9781847941862 by Smakprov Media AB

Tim O’Reilly is widely recognised as the leading thinker of Silicon Valley.

‘For anyone who wants to know how to prepare for the future – and how As the founder and CEO of the publisher, conference producer and o nline we might shape that future in ways that broadly benefit society, not just learning company O’Reilly Media, he has become famous for spotting technological or world-shaking entrepreneurialpotential elites – WTF? an indispensable guide.’ technology with – from is launching the world’s first commercial website in 1993, via popularising like ‘Open Source’, ‘Web Reid Hoffman,terms co-founder of LinkedIn and 2.0’ and the ‘Maker Movement’ in the late 1990s and early 2000s, to advising co-author of The Start-Up of You governments around the world on their tech policies over the last decade. O’Reilly ishas also partner of the for venture capital firm ahead. O’Reilly lphaTech ‘O’Reilly anauncanny knack charting what’s In AWTF?, he Ventures (OATV), and sits on the boards of Maker Media, Code for A merica, shows us how he does it. At a time of sweeping change, it is a bracing PeerJ, Civis Analytics and PopVox. He lives in Oakland, California.

and an exhilarating read.’

Anne-MariePraise Slaughter, forPresident WTF? and CEO, New America ‘So many insights, so much book history, muchisofanour future byand theheartfelt consummate ‘A punchy and provocative . . . so WTF? insightful plea, insider who is as muchaabetter part ofeconomy the story as society the people ideas he with writes daring us to reimagine and . . . Aand jaunty read a about – I was learning something on more or lesswith everythepage.’ compelling narrative of how technology interweaves real world.’ Financial Times

James Manyika, Director, McKinsey Global Institute ‘For anyone who wants to know how to prepare for the future – and how we

‘Tim O’Reilly’s creative insights and moral clarity have made him the might shape that future in ways that broadly benefit society, not just technotrusted guide to waves of technology now sweeping the planet. If you want logical or entrepreneurial elites – WTF? is an indispensable guide.’ a better future, don’t just read this book, make sure your friends do, too.’ Reidbut Hoffman, co-founder of LinkedIn Erik Brynjolfsson, Director, MIT Initiative on the

‘Excellent . . . Tim knows this stuff as well as anyone, and there’s never been a Digital Economy and co-author of The Second Machine Age more important moment to understand the issues raised in this book.’ Quartz

‘Tim has been an astute observer of both the successes and the excesses ‘Tim O’Reilly has his finger on the pulse of technology and the people who of Silicon Thisisprovocative distilsinthe learned make it in Valley. a way that unmatchedbook by anyone thelessons world he . . . has A rare and about the piece powerofofcriticism technology to shape ouraseconomy our do lives.’ important that inspires even it dissects.and Please read this book.’

Boing Boing Hal Varian, Chief Economist, Google

‘Tim O’Reilly’s creative insights and moral clarity have made him the trusted guide to waves of technology now sweeping the planet. If you want a b etter future, don’t just read this book, but make sure your friends do, too.’ Erik Brynjolfsson, co-author of The Second Machine Age ‘For more than two decades, Tim O’Reilly has been the conscience of the tech industry . . . His new book WTF? seizes on this singular moment in history, in which just about everything makes us say “WTF?”’ Wired ‘So many insights, so much history, so much of our future by the consummate insider who is as much a part of the story as the people and ideas he writes about – I was learning something on more or less every page.’ Dr James Manyika, Director, McKinsey Global Institute ‘Draws on decades of experience covering tech to illustrate how increasingly intelligent machines are changing the way we work and how they could impact the way we address our most pressing social concerns.’ Publishers Weekly ‘Tim has been an astute observer of both the successes and the excesses of Silicon Valley. This provocative book distils the lessons he has learned about the power of technology to shape our economy and our lives.’ Hal Varian, Chief Economist, Google ‘One of the most influential pioneers and thinkers of the internet age.’ Guardian ‘O’Reilly has an uncanny knack for charting what’s ahead. In WTF?, he shows us how he does it. At a time of sweeping change, it is a bracing and an exhilarating read.’ Anne-Marie Slaughter, President and CEO, New America ‘O’Reilly’s manner is closer to an Ivy League philosopher (he studied classics at Harvard) than a clichéd tech entrepreneur . . . A convener and a conceptualiser as well as the CEO of a nine-figure revenue company, he’s made a habit of being (mostly) right about tech trends over many years.’ Management Today ‘O’Reilly’s vision is more Utopian than dystopian, even downright o ptimistic in a roundabout, creative-destruction sort of way. The positive outlook is refreshing and engaging.’ Kirkus Reviews ‘No one is better at understanding the future than Tim O’Reilly. He has an intuitive feel and a deep knowledge of technology. This book makes sense of the astonishing transformations that are happening around us and is an indispensable guidebook to tomorrow.’ Walter Isaacson, author of Steve Jobs: The Exclusive Biography

1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2 Random House Business Books 20 Vauxhall Bridge Road London SW1V 2SA Random House Business Books is part of the Penguin Random House group of companies whose addresses can be found at global.penguinrandomhouse.com.

Copyright © Tim O’Reilly, 2017 Tim O’Reilly has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this Work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published by Random House Business Books in 2017 This paperback edition first published by Random House Business Books in 2018 www.penguin.co.uk A CIP catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 9781847941862 Printed and bound by Clays Ltd, St Ives plc Penguin Random House is committed to a sustainable future for our business, our readers and our planet. This book is made from Forest Stewardship Council® certified paper.

For all wh

For all who work to make tomorrow better than today.

CONTENT CONTE

Introduction: Introduction: The T

PartPart I: Using I: Using the 1

Seeing 1 Seeing the Fu th

2 Toward Toward a Glo a

3 Learning Learning from

4 There There Isn’tIsn’ Ju

PartPart II: Platform II: Platfo 5

5 Networks Networks and

6 Thinking Thinking in Pri

7 Government Governme a

PartPart III: A III:World A Wo 8

8 Managing Managing aW

9 “A Hot “A Hot Tempe Te

10 10 Media Media in the in A t 11

11 OurOur Skynet Skyn M

PartPart IV: It’s IV: It’s Up U to

12 12 Rewriting Rewriting the

13 13 Supermoney Supermon

CONTENTS CONTENTS

Introduction: The The WTF? Economy Introduction: WTF? Economy

PartPart I: Using the the Right Maps I: Using Right Maps 1

Seeing the Future in the 1 Seeing the Future in Present the Present

Toward a Global Brain 2 Toward a Global Brain

23 23

Learning fromfrom LyftLyft and and Uber 3 Learning Uber

48 48

There Isn’tIsn’t JustJust OneOne Future 4 There Future

71 71

PartPart II: Platform Thinking II: Platform Thinking 5

Networks and and the Nature of the 5 Networks the Nature of Firm the Firm

89 89

Thinking in Promises 6 Thinking in Promises

109 109

Government as aas Platform 7 Government a Platform

125 125

PartPart III: A Ruled by Algorithms III:World A World Ruled by Algorithms 8

Managing a Workforce of Djinns 8 Managing a Workforce of Djinns

153 153

“A Hot Temper Leaps O’erO’er a Cold Decree” 9 “A Hot Temper Leaps a Cold Decree”

170 170

10 10 Media in the of Algorithms Media in Age the Age of Algorithms

199 199

229 229

OurOur Skynet Moment 11 Skynet Moment

PartPart IV: It’s Up Up to Us IV: It’s to Us 12 12 Rewriting the Rules Rewriting the Rules

255 255

13 13 Supermoney Supermoney

274 274

viii •viiiCONTENTS • CONTENTS

14 14 We We Don’t Don’t Have Have to Run to Run Out Out of Jobs of Jobs

298298

15 15 Don’t Don’t Replace Replace People, People, Augment Augment Them Them

320320

16 16 Work Work on Stuff on Stuff ThatThat Matters Matters

351 351

Acknowledgments Acknowledgments

373 373

Notes Notes

377 377

Index Index

407407

INTROD INTRODU

THIS MORNIN THIS MORNING,

kitchen, kitchen, toldtold it toi a Lyft to take a Lyft to take me my smartp and and my smartphon years, car years, thatthat car mig the first the first timetime woulw At times, At times, “W people reading people reading the drivin and and self-selfdriving c dismay. T eveneven dismay. They or whether or whether the the rob “WTF?” buta iv “WTF?” but in Astonishm Astonishment: nearby or the nearby or the fast sto writewrite newsnews stories —hf mentment partsparts — for extinct species extinct species bac marshal thous marshal thousands services monmon services at tha Dismay: Dismay: the th fe owners theirtheir owners richlr underclas newnew underclass; te peop don’tdon’t pay pay people e profit uctsucts and and profitsee economy economy and and drived society tra society thatthat tracks ernment datab ernment databases Everything Everything is a too fast. ar too fast. We We are he in ways w in ways thatthat we do

298298

INTRODUCTION: THE WTF? ECONOMY INTRODUCTION: THE WTF? ECONOMY

320320 351 351 373 373 377 377 407407

THIS MORNING, I SPOKE LOUD A $150 DEVICE IN MY THIS MORNING, I SPOKE OUTOUT LOUD TO TO A $150 DEVICE IN MY

kitchen, to check if ﬂight my ﬂight on time, asked to call kitchen, toldtold it toitcheck if my was was on time, and and asked it toitcall a Lyft to take methe to the airport. A showed car showed a few minutes a Lyft to take me to airport. A car up aup few minutes later,later, my smartphone buzzed let know me know it had arrived. a few and and my smartphone buzzed to lettome it had arrived. AndAnd in a in few years, car might be driving itself. Someone seeing years, thatthat car might veryvery wellwell be driving itself. Someone seeing this this for for the first would every excuse to say, “WTF?” the first timetime would havehave every excuse to say, “WTF?” At times, “WTF?” an expression of astonishment. many At times, “WTF?” is anis expression of astonishment. But But many people reading about technologies artificial intelligence people reading the the newsnews about technologies like like artificial intelligence driving drones a profound sense of unease and and self-selfdriving carscars and and drones feel feel a profound sense of unease and and dismay. They worry about whether children eveneven dismay. They worry about whether theirtheir children willwill havehave jobs,jobs, or whether robots taken them They are also saying or whether the the robots willwill havehave taken them all. all. They are also saying “WTF?” buta in a very different of voice. an expletive. “WTF?” but in very different tonetone of voice. It isItanisexpletive. Astonishment: phones advice about restaurant Astonishment: phones thatthat givegive advice about the the bestbest restaurant nearby or the fastest to work today; artificial intelligences nearby or the fastest routeroute to work today; artificial intelligences thatthat stories or advise doctors; printers make replacewritewrite newsnews stories or advise doctors; 3-D3-D printers thatthat make replace—humans; for humans; editing disease or bring mentment partsparts — for genegene editing thatthat can can curecure disease or bring extinct species to life; forms of corporate organization extinct species backback to life; newnew forms of corporate organization thatthat marshal thousands of demand on-demand workers so that consumers marshal thousands of onworkers so that consumers can can sum-sumservices at push the push a button an app. monmon services at the of a of button in aninapp. Dismay: robots reward Dismay: the the fear fear thatthat robots and and AIs AIs willwill taketake awayaway jobs,jobs, reward owners richly, formerly middleworkers theirtheir owners richly, and and leaveleave formerly middleclassclass workers partpart of a of a underclass; of millions of jobs in the United States newnew underclass; tenstens of millions of jobs herehere in the United States thatthat people enough to live littleunderstood financial proddon’tdon’t pay pay people enough to live on; on; littleunderstood financial prodprofitseeking algorithms down the entire world uctsucts and and profitseeking algorithms thatthat can can taketake down the entire world economy millions of people homes; a surveillance economy and and drivedrive millions of people fromfrom theirtheir homes; a surveillance society tracks every move stores in corporate society thatthat tracks our our every move and and stores it initcorporate and and gov-government databases. ernment databases. Everything is amazing, everything is horrible, it’s moving all moving Everything is amazing, everything is horrible, and and it’s all too fast. are heading toward a world shaped by technology too fast. We We are heading pell-pellmellmell toward a world shaped by technology in ways we don’t understand many reasons to fear. in ways thatthat we don’t understand and and havehave many reasons to fear.

x • xINTRODUCTION • INTRODUCTION

WTF? WTF? Google Google AlphaGo, AlphaGo, an artificial an artificial intelligence intelligence program, program, beatbeat the the world’s world’s bestbest human human Go Go player player , an, event an event thatthat was was widely widely pre-predicted dicted to be to atbeleast at least twenty twenty years years in the in the future— future— untiluntil it happened it happened in 2016. in 2016. If AlphaGo If AlphaGo can can happen happen twenty twenty years years early, early, whatwhat else else might might hit us hiteven us even sooner sooner thanthan we expect? we expect? For For starters: starters: An An AI running AI running on on a $35 a $35 Raspberry Raspberry Pi computer Pi computer beatbeat a top a top US US Air Air Force Force fighter fighter pilotpilot trainer trainer in combat in combat simulation. simulation. TheThe world’s world’s largest largest hedge hedge fundfund has has announced announced thatthat it wants it wants an AI an to AImake to make threethreefourths fourths of manageof management ment decisions decisions , including , including hiring hiring and and firing. firing. Oxford Oxford University University re- researchers searchers estimate estimate thatthat up to up47% to 47% of human of human tasks, tasks, including including many many components components of whiteof whitecollar collar jobs,jobs, maymay be done be done by machines by machines within within as little as little as twenty as twenty years. years. WTF? WTF? UberUber has has put put taxi taxi drivers drivers out out of work of work by replacing by replacing them them withwith ordinary ordinary people people offering offering ridesrides in their in their ownown cars,cars, creating creating millions millions of partof parttimetime jobsjobs worldwide. worldwide. Yet Yet UberUber is intent is intent on eventually on eventually replacing replacing those those on-demand on-demand drivers drivers withwith completely completely automated automated vehicles. vehicles. WTF? WTF? Without Without owning owning a single a single room, room, Airbnb Airbnb has has moremore rooms rooms on on offeroffer thanthan some some of the of largest the largest hotelhotel groups groups in the in world. the world. Airbnb Airbnb has unhas under 3,000 der 3,000 employees, employees, while while Hilton Hilton has has 152,000. 152,000. NewNew forms forms of corpoof corporate rate organization organization are outcompeting are outcompeting businesses businesses based based on best on best practices practices thatthat we’ve we’ve followed followed for the for lifetimes the lifetimes of most of most business business leaders. leaders. WTF? WTF? Social Social media media algorithms algorithms maymay havehave affected affected the the outcome outcome of of the 2016 the 2016 US presidential US presidential election. election. WTF? WTF? While While newnew technologies technologies are making are making some some people people veryvery rich,rich, incomes incomes havehave stagnated stagnated for ordinary for ordinary people, people, and and for the for first the first time, time, chil-childrendren in developed in developed countries countries are on aretrack on track to earn to earn less less thanthan theirtheir parents. parents. What What do AI, do AI, self-selfdriving driving cars,cars, on-demand on-demand services, services, and and income income in- inequality equality havehave in common? in common? They They are telling are telling us, loud us, loud and and clear, clear, thatthat we’rewe’re in for in massive for massive changes changes in work, in work, business, business, and and the economy. the economy. But But just just because because we can we can see that see that the future the future is going is going to betovery be very differdifferent doesn’t ent doesn’t mean mean thatthat we know we know exactly exactly howhow it’s going it’s going to unfold, to unfold, or when. or when. Perhaps Perhaps “WTF?” “WTF?” really really stands stands for “What’s for “What’s the Future?” the Future?” Where Where is techis technology nology taking taking us? Is us?it Is going it going to fill tous fillwith us with astonishment astonishment or dismay? or dismay? AndAnd mostmost important, important, whatwhat is our is our role role in deciding in deciding thatthat future? future? HowHow do we do we make make choices choices today today thatthat will will result result in a in world a world we want we want to live to live in? in?

I’ve I’ve spent spent my ca m ference ference producer, produca company, company, O’Reilly O’R and and by spreading by spreadik speed speed theirtheir adoptio ado ure ure to understand to underst or society or society is leadi is le watched watched numerou nume go from go from seemingly seemi ogiesogies thatthat no one no ot If allIfyou all you readrea ar howhow highly highly investo inv technologies technologies really re billion, billion, moremore thant lion,lion, moremore thantha H hugehuge numbers numbers can cesscess already already achiev ac self-selfsustaining, sustaining rat thatthat it is ithere is here to st billion billion every every yearye i thatthat dwarfs dwarfs the loss the overover its first its first five fiv ye losing losing money money like liA company company thatthat trant ing, ing, or like or like a dota dc siasm siasm of itsofinvesto its inv of work, of work, or a or sign a sio dot-dotcomcom bustbust in 20i Startups Startups withwa ablyably get get a lota of lota unicorn, unicorn, the the termte keeping keeping a lista of listcoo site site TechCrunch TechCrunch ha But But eveneven when w guide guide to the to the futurfu

nce program, program, beatbeat as t was widely widely pre-preiluntil it happened it happened y, hatwhat else else might might An AI running AI running on on Force e fighter fighter pilotpilot edge t hedge fundfund has has hs urths of manageof manageord University University re- res,cluding including many many chines machines within within

by eplacing replacing them them eating , creating millions millions ventually ually replacing replacing dhicles. vehicles. has moremore rooms rooms on on Airbnb ld. Airbnb has unhas unorms w forms of corpoof corpod best on best practices practices sders. leaders. ed he the outcome outcome of of

eople e people veryvery rich,rich, first the first time, time, chil-chilnthan theirtheir parents. parents. and es, and income income in- innd lear, clear, thatthat we’rewe’re my. onomy. gbetovery be very differdiffernfold, to unfold, or when. or when. Where e?” Where is techis techor entdismay? or dismay? AndAnd uture? e? HowHow do we do we ntlive to live in? in?

INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION • xi • xi

I’ve I’ve spent spent my career my career as a as technology a technology evangelist, evangelist, bookbook publisher, publisher, con-conference ference producer, producer, and and investor investor wrestling wrestling withwith questions questions like like these. these. My My company, company, O’Reilly O’Reilly Media, Media, works works to identify to identify important important innovations, innovations, and and by spreading by spreading knowledge knowledge about about them, them, to amplify to amplify theirtheir impact impact and and speed speed theirtheir adoption. adoption. AndAnd we’ve we’ve triedtried to sound to sound a warning a warning when when a faila failure ure to understand to understand howhow technology technology is changing is changing the the rulesrules for business for business or society or society is leading is leading us down us down the the wrong wrong path.path. In the In the process, process, we’ve we’ve watched watched numerous numerous technology technology booms booms and and busts, busts, and and seenseen companies companies go from go from seemingly seemingly unstoppable unstoppable to irrelevant, to irrelevant, while while earlyearlystagestage technoltechnologiesogies thatthat no one no one tooktook seriously seriously wentwent on to onchange to change the world. the world. If allIfyou all you readread are the areheadlines, the headlines, you you might might havehave the mistaken the mistaken ideaidea thatthat howhow highly highly investors investors valuevalue a company a company is the is key the key to understanding to understanding which which technologies technologies really really matter. matter. We We hearhear constantly constantly thatthat UberUber is “worth” is “worth” $68 $68 billion, billion, moremore thanthan General General Motors Motors or Ford; or Ford; Airbnb Airbnb is “worth” is “worth” $30 $30 bil- billion,lion, moremore thanthan Hilton Hilton Hotels Hotels and and almost almost as much as much as Marriott. as Marriott. Those Those hugehuge numbers numbers can can make make the companies the companies seemseem inevitable, inevitable, withwith theirtheir suc-successcess already already achieved. achieved. But But it is itonly is only when when a business a business becomes becomes profitably profitably self-selfsustaining, sustaining, rather rather thanthan subsidized subsidized by investors, by investors, thatthat we can we can be sure be sure thatthat it is ithere is here to stay. to stay. After After all, after all, after eighteight yearsyears UberUber is still is still losing losing $2 $2 billion billion every every yearyear in itsinrace its race to get to to getworldwide to worldwide scale. scale. That’s That’s an amount an amount thatthat dwarfs dwarfs the losses the losses of companies of companies like like Amazon Amazon (which (which lost lost $2.9$2.9 billion billion overover its first its first five five yearsyears before before showing showing its first its first profits profits in 2001). in 2001). Is Uber Is Uber losing losing money money like like Amazon, Amazon, which which wentwent on toonbecome to become a hugely a hugely successful successful company company thatthat transformed transformed retailing, retailing, publishing, publishing, and and enterprise enterprise computcomputing, ing, or like or like a dota dotcomcom company company thatthat was was destined destined to fail? to fail? Is the Is enthuthe enthusiasm siasm of itsofinvestors its investors a sign a sign of a of fundamental a fundamental restructuring restructuring of the of nature the nature of work, of work, or a or sign a sign of anofinvestment an investment mania mania like like the one the one leading leading up toupthe to the dot-dotcomcom bustbust in 2001? in 2001? HowHow do we dotell we the tell difference? the difference? Startups Startups withwith a valuation a valuation of more of more thanthan a billion a billion dollars dollars understandunderstandablyably get get a lota of lotattention, of attention, eveneven moremore so now so now thatthat theythey havehave a name, a name, unicorn, unicorn, the the termterm du jour du jour in Silicon in Silicon Valley. Valley. Fortune Fortune magazine magazine started started keeping keeping a lista of listcompanies of companies withwith thatthat exalted exalted status. status. Silicon Silicon Valley Valley newsnews site site TechCrunch TechCrunch has has a constantly a constantly updated updated “Unicorn “Unicorn Leaderboard.” Leaderboard.” But But eveneven when when these these companies companies succeed, succeed, theythey maymay not be notthe be surest the surest guide guide to the to the future. future. At O’Reilly At O’Reilly Media, Media, we learned we learned to tune to tune in toinvery to very

xii •xiiINTRODUCTION • INTRODUCTION

different different signals signals by watching by watching the the innovators innovators whowho firstfirst brought brought us the us the Internet Internet and and the the openopen source source software software thatthat made made it possible. it possible. They They did did whatwhat theythey did did out out of love of love and and curiosity, curiosity, not not a desire a desire to make to make a fortune. a fortune. We We saw saw thatthat radically radically newnew industries industries don’tdon’t startstart when when creative creative entrepreentrepreneurs neurs meetmeet venture venture capitalists. capitalists. They They startstart withwith people people whowho are infatuare infatuatedated withwith seemingly seemingly impossible impossible futures. futures. Those Those whowho change change the the world world are are people people whowho are are chasing chasing a very a very different different kindkind of unicorn, of unicorn, far more far more important important thanthan the the Silicon Silicon Valley Valley billionbilliondollar dollar valuation valuation (though (though some some of them of them willwill achieve achieve thatthat too).too). It It is the is breakthrough, the breakthrough, onceonce remarkable, remarkable, thatthat becomes becomes so ubiquitous so ubiquitous thatthat eventually eventually it is ittaken is taken for granted. for granted. TomTom Stoppard Stoppard wrote wrote eloquently eloquently about about a unicorn a unicorn of this of this sort sort in his in his playplay Rosencrantz Rosencrantz & Guildenstern & Guildenstern Are Dead: Are Dead: A man A man breaking breaking his journey his journey between between one one placeplace and and another another at at a third a third placeplace of no of name, no name, character, character, population population or significance, or significance, seessees a unicorn a unicorn crosscross his path his path and and disappear. disappear. . . . “My . . . “My God,” God,” sayssays a a second second man,man, “I must “I must be dreaming, be dreaming, I thought I thought I saw I saw a unicorn.” a unicorn.” At At which which point, point, a dimension a dimension is added is added thatthat makes makes the the experience experience as as alarming alarming as itas will it will everever be. A be.third A third witness, witness, you you understand, understand, addsadds no further no further dimension dimension but but onlyonly spreads spreads it thinner, it thinner, and and a fourth a fourth thinner thinner still,still, and and the more the more witnesses witnesses therethere are the are thinner the thinner it gets it gets and and the the moremore reasonable reasonable it becomes it becomes untiluntil it is itasisthin as thin as reality, as reality, the name the name we give we give to the to common the common experience. experience. TheThe world world today today is full is full of things of things thatthat onceonce made made us say us “WTF?” say “WTF?” but but are already are already wellwell on their on their wayway to being to being the stuff the stuff of daily of daily life.life. TheThe Linux Linux operating operating system system was was a unicorn. a unicorn. It seemed It seemed downright downright impossible impossible thatthat a decentralized a decentralized community community of programmers of programmers could could build build a worlda worldclassclass operating operating system system and and givegive it away it away for free. for free. NowNow billions billions of people of people rely rely on it. on it. TheThe World World Wide Wide WebWeb was was a unicorn, a unicorn, eveneven though though it didn’t it didn’t make make TimTim BernersBernersLee Lee a billionaire. a billionaire. I remember I remember showing showing the the World World Wide Wide WebWeb at a at technology a technology conference conference in 1993, in 1993, clicking clicking on aon link, a link, and and saying, saying, “That “That picture picture just just came came overover the Internet the Internet all the all way the way fromfrom the University the University

of Hawaii.” of Hawaii.” People Pe NowNow everyone everyone exp at any at any time. time. Google Google Maps Ma one one old old manman shows followed followed us along us alo was was amazed. amazed. Most M exactly exactly where where we a exactly exactly to our to our dest footfoot — but — but alsoalso can friends friends where where we a TheThe original origin iP the the AppApp Store Store ay ket. ket. Once Once you you exp screen screen rather rather thant inal inal pre-presmartpho smart cessors, cessors, the the teleph te We We forget forget quickly qui innovation innovation increas inc AI-powered AI-powere pe Google Google Assistant, Assista too too are unicorns, are unicorb kinds kinds of apps of apps thatt CanCan you you still str get the get the answer answer to or that or that youryour phone ph was,was, before before you you sta move move fromfrom taking tak workwork quitequite right? righ We We are layerin are lay the ordinary. the ordinary. A wh A summoning summoning carsca o thing thing fromfrom Amaz Am talking talking to AIto base AIto get to results. get results.

brought rst brought us the us the sible. possible. They They did did make to make a fortune. a fortune. native creative entrepreentreprewho ple who are infatuare infatu-

are chasing chasing a very a very the Silicon Silicon Valley Valley chieve ve thatthat too).too). It It ubiquitous so ubiquitous thatthat

this of this sort sort in his in his

d and another another at at significance, or significance, My God,” God,” sayssays a a w unicorn.” a unicorn.” At At he xperience experience as as rstand, nderstand, addsadds er, nd and a fourth a fourth einner thinner it gets it gets snthin as reality, as reality,

us y “WTF?” say “WTF?” but but ife. ily life. med seemed downright downright rogrammers ammers could could way for free. for free. NowNow

ugh it didn’t it didn’t make make ge the World World Wide Wide nk, a link, and and saying, saying, rom the University the University

INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION • xiii• xiii

of Hawaii.” of Hawaii.” People People didn’t didn’t believe believe it. They it. They thought thought we were we were making making it up.it up. NowNow everyone everyone expects expects thatthat you you can can clickclick on aon link a link to find to find out anything out anything at any at any time. time. Google Google Maps Maps was was a unicorn. a unicorn. On On the the bus bus not not longlong ago,ago, I watched I watched one one old old manman showshow another another howhow the the littlelittle blueblue dot dot in Google in Google Maps Maps followed followed us along us along as the as the bus bus moved. moved. TheThe newcomer newcomer to the to the technology technology was was amazed. amazed. Most Most of usofnow us now taketake it forit granted for granted thatthat our our phones phones know know exactly exactly where where we are, we are, and and not not onlyonly can can givegive us turnus turnby-turn by-turn directions directions exactly exactly to our to our destination destination — by—car, by car, by public by public transit, transit, by bicycle, by bicycle, and and on on footfoot — but — but alsoalso can can findfind restaurants restaurants or gas or stations gas stations nearby nearby or notify or notify our our friends friends where where we are we in arereal in real time. time. TheThe original original iPhone iPhone was was a unicorn a unicorn eveneven before before the the introduction introduction of of the the AppApp Store Store a year a year laterlater utterly utterly transformed transformed the the smartphone smartphone mar-market. ket. Once Once you you experienced experienced the the simplicity simplicity of swiping of swiping and and touching touching the the screen screen rather rather thanthan a tiny a tiny keyboard, keyboard, therethere was was no going no going back. back. TheThe orig-original inal pre-presmartphone smartphone cell cell phone phone itselfitself was was a unicorn. a unicorn. As were As were its predeits predecessors, cessors, the the telephone telephone and and telegraph, telegraph, radio radio and and television. television. We We forget. forget. We We forget forget quickly. quickly. AndAnd we forget we forget everever moremore quickly quickly as the as the pacepace of of innovation innovation increases. increases. AI-powered AI-powered personal personal agents agents like like Amazon’s Amazon’s Alexa, Alexa, Apple’s Apple’s Siri,Siri, the the Google Google Assistant, Assistant, and and Microsoft Microsoft Cortana Cortana are unicorns. are unicorns. UberUber and and LyftLyft too too are unicorns, are unicorns, but but not not because because of their of their valuation. valuation. Unicorns Unicorns are the are the kinds kinds of apps of apps thatthat make make us say, us say, “WTF?” “WTF?” in a in good a good way.way. CanCan you you still still remember remember the the firstfirst timetime you you realized realized thatthat you you could could get the get the answer answer to virtually to virtually any any question question withwith a quick a quick Internet Internet search, search, or that or that youryour phone phone could could routeroute you you to any to any destination? destination? HowHow coolcool thatthat was,was, before before you you started started taking taking it forit granted? for granted? AndAnd howhow quickly quickly did you did you move move fromfrom taking taking it foritgranted for granted to complaining to complaining about about it when it when it doesn’t it doesn’t workwork quitequite right? right? We We are layering are layering on new on new kinds kinds of magic of magic thatthat are slowly are slowly fading fading intointo the ordinary. the ordinary. A whole A whole generation generation is growing is growing up that up that thinks thinks nothing nothing of of summoning summoning carscars or groceries or groceries withwith a smartphone a smartphone app,app, or buying or buying somesomething thing fromfrom Amazon Amazon and and having having it show it show up in upaincouple a couple of hours, of hours, or or talking talking to AIto based AI-based personal personal assistants assistants on their on their devices devices and and expecting expecting to get to results. get results.

xiv •xivINTRODUCTION • INTRODUCTION

It isItthis is this kindkind of unicorn of unicorn thatthat I’ve I’ve spent spent my my career career in technology in technology pursuing. pursuing. So what So what makes makes a real a real unicorn unicorn of this of this amazing amazing kind? kind? 1. It 1. seems It seems unbelievable unbelievable at first. at first. 2. It 2.changes It changes the way the way the world the world works. works. 3. It 3.results It results in aninecosystem an ecosystem of new of new services, services, jobs,jobs, business business

models, models, and and industries. industries. We’ve We’ve talked talked about about the the “at first “at first unbelievable” unbelievable” part.part. What What about about changing changing the the world? world? In Who In Who Do You Do You Want Want YourYour Customers Customers to Become? to Become? Michael Michael Schrage Schrage writes: writes: Successful Successful innovators innovators don’tdon’t ask customers ask customers and and clients clients to dotosomedo something thing different; different; theythey ask ask themthem to become to become someone someone different. different. ... ... Successful Successful innovators innovators ask users ask users to embrace to embrace —or—atorleast at least tolerate tolerate — — newnew values, values, newnew skills, skills, newnew behaviors, behaviors, newnew vocabulary, vocabulary, newnew ideas, ideas, newnew expectations, expectations, and and newnew aspirations. aspirations. They They transform transform theirtheir cus-customers. tomers.

datadata centers. centers. ThoT digital digital infrastructu infrastr For For Google Google to locallocal supermarket, supermar a particular a particular locatio lo context. context. For For Siri Si to thatthat Camino Camino is a i and and it must it must allow al can can lay claim lay claim to a service service like like OpenT Op my devices my devices or inorth notify notify friends, friends, so t timetime to leave to leave for ou fo AndAnd thenthen ther warnings: warnings:

“Leave “Leave nownow to Bay Bay Bridge. Bri or or

For For example, example, Schrage Schrage points points out out thatthat Apple Apple (and(and nownow alsoalso Google Google and and Microsoft Microsoft and and Amazon) Amazon) asksasks theirtheir “customers “customers to become to become the the sort sort of people of people whowho wouldn’t wouldn’t think think twice twice about about talking talking to their to their phone phone as a as a sentient sentient servant.” servant.” SureSure enough, enough, therethere is a is new a new generation generation of users of users whowho think think nothing nothing of saying of saying things things like:like: “Siri, “Siri, make make me ame sixa p.m. six p.m. reservation reservation for two for two at Camino.” at Camino.” “Alexa, “Alexa, playplay ‘Ballad ‘Ballad of a of Thin a Thin Man.’ Man.’ ” ” “Okay, “Okay, Google, Google, remind remind me to mebuy to buy currants currants the the nextnext timetime I’m I’m at at Piedmont Piedmont Grocery.” Grocery.” Correctly Correctly recognizing recognizing human human speech speech alone alone is hard, is hard, but listening but listening and and thenthen performing performing complex complex actions actions in response— in response— for millions for millions of simultaof simultaneous neous users— users— requires requires incredible incredible computing computing power power provided provided by massive by massive

“There “There is traffi is tr

All of Allthese of these tech nectnect and and layerlayer on eao inglyingly magical. magical. Onc life without life without it is itliki These These services serv willwill increasingly increasingb wordword to many to many peo unicorn unicorn fromfrom the at intelligence intelligence or AI or sA far from far from thatthat evene direction. direction.

reer in technology in technology

nd?

usiness s, business

part. . What What about about mers stomers to Become? to Become?

ents to dotosomedo somedifferent. ne different. ... ... stleast tolerate tolerate — — ulary, y, newnew ideas, ideas, m sform theirtheir cus-cus-

dwnow alsoalso Google Google to ecome become the the sort sort heir o their phone phone as a as a nation of users of users whowho

Camino.” ino.”

next timetime I’m I’m at at

ut d, listening but listening and and millions ons of simultaof simultaded rovided by massive by massive

INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION • xv• xv

datadata centers. centers. Those Those datadata centers centers support support an everan evermoremoresophisticated sophisticated digital digital infrastructure. infrastructure. For For Google Google to remind to remind me to mebuy to buy currants currants the the nextnext timetime I’m I’m at my at my locallocal supermarket, supermarket, it has it has to know to know where where I amI at amallattimes, all times, keepkeep tracktrack of of a particular a particular location location I’ve I’ve asked asked for, for, and and bring bring up the up the reminder reminder in that in that context. context. For For Siri Siri to make to make me ame reservation a reservation at Camino, at Camino, it needs it needs to know to know thatthat Camino Camino is a isrestaurant a restaurant in Oakland, in Oakland, and and thatthat it isitopen is open tonight, tonight, and and it must it must allow allow conversations conversations between between machines, machines, so that so that my phone my phone can can lay claim lay claim to atotable a table fromfrom the the restaurant’s restaurant’s reservation reservation system system via avia a service service like like OpenTable. OpenTable. AndAnd thenthen it may it may call call other other services, services, either either on on my devices my devices or inorthe in cloud, the cloud, to add to add the reservation the reservation to my to calendar my calendar or toor to notify notify friends, friends, so that so that yet another yet another agent agent can can remind remind all ofallusofwhen us when it is it is timetime to leave to leave for our for our dinner dinner date.date. AndAnd thenthen therethere are are the the alerts alerts thatthat I didn’t I didn’t ask ask for, for, like like Google’s Google’s warnings: warnings: “Leave “Leave nownow to get to to getthe to airport the airport on time. on time. 25 minute 25 minute delay delay on the on the Bay Bay Bridge.” Bridge.” or or “There “There is traffic is traffic ahead. ahead. Faster Faster routeroute available.” available.” All of Allthese of these technologies technologies are additive, are additive, and and addictive. addictive. As they As they interconinterconnectnect and and layerlayer on each on each other, other, theythey become become increasingly increasingly powerful, powerful, increasincreasinglyingly magical. magical. Once Once you you become become accustomed accustomed to each to each newnew superpower, superpower, life without life without it is itlike is like having having youryour magic magic wand wand turnturn intointo a stick a stick again. again. These These services services havehave beenbeen created created by human by human programmers, programmers, but but theythey willwill increasingly increasingly be enabled be enabled by artificial by artificial intelligence. intelligence. That’s That’s a scary a scary wordword to many to many people. people. But But it is itthe is the nextnext stepstep in the in the progression progression of the of the unicorn unicorn fromfrom the astonishing the astonishing to the to ordinary. the ordinary. While While the term the term artiﬁcial artiﬁcial intelligence intelligence or AI or suggests AI suggests a truly a truly autonomous autonomous intelligence, intelligence, we are we far, are far, far from far from thatthat eventuality. eventuality. AI is AIstill is still just just a tool, a tool, still still subject subject to human to human direction. direction.

xvi •xviINTRODUCTION • INTRODUCTION

TheThe nature nature of that of that direction, direction, and and howhow we must we must exercise exercise it, isit,a is key a key subject subject of this of this book. book. AI and AI and other other unicorn unicorn technologies technologies havehave the potenthe potential to tialmake to make a better a better world, world, in the in same the same wayway thatthat the technologies the technologies of the of the firstfirst industrial industrial revolution revolution created created wealth wealth for society for society thatthat was was unimagunimaginable inable twotwo centuries centuries ago.ago. AI bears AI bears the the samesame relationship relationship to previous to previous programming programming techniques techniques thatthat the the internal internal combustion combustion engine engine doesdoes to to the the steam steam engine. engine. It isItfaris more far more versatile versatile and and powerful, powerful, and and overover timetime we will we will findfind everever moremore usesuses for it. for it. WillWill we use we use it toitmake to make a better a better world? world? Or will Or will we use we use it toitamto amplifyplify the worst the worst features features of today’s of today’s world? world? So far, So the far, “WTF?” the “WTF?” of dismay of dismay seems seems to have to have the upper the upper hand. hand. “Everything “Everything is amazing,” is amazing,” and and yet we yet are we deeply are deeply afraid. afraid. SixtySixtythree three percent percent of Americans of Americans believe believe jobsjobs are less are less secure secure nownow thanthan theythey werewere twenty twenty to thirty to thirty yearsyears ago.ago. By aBytwoa twoto-one to-one ratio, ratio, people people think think goodgood jobsjobs are are difficult difficult to find to find where where theythey live.live. AndAnd many many of them of them blame blame technology. technology. There There is a constant is a constant drumbeat drumbeat of news of news thatthat tellstells us that us that the the future future is one is one in which in which increasingly increasingly intelligent intelligent machines machines willwill taketake overover moremore and and moremore human human work. work. TheThe painpain is already is already being being felt.felt. For For the the firstfirst time, time, life life expectancy expectancy is actually is actually declining declining in America in America , and , and whatwhat was was onceonce its rich its rich industrial industrial heartland heartland has has too often too often become become a landscape a landscape of despair. of despair. For For everyone’s everyone’s sake,sake, we must we must choose choose a different a different path.path. LossLoss of jobs of jobs and and economic economic disruption disruption are not are not inevitable. inevitable. There There is a is a profound profound failure failure of imagination of imagination and and will will in much in much of today’s of today’s economy. economy. For For every every ElonElon Musk— Musk— whowho wants wants to reinvent to reinvent the world’s the world’s energy energy infrainfrastructure, structure, buildbuild revolutionary revolutionary newnew forms forms of transport, of transport, and and settle settle humans humans on Mars— on Mars— therethere are far aretoo far many too many companies companies thatthat are simply are simply using using tech-technology nology to cut to costs cut costs and and boost boost theirtheir stockstock price, price, enriching enriching those those ableable to to invest invest in financial in financial markets markets at the at expense the expense of anofeveran evergrowing growing group group thatthat maymay never never be able be able to do toso. do Policy so. Policy makers makers seemseem helpless, helpless, assuming assuming thatthat the the course course of technology of technology is inevitable, is inevitable, rather rather thanthan something something we must we must shape. shape. AndAnd thatthat getsgets me to methe to third the third characteristic characteristic of true of true unicorns: unicorns: They They create create value. value. Not Not just just ﬁnancial ﬁnancial value, value, but realbut realworld world value value for society. for society. Consider Consider pastpast marvels. marvels. Could Could we have we have moved moved goods goods as easily as easily or asor as

quickly quickly without withou mo through through mountain moun chines chines made made it pos it for afor tiny a tiny fraction fracto rest rest of usofeat, us eat, and a modern modern world world the Technology Technology is painpain and and dislocatio disloc sible.sible. History History tellst We We willwill findfind thing th accomplish accomplish withwith Take, Take, for exam for ex out out hugehuge CokeCoke bo a surgeon a surgeon whowho wo aid of aida of robot, a robot, who beenbeen impossible. impossib After After moremore tha legally legally blind blind witho w to myself to myself for mont for m But But in order in orde to ended ended up relying up rely on my on cornea my cornea with actual actual surgery, surgery, apa surface surface of my of corn my was was done, done, her job her w suring suring words, words, and the red the light. red light. I askI stay stay focused focused on th on firesfires when when youryou ey Surgery Surgery this thi so human human being. being. TheT superhuman superhuman accur ac bridbrid freeing freeing me fro me in Italy. in Italy. TheThe revolu re going going to make to make man

exercise cise it, isit,a is key a key have ies have the potenthe potentechnologies nologies of the of the tthat was was unimagunimaghip onship to previous to previous ion engine engine doesdoes to to ful, and and overover timetime

l use we use it toitamto amTF?” WTF?” of dismay of dismay

afraid. id. SixtySixtythree three ow hanthan theythey werewere ple people think think goodgood of nythem of them blame blame hat ellstells us that us that the the ines willwill taketake overover being g felt.felt. For For the the America rica, and , and whatwhat me ecome a landscape a landscape

path. . evitable. ble. There There is a is a day’s f today’s economy. economy. orld’s s energy energy infrainfrad and settle settle humans humans ply simply using using tech-techching g those those ableable to to wing growing group group thatthat less, assuming assuming thatthat omething thing we must we must

unicorns: ue unicorns: They They alue for society. for society. oods as easily as easily or asor as

INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION • xvii • xvii

quickly quickly without without modern modern earthmoving earthmoving equipment equipment letting letting us bore us bore tunnels tunnels through through mountains mountains or under or under cities? cities? TheThe superpower superpower of humans of humans + ma+ machines chines made made it possible it possible to build to build citiescities housing housing tenstens of millions of millions of people, of people, for afor tiny a tiny fraction fraction of our of our people people to work to work producing producing the food the food thatthat all the all the rest rest of usofeat, us eat, and and to create to create a host a host of other of other wonders wonders thatthat havehave made made the the modern modern world world the most the most prosperous prosperous timetime in human in human history. history. Technology Technology is going is going to take to take our our jobs!jobs! Yes.Yes. It always It always has,has, and and the the painpain and and dislocation dislocation are real. are real. But But it is it going is going to make to make newnew kindskinds of jobs of jobs pos-possible.sible. History History tellstells us technology us technology killskills professions, professions, but does but does not kill not kill jobs.jobs. We We willwill findfind things things to work to work on that on that we couldn’t we couldn’t do before do before but now but now can can accomplish accomplish withwith the help the help of today’s of today’s amazing amazing technologies. technologies. Take, Take, for example, for example, laserlaser eye surgery. eye surgery. I used I used to betolegally be legally blind blind withwithout out hugehuge CokeCokebottle bottle glasses. glasses. Twelve Twelve yearsyears ago,ago, my eyes my eyes werewere fixedfixed by by a surgeon a surgeon whowho would would never never havehave beenbeen ableable to do to the do the job job without without the the aid of aida of robot, a robot, whowho was was nownow ableable to do tosomething do something thatthat had had previously previously beenbeen impossible. impossible. After After moremore thanthan fortyforty yearsyears of wearing of wearing glasses glasses so strong so strong thatthat I was I was legally legally blind blind without without them, them, I could I could see clearly see clearly on my on own. my own. I kept I kept saying saying to myself to myself for months for months afterward, afterward, “I’m“I’m seeing seeing withwith my own my own eyes!” eyes!” But But in order in order to remove to remove my need my need for prosthetic for prosthetic vision, vision, the the surgeon surgeon ended ended up relying up relying on prosthetics on prosthetics of her of her own,own, performing performing the the surgery surgery on my on cornea my cornea withwith the the aid of aida of computera computercontrolled controlled laser.laser. During During the the actual actual surgery, surgery, apart apart fromfrom lifting lifting the the ﬂap ﬂap she she had had cut cut by hand by hand in the in the surface surface of my of cornea my cornea and and smoothing smoothing it back it back intointo placeplace afterafter the the laserlaser was was done, done, her job her was job was to clamp to clamp openopen my eyes, my eyes, holdhold my head, my head, utterutter reas-reassuring suring words, words, and and tell me, tell me, sometimes sometimes withwith urgency, urgency, to keep to keep looking looking at at the red the light. red light. I asked I asked whatwhat would would happen happen if myif eyes my eyes drifted drifted and and I didn’t I didn’t stay stay focused focused on the on the light. light. “Oh,“Oh, the the laserlaser would would stop,” stop,” she she said.said. “It only “It only firesfires when when youryour eyeseyes are tracking are tracking the dot.” the dot.” Surgery Surgery this this sophisticated sophisticated could could never never be done be done by an by unaugmented an unaugmented human human being. being. TheThe human human touch touch of my of superb my superb doctor doctor was was paired paired withwith the the superhuman superhuman accuracy accuracy of complex of complex machines, machines, a twentya twentyfirst-firstcentury century hy- hybridbrid freeing freeing me from me from assistive assistive devices devices firstfirst invented invented eighteight centuries centuries earlier earlier in Italy. in Italy. TheThe revolution revolution in sensors, in sensors, computers, computers, and and control control technologies technologies is is going going to make to make many many of the of daily the daily activities activities of the of twentieth the twentieth century century seemseem

xviii xviii • INTRODUCTION • INTRODUCTION

quaint quaint as, one as, one by one, by one, theythey are reinvented are reinvented in the in twentythe twentyfirst.first. ThisThis is the is the truetrue opportunity opportunity of technology: of technology: It extends It extends human human capability. capability. In the In the debate debate about about technology technology and and the the shape shape of the of the future, future, it’s it’s easyeasy to forget to forget just just howhow much much technology technology already already suffuses suffuses our our lives, lives, howhow much much it has it has already already changed changed us. As us. we As get we get pastpast thatthat moment moment of amazement, of amazement, and and it fades it fades intointo the the newnew normal, normal, we must we must put put techtechnology nology to work to work solving solving newnew problems. problems. We We mustmust commit commit to building to building something something new,new, strange strange to our to our pastpast selves, selves, but but better, better, if weif commit we commit to to making making it so.it so. We We must must keep keep asking: asking: What What will will newnew technology technology let us letdo usthat do that waswas previously previously impossible? impossible? WillWill it help it help us build us build the the kindkind of of society society we want we want to live to live in? in?

ThisThis is the is the secret secret to reinventing to reinventing the the economy. economy. As Google As Google chiefchief economist economist HalHal Varian Varian saidsaid to me, to me, “My“My grandfather grandfather wouldn’t wouldn’t recognize recognize whatwhat I doIasdowork.” as work.” What What are are the the newnew jobsjobs of the of the twentytwentyfirstfirst century? century? Augmented Augmented reality— reality— the the overlay overlay of computerof computergenerated generated datadata and and images images on what on what we see— we see— maymay givegive us a us clue. a clue. It definitely It definitely meets meets the WTF? the WTF? test.test. TheThe firstfirst timetime a venture a venture capitalist capitalist friend friend of mine of mine saw saw one one unreleased unreleased augmented augmented reality reality platform platform in the in lab, the lab, he said, he said, “If LSD “If LSD werewere a stock, a stock, I’d be I’dshortbe shorting it.” ing That’s it.” That’s a unicorn. a unicorn. But But whatwhat is most is most exciting exciting to me to me about about this this technology technology is not is not the the LSDLSD factor, factor, but but howhow augmented augmented reality reality can can change change the the wayway we work. we work. YouYou can can imagine imagine howhow augmented augmented reality reality could could enable enable workers workers to be to be “upskilled.” “upskilled.” I’m I’m particularly particularly fondfond of imagining of imagining howhow the the model model usedused by by Partners Partners in Health in Health could could be turbocharged be turbocharged by augmented by augmented reality reality and and telepresence. telepresence. TheThe organization organization provides provides free free healthcare healthcare to people to people in in poverty poverty using using a model a model in which in which community community health health workers workers recruited recruited fromfrom the population the population being being served served are trained are trained and and supported supported in providin providing ing primary primary care.care. Doctors Doctors can can be brought be brought in asinneeded, as needed, but but the the bulkbulk of care of care is provided is provided by ordinary by ordinary people. people. Imagine Imagine a community a community health health worker worker whowho is able is able to tap to tap on Google on Google Glass Glass or some or some nextnextgeneration generation wearable, wearable, and and say, say, “Doctor, “Doctor, you you needneed to see to this!” see this!” (Trust (Trust me. me. Glass Glass willwill

be back, be back, when when Go not not fashion fashion model mo It’s It’s easyeasy to im to along along these these lineslin co patient patient satisfaction satisfac intointo fashion. fashion. AddA vicevice fromfrom an AI an m A Microsoft Microsoft Cortana Cor startstart to see to the see out the brought brought to ustobyusteb ThisThis is only is only on activities, activities, creating crea fadefade intointo the textu the te suchsuch as airplanes as airplan a and and washing washing mach m

Despite Despite theirtheir possip withwith unknown unknown risk is always is always before befor me Roman Roman Empire Empire wa Revolution. Revolution. Despi D unknowable unknowable fusion fu history history as we as kno we nations, nations, not not just ju c Technology Technology can ca g make make monumental monume sandsand years. years. It could It c We We are increas are inc problems problems thatthat are plete, plete, contradictor contradi to recognize.” to recognize.” Even Even longlong acc downsides. downsides. TheTh au

first. ty-first. ThisThis is the is the pability. ity. the of the future, future, it’s it’s suffuses uses our our lives, lives, past thatthat moment moment must we must put put techtechmit ommit to building to building er,weif commit we commit to to

tyus letdo usthat do that

the kindkind of of

Google As Google chiefchief wouldn’t ldn’t recognize recognize

ntury? y? Augmented Augmented mages d images on what on what ?TF? test.test. TheThe firstfirst sed eleased augmented augmented stock, k, I’d be I’dshortbe short-

hnology ogy is not is not the the the wayway we work. we work. able workers workers to be to be the model model usedused by by mented ted reality reality and and hcare e to people to people in in rkers workers recruited recruited rted pported in providin providd, eded, but but the the bulkbulk community munity health health me extnextgeneration generation rust me. me. Glass Glass willwill

INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION • xix• xix

be back, be back, when when Google Google learns learns to focus to focus on community on community health health workers, workers, not not fashion fashion models.) models.) It’s It’s easyeasy to imagine to imagine howhow rethinking rethinking our our entire entire healthcare healthcare system system along along these these lineslines could could reduce reduce costs, costs, improve improve bothboth health health outcomes outcomes and and patient patient satisfaction, satisfaction, and and create create jobsjobs . Imagine . Imagine house house callscalls coming coming backback intointo fashion. fashion. AddAdd in health in health monitoring monitoring by wearable by wearable sensors sensors , health , health ad- advicevice fromfrom an AI an made AI made as available as available as Siri, as Siri, the the Google Google Assistant, Assistant, or or Microsoft Microsoft Cortana, Cortana, plusplus an Uberan Uberstylestyle on-demand on-demand service, service, and and you you can can startstart to see to the see outlines the outlines of one of one small small segment segment of the of next the next economy economy being being brought brought to ustobyustechnology. by technology. ThisThis is only is only one one example example of how of how we might we might reinvent reinvent familiar familiar human human activities, activities, creating creating newnew marvels marvels that,that, if we if are we are lucky, lucky, willwill eventually eventually fadefade intointo the texture the texture of everyday of everyday life,life, just just like like wonders wonders of a of previous a previous age age suchsuch as airplanes as airplanes and and skyscrapers, skyscrapers, elevators, elevators, automobiles, automobiles, refrigerators, refrigerators, and and washing washing machines. machines. • •• •• • Despite Despite theirtheir possible possible wonders, wonders, many many of the of futures the futures we face we face are fraught are fraught withwith unknown unknown risks. risks. I amI aam classicist a classicist by training, by training, and and the fall the of fallRome of Rome is always is always before before me. me. TheThe firstfirst volume volume of Gibbon’s of Gibbon’s Decline Decline and and FallFall of theof the Roman Roman Empire Empire was was published published in 1776, in 1776, the the samesame yearyear as the as the American American Revolution. Revolution. Despite Despite Silicon Silicon Valley’s Valley’s dreams dreams of a of future a future singularity, singularity, an an unknowable unknowable fusion fusion of minds of minds and and machines machines thatthat willwill mark mark the the end end of of history history as we as know we know it, what it, what history history teaches teaches us isusthat is that economies economies and and nations, nations, not not just just companies, companies, can can fail.fail. Great Great civilizations civilizations do collapse. do collapse. Technology Technology can can go backward. go backward. After After the the fall fall of Rome, of Rome, the the ability ability to to make make monumental monumental structures structures out of outconcrete of concrete was was lost lost for nearly for nearly a thoua thousandsand years. years. It could It could happen happen to us. to us. We We are increasingly are increasingly facing facing whatwhat planners planners call call “wicked “wicked problems”— problems”— problems problems thatthat are are “difficult “difficult or impossible or impossible to solve to solve because because of incomof incomplete, plete, contradictory, contradictory, and and changing changing requirements requirements thatthat are often are often difficult difficult to recognize.” to recognize.” Even Even longlongaccepted accepted technologies technologies turnturn out out to have to have unforeseen unforeseen downsides. downsides. TheThe automobile automobile was was a unicorn. a unicorn. It afforded It afforded ordinary ordinary people people

xx •xxINTRODUCTION • INTRODUCTION

enormous enormous freedom freedom of movement, of movement, led led to an to infrastructure an infrastructure for transfor transporting porting goods goods thatthat spread spread prosperity, prosperity, and and enabled enabled a consumer a consumer econeconomyomy where where goods goods could could be produced be produced far away far away fromfrom where where theythey are are consumed. consumed. Yet Yet the the roads roads we built we built to enable to enable the the automobile automobile carved carved up up and and hollowed hollowed out out cities, cities, led to ledmore to more sedentary sedentary lifestyles, lifestyles, and and contribcontributeduted mightily mightily to the to the overpowering overpowering threat threat of climate of climate change. change. Ditto Ditto cheap cheap air travel, air travel, container container shipping, shipping, the the universal universal electric electric grid.grid. All All of these of these werewere enormous enormous engines engines of prosperity of prosperity thatthat brought brought withwith them them unintended unintended consequences consequences thatthat onlyonly came came to light to light overover many many decades decades of painful of painful experience, experience, by which by which timetime any any solution solution seems seems im- impossible possible to attempt to attempt because because the the disruption disruption required required to reverse to reverse course course would would be sobemassive. so massive. We We faceface a similar a similar set of setparadoxes of paradoxes today. today. TheThe magical magical technologies technologies of today— of today— and and choices choices we’ve we’ve already already made, made, decades decades ago,ago, about about whatwhat we we value value as aassociety— a society— are leading are leading us down us down a path a path withwith complex complex contincontingencies, gencies, unseen unseen dangers, dangers, and and decisions decisions thatthat we don’t we don’t eveneven know know we are we are making. making. AI and AI and robotics robotics in particular in particular are at arethe at heart the heart of a of setaof setwicked of wicked probproblemslems thatthat are setting are setting off alarm off alarm bellsbells among among business business and and laborlabor leaders, leaders, policy policy makers makers and and academics. academics. What What happens happens to all to those all those people people whowho drivedrive for afor living a living when when the the carscars startstart driving driving themselves? themselves? AIs AIs are ﬂyare ﬂying planes, ing planes, advising advising doctors doctors on the on best the best treatments, treatments, writing writing sports sports and and financial financial news, news, and and telling telling us all, us in all,real in real time, time, the fastest the fastest wayway to get to to get to work. work. They They are also are also telling telling human human workers workers when when to show to show up and up and when when to go to home, go home, based based on realon realtimetime measurement measurement of demand. of demand. Computers Computers usedused to work to work for humans; for humans; increasingly increasingly it’s now it’s now humans humans working working for for computers. computers. TheThe algorithm algorithm is the is new the new shiftshift boss.boss. What What is the is the future future of business of business when when technologytechnologyenabled enabled networks networks and and marketplaces marketplaces let people let people choose choose when when and and howhow much much theythey wantwant to to work? work? What What is the is future the future of education of education when when on-demand on-demand learning learning out-outperforms performs traditional traditional universities universities in keeping in keeping skills skills up to update? to date? What What is is the future the future of media of media and and public public discourse discourse when when algorithms algorithms decide decide whatwhat we will we will watch watch and and read,read, making making theirtheir choice choice based based on what on what willwill make make the most the most profit profit for their for their owners? owners? What What is the is the future future of the of the economy economy when when moremore and and moremore workwork can can

be done be done by intellig by inte ple in plepartnership in partners theirtheir families? families? An consumer consumer purchas purc There There are dire are dc to betoeliminated. be eliminate A 580 580 million million people pe economies— economies— had hi and and 2014. 2014. Between Betw thanthan 2%— 2%— had had the OverOver the past the pa f to reward to reward theirthe m treating treating ordinary ordin CEOs CEOs nownow earnea3 in 1980. in 1980. As aAs resul ar share share the the benefits bene gains, gains, the the gulfgul be mously, mously, and and the m th search search by Stanford by Stan in 1940, in 1940, the chanc the ch for children for children bornboi Businesses Businesses hav sumer sumer economy econom by household household debtdeb is GDP, GDP, in mid-2016 in mid-2 thanthan seven seven million mi transfers transfers to reduce to red omyomy actually actually delivd be paid be paid for throug for thr either either of which of which po is, ofis,course, of course, a reci a Meanwhile, Meanwhile in banks banks havehave pushed pus howhow this this will will unlou havehave reached reached highh

ture ructure for transfor transonsumer a consumer econeconwhere m where theythey are are omobile bile carved carved up up s, tyles, and and contribcontribnge. change. iversal universal electric electric yerity thatthat brought brought ight to light overover many many ion olution seems seems im- imdreverse to reverse course course

agical al technologies technologies ago, about about whatwhat we we omplex h complex contincontinneven know know we are we are

set f wicked of wicked probprobd and laborlabor leaders, leaders, se those people people whowho s? elves? AIs AIs are ﬂyare ﬂywriting ing sports sports and and astest t wayway to get to to get to wshow up and up and when when nd. mand. Computers Computers ns mans working working for for

abled -enabled networks networks much h theythey wantwant to to mand d learning learning out-outpdate? to date? What What is is ms ithms decide decide whatwhat what on what willwill make make

more nd more workwork can can

INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION • xxi• xxi

be done be done by intelligent by intelligent machines machines instead instead of people, of people, or only or only donedone by peoby people in plepartnership in partnership withwith those those machines? machines? What What happens happens to workers to workers and and theirtheir families? families? AndAnd whatwhat happens happens to the to the companies companies thatthat depend depend on on consumer consumer purchasing purchasing power power to buy to buy theirtheir products? products? There There are dire are dire consequences consequences to treating to treating human human laborlabor simply simply as a as cost a cost to betoeliminated. be eliminated. According According to the to the McKinsey McKinsey Global Global Institute, Institute, 540 540 to to 580 580 million million people—65 people—65 to 70% to 70% of households of households in twentyin twentyfive five advanced advanced economies— economies— had had incomes incomes thatthat had had fallen fallen or were or were ﬂat ﬂat between between 20052005 and and 2014. 2014. Between Between 19931993 and and 2005, 2005, fewer fewer thanthan 10 million 10 million people— people— less less thanthan 2%— 2%— had had the same the same experience. experience. OverOver the past the past few few decades, decades, companies companies havehave made made a deliberate a deliberate choice choice to reward to reward theirtheir management management and and “superstars” “superstars” incredibly incredibly well,well, while while treating treating ordinary ordinary workers workers as aascost a cost to be to minimized be minimized or cut. or cut. TopTop US US CEOs CEOs nownow earnearn 373x373x the the income income of the of the average average worker, worker, up from up from 42x 42x in 1980. in 1980. As aAs result a result of the of choices the choices we’ve we’ve made made as a as society a society about about howhow to to share share the the benefits benefits of economic of economic growth growth and and technological technological productivity productivity gains, gains, the the gulfgulf between between the the top top and and the the bottom bottom has has widened widened enorenormously, mously, and and the middle the middle has largely has largely disappeared. disappeared. Recently Recently published published re- research search by Stanford by Stanford economist economist Raj Raj Chetty Chetty shows shows thatthat for children for children bornborn in 1940, in 1940, the chance the chance thatthat they’d they’d earnearn moremore thanthan theirtheir parents parents was was 92%; 92%; for children for children bornborn in 1990, in 1990, thatthat chance chance has has fallen fallen to 50%. to 50%. Businesses Businesses havehave delayed delayed the the effects effects of declining of declining wages wages on the on the con-consumer sumer economy economy by encouraging by encouraging people people to borrow— to borrow— in the in United the United States, States, household household debtdebt is over is over $12 $12 trillion trillion (80% (80% of gross of gross domestic domestic product, product, or or GDP, GDP, in mid-2016) in mid-2016) and and student student debtdebt alone alone is $1.2 is $1.2 trillion trillion (with (with moremore thanthan seven seven million million borrowers borrowers in default in default ). We’ve ). We’ve alsoalso usedused government government transfers transfers to reduce to reduce the the gap gap between between human human needs needs and and whatwhat our our econeconomyomy actually actually delivers. delivers. But But of course, of course, higher higher government government transfers transfers mustmust be paid be paid for through for through higher higher taxestaxes or through or through higher higher government government debt,debt, either either of which of which political political gridlock gridlock has has made made unpalatable. unpalatable. ThisThis gridlock gridlock is, ofis,course, of course, a recipe a recipe for disaster. for disaster. Meanwhile, Meanwhile, in hopes in hopes thatthat “the“the market” market” will will deliver deliver jobs,jobs, central central banks banks havehave pushed pushed everever moremore money money intointo the system, the system, hoping hoping thatthat somesomehowhow this this will will unlock unlock business business investment. investment. But But instead, instead, corporate corporate profits profits havehave reached reached highs highs not not seenseen sincesince the the 1920s, 1920s, corporate corporate investment investment has has

xxii xxii • INTRODUCTION • INTRODUCTION

shrunk, shrunk, and and moremore thanthan $30 $30 trillion trillion of cash of cash is sitting is sitting on the on the sidelines. sidelines. TheThe magic magic of the of market the market is not is working. not working. We We are at area at very a very dangerous dangerous moment moment in history. in history. TheThe concentration concentration of wealth of wealth and and power power in the in hands the hands of a of global a global eliteelite is eroding is eroding the power the power and and sovereignty sovereignty of nationof nationstates states while while globeglobespanning spanning technology technology plat-platforms forms are enabling are enabling algorithmic algorithmic control control of firms, of firms, institutions, institutions, and and soci-societies, eties, shaping shaping whatwhat billions billions of people of people see and see and understand understand and and howhow the the economic economic pie is piedivided. is divided. At the At the samesame time, time, income income inequality inequality and and the the pacepace of technology of technology change change are leading are leading to a to populist a populist backlash backlash featuring featuring opposition opposition to science, to science, distrust distrust of our of our governing governing institutions, institutions, and and fear fear of of the future, the future, making making it ever it ever moremore difficult difficult to solve to solve the problems the problems we have we have created. created. ThatThat has has all the all hallmarks the hallmarks of a of classic a classic wicked wicked problem. problem. Wicked Wicked problems problems are are closely closely related related to an to idea an idea fromfrom evolutionary evolutionary biology, biology, thatthat therethere is a is “fitness a “fitness landscape” landscape” for any for any organism. organism. Much Much like like a physical a physical landscape, landscape, a fitness a fitness landscape landscape has has peaks peaks and and valleys. valleys. TheThe challenge challenge is that is that you you can can onlyonly get get fromfrom one one peak— peak— a soa called so-called locallocal maximum— maximum— to another to another by going by going backback down. down. In evolutionary In evolutionary biology, biology, a local a local maximum maximum maymay mean mean thatthat you you become become one one of the of the longlonglivedlived stable stable species, species, unchanged unchanged for millions for millions of years, of years, or itor may it may mean mean thatthat you you become become extinct extinct because because you’re you’re unable unable to respond to respond to changed to changed conditions. conditions. AndAnd in our in our economy, economy, conditions conditions are changing are changing rapidly. rapidly. OverOver the past the past few few decades, decades, the the digital digital revolution revolution has has transformed transformed media, media, entertainentertainment, ment, advertising, advertising, and and retail, retail, upending upending centuriescenturiesold old companies companies and and business business models. models. NowNow it is itrestructuring is restructuring every every business, business, every every job, job, and and every every sector sector of society. of society. No No company, company, no job— no job— and and ultimately, ultimately, no govno government ernment and and no economy— no economy— is immune is immune to disruption. to disruption. Computers Computers willwill manage manage our our money, money, supervise supervise our our children, children, and and havehave our our liveslives in their in their “hands” “hands” as they as they drivedrive our our automated automated cars.cars. TheThe biggest biggest changes changes are still are still ahead, ahead, and and every every industry industry and and every every organization organization willwill havehave to transform to transform itselfitself in the in next the next few few years, years, in mulin multipletiple ways, ways, or fade or fade away. away. We We needneed to ask to ask ourselves ourselves whether whether the the fun-fundamental damental social social safety safety netsnets of the of the developed developed world world willwill survive survive the the transition, transition, and and moremore important, important, whatwhat we will we will replace replace them them with. with. Andy Andy McAfee, McAfee, coauthor coauthor of The of The Second Second Machine Machine Age,Age, put his putfinger his finger on on

the consequence the consequenc of about about the risks the risks of A before before the machine the mac ThisThis bookbook provp the the role role of techno of tec the the role role of WTF? of WT lay out lay out the the difficu dif possibility possibility while whi c perity. perity. But But moremo im future, future, drawn drawn from observing observing and and pred TheThe bookbook is US i not not an overview an overvie of many many of which of which are differently differently in other in o Kinsey’s Kinsey’s Richard RichaD out out quitequite correctly corre forces forces shaping shaping the in longevity in longevity and an th in the inglobal the global popula po as large as large a role a role as tea catastrophic catastrophic war,wp are not are based not based on ao nology nology innovation innovat the rest; the rest; it is itsimpl is si experience, experience, which wh TheThe bookbook is div i of the of techniques the techniqu t dictdict innovation innovation wa the rise the rise of open of open so of the of web the web afterafte th big data, big data, the Make the M thatthat understandin understan about about the present, the prese In the In the second seco

ng the on the sidelines. sidelines.

The concentration concentration ding eroding the power the power ng chnology technology plat-plations, itutions, and and soci-socistand d and and howhow the the quality inequality and and the the klash backlash featuring featuring ons, tutions, and and fear fear of of blems problems we have we have

oblem. m. mfrom evolutionary evolutionary ganism. sm. Much Much like like sd and valleys. valleys. TheThe — soa called so-called locallocal olutionary onary biology, biology, the of the longlonglivedlived may mean mean thatthat you you ged hanged conditions. conditions. .idly. OverOver the past the past dia, media, entertainentertainold companies companies and and ess, every every job, job, and and mately, ultimately, no govno govComputers n. Computers willwill ur e our liveslives in their in their

stry ndustry and and every every few years, years, in mulin mulether whether the the fun-fundillwill survive survive the the em e them with. with. ge, ut his putfinger his finger on on

INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION • xxiii • xxiii

the consequence the consequence of failing of failing to dotoso dowhile so while talking talking withwith me over me over breakfast breakfast about about the risks the risks of AI oftaking AI taking overover fromfrom humans: humans: “The“The people people will will rise rise up up before before the machines the machines do.”do.” ThisThis bookbook provides provides a view a view of one of one small small piecepiece of this of this complex complex puzzle, puzzle, the the role role of technology of technology innovation innovation in the in the economy, economy, and and in particular in particular the the role role of WTF? of WTF? technologies technologies suchsuch as AI as and AI and on-demand on-demand services. services. I I lay out lay out the the difficult difficult choices choices we face we face as technology as technology opens opens newnew doors doors of of possibility possibility while while closing closing doors doors thatthat onceonce seemed seemed the sure the sure pathpath to prosto prosperity. perity. But But moremore important, important, I tryIto tryprovide to provide toolstools for thinking for thinking about about the the future, future, drawn drawn fromfrom decades decades on the on frontiers the frontiers of the of technology the technology industry, industry, observing observing and and predicting predicting its changes. its changes. TheThe bookbook is USis UScentric centric and and technologytechnologycentric centric in itsinnarrative; its narrative; it is it is not not an overview an overview of allofofallthe of the forces forces shaping shaping the the economy economy of the of the future, future, many many of which of which are centered are centered outside outside the United the United States States or are or playing are playing out out differently differently in other in other partsparts of the of the world. world. In No In Ordinary No Ordinary Disruption, Disruption, Mc-McKinsey’s Kinsey’s Richard Richard Dobbs, Dobbs, James James Manyika, Manyika, and and Jonathan Jonathan Woetzel Woetzel point point out out quitequite correctly correctly thatthat technology technology is only is only one one of four of four major major disruptive disruptive forces forces shaping shaping the world the world to come. to come. Demographics Demographics (in particular, (in particular, changes changes in longevity in longevity and and the birth the birth rate rate thatthat havehave radically radically shifted shifted the mix the mix of ages of ages in the inglobal the global population), population), globalization, globalization, and and urbanization urbanization maymay playplay at least at least as large as large a role a role as technology. as technology. AndAnd eveneven thatthat list fails list fails to take to take intointo account account catastrophic catastrophic war,war, plague, plague, or environmental or environmental disruption. disruption. These These omissions omissions are not are based not based on aon conviction a conviction thatthat Silicon Silicon Valley’s Valley’s partpart of the of total the total tech-technology nology innovation innovation economy, economy, or the or United the United States, States, is more is more important important thanthan the rest; the rest; it is itsimply is simply thatthat the book the book is based is based on my on personal my personal and and business business experience, experience, which which is rooted is rooted in this in this fieldfield and and in this in this one one country. country. TheThe bookbook is divided is divided intointo fourfour parts. parts. In the In first the first part,part, I’ll share I’ll share some some of the of techniques the techniques thatthat my company my company has has usedused to make to make sense sense of and of and pre-predictdict innovation innovation waves waves suchsuch as the as the commercialization commercialization of the of the Internet, Internet, the rise the rise of open of open source source software, software, the key the key drivers drivers behind behind the renaissance the renaissance of the of web the web afterafter the dotthe dotcomcom bustbust and and the shift the shift to cloud to cloud computing computing and and big data, big data, the Maker the Maker movement, movement, and and much much more. more. I hope I hope to persuade to persuade you you thatthat understanding understanding the the future future requires requires discarding discarding the the wayway you you think think about about the present, the present, giving giving up ideas up ideas thatthat seemseem natural natural and and eveneven inevitable. inevitable. In the In the second second and and thirdthird parts, parts, I’ll apply I’ll apply those those samesame techniques techniques to to

xxiv xxiv • INTRODUCTION • INTRODUCTION

provide provide a framework a framework for thinking for thinking about about howhow technologies technologies suchsuch as onas ondemand demand services, services, networks networks and and platforms, platforms, and and artificial artificial intelligence intelligence are changing are changing the the nature nature of business, of business, education, education, government, government, financial financial markets, markets, and and the the economy economy as aaswhole. a whole. I’ll talk I’ll talk about about the the rise rise of great of great worldworldspanning spanning digital digital platforms platforms ruled ruled by algorithm, by algorithm, and and the way the way thatthat theythey are are reshaping reshaping our our society. society. I’ll examine I’ll examine whatwhat we can we can learnlearn about about these these platforms platforms and and the algorithms the algorithms thatthat rulerule them them fromfrom UberUber and and Lyft,Lyft, Airbnb, Airbnb, Amazon, Amazon, Apple, Apple, Google, Google, and and Facebook. Facebook. AndAnd I’ll talk I’ll talk about about the the one one master master algorithm algorithm we so we take so take for granted for granted thatthat it has it has become become invisible invisible to us. to I’ll us. try I’ll to trydemystify to demystify algorithms algorithms and and AI, AI, and and showshow howhow theythey are not are not just just present present in the in the latest latest technology technology platforms platforms but but already already shape shape business business and and our our economy economy far more far more broadly broadly thanthan mostmost of usofunus understand. derstand. AndAnd I’ll make I’ll make the case the case thatthat many many of the of algorithmic the algorithmic systems systems thatthat we have we have put in putplace in place to guide to guide our our companies companies and and our our economy economy havehave beenbeen designed designed to disregard to disregard the humans the humans and and reward reward the machines. the machines. In the In the fourth fourth partpart of the of the book, book, I’ll examine I’ll examine the the choices choices we have we have to to make make as a as society. a society. Whether Whether we experience we experience the WTF? the WTF? of astonishment of astonishment or the or WTF? the WTF? of dismay of dismay is not is not foreordained. foreordained. It isItupisto upus. to us. It’s easy It’s easy to blame to blame technology technology for the for problems the problems thatthat occur occur in periods in periods of great of great economic economic transition. transition. But But bothboth the the problems problems and and the the solutions solutions are the are result the result of human of human choices. choices. During During the industrial the industrial revolution, revolution, the fruits the fruits of automation of automation werewere firstfirst usedused solely solely to enrich to enrich the the owners owners of the of the machines. machines. Workers Workers werewere often often treated treated as cogs as cogs in the in the machine, machine, to be to used be used up and up and thrown thrown away. away. But But Victorian Victorian England England figured figured out out howhow to do towithout do without childchild labor, labor, withwith re- reduced duced working working hours, hours, and and theirtheir society society became became moremore prosperous. prosperous. We We saw saw the same the same thing thing herehere in the in United the United States States during during the twenthe twentiethtieth century. century. We We looklook backback nownow on the on the goodgood middlemiddleclassclass jobsjobs of the of the postwar postwar era as erasomething as something of an of anomaly. an anomaly. But But theythey didn’t didn’t just just happen happen by chance. by chance. It took It took generations generations of struggle of struggle on the on the partpart of workers of workers and and activists, activists, and and growing growing wisdom wisdom on the on part the part of capitalists, of capitalists, policy policy makers, makers, political political leaders, leaders, and and the voting the voting public. public. In the In end the end we made we made choices choices as a as a society society to share to share the fruits the fruits of productivity of productivity moremore widely. widely. We We alsoalso made made choices choices to invest to invest in the in the future. future. ThatThat golden golden age age of of

postwar postwar productiv produ bridges, bridges, universal univer World World WarWar II, we II, destroyed destroyed by war, by wb newnew industries: industries ae tions. tions. We We invested inve the world the world theythey wer TheThe future future com darkest darkest thatthat the tb of World of World WarWar II work, work, not not by desti by d amplified amplified the the cycl WarWar I, we I, punish we pun them them and and raised raise th beggared beggared its retur its r to college. to college. Wartim Wa intointo the the public publi do stuffstuff of the of the future fu good. good. In the In 1980s, the 1980 t United United States States and ideaidea thatthat whatwhat wa and and structured structured our ing ing ourselves ourselves thatt the same the same as Adam as Ad by ordinary by ordinary people pe out of outwork of work and an ca wentwent to a to smaller a smala We We made made the tw withwith it. The it. The rise ri o omies omies around around the people people in most in most dev tell us tellthat us that we took we TheThe WTF? WTF te

ologies ies suchsuch as onas onal ificial intelligence intelligence ment, ernment, financial financial he ut the rise rise of great of great m,d and the way the way thatthat we an can learnlearn about about Uber om Uber and and Lyft,Lyft, And I’ll talk I’ll talk about about hat it has it has become become AI, and and showshow howhow ms tforms but but already already han mostmost of usofunus unithmic gorithmic systems systems our economy economy havehave machines. he machines. choices ces we have we have to to F? f astonishment of astonishment to s. us. ccur at occur in periods in periods sd and the the solutions solutions

tomation ation werewere firstfirst Workers kers werewere often often own thrown away. away. But But hild labor, labor, withwith re- reosperous. e prosperous. sring during the twenthe twenlass le-class jobsjobs of the of the n’t didn’t just just happen happen of artworkers of workers and and policy sts, policy makers, makers, ede made choices choices as a as a ly. That golden golden age age of of

INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION • xxv • xxv

postwar postwar productivity productivity was was the result the result of massive of massive investments investments in roads in roads and and bridges, bridges, universal universal power, power, water, water, sanitation, sanitation, and and communications. communications. After After World World WarWar II, we II, committed we committed enormous enormous resources resources to rebuild to rebuild the the lands lands destroyed destroyed by war, by war, but we butalso we also invested invested in basic in basic research. research. We We invested invested in in newnew industries: industries: aerospace, aerospace, chemicals, chemicals, computers, computers, and and telecommunicatelecommunications. tions. We We invested invested in education, in education, so that so that children children could could be prepared be prepared for for the world the world theythey werewere about about to inherit. to inherit. TheThe future future comes comes in fits in and fits and starts, starts, and and it is itoften is often when when times times are are darkest darkest thatthat the the brightest brightest futures futures are are being being born. born. OutOut of the of the ashes ashes of World of World WarWar II we II forged we forged a prosperous a prosperous world. world. By choice By choice and and hardhard work, work, not not by destiny. by destiny. TheThe Great Great WarWar of a of generation a generation earlier earlier had had onlyonly amplified amplified the the cyclecycle of dismay. of dismay. What What was was the the difference? difference? After After World World WarWar I, we I, punished we punished the the losers. losers. After After World World WarWar II, we II, invested we invested in in them them and and raised raised them them up again. up again. After After World World WarWar I, the I, United the United States States beggared beggared its returning its returning veterans. veterans. After After World World WarWar II, we II, sent we sent them them to college. to college. Wartime Wartime technologies technologies suchsuch as digital as digital computing computing werewere put put intointo the the public public domain domain so that so that theythey could could be transformed be transformed intointo the the stuffstuff of the of the future. future. TheThe richrich taxed taxed themselves themselves to finance to finance the the public public good. good. In the In 1980s, the 1980s, though, though, the idea the idea thatthat “greed “greed is good” is good” tooktook holdhold in the in the United United States States and and we turned we turned awayaway fromfrom prosperity. prosperity. We We accepted accepted the the ideaidea thatthat whatwhat was was goodgood for financial for financial markets markets was was goodgood for everyone for everyone and and structured structured our our economy economy to drive to drive stock stock prices prices everever higher, higher, convincconvincing ing ourselves ourselves thatthat “the“the market” market” of stocks, of stocks, bonds, bonds, and and derivatives derivatives was was the same the same as Adam as Adam Smith’s Smith’s market market of real of real goods goods and and services services exchanged exchanged by ordinary by ordinary people. people. We We hollowed hollowed out the out real the real economy, economy, putting putting people people out of outwork of work and and capping capping theirtheir wages wages in service in service to corporate to corporate profits profits thatthat wentwent to a to smaller a smaller and and smaller smaller sliceslice of society. of society. We We made made the the wrong wrong choice choice fortyforty yearsyears ago.ago. We We don’tdon’t needneed to stick to stick withwith it. The it. The rise rise of a of billion a billion people people out out of poverty of poverty in developing in developing econeconomies omies around around the world the world at the at same the same timetime thatthat the incomes the incomes of ordinary of ordinary people people in most in most developed developed economies economies havehave beenbeen going going backward backward should should tell us tellthat us that we took we took a wrong a wrong turnturn somewhere. somewhere. TheThe WTF? WTF? technologies technologies of the of the twentytwentyfirstfirst century century havehave the the

xxvi xxvi • INTRODUCTION • INTRODUCTION

potential potential to turbocharge to turbocharge the the productivity productivity of all of our all our industries. industries. But But making making whatwhat we do we now do now more more productive productive is just is just the the beginning. beginning. We We mustmust share share the the fruits fruits of that of that productivity, productivity, and and use use them them wisely. wisely. If If we let we machines let machines put put us out us out of work, of work, it will it will be because be because of aof failure a failure of of imagination imagination and and a lack a lack of will of will to make to make a better a better future. future.

ndustries. ur industries. But But beginning. he beginning. We We hem se them wisely. wisely. If If ause of aof failure a failure of of ure.

PART PARTII USING USING THE THE RIGHT RIGHT MAPS MAPS TheThe map map is not is not thethe territory. territory. —Alfred —Alfred Korzybski Korzybski

SEEING SEEING THE T

IN THE IN THE MEDIA, MEDI

think think of myself of mysel tha of the of the present present that Maps Maps aren’t aren’t just ju re are any are any system system tha to go. to One go. One of my of fm of writing of writing is toiscre to bookbook is a map. is a map. We We use use maps— m which which theythey represe rep other other but in butevery in ev enedened home home withou wi havehave internalized internaliz the the location location of eve of or venture or venture capitali cap of the of technology the technoloa egories: egories: friend friend or a portant, portant, urgent urgen or mental mental map.map. But But as we’re as we’r re follow follow theirtheir GPSG In business In business and and in because because we are we ar na maps— maps— maps maps thatt perhaps perhaps eveneven activa Most Most often, often in are are wrong wrong simply sim eacheach inventor, inventor, is al ble, ble, whatwhat works work an

11 SEEING SEEING THE THE FUTURE FUTURE IN IN THE THE PRESENT PRESENT

IN THE IN THE MEDIA, MEDIA, I’M I’M OFTEN OFTEN PEGGED PEGGED AS AS A FUTURIST. A FUTURIST. I DON’T I DON’T

think think of myself of myself thatthat way.way. I think I think of myself of myself as a as mapmaker. a mapmaker. I draw I draw a map a map of the of the present present thatthat makes makes it easier it easier to see to the see the possibilities possibilities of the of the future. future. Maps Maps aren’t aren’t just just representations representations of physical of physical locations locations and and routes. routes. They They are any are any system system thatthat helps helps us see us where see where we are we and are and where where we are we trying are trying to go. to One go. One of my of favorite my favorite quotes quotes is from is from Edwin Edwin Schlossberg: Schlossberg: “The “The skillskill of writing of writing is toiscreate to create a context a context in which in which other other people people can can think.” think.” ThisThis bookbook is a map. is a map. We We use use maps— maps— simplified simplified abstractions abstractions of an of underlying an underlying reality, reality, which which theythey represent— represent— not not just just in trying in trying to get to from get from one one placeplace to anto another other but in butevery in every aspect aspect of our of our lives.lives. When When we walk we walk through through our our darkdarkenedened home home without without the the needneed to turn to turn on the on the light, light, thatthat is because is because we we havehave internalized internalized a mental a mental mapmap of the of the space, space, the the layout layout of the of the rooms, rooms, the the location location of every of every chairchair and and table. table. Similarly, Similarly, when when an entrepreneur an entrepreneur or venture or venture capitalist capitalist goesgoes to work to work eacheach day,day, he orheshe or has she has a mental a mental mapmap of the of technology the technology and and business business landscape. landscape. We We dispose dispose the world the world in catin categories: egories: friend friend or acquaintance, or acquaintance, ally ally or competitor, or competitor, important important or unimor unimportant, portant, urgent urgent or trivial, or trivial, future future or past. or past. For For eacheach category, category, we have we have a a mental mental map.map. But But as we’re as we’re reminded reminded by the by the sad sad stories stories of people of people whowho religiously religiously follow follow theirtheir GPSGPS off aoff noa longerno-longerexistent existent bridge, bridge, maps maps can can be wrong. be wrong. In business In business and and in technology, in technology, we often we often fail to failsee to clearly see clearly whatwhat is ahead is ahead because because we are we are navigating navigating using using old old maps maps and and sometimes sometimes eveneven bad bad maps— maps— maps maps thatthat leaveleave out out critical critical details details about about our our environment environment or or perhaps perhaps eveneven actively actively misrepresent misrepresent it. it. Most Most often, often, in fastin fastmoving moving fields fields like like science science and and technology, technology, maps maps are are wrong wrong simply simply because because so much so much is unknown. is unknown. Each Each entrepreneur, entrepreneur, eacheach inventor, inventor, is also is also an explorer, an explorer, trying trying to make to make sense sense of what’s of what’s possipossible, ble, whatwhat works works and and whatwhat doesn’t, doesn’t, and and howhow to move to move forward. forward.

4 • 4WTF? • WTF?

Think Think of the of the entrepreneurs entrepreneurs working working to develop to develop the the US US transcontitranscontinental nental railroad railroad in the in the mid-midnineteenth nineteenth century. century. TheThe ideaidea was was firstfirst pro-proposed posed in 1832, in 1832, but it but wasn’t it wasn’t eveneven clearclear thatthat the project the project was was feasible feasible untiluntil the the 1850s, 1850s, when when the the US US House House of Representatives of Representatives provided provided the the fundfunding for ingan forextensive an extensive series series of surveys of surveys of the of American the American West, West, a precursor a precursor to any to any actual actual construction. construction. Three Three yearsyears of exploration of exploration fromfrom 18531853 to to 18551855 resulted resulted in the in Paciﬁc the Paciﬁc Railroad Railroad Surveys, Surveys, a twelvea twelvevolume volume collection collection of data of data on 400,000 on 400,000 square square miles miles of the of American the American West. West. But But all that all that datadata did not did make not make the path the path forward forward entirely entirely clear. clear. There There was was fierce fierce debate debate about about the the bestbest route, route, debate debate thatthat was was not not just just about about the geophysical the geophysical merits merits of northern of northern versus versus southern southern routes routes but also but also about about the the contested contested extension extension of slavery. of slavery. EvenEven when when the the intended intended routeroute was was decided decided on and on and construction construction began began in 1863, in 1863, therethere werewere unexpected unexpected problems— problems— a grade a grade steeper steeper thanthan previously previously reported reported thatthat was was too too diffidifficult cult for afor locomotive, a locomotive, weather weather conditions conditions thatthat made made certain certain routes routes im- impassable passable during during the winter. the winter. YouYou couldn’t couldn’t just just drawdraw lineslines on the on map the map and and expect expect everything everything to work to work perfectly. perfectly. TheThe mapmap had had to be to refined be refined and and redrawn redrawn withwith moremore and and moremore layers layers of essential of essential datadata added added untiluntil it was it was clearclear enough enough to act to on. act Explorers on. Explorers and and surveyors surveyors wentwent down down many many falsefalse paths paths before before deciding deciding on the on final the final route. route. Creating Creating the right the right mapmap is the is first the first challenge challenge we face we face in making in making sense sense of today’s of today’s WTF? WTF? technologies. technologies. Before Before we can we can understand understand howhow to deal to deal withwith AI, AI, on-demand on-demand applications, applications, and and the the disappearance disappearance of middleof middleclassclass jobs,jobs, and and howhow these these things things can can come come together together intointo a future a future we we wantwant to live to live in, we in,have we have to make to make suresure we aren’t we aren’t blinded blinded by old by ideas. old ideas. We We havehave to see to patterns see patterns thatthat crosscross old boundaries. old boundaries. TheThe mapmap we follow we follow intointo the future the future is like is like a picture a picture puzzle puzzle withwith many many of the of pieces the pieces missing. missing. YouYou can can see the see rough the rough outline outline of one of one pattern pattern overover here,here, and and another another there, there, but but therethere are are greatgreat gapsgaps and and you you can’tcan’t quitequite make make the the connections. connections. AndAnd thenthen one one day day someone someone pours pours out out another another set of setpieces of pieces on the on table, the table, and and suddenly suddenly the pattern the pattern popspops intointo focus. focus. TheThe difference difference between between a map a map of anofunknown an unknown territory territory and and a picture a picture puzzle puzzle is that is that no one no one knows knows the the full full picture picture in advance. in advance. It doesn’t It doesn’t existexist untiluntil we see we it— see it— it’s ait’s puzzle a puzzle whose whose pattern pattern we make we make up together up together as we as go, we go, invented invented as much as much as itasis itdiscovered. is discovered.

Finding Finding our ou w explorer explorer filling filling in

LISTENING LISTENING FOR F

Mark Mark Twain Twain is r

but but it often it often rhy

the the firstfirst lesson les

TheThe storystory of hoo refined, refined, and and adopt a about about the the changin chan changed changed the the cours c world world to come— to come— sh and and howhow revising revisit Before Before I delve I de backback youryour mind min to Software Software was w leases leases coming coming at b 42%42% of US of US househ ho ownown a smartphone a smartph phone phone of any of any kind. k tiny,tiny, withwith onlyonly 14 More More thanthan halfhal of azonazon and and eBayeBay had onlyonly just just founded foundi Microsoft Microsoft had manman in the in the world. wo dustry, dustry, withwith a nea a thatthat it had it had leverag lev Justice Justice Departmen Depart company company in May in M earlier earlier against against IBM In contrast In contrast to t cessful, cessful, openopen sourc s

the US US transcontitranscontiaidea was was firstfirst pro-proast was feasible feasible untiluntil provided ided the the fundfundnest, West, a precursor a precursor tion fromfrom 18531853 to to ume -volume collection collection West. ely ntirely clear. clear. There There was not not just just about about utes but also but also about about nded ntended routeroute was was erewere unexpected unexpected tthat was was too too diffidiffitain certain routes routes im- imon nesthe on map the map and and be to refined be refined and and ded added untiluntil it was it was twn down many many falsefalse

ncemaking in making sense sense nd rstand howhow to deal to deal nce arance of middleof middleto r into a future a future we we ed y old by ideas. old ideas. We We

ezzle puzzle withwith many many ne of one pattern pattern overover you nd you can’tcan’t quitequite rs pours out out another another ops ntointo focus. focus. TheThe nd picture a picture puzzle puzzle sn’t doesn’t existexist untiluntil ether together as we as go, we go,

SEEING SEEING THETHE FUTURE FUTURE IN THE IN THE PRESENT PRESENT • 5 • 5

Finding Finding our our wayway intointo the the future future is a iscollaborative a collaborative act, act, withwith eacheach explorer explorer filling filling in critical in critical pieces pieces thatthat allow allow others others to gotoforward. go forward. LISTENING LISTENING FOR FOR THETHE RHYMES RHYMES Mark Mark Twain Twain is reputed is reputed to have to have saidsaid , “History , “History doesn’t doesn’t repeat repeat itself, itself, but but it often it often rhymes.” rhymes.” Study Study history history andand notice notice its patterns. its patterns. ThisThis is is the the firstfirst lesson lesson I learned I learned in how in how to think to think about about the the future. future.

TheThe storystory of how of how the term the term openopen source source software software came came to betodeveloped, be developed, refined, refined, and and adopted adopted in early in early 1998—what 1998—what it helped it helped us tousunderstand to understand about about the the changing changing nature nature of software, of software, howhow thatthat newnew understanding understanding changed changed the the course course of the of the industry, industry, and and whatwhat it predicted it predicted about about the the world world to come— to come— shows shows howhow the mental the mental maps maps we use we limit use limit our thinking, our thinking, and and howhow revising revising the map the map can can transform transform the choices the choices we make. we make. Before Before I delve I delve intointo whatwhat is now is now ancient ancient history, history, I need I need you you to roll to roll backback youryour mind mind to 1998. to 1998. Software Software was was distributed distributed in shrinkin shrinkwrapped wrapped boxes, boxes, withwith newnew re- releases leases coming coming at best at best annually, annually, often often every every twotwo or three or three years. years. OnlyOnly 42%42% of US of US households households had had a personal a personal computer, computer, versus versus the the 80%80% whowho ownown a smartphone a smartphone today. today. OnlyOnly 20%20% of the of US the population US population had had a mobile a mobile phone phone of any of any kind. kind. TheThe Internet Internet was was exciting exciting investors— investors— but it but was it was still still tiny,tiny, withwith onlyonly 147 147 million million usersusers worldwide, worldwide, versus versus 3.4 3.4 billion billion today. today. More More thanthan halfhalf of allofUS all Internet US Internet usersusers had had access access through through AOL. AOL. Am-Amazonazon and and eBayeBay had had beenbeen launched launched three three yearsyears earlier, earlier, but but Google Google was was onlyonly just just founded founded in September in September of that of that year.year. Microsoft Microsoft had had made made Bill Bill Gates, Gates, its founder its founder and and CEO, CEO, the the richest richest manman in the in the world. world. It was It was the the defining defining company company of the of the technology technology in- industry, dustry, withwith a neara nearmonopoly monopoly position position in personal in personal computer computer software software thatthat it had it had leveraged leveraged to destroy to destroy competitor competitor afterafter competitor. competitor. TheThe US US Justice Justice Department Department launched launched an antitrust an antitrust investigation investigation against against the the company company in May in May of that of that year,year, just just as itashad it had donedone nearly nearly thirty thirty yearsyears earlier earlier against against IBM. IBM. In contrast In contrast to the to the proprietary proprietary software software thatthat made made Microsoft Microsoft so sucso successful, cessful, openopen source source software software is distributed is distributed under under a license a license thatthat allows allows

6 • 6WTF? • WTF?

anyone anyone to freely to freely study, study, modify, modify, and and buildbuild on it.onExamples it. Examples of open of open source source software software include include the Linux the Linux and and Android Android operating operating systems; systems; webweb browsers browsers like like Chrome Chrome and and Firefox; Firefox; popular popular programming programming languages languages like like Python, Python, PHP, PHP, and and JavaScript; JavaScript; modern modern big data big data toolstools like like Hadoop Hadoop and and Spark; Spark; and and cuttingcuttingedgeedge artificial artificial intelligence intelligence toolkits toolkits like like Google’s Google’s Tensor Tensor Flow, Flow, Facebook’s Facebook’s Torch, Torch, or Microsoft’s or Microsoft’s CNTK. CNTK. In the In the earlyearly daysdays of computers, of computers, mostmost software software was was openopen source, source, though though not not by that by that name. name. Some Some basicbasic operating operating software software came came withwith a a computer, computer, but but much much of the of the codecode thatthat actually actually made made a computer a computer useful useful was was custom custom software software written written to solve to solve specific specific problems. problems. TheThe software software written written by scientists by scientists and and researchers researchers in particular in particular was was often often shared. shared. During During the late the late 1970s 1970s and and 1980s, 1980s, though, though, companies companies had had realized realized thatthat controlling controlling access access to software to software gavegave them them commercial commercial advantage advantage and and had had begun begun to close to close off access off access using using restrictive restrictive licenses. licenses. In 1985, In 1985, Richard Richard Stallman, Stallman, a programmer a programmer at the at the Massachusetts Massachusetts Institute Institute of Technolof Technology,ogy, published published The The GNU GNU Manifesto, Manifesto, laying laying out out the the principles principles of what of what he called he called “free“free software”— software”— not not free free as inasprice, in price, but but free free as inasfreedom in freedom : : the the freedom freedom to study, to study, to redistribute, to redistribute, and and to modify to modify software software without without permission. permission. Stallman’s Stallman’s ambitious ambitious goalgoal was was to build to build a completely a completely free free version version of of AT&T’s AT&T’s UnixUnix operating operating system, system, originally originally developed developed at Bell at Bell Labs, Labs, the the research research armarm of AT&T. of AT&T. At the At time the time UnixUnix was was firstfirst developed developed in the in late the late 1970s, 1970s, AT&T AT&T was was a legal a legal monopoly monopoly withwith enormous enormous profits profits fromfrom regulated regulated telephone telephone ser- services. vices. As aAs result, a result, AT&T AT&T was was not not allowed allowed to compete to compete in the in computer the computer industry, industry, thenthen dominated dominated by IBM, by IBM, and and in accord in accord withwith its 1956 its 1956 consent consent decree decree withwith the Justice the Justice Department Department had had licensed licensed UnixUnix to computer to computer sci- scienceence research research groups groups on generous on generous terms. terms. Computer Computer programmers programmers at at universities universities and and companies companies all over all over the the world world had had responded responded by conby contributing tributing key key elements elements to the to operating the operating system. system. But But afterafter the the decisive decisive consent consent decree decree of 1982, of 1982, in which in which AT&T AT&T agreed agreed to betobroken be broken up into up into seven seven smaller smaller companies companies (“the(“the BabyBaby Bells”) Bells”) in exchange in exchange for being for being allowed allowed to compete to compete in the in the computer computer market, market, AT&T AT&T triedtried to make to make UnixUnix proprietary. proprietary. They They suedsued the the University University of of California, California, Berkeley, Berkeley, which which had had builtbuilt an alternate an alternate version version of Unix of Unix (the(the

Berkeley Berkeley Software Softw down down the collabor the colla atingating system system in the in While While Berkele Ber man’s man’s GNU GNU Proje P “Gnu’s “Gnu’s NotNot Unix” Un ceptcept the kernel, the kerne th the the other other software softw science science student studen na consisted consisted of aofmin a portable portable to many to mad erating erating system system Lin OverOver the the nextn entrepreneurs entrepreneurs seiz system system combining combin tion’s tion’s re-creation re-creatio was was no longer no longer AT& In the In early the early day personal personal computer comp hardware, hardware, Microso Mic pendent pendent software softwa c spreadsheets, spreadsheets, datab d the new the new platform. platfor partpart of the of ecosyste the eco the introduction the introductio of gramming gramming Interfac Inte but but locked locked develop dev systems systems for the for PC the hold.hold. AndAnd soonsoo M to privilege to privilege its own its Access, Access, and,and, later,la Edge)— Edge)— by making by ma TheThe independe indepe slowly slowly dying, dying, as Ma other. other.

ples of open of open source source s; tems; webweb browsers browsers es uages like like Python, Python, oop and and Spark; Spark; and and ogle’s ’s Tensor Tensor Flow, Flow,

s was openopen source, source, re tware came came withwith a a omputer a computer useful useful ems. TheThe software software was often often shared. shared. sd had realized realized thatthat advantage ial advantage and and s.1985, In 1985, Richard Richard te titute of Technolof Technolnciples principles of what of what as reeinasfreedom in freedom : : ytware software without without

tely free free version version of of dBell at Bell Labs, Labs, the the

0s, 1970s, AT&T AT&T was was ated telephone telephone ser- serntethe in computer the computer th s 1956 its 1956 consent consent oixcomputer to computer sci- scier rogrammers programmers at at responded onded by conby con-

which in which AT&T AT&T he(“the BabyBaby Bells”) Bells”) mputer computer market, market, e the University University of of ersion n of Unix of Unix (the(the

SEEING SEEING THETHE FUTURE FUTURE IN THE IN THE PRESENT PRESENT • 7 • 7

Berkeley Berkeley Software Software Distribution, Distribution, or BSD), or BSD), and and effectively effectively triedtried to shut to shut down down the collaborative the collaborative barnbarn raising raising thatthat had had helped helped to create to create the operthe operatingating system system in the in first the first place. place. While While Berkeley Berkeley UnixUnix was was stalled stalled by AT&T’s by AT&T’s legallegal attacks, attacks, StallStallman’s man’s GNU GNU Project Project (named (named for the for the meaningless meaningless recursive recursive acronym acronym “Gnu’s “Gnu’s NotNot Unix”) Unix”) had had duplicated duplicated all of allthe of the key key elements elements of Unix of Unix ex- exceptcept the kernel, the kernel, the central the central codecode thatthat acts acts as a as kind a kind of traffic of traffic cop cop for all for all the the other other software. software. ThatThat kernel kernel was was supplied supplied by abyFinnish a Finnish computer computer science science student student named named Linus Linus Torvalds, Torvalds, whose whose master’s master’s thesis thesis in 1990 in 1990 consisted consisted of aofminimalist a minimalist UnixUnixlike like operating operating system system thatthat would would be be portable portable to many to many different different computer computer architectures. architectures. He He called called this this op- operating erating system system Linux. Linux. OverOver the the nextnext few few years, years, therethere was was a fury a fury of commercial of commercial activity activity as as entrepreneurs entrepreneurs seized seized on the on the possibilities possibilities of a of completely a completely free free operating operating system system combining combining Torvalds’s Torvalds’s kernel kernel withwith the the FreeFree Software Software FoundaFoundation’s tion’s re-creation re-creation of the of the rest rest of the of the UnixUnix operating operating system. system. TheThe target target was was no longer no longer AT&T, AT&T, but rather but rather Microsoft. Microsoft. In the In early the early daysdays of the of PC the PC industry, industry, IBMIBM and and a growing a growing number number of of personal personal computer computer “clone” “clone” vendors vendors like like DellDell and and Gateway Gateway provided provided the the hardware, hardware, Microsoft Microsoft provided provided the operating the operating system, system, and and a host a host of indeof independent pendent software software companies companies provided provided the “killer the “killer apps”— apps”— wordword processing, processing, spreadsheets, spreadsheets, databases, databases, and and graphics graphics programs— programs— thatthat drove drove adoption adoption of of the new the new platform. platform. Microsoft’s Microsoft’s DOS DOS (Disk (Disk Operating Operating System) System) was was a keya key partpart of the of ecosystem, the ecosystem, but it but was it was far from far from in control. in control. ThatThat changed changed withwith the introduction the introduction of Microsoft of Microsoft Windows. Windows. Its extensive Its extensive Application Application Pro-Programming gramming Interfaces Interfaces (APIs) (APIs) made made application application development development much much easier easier but but locked locked developers developers intointo Microsoft’s Microsoft’s platform. platform. Competing Competing operating operating systems systems for the for PC the PC like like IBM’s IBM’s OS/2 OS/2 werewere unable unable to break to break the stranglethe stranglehold.hold. AndAnd soonsoon Microsoft Microsoft usedused its dominance its dominance of the of the operating operating system system to privilege to privilege its own its own applications— applications— Microsoft Microsoft Word, Word, Excel, Excel, Power Power Point, Point, Access, Access, and,and, later,later, Internet Internet Explorer, Explorer, theirtheir webweb browser browser (now(now Microsoft Microsoft Edge)— Edge)— by making by making bundling bundling dealsdeals withwith largelarge buyers. buyers. TheThe independent independent software software industry industry for the for the personal personal computer computer was was slowly slowly dying, dying, as Microsoft as Microsoft tooktook overover one one application application category category afterafter an- another. other.

8 • 8WTF? • WTF?

ThisThis is the is the rhyming rhyming pattern pattern thatthat I noticed: I noticed: The The personal personal computer computer industry industry hadhad begun begun withwith an explosion an explosion of innovation of innovation thatthat broke broke IBM’s IBM’s monopoly monopoly on the on the firstfirst generation generation of computing, of computing, but but hadhad ended ended in another in another “winner “winner takes takes all” all” monopoly. monopoly. Look Look for repeating for repeating patterns patterns andand ask ask yourself yourself what what the the nextnext iteration iteration might might be. be.

NowNow everyone everyone was was asking asking whether whether a desktop a desktop version version of Linux of Linux could could change change the the game. game. NotNot onlyonly startups startups but but alsoalso big companies big companies like like IBM, IBM, trying trying to claw to claw theirtheir wayway backback to the to the top top of the of the heap, heap, placed placed hugehuge betsbets thatthat theythey could. could. But But therethere was was far more far more to the to Linux the Linux storystory thanthan just just competing competing withwith Microsoft. Microsoft. It was It was rewriting rewriting the the rulesrules of the of the software software industry industry in ways in ways thatthat no one no one expected. expected. It had It had become become the the platform platform on which on which many many of of the the world’s world’s greatgreat websites— websites— at the at the time, time, mostmost notably notably Amazon Amazon and and Google— Google— werewere being being built. built. But But it was it was alsoalso reshaping reshaping the very the very wayway thatthat software software was was being being written. written. In February In February 1997, 1997, at the at the Linux Linux Kongress Kongress in Würzburg, in Würzburg, Germany, Germany, hacker hacker EricEric Raymond Raymond delivered delivered a paper, a paper, called called “The “The Cathedral Cathedral and and the the Bazaar,” Bazaar,” thatthat electrified electrified the the Linux Linux community. community. It laid It laid out out a theory a theory of of software software development development drawn drawn fromfrom reﬂections reﬂections on Linux on Linux and and on Eric’s on Eric’s ownown experiences experiences withwith whatwhat laterlater came came to betocalled be called openopen source source software software development. development. EricEric wrote: wrote: Who Who would would havehave thought thought eveneven five five yearsyears ago ago thatthat a worlda worldclassclass operating operating system system could could coalesce coalesce as ifasbyifmagic by magic out out of partof parttimetime hacking hacking by several by several thousand thousand developers developers scattered scattered all over all over the the planet, planet, connected connected onlyonly by the by tenuous the tenuous strands strands of the of Internet? the Internet? ...... [T]he [T]he Linux Linux community community seemed seemed to resemble to resemble a great a great babbling babbling bazaar bazaar of differing of differing agendas agendas and and approaches approaches (aptly (aptly symbolized symbolized by by the Linux the Linux archive archive sites,sites, who’d who’d taketake submissions submissions fromfrom anyone) anyone) out out of which of which a coherent a coherent and and stable stable system system could could seemingly seemingly emerge emerge onlyonly by aby succession a succession of miracles. of miracles. EricEric laid laid out out a series a series of principles of principles thatthat have, have, overover the the pastpast decades, decades, become become partpart of the of software the software development development gospel: gospel: thatthat software software should should

be released be released earlyear an be perfected; be perfected; thatt “given “given enough enough eyeb Today, Today, whether whe prietary prietary software, softw by the by the openopen source so today’s today’s Internet Interns When When you you go to goa participant participant in the in the PC the PC era. era. YouYo ar imagined— imagined— you yo are and and code. code. But But you ally ally evolving, evolving, unfin u before before imagined. imagineI applications, applications, testin te impact, impact, and and learni le EricEric saw saw thatth s ing ing developed, developed bu and and the the Bazaar,” Bazaai would would spread spread far b itself, itself, shaping shaping con revolution revolution in whic in w like like on-demand on-deman tr I was I was invited invite to talk,talk, titled titled “Hardw “H was was fascinated fascinated no beenbeen builtbuilt on top on but it but seemed it seemed to mt kinds kinds of software of softww Today Today it’s obvi it’s thatthat the the webweb has hb of the of the webweb browse bro about about the the architec arch and and associated associated cod thing thing managed managed by

ersonal nal computer computer

that ion that broke broke

uting, g, but but hadhad

ook for repeating for repeating

ght might be. be.

of ionLinux of Linux could could mpanies nies like like IBM, IBM, p, aced placed hugehuge betsbets

ust ompeting competing withwith dustry e industry in ways in ways which on which many many of of ably Amazon Amazon and and ge very the very wayway thatthat

ürzburg, urg, Germany, Germany, hedral Cathedral and and the the out aid out a theory a theory of of xinux and and on Eric’s on Eric’s ource en source software software

at worlda worldclassclass out of partof parttimetime all ed over all over the the nternet? he Internet? ...... eatgreat babbling babbling mbolized y symbolized by by rom anyone) anyone) out out ngly emingly emerge emerge

er the pastpast decades, decades, oftware at software should should

SEEING SEEING THETHE FUTURE FUTURE IN THE IN THE PRESENT PRESENT • 9 • 9

be released be released earlyearly and and often, often, in aninunfinished an unfinished statestate rather rather thanthan waiting waiting to to be perfected; be perfected; thatthat usersusers should should be treated be treated as “coas “codevelopers”; developers”; and and thatthat “given “given enough enough eyeballs, eyeballs, all bugs all bugs are shallow.” are shallow.” Today, Today, whether whether programmers programmers develop develop openopen source source software software or proor proprietary prietary software, software, theythey use use toolstools and and approaches approaches thatthat werewere pioneered pioneered by the by the openopen source source community. community. But But moremore important, important, anyone anyone whowho usesuses today’s today’s Internet Internet software software has has experienced experienced these these principles principles at work. at work. When When you you go to goatosite a site like like Amazon, Amazon, Facebook, Facebook, or Google, or Google, you you are aare a participant participant in the in the development development process process in a in way a way thatthat was was unknown unknown in in the PC the PC era. era. YouYou are not are anot “coa “codeveloper” developer” in the in way the way thatthat EricEric Raymond Raymond imagined— imagined— you you are not are another not another hacker hacker contributing contributing feature feature suggestions suggestions and and code. code. But But you you are aare “beta a “beta tester”— tester”— someone someone whowho triestries out continuout continually ally evolving, evolving, unfinished unfinished software software and and givesgives feedback— feedback— at a at scale a scale never never before before imagined. imagined. Internet Internet software software developers developers constantly constantly update update theirtheir applications, applications, testing testing newnew features features on millions on millions of users, of users, measuring measuring theirtheir impact, impact, and and learning learning as they as they go. go. EricEric saw saw thatthat something something was was changing changing in the in way the way software software was was be- being ing developed, developed, but but in 1997, in 1997, when when he first he first delivered delivered “The “The Cathedral Cathedral and and the the Bazaar,” Bazaar,” it wasn’t it wasn’t yet clear yet clear thatthat the the principles principles he articulated he articulated would would spread spread far beyond far beyond free free software, software, beyond beyond software software development development itself, itself, shaping shaping content content sitessites like like Wikipedia Wikipedia and and eventually eventually enabling enabling a a revolution revolution in which in which consumers consumers would would become become co-creators co-creators of services of services like like on-demand on-demand transportation transportation (Uber (Uber and and Lyft) Lyft) and and lodging lodging (Airbnb). (Airbnb). I was I was invited invited to give to give a talk a talk at the at same the same conference conference in Würzburg. in Würzburg. My My talk,talk, titled titled “Hardware, “Hardware, Software, Software, and and Infoware,” Infoware,” was was veryvery different. different. I I was was fascinated fascinated not not just just withwith Linux, Linux, but but withwith Amazon. Amazon. Amazon Amazon had had beenbeen builtbuilt on top on top of various of various kinds kinds of free of free software, software, including including Linux, Linux, but it but seemed it seemed to me to to mebetofundamentally be fundamentally different different in character in character fromfrom the the kinds kinds of software of software we’dwe’d seenseen in previous in previous eraseras of computing. of computing. Today Today it’s obvious it’s obvious to everyone to everyone thatthat websites websites are are applications applications and and thatthat the the webweb has has become become a platform, a platform, but but in 1997 in 1997 mostmost people people thought thought of the of the webweb browser browser as the as the application. application. If they If they knew knew a little a little bit more bit more about about the the architecture architecture of the of the web,web, theythey might might think think of the of the webweb server server and and associated associated codecode and and datadata as the as application. the application. TheThe content content was was somesomething thing managed managed by the by the browser, browser, in the in the samesame wayway thatthat Microsoft Microsoft Word Word

10 •10WTF? • WTF?

manages manages a document a document or that or that Excel Excel lets lets you you create create a spreadsheet. a spreadsheet. By By contrast, contrast, I was I was convinced convinced thatthat the the content content itselfitself was was an essential an essential partpart of the of the application, application, and and thatthat the the dynamic dynamic nature nature of that of that content content was was leading leading to antoentirely an entirely newnew architectural architectural design design pattern pattern for afor next a next stagestage beyond beyond software, software, which which at the at time the time I called I called “infoware.” “infoware.” Where Where EricEric was was focused focused on the on success the success of the of Linux the Linux operating operating sys-system,tem, and and saw saw it asitanasalternative an alternative to Microsoft to Microsoft Windows, Windows, I was I was particuparticularlylarly fascinated fascinated by the by the success success of the of the PerlPerl programming programming language language in in enabling enabling this this newnew paradigm paradigm on the on web. the web. PerlPerl was was originally originally created created by Larry by Larry WallWall in 1987 in 1987 and and distributed distributed for free for free overover earlyearly computer computer networks. networks. I had I had published published Larry’s Larry’s book, book, Programming Programming Perl,Perl, in 1991, in 1991, and and was was preparing preparing to launch to launch the Perl the Perl ConConference ference in the in the summer summer of 1997. of 1997. I had I had beenbeen inspired inspired to start to start the the PerlPerl Conference Conference by the by the chance chance conjunction conjunction of comments of comments by two by two friends. friends. Early Early in 1997, in 1997, Carla Carla Bayha, Bayha, the the computer computer bookbook buyer buyer at the at the Borders Borders bookstore bookstore chain, chain, had had toldtold me that me that the the second second edition edition of Programming of Programming Perl,Perl, published published in 1996, in 1996, was was one one of the of the top top 100 100 books books in any in any category category at Borders at Borders thatthat year.year. It struck It struck me as mecurious as curious thatthat despite despite this this fact,fact, therethere was was virtually virtually nothing nothing written written about about PerlPerl in any in any of the of the computer computer tradetrade papers. papers. Because Because therethere was was no company no company behind behind Perl,Perl, it was it was virtually virtually invisible invisible to the to pundits the pundits whowho followed followed the industry. the industry. AndAnd thenthen Andrew Andrew Schulman, Schulman, the the author author of aofbook a book called called Un-Unauthorized authorized Windows Windows 95, 95, toldtold me me something something I found I found equally equally curious. curious. At that At that time, time, Microsoft Microsoft was was airing airing a series a series of television of television commercials commercials about about the the wayway thatthat theirtheir newnew technology technology called called Active/X Active/X would would “ac-“activate tivate the the Internet.” Internet.” TheThe software software demos demos in these in these ads ads werewere actually actually mostly mostly donedone withwith Perl,Perl, according according to Andrew. to Andrew. It was It was clearclear to me to that me that Perl,Perl, not not Active/X, Active/X, was was actually actually at the at the heart heart of the of the wayway dynamic dynamic webweb content content was was being being delivered. delivered. I was I was outraged. outraged. I decided I decided thatthat I needed I needed to make to make some some noisenoise about about Perl.Perl. AndAnd so, early so, early in 1997, in 1997, I had I had announced announced my first my first conference conference as a as a publicity publicity stunt, stunt, to get to people get people to pay to pay attention. attention. AndAnd that’s that’s alsoalso whatwhat I I had had come come to the to Linux the Linux Kongress Kongress in Würzburg in Würzburg to talk to talk about. about. In the In essay the essay I later I later based based on that on that talk,talk, I wrote: I wrote: “Perl“Perl has has beenbeen called called ‘the ‘the ductduct tapetape of the of Internet,’ the Internet,’ and and like like ductduct tape,tape, it is itused is used in allinkinds all kinds

of unexpected of unexpected way website website is often is ofte pu toolstools and and quick quick bu I saw I saw Perl’s Perl’s du foware” foware” paradigm parad information information interf in I described I described it atittha puter puter intointo dynami dyn rather rather than, than, say, sa a bits bits of human of human lang TheThe nextnext partpo obsess obsess me for me the for tween tween whatwhat openops werewere doing doing to Mic to dentdent software software indu When When I had I ha fi IBM’s IBM’s monopoly, monopon twenty twenty yearsyears later.la grated grated computer comput sy coupled. coupled. Creating Creat hardware hardware and and an pendent pendent software softw vendor vendor theythey would w tipletiple hardware hardware arc create create separate separate ver was was much much worse. wor the the customers customers of of a of mainframe a mainfram gr Software Software System Systea maintain maintain moremore tha TheThe IBMIBM Pers all that. all that. In 1980, In 19 microcomputer microcompute m Raton, Raton, Florida, Florida to cision: cision: to cut to costs cut c

preadsheet. a spreadsheet. By By ns essential an essential partpart fatthat content content was was or rn afor next a next stagestage re.” nux operating operating sys-sysows, I was I was particuparticung ming language language in in

87 nd and distributed distributed shed Larry’s Larry’s book, book, nch the Perl the Perl ConCondstart to start the the PerlPerl ts y two by two friends. friends. at yerthe at the Borders Borders on f Programming of Programming nksany in any category category pite this this fact,fact, therethere computer he computer tradetrade trl,was it was virtually virtually

okbook called called Un-Unqually d equally curious. curious. nision commercials commercials /X tive/X would would “ac-“acads werewere actually actually as earclear to me to that me that yway dynamic dynamic webweb

eme some noisenoise about about rst onference conference as a as a t’s that’s alsoalso whatwhat I I bout. k about. has erl has beenbeen called called isedused in allinkinds all kinds

SEEING SEEING THETHE FUTURE FUTURE IN THE IN THE PRESENT PRESENT • 11 • 11

of unexpected of unexpected ways. ways. LikeLike a movie a movie set held set held together together withwith ductduct tape,tape, a a website website is often is often put put up and up and torntorn down down in a in day, a day, and and needs needs lightweight lightweight toolstools and and quick quick but effective but effective solutions.” solutions.” I saw I saw Perl’s Perl’s ductduct tapetape approach approach as an as essential an essential enabler enabler of the of the “in-“infoware” foware” paradigm, paradigm, in which in which control control overover computers computers was was through through an an information information interface, interface, not not a software a software interface interface per per se. A se.web A web link,link, as as I described I described it atitthe at the time, time, was was a way a way to embed to embed commands commands to the to the comcomputer puter intointo dynamic dynamic documents documents written written in ordinary in ordinary human human language, language, rather rather than, than, say, say, a dropa dropdown down software software menu, menu, which which embedded embedded littlelittle bits bits of human of human language language intointo a traditional a traditional software software program. program. TheThe nextnext partpart of the of talk the talk focused focused on aon historical a historical analogy analogy thatthat was was to to obsess obsess me for me the for the nextnext few few years. years. I was I was fascinated fascinated by the by the parallels parallels be- between tween whatwhat openopen source source software software and and the open the open protocols protocols of the of Internet the Internet werewere doing doing to Microsoft to Microsoft and and the the wayway thatthat Microsoft Microsoft and and an indepenan independentdent software software industry industry had had previously previously displaced displaced IBM. IBM. When When I had I had firstfirst entered entered the the industry industry in 1978, in 1978, it was it was shaking shaking off off IBM’s IBM’s monopoly, monopoly, not dissimilar not dissimilar to the to position the position thatthat Microsoft Microsoft occupied occupied twenty twenty yearsyears later.later. IBM’s IBM’s control control overover the the industry industry was was based based on inteon integrated grated computer computer systems systems in which in which software software and and hardware hardware werewere tightly tightly coupled. coupled. Creating Creating a new a new typetype of computer of computer meant meant inventing inventing bothboth newnew hardware hardware and and a new a new operating operating system system to control to control it. What it. What few few indeindependent pendent software software companies companies existed existed had had to choose to choose which which hardware hardware vendor vendor theythey would would be satellite be satellite to, or to,toor“port” to “port” theirtheir software software to multo multipletiple hardware hardware architectures, architectures, much much as phone as phone developers developers today today needneed to to create create separate separate versions versions for iPhone for iPhone and and Android. Android. Except Except the the problem problem was was much much worse. worse. In the In the mid-1980s, mid-1980s, I remember I remember talking talking withwith one one of of the the customers customers of my of my documentation documentation consulting consulting business, business, the the author author of a of mainframe a mainframe graphics graphics library library called called DISSPLA DISSPLA (Display (Display Integrated Integrated Software Software System System and and Plotting Plotting Language). Language). He He toldtold me that me that he had he had to to maintain maintain moremore thanthan 200200 different different versions versions of his of software. his software. TheThe IBMIBM Personal Personal Computer, Computer, released released in August in August 1981, 1981, changed changed all that. all that. In 1980, In 1980, realizing realizing thatthat theythey werewere missing missing out out on the on the newnew microcomputer microcomputer market, market, IBMIBM set up set aupskunkworks a skunkworks project project in Boca in Boca Raton, Raton, Florida, Florida, to develop to develop the new the new machine. machine. They They made made a critical a critical de- decision: cision: to cut to costs cut costs and and accelerate accelerate development development theythey would would develop develop an an

12 • 12WTF? • WTF?

openopen architecture architecture using using industryindustrystandard standard parts— parts— including including software software licensed licensed fromfrom thirdthird parties. parties. TheThe PC,PC, as itaswas it was soonsoon called, called, was was an immediate an immediate hit when hit when it was it was released released in the in the fall fall of 1981. of 1981. IBM’s IBM’s projections projections had had called called for sales for sales of of 250,000 250,000 unitsunits in the in the firstfirst five five years. years. They They werewere rumored rumored to have to have soldsold 40,000 40,000 on the on first the first day ;day within ; within twotwo years, years, moremore thanthan a million a million werewere in in customers’ customers’ hands. hands. However, However, the executives the executives at IBM at IBM failedfailed to understand to understand the full the full conseconsequences quences of their of their decisions. decisions. At the At time, the time, software software was was a small a small player player in the in the computer computer industry, industry, a necessary a necessary but but minor minor partpart of an of integrated an integrated comcomputer, puter, often often bundled bundled rather rather thanthan soldsold separately. separately. So when So when it came it came timetime to provide to provide an operating an operating system system for the for the newnew machine, machine, IBMIBM decided decided to to license license it from it from Microsoft, Microsoft, giving giving them them the the rightright to resell to resell the the software software to the to segment the segment of the of market the market thatthat IBMIBM did did not not control. control. TheThe size size of that of that segment segment was was about about to explode. to explode. Because Because IBMIBM had had published published the the specifications specifications for the for the machine, machine, its success its success was was followed followed by the by development the development of dozens, of dozens, thenthen hundreds hundreds of PCof PCcompatible compatible clones. clones. TheThe barriers barriers to entry to entry to the to the market market werewere so low so low thatthat Michael Michael DellDell builtbuilt his eponymous his eponymous company company while while still still a student a student at the at the University University of Texas, of Texas, assembling assembling and and selling selling computers computers fromfrom his dorm his dorm room. room. TheThe IBMIBM personal personal computer computer architecture architecture became became the the standard, standard, overover timetime displacing displacing not only not only other other personal personal computer computer designs, designs, but,but, overover the next the next twotwo decades, decades, minicomputers minicomputers and and mainframes. mainframes. As cloned As cloned personal personal computers computers werewere builtbuilt by hundreds by hundreds of manufacof manufacturers turers largelarge and and small, small, however, however, IBMIBM lost lost its leadership its leadership in the in the newnew market. market. Software Software became became the the newnew sun sun thatthat the the industry industry revolved revolved around; around; Microsoft Microsoft became became the the mostmost important important company company in the in the comcomputer puter industry. industry. IntelIntel alsoalso forged forged a privileged a privileged role role through through boldbold decision decision making. making. In In order order to ensure to ensure thatthat no one no one supplier supplier became became a choke a choke point, point, IBMIBM had had required required thatthat every every component component in the in PC’s the PC’s openopen hardware hardware architecture architecture be available be available fromfrom at least at least twotwo suppliers. suppliers. IntelIntel had had gonegone along along withwith this this mandate, mandate, licensing licensing theirtheir 80868086 and and 80286 80286 chips chips to rival to rival AMD, AMD, but but in 1985, in 1985, withwith the the release release of the of the 80386 80386 processor, processor, theythey made made the the boldbold decision decision to stand to stand up to upIBM, to IBM, placing placing the the bet bet thatthat the the clone clone market market

was was nownow big big enoue market. market. Former Forme In a vote a vote in the in the five-fip against. against. But But Andy A it anyway.” it anyway.”

That’s That’s another anot

People People make mak it

By 1998, By 1998, the th s its position its position as the as establish establish a monop a mo become become increasing increa barriers barriers to entry to enta single single programme program software software market. mark Open Open source sourso nownow challenging challengit wareware market market werewc it does it does rhyme. rhyme. Users Users could could try theythey could could build buit codecode was was available avail one one didn’t didn’t like like af implement implement it. Ifit.thI adopted adopted widely widely ver What’s What’s more, mo to compete to compete on the on real real problems, problems, the said,said, openopen source sous the distributed the distributed dev by users, by users, openopen sou AndAnd as I as wrote I wrote in m “Evolution “Evolution breeds bre ThatThat diversity diversw

uding ncluding software software

te it when hit when it was it was ed called for sales for sales of of mored d to have to have soldsold million n a million werewere in in

and the full the full conseconsesmall ll player player in the in the ntegrated n integrated comcomwhen n it came it came timetime BM e, IBM decided decided to to ll resell the the software software rol. ause Because IBMIBM had had ccess s was was followed followed mpatible compatible clones. clones. that Michael Michael DellDell the at the University University srm dorm room. room. TheThe tandard, ard, overover timetime t,, but, overover the next the next

ds dreds of manufacof manufachip ership in the in the newnew ustry industry revolved revolved mpany ny in the in the comcom-

ion ecision making. making. In In ke oint, point, IBMIBM had had dware re architecture architecture along ne along withwith this this val o rival AMD, AMD, but but hey made made the the boldbold the clone clone market market

SEEING SEEING THETHE FUTURE FUTURE IN THE IN THE PRESENT PRESENT • 13 • 13

was was nownow big big enough enough thatthat IBM’s IBM’s wishes wishes would would be overridden be overridden by the by the market. market. Former Former IntelIntel CTO CTO Pat Pat Gelsinger Gelsinger toldtold me the me story. the story. “We“We tooktook a vote a vote in the in the five-fiveperson person management management committee. committee. It was It was three three to two to two against. against. But But Andy Andy [Grove, [Grove, Intel’s Intel’s CEO] CEO] was was one one of the of two, the two, so we sodid we did it anyway.” it anyway.” That’s That’s another another lesson lesson about about the the future. future. It doesn’t It doesn’t just just happen. happen. People People make make it happen. it happen. Individual Individual decisions decisions matter. matter.

By 1998, By 1998, the the storystory had had largely largely repeated repeated itself. itself. Microsoft Microsoft had had usedused its position its position as the as the sole sole provider provider of the of the operating operating system system for the for the PC PC to to establish establish a monopoly a monopoly on desktop on desktop software. software. Software Software applications applications had had become become increasingly increasingly complex, complex, withwith Microsoft Microsoft putting putting up deliberate up deliberate barriers barriers to entry to entry against against competitors. competitors. It was It was no longer no longer possible possible for afor a single single programmer programmer or small or small company company to make to make an impact an impact in the in the PC PC software software market. market. Open Open source source software software and and the the openopen protocols protocols of the of the Internet Internet werewere nownow challenging challenging thatthat dominance. dominance. TheThe barriers barriers to entry to entry intointo the the soft-softwareware market market werewere crashing crashing down. down. History History maymay not repeat not repeat itself, itself, but yes, but yes, it does it does rhyme. rhyme. Users Users could could try atry new a new product product for free— for free— and and eveneven moremore thanthan that,that, theythey could could build build theirtheir ownown custom custom version version of it,ofalso it, also for free. for free. Source Source codecode was was available available for massive for massive independent independent peerpeer review, review, and and if someif someone one didn’t didn’t like like a feature, a feature, theythey could could add add to it,tosubtract it, subtract fromfrom it, orit,reor reimplement implement it. Ifit.they If they gavegave theirtheir fix back fix back to the to the community, community, it could it could be be adopted adopted widely widely veryvery quickly. quickly. What’s What’s more, more, because because developers developers (at least (at least initially) initially) weren’t weren’t trying trying to compete to compete on the on the business business end,end, but but instead instead focused focused simply simply on solving on solving real real problems, problems, therethere was was room room for experimentation. for experimentation. As has As has often often beenbeen said,said, openopen source source software software “lets“lets you you scratch scratch youryour ownown itch.” itch.” Because Because of of the distributed the distributed development development paradigm, paradigm, withwith newnew features features being being added added by users, by users, openopen source source programs programs “evolve” “evolve” as much as much as they as they are designed. are designed. AndAnd as I as wrote I wrote in my in 1998 my 1998 paper, paper, “Hardware, “Hardware, Software, Software, and and Infoware,” Infoware,” “Evolution “Evolution breeds breeds not not a single a single winner, winner, but diversity.” but diversity.” ThatThat diversity diversity was was the reason the reason thatthat the seeds the seeds of the of future the future werewere found found

14 • 14WTF? • WTF?

in free in free software software and and the Internet the Internet rather rather thanthan in the in nowthe nowestablishment establishment technologies technologies offered offered by Microsoft. by Microsoft. It is It almost is almost always always the the casecase thatthat if you if you want want to see to see the the future, future, you you havehave to look to look not not at the at the technologies technologies offered offered by the by the mainstream mainstream but but by the by the innovators innovators out out at the at the fringes. fringes.

Most Most of the of the people people whowho launched launched the the personal personal computer computer software software industry industry fourfour decades decades ago ago weren’t weren’t entrepreneurs; entrepreneurs; theythey werewere kidskids to to whom whom the the ideaidea of owning of owning theirtheir ownown computer computer was was absurdly absurdly exciting. exciting. Programming Programming was was like like a drug— a drug— no, it no,was it was better better thanthan a drug, a drug, or joinor joining ing a rock a rock band, band, and and it was it was certainly certainly better better thanthan any any job job theythey could could imagine. imagine. So too So too Linux, Linux, the the openopen source source operating operating system system nownow usedused as a as PC a PC operating operating system system by 90 by million 90 million people, people, and and by billions by billions as the as the operating operating system system on which on which mostmost largelarge Internet Internet sitessites run,run, and and as the as the underlying underlying codecode in every in every Android Android phone. phone. TheThe titletitle of Linus of Linus Torvalds’s Torvalds’s bookbook about about howhow he developed he developed Linux? Linux? Just Just for Fun. for Fun. TheThe World World Wide Wide WebWeb got got its start its start the the samesame way.way. At first, At first, no one no one tooktook it seriously it seriously as a as place a place to make to make money. money. It was It was all about all about the the joy of joy of sharing sharing our our work, work, the the rushrush of clicking of clicking on aon link a link and and connecting connecting withwith another another computer computer halfhalf the the world world away, away, and and constructing constructing similar similar des-destinations tinations for our for our peers. peers. We We werewere all enthusiasts. all enthusiasts. Some Some of usofwere us were alsoalso entrepreneurs. entrepreneurs. To be Tosure, be sure, it is itthose is those entrepreneurs— entrepreneurs— people people like like Bill Bill Gates, Gates, Steve Steve Jobs,Jobs, and and Michael Michael DellDell in the in personal the personal computer computer era; era; Jeff Jeff Bezos, Bezos, Larry Larry Page, Page, Sergey Sergey Brin, Brin, and and Mark Mark Zuckerberg Zuckerberg in the in web the web era— era— whowho saw saw thatthat this this world world driven driven by aby passion a passion for discovery for discovery and and sharing sharing could could become become the cradle the cradle of a of new a new economy. economy. They They found found financial financial backers, backers, shaped shaped the the toy into toy into a tool, a tool, and and builtbuilt the the businesses businesses thatthat turned turned a movement a movement intointo an industry. an industry. TheThe lesson lesson is clear: is clear: Treat Treat curiosity curiosity andand wonder wonder as aas guide a guide to the to the future. future. ThatThat sense sense of wonder of wonder maymay just just mean mean thatthat those those crazy crazy enthusiasts enthusiasts are are seeing seeing something something thatthat you you don’t don’t . . . yet. . . . yet.

TheThe enormous enorm software software was was reﬂer ing business. ing business. PerlPw books books of the of the 19901 could could love— love— Progra Pr and and Bind, Bind, Runnin Run wareware written written by in b TheThe webweb itselfitself had I realized I realized thatt ally ally know know eacheach oth around around Linux Linux did my position my position as aast resolved resolved to bring to brin t of the of same the same story. sto In April In April 1998, 19 Freeware Freeware Summit Sum important important free free sof TheThe timing timin w profile profile webweb comp c browser, browser, had had deci freefree software software pro pressure pressure fromfrom Mi had had given given it away it awf Netscape’s Netscape’s air sup air web’s web’s freefree softwar soft At the At the meeting mee the the Garden Garden Court C Brian Brian Behlendorf Behlend project), project), Larry Larry W programming programming lang Mozilla Mozilla project), projecE CEO CEO of Cygnus of CygnS software software programm progr of BIND of BIND [Berkel [Be

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t yet. . . . yet.

SEEING SEEING THETHE FUTURE FUTURE IN THE IN THE PRESENT PRESENT • 15 • 15

TheThe enormous enormous diversity diversity of software of software thatthat had had grown grown up around up around free free software software was was reﬂected reﬂected in the in the bestselling bestselling books books thatthat drove drove my publishmy publishing business. ing business. PerlPerl wasn’t wasn’t alone. alone. Many Many of the of most the most successful successful technology technology books books of the of the 1990s, 1990s, books books I published I published withwith names names onlyonly a programmer a programmer could could love— love— Programming Programming Perl,Perl, Learning Learning the Vi theEditor, Vi Editor, Sed & SedAwk, & Awk, DNSDNS and and Bind, Bind, Running Running Linux, Linux, Programming Programming Python— Python— werewere all about all about soft-softwareware written written by individuals by individuals and and distributed distributed freely freely overover the the Internet. Internet. TheThe webweb itselfitself had had beenbeen put put intointo the public the public domain. domain. I realized I realized thatthat many many of the of the authors authors of these of these programs programs didn’t didn’t actuactually ally know know eacheach other. other. TheThe free free software software community community thatthat had had coalesced coalesced around around Linux Linux didn’t didn’t mixmix much much withwith the the Internet Internet crowd. crowd. Because Because of of my position my position as aastechnology a technology publisher, publisher, I traveled I traveled in both in both circles. circles. So ISo I resolved resolved to bring to bring them them together. together. They They needed needed to see to themselves see themselves as part as part of the of same the same story. story. In April In April 1998, 1998, I organized I organized an event an event thatthat I originally I originally called called “the“the Freeware Freeware Summit” Summit” to bring to bring together together the the creators creators of many of many of the of the mostmost important important free free software software programs. programs. TheThe timing timing was was perfect. perfect. In January, In January, Marc Marc Andreessen’s Andreessen’s highhighprofile profile webweb company, company, Netscape, Netscape, builtbuilt to commercialize to commercialize the the webweb browser, browser, had had decided decided to provide to provide the the source source codecode to its to browser its browser as aas a freefree software software project project using using the the name name Mozilla. Mozilla. Under Under competitive competitive pressure pressure fromfrom Microsoft, Microsoft, which which had had builtbuilt a browser a browser of its of own its own and and had had given given it away it away for free for free (but(but without without source source code) code) in order in order to “cut to “cut off off Netscape’s Netscape’s air supply,” air supply,” Netscape Netscape had had no choice no choice but but to go to back go back to the to the web’s web’s freefree software software roots. roots. At the At the meeting, meeting, which which was was heldheld at the at the Stanford Stanford Court Court Hotel Hotel (now(now the the Garden Garden Court) Court) in Palo in Palo Alto, Alto, I brought I brought together together Linus Linus Torvalds, Torvalds, Brian Brian Behlendorf Behlendorf (one(one of the of the founders founders of the of the Apache Apache webweb server server project), project), Larry Larry Wall, Wall, Guido Guido van van Rossum Rossum (the(the creator creator of the of the Python Python programming programming language), language), Jamie Jamie Zawinski Zawinski (the(the chiefchief developer developer of the of the Mozilla Mozilla project), project), EricEric Raymond, Raymond, Michael Michael Tiemann Tiemann (the(the founder founder and and CEO CEO of Cygnus of Cygnus Solutions, Solutions, a company a company thatthat was was commercializing commercializing free free software software programming programming tools), tools), PaulPaul Vixie Vixie (the(the author author and and maintainer maintainer of BIND of BIND [Berkeley [Berkeley Internet Internet Name Name Daemon], Daemon], the the software software behind behind

16 • 16WTF? • WTF?

the the Internet Internet Domain Domain Name Name System), System), and and EricEric Allman Allman (the(the author author of of Sendmail, Sendmail, the software the software thatthat routed routed a majority a majority of the of Internet’s the Internet’s email). email). At the At the meeting, meeting, one one of the of the topics topics thatthat came came up was up was the the name name free free software. software. Richard Richard Stallman’s Stallman’s free free software software movement movement had had created created many many enemies enemies withwith its seemingly its seemingly radical radical proposition proposition thatthat all software all software source source codecode mustmust be given be given awayaway freely— freely— because because it was it was immoral immoral to do to otherdo otherwise.wise. EvenEven worse, worse, many many people people had had taken taken free free software software to mean to mean thatthat its its developers developers werewere hostile hostile to commercial to commercial use.use. At the At meeting, the meeting, Linus Linus Tor-Torvaldsvalds remarked, remarked, “I didn’t “I didn’t realize realize thatthat free had free had twotwo meanings meanings in English: in English: ‘libre’ ‘libre’ and and ‘gratis.’ ‘gratis.’ ” ” Linus Linus wasn’t wasn’t the only the only one one whowho had had different different notions notions about about whatwhat free free meant. meant. In aIn separate a separate meeting, meeting, KirkKirk McKusick, McKusick, the head the head of the of Berkeley the Berkeley UnixUnix project, project, which which had had developed developed many many of the of the key key UnixUnix features features and and utilities utilities thatthat had had beenbeen incorporated incorporated intointo Linux, Linux, had had toldtold me: me: “Richard “Richard Stallman Stallman likeslikes to say to that say that copyright copyright is evil, is evil, so we so need we need this this newnew con-construct struct called called copyleft. copyleft. HereHere at Berkeley at Berkeley we use we use copycentral— copycentral— thatthat is, is, we tell we people tell people to gotodown go down to Copy to Copy Central Central [the[the locallocal photocopy photocopy shop] shop] and and copycopy it.” The it.” The Berkeley Berkeley UnixUnix project, project, which which had had provided provided my own my own introduction introduction to the to the operating operating system system in 1983, in 1983, was was partpart of the of the longlong ac- academic ademic tradition tradition of knowledge of knowledge sharing. sharing. Source Source codecode was was given given awayaway so so people people could could build build on it, onand it, and thatthat included included commercial commercial use.use. TheThe onlyonly requirement requirement was was attribution. attribution. BobBob Scheiﬂer, Scheiﬂer, director director of MIT’s of MIT’s X Window X Window System System project, project, fol- followed lowed the the samesame philosophy. philosophy. TheThe X Window X Window System System had had beenbeen started started in 1984, in 1984, and and by the by time the time I encountered I encountered it init1987, in 1987, it was it was becoming becoming the the standard standard window window system system for Unix for Unix and and Linux, Linux, adopted adopted and and adapted adapted by by virtually virtually every every vendor. vendor. My My company company developed developed a series a series of programming of programming manuals manuals for Xforthat X that usedused the MIT the MIT specifications specifications as a as base, a base, rewriting rewriting and and expanding expanding them, them, and and thenthen licensed licensed them them to companies to companies shipping shipping newnew UnixUnix and and X-based X-based systems. systems. BobBob encouraged encouraged me. me. “That’s “That’s exactly exactly whatwhat we want we want companies companies to do,” to do,” he said. he said. “We’re “We’re laying laying a foundation, a foundation, and and we we wantwant everyone everyone to build to build on it.” on it.” Larry Larry Wall, Wall, creator creator of Perl, of Perl, was was another another of my of mentors my mentors in how in how to to think think about about free free software. software. When When I asked I asked himhim whywhy he had he had made made PerlPerl free free software, software, he explained he explained thatthat he had he had gotten gotten so much so much value value fromfrom the the

workwork of others of others tha alsoalso quoted quoted to me to saying, saying, “Informati “Inform valuable.” valuable.” LikeLike m eredered thatthat one one wayw valuable valuable was was to giv to for himself for himself (becaus (be ments ments thatthat he cou he as software as software becom be foundation foundation for fur for Nonetheless, Nonetheles it ators, ators, including includin th free free software software advoa theirtheir information informativ atedated enormous enormous val enabler enabler of ubiquito of ubiq global global computing comput I saw I saw thatthat Larr As the As the creators creator (al tellectual tellectual work, work th maximize maximize its value its v work. work. TheThe questio que ationation for society, for societ r company. company. What Wha w was was a better a better strateg st ThisThis question quest reer:reer: HowHow can can a bu itself? itself?

WHAT’S WHAT’S IN AINNA A

As we As wrestled we wrestle w proposed. proposed. Michae Mic termterm sourceware. sourcewar B thatthat had had beenbeen coin

man (the(the author author of of ernet’s Internet’s email). email). was the the name name free free dt had created created many many all oftware software source source moral al to do to otherdo otherare o mean to mean thatthat its its ng, eeting, Linus Linus Tor-Torngs anings in English: in English:

ons about about whatwhat free free ead of the of Berkeley the Berkeley ixUnix features features and and dtold me: me: “Richard “Richard eed this this newnew con-conpycentral— ntral—thatthat is, is, hotocopy al photocopy shop] shop] vided provided my own my own of artthe of the longlong ac- acwas given given awayaway so so rcial use.use. TheThe onlyonly

m ystem project, project, fol- folmd had beenbeen started started was becoming becoming the the and ed and adapted adapted by by esprogramming of programming base, , rewriting rewriting and and nies shipping shipping newnew That’s ’s exactly exactly whatwhat dation, oundation, and and we we

mentors tors in how in how to to had he had made made PerlPerl uch value value fromfrom the the

SEEING SEEING THETHE FUTURE FUTURE IN THE IN THE PRESENT PRESENT • 17 • 17

workwork of others of others thatthat he felt he an feltobligation an obligation to give to give something something back. back. Larry Larry alsoalso quoted quoted to me to me a variation a variation of Stewart of Stewart Brand’s Brand’s classic classic observation, observation, saying, saying, “Information “Information doesn’t doesn’t wantwant to betofree. be free. Information Information wants wants to beto be valuable.” valuable.” LikeLike many many other other free free software software authors, authors, Larry Larry had had discovdiscoveredered thatthat one one wayway to make to make his information his information (that(that is, his is, software) his software) moremore valuable valuable was was to give to give it away. it away. He was He was ableable to increase to increase its utility its utility not not onlyonly for himself for himself (because (because others others whowho tooktook it upitmade up made changes changes and and enhanceenhancements ments thatthat he could he could use),use), but but for everyone for everyone else else whowho usesuses it, because it, because as software as software becomes becomes moremore ubiquitous ubiquitous it can it can be taken be taken for granted for granted as aas a foundation foundation for further for further work. work. Nonetheless, Nonetheless, it was it was alsoalso clearclear to me to that me that proprietary proprietary software software cre-creators, ators, including including those, those, suchsuch as Microsoft, as Microsoft, whowho werewere regarded regarded by most by most free free software software advocates advocates as immoral, as immoral, had had found found thatthat theythey could could make make theirtheir information information valuable valuable by restricting by restricting access access to it.toMicrosoft it. Microsoft had had cre-createdated enormous enormous value value for itself for itself and and its shareholders, its shareholders, but it but was it was alsoalso a keya key enabler enabler of ubiquitous of ubiquitous personal personal computing, computing, a necessary a necessary precursor precursor to the to the global global computing computing networks networks of today. of today. ThatThat was was value value for all forofallsociety. of society. I saw I saw thatthat Larry Larry WallWall and and Bill Bill Gates Gates had had a great a great dealdeal in common. in common. As the As the creators creators (albeit (albeit withwith a host a host of coof contributors) co-contributors) of a of body a body of inof intellectual tellectual work, work, theythey had had made made strategic strategic decisions decisions about about howhow bestbest to to maximize maximize its value. its value. History History has has proven proven thatthat eacheach of their of their strategies strategies can can work. work. TheThe question question for me for became me became one one of how of how to maximize to maximize value value cre- creationation for society, for society, rather rather thanthan simply simply value value capture capture by an byindividual an individual or aor a company. company. What What werewere the conditions the conditions under under which which giving giving software software awayaway was was a better a better strategy strategy thanthan keeping keeping it proprietary? it proprietary? ThisThis question question has has recurred, recurred, everever moremore broadly, broadly, throughout throughout my camy career:reer: HowHow can can a business a business create create moremore value value for society for society thanthan it captures it captures for for itself? itself? WHAT’S WHAT’S IN AINNAME? A NAME?

As we As wrestled we wrestled withwith the the name name free free software, software, various various alternatives alternatives werewere proposed. proposed. Michael Michael Tiemann Tiemann saidsaid thatthat Cygnus Cygnus had had begun begun using using the the termterm sourceware. sourceware. But But EricEric Raymond Raymond argued argued for open for open source, source, a new a new termterm thatthat had had beenbeen coined coined onlyonly six weeks six weeks earlier earlier by Christine by Christine Peterson Peterson of of

18 • 18WTF? • WTF?

the Foresight the Foresight Institute, Institute, a nanotechnology a nanotechnology think think tank, tank, at a at meeting a meeting con-convened vened by Larry by Larry Augustin, Augustin, the the CEO CEO of aofLinux a Linux company company called called VA VA Linux Linux Systems. Systems. EricEric and and another another software software developer developer and and free free software software activist, activist, Bruce Bruce Perens, Perens, had had beenbeen so excited so excited about about Christine’s Christine’s newnew termterm thatthat theythey had had formed formed a nonprofit a nonprofit organization organization called called the Open the Open Source Source Initiative Initiative to reconcile to reconcile the various the various free free software software licenses licenses thatthat werewere being being usedused intointo a kind a kind of metalicense. of metalicense. But But as ofasyet, of yet, the term the term was was largely largely unknown. unknown. NotNot everyone everyone likedliked it. “Sounds it. “Sounds too much too much like like ‘open ‘open sores,’ sores,’ ” one” one par-participant ticipant commented. commented. But But we all weagreed all agreed thatthat therethere werewere serious serious problems problems withwith the name the name free software free software and and thatthat widewide adoption adoption of a of new a new name name could could be an beimportant an important stepstep forward. forward. So we So put we put it toita to vote. a vote. OpenOpen source source wonwon handily handily overover sourceware sourceware and and we all we agreed all agreed to use to use the the newnew termterm going going forward. forward. It was It was an important an important moment, moment, because because at the at the end end of the of the day day I’d arI’d arranged ranged a press a press conference conference withwith reporters reporters fromfrom the New the New YorkYork Times, Times, WallWall Street Street Journal, Journal, San San Jose Jose Mercury Mercury News News (at the (at the timetime the the dailydaily paper paper of of Silicon Silicon Valley), Valley), Fortune, Fortune, Forbes, Forbes, and and many many other other national national publications. publications. Because Because I’d earlier I’d earlier builtbuilt relationships relationships withwith many many of these of these reporters reporters dur-during my ing time my time in the in early the early 1990s 1990s promoting promoting the commercialization the commercialization of the of the Internet, Internet, theythey showed showed up even up even though though theythey didn’t didn’t know know whatwhat the news the news was was going going to be. to be. I lined I lined up the up the participants participants in front in front of the of the assembled assembled reporters reporters and and toldtold a story a story thatthat nonenone of them of them had had heard heard before. before. It went It went something something like like this:this:

thon, thon, written writte by you you sendsend email, em ten by tenEric by Eric Allm you’ve you’ve all heard all h AndAnd here’s hert nantnant market marke sh without without any an ve company company behin b software software and an g helphelp them them build Because Because free name, name, we’ve we’v al a new a new name: nam op

OverOver the next the ne c I explained I explained thattha al tureture werewere “open “ope so many many of the of the initia in cepted cepted wisdom, wisdom th was was originally originally calle as “The as “The Open Open Sou

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When When you you hearhear the the termterm free free software, software, you you think think thatthat it’s ait’srebel a rebel movement movement thatthat is hostile is hostile to commercial to commercial software. software. I’m I’m herehere to tell to tell you you thatthat every every big company— big company— including including youryour own— own— already already usesuses free free software software every every day.day. If your If your company company has has an Internet an Internet domain domain name— name— say nytimes.com say nytimes.com or wsj.com or wsj.com or fortune.com— or fortune.com— thatthat name name onlyonly works works because because of BIND, of BIND, the software the software written written by this by this man— man— PaulPaul Vixie. Vixie. TheThe webweb server server you you use is use probably is probably Apache, Apache, created created by by a team a team co-founded co-founded by Brian by Brian Behlendorf, Behlendorf, sitting sitting here.here. ThatThat website website alsoalso makes makes heavy heavy use of useprogramming of programming languages languages like like PerlPerl and and Py- Py-

Linux Linux andand the tI

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