Southern Oregon Business Journal - September 2021

Proudly Serving Benton, Coos, Curry, Deschutes, Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, Klamath, Lane, Lincoln & Linn Counties and Crook, Lake, Harney and Malheur Counties as well. Since 2015

The Journal for Business in Southern Oregon SouthernOregonBusiness.com

UMPQUA BANK’S BUSINESS BAROMETER PAGE 12

September 2021 IS STAGFLATION BACK? PAGE 22

PEOPLE’S BANK OF COMMERCE FOUNDATION GRANTS $150,000 TO ROGUE RETREAT - PAGE 33

Embracing Uncertainty

Sponsored by

Embracing Uncertainty Umpqua Bank published their 2021 business barometer report this month. They titled it “Embracing Uncertainty” and it’s a great recap of how we all feel. I recommend you check it out. The recap is on page 12 and there is a link to the full report.

September marks the 20th anniversary of 9/11. I remember attending a CEO forum that day and struggling to focus on the future of my company while the unreal scenes in New York and Washington DC unfolded in front of us. It de nitely felt like we were entering a period of uncertain times, yet my wife and I have been able to grow not only one company, but several since then. We learned how to be agile, nimble and responsive.

OREGON BUSINESS NEWS

Starting in March of 2020 all of humanity has had to deal with COVID. It made for more uncertain times. We retaught ourselves to be agile and nimble and we grew again.

Then 1 year ago res ripped through Southern Oregon and devastated our communities. The days that followed felt like very uncertain times.

And Now… the Delta variant is here and taking its toll. I recently saw a social media post by a friend that said “Do you know anyone that has died from COVID?”. It was a statement she was making. It was a question about the reality of the severity of it. In my head I answered no.

Every business and every person has been impacted by it, but I didn’t know anyone personally. Two weeks later I lost a dear friend to it. It became very real overnight in my life.

Our emergency rooms are now over capacity and our hospital workers are overwhelmed. Southern Oregon went from “It’s not real” to “It’s very real” seemingly overnight.

It’s easy to feel like we live in very uncertain times. The summer skies are lled with smoke, our hospitals are overwhelmed and we are and more more divided as a country with each passing moment. Long standing businesses are shuttering forever and many are very, very anxious about our future.

Yet, the stock market is booming! Prices are at an all time high for goods and services and people are paying it. The banks are lled with cash.

The smoke is lling our lungs and our hearts are heavy. We feel politically divided about every single topic out there. It feels like the most uncertain times in my life. Yet, I know the res will stop, the smoke will clear, the rains will come, the crops will feed us and companies will continue to launch and the economy will grow.

NW WINE COMPANY ANNOUNCES GROWTH EQUITY INVESTMENT FROM CASPARIAN PARTNERS - PAGE 5 CATCHMARK COMPLETES $100 MILLION SALE OF OREGON TIMBERLANDS TO ROSEBURG RESOURCES CO. - PAGE 8 CHURCHILL MORTGAGE CONTINUES EXPANSION IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH ACQUISITION OF SALEM BASED TEAM CANALES - PAGE 9 POTENTIAL 2021 KICKER CREDIT PAGE 10 POSTAL CONNECTIONS/ISOLD IT® OPENS FRANCHISE’S THIRD BEND LOCATION - PAGE 14

I feel very certain about that.

Jim Jim@SouthernOregonBusiness.com Stag ation is characterized by slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment—or economic stagnation—which is at the same time accompanied by rising prices (i.e. in ation). People’s Bank published a report called “Is Stag ation Back?”. You can nd it on page 22.

Founder Greg Henderson ghenderson703@gmail.com Greg started the Southern Oregon Business Journal in 2015 and retired in 2020.

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A Few Words from Jim

The Southern Oregon Business Journal extends sincere thanks to the following companies for sponsoring the journal. Without their support we could not produce a FREE resource for Southern Oregon businesses.

COVER PHOTO : FIRE & SMOKE

BY PAUL STEELE - PAULSTEELEPHOTO.COM

5350 HWY 66, Ashland, Oregon 97520

www.SouthernOregonBusiness.com A JOURNAL FOR THE ECONOMICALLY CURIOUS, PROFESSIONALLY INSPIRED AND ACUTELY MOTIVATED

September 2021 - Table of Contents

PEOPLE

RECOGNIZED RETAIL VETERAN JOINS DUTCH BROS COFFEE'S BOARD OF DIRECTORS - PAGE 6

UMPQUA BANK'S 2021 BUSINESS BAROMETER: SURGING OPTIMISM AND TRANSFORMATIONAL SHIFTS POSITION MIDDLE MARKET COMPANIES FOR GROWTH AMID CONTINUED DISRUPTION - PAGE 12

ABIGAIL MERCER OF CRESWELL, OREGON IS ONE OF 3 $10,000 STEM SCHOLARSHIP WINNERS PAGE 7

COVID-19 SOUTHERN OREGON HIT HARD IN SECOND WAVE OF COVID-19 - PAGE 11 OREGON COVID-19 UPDATE - 28

SOU UNDERGRAD REACHES FOR THE STARS WITH SUMMER RESEARCH - PAGE 38 FEATURED

SOU SHIFTS FOR FALL TERM TO COMBAT COVID VARIANT - PAGE 39

OREGON CONNECTIONS TELECOMMUNICATIONS CONFERENCE - AN OREGON TRADITION - PAGE 17 IS STAGFLATION BACK? - PAGE 22 PEOPLE’S BANK OF COMMERCE FOUNDATION GRANTS $150,000 TO ROGUE RETREAT - PAGE 33

HOMELESSNESS IS NOT NEW - PAGE 36

BUSINESS NEWS

NW Wine Company Announces Growth Equity Investment from Casparian Partners

By Press Release

Leading Oregon wine producer will increase production capacity while expanding vineyard holdings

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W Wine Company, a leading Oregon wine producer and owner of more than 700 acres of premium Oregon vineyards, announced that Casparian Partners, an Oregonbased agricultural investment company, has made a growth equity investment in the business, designed to increase production capacity while expanding NW Wine’s directly owned vineyard acreage. “The partnership with Casparian was a natural t to help drive future growth,” said Laurent Montalieu, NW Wine founder and CEO. “Their team is locally based, has strong nancial expertise and shares our long-term vision. This investment gives us the exiting opportunity to scale and develop premium properties at an accelerated rate.”

Montalieu, General Manager and COO Robert Moshier and all members of the NW Wine’s management and farming teams are expected to continue in their current roles. NW Wine was founded in 2003 under the guidance of John Niemeyer, Danielle Andrus, Jeff Meader and Laurent Montalieu. “We have grown the business from 10,000 to more than 300,000 cases and from no vineyards to over 700 acres

in production,” stated John Niemeyer. “Now it is time to take NW Wine to the next level. We are excited for the future.” “We have been tremendously impressed with the dynamic business that Laurent and his team have built in NW Wine. They have developed a strong, diversi ed customer base and have cultivated some of the largest premium, sustainably farmed vineyards in Oregon,” said Ian Lombard, a founder of Casparian Partners. “Their vision and execution have made them one of the great Willamette Valley wine businesses and we are excited for the opportunity to work together to grow their business, add additional vineyard land and expand their leadership position in the industry.”

NW Wine Company (NW Wine) is a vertically integrated winery that has established itself as a leader in the custom wine growing space in Oregon’s Willamette Valley, playing a key role in the launch of numerous successful brands. Core to NW Wine’s business model is the development and production of exclusive brands through long-term partnerships with

established retailers. Since 2007, NW Wine has focused on vineyard acquisitions with the addition of the historic Hyland Vineyard, followed by Westmount in 2012, Domaine Loubejac Vineyards in 2013, and Red Hill in 2020. Combined, these acquisitions total more than 700 acres of producing vineyard making NW Wine Co one of the largest vineyard-land owners in Oregon. www.nwwineco.com Casparian Partners, based in McMinnville, Oregon, was formed to acquire and manage wine related assets with a focus on premium vineyard land and a long-term investment horizon. Casparian’s investment partners include individuals and family of ces, anchored

by Lone Rock Resources, a family owned, Oregon based timber business. NW Wine Company represents Casparian’s rst investment and subsequent acquisitions will be primarily focused on premium vineyards that complement NW Wine’s operational activities and long-term strategy.

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BUSINESS NEWS

Recognized retail veteran joins Dutch Bros Coffee's Board of Directors

By Press Release

Ms. Broader has extensive experience as a CEO, general manager, and corporate director, and is widely recognized for global leadership, strategy, execution, and management of iconic retail brands

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utch Bros Inc. ("Dutch Bros Coffee"), a west coast-based drive-thru beverage company focused on making a massive difference one cup at a time, has announced the appointment of Shelley Broader to its Board of Directors. Ms. Broader brings signi cant C-suite leadership experience at multiple multinational brands, including Chico's FAS and Walmart International. In addition to her executive roles, Ms. Broader has more than 13 years of experience as a public board member, serving several organizations including Raymond James Financial, Inc. and Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.

"As Dutch Bros continues to grow, it's critical that we expand the expertise on our board," said Joth Ricci, president and CEO of Dutch Bros Coffee. "Shelley's experience as a senior executive, her depth of knowledge around leading people and teams, and her passion for brands that make a difference will be invaluable to Dutch Bros. We look forward to her contributions."

Ms. Broader has extensive experience as a CEO, general manager, and corporate director, and is widely recognized for global leadership, strategy, execution, and management of iconic retail brands. She has successfully run large domestic and international businesses with accountability for up to $65 billion in revenue. Ms. Broader's CSuite and boardroom experience includes mass retail, apparel, grocery, banking and wealth management.

"Dutch Bros is an exciting, fresh brand that truly resonates with its customers and strives to exceed their expectations," said Broader. "I have a passion for fast growing companies with an energetic, inclusive culture built on customer excellence, product innovation and digital

transformation. I look forward to continuing that work with Dutch Bros."

While serving as CEO of Chico's FAS, INC, CEO and President of Walmart International EMEA, Walmart Canada Corp. and President and COO of Michael's Stores, Ms. Broader helped each organization remain at the forefront of its respective consumer sector.

About Dutch Bros Inc. Dutch Bros is a high growth operator and franchisor of drive-thru shops that focus on serving high QUALITY hand-crafted beverages with unparallelled SPEED and superior SERVICE. Founded in 1992 by brothers Dane and Travis Boersma, Dutch Bros began with a double-head espresso machine and a pushcart in Grants Pass, Oregon. While espresso-based beverages are still at the core of what Dutch Bros does, Dutch Bros now offers a wide variety of unique, customizable cold and hot beverages that delight a broad array of customers. Dutch Bros is more than the products it serves, it is dedicated to making a massive difference in the lives of its employees, customers and communities. The combination of hand-crafted and high-quality beverages, unique drive-thru experience and community-driven, people- rst culture has allowed Dutch Bros to successfully open new shops and continue to share the "Dutch Luv" at more than 470 locations in 11 states as of June 30, 2021.

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Abigail Mercer of Creswell, Oregon is one of 3 $10,000 STEM Scholarship winners.

By Press Release

Navisite Announces Winners of Inaugural 'Next Steminist' Scholarship Program Supporting Young Women in STE Each of the three winners will receive a $10,000 award to use towards their undergraduate STEM educatio

programming to solve problems. The COVID-19 pandemic has inspired Abigayle to help the world prepare for the potential of future infectious outbreaks. "Working with epidemiologists, I would like to analyze patterns in virus mutation and contact spreading to help predict, plan and prepare the world for the next pandemic," says Mercer. "If I can use my STEM degree to make a positive impact, this is how I will do it.”

Sept. 1, 2021

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avisite today announced the three winners of its Navisite's Next Steminist scholarship program. In its inaugural year, the program is designed to help close the gender gap in tech and encourage young women to pursue their dreams in STEM (science, technology, engineering and math).

The three winners are Elizabeth Andraschko of Spring Park, Minnesota; Abigayle Mercer of Creswell, Oregon; and Vithya Srikumar of New York City.

Each winner will receive a $10,000 scholarship towards their undergraduate education.

"We are honored to name the rst-ever winners of Navisite's Next Steminist Scholarship as these young women prepare to further their

education, launch STEM careers and give back to their communities," said Gina Murphy, president and COO of Navisite. "The three winners stood out among the many candidates from across the country. We were impressed with their vision and determination to make a difference with their STEM educations, and we're thrilled to be able to support them."

The winners plan to use their 'Next Steminist' scholarship to pursue careers in STEM elds that will enable them to contribute their talents for the betterment of society and human health.

Abigayle Mercer will attend California Polytechnic State University to pursue her dream career of working in a data science position at a research facility, using math, research and computer

The Navisite Next Steminist program is administered by Navisite customer Scholarship America®, the nation's largest designer and manager of scholarship, tuition assistance and other education support programs for corporations, foundations, associations and individuals.

Navisite is a modern managed cloud service provider that accelerates digital transformation for thousands of growing and established global brands. Through our comprehensive portfolio of enterprise application and cloud services, proven delivery methodologies and global team of highly specialized experts across technologies, platforms and industries, we provide the capabilities and practical guidance customers need to move their businesses forward. Let us partner with you to navigate the now of IT change, lower costs and meet new demands at any point in your journey. To learn more, visit navisite.com—modern IT services for modern IT needs.

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Southern Oregon Business Journal September 2021 | 7 M

EDUCATION

CatchMark Completes $100 Million Sale of Oregon Timberlands to Roseburg Resources Co.

By Press Release

Photo by kindfolk on Unsplash

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atchMark Timber Trust, Inc. (NYSE: CTT) today announced that it had completed the sale of 18,063 acres of prime Oregon timberlands – known as the Bandon property – for $100 million in cash, or approximately $5,536 per acre, to Roseburg Resources Co.

platform and see the greatest opportunity for future growth.

Most of the sale proceeds will be used to pay down existing debt. Our simple strategy remains focused on investing in prime timberlands in the nation's leading mill markets, employing delivered wood sales as well as opportunistic stumpage sales to provide predictable and stable cash ow, help cover our dividend, and create long-term shareholder value."

The property had been purchased in August 2018 for $88.8 million or $4,916 per acre.

The company recognized a gain on the sale of approximately $23 million.

AFM Real Estate acted as CatchMark's broker for the transaction.

CatchMark increased its guidance for full-year net income to a range of $13 to $17 million to re ect the sale but has not made any other adjustments to its full year 2021 guidance.

About CatchMark CatchMark (NYSE: CTT) seeks to deliver consistent and growing per share cash ow from disciplined acquisitions and superior management of prime timberlands located in high demand U.S. mill markets. Concentrating on maximizing cash ows throughout business cycles, the company strategically harvests its high-quality timberlands to produce durable revenue growth and takes advantage of proximate mill markets, which provide a reliable outlet for merchantable inventory.

Headquartered in Atlanta and focused exclusively on timberland ownership and management, CatchMark began operations in 2007 and owns interests in 1.5 million acres* of timberlands located in Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, South Carolina and Texas. For more information, visit www.catchmark.com.

CatchMark had harvested approximately 80% of its targeted full-year 2021 volume for the Bandon property by transaction close.

CatchMark Chief Executive Of cer Brian M. Davis said: "Coming off an exceptionally strong second quarter when we generated record revenues, cash from operations, and Adjusted EBITDA and our second highest quarter of net income, this disposition demonstrates our ability to execute accretive capital recycling transactions and further strengthens CatchMark's capital position. It also allows us to concentrate our activities in the U.S. South where we have a very robust operations

* As of June 30, 2021

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BUSINESS NEWS

About Roseburg Forest Products Founded in 1936, Roseburg Forest Products is a privately-owned company and one of North America's leading producers of particleboard, medium density berboard and thermally fused laminates. Roseburg also manufactures softwood and hardwood plywood, lumber, LVL and I-joists. The company owns and sustainably manages more than 600,000 acres of timberland in Oregon, North Carolina and Virginia, as well as an export wood chip terminal facility in Coos Bay, Ore. Roseburg products are shipped throughout North America and the Paci c Rim. To learn more about the company please visit www.roseburg.com.

About American Forest Management American Forest Management offers a suite of services including land and habitat management, timberland inventory and sales, environmental practices and technical services.

AFM Real Estate, as subsidiary, offers real estate acquisition and disposition services.

Headquartered in Charlotte, N.C., American Forest Management serves clients across the country with 50+ regional of ces and oversees more than 6 million acres of land.

For over fty years, it has been the industry's leading company, coordinating land

BUSINESS NEWS

Churchill Mortgage Continues Expansion in Paci c Northwest with Acquisition of Salem Based Team Canales

By Press Release

Mortgage lender approaches 150 teammates in the rapidly growing PNW region just two years after launc

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hurchill Mortgage, an industry leader providing conventional, FHA, VA and USDA residential mortgages across 48 states, announced today the next chapter of its Paci c Northwest expansion with the acquisition of Team Canales, a team led by three women with over 40 years of collective mortgage experience specializing in personalized home loans for a diverse range of buyers.

The acquisition brings the PNW division's total headcount to nearly 150 teammates, re ecting Churchill's rise as one of the region's fastest growing mortgage lenders.

Team Canales, founded by Katy Canales in 1998, provides conventional, FHA, VA and USDA loans for families hoping to nd the best home that ts their lifestyle. With Canales at the helm as a mortgage loan originator, the team also includes Katy's twin sister, Tricia Parker, as a loan processor, and Courtney Benson, also a loan processor.

With more than four decades of combined industry experience, Team Canales will help expand Churchill's presence in the PNW region, speci cally throughout Oregon in Salem, Portland, Eugene and Corvallis.

"Katy and her team have been deeply rooted in the Salem market for decades and have consistently demonstrated their credentials as industry leaders – not just from being able to help clients close on their mortgages, but by building strong communities through their deep care and compassion for others," said Kevin J. Hanna, President of the Churchill Mortgage Paci c Northwest Region.

"Expanding our PNW footprint provides us with additional repower to positively impact local communities by deploying resources that empower our customers to achieve the ultimate dream of debt-free homeownership. The Canales

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Southern Oregon Business Journal September 2021 | 9

TAXES team is a true embodiment of the Churchill Mortgage culture and values, making them a seamless transition into our family.”

Because buying a home is a huge decision and comes with a lot of stress, the Canales team strives to make the home loan process as easy as possible for buyers by always being available for questions and offering years of experience.

"At Team Canales, we are here to help. We want to help others, every step of the way, achieve their goals of homeownership," said Canales.

"We love what we do and we are thankful to be working with Churchill Mortgage."

Team Canales joins Churchill Mortgage's PNW division at a time of rapid growth as the company recently surpassed $1 billion in annual loan volume just two years after opening its rst branch.

The division launched in 2019 with a single of ce in Portland employing only four team members and has since grown to 24 locations across seven states, with a diverse mix of industry veterans and rising stars that are ingrained in their local communities.

Headquartered in Portland, the division has recently opened branches in several markets across the region, including Astoria, Ore.; Lake Oswego, Ore.; Bend, Ore.; Spokane, Wash.; Tacoma, Wash.; Boise, Idaho; Orem, Utah; and Anchorage, Alaska.

The company offers a debt reduction program for all employees and has partnered with charitable organizations throughout its geographic footprint, including Hunger Fighters, The Oregon Food Bank, Sackcloth & Ashes, With Love, Meg's Moments for Life Jackets, Shepherd's House Ministries and Youth Music Project.

About Churchill Mortgage Founded in 1992, Churchill Mortgage is a privately-owned company by its more than 800

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From Oregon Department of Revenue https://www.oregon.gov/dor/press/ documents/kicker_fact_sheet.pdf

teammates. A full-service and nancially sound leader in the mortgage industry, the company provides conventional, FHA, VA and USDA residential mortgages across 48 states. As heard on personal nance expert and author Dave Ramsey's nationally syndicated radio show, the lender's mission is to help borrowers achieve debt-free homeownership and build wealth through a smarter mortgage plan, regardless of their starting point.

Churchill Mortgage is a wholly owned subsidiary of Churchill Holdings, Inc.

Why is a kicker in the news?

Churchill Mortgage's notable achievements include recognitions as a "National Top Workplace", "Top Lender" by Scotsman Guide: Residential, an eight-time "Top Workplace"

by The Tennessean, one of the "Best Mortgage Companies to Work For" by National Mortgage News and a "Fast 50" company, "Top 100 Private Company" and "Best in Business" by the Nashville Business Journal.

What is the kicker?

The kicker occurs if actual state revenues exceed forecasted revenues by 2 percent or more over the two-year budget cycle.

For more information about Churchill Mortgage, visit churchillmortgage.com or follow the company on LinkedIn, Twitter @ChurchillMtg , Instagram, Pinterest & Facebook.

Potential 2021 Kicker Credit

The Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast released February 24, 2021 indicates Oregon’s actual revenue in 2019‒21 is expected to be better than projected, raising the possibility of an Oregon state surplus income tax credit known as the “kicker” to be claimed on the 2021 tax return that will be led in 2022.

The excess, including the 2 percent trigger amount, is returned to taxpayers through a credit on their following year’s tax return. What happens next? This is a very early stage of the kicker determination process.

The Of ce of Economic Analysis (OEA) publishes quarterly revenue forecasts, and each forecast signals whether there is potential for a kicker and how much it might be. OEA will present another forecast in May 2021, but the nal determination and certi cation will be presented in September 2021.

When would a kicker be available to taxpayers?

If OEA certi es the kicker on or before October 1, 2021, the credit will be claimed on the 2021 tax year return led in 2022.

History of the personal income tax kicker • The 1979 Oregon Legislature passed the 2 percent “kicker” law.

• Prior to 1994, refunds were made via a tax credit as they are now.

• From 1995 until 2011, refunds were made via checks to taxpayers.

• Prior to 2007, the refund amount was based on tax liability for the rst full calendar year of the biennium. The 2007 Oregon Legislature changed the basis of the refund to tax before credits.

COVID-19

By Jim Teece

Southern Oregon Hit Hard in Second Wave of COVID-19

The virus has nally hit close to home. My 49 year old friend, Jeff, died after a 2 week battle with COVID a few weeks ago. Prior to his passing I didn’t really understand it’s power. I am vaccinated, but I was also frustrated by the masks, social distancing and impact on our lives.

He was young, healthy and strong and he left behind a wife and 4 children.

The second wave of the virus is now ooding the hospitals with patients. Asante is one of our regional medical centers here (with hospitals in Medford, Ashland and Grants Pass) and they started publishing this daily chart on Facebook so that we can monitor it. It shows patients under 18, from 18 to 64 and 65 and older by category (Tested Positive, In ICU, on Ventilators and Dead)

Clearly the unvaccinated are lling the hospitals and the new variant is even hitting those under 65 hard as well.

If you feel sick stay home, if you have not been vaccinated, please consider it, wear your mask when in public areas and wash your hands.

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Southern Oregon Business Journal September 2021 | 11

Umpqua Bank's 2021 Business Barometer: Surging Optimism and Transformational Shifts Position Middle Market Companies for Growth Amid Continued Disruption

By Press Release

Middle Market optimism surges +24 points over pre-pandemic levels: more than 70% of companies embrace continued adaptation with "signi cant" changes to strategy and operations anticipate and in greater detail about their larger purpose and value to the marketplace.

This bodes well for the immediate future and will also make them better prepared to adapt to the next disruption.”

Together, small and middle market companies serve as bellwethers for the economy. Middle market businesses alone account for $6 trillion of the U.S. private-sector GDP and provide 44 million jobs.

The strength and resiliency of these businesses are critical to economic well being and recovery.

Key ndings and highlights from Umpqua Bank's fourth annual survey include: "Signi cant Changes" Made in 2020 Represent Transformational Shifts

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mpqua Bank, a subsidiary of Umpqua Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: UMPQ), released its annual 2021 Business Barometer, an in-depth study into the mood, mindset, and strategic priorities of nearly 1,200 leaders at small and middle market companies across the United States. Despite the heavy toll businesses nationwide faced last year, optimism has now surged past pre-pandemic levels, and many companies report being well positioned for growth in the year ahead.

In addition to reporting transformational shifts in operations and strategy over the last year, middle market companies, in particular, are embracing the expectation of continued challenges and the need for ongoing

Not surprisingly, most businesses have made major strategic adjustments in response to the pandemic.

adaptation. And while growth is expected among both small and middle market companies, intense disruptions related to supply chains and competition for workplace talent pose considerable challenges.

"Businesses of all sizes made signi cant changes over the past year in response to the pandemic. As a result of increased ef ciencies and diversi cation, many have emerged more optimistic and poised for growth as the economic recovery continues," said Richard Cabrera, EVP and Head of Middle Market Banking at Umpqua Bank.

Nearly all middle market companies (96%) and most small businesses (65%) say they've made "signi cant changes" to multiple areas, including supply chains, staf ng models, company culture and vision, brick-and-mortar operations, and products and services. These changes, however, re ect more than temporary pivots to survive. According to the report, about half of those surveyed, including 71% of middle market companies, expect to keep most or all of the changes made.

Surging Optimism Paves Way for Growth Positivity around the current state of the economy has roughly doubled since last year, with expectations for overall economic

"Leaders have realized their organizations' capacity to pivot and adapt, and the pandemic has challenged them to think more strategically

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BUSINESS NEWS

A renewed sense of optimism, and most likely delayed plans from 2020, have middle market companies thinking about growth and expansion in the year ahead. More than half (52%) are considering acquiring another business, up from roughly one-third reporting such interest in 2019 and 2020. Another 56% expect to nance expansion plans.

The state of the commercial real estate sector may also be less dire than commonly assumed, as 47% of middle market companies are looking to expand their real estate footprint. That gure is most pronounced within the manufacturing, and nance and insurance industries.

Leaders Embrace a Mindset of Continuous Change & Evolution Despite reporting massive strategic shifts in response to the pandemic a year ago, more changes are coming in a competitive, dynamic post-pandemic economy. Roughly three-quarters or more of middle market businesses expect to continue making signi cant changes to products and services (75%). They also anticipate substantial changes to their pricing models (75%); another 81% are likely to digitize new areas of their business to become more ef cient, while 79% will continue automating repetitive manual tasks.

"Over the past several years, disruptions— whether macro-economic, geopolitical, or technological—have become a constant reality, and none has been more impactful than the pandemic," said Cabrera. "The data mirrors what we see on the ground with our customers— businesses are starting to accept this reality.

While the last year has been dif cult, many businesses have tapped into strategic and

creative energy that's changing their mindset from one of resistance to embracing the need for continual change.”

Despite accelerating optimism and plans for growth, businesses face economic headwinds that will continue to challenge their capabilities and need for strategic support from various partners.

small businesses and 29% of middle market companies) Facing longer delays to receive goods (59%) Experiencing an increase in the price of goods (76%) To read the survey in full, visit www.umpquabank.com/businessbarometer-survey-report.

These include: Survey Methodology Talent Dislocation and Lack of Skilled Workers Most middle market businesses (55%) and 41% of small businesses are having trouble nding quali ed employees.

Companies cite the inability to engage quali ed talent and a shortage of skilled candidates as the top staf ng challenges; respondents from construction, retail and manufacturing businesses are most likely to have trouble nding quali ed employees.

While businesses are offering enhanced incentives, including nding creative ways to support working parents (71% of middle market companies), operating short-handed has a ripple effect across their bottom line and the economy.

Higher labor costs, increased delays with goods and costly workforce inef ciencies are cited as the most signi cant impacts. The inability to pursue new opportunities also ranks exceptionally high for small businesses.

Supply Chain Disruptions As companies are working to adapt and grow to meet increasing consumer demand for goods, many are still feeling the effects of the pandemic on the global supply chain, with 88% of businesses citing dif culty sourcing goods in the past 12 months. The most common supply chain dif culties companies have faced include: Being unable to purchase the goods in a timely manner needed to run their business (23% of

The Umpqua Bank 2021 Business Barometer, conducted annually, surveyed 1,196 owners, executives, and nancial decision-makers from U.S. small and middle market companies. The online survey was conducted in partnership with DHM Research, a public policy and business research rm, and targeted leaders at companies with $500,000 to $500 million in annual revenue. The survey has a 2.8% margin of error and was elded from May 24 – June 4, 2021.

About Umpqua Bank Umpqua Bank, headquartered in Roseburg, Ore., is a subsidiary of Umpqua Holdings Corporation, and has locations across Idaho, Washington, Oregon, California and Nevada. Umpqua Bank has been recognized for its innovative customer experience and banking strategy by national publications including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, BusinessWeek, Fast Company and CNBC. The company has been recognized for eight years in a row on FORTUNE magazine's list of the country's "100 Best Companies to Work For," and was recently named by The Portland Business Journal the Most Admired Financial Services Company in Oregon for the sixteenth consecutive year. In addition to its retail banking presence, Umpqua Bank also owns Financial Paci c Leasing, Inc., a nationally recognized commercial nance company that provides equipment leases to businesses.

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Southern Oregon Business Journal September 2021 | 13 fi

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improvement and business growth accelerating past levels recorded in previous Umpqua middle market research. A majority of middle market (55%) and small (52%) businesses expect economic conditions to improve and for revenue to increase (62% of middle market and 53% of small businesses).

Postal Connections/iSOLD It® Opens Franchise’s Third Bend Location

By Press Release

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ulti-Generational Family Ownership Team Expands Brand’s Presence with New Service Center at Bend River Mall

BEND, OR – Postal Connections/iSOLD It®, one of the nation’s premier providers of retail packaging, shipping, mail receiving

and eBay customer-sales support, announced today the opening of a new service center in Bend at the Bend River Mall, just off the intersection of Bend Parkway and Highway 20 (100 NE Bend River Mall Dr.). The new location, which is the brand’s third in Bend, is on the city’s north side, and joins locations on the east and south sections of the city.

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BUSINESS NEWS

Local resident Lee Kennedy is the owner and operator of the franchise location, his rst Postal Connections/iSOLD It. His wife, Leticia Sanchez, son, Jacob Kennedy, and father, Ken Kennedy, are supporting the family-run business as well.

“I have been impressed by the Postal Connections/iSOLD It model since day one and have witnessed rsthand how our center can provide convenient, time-saving and personalized services that meet the needs of local residents here in my Bend community,” said Kennedy, whose professional background includes relevant work in the local package delivery industry. “Whether you are working from home and need mail, shipping or notarization services or a local business owner needing to send out your products to customers, Postal Connections is a one-stop, trusted shop to meet your needs.”

The new Bend location marks the company’s fourth east of the Cascades in Oregon (BendRedmond), joining ve others west of the range in the state.

Headquartered in Frisco, Texas, Postal Connections/iSOLD It has established itself as a leading franchise and provider of an innovative array of business and personal service centers. It offers access to postal products, FedEx, DHL, and accepts drop off ecommerce returns, along with receiving from all carriers.

“Our stores make life easier for residents and businesses alike. Lee and his family are the perfect team to carry out our operating values,” said Fred Morache, COO of Postal Connections/iSOLD It. “I’m con dent they will thrive in the Bend market where we have fantastic brand awareness. Today’s ecommerce brings us wonderful products at affordable prices, yet people appear to be starved for customized services when tasks are time consuming or they simply want the bene t of having someone else do it.”

Postal Connections/iSOLD It was able to pivot quickly to meet the challenges of the pandemic head on. When nationwide

mandates declared shipping and postal services as essential businesses, the brand met the need of its communities and the nation’s needs as well. Working throughout the pandemic and serving the public as more and more consumers quarantine, and shop and work from home, Postal Connections/iSOLD It has proved its resistance to the recession.

There are 44 Postal Connections/iSOLD It franchise service centers in 21 states across the United States. The retail business model is awarding franchise opportunities to quali ed individuals who share the company’s commitment to owner/operator involvement in the business and who will be dedicated to superior customer service.

REACH

YOUR TARGET

ADS

About Postal Connections/iSOLD It Founded in 1995, Postal Connections is a national franchise chain of postal, shipping and business service stores. C. “Andy” Thompson and Fred Morache, Co-Directors and franchisors, purchased the Postal Connections franchise in 2007 and later bought iSOLD It. Both brands are part of Blue Stamp Franchise Company, Inc. headquartered in Frisco, Texas, and are franchised together in co-branded retail environments. iSOLD It is the largest retail chain offering third party services to help customers sell their items on eBay, Amazon and other specialty ecommerce internet sites. A customized software system and expert experience enables franchisees to successfully sell items at the fastest time and best price.

Thousands of Business People get a chance to see your ad in the monthly Business Journal.

To learn more about Postal Connections/ iSOLD It services, visit www.postalconnections.com. For more information on franchise opportunities, visit www.postalconnections.com/franchiseopportunities/ or call 1-800-POSTALS (767-8257).

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Southern Oregon Business Journal September 2021 | 15

Jonathan Chambers Conexon

Rey Ramsey

Centri Tech

Thank you to our sponsors: Wave Business, Hunter Communications, EnerTribe, Oregon Cable Telecommunications Association, LS Networks, InfoStructure, Zayo, Calix, Ziply Fiber, AT&T, the Oregon Broadband Advisory Council, PEAK Internet, Cascade Poly Pipe+Conduit, Spectrum Business, Structured, GenXsys, Zyxel, Walker & Associates, Lumen Technologies, Dura-Line, Northwest Telecommunications Association (NWTA), Palo Alto Networks, City of Eugene, DAVEY Inc., the Southern Oregon Business Journal, Q-Life Network, Link Oregon, Windwave, Business Oregon, and SOREDI.

16 | Southern Oregon Business Journal February 2021

TELECOMMUNICATIONS

By John Irwin, Keith Mobley, Dave Sabala, Diane Garcia and Chris Tamarin

Oregon Connections Telecommunications Conference An Oregon Tradition

T

he twenty- fth annual Oregon Connections Telecommunications Conference is scheduled to be held at the Ashland Hills Hotel and Suites on October 28 and 29, 2021. The theme for this year is Oregon Connections: Onward! The 2021 conference presenters and attendees will look forward as we begin to move beyond a disruptive pandemic. The Keynote Speakers include Jonathan Chambers of Conexon, a company that works with rural electric cooperatives to bring ber to the home and Gigabit speeds to rural communities, and Rey Ramsey of CentriTech, a company focused on building broadband networks, creating content and creating applications for a social purpose. This year’s conference is hosted by Southern Oregon Regional Economic Development, Inc.

a wide variety of attendees, experts, and pundits to explore the technologies, policies, and future of telecommunication technologies in Oregon. It is a grass roots conference that attracts attendees from industry, government, education, healthcare, and business.

As ful lling as the presentations, exhibits, and discussions are, so is this annual gathering Oregon’s telecom family ful lling. In many ways it is a sort of tribal gathering with all the camaraderie and explorations of new contacts that goes with the many hallway discussions, and yes…dealmaking. It’s a lot of fun, too!

Yet this conference is more than an opportunity to make contacts and to hear from experts presenting and discussing a wide variety of pertinent and timely broadband technologies and policies. Oregon Connections is also where we salute and recognize the many Oregon telecommunications heroes with recognitions in several important categories including applications, projects, regional/local strategies, partnerships, policy, legislation, advocacy and enduring achievement.

The conference has long been viewed as a key forum for Oregon’s statewide broadband community of interest. Here are some re ections on the conference shared by ve of its frequent participants.

Celebrate 25 Years of Oregon Connections!

As an attendee since the early days of Oregon Connections, serving on the planning committee starting in 2003, acting as the emcee from 2004-2015,

The Oregon Connections Telecommunications Conference continues a 25-year history of gathering

and playing the role of conference photographer for many years (over 10,000 memories caught in time!), I have enjoyed an up close and personal relationship with the conference and many of the attendees that come from all over the world. We will show a selection of those photos taken over the years at the conference. Will you see your photo from years past?

Oregon Connections is one of the highlights of my year. From what I’ve heard over the years, it has been a source of information and contacts for many looking to engage in broadband issues. This conference has been the venue at which many seeds were planted that produced new champions, alliances, partnerships and infrastructure making it one of the most important and rewarding events for telecommunications anywhere in the Paci c Northwest.

Come join us at the 25th Oregon Connections conference for the education, discussion, networking and fun!

Onward!!

John Irwin Central Point, OR

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My interest in telecommunications originated in 1962 with the Cuban Missile Crisis. I was a very junior Navy communications of cer aboard the ship carrying the Admiral who would have led the invasion, had that become necessary.

Multiple encrypted message of the highest classi cation and priority had to be prepared and delivered in plain language to the Admiral and his staff.

Reliability and speed were key to saving the world then, and today.

After two years (1992-1994) in Canada’s capitol as a trailing spouse with plenty of time to explore the Internet, I could see the potential of this technology to change the world.

When I returned to law practice in The Dalles area in 1995, I began looking for opportunities to engage my interest and use what I had learned.

As soon as I heard about the telecommunication conference happening in Bend, I signed up. That conference over the years has been the source of most of what I now know about this eld.

Using economic development as the lever, I helped organize and then led a group the Executive Director of the MidColumbia Economic Development District called the Gorge Teleconsortium.

We held meetings throughout the Columbia River Gorge, on both sides of the river. They were attended by others

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A Personal History – Oregon Connections Telecommunications Conference

interested in economic development and by representatives of the regional telecommunications providers.

By 2001 we had generated enough information, interest and advocacy that the City of The Dalles, Wasco County, the Northern Wasco County Public Utility District, and the Port of The Dalles came together to form an intergovernmental agency they named the Quality Life Intergovernmental Agency, or Q-Life Network.

Resistance to the stated goal of a community ber network for The Dalles was strong enough to have the Public Utility District and Port withdraw from the agency. Wasco County and the City of The Dalles continued and were eventually able to complete the ber loop. Almost immediately thereafter, Project 02 materialized and was later revealed to be Google, ready to build its rst data center. They did it, and are now negotiating with the city and county for approvals for a fourth and fth data center, powered by the PUD and all on land formerly owned by the Port.

During that almost 20 years, I served as legal counsel to Q-Life Network, with help from a Washington, D.C. rm associated to provide assistance as needed. My advocacy role continued, and led to further economic development work on behalf of Maupin, through Regional Solutions and some lottery bond funding. Once that was in place, partners and other providers were found to establish a city-owned ber network operated by private providers.

This could not have happened without what was learned by attending the

Oregon Connections Telecommunications Conference.

Keith Mobley Dufur, OR

Oregon Connections recognizes achievements and contributions The Oregon Connections Telecommunications Conference has a wide diversity of attendees. There are educators, politicians, service providers, vendors, health care providers, economic development personnel, rst responders, telecom consultants, students, tribal members, city, county and state government folks and more.

Being from the service provider side, the amount of networking in the hallways, socials and bars receptions for this segment is fun to watch. At our last conference, I saw the initial talks of a purchase of one service provider by another service provider. The deal closed less than one year later.

The conference recognizes achievement and contributions with its annual Oregon Connections Awards. Recognition is given to honor individuals and organizations who have positively impacted telecommunications development in Oregon in broadband applications, projects, partnerships, legislation, and advocacy. The Edwin B. Parker Enduring Achievement Award, is presented to individuals whose contributions in telecommunications have been rendered with the greatest civility, who serve as a role model and mentor to many, and who have provided

Dave Sabala Roseburg, OR

My Oregon Connections Experience

I attended my rst Oregon Connections Telecommunications Conference in October 2011. I was working for a national broadband company. I was immediately hooked by seminars on technologies and applications that I never knew existed. Driverless combines in the elds? Apps to help predict onset of dementia in the early stages? Drones used for evacuating the wounded? Data centers? Crypto currency mining? This was much more than simply selling big internet pipes to hospitals.

Being a little slow to realize things, I didn’t recognize at rst that as exciting as those seminars were, the real value of Oregon Connections happens outside of the sessions in the halls. This is where connections are made and alliances built. Can’t complete a build all the way through to Prineville? Make a contact and see if she will swap ber to mutually bene t our projects. The hallways and the “after-party” events are where you hear what was really going on and what projects might be out for bid soon.

I asked to join the Planning Committee.

Participating in this committee combined with attending the conference worked for me. I met all of our high quality keynote speakers and other important people in our region.

The members of the Planning Committee have also been invaluable resources for other work I’ve had outside of telecommunications.

Those who attend and volunteer for the Connections Conference are deeply concerned about improving our communities, and have their hands in many pies. A lot of change happens through these people. I was asked to participate on a couple of Boards because of my participation in Oregon Connections. Those opportunities would never have been offered otherwise.

So join us as we trudge the path of happy Destiny.

Chris Burns Vancouver, WA

My Experience Meeting new people October 2015 was my rst time attending the Oregon Connections Telecommunications Conference. I had never attended this conference and had no agenda other than meeting old friends I had not seen in years.

The conference turned out to be eye opening. This was not a tradeshow with vendors at the forefront, nor was this a stagnant conference with boring topics

and ineffectual presenters. This conference was a live, interactive platform of ideas and opinions.

People who I followed on Linked In, companies who were making a difference in local communities with broadband services, mayors, state representatives, and grassroots organizations were all in attendance.

This was my rst opportunity to sit down and have lunch with like-minded people who were focused on improving broadband services in their communities. The conversations were open, honest and humorous.

The conference networking receptions, for me, were highlights. In my opinion, it was, and continues to be, the best networking event in the Northwest.

Everyone was warm and welcoming, wanting to make conversation. One always walks away having made at least one new friend.

In addition to meeting new people, I was able to catch up with old friends.

With everyone spread out around the country, this is one of the few regional events where friends and colleagues can connect for a few days. Being held at the end of October, most construction is nished, and the holidays are right around the corner.

Attending conference sessions The main reason that I chose to attend OCTC was to hear from industry experts on the latest technologies. I chose my sessions based on topics, but also based on the people I wanted to hear from.

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a lasting legacy in uencing for years to come the course and future of telecommunications in Oregon. There are 18 individuals that have received this prestigious award over the years with a deserving individual to receive the award at this year’s conference.

Attending sessions allowed me to reconnect with people I’ve met in the past, sparked new ideas for reaching out to my customers, and helped me identify gaps in my thinking or understanding.

Overall Overall, this conference was, and continues to be, a positive, though exhausting experience. I know I have greatly bene ted by attending, and I can’t wait to attend more conferences in the future.

The best reason for anyone to attend Oregon Connections , is to experience the overwhelming positive mood, the passion of conference attendees to increase the quality and access to broadband access and drive to make our communities stronger.

Diane Garcia Eugene, OR

Connecting Oregon The Oregon Connections Telecommunications conference is in its twenty- fth year. It is a conference that was ahead of its time in recognizing the essential nature of state-of-the-art telecommunications infrastructure to Oregon. Over this span of time, the internet has emerged as the global platform for communication, business, government, education, healthcare, energy management, information storage and distribution, public safety and entertainment. It has grown from

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use by less than 1% of the World’s population in 1995, just 26 years ago, when it was commercialized as the World Wide Web, to use by over 50% of the world’s population this year (over 3.8 Billion users).

2020 was an extraordinarily challenging and pivotal year due to the hugely disruptive COVID-19 pandemic. It has impacted every sector of our economy and almost every aspect of our professional and personal lives. Our strategic response to the pandemic has been to rely on telework, telehealth, ecommerce, distance learning, and social media, all forms of telecommunications. The pandemic has been a hyper-accelerator for broadband public policy, applications, adoption, utilization and infrastructure deployment. The forced adoption of telework, telehealth, distance learning, cloud based, network “Tele” applications of all types has been a proof of concept for many organizations, institutions, leaders and policy makers that had previously resisted them. This has further enhanced the importance of this conference.

Over the years, Oregon Connections has focused on many topics and issues demonstrating its relevance and foresight. Themes have included the Network Economy, the New Age of Broadband, the Power of Adoption, the Broadband Ecosystem: Living with the Cloud, the Age of Big Data and the Internet of Things, Mobility, Digital Inclusion, and Smart Communities. In 2021, the conference will examine the impacts of the pandemic on broadband

telecommunications and look forward at developing public policy, broadband funding, emerging 21st century schools, libraries, health care systems, digital homes and workplaces, smart/precision agriculture, and smart transportation systems all enabled by communication and information technologies.

Broadband telecommunications continues to be a work in progress. The pandemic has created a new sense of understanding, urgency and commitment to address the longstanding pre-pandemic challenges of the Digital Divide. The Digital Divide continues to exist in Oregon and may well be contributing to the economic divide that exists between urban and rural areas of our state. The future will be greatly impacted by Oregon’s ability to take advantage of the current funding opportunities and public policy support to realize what Oregon Connections has been advocating for twenty- ve years, equitable statewide access to quality broadband.

Join us.

Chris Tamarin Boring, OR

Oregon Connections: Onward!

October 28 and 29, 2021 Ashland, Oregon

Register online at www.oregonconnections.info

Southern Oregon Business Journal September 2021 | 21

By Rachel Eliot Accountant at People's Bank of Commerce

I

n the early years of the 1970’s the easy-money policies of the American central bank designed to generate full employment resulted in high in ation.

The great in ation began in late 1972 and continued through the early 1980’s. The 1970’s saw some of the highest rates of in ation in recent history, rising to nearly 20% by the end of the decade. The great in ation was

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BANKING

Is Stagflation Back?

blamed on many factors including oil prices, union leaders, and weak economic growth. Many economists point towards monetary policies that nanced budget de cits and the OPEC Oil Embargo of 1973.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) instituted an oil embargo in 1973 creating hyperin ation. In order to neutralize

hyperin ation from the oil embargo, the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates. While this increased the value of savings deposits, the cost of borrowing funds also increased.

Freddie Mac began recording 30-year xed-rate mortgage rates and points in April 1971. Rates in 1971 were in the mid-7% range, and steadily increased to 9.19% by 1974. By 1979 the annual

average 30-year xed mortgage interest rate was 11.19%, with rates hitting a peak annual average of 16.63% in 1981.

The Oil Embargo of 1973 was imposed against the United States in retaliation for the U.S. providing military aid to the Israeli military and to gain leverage in peace negotiations of the 1973 Arab Israeli War. The embargo banned petroleum exports to speci c nations, reduced oil production and contributed to oil barrel costs quadrupling in a short matter of time. During the oil embargo,

in ation adjusted oil prices went from $25.97 per barrel in 1973 to $46.35 per barrel in 1974. The COVID-19 pandemic drastically reduced the demand for oil around the world. The rst quarter of 2020 consumption in the United States averaged 94.4 million barrels per day, a 5.6 million decrease from the prior year.

The price of oil is expected to average $56 per barrel throughout 2021 and increase to an average of $60 per barrel in 2022.

The 1973 Oil Embargo coincided with the Nixon Shock beginning in February

1973, after an unsuccessful devaluation of the U.S. dollar in December of 1971.

Nixon took three actions to create the shock including a 90-day freeze on all wages and prices, a 10% tariff on imports, and removed the United States from the gold standard. The Nixon Shock and Oil Embargo together inevitably became the catalysts for Stag ation of the 1970s.

Stag ation appeared during the 1973-1975 recession, where gross domestic product (GDP) reported ve quarters of negative growth.

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In ation nearly tripled in 1973, rising from 3.6% in January to 8.7% in December, followed by a greater range of 10% to 12% beginning in February 1974 through April 1975. In May 1975 unemployment reached a peak of 9%,

two months after the recession ended.

Between 1971 and 1978 the Federal Reserve attempted to ght stag ation, but only worsened it. The Federal Reserve created a Stop-Go monetary policy by raising the fed funds rate to

ght in ation and then lowering to ght the recession.

Businesses could not adjust prices quickly enough when the Fed lowered rates, which sent in ation up to 13.3% by 1979.

Southern Oregon Business Journal September 2021 | 25

The GDP had a challenging year in 2020 falling and rising more than 25% as the country was shut down then slowly reopened. The rst quarter of 2021 showed GDP growth of 6.4%, with most of the increase caused by government spending. Government spending comprised 31% of GDP during 2020, far higher than the average 20.4% over the last 50 years. In Spring of 2020 the government injected $3 trillion into the economy, $900 billion in December 2020 and another $1.9 trillion in March 2021.

One of the rst uses of price indexes as a measure of in ation was during the American Revolutionary war (1775 – 1783) when the pay of soldiers’ wages was based on a “market basket” of goods which included: 5 bushels of corn, 684/7 pounds of beef, 10 pounds of wool, and 16 pounds of leather. The percentage increase in the price of the market basket would be matched by the same percentage increase in soldiers’ wages to compensate for in ation. Prior to 1978, there was one index used for

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CPI which represented 32% of the U.S. population.

occurred which extensively revised item classi cation.

In 1978 the CPI-U was introduced representing approximately 80% of the U.S. population including selfemployed, professional, managerial, technical workers, unemployed, retirees, and other not in the labor force. The CPI is often referred to as a xed-weight price index, as the weights remain unchanged for relatively long periods.

The 1978 CPI Revision was the fourth comprehensive revision of the CPI since inception in 1919. The revised weights were based on the 1972-1973 survey of consumer expenditures and the 1970 census.

Today, commodity prices are soaring at a pace not seen since the Carter administration, supply shortages are affecting almost every industry, and companies in many sectors are reporting dif culties nding workers.

The annual rate of in ation has more than doubled from 0.3% in January to 0.6% in March of this year. The CPI for April 2021 rose again by 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The April CPI increase was in direct relation to a 10% price hike on used cars and trucks, which is also the highest increase for that market on record. Over the last twelve months the CPI has increased 4.2% before seasonal adjustments, the largest 12-month increase since September 2008 which saw a 4.9% increase.

The CPI weights used in 1978 were divided into seven major expenditure groups – food and beverage, housing, apparel and upkeep, transportation, medical care, entertainment, and other goods and services.

Energy was considered a special index and calculated separately from the seven major expenditures until 1998. In 1998 the sixth comprehensive revision

On Friday, May 7, 2021, Colonial Pipeline, the operator of the largest gasoline pipeline in the U.S., was forced to shut down due to a ransomware attack. The network was compromised when 100 gigabytes of data was taken

Sources: 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages Since 1971. http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/ pmms30.html Graham, K. (2021, April 16). Historical Mortgage Rates From the 1970s to 2021: Averages and Trends for 30-Year Fixed Mortgages. https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/ historicalmortgage-rates-30-year- xed Kramer, L. (2020, October 1). How the Great In ation of the 1970s Happened. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/1970s-greatin ation.asp#:~:text=The%201970s%20saw%20some%20of,in%20turn%20to %20nearly%2020 %25.

Amadeo, K. (2021, March 01). US In ation Rate by Year from 1929 to 2023. How Bad is In ation? Past, Present, Future. https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-in ationrate-history-by-year- and-forecast-3306093#us-in ation-rate-history-and-forecast Oil Embargo, 1973-1974. https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/oilembargo#:~:text=During%20the%201973%20Arab%2DIsraeli,the%20post%2 Dwar%20peace%2 0negotiations.

Kenton, W. (2021, April 21). Nixon Shock. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/ n/nixon- shock.asp Amadeo, K. (2020, October 27). Stag ation and Its Causes. Why Stag ation (Probably) Won’t Reoccur. https://www.thebalance.com/what-isstag ation-3305964 Amadeo, K. (2020, July 30). US GDP by Year Compared to Recessions and Events.

The Strange Ups and Downs of the U.S. Economy Since 1929. https:// www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year- 3305543 Amadeo, K. (2021, April 15). Consumer Price Index and How it Measures In ation. Why you should pay attention to the Core CPI. https:// www.thebalance.com/consumer-price-index-cpi- index-de nition-andcalculation-3305735 Chronology of Consumer Price Index. (2020, April 9). U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/historical-changes.htm Stewart, & Reed. (1999). In ation would have been lower from 1978 to the present if the current methods of calculating the CPI had been in place. Monthly Labor Review, June 1999, 1–11. https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1999/06/ cpimlr.pdf Schmidt. (1987). Comparison of the revised and the old CPI. Monthly Labor Review, November 1987, 1–4. https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1987/11/ art1full.pdf

hostage. The hackers locked data on computers and servers then threatened to leak con dential data to the internet if the ransom was not paid. The Colonial Pipeline is the main source of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel for the East Coast distributing 2.5 million barrels a day from Houston to North Carolina, approximately 45% of all fuel consumed on the East Coast.

With the closure lasting 6 days, shortages and long lines occurred from Virginia to Florida and Alabama, with more than 1,000 gas stations running out of gasoline. After nearly a week of being shut down, the Colonial Pipeline paid the ransom of 75 Bitcoin, nearly $5 million, to the hacking group DarkSide.

Colonial Pipeline was able to recover all stolen data and resumed operations.

While the reasoning for this gas

shortage is completely different than that of 1973 the impact is strikingly similar.

Every aspect of the economy has seen an increase including construction, insurance, housing, airfare, and most noticeably gasoline which rose 9.1% in March. The U.S. has reached two of the three components needed to create Stag ation with high unemployment and in ation on the rise. Low GDP growth is the third component that would signal the economy to be in Stag ation. Some conservative economists are predicting the potential for a rapid rise of in ation throughout the year and low GDP growth which could potentially cause the return of stag ation by the end of 2021.

After Colonial pipeline attack, maneuvers to avert shortages. (2021, May 11). AP News. https://apnews.com/article/europe-government-and-politics-technologybusiness- 938b33938fe3a750367fb1dc2f7ce6e0 Biden’s Economy: In ation Hits Highest Levels Since Great Recession, Soars Past Economists’ Expectations. (2021, May 12). The Daily Wire. https:// www.dailywire.com/news/bidens- economy-in ation-hits-highest-levels-sincegreat-recession-soars-past-economists-expectations Shades Of Jimmy Carter: Gas Lines, In ation, Rising Unemployment Return Under Biden. (2021, May 11). The Daily Wire. https://www.dailywire.com/news/gas-lines-in ation-risingunemployment-return-under-biden Webb, Roy H. and Willemse, Rob, Macroeconomic Price Indexes (1989). FRB Richmond Economic Review, Vol. 75, No. 4, July/August 1989, pp. 22-32, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2125362 Reagan, P. In ation Outpacing Economic Growth, Threatens to Strangle Fledgling Recovery. (2021, April 23). Newsmax Finance. In ation Outpacing Economic Growth, Threatens to Strangle Fledgling Recovery | Newsmax.com.

Biden Says Colonial Pipeline Is Nearing Full Capacity After Hack. (2021, May 14).

The New York Times. Biden Says Colonial Pipeline Is Nearing Full Capacity After Hack - The New York Times (nytimes.com).

In ation Hits a 13-Year High – Is Stag ation Around the Corner? (2021, May 13).

The Western Journal. In ation Hits a 13-Year High - Is Stag ation Around the Corner? (westernjournal.com)

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Southwest Airlines Landing at EUG

By Press Release

The EUG Airport Rescue and Fire Fighting (AARF) team provided a spectacular Tri Color Welcome Salute to Southwest Airlines on Sunday, August 29, 2021.

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naugural festivities commenced on Sunday, August 29th, to welcome Southwest Airlines to the Southern Willamette Valley, including a ceremonial water salute and gifts for passengers on the rst scheduled Southwest ights at the Eugene Airport.

“We’re thrilled to become part of the Southwest Airlines family,” said Cathryn Stephens, A.A.E., Acting Airport Director at the Eugene Airport. “We look forward whole-heartedly to the “Southwest Effect” taking hold in our area, bene ting our local passengers and broader regional community.” The “Southwest Effect” is a

currently driving out of the area to utilize other airports, the addition of Southwest Airlines is anticipated to improve passenger retention at the Eugene Airport. Studies have shown ying local, by reducing highway trips to an airport further away, is a more environmentally sustainable choice.

“Southwest Airlines’ arrival in Eugene brings our low-fare service, unique value, and worldfamous Hospitality to Track Town USA, and gives local travelers who live across Central Oregon faster access to what we offer,” said Adam Decaire, Vice President of Network Planning for Southwest Airlines.

“With nonstop service between the Emerald

Airlines will start service at EUG with daily ights to Las Vegas and twice-daily ights to Oakland, with hopes that nonstop routes will expand to include additional destinations in the future. Multiple community partners were involved in the Southwest Airlines recruitment earlier this year including the Eugene Area Chamber of Commerce, Spring eld Area Chamber of Commerce, Travel Lane County, Onward Eugene, Mead & Hunt, City of Eugene, City of Spring eld, Lane County Government, University of Oregon, Oregon State University, Technology Association of Oregon, Business Oregon, and the

phenomenon in which markets that Southwest Airlines enters enjoy a decrease

City and both Las Vegas and Oakland, the depth of our schedule puts Southern

Governor’s Regional Solutions Of ce. More than 50 private businesses and elected

in average airfares and an increase in passengers. With 41% of local passengers

California, Arizona, Hawaii, and more than 60 cities within faster reach.” Southwest

of cials wrote letters of support, pledging to Fly Local, Fly EUG!

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TRANSPORTATION

Rents Becoming More Unaffordable

By Brad from Stessa www.stessa.com

Supreme Court eviction ruling In a 6-3 decision last week, the Supreme Court ruled that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) didn’t have the authority to impose an eviction moratorium. According to Greg Stohr of Bloomberg, President Biden acknowledged the moratorium, which originated under the previous administration, was on shaky legal ground, however noted it was necessary to protect those facing nancial hardship across the country. According to Stohr, real estate and landlords groups disagreed, believing instead that the moratorium was harming small investors who still had to pay their bills.

In their decision, the Supreme Court noted:

“The moratorium has put the applicants, along with millions of landlords across the country, at risk of irreparable harm by depriving them of rent payments with no guarantee of eventual recovery. Despite the CDC’s determination that landlords should bear a signi cant nancial cost of the pandemic, many landlords have modest means. And preventing them from evicting tenants who breach their leases intrudes on one of the most fundamental elements of property ownership—the right to exclude.”

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HOUSING

Despite being unconstitutional, Housing Wire reports on sources who noted the moratorium was effective, and that President Biden may call on federal agencies to enact their own eviction bans.

The President also asked for Congress to pass legislation for a new national ban.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) issued a statement on the decision:

“No housing provider wants to evict a tenant—it is always a last resort and reserved for the rarest cases. The best solution for all parties is rental assistance, and all energy should go toward its swift distribution.

Nearly $50 billion of aid is now available to cover up to a year-and-a-half of combined back and future rent and utilities for struggling tenants—and every state has started a program to distribute the funds.”

Similarly, the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) commented that:

“We remain focused on efforts to stabilize renters and housing providers through rental assistance. Despite the provision of almost $50 billion in federal rental assistance, a top NMHC priority, some jurisdictions have failed to effectively design and administer their assistance

programs, resulting in an unacceptable delay in the distribution of bene ts.”

But, distributing aid has proven dif cult.

The eviction ban was part of a 2-phase approach by the federal government to help renters. The second part was $46 billion in rental assistance. For the latter, however, the Associated Press reported last week that states and localities have only distributed 11% of the funds, according to the Treasury Department.

What are rents up to?

Two new reports from Zillow shed some light on recent rental data. According to Nicole Bachaud of Zillow, renters are forecasted to continually be costburdened in the coming years. Generally speaking, renters should be below the 30% of rent-to-income threshold to be considered not “housing-cost burdened.”

“By the end of the year, assuming current rent and income growth trends largely hold, Zillow expects that share to rise to 30.2% — above the 30% threshold at which a resident is de ned as “housing-cost burdened,” at risk of not having enough income left over each month to adequately afford other life costs beyond housing. That 30% threshold is not just an arbitrary

number, either — previous Zillow research found that once a community’s median rent affordability gure exceeded 32%, local rates of homelessness and housing insecurity should also be expected to begin rising precipitously.”

In a second report, Zillow found that the fast-appreciating rents increased above what the pre-pandemic trends suggested.

This can be considered an effect of the strong rental market recovery, but also places more spotlight on affordable housing.

“Rents rst surpassed their pre-pandemic trajectory in June, recovering from a difference of -3% (-$55) at its lowest point last September. The stalled rental market from last spring through this past winter stood in sharp contrast to the still-strong for-sale market, but recent months of

Source: Nicole Bachaud and Alexandra Lee. "Rent Prices Soar Beyond Pre-Pandemic Projections (July 2021 Market Report)," Zillow, Aug. 19, 2021.

intense rental demand has caused rent growth to accelerate.” Nicole Bachaud and Alexandra Lee. "Rent Prices Soar Beyond Pre-Pandemic Projections (July 2021 Market Report)," Zillow, Aug. 19, 2021.

In commenting on recent Realtor.com data, Paul Bergeron of Globe St reports that buying a starter home costs less per

month than renting a similar-sized unit in almost half of the largest U.S. metropolitan areas.

And, it’s not just residential rents that are rising. According to reports, industrial rents are increasing at record levels, and so too are self-storage rents.

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Southern Oregon Business Journal September 2021 | 31

Source: Nicole Bachaud. "The Typical U.S. Renter is Expected to be 'Housing Cost Burdened' By the End of 2021," Zillow, Aug. 12, 2021.

Better Together People’s Bank and Willamette Community Bank have merged to become a new, combined organization.

We are excited to work with like-minded partners to extend our services to customers and businesses in the northern Willamette Valley, providing banking services that are truly in touch with the needs of our local residents.

Because together, we’re better.

People’s Bank of Commerce Foundation Grants $150,000 To Rogue Retreat

Press Release Matthew Vorderstrasse Development Director www.RogueRetreat.org

the greater community. We are honored to partner with People’s Bank of Commerce Foundation to remodel ve rooms which will serve our community for many years to come.” states Chad McComas, Rogue Retreat Executive Director

The People’s Bank of Commerce Foundation has awarded a grant in the amount of $150,000 to Rogue Retreat for the renovation of ve rooms at the Redwood Inn. The ve newly renovated studio apartments will be used with the rst and primary goal of helping people displaced by the Almeda and other wild res in Southern Oregon. When those displaced from the res are permanently re-homed, the motel and its suites will then be integrated within Rogue Retreat’s continuum of properties to house the general and unrestricted population of homeless individuals, couples, and families in Southern Oregon.

The current mission of the People’s Bank of Commerce Foundation is to assist those who have been impacted by the Almeda Fire that swept through Southern Oregon on September 8th, 2020. The foundation has granted these funds to Rogue Retreat for use in the Redwood Inn renovation. The Redwood Inn was purchased through Project Turnkey, a state grant through the Oregon Community Foundation that purchased distressed hotels for use as re

and COVID-19 relief across the state. The funds from the grant were used to purchase the Redwood Inn which was awarded to Rogue Retreat and the City of Medford on a joint application.

The Redwood Inn is a 47 room motel that is currently undergoing renovations that will offer 47 studio apartments. When completed, 43 apartments will be dedicated to housing individuals, couples, and families displaced due to the Almeda Fire with four studio apartments provided for those who need skilled nursing care.

Renovations are currently underway with 18 suites currently in use and another 14 suites under construction. Once all residents displaced by the res are permanently housed, The Redwood Inn will operate as transitional housing for Rogue Retreat program participants who are moving forward toward sustainable housing of their own.

“We can’t thank People’s Bank enough for their amazing generosity. Their desire to help the Rogue Valley rebuild from these res shows what a business can do to help

“People’s Bank of Commerce Foundation is very pleased to partner with such an exceptional organization in providing relief for the re survivors. These 43 apartments will make a signi cant impact in the ability of those future tenants to continue to recover from the re and rebuild their lives, right here in the Rogue Valley.” remarks Julia Beattie, Committee Chair of People’s Bank of Commerce Foundation.

Rogue Retreat meets homeless people as they are (many with addiction and/or mental health challenges) and provides creative and temporary housing for them: a place to call home. With community partners and Rogue Retreat’s Community Support Specialists, Rogue Retreat collectively wraps itself around program participants delivering supportive services to help them achieve their highest potential.

Rogue Retreat is committed to equity, diversity, and inclusion. To Rogue Retreat, equity means creating conditions that enable everyone to reach their full potential. Rogue Retreat is a 501 (c) 3 charitable nonpro t, incorporated in Oregon.

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Southern Oregon Business Journal September 2021 | 33 fi

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COMMUNITY BANKING & HOUSING

Welcome to Umpqua BroadBand!

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Rural homes, farms, ranches and businesses now have an option. We have towers strategically located all over the Umpqua Valley. We have hundreds of happy customers that have made the switch to Umpqua Broadband™, replacing their slow DSL or Exede wireless service. umpquabroadband.com 845 SE Mosher Ave, Roseburg, OR 97470 (541) 672-3793 customercare@umpquabroadband.com

34 | Southern Oregon Business Journal September 2021

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Southern Oregon Business Journal March 2021 | 35

I

ndifference is the ultimate cruelty dealt another human being. Worse than being beaten, spoken to harshly, or looked upon with disgust, indifference is being treated as though you don’t exist at all. You might as well be another gray pebble in the sidewalk beneath the pedestrians feet, unnoticed and irrelevant.

Poor safety regulation caused a lot of physical disability and death. Those disabled and widows, many with dependent children had no means to provide for themselves and nowhere to turn. The 1850s brought the rst documented cases of homeless youth, many of whom were kicked out of their homes because their providers could no longer afford to raise them.

The ubiquitous blue tarps of homeless encampments especially in larger cities and towns is a lightening strike to the ammable moods of homeowners who see their neighborhoods deteriorating. It’s a helpless feeling learning that corrective actions cannot be taken quickly. Pollution and vagrancy laws seem to be unenforceable. The rights of the violators seem to be greater than the rights of the homeowners. That can be in ammatory.

The Civil War was the rst war where the newly discovered painkiller morphine was used. Now people with amputated limbs could survive.

Opiate addiction became rampant with 100s of thousands of war veterans addicted. From the 1870s until the 1890s one could purchase morphine and heroin with syringes from Sears and Roebucks catalogues.”

The History of Homelessness in America 1640s to present By: Robert Fischer, Plymouth Congregational Church

The rst problem is that it isn’t just one problem. It’s many.

When dignity is the last thing you have and homelessness takes that away, all that may remain is helplessness.

Today’s dilemma Current research and history tell us that homelessness is not a problem with a single cause – it has a variety of causes, some requiring more time, money and expertise than others for a resolution.

Ranging from poverty and under-education

“The Industrial Revolution starting in the 1820s-‘30s people began migrating from the farm to the city in search of jobs. Philadelphia and New York had many people walking the

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Homelessness is Not New

streets causing the country’s rst panhandling ordinances. City jails became de facto shelter systems.

City councils have tireless attendees demanding action on the “Homelessness issue”. ... a majority vote of the counselors, an of cial sounding document, and the stroke of a pen will solve the crisis. It won’t.

Never has.

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by Greg Henderson

and illiteracy, to severe illness and addiction it is very complicated.

Politics and impatient public demand are in the habit of getting in the way of identifying and xing the challenge(s).

Unintended consequences are inevitable when addressing such large-scale problems in a hurried, poorly planned way.

Political motives and constituent demand can paralyze otherwise well-orchestrated efforts. Patience is often the hardest thing to sell.

Despite the cries of well-intentioned advocates there is more to the issue of homelessness than housing affordability and family wage jobs. “...we need to treat the humanitarian crisis of unsheltered homelessness like the emergency that it is.”

- Sharon Meieran, emergency physician and Multnomah County commissioner.

Greg Henderson is the retired founder of the Southern Oregon Business Journal. A University of Oregon graduate and a six year U.S. Air Force veteran, he spent nearly 30 years in banking and nance. His articles have appeared in dozens of publications concentrating on some 20 industry sectors. Contact him at ghenderson703@gmail.com

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Southern Oregon Business Journal September 2021 | 37

EDUCATION From SOU news https://news.sou.edu/2021/07/sou-undergrad-reaches-stars-with-summer-researchnasa/

T

hink SOU senior-to-be Jack Diab was excited when his application was accepted for an internship this summer at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena? “I was over the moon (pun intended),” said the chemistry major from Ashland.

Diab – who has a longstanding interest in all things NASA – lled out the JPL application along with several from other agencies and organizations. He got the one he wanted, and will spend the summer working in the JPL’s Planetary Interiors and Geophysics Division, focused on icy ocean worlds such as Ceres, Enceladus and Europa.

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SOU undergrad reaches for the stars with summer research

“It was really exciting to see that my hard work was recognized by JPL and that I could help out with real NASA research,” said Diab, whose internship is intended to help understand the makeup of a subsurface ocean on Ceres, a dwarf planet and largest object in the asteroid belt.

“I will also be working on many side projects related to ocean worlds and their chemistry,” he said. “My work will involve a lot of thermodynamic modeling and other computational work.”

Diab’s focus at SOU has been on organic chemistry, and he served as a mentor over the past year to help teach the subject. He

learned about thermodynamics in his physical chemistry courses, and how to use the computer programing language Python to model various problems.

“These classes – and the thorough and excellent teaching of these subjects by my professors – has really prepared me for this internship,” Diab said.

The admiration is mutual, according to Greg Smith, an assistant professor of physical chemistry at SOU and a key faculty member and advisor for Diab. Smith taught some of the general chemistry courses that Diab took as a freshman, and the “Computational Methods for Scientists” course where Diab

learned Python and the basics of computer modeling.

“Jack brings an inquisitiveness and tenacity to his work in the classroom and the laboratory,” Smith said. “He loves to explore the connections between the theoretical and the practical aspects of science. He did great work all year and I’m looking forward to working with him on his capstone research next year.”

Diab said it was the smallness of the university and opportunities to do meaningful research as an undergraduate – including hands-on work with Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) equipment – that attracted him to SOU and the Chemistry Department. Smith said that’s all by design – the department has a two-year capstone sequence that includes a total of six scienti c presentations and a comprehensive research project in the program’s second year.

It’s an academic atmosphere that encourages real-world learning and research, and high achievement.

Chemistry Department Chair Hala Schepmann said there are close to a dozen undergrads and recent graduates from SOU’s STEM Division who are currently on prestigious research assignments. For instance, junior biochemistry major Maya Helms – another organic chemistry mentor – is continuing her ongoing research this summer at the Naval Research Laboratory in Washington, D.C. And an alumna of SOU’s STEM Division recently graduated from medical school at the Oregon Health and Science University and was accepted into a seven-year surgical residency at Stanford University.

SOU’s Chemistry Department is expanding its undergraduate research opportunities this summer with the ChemREx Fellowship Program, in which professor Anna Oliveri is mentoring two students in their research projects. The new program was made

possible by generous donations from the McIntyre and Hatton families.

“It is always tough to participate in research as an undergrad, but the Chemistry Department has a really nice system of setting all of us up with a research mentor for our capstone so that we can do real research,” Diab said.

He is on track to graduate next summer, and is eying graduate programs in chemistry, computational chemistry and related elds.

Diab’s experiences this summer at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory will likely broaden the options for the next phase of his academic journey.

“Graduate school for chemistry relies heavily on research, making any experience I can get now very valuable,” he said. “Not only will this internship give me excellent research experience, but I will expand my horizons on the applications of chemistry, make connections to JPL scientists in elds I am interested in, and learn new techniques and skills that will help me in future research.”

Smith, his capstone advisor, expects Diab to work from his solid research foundation to build a successful academic experience and a career in science.

“Jack has the natural curiosity and work ethic to succeed in many scienti c elds,” Smith said.

“He’s gaining invaluable experience in this internship and I’m sure he’ll have many options available after graduation. Whatever path he ultimately decides on, I think he’ll do great work.”

EDUCATION From SOU news https://news.sou.edu/2021/08/sou-shiftsfall-term-combat-covid-variant/

SOU shifts for fall term to combat COVID variant SOU President Linda Schott announced in a webinar with employees last week and in subsequent messages to students and employees that the university has changed course due to an ongoing surge of the COVID-19 delta variant and most classes will now be conducted remotely for at least the rst few weeks of fall term.

“We will begin fall term with primarily remote classes and plan to return to a largely in-person experience on Oct. 11 or soon thereafter,” the president said in her message to employees.

“This change in direction was made after consulting with local and state health of cials, and an epidemiologist at OHSU. They all asked us to avoid the potential for further strain on our area’s healthcare systems, which may happen if we brought students and employees back to classrooms and buildings without strict controls in place.”

The delta variant has pushed regional hospitals to their limits – their combined ICU load was at 94 percent of capacity as of last week, and the surge of COVID patients was interfering with their ability to provide more routine medical care.

COVID-19 vaccination will be required for employees who must work on campus to ful ll their job responsibilities or who wish to participate in in-person activities.

Students who are vaccinated will be eligible for in-person classes after SOU shifts back to inperson operations; those who are unvaccinated but have exemptions or accommodations approved through the Dean of Students Of ce may also attend in-person, but with restrictions that could include testing, social distancing or face coverings.

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Leadership Begins at Southern Oregon University.

“SOU encourages leadership that starts with being inclusive.

Diverse people and ways of thinking create and nurture innovative leadership.”

Precious Yamaguchi, PhD Associate Professor, Communication

sou.edu

• 855-470-3377

40 | Southern Oregon Business Journal March 2020

Southern Oregon Business Journa 5350 HWY 66, Ashland, OR. 97520 www.southernoregonbusiness.com

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