual
NOAA
15-18
15
6-11
5
8-11
7
2
3-5
4
CSU
NCSU
Actual
7
4-6
11
3-6
3
1-3
4
0-2
1
1
2
Chart Explanations: CSU - Colorado State University's Tropical Weather department; NCSU - North Carolina State University; Major hurricanes = Category 3 or higher. June 2020
Southern Tides Magazine
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