1. SCATTERZONE 1
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INTRO
Scatter Zone Theory
A search for game-changing awareness Understand Climate Change from a ScatterZone perspective Editor Bengt Ovelius Sweden
WebSite and contact www.scatter.zone Copyright Picopuls AB
Quotes : You are not mature enough to tell it like it is. Even that burden you leave to us children. Greta, 15 Years old. "Never tell a young person that it cannot be done. God may have been waiting centuries for someone ignorant enough .... to do that very thing." - G. M. Trevelyan "It's kind of fun to do the impossible." - Walt Disney
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GOAL=SIMPLICITY
The ScatterZone theory is extremely simple.
The Vostok station was founded 1957 , situated at the South Pole and one of the tasks is to make ice core measurements. Each dot is an ice-core measurement. Each measurement is characterized by CO2 in ppm, and a global temperature anomaly in C. These dots are measurements of air bubbles in ice-cores collected by the ice during the last 500,000 years. All the measurements form a so called scatterplot. These measurements have a lot of noice. But you can easily see the most likely behaviour of our earth just by placing black dots in the middle of the scatterplot in harmony with it and then extend the black dots into the future.
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The black dots should give a high confidence answer to the question what over temperature we can expect for a given concentration of CO2 in ppm. Is this the untold story about climate change ? This data is soon 50 years old. You just have to look at it to understand our situation.
That is the scatterzone theory. If you accept this simple starting point you will learn surprising things over our future. We can also start to understand what we must urgently do to survive the biggest crisis humanity has ever faced. In this book everything is explained in small steps, easy for everyone to follow even if you are only 15 years old! The surprises you will soon experience might offer a game-changing and revolutionary awareness. We urgently need revolutionary theories and climate solver solutions. Time is running out...... Change is coming... Climate change will affect everyone, and everyone should have an idea what is happening. If we want to make democracy work , it is a duty to be well-informed.
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It is hard to find a more simple theory.
This is just the Vostoc Ice core data. Without changing anything of this old data you just see the historic relation between CO2 and earth temperature. With high confidence you can guess the future in the black dots. That—s it. That—s the entire theory! We don{t need more than that to understand the future and act accordingly. The rest is pure and simple mathematics. The atmosphere has not been over 300 ppm CO2 for the last several million years. The additional risk to run totally out of control for climate is that a fraction of a percent of the methane in arctic starts to leak into the atmosphere. That can cause the greenhouse effect to double within a very short time. The climate soultion technology must include an efficient protection also for this situation.
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It is more important to build a defence against CO2 and Methane than to build up the military forces in the world. We are talking about major threats in a very near future. From this simple scatterplot we can easily see that we have programmed the atmosphere for +25 C.
By looking at an equal scatterplot for the oceans we can see that we have programmed the oceans for +40 m sea level rise. Nobody can stop this process unless we remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This book will discuss how fast this must be done to avoid exceeding 1.5 centigrade over temperature. As soon as the so-called scatterzone theory is accepted the rest will be exact mathematical proofs.
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PREFACE
The UN conference of nearly 200 nations took place in Katowice, Poland, 2-14 December 2018. It's main task was to turn the vision of tackling global warming agreed in Paris in 2015 into concrete action. Sir David Attenborough told the summit that without action "the collapse of our civilisation and the extinction of much of the natural world is on the horizon". A 15 years old girl, Greta Thunberg, told UN summit that students are acting in absence of global leadership. She said: We realise that we are facing an existential threat. This is the biggest crisis humanity has ever faced. First we have to realise this and then as fast as possible do something to stop the emissions and try to save what we can save. For 25 years countless people have come to the UN climate conferences begging our world leaders to stop emissions. That has not worked as emissions are continuing to rise. So I will not beg the world leaders to care for our future," she said. I will instead let them know change is coming whether they like it or not. Since our leaders are behaving like children, we will have to take the responsibility they should have taken long ago, she said. You only speak of green eternal economic growth because you are too scared of being unpopular. You only talk about moving forward with the same bad ideas that got us into this mess, even when the only sensible thing to do is pull the emergency brake.
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You are not mature enough to tell it like it is. Even that burden you leave to us children.
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Our civilization is being sacrificed for the opportunity of a very small number of people to continue making enormous amounts of money. ( Greta Thunberg is descendant of Professor Svante Arrhenius, the Nobel-prize-winning scientist who in 1896 first calculated the greenhouse effect caused by carbon dioxide emissions. ) My name is Bengt Ovelius 15 years old Greta is asking the older generation (like me) for answers and she hasn{t got any acceptable answers so far. Millions of children and young people have the same opinion - and nobody can stop them from asking and demanding answers: "You are not mature enough to tell it like it is. Even that burden you leave to us." For that reason I do feel a heavy responsibility to try to answer after my best ability, with all my experience and from my special point of view. My hope is that many people who feel the same, speak out as well. Climate warming can not be solved without an open discussion. The young generatios opinion seems to be: We are in a war. The news-media should be full of it, the political life should be full of the discussion regarding cause and cure, Thousands of ideas must be in discussion how to understand and handle the extremely critical situation. My background: For the last two decades I have worked with thermodynamics and computer simulation aiming at climate solutions.
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I used to believe in an old preverb saying: It is better to light a candle than to ban the darkness. For that reason I have avoided the climate discussion and focused on finding solutions But you come to a point where you have to realise that there is a relation between the cause and the cure. When a patient comes to an emergency room with pain in the stomach it is crucial that the doctor finds the exact cause. A first doctor says: you have eaten something inappropriate and I will give you an aspirin. Another doctor comes with a more shocking diagnosis: It is your appendix that is on the verge of bursting. Every second counts. The paradox is: The patient is more safe under the shocking diagnosis. Knowing the true background paves the road for a true solution If you were the patient you should tell the first doctor: " You are not mature enough to tell me like it is. Even that burden you leave to me. The ScatterZone theory gives a chocking diagnosis. But take it easy! The earth is much more safe under the shocking diagnosis. Knowledge is power. Knowing the true background paves the road for a true solution In year 2008 I was working with a project to replace pistons with a sound wave. You can see a short presentation at Youtube WWF Climate Solver Picoterm . My project was to my surprise discussed at the highest level of IPCC as an example of climate solving projects at Global Forum that I had the privilege to attend in Stockholm, 2008. The keynote speaker was the Vice President of IPCC.
I wrote this email to him:
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Dear Mr PROF. MOHAN MUNASINGHE I listened to your excellent keynote at Berns, Stockholm. Unfortunately I didn't find you in the crowd. I am the inventor behind the sound-wave piston that was mentioned at the opening ceremony as Bone of sweden's two most promising climate inventions.# .....(then explaining that we have already programmed the atmosphere.....). If this scenario is right for coming years, it is not enough to bring CO2 emissions down to zero. It will be necessary within 20 years to reverse CO2 with the same speed as it is now emitted. Otherwise earth will rise more than 3 - 4 centigrades, within a timespan of 50 years from now. I mainly concentrate on finding solutions, but it would be very nice to have a comment from you regarding this scenario. Among scientists here in Sweden I can identify the pieces of puzzle needed to approach such solutions - active CO2 reduction. It is not an easy task, but if it proves necessary based on more scientific calculations, such development work should start urgently. Best regards Bengt Ovelius
He answered From: Mohan Munasinghe Sent: den 1 juni 2008 07:08 To: Bengt Ovelius Subject: Re: Climate Scenario
Thanks for your kind words and sharing your views. Your scenario is certainly startling. I will show it to some IPCC colleagues. Best regards and hope your invention takes off! MM.
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At that conference 2008 this was the IPCC message: IPCC Summary for Policymakers It is likely that the temperature change ..can be kept to less than 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels are characterized by atmospheric concentrations in 2100 of about 450 ppm C02eq (high confidence). This has become the rule of thumb for most countries and governments ever since. Is the world working after the wrong theory when solving the climate crises ? If yes: This is extremely dangerous. just as a false diagnose from a doctor. My focus 2008 was climate solutions. But I couldn{t avoid to see the obvious conflict between the VOSTOK scatterplot and the IPCC summary