Southern Oregon Business Journal - June 2020

Proudly Serving Benton, Coos, Curry, Deschutes, Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, Klamath, Lane, Lincoln & Linn Counties and Crook, Lake, Harney and Malheur Counties as well. Since 2015

June 2020

Greg Henderson is Retiring‌

The Journal for Business in Southern Oregon

SouthernOregonBusiness.com

A Few Words from Greg In another month I will no longer be an owner of the Southern Oregon Business Journal. That doesn’t mean articles or commentary won’t be included in future issues.

Jim Teece has expressed an interest in keeping space available for comments from the Founder. That is me. Thanks to him there will be no sudden disappearing act.

Thanks is owed to many, many people for their contributions over the last five years. It is impossible to reach everyone as they deserve a personal thank you.

Please forgive me for not mentioning you by name.

In a list of hundreds there is only one at the top. Dede. My rock of over fifty years who knows me better by far than anyone else on earth. She can set a spark under me to get me going as easily as she calms me when stress over meeting self-imposed deadlines threaten my mental or physical wellbeing.

She jumped in when it was obvious to her that taking on design and layout was more than I could handle at the end of the month. She spent two consecutive, 17-hour days one month ensuring the publication got out on time – an obsession of mine regarding deadline promises. She also provides a pat on the back to me when something has been done well. (She also knows not to praise me for anything I know is mediocre – a pet peeve of mine is receiving undeserved praise.) It could be that I have a jerk-gene that is a grouch.

I can be the easiest person to get along with you’ve ever known. I can also be an absolute bear. She knows how to respond either way. Maybe its astrology and my Gemini connection?

Missing the activities and interactions with writers, authors, public leaders, professional organizations, advertisers, consultants, there is a lot to miss, and I will miss it all.

My membership and involvement in the Chamber of Commerce and the Small Business Development Centers will continue. I look forward to attending luncheons in communities around the southern two-thirds of the state to maintain a finger on the pulse of what’s going on in our communities.

That doesn’t mean I won’t take time off with Dede to do some recreational traveling, we already have invitations from dear friends to stop in if we’re in their neighborhood.

If we can do our part in reopening businesses while also getting COVID19 under control, we certainly will. Dede made face masks and reminds me to use hand sanitizer…

Let’s stay in touch.

Greg Ghenderson703@gmail.com 2 | Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020

A Few Words from Jim This is Greg's last issue. He is retiring and we are focusing a good portion on this month's journal on what he created. I'll miss working with him, but I completely understand and appreciate why he decided to retire earlier than we planned. It's just time. He wants to travel and the pressure of a monthly publication deadline is very stressful.

Trust me, there are many days during the pandemic stress that I thought about retiring myself.

I'm committed to continuing the work he started and I hope I don't let him down as he keeps an eye on the journal while traveling with his wife Dede.

This might also be the last print edition. At least for a while.

I haven’t decided yet.

Since Greg and I upgraded the website and we keep it up to date with relevant news and info daily, our readership has skyrocketed.

We have about 1,000 x 1 readers on the website versus in print.

It makes sense to focus on digital and not print, but I don't agree with Dr. Peter Venkmans proclamation that "Print is Dead".

I think there is a place for print and I need to find it.

There is something special about holding the physical copy of the journal in your hands and flipping through the pages, at least for me.

Let me know your thoughts.

Jim Jim@SouthernOregonBusiness.com

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A JOURNAL FOR THE ECONOMICALLY CURIOUS, PROFESSIONALLY INSPIRED AND ACUTELY MOTIVATED

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541-315-6127

June 2020 - Table of Contents

Find the latest news on SouthernOregonBusiness.com

Inside This Issue

Postcards from the edges: Density is not Destiny - Page 20 Who Are the COVID-19 Unemployed in Oregon? - Page 22 Kansas City's Fateful Suburban Experiment - Page 28 Jackson County, Oregon Real Estate Inventory - Page 33 US Housing - Page 34 Oregon’s 2019 Natural Population Increase Was the Lowest on Record - Page 37

Special Section Greg Henderson is Retiring - Page 4 Covers of the Journal - Page 5 Looking Back and Looking Forward - Page 8 Dede Henderson Photos of Greg’s Life - Page 10 Dad - Page 13 Mark Henderson Sometimes I sits and think.

Sometimes I just sits. - Page 14 Greg Henderson Dad - Page 17 Kara Henderson Congratulations - Page 18 Friends

Proudly Serving Benton, Coos, Curry, Deschutes, Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, Klamath, Lane, Lincoln & Linn Counties and Crook, Lake, Harney and Malheur Counties as well. Since 2015

June 2020

Greg Henderson is Retiring…

The Journal for Business in Southern Oregon

SouthernOregonBusiness.com

Cover photo by Jim Teece.

The Southern Oregon Business Journal extends sincere thanks to the following companies for their continued presence as important cogs in the wheels of industry in southern Oregon.

GREG

By Jim Teece, Co-Publisher Southern Oregon Business Journal

I

t’s official. Greg is retiring, for real this time. He told me in the middle of the Pandemic. We just started working together on the reboot of the journal in June of 2019. Our first issue together was out in July and we upgraded the website as well around the same time.

I thought we had 5 years together to see where we could take the journal, but after the initial shock of his announcement had worn off I reached out to him and asked if we could honor him and his working life in what would be our last issue together. He gave it his

4 | Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020

Greg Henderson is Retiring…

For Real This Time

Image credit : Jim Teece Selfie - Greg hates Selfies

blessing and I started reaching out to his family and circle of friends to see if they had any thing they wanted to say in this issue.

Greg embodies the entrepreneurial spirit. He is tenacious, crazy and driven.

He was also only 66 years old when he started the journal.

That is what I love about his story. He had the idea and courage to just do it. So many people fail, because they never actually get started.

Throughout this section we will hear from Greg, his family and his friends.

There are photos of his life and an impressive history of the covers of the journal. I know how much work it is to put one out and Greg put 4 years of them out before me.

I’ll miss working with him and I let him know that he’s welcome anytime to post a story about his travels and all the interesting small business people he will meet along the way.

Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020 | 5

6 | Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020

The first issue : August 2015

The original brochure.

The amazing thing is that we still use much of this content to explain what the Southern Oregon Business Journal is and what it covers and who it is for.

The amount of territory we cover is larger now.

Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020 | 7

GREG

BY DEDE HENDERSON

Looking Back and Looking Forward

Greg and Dede at Opal Creek Photo: Dede Henderson

L

ooking back on 51 plus years of memories with Greg is a challenge.

There have been so many adventures, so much laughter and a few tears along the way.

Greg and I met in college in September of 1968 and were married in September of 1969. Being normal young adults, we thought we knew everything and were ready to conquer the world. To some

8 | Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020

people I suppose we missed our mark, but to us we have achieved a lifetime of great memories along the way.

In June of 1971 our son Mark was born.

We thought it was perfect timing since Greg was supposed to graduate that same month from the University of Oregon. As it turned out there was a mix-up when his credit hours were

counted and he ended up 3 shy. That degree had to wait!

Greg joined the Air Force in 1973 and headed off to Basic Training and Tech school. The first assignment from training was in Dayton, Ohio where our daughter Kara was born in 1975. The degree was still on hold!

When Mark was almost 4, and Kara 2 months old, Greg’s next assignment took him on a remote assignment to Alaska for

our choice, but we made the best of it. As it turned out that would be Greg’s swan song with the Air Force.

Since leaving the service we have lived in Lowell OR, Tigard and Tualatin OR and have lived in Sutherlin, OR since 2008.

We have settled down from moving around and have put our energy into enjoying as much of the country and Canada as we can. We love to hike, spend time with our kids and keep up with that granddaughter of ours.

She was born in December of 1995 and has been a light in our lives. Before graduating from Arizona State she was involved in dance, acting and mostly softball. We always enjoyed attending her dance competitions and The kids & granddaughter 2018 Photo: Dede Henderson following her through her a year. From there he was assigned to softball career right through college.

Woomera, South Australia where we lived Through all this Greg had been busy in for two years, While there Greg made an the finance field, always with the dream arrangement with the Geography of publishing a business journal. For the Department of the U of O and did a last 5 years he has been creating, evolving geophysical study of South Australia and and publishing the Southern Oregon finally received his degree. Missions Business Journal. It has been a journey accomplished! Also, living in a remote that he has enjoyed and will miss. government village was a whole adventure itself. We were on the edge of It may be time for his publishing journey the Australian outback. Lots of heat, to end, but there are many more travels donga, sand and flies! and adventures in our future!

From there we were to be given our “base of choice”. We ended up at McGuire Air Force Base in New Jersey. Definitely not

REACH

YOUR TARGET THROUGH

ADS 17,000+ Business People get a chance to see your ad in the monthly Business Journal.

Send your ad copy to: Greg@SouthernOregonBusiness.com Greg Henderson, Co-Publisher

541-315-6127

Dede Aka: Greg’s Wife

Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020 | 9

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10 | Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020

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GREG

By Mark Henderson

T

here was in our recent history a time when leadership was defined by a person’s willingness to work with others to solve our country’s challenges. When compromise and dialogue were considered strengths and not weaknesses—and when a community and its leaders were measured by their accomplishments, not their stridence.

Key to this ideal was thought, a willingness to consider the perspective of others, and the humility to recognize that others may know something you don’t.

My Dad has always valued this kind of ideal, and he has practiced it every day of

Dad

my life. I believe that it is this spirit, combined with a passion for bridging communities and a patriot’s desire to help, that led Dad to start this Journal. In its pages you have found differing opinions, a lot of data, and many, many ideas for how to improve communities large and small. What started as a bit of a passion project has grown into something more, something I hope readers have found meaningful. I know it meant a lot to Dad to be able to meet people throughout Southern Oregon and provide something that he hoped help add to the conversation about how to make its communities stronger.

I am very impressed by what Dad, with a lot of help from my Mom, too, built over these past few years. Starting with no knowledge of publishing and creating something with this depth is no small feat. And I’m very proud of what they accomplished. What’s more, I’m proud to say they’re my parents.

So, congratulations on what you’ve done, Dad. Since I know you’re not the “retiring” type, it’ll be fun to talk to you about the next several things you dive into. I can’t wait.

Mark

Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020 | 13

GREG

By Greg Henderson, Founder Southern Oregon Business Journal

2015-2020 SOBJ

T

he missing date of publication was an oversight, not since repeated.

The first issue of the Southern Oregon Business Journal was released in July 2015. Article topics included information about Oregon’s connection to the “Timber Belt”, mention of leadership responsibilities to “Delegate”, “Desalination”, “American Education”, 14 | Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020

Sometimes I sits and think.

Sometimes I just sits.

and “Healthcare Finances”. It was a nervous start with concern that it would not be accepted by the three dozen friends and colleagues who were the test subjects of this elevenmonth effort. Today, I believe they were far too kind in their praise for what they received. Some suggested minor changes but all were happy that finally there was a business journal for and about southern Oregon. Their encouragement provided the impetus to become

official. On August 10, 2015 the Southern Oregon Business Journal LLC was listed with the Secretary of State as a legal entity.

To be introduced as the owner, president, or publisher of the Southern Oregon Business Journal became my tag. With it came a responsibility that was expected and accepted. Relevance, accuracy, honesty, integrity, fairness, timeliness, in support of business of all sizes, all were included in the

promise to be as good as possible.

The object was to be current in the subject matter, as unbiased as possible and to deliver a product written at a higher level than readers might find in other publications.

On October 1, 2015, evolution of the journal began almost immediately.

On that morning a heavily armed shooter entered the campus of Umpqua Community College killing nine students and faculty and wounding eleven others. The shock sent waves across America. As a member of the UCC Foundation Board, my duties through the journal connection took on a much higher level of responsibility, a difficult welcome to the world of journalism.

It takes personal involvement to successfully lead any business; the Southern Oregon Business Journal is no different. On the horrific day of the shootings the journal and I became inseparable. People must have thought I spoke of nothing else. Mostly, they were right.

Eighteen-hour days became the norm. I asked everyone how to make it better. All knew the mindset. There is no such thing as perfect, and good is not good enough. My habit was to be tough on everyone in what they contributed, but I was toughest on myself in every aspect of the creation.

At the age of 66 some were surprised at my decision to start the business journal. It quickly grew to shear delight, making me say that it should have been my primary career in the first place. The varied experiences of life since high school have been great contributors to the development and distribution of articles that have come from dozens of sources. The excitement of learning invokes a desire to learn more which can lead to unexpected meetings with authorities whose education and willingness to share expands the breadth and depth of quite interesting subjects.

But, carrying on with that would be boring. All of my successes should be credited to someone not me. My failures belong to me.

People I’ve had the pleasure (usually) of meeting have helped to set a rather high bar in knowledge, leadership, business achievement, and life in general. There is football hall of famer and Heisman Trophy winner Roger Staubach, a true gentleman and intelligent man.

Having coffee at the kitchen table of Oregon Attorney General David Frohnmayer was a grand honor; besides, he endorsed me in a campaign to be an Oregon legislator. A conversation with Zig Ziglar, one of the top motivational speakers of the 20th Century led me

to take my communication skills in public speaking to a higher level.

Having dinner with Frank Abagnale, Jr. was a thrill – he being the subject of the book and movie “Catch Me if You Can” was allegedly the most successful bank robber in American history. To hear the smooth, convincing, and likeable deception expert talk of his experiences forced me to be cautious in what or why I may be led to believe a certain thing. Standing around a campfire in a meeting with General Chuck Yeager was another thing, he the first to fly faster than the speed of sound. Perhaps the most selfconfident person I’ve ever met, he had no fear of dying in his quest to do things unimaginable. Some say he inspired the movie starring Tom Cruise, “Top Gun”.

My advice to everyone is to take the opportunity to meet these types of people. You will grow from it in ways you won’t realize at the time of meeting.

The Southern Oregon Business Journal developed from a single county publication in Douglas county to five in the first three months. Scalability was necessary and logical. It didn’t take long to advance the sphere of our reach to include the southern Oregon coast, south central Oregon and south eastern Oregon. Now, in 2020 the Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020 | 15

Continued from page 15

15 counties served are geographically two-thirds of the state where 1.5 million people call home.

Years of banking and finance helped to develop an appreciation for business planning and financial awareness. By working with the Small Business Development Center in Roseburg we were able to understand better the processes and need for creating our own business plan. The diversity of industry sectors in the articles published each month helped to improve dramatically in Search Engine Optimization, or SEO. That means we can be found on the first page of an internet search provided continuous effort is put into this KPI (Key Performance Indicator).

In these five years sixty issues of the business journal have been produced containing nearly 1,000 articles about events or experiences of seventeen industry sectors.

Constraints of time and space forced several dozen articles to be left out of publications that were of quality and value. Lessons learned along the way encourage consideration of making the articles more restrictive, a bad idea in most instances, or to expand the capacity of the journal.

The choice to expand the content of our digital information, foregoing

16 | Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020

much of the print content, modernized it in obvious ways.

From the beginning advice has been on the table to be digital only, leaving behind a disappearing print relic that is too expensive and too inconvenient in the cyber world of the 21st century. I like holding the journal in my hand. There’s a comfortable and non-invasive feeling about it.

No plan was made to exit my focused involvement in the journal unless an international crisis happened. The fact that the health and economy of the world is in the throes of COVID19 is circumstantial to my reduced participation in the production of the monthly issues.

Jim Teece and I began a conversation about his participation in the publication over a year ago. By July of 2019 he became half owner of it. His long-term business activities and service on boards of directors and in the technology services industry made his inclusion a safe bet. He has added greatly to many aspects of this journalistic effort.

Effective June 30, 2020 I will bring to a close my tenure as the owner of the Southern Oregon Business Journal. Jim Teece will take the ownership reigns into the future. I

am confident he and his staff will continue to provide a useful and relevant publication to the print and on-line subscribers of the journal.

My presence may be felt with occasional articles of my own and through a blog site I am now preparing that plans to keep a finger on the pulse of southern Oregon’s industry sectors.

I am forever indebted to hundreds of people with whom I’ve come in contact around the two-thirds of the state we’ve served. You may find me in an occasional meeting, or as a guest speaker at a Chamber meeting, a Rotary Club, or sitting in on a non-profit discussion. Feel free to say hello or to send me a message.

Greg Henderson Ghenderson703@gmail.com

GREG

By Kara Henderson

T

o know my father is to know a man who often presents himself with serious intent and in earnest, dependent of course on the matter at hand. This is the man that I often knew as a child, always striving for the best not only in himself but also his children. My father was the person who taught me what it meant to work hard and give every task my best effort. I remember once as a child as I was doing dishes (haphazardly I’m sure) he said to me, “Every job worth doing is a job worth doing well.” I took these words to heart.

I wanted people to see me as they see

Dad

him, always giving his best, not complaining and never giving up. I wanted to be tough, just like Dad. The other side of my father I am lucky enough to share with him is his sense of humor, his passion for knowledge and his love of the arts. My dad once raced in the house and told me to get in the car because we were going for a drive, “I need to show you something”, he said. I got in the car and he drove me about twenty minutes out of town and suddenly pulled over. “Look at that tree”, he said, “Isn’t it incredible”. I looked up to see the biggest, most magnificent tree

in full fall colors. It truly was incredible!

That is the quality I love the most in my Dad. My father has the ability to see beauty in so many things; so many tear jerking, beautiful, amazing things that many people overlook.

My Dad is and always will be the man to whom I compare all other men. Thank you, Dad, for being a great father, husband and all around amazing person. I am not sure what retirement will look like for you, but I do know that you deserve a break and to follow wherever your heart takes you.

I love you Dad! Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020 | 17

Congratulations Greg I've known Greg Henderson since April 1994 when I first met him at Wallmasters Toastmasters in Tigard, Or. The first item that stood out was his effervescent smile, it was so warm and genuine. Always dressed in business attire and looking so slim and dapper. Greg's sense of humor was always there and he could spring it on you without you realizing what just took place.

I remember one of his speeches he was giving us a history lesson on zucchini plus the fact he was helping his brother on the farm this one year. His departing ending was if you really want to lose friends just keep giving them zucchini as you are trying to get rid of them since they tend to harvest more than most people know they will.

One meeting Greg came dressed in his tuxedo, when asked why he was so dressed he said "Why not!". He felt we should enjoy him dressed his best.

I noticed that Greg changed jobs several times and learned that his Toastmaster skills were a great asset, in addition to his many other ones, to interview and become a successful candidate.

It was fun to watch Greg and Mike Schock banter when it came to Ducks vs. Beavers. You knew that Greg was the Duck fan.

One of Greg's best speeches was his talk about "Little Johnny" and the space between birth and death dates on a headstone. He delivered it extremely well.

Cleon Cox III

Greg, It’s been such a pleasure to work with you.

Chambers of Commerce thrive because of great minds and hearts, people like you who share their talents so generously. I’ve been moved by your genuine commitment to our business advocacy and government issues efforts, and have valued your informed and your keen business-minded counsel. You’ve been present and influential in our Springfield Chamber community, and you’ve brought so many of our communities together by telling our stories and celebrating our talents and passion for Oregon, business, industry, and community. Yes, I know. A warm send-off and well wishes are in order. But tell me now – please you can’t possibly be done with us. Right?! May I respectfully remind you there are lots of opportunities to stay engaged, if you so choose. Either way, on behalf of the Springfield Chamber team, congratulations and best wishes on your next great adventure. Vonnie

I once read the following quote, “Some people enter our lives and leave almost instantly, others stay, and forge such an impression on our heart and soul, we are changed forever.” Greg Henderson is just such a person. Congratulations Greg! We will miss your contribution to the Journal, but we will miss you more. Enjoy this next chapter in your life. I am confident it will be a page-turner.

In appreciation and friendship, Barry J. Robinson, General Manager, AmeriTitle, Inc 18 | Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020

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Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020 | 19

OPINION

By Joe Cortright City Observatory

T

here’s a meme equating density with Covid-19 risk.

Two polar cases shows that density (or lack thereof) has little to do with the spread of the pandemic.

Many, including New York’s Governor, have been quick to blame density for the spread of Covid-19. Last month, we looked at data for one of North America’s densest cities—Vancouver, British Columbia—and found that it had a lower rate of reported cases per capita than nearly all large US metro areas. Today we check back in on the progress of the pandemic in Vancouver compared to similar American cities. And we also take a quick look on the area with the highest rate of Covid-19 cases in the US—and its one of the nation’s most rural areas, not a dense city at all.

There’s little question that the fact that the New York metropolitan area has had the highest rate of reported cases per 20 | Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020

Postcards from the edges: Density is not Destiny

capita has colored perceptions. People might naturally assume that because New York is our densest city, and Coronavirus hit hardest there, that there was some connection. It turns out however, that within the New York metro area, rates of reported cases are actually higher in the suburbs (including Rockland and Westchester counties) than in the five boroughs of New York City. It’s also the case that in the city itself, the hardest hit neighborhoods actually are much less dense than those least affected.

A Postcard from the Navajo Nation Photo: Salt Lake Tribune While New York has dominated the awful statistics and headlines of the pandemic, today, the hardest hit area in the US is far away, and far different: the Navajo Nation. In the past week, New York’s rate of infection has been surpassed by that on the Navajo Nation, one of America’s least densely settled areas. The nation covers an area larger than Ireland spread across three states— Arizona, New Mexico and Utah—and consists overwhelmingly of very low density housing. But its rate has grown to more than 2,449 cases per 100,000 population even higher than New York City’s 2,300.

The underlying problems in the

Navajo Nation are not density, but rather poverty, a lack of health care, and housing over-crowding. Interestingly, these same factors were identifies as correlates of Covid prevalence rates within New York City by a Furman Center analysis of zip-code case data.

when we looked in April, its rate of Covid-19 cases per capita was lower than in just about any large US metro area, and lower than in nearby Seattle or Portland (and Portland ranked 50th of the 53 large US metro areas for Covid cases per capita).

A Postcard from Vancouver

Vancouver has some of the most dense

As we pointed out last month, if you think that the Coronavirus is spread by density, riding public transit, and tight connections to China, then you’d have to believe that Vancouver, British Columbia would be squarely in the cross-hairs of the pandemic.

Vancouver is one of the five densest cities in North America, has a much higher than average transit ridership, and a large Chinese immigrant population. But

place in North America, and still, the lowest incidence of Covid-19.

(Photo: Global News) Metro Vancouver is the densest city in Canada, with a density of more than

5,000 residents per square kilometer.

It’s the fifth densest large city in North America, and in the US, only San Francisco and New York have higher densities.. Two-thirds of its residents live in multi-family housing. In addition, Vancouver is a global gateway city with substantial tourist and business travel, close ties to Asia, and a large immigrant Chinese population. Metro Vancouver has more than a quarter million residents who were born in China or Hong Kong. A high fraction of its residents use the city’s excellent transit system. A recent city report shows that a majority of all trips were made by walking, cycling or transit.

Last month, we reported that through mid-April, Vancouver had reported about 45 cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 population, noticeably lower than the 54 per 100,000 in Portland and a fraction of the 200 cases per 100,000 in Seattle. But as we know, the virus doesn’t stand still, and some places that initially avoided the pandemic—like the Twin cities—have simply experienced an outbreak later than other places.

Here we’ve updated number of cases through early May, as reported by the New York Times (for US cities) and by the British Columbia Center for Disease Continued on Page 38

Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020 | 21

UNEMPLOYMENT

By Damon Runberg

O

ne of the most visible and devastating impacts of the state’s stay-at-home order to protect us from the human health crisis presented

by COVID-19 has been mass layoffs. Tens of millions of initial claims for unemployment insurance were filed across the nation in the first nine weeks of the crisis. Here in Oregon about 412,000 initial claims for traditional unemployment insurance were received in the first nine weeks, just shy of 20 percent of the statewide labor force.

During “normal” times we would

22 | Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020

Who Are the COVID-19 Unemployed in Oregon?

typically not talk too much about unemployment insurance claims. Even during our last recession that began in 2008, the increase in unemployment insurance claims was relatively gradual.

The rapid onset of the COVID-19 restrictions meant that our traditional economic indicators, such as total nonfarm employment or the unemployment rate, could not immediately show the severity of this economic shock. That left us with the unemployment insurance claims data as one of the few indicators in the first weeks of the shock that could help us

understand the magnitude of the crisis.

We now have nine weeks of processed initial claims data representing more than 290,000 initial claims, which is a large enough group for us to draw some conclusions about industries, areas, and populations most impacted at the onset of the crisis.

Let’s start with the regional distribution of these initial unemployment insurance claims. Not surprisingly the most populated counties have the largest number of initial unemployment

insurance claims, with Multnomah (69,100 claims) and Washington County (36,823 claims) in the Portland Metro area topping the list of counties with the highest number of claims processed.

However, we can see a clearer picture of the hardest hit counties by looking at the number of initial claims as a share of the total labor force. Here we see that counties with large accommodation and food service sectors and tourism destinations were the hardest hit. The number of initial claims processed in Lincoln County represented over 22 percent of the labor force and around 21 percent of the labor force in Clatsop County. Deschutes County accounted for the highest share of unemployment

insurance claims processed of Oregon’s metropolitan counties, accounting for nearly 18 percent of the Bend MSA labor force.

The counties least impacted nine weeks into the crisis are the least populated in the state. They are likely ranked so low due to proportionally smaller concentration of local employment in restaurants or other businesses directly impacted by the COVID-19 restrictions, including health services and retail trade.

As would be expected, accommodation and food services has been the hardest hit industry during the current crisis,

with initial claims processed over the past nine weeks representing 37 percent of statewide employment in the industry.

Arts, entertainment, and recreation was the next hardest hit as museums, ski resorts, zoos, and other recreation companies have closed or seen their operations significantly curtailed.

Another hard hit industry is “other services,� which includes personal care services like fitness instructors, childcare workers, barbers/ stylists, massage therapists, and pet groomers.

Perhaps more surprising has been the large number of initial unemployment insurance claims being processed in construction, health care, and Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020 | 23

Continued from Page 23

manufacturing. These were industries that on first glance would seem more insulated from the initial COVID-19 restrictions. Health care posting large numbers of layoffs during a health crisis may seem puzzling; however, there are many health-related businesses that are not serving on the front lines of the COVID-19 response such as dentist

Layoffs in construction and manufacturing are likely a result of an inability for many of these businesses to implement effective social distancing requirements. However, as this crisis continues, layoffs are increasingly due to a demand shock from less consumer spending. The one commonality among these hardest hit industries is an inability

groups posted notably higher shares of layoffs than higher paying occupational groups. The occupational groups with a median hourly rate of less than $20 an hour represented around 68 percent of total initial claims for unemployment insurance processed over the first nine weeks. This represents a higher share than the 58 percent of statewide

offices, ambulatory health services, medical labs, and surgery centers.

Beginning on May 1 elective procedures are being allowed across the state. We are already beginning to see the share of unemployment insurance claims from health care drop as layoffs slow dramatically and these businesses reopen.

for many of the jobs to transition to work from home and the design of workplaces that makes social distancing difficult.

employment these lower paying occupations account for. Meanwhile, the highest paying occupational groups, those with a median hourly rate greater than $30, represent only 14 percent of initial claims processed, but 22 percent of total employment.

24 | Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020

Although these COVID-related layoffs are spread across all industries, it is becoming clear that the most vulnerable Oregonians are being impacted more significantly. Lower paying occupational

When comparing the level of education

for recent unemployment insurance claimants compared with the educational attainment of the entire labor force, we see that those with lower levels of education have been hit particularly hard. This is likely a reflection of the industries that have been hardest hit, such as leisure and hospitality, construction, retail, and manufacturing that have a higher concentration of

The age distribution of the unemployment insurance claimants is fairly typical of the labor force more broadly, with a few exceptions. Those ages 25 to 34 have been particularly hard hit. They accounted for roughly 29 percent of all unemployment insurance claimants in the past nine weeks, but only 23 percent of the total labor force.

This age group accounts for a larger

percent of total claimants. However, this is likely a reflection of lack of unemployment insurance coverage for these young workers who have fewer covered hours in the system.

workers with a high school diploma or less. Around 58 percent of recent unemployment insurance claims were by individuals with a high school diploma or less, a significantly higher share than the 28 percent of the labor force they account for.

share of the jobs in industries that were particularly hard hit. It could also be that this group represents workers earlier in their career and they were more susceptible to layoffs than higher level managers or supervisors. The youngest workers (ages 16 to 19) seem to be the least impacted, accounting for only 2

amount of non-response. For instance, this early look at the data only includes gender information for around 56 percent of the 303,400 initial claims processed. The initial claims processed for men (85,934) were slightly higher than those processed for women (82,947). However, before the COVID

While filing for unemployment benefits claimants are asked their gender, race, and ethnicity. These questions are not mandatory, resulting in a significant

Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020 | 25

Continued from Page 25

crisis women represented roughly 36 percent of all unemployment insurance claimants. Since March 15 they’ve represented just under half of the claims that included gender.

Based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, women represent the majority of employed workers in many of the industries hardest hit by recent layoffs, including accommodation and food services (57%); health care and social assistance (76%); and other services (55%). With women also representing a larger share of layoffs than is typical, it is likely that women are being disproportionally impacted by these 26 | Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020

COVID layoffs.

There are similar non-response issues with race. Roughly 20 percent of those filing for unemployment insurance did not identify a race or respond to the question. If we exclude those nonresponses, the racial and ethnic breakout of the COVID unemployed looks very similar to Oregon’s labor force more broadly. However, similar to gender it is difficult to definitively state that all racial and ethnic groups are being impacted similarly relative to their size, as the nonresponse rate is high enough to leave open some uncertainty.

This is a difficult time for many of us. In addition to the emotional toll this global pandemic is taking, many of our fellow Oregonians are also struggling with the economic realities of becoming unemployed. The Oregon Employment Department is here to serve in this time of need by administering unemployment insurance. Due to the record increase in claims, it is taking longer than usual for claims to be processed. The Unemployment Insurance Division is working as fast as they can to process every claim, and they continue to add staff. They ask that you continue to file weekly and you will be notified when your claim is processed.

For additional information about unemployment insurance and updates regarding new federal programs go here. https://www.qualityinfo.org/-/who-arethe-covid-19-unemployed-in-oregon

Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020 | 27

STRONG TOWNS

By Daniel Herriges

W cities.

e are living in the aftermath of an unprecedented experiment in how we build and inhabit

Most people alive in the United States today have only ever known post-World War II development patterns. Most of us have never experienced an era without commuter suburbs outside major cities, or without freeways ringing downtown.

We may visit or even live in neighborhoods that were built in the 1920s or the 1890s or even earlier, but postwar suburbia is familiar and normal 28 | Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020

Kansas City's Fateful Suburban Experiment

to all of us. Thus, it’s easy to forget just what a titanic and consequential shift occurred in the years that followed the Great Depression and World War II. Kansas City, Missouri is in many ways a poster child for this shift. A data-driven look at its growth over time, and its history of annexing land on its outskirts, helps make clear the magnitude of the transformation that this city, and so many others, underwent. It is a transformation whose painful consequences haunt us today.

1898 postcard of downtown Kansas City. Source: Wikimedia Commons.

From “Paris on the Plains” to Freeway Capital of America

In 1853, the town that would become Kansas City, Missouri, was founded at the confluence of the Missouri and Kansas rivers, long a strategic trading post and a hub for westward expansion. By half a century later, it had grown to be a metropolis on the prairie, a place not only of great wealth but of the cultural bounty that tends to follow great wealth, embodied in the city’s rich jazz and Vaudeville scenes. Kansas City was also a

place of carefully cultivated beauty in the form of elegant parks and grand civic buildings, a showpiece for the City Beautiful movement that earned

continent—a radical experiment in city building. Under this Suburban Experiment, we built freeways and subsidized new home purchases, jump-

The Suburban Experiment can be described, using this illustration by Léon Krier, as a sudden shift from the model of growth depicted on the left—organic

nicknames like “Paris of the Plains” and “City of Fountains.”

starting suburban growth and unleashing a sort of geographic hyperexpansion even as the population of cities like Kansas City stagnated, and many of their older, inner neighborhoods fell into decline. Today, the Kansas City metro area, spanning parts of two states, has more freeway lane-miles per capita than any other major U.S. metro.

expansion through duplication of an existing development pattern based on multi-purpose complete neighborhoods —to the model depicted on the right— horizontal hyper-growth, with the rise of a skyscraper district in the core dependent on suburban commuting:

Kansas City in the early 20th century was a city to be proud of. It was in many ways a model of the power of the traditional development pattern to produce a place of lasting wealth by building on a simple yet timeless template.

In the era immediately following World War II, Kansas City undertook—along with nearly the entire North American

In 2019, geoanalytics firm Urban3 conducted a detailed survey of Kansas City’s fiscal geography: its sources of tax revenue and its major expenses, its

Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020 | 29

Kansas City from Page 29

street network and its historical development patterns. Throughout 2020, we will be publishing a series of articles using Urban3’s data and maps to tell stories of Kansas City’s past, present, and future financial productivity; its sources of enduring wealth and resilience; and some of the planning mistakes from which the city is still working to recover.

Let’s start with a look at Kansas City’s trajectory of growth, one which makes it nearly a poster child for the Suburban Experiment.

Pre-war Kansas City: A Compact, Incrementally Intensifying City The era in which the frontier city grew to maturity was, in many ways, a golden age of American city-building. The rapid growth of Kansas City in the late 19th 30 | Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020

and early 20th centuries—along with peers such as Chicago, Indianapolis, and the Twin Cities—was made possible by a fusion of centuries-old European architectural and placemaking traditions, coupled with new technology and the adaptable template of the rectilinear street grid, a uniquely American invention.

The neighborhoods that sprang up in this time were compact places filled with a variety of housing types from standalone homes to duplexes to apartment buildings, interspersed with

neighborhood stores so that you could meet many needs by walking. The new (at the time) technology of the electric streetcar heavily shaped the development of such neighborhoods.

Kansas City’s steepest population growth

in its entire history occurred in the period from about 1900 to 1930. This period coincides with a “filling out” of the city along streetcar lines, and a “thickening up” of existing neighborhoods: the city did not actually expand its geographic borders one bit between the years 1910 and 1946, yet its population doubled. By 1946, Kansas City had 434,000 inhabitants spread over an area of about 60 square miles, giving it a population density slightly less than that of Philadelphia or Chicago today.

This time-lapse video shows the expansion of Kansas City, MO’s municipal boundaries over time. Note the huge increase in annexation after World War II.

Postwar Kansas City: Explosive Growth Through Annexation

study in the effects of rapid outward growth on the city’s basic financial productivity.

largely suburban-style development: residential enclaves and commercial strip malls along major roads. It is full of

In the postwar era, Kansas City adopted a very different trajectory: explosive horizontal expansion.

It’s important to separate two questions here: that of population growth from that of physical growth of the city. Two simple numbers convey how these two things diverged from one another:

roads that must be kept paved and sewer and water service that must be maintained.

In some metropolitan areas, this common experience occurred through the growth of suburbs that incorporated themselves as independent cities. In others, the core city used annexation to gobble up huge amounts of new land within its borders. The Kansas City metro area reflects a hybrid of both growth strategies: there are many separate suburbs, but the city itself also grew its borders dramatically to incorporate a large amount of the former farmland that was rapidly being carved up into subdivisions and strip malls.

This makes it possible to treat Kansas City—the municipality itself—as a case

From 1946 to 1964, the city’s population grew from 434,000 to about 486,000— an increase of 12%.

At the same time, the city’s land area grew from 60 square miles to 314 square miles—an increase of 423%.

The adjoining map contrasts Kansas City’s 1910 border (outlined in black) with the post-1910 city (everything outside that outline). Most of the land annexed in the 1950s and 1960s, shown in green, was undeveloped at the time: farmland or woods. But today, it is

Let’s look at what this explosive growth has done to Kansas City’s infrastructure obligations. Here is its effect on the extent of the road network—a 169% increase in road miles: We can also examine how population density has changed. Notably, Kansas City proper has added very few people since the mid-20th century. Growth in its fringes has been largely counterbalanced by the relative depopulation of some inner-city neighborhoods, and by shrinking household sizes even in city Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020 | 31

Kansas City from Page 31

neighborhoods that remained middleclass or wealthy.

In total, the city in 1946 had 434,000 people in 60 square miles. Today’s city has an additional 58,000 people, but has added 259 square miles—a much lower population density corresponding to greater infrastructure and service obligations per capita. In 1946, Kansas City had 12 feet of road per capita. Since 1946, on the other hand, the city has added a staggering 148 feet of road for every added resident: This spreading out might be justified if it were accompanied by a commensurate increase in wealth and financial means.

But it has not been. Where, in modern day Kansas City, is real-estate value most concentrated? We need only map the tax value per acre of properties within city limits to see that Kansas City’s highest32 | Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020

value land uses lie overwhelmingly within the 1910 borders: There is a powerful lesson expressed in these maps and charts. The traditional development approach followed by Kansas City prior to World War II built a place of enduring value. This approach was simple and tested by thousands of years of experience around the world: Build little by little, without accruing large amounts of debt.

Build by replicating and tweaking existing templates, not by radically overhauling existing land use and transportation patterns.

Build by the work of many hands—allow a large number of citizens to participate in the physical development of the city.

Kansas City succumbed to annexation mania in the postwar years. It was far from alone in this decision: many other cities similarly tacked on large amounts of suburban and rural land to their borders, obtaining a surge of short-term cash flow in exchange for long-term liabilities. The leaders who made these decisions were not stupid or malicious.

They were largely operating according to the best theories and practices of the time. Unfortunately, history has proven those theories misguided.

The newer, annexed sections of Kansas City are now a fiscal albatross, imposing disproportionate liability upon the municipal government for maintenance of roads and pipes while providing a disproportionately small share of tax revenue. The people who live in these areas are as important as any other citizens, of course, and do not deserve to

be abandoned. But Kansas City, if it wishes to provide a high quality of life for all of its citizens, needs to reckon with the basic productivity of its development pattern.

Jackson County, Oregon Real Estate Inventory April 2019-2020

Continue to follow this series for more insight into what such a reckoning looks like. One thing is for certain: for a city that was once famed as the elegant “Paris of the Plains,” the past holds more than a few lessons the future would be wise to heed.

Daniel Herriges (Twitter: @DanielStrTowns) serves as Senior Editor for Strong Towns, and has been a regular contributor since 2015. He is also a founding member of the organization.

Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020| 33

The Existing Home Sales report doesn't capture activity in new construction. For that, we have to turn to other data released this week on new building permits and housing starts (the ground-breaking phase of new construction). Here too, things are quite a bit weaker, but the differences between "starts" and "permits" offer a clue. Specifically, the bigger drop in housing starts suggests quarantine measures are physically preventing new home construction to a greater degree than a lack of demand.

34 | Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020

Perhaps that's why builder confidence has already managed to find its footing. The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) reported a 7 point uptick in confidence on Monday after hitting 8-year lows in last month's survey.

The Mortgage Banker Association's weekly mortgage app survey offers significantly more detail on the shift in purchase activity. To be fair, this bounce is greatly benefiting from seasonality (i.e. March and April are typically the strongest months). Even so, if someone says last week's purchase applications were right in line with 2019's average, they're not lying.

Can we find fault with the chart to the left? Is there cause for concern? How about the decline in refinance applications? And how does the current level of purchase applications stack up historically? Here's how:

Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020| 35

Continued from Page 35

In other words, refi activity is still higher than it was in 2016 and not much lower than the last major refi boom in 20112013. That's a staggering accomplishment considering the operational impediments due to social distancing. It must have something to do with rates hitting all time lows several times in the past 2 weeks.

Is there a counterpoint to the low rate narrative? Several recent newsletters have discussed the mortgage market being in a very precarious state due to the forbearance tidal wave. And while that definitely kept rates higher for certain loan programs, the wave is clearly beginning to level-off now.

The flattening of this curve means mortgage investors are beginning to calm down. As a result, credit availability is improving and puzzlingly high rates are starting to move lower for certain programs and borrowers. This won't happen overnight, but at least it's beginning to happen.

That last thought can be applied to the entire coronavirus saga. Things have been very bad in ways we've never experienced. Things won't immediately get better for obvious reasons. Nonetheless, we can still observe progress and improvement if we know where to look.

36 | Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020

POPULATION

By Sarah Cunningham

Oregon’s 2019 Natural Population Increase Was the Lowest on Record

Oregon Continues to Attract Migrants

I

n 2019, Oregon’s population increased by 41,100 to 4,236,400. This marked growth of 1.0 percent over the year, and growth of 10.6 percent since the 2010 Census. Portland State University’s Population Research Center recently released more detailed information on why this population growth has occurred.

There are two main reasons that lead to population change. First, an area increases in population if more births than deaths occur in a given year or vice versa. Second, population can increase or decrease through net migration. That is, over the year, people either move into or out of an area. A positive value of net migration means more people moving

into an area than leaving it, while a negative value of net migration indicates more people leaving an area than moving in.

In 2019, natural increase contributed 5,942 to population growth, which was the lowest since comparable records began in 1960. The low natural increase is caused by an increase in the number of deaths (36,200), which was the third highest total since 1960. In 2017 and 2018, there were 36,800 and 36,600 deaths in Oregon, respectively. Since 2011, Oregon had a relatively low natural increase compared with the prior four decades.

With 35,200 net migrants, a lot of Oregon’s population increase in 2019 was due to net migration. Over the past 20 years, Oregon had an average net migration of 28,900 people per year.

The lowest number of net migrants over the last 20 years was 7,000 in 2010.

In general, we see net migrants increase as the economy expands and more jobs become available. Notice that prior to the Great Recession, net migration was booming in Oregon. As the recession hit, people became less mobile. This, combined with Oregon experiencing a deeper recession than the nation as a whole, brought net migration to its lowest levels since the 1980s. The current economic crisis driven by public health restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic will almost certainly cause migration to fall in 2020. For more on the link between migration and economic growth, visit Damon Runberg’s article Migration in Oregon Before the Days of COVID. Read the rest of this article online at SouthernOregonBusiness.com

Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020 | 37

Postcards from Page 21

Control (BCCDC). In each case, we’ve adjusted for population by calculating the cumulative number of reported cases per 100,000 population. Data for Portland and Seattle are for their respective US metropolitan areas; BC data is for the two provincial health authorities–Vancouver Coastal and Fraser–that serve the Vancouver Area. Data are for May 11.

SouthernOregonBusiness.com

Reported Covid-19 Cases per Capita, Selected Cities Though the number of cases has increased since April, Vancouver’s reported cases per 100,000 is still substantially lower than in both its American neighbors. In fact, metro Vancouver has a lower reported rate of Covid-19 cases than any of the 53 US metropolitan areas with a million or more population. Vancouver is in the same region, and roughly the same size as Portland and Seattle. And it is far denser, and yet it has performed the best of the three in fighting the spread of the Corona virus. It should be pretty compelling evidence that density is not a determining factor of whether one is vulnerable to the pandemic or not.

The Navajo Nation, with a population of just 174,000, has had twice as many cases (more than 4,000), than the Vancouver metropolitan area (population 3 million).

These two post-cards from the edge, one from an extremely low density place with the highest rate of reported cases per capita, and the other from and extremely high density place, with a lower rate of cases per capita than any large US metropolitan area, should give pause to anyone asserting that urban density is an important driver of the pandemic.

38 | Southern Oregon Business Journal June 2020

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